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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Particle Swarm Optimization of Dynamic Load Model Parameters in Large Systems

This paper considers two dynamic load models that are widely used in industry to account for induction motor behavior: CMLD and CLOD. These models must be parametrized for the specific utility system in a general way so that they can be used in planning studies and provide a conservative but realistic representation of load behavior. This study considers a measurement-based approach to tuning both models. The load modeling study compares the response of the tuned models to generic candidate models using historical events. This study considers one area-based subsystem to simplify the modeling approach and reduce the number of models required for simulations. Additionally, because dynamic load models often produce similar results for different sets of parameters, a sensitivity study was conducted to assess the parameter impacts on the voltage response. The sensitivity study covers the parameters that are tuned using event measurements. The process to estimate the parameters uses the particle-swarm optimization algorithm. Overall, the performance of the tuned model more accurately captures recovery voltage, delayed recovery, and settling voltage than its predecessor models while not being overly tuned so that it remains general for peak summer conditions.

dynamic load modeling↗
DOE OSTI2026

A wide-range thermodynamically consistent constitutive model for dynamic loading of partially saturated porous media

SUMMARY This paper presents a novel thermodynamically consistent constitutive model for partially saturated porous rocks across a wide range of conditions. The material states generated behind the shock wave from an explosive source can vary significantly, ranging from crushed and melted rock near the source to a poroelastic medium in the far field. In the model, rock strength is determined by the effective pressure, which is calculated using two independent equations of state: one for the solid rock and another for the pore fluid. The model accounts for shock-induced liquefaction resulting from fluid pressure buildup in the pore spaces near the explosive source. Simultaneously, it describes the increase in wave propagation speed due to elastic pore contraction in both dry and partially saturated rocks. This model is applied to investigate how fluid saturation affects the amplitude and shape of the generated waves, as well as the residual stress surrounding the cavity formed by spherical explosions.

Vorobiev, Oleg [Lawrence Livermore National Labora↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of a Subcritical Coal-Fired Power Plant under Load-Following Conditions

Dynamic models for power plants that capture realistic general process trends and effects of manipulated variables are needed to improve load-following, while minimizing carbon footprint. In this work, a dynamic modeling approach and simulation results for subcritical coal-fired power plant components are presented. These encompass simulation of the dynamics in the fireside, including the effects of fuel, air combustion, and the dynamics of the entire waterside and power generation sections. This model development enables the simulation and analysis of the important short and long-time scale dynamics of components such as heaters, evaporative loop, and power generation units. Furthermore, additional variables in the power generation section are introduced to improve model accuracy, extending the prediction capability of subcritical power plant models and opening new opportunities for research in operator training, optimization, and advanced model-based controller design that are based on these models. The change in process gain for different ramp rates associated with disturbance signals that affect process variables is also explored and a correlation developed. This provides opportunities to study disturbance rejection control implementation and adaptation for scenarios with such variations in ramp rates. The prediction capabilities of selected components are compared to data available in literature, with the obtained root mean squared error ranges that reflect the model performance and quality of predictions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

ACT University Collaboration Proposal: Role of manufacturing defects on material failure under dynamic loading for developing enhanced failure models and theories (Final Report)

Research on the tensile behavior of additively manufactured 316L stainless steel coupon specimens at increasing strain rates was conducted over the past year at Penn State. Dynamic loading rates into the 1000 1/s loading rates were performed on specimens with nearly 1.32” gage lengths. Stress-strain plots show ductile and plastic behavior well beyond 12% strain with necked specimens, having smaller effective gage lengths showing up to 56% ultimate strain. Additional tests performed on compact tension specimens helped with simulation work to understand the deformation behavior. Using finite elements, it was possible to determine the feasibility of a comprehensive experimental validation study towards an improved model for AM material failure – specifically, the Bai-Wierzbicki approach which accounts for lode angle and triaxiality. A non-significant number of tests are projected for eight specific failure nodes, with additional replicates to provide strain-rate capabilities to the existing formulation. One such correction factor is explored for quasi-static, notched specimens. Finally, stress intensity factor was explored using a set of compact-tension specimens which would also provide useful validation data for any simulation work.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Hard Life of Floatovoltaics: Modeling Wind-Driven Oscillations of Floating Solar Panels

Modern, thin photovoltaic (PV) panels for solar power are susceptible to high stress loads in windy conditions. Manufacturers are eager to determine optimal installation practices to reduce these loads, including in the relatively new practice of installing PV on floating structures located on artificial and natural lakes. As part of our effort to develop simulation capabilities for stress on such floating PV systems, we here present our combined model-simulation approach, which simulates the dynamic wind loading and uses modeled elements to capture both the hydrodynamic and mooring-line forces. We discuss the forces important for our model and the challenges inherent in our simulation. Of particular interest is our model of the hysteresis response displayed by the attached mooring lines, which are engineered to damp motion and oscillation of the floating panel system. We validate our approach against the benchmark problem of vortex-induced vibration of a cylinder, which is driven by the same dynamic forces present in floating PV panels.

floating↗
DOE OSTI2024

THERMAL MODELING OF HANFORD CESIUM AND STRONTIUM CANISTERS DURING SIMULATED LOADING

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was built to simulate planned testing of heater assemblies within a canister and overpack for the Hanford Lead Canister (HLC) project. The HLC is a canister storage system that will contain heaters to simulate the decay heat of nuclear material and provide the canister storage system with environmental conditions equivalent to the operating conditions on a dry storage pad. The HLC will be equipped with long-term data collection and monitoring systems to provide an early warning of corrosion, pitting, cracking, or other signs of canister degradation that might threaten the integrity of the containment boundary over the potentially long term of dry storage. An important part of the HLC development is to make pretest numerical predictions for the behavior of the heated canister during the simulated radiolytic decay heat testing, which simulates the dry storage system during loading operations. The simulated radiolytic decay heat test is planned for mid-2024 in a configuration that includes the heater assembly, overpack, and canister, but with the lids removed to allow loading cesium and strontium capsules into the canister. One of the goals of the test is to evaluate the thermal behavior of the canister and overpack assembly in the ambient air of the test facility, which will provide data critical to validating the thermal models and understanding how the HLC will perform as a system once deployed. To best approximate real-world conditions, the CFD model includes the full air volume of the mock-up truck bay the heated canister test will be performed in, enabling detailed investigation of how the heated canister affects airflow around it. Rigorous pre-deployment testing of the complete HLC cask and canister system is intended to be completed before the HLC is deployed in the 2028 timeframe. This study presents the pre-test temperature predictions of the simulated radiolytic decay heat test. A description of the heater assembly, canister, and overpack system is presented. The model was developed with the commercial CFD software STAR-CCM+. An uncertainty analysis was run with the CFD model to determine the uncertainty in the temperature predictions and provide a range over which the predicted temperatures are expected to vary. The uncertainty analysis was preformed by coupling STAR-CCM+ with the software Dakota, which provides advanced parametric analyses, including quantification of margins and uncertainty with computational models. This work is expected to provide insight into SNF canister behavior.

Carpenter-Graffy, Dina E.↗
DOE OSTI2025

The decay of HIV under anti-retroviral therapy is biphasic even in humanized mice with just T cells

HIV-1 plasma viral load decays in a biphasic manner during antiretroviral therapy (ART). It was hypothesized that this is due to infection of different cell types, namely CD4+ T cells and macrophages. We studied this possibility directly by modeling the decay of HIV-1 in humanized mice. We utilized previously published data from humanized T-cell only mice (TOM) and myeloid-only mice (MOM) infected with HIV-1 and treated with a potent ART regimen. Viral load decay dynamics were modeled using either a single or a biexponential decay fitted using nonlinear mixed effects techniques. Fits were compared using the corrected Bayesian information criterion (BICc). In TOM, the biphasic model was significantly better than a single-phase decay model (ΔBICc ≈ 16) despite additional parameters. In MOM, the biphasic decay was statistically better, but there was substantial uncertainty because the virus goes below detection very fast. The first-phase half-life was consistent between groups (1.2 days in MOM and 1.3 days in TOM) and similar to the half-life estimated in human infection. The second-phase decay in these mice was minimal likely due to low initial viral loads. Additional analyses with mice containing both CD4+ T cells and macrophages or X4-tropic virus-infected MOM mice confirmed the biphasic pattern, demonstrating the robustness of this result. The biphasic decline in HIV-1 occurs, even with only CD4+ T cells, refuting the hypothesis that distinct cell populations (CD4+ T cells and macrophages) drive each decay phase. These findings support an alternative model in which the observed dynamics arise from intrinsic properties of the viral infection lifecycle rather than from cellular compartmentalization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling of Inductive Constant Power Load for Electromagnetic-Transient Simulations-Part II

This paper improves the dynamic constant power (CP) load model that was published in Part I, which is appropriate for electromagnetic-transient (EMT). The improved model conserves all features of its predecessor. For instance, it maintains a fixed power consumption (both active and reactive parts) and a fixed power factor for loads that are predominantly inductive. Furthermore, as the proposed model is a time-dependent system, it is applicable to both sinusoidal and non-sinusoidal case studies. However, the previous model cannot be easily integrated with numeric solvers because it simulated load data over one cycle all together, not sequentially in a time-step manner, due to the limitation involved with the power factor. The improved version, on the contrary, allows the load to be simulated at every time step, which would facilitate its integration with numeric solvers. The model's validity is confirmed by comparing its response with data that is synthesized from constant impedance load, and the result is satisfactory.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

NSTXU Diagnostic Disruption Dynamic Loading Represented by Response Spectra

This article presents the results of transient dynamic simulations of loads due to disruption eddy currents on the NSTXU vacuum vessel. Dynamic loading at diagnostic mounting locations is expressed as response spectra derived from the time history results of the dynamic structural simulations of a variety of disruption scenarios. The disruption simulations draw on a history of the project assessments of worst case disruptions for specific components. Major efforts to assess disruption loading have included the vacuum vessel which is the major structural support for the machine, as well as the passive plates (PPs), high harmonic fast wave (HHFW) antenna, and centerstack casing. Each one of these efforts included transient electromagnetic simulations producing time-dependent eddy current Lorentz loads (and in some cases halo loads) which then were applied to time-dependent structural dynamic analyses intended to obtain the proper dynamic amplification factors. In some instances, the EM model and structural model were identical allowing direct transfer of EM forces to the structural model. In other cases, the EM and structural model were not identical and the vector potential (VP) transfer method was used. The results files from these analyses were available (or re-run) to post process in ANSYS Classic time history postprocessor. In conclusion, the ANSYS command is used to create response spectra from time history data at desired points on the vessel.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observation and Modeling of Dynamic Fracture Behaviors of Battery Cell Under Impact Loading Using Enhanced Representative Volume Element Concept

The burgeoning electric automobile industry has increased interest in battery safety. Battery cells experience significant mechanical stress during operation, including the impact of accidents and vibrations from driving. The potential for thermal runaway reactions in battery cells raises safety concerns. Although numerous researchers have defined the dynamic behavior of battery cells and proposed numerical models to describe it, few studies have focused on the high-strain rate mechanical impact phase correlated with the onset of fracture. In this study, we describe the dynamic behavior of pouch battery cells and propose a modeling method to study their mechanical failure under impact situations. Impact tests are conducted at various velocities and heights. To overcome numerical issues commonly encountered under rapid deformation scenarios, a new finite element model is developed based on the representative volume element model. The proposed approach efficiently simulates continuous crack propagation and brittleness behavior during impact by permitting the individual behavior of the cell components. Therefore, engineers can reliably design safer electric vehicle battery cells by measuring the properties of the cell components.

ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

FPGA-accelerated SpeckleNN with SNL for real-time X-ray single-particle imaging

We present the implementation of a specialized version of our previously published unified embedding model, SpeckleNN, for real-time speckle pattern classification in X-ray Single-Particle Imaging (SPI), using the SLAC Neural Network Library (SNL) on an FPGA platform. This hardware realization transitions SpeckleNN from a prototypic model into a practical edge solution, optimized for running inference near the detector in high-throughput X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) facilities, such as those found at the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS). To address the resource constraints inherent in FPGAs, we developed a more specialized version of SpeckleNN. The original model, which was designed for broader classification across multiple biological samples, comprised ~5.6 million parameters. The new implementation, while reducing the parameter count to 64.6K (a 98.8% reduction), focuses on maintaining the model's essential functionality for real-time operation, achieving an accuracy of 90%. Furthermore, we compressed the latent space from 128 to 50 dimensions. This implementation was demonstrated on the KCU1500 FPGA board, utilizing 71% of available DSPs, 75% of LUTs, and 48% of FFs, with an average power consumption of 9.4W according to the Vivado post-implementation report. The FPGA performed inference on a single image with a latency of 45.015 microseconds at a 200 MHz clock rate. In comparison, running the same inference on an NVIDIA A100 GPU resulted in an average power consumption of ~73W and an image processing latency of around 400 microseconds. Our FPGA-accelerated version of SpeckleNN demonstrated significant improvements, achieving an 8.9 × speedup and a 7.8 × reduction in power consumption compared to the GPU implementation. Key advancements include model specialization and dynamic weight loading through SNL, which eliminates the need for time-consuming FPGA design re-synthesis, allowing fast and continuous deployment of models (re)trained online. These innovations enable real-time adaptive classification and efficient vetoing of speckle patterns, making SpeckleNN more suited for deployment in XFEL facilities. This implementation has the potential to significantly accelerate SPI experiments and enhance adaptability to evolving experimental conditions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking of three DWM-based wake models at below-rated wind speeds

Wind turbine wake models are essential tools for predicting power losses and structural loads in wind farms. Among these, the dynamic wake meandering (DWM) model, included as a recommended approach in the International Electrotechnical Commission design standard, is a widely used engineering-fidelity method that balances accuracy and computational cost. This study compares the performance of three DWM-based wake model implementations (from the Technical University of Denmark, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the Institute for Energy Technology) under below-rated wind speed conditions. Model predictions of wake flow, power output, and structural loads for a four-turbine row are evaluated across different ambient turbulence levels and wind-direction misalignments and compared against high-fidelity large-eddy simulation results. All three models captured the overall wake evolution and mean turbine performance with reasonable accuracy; their predicted time-averaged thrust and power were typically within 5 %–10 % of the large-eddy simulation benchmark. However, notable differences emerged in wake structure and unsteady load predictions, with discrepancies increasing for turbines further downstream. These differences highlight the importance of modelling choices such as wake summation and turbulence treatment, which strongly influence power-deficit and fatigue-load predictions. Comparison with large-eddy simulations reveals each approach's strengths and weaknesses, indicating where improvements are needed. Overall, the findings point to specific refinements for DWM models to improve their fidelity, ultimately enabling more robust wake predictions for wind farm design and operation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Alfalfa Virtual Building Service: Software Engineering Best Practices Applied to Runtime Interaction with Building Energy Models

Buildings are active participants in increasingly complex energy systems. Building Energy Modeling (BEM) has a key role to play in planning and de-risking an equitable energy transition, with BEM-backed "virtual buildings" critical path for diverse applications that include workforce training tools, Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) experimentation to study equipment performance under a range of conditions, Control-Hardware-in-the-Loop (CHIL) experimentation to de-risk commercial control implementations at equipment through grid orchestration levels, and integration of dynamic load profiles into grid modeling tools for energy system experimentation at the urban scale. Modeling requirements vary across these applications, but many software engineering tasks do not. The Alfalfa Virtual Building Service (AVBS, see https://github.com/NREL/alfalfa/wiki) is an open-source web service that solves these common tasks robustly in one place, providing a foundational platform for power users to bootstrap their own applications. AVBS abstracts the specifics of runtime interaction with OpenStudio, Modelica, and Spawn of EnergyPlus models behind a unified REST API. Additionally, AVBS provides resources for cloud deployment and scaling to 100s of parallel simulations, a growing library of modular Operational Technology (OT) integrations for emulation of real-world interfaces, and scripts to automate the population of communities of virtual buildings from URBANopt, ResStock and ComStock.

building automation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal and electric multidomain dynamic model for integration of power grid distribution with behind-the-meter devices

As renewable energy sources like solar and wind power become more integrated into the grid, coordinated control of behind-the-meter devices is crucial for enhancing grid flexibility and reliability and for meeting cost targets, with standardized models being developed to support this transition. The increasing flexibility and uncertainty of integrated renewable energy grids, along with interactions between various subsystems, make traditional steady-state modeling insufficient to capture transient and dynamic behaviors. Current models (e.g., composite load and battery equivalent models) focus on thermodynamic or electrical characteristics but overlook critical electromechanical interactions. This limits the ability to share performance information for grid services and hampers fast dynamic simulations. In addition, motor stalling is usually triggered by a fault event and attributed to the characteristics of the mechanical torque of the motor, resulting in absorption of a large amount of reactive power during the stalling period. Further, this significant withdrawal of reactive power will deteriorate the dynamic voltage stability of power grids and cause delayed voltage recovery. Therefore, an in-depth modeling of the thermodynamics or mechanical torque is essential to study the impacts of the realistic torque characteristics of those behind-the-meter devices on power system voltage stability. This study developed a dynamic multidomain model for building HVAC systems, such as air-source heat pumps, to simulate their thermal and electrical responses to grid transients. The model can accurately predict power metrics with a mean absolute percentage error of 10%, by validating against with power system computer-aided design performance data. Case studies demonstrate the model capability of capturing the transient response to sudden voltage changes, rapid load fluctuations, and system shutdowns respectively. During a sudden voltage drop (30% for 0.1s), a fully loaded heat pump’s motor speed dropped, continued declining, and shut down after 3.6s, with severe power oscillations and a torque spike. A partially loaded unit experienced temporary oscillations but stabilized. Under higher building loads, compressor speed increased from 64% to 100%, with power and torque rising before stabilizing. In safety-triggered shutdowns, power decreased after minor fluctuations, and torque briefly spiked before dropping to zero.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

EXERGETIC: De-Risking Next-Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via At-Scale Evaluation Using Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation

The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding early HIV-1 rebound dynamics following antiretroviral therapy interruption: The importance of effector cell expansion

Most people living with HIV-1 experience rapid viral rebound once antiretroviral therapy is interrupted; however, a small fraction remain in viral remission for an extended duration. Understanding the factors that determine whether viral rebound is likely after treatment interruption can enable the development of optimal treatment regimens and therapeutic interventions to potentially achieve a functional cure for HIV-1. We built upon the theoretical framework proposed by Conway and Perelson to construct dynamic models of virus-immune interactions to study factors that influence viral rebound dynamics. We evaluated these models using viral load data from 24 individuals following antiretroviral therapy interruption. The best-performing model accurately captures the heterogeneity of viral dynamics and highlights the importance of the effector cell expansion rate. Our results show that post-treatment controllers and non-controllers can be distinguished based on the effector cell expansion rate in our models. Furthermore, these results demonstrate the potential of using dynamic models incorporating an effector cell response to understand early viral rebound dynamics post-antiretroviral therapy interruption.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Potential Impacts of Dynamic Electricity Pricing in California: Load Shape and Customer Bill Impacts Under Elastic Customer Response

The increasing penetration of renewable energy in California has intensified grid management challenges, exemplified by the “duck curve” and the resulting need for steep ramping and curtailment of renewables. To address these issues, dynamic electricity tariffs that vary in near-real time are being considered to incentivize customers to shift demand and support the grid. This study extends previous work on the bill impacts of such tariffs in the absence of load response by quantifying the system-level and customer impacts of load response based on customer price elasticity. Customer-level load response modeling was conducted using meter data from 411,000 customers across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Customer demand elasticity was estimated using literature-based values, with scenarios ranging from low to high elasticity, including an automation-enhanced scenario. Results indicate that universal adoption of, and response to, dynamic tariffs can significantly reduce peak net load (by 15%) and maximum ramping requirements (by 20%) with moderate elasticity, delivering demand response resources comparable to or exceeding current programs at all elasticity levels. Bill analysis shows that, when responding elastically to dynamic prices, most non-PV customers experience modest savings, while PV customers may see higher effective rates due to lower compensation for exports during low-price periods. Emissions analysis reveals a reduction in per-kWh emissions system-wide, with a total absolute load increase of 2% accompanied by a negligible absolute emissions increase. The study concludes that while dynamic tariffs offer substantial grid benefits, customer bill savings under modeled response behaviors may be too modest to drive widespread adoption without additional incentives or enabling technologies. Future research should model flexible loads and advanced control technologies with greater fidelity to better represent the potential opportunities of dynamic tariffs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗