Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “dynamic model learning”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning-Based Dynamic Modeling of Three-Phase Voltage Source Inverters

Inverter-based resource (IBR) models are necessary to analyze modern power system stability and create effective control strategies. Modeling IBRs in converter-rich power systems is crucial, yet challenging due to the lack of commercial information on converter topologies and control parameters. This paper proposes novel convolutional neural network (CNN)–based data-driven techniques for modeling IBRs, addressing adaptability and proprietary concerns without requiring internal system physics knowledge. The proposed method is tested using real grid-tied commercial IBR transient data and demonstrates effectiveness and accuracy. Furthermore, the developed modeling approach is integrated and implemented in the open-source power distribution simulation and analysis tool, GridLAB-D, to illustrate the potentiality of dynamic analysis of large-scale power systems with high IBRs.

deep learning, artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2025

An analysis of physics limited dispatch of nuclear renewable integrated energy systems using deep reinforcement learning and dynamic modeling

Previous approaches to dispatching nuclear integrated energy systems (NIES) have focused on the profitability and flexibility of these systems to operate on energy grids with highly variable pricing. However, due to the complexity involved in modeling and designing these systems, there has been less emphasis on ensuring that these dispatch strategies are physically achievable. It is imperative to develop methods that allow the system to remain within the desired NIES operating conditions and perform this based on realistic limited forecasted information. This research employs next generation artificial intelligence, namely deep reinforcement learning (DRL), and a dynamic system model written in Modelica to find a safe and profitable dispatch strategy for a solar nuclear hybrid design. The DRL agent is shown to find a novel dispatch strategy that manages both power ramping and power levels while respecting operational limits. This DRL-based dispatch is compared to other dispatching strategies including an optimal design solution from mixed integer linear programming (MILP). It is found that incorporating the physics of such a tightly coupled NIES limits the profitability of the MILP-based dispatch strategy. As a result, the MILP solution overestimates the design’s generated revenue. In contrast, DRL significantly reduces the number of breaches of safe operational conditions during energy arbitrage while maintaining profitability. Furthermore, this work paves the way for a more detailed assessment of NIES profitability and could be used to aid operator decisions on future NIES projects.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian reduced-order deep learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by partial differential equations

We propose a reduced-order deep-learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by time-dependent partial differential equations. This method employs space–time Karhunen–Loève expansions (KLEs) of the state variables and space-dependent KLEs of space-varying parameters to identify the reduced (latent) dimensions. Subsequently, a deep neural network (DNN) is used to map the parameter latent space to the state variable latent space. An approximate Bayesian method is developed for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the proposed KL-DNN surrogate model. The KL-DNN method is tested for the linear advection–diffusion and nonlinear diffusion equations, and the Bayesian approach for UQ is compared with the deep ensembling (DE) approach, commonly used for quantifying uncertainty in DNN models. It was found that the approximate Bayesian method provides a more informative distribution of the PDE solutions in terms of the coverage of the reference PDE solutions (the percentage of nodes where the reference solution is within the confidence interval predicted by the UQ methods) and log predictive probability. The DE method is found to underestimate uncertainty and introduce bias. For the nonlinear diffusion equation, we compare the KL-DNN method with the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) method and find that KL-DNN is 10% more accurate and needs less training time than the FNO method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Building thermal dynamics modeling with deep transfer learning using a large residential smart thermostat dataset

Understanding thermal dynamics and obtaining the computational model of residential buildings enable its scaled application in energy retrofits, control optimization and decarbonization. In this paper, we present a deep learning approach to model building thermal dynamics with smart thermostat data collected from residential buildings, with the goal to investigate model generalizability. In the first stage, we developed and compared different Deep Learning architectures including Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models and CNN-LSTM to predict indoor air temperature in a multi-step time horizon. In the second stage, we implemented a Transfer Learning (TL) process, which aims to improve the prediction performance on a new set of buildings (targets), exploiting the knowledge of related or similar buildings (sources). Different TL strategies and source model identification methods were investigated. The study showed that the CNN-LSTM performed the best among the architectures compared, with an average Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.26 °C for one-hour-ahead (twelve 5-min future steps) predictions. Furthermore, the results showed that freezing the LSTM layer and fine-tuning the other layers of the CNN-LSTM achieved the best performance among four TL strategies, which further improved the performance with respect to a machine learning approach by 10%, and proving the effectiveness and generalizability of the proposed approach. A comparison of three different source model identification methods showed that randomly selecting source models constrained by similar building characteristics can provide good TL performance while retaining simplicity comparing with other quantitative source identification methods.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine-learning modeling of magnetization dynamics in quasi-equilibrium and driven metallic spin systems

Here, we present a perspective on recent progress in machine-learning (ML) force-field approaches for large-scale Landau–Lifshitz–Gilbert (LLG) simulations of metallic spin systems. Building on a generalization of the Behler–Parrinello (BP) architecture originally developed for quantum molecular dynamics, we develop scalable and transferable ML models that faithfully capture the complex, environment-dependent electron-mediated exchange fields characteristic of itinerant magnets. A central ingredient of this framework is the implementation of symmetry-aware magnetic descriptors based on group-theoretical bispectrum formalisms. Leveraging these ML force fields, LLG simulations faithfully reproduce hallmark non-collinear magnetic orders—such as the 120° and tetrahedral states—on the triangular lattice, and successfully capture the complex spin textures emerging in the mixed-phase states of a square-lattice double-exchange model under thermal quench. We further discuss a generalized potential theory that extends the BP formalism to incorporate both conservative and nonconservative electronic torques, thereby enabling ML models to learn nonequilibrium exchange fields from computationally demanding microscopic approaches such as nonequilibrium Green’s-function techniques. This extension yields quantitatively accurate predictions of voltage-driven domain-wall motion and establishes a foundation for quantum-accurate, multiscale modeling of nonequilibrium spin dynamics and spintronic functionalities.

Descriptors↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Generation-Storage Coordination Dispatch Strategy for Power System Based on Causal Reinforcement Learning

In the backdrop of global energy transformation, power systems integrating high proportions of renewable energy sources are facing unprecedented challenges in operational stability and dispatch efficiency. To address these challenges, this study introduces a generation-storage coordination real-time dispatch strategy based on Causal Power System Dynamic Reinforcement Learning (CPSDRL). Diverging from traditional reinforcement learning approaches, CPSDRL innovatively incorporates causal inference within the state prediction model - the crux of model-based reinforcement learning - thereby establishing the Power Causal Dynamic Model (PCDM). Assisted by the prior knowledge of power systems, the model significantly enhances prediction accuracy and reliability through a two-stage training process. Utilizing PCDM, this study further applies a direct policy search algorithm to optimize the real-time dispatch strategy. Experimental results indicate that the proposed method improves the stability of generation-storage coordination real-time dispatch and exhibits competitive advantages in sample efficiency and computational speed, compared to traditional model-based and model-free reinforcement learning algorithms. This method is expected to enhance the practicality and adaptability of causal reinforcement learning techniques in power system scheduling and control.

causal reinforcement learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Moving beyond post hoc explainable artificial intelligence: a perspective paper on lessons learned from dynamical climate modeling

AI models are criticized as being black boxes, potentially subjecting climate science to greater uncertainty. Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) has been proposed to probe AI models and increase trust. In this review and perspective paper, we suggest that, in addition to using XAI methods, AI researchers in climate science can learn from past successes in the development of physics-based dynamical climate models. Dynamical models are complex but have gained trust because their successes and failures can sometimes be attributed to specific components or sub-models, such as when model bias is explained by pointing to a particular parameterization. We propose three types of understanding as a basis to evaluate trust in dynamical and AI models alike: (1) instrumental understanding, which is obtained when a model has passed a functional test; (2) statistical understanding, obtained when researchers can make sense of the modeling results using statistical techniques to identify input–output relationships; and (3) component-level understanding, which refers to modelers' ability to point to specific model components or parts in the model architecture as the culprit for erratic model behaviors or as the crucial reason why the model functions well. We demonstrate how component-level understanding has been sought and achieved via climate model intercomparison projects over the past several decades. Such component-level understanding routinely leads to model improvements and may also serve as a template for thinking about AI-driven climate science. Currently, XAI methods can help explain the behaviors of AI models by focusing on the mapping between input and output, thereby increasing the statistical understanding of AI models. Yet, to further increase our understanding of AI models, we will have to build AI models that have interpretable components amenable to component-level understanding. We give recent examples from the AI climate science literature to highlight some recent, albeit limited, successes in achieving component-level understanding and thereby explaining model behavior. The merit of such interpretable AI models is that they serve as a stronger basis for trust in climate modeling and, by extension, downstream uses of climate model data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

SDYN-GANs: Adversarial learning methods for multistep generative models for general order stochastic dynamics

We introduce adversarial learning methods for data-driven generative modeling of dynamics of nth-order stochastic systems. Our approach builds on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) with generative model classes based on stable m-step stochastic numerical integrators. From observations of trajectory samples, we introduce methods for learning long-time predictors and stable representations of the dynamics. Our approaches use discriminators based on Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), training protocols using both conditional and marginal distributions, and methods for learning dynamic responses over different time-scales. We show how our approaches can be used for modeling physical systems to learn force-laws, damping coefficients, and noise-related parameters. Our adversarial learning approaches provide methods for obtaining stable generative models for dynamic tasks including long-time prediction and developing simulations for stochastic systems.

• Artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine-learning force-field models for dynamical simulations of metallic magnets

We review recent advances in machine-learning (ML) force-field methods for Landau–Lifshitz–Gilbert simulations of itinerant electron magnets, focusing on their scalability and transferability. Built on the principle of locality, a deep neural-network model is developed to efficiently and accurately predict electron-mediated forces governing spin dynamics. Symmetry-aware descriptors constructed through a group-theoretical approach ensure rigorous incorporation of both lattice and spin-rotation symmetries. The framework is demonstrated using the prototypical s-d exchange model widely employed in spintronics. ML-enabled large-scale simulations reveal novel nonequilibrium phenomena, including anomalous coarsening of tetrahedral spin order on the triangular lattice and the freezing of phase-separation dynamics in lightly hole-doped, strong-coupling square-lattice systems. These results establish ML force-field frameworks as scalable, accurate, and versatile tools for modeling nonequilibrium spin dynamics in itinerant magnets.

Artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2024

DeepPhenoMem V1.0: deep learning modelling of canopy greenness dynamics accounting for multi-variate meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology

Abstract. Vegetation phenology plays a key role in controlling the seasonality of ecosystem processes that modulate carbon, water and energy fluxes between the biosphere and atmosphere. Accurate modelling of vegetation phenology in the interplay of Earth's surface and the atmosphere is thus crucial to understand how the coupled system will respond to and shape climatic changes. Phenology is controlled by meteorological conditions at different timescales: on the one hand, changes in key meteorological variables (temperature, water, radiation) can have immediate effects on the vegetation development; on the other hand, phenological changes can be driven by past environmental conditions, known as memory effects. However, the processes governing meteorological memory effects on phenology are not completely understood, resulting in their limited performance of vegetation phenology represented in land surface models. A deep learning model, specifically a long short-term memory network (LSTM), has the potential to capture and model the meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology. Here, we apply the LSTM to model the vegetation phenology using meteorological drivers and high-temporal-resolution canopy greenness observations through digital repeat photography by the PhenoCam network. We compare a multiple linear regression model, a no-memory-effect LSTM model and a full-memory-effect LSTM model to predict the whole seasonal greenness trajectory and the corresponding phenological transition dates across 50 sites and 317 site years during 2009–2018, covering deciduous broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and grasslands. Results show that the deep learning model outperforms the multiple linear regression model, and the full-memory-effect LSTM model performs better than the no-memory-effect model for all three plant function types (median R2 of 0.878, 0.957 and 0.955 for broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and grasslands). We also find that the full-memory-effect LSTM model is capable of predicting the seasonal dynamic variations of canopy greenness and reproducing trends in shifting phenological transition dates. We also performed a sensitivity analysis of the full-memory-effect LSTM model to assess its plausibility, revealing its coherence with established knowledge of vegetation phenology sensitivity to meteorological conditions, particularly changes in temperature. Our study highlights that (1) multi-variate meteorological memory effects play a crucial role in vegetation phenology, and (2) deep learning opens up new avenues for improving the representation of vegetation phenological processes in land surface models via a hybrid modelling approach.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Learning continuous models for continuous physics

Abstract Dynamical systems that evolve continuously over time are ubiquitous throughout science and engineering. Machine learning (ML) provides data-driven approaches to model and predict the dynamics of such systems. A core issue with this approach is that ML models are typically trained on discrete data, using ML methodologies that are not aware of underlying continuity properties. This results in models that often do not capture any underlying continuous dynamics—either of the system of interest, or indeed of any related system. To address this challenge, we develop a convergence test based on numerical analysis theory. Our test verifies whether a model has learned a function that accurately approximates an underlying continuous dynamics. Models that fail this test fail to capture relevant dynamics, rendering them of limited utility for many scientific prediction tasks; while models that pass this test enable both better interpolation and better extrapolation in multiple ways. Our results illustrate how principled numerical analysis methods can be coupled with existing ML training/testing methodologies to validate models for science and engineering applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning dynamical systems from data: An introduction to physics-guided deep learning

Modeling complex physical dynamics is a fundamental task in science and engineering. Traditional physics-based models are first-principled, explainable, and sample-efficient. However, they often rely on strong modeling assumptions and expensive numerical integration, requiring significant computational resources and domain expertise. While deep learning (DL) provides efficient alternatives for modeling complex dynamics, they require a large amount of labeled training data. Furthermore, its predictions may disobey the governing physical laws and are difficult to interpret. Physics-guided DL aims to integrate first-principled physical knowledge into data-driven methods. It has the best of both worlds and is well equipped to better solve scientific problems. Recently, this field has gained great progress and has drawn considerable interest across discipline Here, we introduce the framework of physics-guided DL with a special emphasis on learning dynamical systems. We describe the learning pipeline and categorize state-of-the-art methods under this framework. We also offer our perspectives on the open challenges and emerging opportunities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Generative AI models for learning flow maps of stochastic dynamical systems in bounded domains

Simulating stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in bounded domains, presents significant computational challenges due to particle exit phenomena, which requires accurate modeling of interior stochastic dynamics and boundary interactions. Despite the success of machine learning-based methods in learning SDEs, existing learning methods are not applicable to SDEs in bounded domains because they cannot accurately capture the particle exit dynamics. We present a unified hybrid data-driven approach that combines a conditional diffusion model with an exit prediction neural network to capture both interior stochastic dynamics and boundary exit phenomena. Our ML model consists of two major components: a neural network that learns exit probabilities using binary cross-entropy loss with rigorous convergence guarantees, and a training-free diffusion model that generates state transitions for non-exiting particles using closed-form score functions. The two components are integrated through a probabilistic sampling algorithm that determines particle exit at each time step and generates appropriate state transitions. Here, the performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated via three test cases: a one-dimensional simplified problem for theoretical verification, a two-dimensional advection-diffusion problem in a bounded domain, and a three-dimensional problem of interest to magnetically confined fusion plasmas.

Bounded domains↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data-Driven Modeling and Correction of Vehicle Dynamics

We develop a data-driven framework for learning and correcting nonautonomous vehicle dynamics. Physics-based vehicle models are often simplified for tractability and therefore exhibit inherent model-form uncertainty, motivating the need for data-driven correction. Moreover, nonautonomous dynamics are governed by time-dependent control inputs, which pose challenges in learning predictive models directly from temporal snapshot data. To address these, we reformulate the vehicle dynamics via a local parameterization of the time-dependent inputs, yielding a modified system composed ofa sequence of local parametric dynamical systems. Here, we approximate these parametric systems using two complementary approaches. First, we employ the dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space (DRIPS) methodology to construct efficient linear surrogate models, equipped with lifted observable spaces and manifold-based operator interpolation. This enables data-efficient learning of vehicle models whose dynamics admit accurate linear representations in the lifted spaces. Second, for more strongly nonlinear systems, we employ flow map learning (FML), a deep neural network (DNN) approach that approximates the parametric evolution map without requiring special treatment of nonlinearities. We further extend FML with a transfer-learning-based model correction procedure, enabling the correction of misspecified prior models using only a sparse set of high-fidelity or experimental measurements, without assuming a prescribed form for the correction term. Through a suite of numerical experiments on unicycle, simplified bicycle, and slip-based bicycle models, we demonstrate that DRIPS offers robust and highly data-efficient learning of nonautonomous vehicle dynamics, while FML provides expressive nonlinear modeling and effective correction of model-form errors under severe data scarcity.

data-driven modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Achieving Cyber-Resilience for Power Systems using a Learning, Model-Assisted Blockchain Framework

The secure integration and management of distributed energy resources (DER) and power aggregators in the electric grid requires secure communications and a physics-aware Command and Control (C2) strategy. A Blockchain (BC)-based overlay network was developed to provide a security layer for the existing power grid network that mitigates risks in current and legacy network and C2 protocols. By integrating a Model-Assisted Machine Learning (MAML) framework with a Secure Blockchain Overlay Network (SBON) a defense-in-depth strategy was achieved. In our approach, the MAML framework leveraged a smart contract framework to gather network data and learn the dynamics of DER to develop detection strategies for attacks targeting sensors and actuators used by DER. The MAML framework learned dynamical systems models for individual DERs to detect sensor attacks. For DER we utilized a Digital Twin (DT) to accelerate the learning process for a model resistant to stealthy attacks. The project created DT for PV inverters and BESS. The DTs were coupled with a model-assisted, data-driven learning of DER behavior. Specifically, we evaluated architectures for model-based learning with model-free fine-tuning. Additionally, differential privacy techniques were used to obfuscate data, while still allowing the computation of attack detection results based on obfuscated data. The SBON developed leverages a private permissioned blockchain network orchestrated with the Hyperledger Fabric framework. To connect the cyber world, which orchestrates the blockchain fabric, and the physical world where the power network resides, we developed a system implementation to enable the secure interaction of the physical world and the abstracted blockchain.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗