Towards robust and scalable dispatch modeling of long-duration energy storage
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Guerra, Omar J.↗
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Cyclic moisture reactivation of calcium sorbents for long duration thermochemical energy storage
The transition to a flexible and reliable energy infrastructure, using electro-thermal energy generation technologies such as geothermal, concentrated solar power, and nuclear, usually demands simultaneous advancement of thermal energy storage (TES) to support on-demand electricity generation and industrial applications while mitigating the inherent intermittency of renewable energy sources and power outages from direct energy generation. Among TES technologies, thermochemical energy storage (TCES) based on calcium looping emerges as a compelling high-power energy storage candidate due to its high reaction enthalpy, compatibility with elevated operating temperatures, and abundance of low-cost materials. However, the long-term durability of calcium-based sorbents for TCES is hindered by surface sintering and particle aggregation, leading to performance degradation over repeated thermal cycles. This study explores a moisture hydration-based strategy to regenerate a degraded calcium sorbent and mitigate performance degradation for long duration TCES. The addition of moisture transforms calcium oxide into calcium hydroxide and produces intercalation water layers, associated with a regenerated surface area and reduced calcium oxide crystallite size. Both these effects are beneficial in restoring the sorbents' reactivity for carbonization. Additionally, an optimized hydration-assisted reactivation protocol balances the recovered energy storage capacity with heating penalty required for moisture removal from hydrated samples, resulting in an enhanced energy storage capacity up to 176% compared to benchmark sorbents that undergo cycling without reactivation after 60 cycles. In conclusion, these results highlight the potential of hydration-assisted reactivation to enhance the long-term performance of TCES, providing an effective pathway to advancing electro-thermal storage technologies.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Exploring the Future Energy Value of Long-Duration Energy Storage
Long-duration energy storage is commonly viewed as a key technology for providing flexibility to the grid and broader energy systems over a multidecadal time frame. However, prior work has typically used present-day grid infrastructures to characterize the relationship between the duration and arbitrage value of storage in electricity markets. This study leverages established National Renewable Energy Laboratory grid planning and operations tools, analysis, and data to execute a price-taker model of an energy storage system for several 8760 h price series representative of current and future contiguous United States grid infrastructures with varying shares of variable renewable energy (VRE). We find that the total value of energy storage typically increases with VRE shares, but any increase in the relative value of longer storage durations over time depends on the region and grid mix. Some regions see incremental value increasing notably, up to 20–40 h in 2050, while others do not. The negative effect of lower roundtrip efficiency on value is also found to be scenario-dependent, with the energy value in higher VRE scenarios being less sensitive to roundtrip efficiency and more supportive of longer storage durations. Long-duration storage value and deployment potential are a function of evolving electricity sector infrastructure, markets, and policy, making it critical to consistently revisit potential long-duration storage contributions to the grid.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Using time reversal with long duration broadband noise signals to achieve high amplitude and a desired spectrum at a target location
Time Reversal (TR) is a signal processing technique that can be used to focus acoustic waves to a specific location in space, with most applications aiming to create an impulsive focus. Here, this study instead aims to focus long-duration noise signals using TR. This paper seeks to generate higher amplitude noise at a desired location over an existing method of broadcasting equalized noise. Additionally, this paper explores various characteristics associated with focusing long duration noise using TR. The dependence of the focal amplitude on the duration of the focused signal is explored as well as the implications of using multiple sources when focusing noise. The focal amplitude decreases with longer duration and then levels off when the duration exceeds a few seconds. Coherent addition of focused noise is observed if all loudspeakers have coherent noise signals convolved with their reversed impulse responses. Lastly, focusing noise with a desired spectrum is explored.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling
Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average
Nguyen, Trung↗
Multi-device analysis of energy loss duration and pellet penetration with implications for shattered pellet injection in ITER
A robust disruption mitigation system (DMS) requires accurate characterization of key disruption timescales, one of the most notable being the thermal quench (TQ). Recent modeling of shattered pellet injection (SPI) into ITER plasmas, using JOREK and INDEX, suggests long TQ durations (6–10 ms) and slow cold front propagation due to the large plasma size. If validated, these predictions would have an impact on the desired pellet parameters and mitigation strategies for the ITER DMS. To resolve these questions, a database of SPI experiments from several small-to-large sized devices (J-TEXT, KSTAR, AUG, DIII-D, and JET) has been compiled under the auspices of the International Tokamak Physics Activity MHD, disruptions, and control topical group. Analysis of the energy loss duration (proxy for the TQ duration) with machine size is presented for both mixed neon/deuterium (Ne/D) SPI and pure deuterium (D) SPI. Several metrics for the energy loss onset (e.g. soft x-ray signal drop, I p dip, and radiation flash) were considered as the conventional metric, electron cyclotron emission, is often cut-off during SPI. Several scalings with different onset metrics showed an increase in energy loss duration with machine size. The energy loss duration was additionally shown to be a function of the ratio between the number of SPI neon atoms injected and the stored energy. Analysis of the pellet shard position relative to the cold front found that in larger devices, pellets are typically found inboard of the q = 2 surface at the energy loss onset. Lastly, the delay between the pellet shards hitting the q = 2 surface and the energy loss onset was additionally found to increase with machine size. This suggests that the pellet shards in large devices will penetrate faster and further than the cooling front.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
An alternative method of changing the pulse duration in a stretcher-compressor pair by changing the gas pressure in the compressor
The relatively narrow bandwidth of neodymium glass requires a much larger stretch ratio of chirped-pulse amplification (CPA) systems. This factor, together with a large incident angle on the gratings, makes glass CPA systems extremely sensitive to the refractive index of the medium in the stretcher-compressor. High sensitivity of the stretcher-compressor pair for hybrid optical parametric chirped-pulse amplification and an Nd:glass laser to the refractive index was demonstrated in air, vacuum, and carbon dioxide, and a pulse duration close to the transform limit was reached. An alternative way to change the pulse duration was proposed. The pulse duration from the best compression of 500 fs to 30 ps was smoothly varied by changing the air pressure from 10 -6 Torr to 1 atm in the compressor and up to 52 ps in carbon dioxide, while the stretcher and compressor remained untouched. Finally, excellent agreement of the measured pulse duration with theoretical calculations was demonstrated.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
Hierarchical semi-Markov models with duration-aware dynamics for activity sequences
Residential electricity demand at granular scales is driven by what people do and for how long. Accurately forecasting this demand for applications like microgrid management and demand response therefore requires generative models for activities that can produce realistic daily activity sequences, capturing both the timing and duration of human behavior. This paper develops a generative model of human activity sequences using nationally representative time-use diaries at a 10-min resolution. We use this model to quantify which demographic factors are most critical for improving predictive performance. We propose a hierarchical semi-Markov framework that addresses two key modeling challenges. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov router learns the patterns of “which activity comes next.” Second, a semi-Markov hazard component explicitly models activity durations, capturing “how long” activities realistically last. To ensure statistical stability when data are sparse, the model pools information across related demographic groups and time blocks. The entire framework is trained and evaluated using survey design weights to ensure our findings are representative of the U.S. population. On a held-out test set, we demonstrate that explicitly modeling durations with the hazard component provides a substantial and statistically significant improvement over purely Markovian models. Furthermore, our analysis reveals a clear hierarchy of demographic factors: Sex, Day-Type, and Household Size provide the largest predictive gains, while Region and Season, though important for energy calculations, contribute little to predicting the activity sequence itself. The result is an interpretable and robust generator of synthetic activity traces, providing a high-fidelity foundation for downstream energy systems modeling.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Evaluating methods to reduce duration of near-threshold fatigue crack growth rate measurements for low-alloy steels in hydrogen gas
Measurement of the near-threshold fatigue crack growth rate (da/dN) vs. stress-intensity factor range (∆K) relationship in hydrogen gas is essential for maximizing the calculated design fatigue life of high-pressure hydrogen storage vessels. However, such measurements are rarely performed, since the low cyclic loading frequencies applied in standard practice lead to prohibitively protracted test durations. The objective of this study was to demonstrate two means for reducing test durations when measuring near-threshold da/dN vs. ΔK relationships under decreasing ΔK for low-alloy pressure vessel steels in hydrogen gas: 1) imposing steeper K-gradients relative to the recommended limits in standards such as ASTM E647, and 2) increasing cyclic loading frequency relative to typical values applied during fatigue crack growth testing of low-alloy steels in hydrogen gas. Recognizing that steeper K-gradients could amplify loading-history effects, test methods employing this approach were designed to mitigate such effects by either maintaining constant K max or gradually increasing the K-gradient as the threshold was approached. Although the varying K-gradient method was vulnerable to loading-history effects in the form of plasticity-induced crack closure, particularly at lower stress ratio (R) and higher starting K max values, these effects could be compensated by applying the adjusted compliance ratio (ACR) method. Here, it was demonstrated that steeper K-gradients in concert with increased cyclic loading frequency reduced the duration of near-threshold fatigue crack growth tests in hydrogen gas by more than 99% relative to standard practices.
Fatigue threshold↗
Duration of super-emitting oil and gas methane sources
The duration of super-emitting events (>100 kg h -1 ) in oil and gas basins remains insufficiently understood but is key for reporting programs and mitigation strategies. Carbon Mapper conducted aerial surveys from April 30 to May 17, 2024, over the New Mexico Permian Basin, covering 276,000 wells, 1100 compressor stations, 175 gas processing plants, and 27,000 km of pipeline. We find over 500 super-emitting sources with 300 of these sources observed repeatedly across multiple days. We quantify total super emissions by integrating individual events with observationally constrained event durations (5.98 −14.7 Gg CH 4 ) and compare to total emissions derived from basin average snapshots (12.7 ± 0.92 Gg CH 4 ). This gap between emission estimates is reconciled through assumptions on missed detections, characteristic event duration, detection frequency, and diurnal variability. Emission events generally lasted for at least 2 hours, and a small subset of sources (18 total), persistently emitted throughout the entire campaign, representing a near-term opportunity for mitigation. When compared to regional flux estimates derived from independent observations, we estimate super-emitters to contribute approximately 50% (37-73%) towards total emissions. Frequent wide-area monitoring is crucial for capturing rare super-emitter events that, together with other emission sources, drive basin-level variability and emission intensity.
Cusworth, Daniel H. [Carbon Mapper, Pasadena, CA (↗
The 2024 July 16 solar event: a challenge to the coronal mass ejection origin of long-duration gamma-ray flares
We present a multi-spacecraft analysis of the 2024 July 16 long-duration gamma-ray flare (LDGRF) detected by the Large Area Telescope on the Fermi satellite. The measured > 100 MeV γ-ray emission persisted for over seven hours after the flare impulsive phase, and was characterized by photon energies exceeding 1 GeV and a remarkably hard parent-proton spectrum. In contrast, the phenomena related to the coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven shock linked to this eruption were modest, suggesting an inefficient proton acceleration unlikely to achieve energies well above the 300 MeV pion-production threshold to account for the observed γ-ray emission. Specifically, the CME was relatively slow (∼600 km/s) and the accompanying interplanetary type-II/III radio bursts were faint and short-lived, unlike those typically detected during large events. In particular, the type-II emission did not extend to kilohertz frequencies and disappeared ∼5.5 hours prior to the LDGRF end time. Furthermore, the associated solar energetic particle (SEP) event was very weak, short-duration, and limited to a few tens of MeV, even at magnetically well-connected spacecraft. These findings demonstrate that a very fast CME resulting in a high-energy SEP event is not a necessary condition for the occurrence of LDGRFs, challenging the idea that the high-energy γ-ray emission is produced by the back-precipitation of shock-accelerated ions into the solar surface. The alternative origin scenario based on local particle trapping and acceleration in large-scale coronal loops is instead favored by the observation of giant arch-like structures of hot plasma over the source region that persisted for the entire duration of this LDGRF.
Sun: UV radiation↗
A Comprehensive Comparison of Methods for Evaluating Dispatch of Long-Duration Energy Storage in Power Systems Models
Long-duration energy storage (LDES) could play a pivotal role in the transformation of electricity grids with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) such as solar and wind. However, the weather-dependent nature of VRE introduces challenges for grid balancing and stability, which LDES - along with short-duration energy storage (SDES) - can help address. However, modeling LDES in production cost models (PCMs) is particularly challenging due to the need for high temporal resolution over extended optimization windows while preserving chronology, which ensures the alignment of energy storage operations with VRE generation over multi-day periods. This report compares traditional dispatch methods with advanced LDES dispatch strategies, such as the extended horizon approach, across different PCM platforms and examines tradeoffs and scalability. The comparison reveals that the traditional 1-day optimization horizon within the PCM leads to inefficient utilization of LDES. In contrast, extending the optimization horizon as much as possible significantly reduces curtailment and improves storage dispatch, especially in renewable-dense systems. There is also promise in using state-of-charge or end volume targets set by an external model, however this requires an additional modeling set and generally increases computational burden. This paper presents a comparison of these various methods in a number of power systems, showing algorithms initially in small test systems and scaling up to large, country-wide simulations. Overall, the research presents the trade-offs of various computational methods and illustrates how LDES may play an essential role in power systems of the future.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Electricity Markets and Long-Duration Energy Storage: A Survey of Grid Services and Revenue Streams
Purpose of Review Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) is increasingly viewed as a potential resource for providing grid services that enhance the stability and flexibility of electricity systems. While some LDES services are integrated into existing market frameworks, traditional mechanisms may not fully account for their operational characteristics, potentially leading to undervaluation. Within this context, this paper reviews the literature and industry practices to assess potential grid services for LDES, evaluates existing compensation mechanisms, and identifies challenges to full market integration. Recent Findings We first review existing literature and identify key grid services unique to LDES, including enhancing grid resilience during extreme weather events, enabling long-term energy shifting, and providing flexible and firm energy in systems with limited dispatchable resources. Here, we also review how LDES services are compensated in current market frameworks and the challenges associated with the full realization of LDES values. Additionally, we summarize market mechanisms for storage technologies across U.S. wholesale markets. We find that some markets are adjusting incentive structures, such as incorporating storage duration in capacity accreditation, to better align with system needs and LDES contributions to the grid. However, further refinements in capacity remuneration and dispatch timeframes may be needed for more effective realization of LDES value. Summary This review evaluates potential grid services for LDES, examines existing compensation mechanisms for LDES technologies, and identifies gaps between these mechanisms and LDES operational characteristics. The review concludes by outlining potential market enhancements for more effective LDES integration and articulating additional research needs to support its efficient participation in future power systems.
Flexible resources↗
Impact of Grazing Duration and Environment on Soil Carbon in Reclaimed Uranium Mines Tailings: A Region Specific Study
ABSTRACT Grassland ecosystems, which cover over one‐third of the Earth's land area, store 10%–30% of global soil carbon (C). However, these ecosystems face substantial impacts from human activities, including mining. This study investigates the spatial distribution of soil C and related environmental factors in reclaimed grasslands on former uranium mine sites in Wyoming. We hypothesized that grazing duration and environmental factors would influence soil C levels. Interactions between topography, vegetation diversity, soil properties, and soil C in the context of grazing management in both natural and reclaimed grasslands from a wide range of periods from 1 year to 100 years were analyzed using geographically weighted regression models. Data collected from 2022 to 2023 showed that total carbon was consistently higher in natural grasslands (1.2%–4.9%) than in reclaimed grasslands (0.8%–1.3%). Additionally, soil C was significantly higher in natural grasslands grazed for 1 year compared to those grazed for 100 years. In contrast, reclaimed grasslands had lower soil C in areas grazed for 1 year compared to those grazed for 7 or 14 years. The absolute values of coefficients from environmental covariates indicated that areas grazed for a shorter duration (~1 year) were more influenced by biotic and abiotic factors than areas grazed for longer periods (> 7 years). Our findings show moderate grazing increases the resiliency of grassland ecosystems when grazed 7 years or longer and acknowledge the roles of topographic, soil, and vegetative factors in enhancing soil C concentration and developing sustainable land management practices in rangeland conditions.
Shilpakar, Chandan [Department of Plant Sciences U↗
Deployment Pathways for Long Duration Energy Storage
We apply a least-cost generation expansion model of the continental United States to assess how optimal investments in long-duration energy storage (LDES) technologies are impacted by changes in system generation portfolios and technology costs, assessing 369 capacity expansion scenarios in total. The expansion model considers 8,760 h of chronological operations for the entire target year, 2040. We find that low-cost LDES technologies can reduce generation investments and system costs. Specifically, once the costs for 24- and 100-h storage reach $38/kWh and $14/kWh, respectively, substantial deployments are observed. The distribution of storage investments across durations is strongly influenced by the system generation portfolio. We also demonstrate that a high-fidelity temporal representation is required to capture the value of LDES in generation expansion. Finally, we conduct a regression analysis of our capacity expansion results and find that LDES deployments are positively correlated with the combined wind and solar capacity share and negatively correlated with peaking and baseload shares.
Levin, Todd↗
Duration of O 2 Exposure Determines Dominance of Fe II vs CH 4 Production in Tropical Forest Soils
Temporal fluctuations in redox conditions influence the availability of Fe III and greenhouse gas emissions in humid upland soils. However, the impact of fluctuation duration on biogeochemical processes remains unclear. We hypothesized that rates of Fe III reduction and CH 4 production are sensitive to the duration of soil oxygenation. To test this, surface soil from the Luquillo Forest, Puerto Rico, was subjected to fluctuating redox conditions with an anoxic interval of 6 days followed by oxic intervals of either 8, 24, or 72 h. Shorter oxic intervals enhanced Fe reduction, while longer oxic intervals enhanced CH 4 emissions. As O 2 exposure decreased from 72 to 8 h, Fe reduction rates increased from 0.12 ± 0.02 to 0.26 ± 0.05 mmol kg –1 h –1 , whereas cumulative CH 4 decreased from 44.0 ± 4.7 to 12.7 ± 4.6 μmol kg –1 . 13 C-amino acid spikes were preferentially incorporated into the DNA of iron reducers (Anaeromyxobacter sp.) in the shorter oxic treatment (8 h vs 24 h), suggesting that Fe reducers are less inhibited by shorter periods of oxidation. Conversely, longer oxygen pulses appear to suppress Fe reducers more than methanogens, leading to increased CH 4 emissions. These findings highlight the role of the redox oscillation length in modulating biogeochemical processes and greenhouse gas emissions in soils.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The Role of Wind Speed in Prolonging Large Fire Durations in the Western US
Abstract The duration of large wildfires in the western US has increased significantly from 1992 to 2020 in the two fire seasons, by 0.76 days yr −1 in summer and 0.55 days yr −1 in fall. The factors driving the trend and variability were analyzed using multiple linear regression models. Our analysis identified the maximum daily wind speed during large fires, which has also increased during the study period, as the primary predictor for the large fire duration. Despite the observed rise in maximum wind speed specifically during large fires, there are no corresponding trends in the average daily mean wind speed throughout the fire seasons. The mechanisms underlying the increase in maximum wind speed during large fires remain unclear and warrant further investigation, as they may pose growing challenges for fire control.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Development of advanced vacuum technologies for extending plasma pulse duration on EAST
Advanced vacuum technologies, including pumping, fueling and wall conditioning, have been successfully developed or upgraded to efficiently control the fuel and impurity particles to extend the plasma pulse duration in the experimental advanced superconducting tokamak (EAST). To improve the particle exhaust rate cryopumps with a 60% increase in pumping speed and ∼2 times increase in saturation capacity have been developed, and molecular pumps with a ∼30% increase in pumping speed have been upgraded. In order to monitor the molecular pump status while avoiding bearing faults and overload accidents, a fault detection system has been built which can offer an early warning to avoid more losses within the fusion device. A series of fueling technologies have been developed including gas injection system, supersonic molecular beam injector, pellet injector (PI), massive gas injector and shattered pellet injector, installed at the midplane and divertor positions at different ports to improve fueling uniformity and efficiency. Meanwhile, routine wall conditioning such as electric and hot N 2 baking, ion cyclotron wall conditioning and glow discharge cleaning have been successfully developed to remove the impurity particles from the inner component and materials. The low Z material wall coating and real-time powder injection during plasma discharge are also designed and applied to further improve particle control capability. Finally, by using these advanced vacuum related technologies, good vacuum (<2 × 10 −6 Pa) and wall conditions are realized, and the fuel and impurity particles can be effectively and stably controlled, which promotes the achievement of the record plasma of ∼1056 s pulse duration with the line-averaged electron density of 1.8 × 10 19 m −3 on EAST. They provide a very important reference for vacuum system design and operation for future fusion devices.
EAST↗