Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “dynamic inference”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamical Inference and 3D Imaging of Magnetized Dusty Plasmas

This is the final technical report for this DOE award. The motion of dust particles in a laboratory plasma has been studied for nearly 30 years and has led to the discovery of strongly-coupled crystalline structures and nonequilibrium dynamics governed by gravitational, hydrodynamic, and electrostatic forces. Many of the inter-particle forces are complex; they can be non-reciprocal, and non-additive. Deciphering the mélange of particle interactions has been a challenging task, nevertheless, magnetized dusty plasmas remains an open challenge with limited understanding. With applications ranging from magnetically-confined plasmas for fusion to near-surface planetary environments, this research field is ripe for well-controlled, laboratory experiments and new theoretical tools. In collaboration with the MDPX experiment at Auburn University, this proposal aims to tease apart both the known and unknown forces that drive dusty plasmas in magnetized environments using high-resolution, three-dimensional imaging and particle tracking coupled with modern dynamical inference and machine learning techniques.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Beyond carbon flux partitioning: Carbon allocation and nonstructural carbon dynamics inferred from continuous fluxes

Carbon (C) allocation and nonstructural carbon (NSC) dynamics play essential roles in plant growth and survival under stress and disturbance. However, quantitative understanding of these processes remains limited. Here, in this work, we propose a framework where we connect commonly measured carbon cycle components (eddy covariance fluxes of canopy CO 2 exchange, soil CO 2 efflux, and allometry-based biomass and net primary production) by a simple mass balance model to derive ecosystem-level NSC dynamics (NSC i ), C translocation (dC i ), and the biomass production efficiency (BPE i ) in above- and belowground plant (i = agp and bgp) compartments. We applied this framework to two long-term monitored loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) plantations of different ages in North Carolina and characterized the variations of NSC and allocation in years under normal and drought conditions. The results indicated that the young stand did not have net NSC flux at the annual scale, whereas the mature stand stored a near-constant proportion of new assimilates as NSC every year under normal conditions, which was comparable in magnitude to new structural growth. Roots consumed NSC in drought and stored a significant amount of NSC post drought. The above- and belowground dC i and BPE i varied more from year to year in the young stand and approached a relatively stable pattern in the mature stand. The belowground BPE bgp differed the most between the young and mature stands and was most responsive to drought. With the internal C dynamics quantified, this framework may also improve biomass production estimation, which reveals the variations resulting from droughts. Overall, these quantified ecosystem-scale dynamics were consistent with existing evidence from tree-based manipulative experiments and measurements and demonstrated that combining the continuous fluxes as proposed here can provide additional information about plant internal C dynamics. Given that it is based on broadly available flux data, the proposed framework is promising to improve the allocation algorithms in ecosystem C cycle models and offers new insights into observed variability in soil–plant–climate interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implementing Superresolution of Nonstationary Tides with Wavelets: An Introduction to CWT_Multi

Abstract Tides are often nonstationary due to nonastronomical influences. Investigating variable tidal properties implies a trade-off between separating adjacent frequencies (using long analysis windows) and resolving their time variations (short analysis windows). Previous continuous wavelet transform (CWT) tidal methods resolved tidal species. Here, we present CWT_Multi, a MATLAB code that 1) uses CWT linearity (via the “response coefficient method”) to implement superresolution, i.e., resolving tidal constituents beyond the Rayleigh criterion; 2) provides a Munk–Hasselmann constituent selection criterion appropriate for superresolution; and 3) introduces an objective, time-variable form of inference (“dynamic inference”) based on time-varying data properties. CWT_Multi resolves tidal species on time scales of days, and multiple constituents per species with fortnightly filters. It outputs astronomical phase lags and admittances, analyzes multiple records, and provides power spectra of the signal(s), residual(s), and reconstruction(s); confidence limits; and signal-to-noise ratios. Artificial data and water levels from the Lower Columbia River Estuary (LCRE) and San Francisco Bay Delta (SFBD) are used to test CWT_Multi and compare it to harmonic analysis programs NS_Tide and UTide. CWT_Multi provides superior reconstruction, detiding, dynamic analysis utility, and time resolution of constituents (but with broader confidence limits). Dynamic inference resolves closely spaced constituents (like K 1 , S 1 , and P 1 ) on fortnightly time scales, quantifying impacts of diel power peaking (with a 24-h period, like S 1 ) on water levels in the LCRE. CWT_Multi also helps quantify the impacts of high flows and a salt barrier closing on tidal properties in the SFBD. On the other hand, CWT_Multi does not excel at prediction, and results depend on analysis details, as for any method applied to nonstationary data. Significance Statement Ocean tides, especially in coastal and estuarine systems, are often nonstationary, in the sense that the mean and standard deviation of tidal properties vary over time, usually in response to some nontidal process. We introduce here a MATLAB code, CWT_Multi, that uses wavelet transforms to resolve both tidal species and constituents on time scales from a few days to months. Our code accommodates multiple scalar time series and has typical tidal analysis features like constituent selection and inference, plus two forms of uncertainty analyses. It is flexible, allowing the user to adapt analysis properties to diverse datasets. CWT_Multi is applicable to many problems involving time-variable tides, including sea level rise, compound flooding, sediment transport, and wetland habitat analyses. Application to vector data is a straightforward extension, but further development of our uncertainty analysis is merited. Because nonstationary tidal analysis is rapidly advancing, we also define the features of a “well-formed” analysis code.

Lobo, Matthew↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interface learning in fluid dynamics: Statistical inference of closures within micro–macro-coupling models

Many complex multiphysics systems in fluid dynamics involve using solvers with varied levels of approximations in different regions of the computational domain to resolve multiple spatiotemporal scales present in the flow. The accuracy of the solution is governed by how the information is exchanged between these solvers at the interface and several methods have been devised for such coupling problems. In this article, we construct a data-driven model by spatially coupling a microscale lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) solver and macroscale finite difference method (FDM) solver for reaction-diffusion systems. The coupling between the micro-macro solvers has one to many mapping at the interface leading to the interface closure problem, and we propose a statistical inference method based on neural networks to learn this closure relation. The performance of the proposed framework in a bifidelity setting partitioned between the FDM and LBM domain shows its promise for complex systems where analytical relations between micro-macro solvers are not available.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Inferring the Dynamics of the State Evolution During Quantum Annealing

To solve an optimization problem using a commercial quantum annealer, one has to represent the problem of interest as an Ising or a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) problem and submit its coefficients to the annealer, which then returns a user-specified number of low-energy solutions. It would be useful to know what happens in the quantum processor during the anneal process so that one could design better algorithms or suggest improvements to the hardware. However, existing quantum annealers are not able to directly extract such information from the processor. Hence, in this work we propose to use advanced features of D-Wave 2000Q to indirectly infer information about the dynamics of the state evolution during the anneal process. Specifically, D-Wave 2000Q allows the user to customize the anneal schedule, that is, the schedule with which the anneal fraction is changed from the start to the end of the anneal. Furthermore, using this feature, we design a set of modified anneal schedules whose outputs can be used to generate information about the states of the system at user-defined time points during a standard anneal. With this process, called "slicing", we obtain approximate distributions of lowest-energy anneal solutions as the anneal time evolves. We use our technique to obtain a variety of insights into the annealer, such as the state evolution during annealing, when individual bits in an evolving solution flip during the anneal process and when they stabilize, and we introduce a technique to estimate the freeze-out point of both the system as well as of individual qubits.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A seamless multiscale operator neural network for inferring bubble dynamics

Modelling multiscale systems from nanoscale to macroscale requires the use of atomistic and continuum methods and, correspondingly, different computer codes. Here, we develop a seamless method based on DeepONet, which is a composite deep neural network (a branch and a trunk network) for regressing operators. In particular, we consider bubble growth dynamics, and we model tiny bubbles of initial size from 100 nm to 10 $\mathrm {\mu }\textrm {m}$ , modelled by the Rayleigh–Plesset equation in the continuum regime above 1 $\mathrm {\mu }\textrm {m}$ and the dissipative particle dynamics method for bubbles below 1 $\mathrm {\mu }\textrm {m}$ in the atomistic regime. After an offline training based on data from both regimes, DeepONet can make accurate predictions of bubble growth on-the-fly (within a fraction of a second) across four orders of magnitude difference in spatial scales and two orders of magnitude in temporal scales. The framework of DeepONet is general and can be used for unifying physical models of different scales in diverse multiscale applications.

Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Matrix Diffusion Controls Mountain Hillslope Groundwater Ages and Inferred Storage Dynamics

Groundwater age distributions provide fundamental insights on coupled water and biogeochemical processes in mountain watersheds. Field-based studies have found mixtures of young and old-aged groundwater in mountain catchments underlain by bedrock; yet, the processes that dictate these groundwater age distributions are poorly understood. In this work, we use the coupled ParFlow-CLM integrated hydrologic and EcoSLIM particle tracking models to simulate groundwater age distributions on a lower montane hillslope in the East River Watershed, Colorado (USA). We develop a convolution-based approach to propagate fracture-matrix diffusion processes to the EcoSLIM advection-dominated age distributions. We compare observed 3 H and 4 He concentrations from two groundwater wells against model predictions that have varying advective transport times and matrix diffusion magnitudes. Based on a Monte Carlo analysis that considers uncertain matrix and fracture parameters, we find that matrix diffusion is needed to jointly predict 3 H and 4 He observations at both wells. The advection-dominated age distributions lack adequate mixing of young and old-aged water to capture the observed co-occurrence of 3 H and 4 He. The model scenario that best matches the 3 H, 4 He, and water level observations when considering both advective flowpath and matrix diffusion mixing processes has a dynamic bedrock groundwater reservoir that is susceptible to considerable storage losses during low-snow periods. This dynamic groundwater system amplifies the need to assimilate deeper bedrock groundwater into watershed hydro-biogeochemical predictions. This work further highlights the importance of considering matrix diffusion when interpreting environmental tracers in bedrock groundwater systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive mitigation of time-varying quantum noise

Current quantum computers suffer from non-stationary noise channels with high error rates, which undermines their reliability and reproducibility. We propose a Bayesian inference based adaptive algorithm that can learn and mitigate quantum noise in response to changing channel conditions. Our study emphasizes the need for dynamic inference of critical channel parameters to improve program accuracy. We use the Dirichlet distribution to model the stochasticity of the Pauli channel. This allows us to perform Bayesian inference, which can improve the performance of probabilistic error cancellation (PEC) under time-varying noise. Our work demonstrates the importance of characterizing and mitigating temporal variations in quantum noise, which is crucial for developing more accurate and reliable quantum technologies. Our results demonstrate that Bayesian PEC can outperform non-adaptive approaches by a factor of 4.5x when measured using Hellinger distance from the ideal distribution.

Dasgupta, Samudra↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deriving spatially explicit direct and indirect interaction networks from animal movement data

Abstract Quantifying spatiotemporally explicit interactions within animal populations facilitates the understanding of social structure and its relationship with ecological processes. Data from animal tracking technologies (Global Positioning Systems [“GPS”]) can circumvent longstanding challenges in the estimation of spatiotemporally explicit interactions, but the discrete nature and coarse temporal resolution of data mean that ephemeral interactions that occur between consecutive GPS locations go undetected. Here, we developed a method to quantify individual and spatial patterns of interaction using continuous‐time movement models (CTMMs) fit to GPS tracking data. We first applied CTMMs to infer the full movement trajectories at an arbitrarily fine temporal scale before estimating interactions, thus allowing inference of interactions occurring between observed GPS locations. Our framework then infers indirect interactions—individuals occurring at the same location, but at different times—while allowing the identification of indirect interactions to vary with ecological context based on CTMM outputs. We assessed the performance of our new method using simulations and illustrated its implementation by deriving disease‐relevant interaction networks for two behaviorally differentiated species, wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) that can host African Swine Fever and mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) that can host chronic wasting disease. Simulations showed that interactions derived from observed GPS data can be substantially underestimated when temporal resolution of movement data exceeds 30‐min intervals. Empirical application suggested that underestimation occurred in both interaction rates and their spatial distributions. CTMM‐Interaction method, which can introduce uncertainties, recovered majority of true interactions. Our method leverages advances in movement ecology to quantify fine‐scale spatiotemporal interactions between individuals from lower temporal resolution GPS data. It can be leveraged to infer dynamic social networks, transmission potential in disease systems, consumer–resource interactions, information sharing, and beyond. The method also sets the stage for future predictive models linking observed spatiotemporal interaction patterns to environmental drivers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Li-Ion Transport Properties of Li 3 TiCl 6 : A Machine Learning Molecular Dynamics Study

We performed large-scale molecular dynamics simulations based on a machine-learning force field (MLFF) to investigate the Li-ion transport mechanism in cation-disordered Li 3 TiCl 6 cathode at six different temperatures, ranging from 25°C to 100°C. In this work, deep neural network method and data generated by ab − initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations were deployed to build a high-fidelity MLFF. Radial distribution functions, Li-ion mean square displacements (MSD), diffusion coefficients, ionic conductivity, activation energy, and crystallographic direction-dependent migration barriers were calculated and compared with corresponding AIMD and experimental data to benchmark the accuracy of the MLFF. From MSD analysis, we captured both the self and distinct parts of Li-ion dynamics. The latter reveals that the Li-ions are involved in anti-correlation motion that was rarely reported for solid-state materials. Similarly, the self and distinct parts of Li-ion dynamics were used to determine Haven’s ratio to describe the Li-ion transport mechanism in Li 3 TiCl 6 . Obtained trajectory from molecular dynamics infers that the Li-ion transportation is mainly through interstitial hopping which was confirmed by intra- and inter-layer Li-ion displacement with respect to simulation time. Ionic conductivity (1.06 mS/cm) and activation energy (0.29eV) calculated by our simulation are highly comparable with that of experimental values. Overall, the combination of machine-learning methods and AIMD simulations explains the intricate electrochemical properties of the Li 3 TiCl 6 cathode with remarkably reduced computational time. Thus, our work strongly suggests that the deep neural network-based MLFF could be a promising method for large-scale complex materials.

Selvaraj, Selva Chandrasekaran (ORCID:000000029023↗
DOE OSTI2022

Contributing to Sunny open source code

The Sunny package is an existing open source software to support the simulation of magnetic spin systems. It is available online under the MIT license here: https://github.com/SunnySuite/Sunny.jl The package aims to include the following features: - Analysis for symmetry-allowed interactions - Monte Carlo algorithms for simulating equilibrium configurations. - Schemes for integrating spin dynamics. - Inference of model Hamiltonians - Support for generalized SU(N) spins - Tools for interpreting experimental data, such as diffraction data, magnetization curves, and heat capacity data

Barros, Kipton↗
DOE OSTI2023

Structural inference of networked dynamical systems with universal differential equations

Networked dynamical systems are common throughout science in engineering; e.g., biological networks, reaction networks, power systems, and the like. For many such systems, nonlinearity drives populations of identical (or near-identical) units to exhibit a wide range of nontrivial behaviors, such as the emergence of coherent structures (e.g., waves and patterns) or otherwise notable dynamics (e.g., synchrony and chaos). Here, we seek to infer (i) the intrinsic physics of a base unit of a population, (ii) the underlying graphical structure shared between units, and (iii) the coupling physics of a given networked dynamical system given observations of nodal states. These tasks are formulated around the notion of the Universal Differential Equation, whereby unknown dynamical systems can be approximated with neural networks, mathematical terms known a priori (albeit with unknown parameterizations), or combinations of the two. We demonstrate the value of these inference tasks by investigating not only future state predictions but also the inference of system behavior on varied network topologies. The effectiveness and utility of these methods are shown with their application to canonical networked nonlinear coupled oscillators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Weak-form inference for hybrid dynamical systems in ecology

Species subject to predation and environmental threats commonly exhibit variable periods of population boom and bust over long timescales. Understanding and predicting such behaviour, especially given the inherent heterogeneity and stochasticity of exogenous driving factors over short timescales, is an ongoing challenge. A modelling paradigm gaining popularity in the ecological sciences for such multi-scale effects is to couple short-term continuous dynamics to long-term discrete updates. We develop a data-driven method utilizing weak-form equation learning to extract such hybrid governing equations for population dynamics and to estimate the requisite parameters using sparse intermittent measurements of the discrete and continuous variables. The method produces a set of short-term continuous dynamical system equations parametrized by long-term variables, and long-term discrete equations parametrized by short-term variables, allowing direct assessment of interdependencies between the two timescales. We demonstrate the utility of the method on a variety of ecological scenarios and provide extensive tests using models previously derived for epizootics experienced by the North American spongy moth ( Lymantria dispar dispar ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Large-scale Nonlinear Approaches for Inference of Reporting Dynamics and Unobserved SARS-CoV-2 Infections

This work focuses on estimation of unknown states and parameters in a discrete-time, stochastic, SEIR model using reported case counts and mortality data. An SEIR model is based on classifying individuals with respect to their status in regards to the progression of the disease, where S is the number individuals who remain susceptible to the disease, E is the number of individuals who have been exposed to the disease but not yet infectious, I is the number of individuals who are currently infectious, and R is the number of recovered individuals. For convenience, we include in our notation the number of infections or transmissions, T, that represents the number of individuals transitioning from compartment S to compartment E over a particular interval. Similarly, we use C to represent the number of reported cases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generative Ensemble Regression: Learning Particle Dynamics from Observations of Ensembles with Physics-informed Deep Generative Models

Here, we propose a new method for inferring the governing stochastic ordinary differential equations (SODEs) by observing particle ensembles at discrete and sparse time instants, i.e., multiple “snapshots.” Particle coordinates at a single time instant, possibly noisy or truncated, are recorded in each snapshot but are unpaired across the snapshots. By training a physics-informed generative model that generates “fake” sample paths, we aim to fit the observed particle ensemble distributions with a curve in the probability measure space, which is induced from the inferred particle dynamics. We employ different metrics to quantify the differences between distributions, e.g., the sliced Wasserstein distances and the adversarial losses in generative adversarial networks. We refer to this method as generative “ensemble-regression” (GER), in analogy to the classic “point-regression,” where we infer the dynamics by performing regression in the Euclidean space. We illustrate the GER by learning the drift and diffusion terms of particle ensembles governed by SODEs with Brownian motions and Lévy processes up to 100 dimensions. We also discuss how to treat cases with noisy or truncated observations. Apart from systems consisting of independent particles, we also tackle nonlocal interacting particle systems with unknown interaction potential parameters by constructing a physics-informed loss function. Finally, we investigate scenarios of paired observations and discuss how to reduce the dimensionality in such cases by proving a convergence theorem that provides theoretical support.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Goal-oriented real-time Bayesian inference for linear autonomous dynamical systems with application to digital twins for tsunami early warning

We present a goal-oriented framework for constructing digital twins with the following properties: (1) they employ discretizations of high-fidelity partial differential equation (PDE) models governed by autonomous dynamical systems, leading to large-scale forward problems; (2) they solve a linear inverse problem to assimilate observational data to infer uncertain model components followed by a forward prediction of the evolving dynamics; and (3) the entire end-to-end, data-to-inference-to-prediction computation is carried out without approximation and in real time through a Bayesian framework that rigorously accounts for uncertainties. Several challenges must be overcome to realize this framework, including the large scale of the forward problem, the high dimensionality of the parameter space, and for a class of problems including those we target, the slow decay of the singular values of the parameter-to-observable map. Here we introduce a methodology to overcome these challenges by exploiting the autonomous structure of the forward model to decompose the solution of the inverse problem into a one-time-only offline phase in which the PDE model is solved a limited number of times (equal to the number of sensors), and an online phase that maps well onto GPUs and computes the parameter inference and prediction of quantities of interest in real time, given observational data. Our ultimate goal is to apply this framework to construct digital twins for subduction zones, including Cascadia, to provide early warning for tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes. To this end, we demonstrate how our methodology can be used to employ seafloor pressure observations, along with the coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer the earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion (discretized with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 9 ) parameters) and forward predict the tsunami propagation. We present results of an end-to-end inference, prediction, and uncertainty quantification for a representative test problem with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 8 ) inversion parameters for which goal-oriented Bayesian inference is accomplished exactly and in real time, that is, in a matter of seconds.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗