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Modeling Phenological Controls on Carbon Dynamics in Dryland Sagebrush Ecosystems

Dryland ecosystems play an important role in determining how precipitation anomalies affect terrestrial carbon fluxes at regional to global scales. Thus, to understand how climate change may affect the global carbon cycle, we must also be able to understand and model its effects on dryland vegetation. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are an important tool for modeling ecosystem dynamics, but they often struggle to reproduce seasonal patterns of plant productivity. Because the phenological niche of many plant species is linked to both total productivity and competitive interactions with other plants, errors in how process-based models represent phenology hinder our ability to predict climate change impacts. This may be particularly problematic in dryland ecosystems where many species have developed a complex phenology in response to seasonal variability in both moisture and temperature. Here, we examine how uncertainty in key parameters as well as the structure of existing phenology routines affect the ability of a DGVM to match seasonal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) across a temperature and precipitation gradient. First, we optimized model parameters using a combination of site-level eddy covariance data and remotely-sensed LAI data. Second, we modified the model to include a semi-deciduous phenology type and added flexibility to the representation of grass phenology. While optimizing parameters reduced model bias, the largest gains in model performance were associated with the development of our new representation of phenology. This modified model was able to better capture seasonal patterns of both leaf area index (R(exp 2) = 0.75) and gross primary productivity (R(exp 2) = 0.84), though its ability to estimate total annual GPP depended on using eddy covariance data for optimization. The new model also resulted in a more realistic outcome of modeled competition between grass and shrubs. These findings demonstrate the importance of improving how DGVMs represent phenology in order to accurately forecast climate change impacts in dryland ecosystems.

Ecosystem model↗

Modeling Phenological Controls on Carbon Dynamics in Dryland Sagebrush Ecosystems

Dryland ecosystems play an important role in determining how precipitation anomalies affect terrestrial carbonfluxes at regional to global scales. Thus, to understand how climate change may affect the global carbon cycle,we must also be able to understand and model its effects on dryland vegetation. Dynamic Global VegetationModels (DGVMs) are an important tool for modeling ecosystem dynamics, but they often struggle to reproduceseasonal patterns of plant productivity. Because the phenological niche of many plant species is linked to bothtotal productivity and competitive interactions with other plants, errors in how process-based models representphenology hinder our ability to predict climate change impacts. This may be particularly problematic in drylandecosystems where many species have developed a complex phenology in response to seasonal variability in bothmoisture and temperature. Here, we examine how uncertainty in key parameters as well as the structure ofexisting phenology routines affect the ability of a DGVM to match seasonal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) andgross primary productivity (GPP) across a temperature and precipitation gradient. First, we optimized modelparameters using a combination of site-level eddy covariance data and remotely-sensed LAI data. Second, wemodified the model to include a semi-deciduous phenology type and added flexibility to the representation ofgrass phenology. While optimizing parameters reduced model bias, the largest gains in model performance wereassociated with the development of our new representation of phenology. This modified model was able to bettercapture seasonal patterns of both leaf area index (R2=0.75) and gross primary productivity (R2=0.84), thoughits ability to estimate total annual GPP depended on using eddy covariance data for optimization. The new modelalso resulted in a more realistic outcome of modeled competition between grass and shrubs. These findingsdemonstrate the importance of improving how DGVMs represent phenology in order to accurately forecastclimate change impacts in dryland ecosystems.

Ecosystem model Phenology Parameter optimization E↗

Critical Soil Moisture Thresholds of Plant Water Stress in Terrestrial Ecosystems

Plant water stress occurs at the point when soil moisture (SM) limits transpiration, defining a critical SM threshold (θ crit ). Knowledge of the spatial distribution of θ crit is crucial for future projections of climate and water resources. Here, we use global eddy covariance observations to quantify θcrit and evaporative fraction (EF) regimes. Three canonical variables describe how EF is controlled by SM: the maximum EF (EF max ), θ crit , and slope (S) between EF and SM. We find systematic differences of these three variables across biomes. Variation in θ crit , S, and EFmax is mostly explained by soil texture, vapor pressure deficit, and precipitation, respectively, as well as vegetation structure. Dryland ecosystems tend to operate at low θ crit and show adaptation to water deficits. The negative relationship between θ crit and S indicates that dryland ecosystems minimize θcrit through mechanisms of sustained SM extraction and transport by xylem. Our results further suggest an optimal adaptation of local EF-SM response that maximizes growing-season evapotranspiration and photosynthesis.

Zheng Fu↗

Adaptation and Response in Drylands (ARID): A Dryland Research Agenda and Campaign Strategy

Dryland ecosystems cover 41% of Earth’s land surfaces, account for 44% of cultivated lands and 60% of food sources, and make large contributions to the global water and carbon cycles. However, these ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented extremes including heatwaves, floods, and droughts as well as hotter temperatures and often declining water resource availability. These ecosystems are some of the most challenging to monitor given their high temporal variability with rapid response to their environment as well as vast spatial variability with intermixing of different plant species and life forms amongst bare soil coverage. The Adaptation and Response in Drylands (ARID) campaign was selected by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) as a scoping study to develop a research agenda for a dryland field campaign. Here, we detail our ARID science research agenda and implementation plan that were developed based on an extensive community engagement effort in over 160 events with over a thousand scientists, land managers, and Tribal communities between 2023 and 2024. The selected science themes cover drought and climate variability, ecosystem structure, function, and biodiversity, carbon cycle interannual variability and trends, and social ecological systems (land management and adaptation). We then detail our remote sensing, modeling, and field-based strategies to capture high temporal and high spatial resolution processes. Finally, our implementation strategy is presented which includes focus area selections in a core intensive western U.S. domain and distributed international domains. This strategy includes our overarching guiding principles of using multi-temporal airborne acquisitions and super sites as well as enhancing land management in co-development with end-user partners. While originally developed for NASA, our ARID report creates a blueprint for any future dryland field campaign, at any scale, that can be implemented widely for foundational and applied science objectives.

drylands↗

Synergistic Use of SMAP and OCO-2 Data in Assessing the Responses of Ecosystem Productivity to the 2018 U.S. Drought

Soil moisture and gross primary productivity (GPP) estimates from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) provide new opportunities for understanding the relationship between soil moisture and terrestrial photosynthesis over large regions. Here we explored the potential of the synergistic use of SMAP and OCO-2 based data for monitoring the responses of ecosystem productivity to drought. We used complementary observational information on root-zone soil moisture and GPP (9 km) from SMAP and fine-resolution SIF (0.05°; GOSIF) derived from OCO-2 SIF soundings. We compared the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of anomalies of these variables over the conterminous U.S. during the 2018 drought, and examined to what extent they could characterize the drought-induced variations of flux tower GPP and crop yield data. Our results showed that SMAP GPP and GOSIF could well capture the spatial extent and dynamics of drought indicated by the U.S. Drought Monitor maps and the SMAP root-zone soil moisture deficit. Over the U.S. Southwest, monthly anomalies of soil moisture showed significant positive correlations with those of SMAP GPP (R2=0.44, p<0.001) and GOSIF (R2=0.76, p<0.001), demonstrating strong water availability constraints on plant productivity across dryland ecosystems. We further found that SMAP GPP and GOSIF captured the impact of drought on tower GPP and crop yield. Our results suggest that synergistic use of SMAP and OCO-2 data products can reveal the drought evolution and its impact on ecosystem productivity and carbon uptake at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and demonstrate the value of SMAP and OCO-2 for studying ecosystem function, carbon cycling, and climate change.

Soil Moisture Active Passive↗

Sub-Continental-Scale Carbon Stocks of Individual Trees in African Drylands

The distribution of dryland trees and their density, cover, size, mass and carbon content are not well known at sub-continental to continental scales. This information is important for ecological protection, carbon accounting, climate mitigation and restoration efforts of dryland ecosystems. We assessed more than 9.9 billion trees derived from more than 300,000 satellite images, covering semi-arid sub-Saharan Africa north of the Equator. We attributed wood, foliage and root carbon to every tree in the 0–1,000 mm year −1 rainfall zone by coupling field data, machine learning, satellite data and high-performance computing. Average carbon stocks of individual trees ranged from 0.54 Mg C ha −1 and 63 kg C tree −1 in the arid zone to 3.7 Mg C ha −1 and 98 kg tree −1 in the sub-humid zone. Overall, we estimated the total carbon for our study area to be 0.84 (±19.8%) Pg C. Comparisons with 14 previous TRENDY numerical simulation studies23 for our area found that the density and carbon stocks of scattered trees have been underestimated by three models and overestimated by 11 models, respectively. This benchmarking can help understand the carbon cycle and address concerns about land degradation. We make available a linked database of wood mass, foliage mass, root mass and carbon stock of each tree for scientists, policymakers, dryland-restoration practitioners and farmers, who can use it to estimate farmland tree carbon stocks from tablets or laptops.

Compton Tucker↗

Changes in Rainfall Distribution Promote Woody Foliage Production in the Sahel

Dryland ecosystems comprise a balance between woody and herbaceous vegetation. Climate change impacts rainfall timing, which may alter the respective contributions of woody and herbaceous plants on the total vegetation production. Here, we apply 30 years of field-measured woody foliage and herbaceous mass from Senegal and document a faster increase in woody foliage mass (+17 kg ha−1 yr−1) as compared to herbaceous mass (+3 kg ha−1 yr−1). Annual rainfall trends were partitioned into core wet-season rains (+0.7 mm yr-1), supporting a weak but periodic (5-year cycles) increase in herbaceous mass, and early/late rains (+2.1 mm yr−1), explaining the strongly increased woody foliage mass. Satellite observations confirm these findings for the majority of the Sahel, with total herbaceous/woody foliage mass increases by 6%/20%. We conclude that the rainfall recovery in the Sahel does not benefit herbaceous vegetation to the same extent as woody vegetation, presumably favoured by increased early/late rains.

Martin Brandt↗

Adaptation to environmental extremes structures functional traits in biological soil crust and hypolithic microbial communities

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are widespread in drylands and deserts. At the microhabitat scale, they also host hypolithic communities that live under semi-translucent stones. Both environmental niches experience exposure to extreme conditions such as high UV radiation, desiccation, temperature fluctuations, and resource limitation. However, hypolithic communities are somewhat protected from extremes relative to biocrust communities. Conditions are otherwise similar, so comparing them can answer outstanding questions regarding adaptations to environmental extremes. Using metagenomic sequencing, we assessed the functional potential of dryland soil communities and identified the functional underpinnings of ecological niche differentiation in biocrusts versus hypoliths. We also determined the effect of the anchoring photoautotroph (moss or cyanobacteria). Genes and pathways differing in abundance between biocrusts and hypoliths indicate that biocrust communities adapt to the higher levels of UV radiation, desiccation, and temperature extremes through an increased ability to repair damaged DNA, sense and respond to environmental stimuli, and interact with other community members and the environment. Intracellular competition appears to be crucial to both communities, with biocrust communities waging war using the Type VI Secretion System (T6SS) and hypoliths favoring diversity of antibiotics. The dominant primary producer had a reduced effect on community functional potential compared with niche, but an abundance of genes related to monosaccharide, amino acid, and osmoprotectant uptake in moss-dominated communities indicates reliance on resources provided to heterotrophs by mosses. Our findings indicate that functional traits in dryland communities are driven by adaptations to extremes and we identify strategies that likely enable survival in dryland ecosystems.

Biological soil crusts↗

Ecosystem Impacts of Woody Encroachment In Texas: A Spatial Analysis Using AVIRIS

Woody encroachment, the increase of woody plant density relative to herbaceous vegetation, has been documented in drylands of Texas as well as worldwide (Archer 1994, Harrington and Harman 1995, Moleele et al. 2002). Over-grazing, fire suppression and climate change are implicated in the shift from open grasslands to ecosystems now populated by trees and shrubs (Scholes and Archer 1997, Archer et al. 2001), such as Prosopis glandulosa var. glandulosa (honey mesquite) in north Texas (Teague et al. 1997, Ansley et al. 2001, Asner et al. 2003a). Several studies have examined changes in ecosystem properties accompanying woody vegetation encroachment in the Southwest U.S., with research focused on increases in plant and soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) stores (Hoffman and Jackson 2000, Asner et al. 2003a), isotopic shifts in these pools (Boutton 1999, Archer et al. 2001), and increases in N cycling rates (Rundel et al. 1982, Hibbard et al. 2001). However, little is known regarding the impact of woody encroachment on N trace gas emissions from dryland regions such as Texas. NOx is produced in the soil during the processes of nitrification and denitrification (Firestone and Davidson 1989). The total N efflux from soils is most directly influenced by the internal cycling of N, which at a regionalscale, is controlled by the inputs and availability of N from vegetation via litterfall and subsequent decomposition (Robertson et al. 1989). Although plot-scale studies are critical to understanding controls over N oxide emissions, regionalization of the measurements is impeded by spatial variation in the factors contributing most to N cycling processes: soil properties (affecting soil moisture regimes and N stocks) and vegetation cover (affecting litter inputs and N uptake). While broad patterns in ecosystem structure and vegetation composition co-vary with general patterns of trace gas emissions (Matson 1997), there is no easily measured index of N availability that can be applied for regional-scale studies of N oxide fluxes. Remote sensing is arguably the only approach available to develop a spatially-explicit understanding of ecosystem processes. More specifically, remotely detectable spatial patterns in the distal controls over soil N properties, such as vegetation cover, land use and soil type (Robertson et al. 1989), should be exploited for regional studies of N oxide emissions. The woody encroachment phenomenon provides an opportunity to test the strength of the relationship between N oxide emissions and those factors controlling the fluxes that can be remotely measured. If such linkages can be firmly established, and if the spatial pattern of distal controls is relevant, then the combination of field measurements and remote sensing offers to improve regional-scale N oxide estimates. The paper presents the utility of linking field based sampling of soil NOx emissions with very high resolution remote sensing estimates of woody vegetation cover from the NASA AVIRIS, Airborne Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (Green et al. 1998, Asner and Green 2001) and automated spectral mixture analysis (Asner and Lobell 2000, Asner and Heidebrecht 2002) that provide a means to spatially extrapolate soil NOx emissions to the regional scale.

Martin, Roberta E.↗

Environmental Assessments in the Riparian Corridor of the Colorado River Delta

We will develop remote sensing methods to conduct environmental assessments in the riparian corridor of the Colorado River delta, shared by the United States and Mexico. This important regional ecosystem is dependent upon US water flows, yet the most important wildlife habitats are in Mexico. The delta region is poorly known and difficult to monitor on the ground. We will use ground-validated, aerial and satellite methods to develop accurate vegetation and habitat maps and predictive hydrological and vegetation models of this ecosystem in response to US flood releases. The work products will advance our understanding of water resource issues in dryland climates and provide a specific application tool for a critical binational natural resource area.

Source record↗

Precipitation and Carbon-Water Coupling Jointly Control the Interannual Variability of Global Land Gross Primary Production

Carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is increasing along with the rising of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Embedded in this trend, recent studies suggested that the interannual variability (IAV) of global carbon fluxes may be dominated by semi-arid ecosystems, but the underlying mechanisms of this high variability in these specific regions are not well known. Here we derive an ensemble of gross primary production (GPP) estimates using the average of three data-driven models and eleven process-based models. These models are weighted by their spatial representativeness of the satellite-based solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF). We then use this weighted GPP ensemble to investigate the GPP variability for different aridity regimes. We show that semi-arid regions contribute to 57% of the detrended IAV of global GPP. Moreover, in regions with higher GPP variability, GPP fluctuations are mostly controlled by precipitation and strongly coupled with evapotranspiration (ET). This higher GPP IAV in semi-arid regions is co-limited by supply (precipitation)-induced ET variability and GPP-ET coupling strength. Our results demonstrate the importance of semi-arid regions to the global terrestrial carbon cycle and posit that there will be larger GPP and ET variations in the future with changes in precipitation patterns and dryland expansion.

chlorophyll fluorescence↗

Assessing Woody Vegetation Trends in Sahelian Drylands Using MODIS Based Seasonal Metrics

Woody plants play a major role for the resilience of drylands and in peoples' livelihoods. However, due to their scattered distribution, quantifying and monitoring woody cover over space and time is challenging. We develop a phenology driven model and train/validate MODIS (MCD43A4, 500m) derived metrics with 178 ground observations from Niger, Senegal and Mali to estimate woody cover trends from 2000 to 2014 over the entire Sahel. The annual woody cover estimation at 500 m scale is fairly accurate with an RMSE of 4.3 (woody cover %) and r(exp 2) = 0.74. Over the 15 year period we observed an average increase of 1.7 (+/- 5.0) woody cover (%) with large spatial differences: No clear change can be observed in densely populated areas (0.2 +/- 4.2), whereas a positive change is seen in sparsely populated areas (2.1 +/- 5.2). Woody cover is generally stable in cropland areas (0.9 +/- 4.6), reflecting the protective management of parkland trees by the farmers. Positive changes are observed in savannas (2.5 +/- 5.4) and woodland areas (3.9 +/- 7.3). The major pattern of woody cover change reveals strong increases in the sparsely populated Sahel zones of eastern Senegal, western Mali and central Chad, but a decreasing trend is observed in the densely populated western parts of Senegal, northern Nigeria, Sudan and southwestern Niger. This decrease is often local and limited to woodlands, being an indication of ongoing expansion of cultivated areas and selective logging.We show that an overall positive trend is found in areas of low anthropogenic pressure demonstrating the potential of these ecosystems to provide services such as carbon storage, if not over-utilized. Taken together, our results provide an unprecedented synthesis of woody cover dynamics in theSahel, and point to land use and human population density as important drivers, however only partially and locally offsetting a general post-drought increase.

Brandt, Martin↗