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Using the Dynamic Networks Experiment 2 (DNE2) human-analyst event bulletin picks as a baseline signal detection dataset, we generate 47 additional datasets by gradually reducing their accuracy and completeness by randomly removing DNE2 picks, changing the initial phase labels from P to S and vice-versa, and injecting noise detections to simulate real-world signal detection algorithms.
Natural fiber composites are inexpensive and renewable alternatives to traditional fiber reinforced polymers (FRPs). However, existing natural fiber composites primarily rely on petrochemical based thermosetting matrices, which are difficult to recycle due to their stable crosslinked network structures. To address this challenge, it is desirable to develop natural fiber composites with inherently recyclable biobased matrices. In this study, we developed a dual dynamic network vitrimer matrix from hempseed oil and limonene derivatives and demonstrated its application in hemp fiber reinforced composites. To improve the weak interface between hemp fiber and the polymer matrix, a common challenge in the realm of natural fiber composites, we directly incorporated amino silane into the vitrimer matrix. The amino silane participated in the polymer network, increasing the crosslink density and toughening the matrix, as evidenced by a significantly improved impact strength from 3.5 kJ/m 2 to 10.3 kJ/m 2 . Moreover, the incorporation of amino silane resulted in a lower water absorption by 11% in 7-day soaking for the composites, demonstrating improved fiber/matrix interfacial interaction. Furthermore, our biobased vitrimer matrix exhibits both imine and hydroxy-ester dynamic bonds, which enable the recycling of the biocomposite through a mild and cost-effective aminolysis process (100°C, 3h, ambient pressure). The decomposed polymer matrix was successfully reused as a polyol for polyurethane adhesives, and the surface morphology of recovered hemp fibers was analyzed and compared with that of the original fibers. Furthermore, these findings will help broaden the use of vitrimers for practical natural fiber composite applications, raise awareness of the problem of recycling natural fiber composite waste, and shed light on the interfacial challenge of natural fiber reinforced vitrimer composites.
This paper presents several stability analyses for grid-forming inverters and synchronous generators considering the dynamics of transmission lines and different load models. Load models are usually of secondary importance compared to generation source models, but as the results show, they play a crucial role in stability studies with the introduction of inverter-based resources. Given inverter control time scales, the implications of considering or neglecting electromagnetic transients of the network are very relevant in the stability assessments. In this paper, we perform eigenvalue analyses for inverter-based resources and synchronous machines connected to a load and explore the effects of multiples models under different network representations. We explore maximum loadability of inverter-based resources and synchronous machines, while analyzing the effects of load and network dynamic models on small-signal stability. The results show that the network representation plays a fundamental role in the stability of the system of different load models. The resulting stability regions are significantly different depending on the source and load model considered.
We describe an ongoing series of virtual experiments conducted collaboratively by four United States National Laboratories: Sandia National Laboratories, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These Dynamic Network Experiments (DNEs) provide an experimental framework to evaluate the potential impact of new research tools on nuclear explosion monitoring. The second DNE (DNE2), completed in 2024, exploited waveform data (seismic, infrasound, and electromagnetic) that was recorded by multi-modal sensors within and near the Nevada National Security Site and synthetic radionuclide signatures over multiple time periods. During the execution of DNE2, we processed and analyzed data through a multi-stage event processing pipeline that ingested raw data, performed quality control, detected signals, built events from these signals, located these events, and characterized the events’ source types and sizes. For each stage and over the entire event processing pipeline, we evaluated performance changes by comparing the performance of new data processing methods, models, and algorithms against a baseline. We also performed an additional execution phase to assess event processing pipeline function, speed, and efficiency against that of an expert analyst, including computational and manual efforts. Finally, we assessed the impact and effort of modern computing infrastructure on the monitoring pipeline. This paper describes key elements of the DNEs, from formulation through execution, as demonstrated in DNE2. The DNEs introduce several novel concepts to quantitatively measure the potential impact of new methods on explosion monitoring, including the collaborative design of multi-modal datasets, performance and logistical metrics, and integrated analyses.
The impact of curing conditions on the final properties of thioester-thiol-based dynamic polymer networks was systematically investigated. Despite identical monomer and cross-linker compositions, networks synthesized in the absence of solvent exhibited significantly higher shear moduli and longer relaxation times compared to those cured in solvent. These differences arise from viscosity-controlled photoinitiated thiol–ene reactions, where reduced chain mobility under solvent-free conditions suppresses termination between two polymer radicals, leading to higher reaction conversion. Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy and solid-state NMR (ssNMR) spectroscopy confirmed a greater degree of “click” reaction completion in higher viscosity environments. Control experiments revealed that prolonged radical lifetimes and suppressed termination reactions under solvent-free curing conditions contribute to these variations. Here, this study highlights the crucial role of processing conditions in determining cross-link density and, consequently, the dynamic mechanical behavior of polymer networks. It demonstrates that, beyond polymer chemistry, dynamic cross-linker design, and phase separation, curing conditions serve as a key design parameter for tailoring material performance to specific applications.
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Item Purpose: Presentation of LYNM DN DNE2 at the AFRL TIM. Internal Peer Review Status: This item has completed internal peer review. HQ review status: This item has been reviewed and approved by HQ.
A dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN)-based fault prognosis framework is proposed in this study to predict the future fault probabilities of gradual faults. The proposed framework utilizes the trend in prediction error generated from data driven forecasting models to estimate the future fault beliefs. The accuracy and scalability of the proposed method is evaluated using the data from a Modelica-based virtual testbed. Overall, the developed framework demonstrates good potential in estimating future fault probabilities of gradual faults.
A Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model for solar power generation forecasting in solar plants is proposed in this paper. The key idea is to fuse sensor data, operational indicators, meteorological data, lagged output power information, and model errors for more accurate short-term (e.g., hours) and mid-term (e.g., days to weeks) power generation forecasting. The proposed DBN augments automated data-driven structure learning with expert knowledge encoding using continuous and categorical data given constraints to represent causal relationships within a solar inverter system. Additionally, an error compensation mechanism is proposed to capture temporal fluctuation. The effectiveness of the DBN on solar power generation forecasting was evaluated by rolling window analysis with one-year testing data collected from a local solar plant. The proposed DBN is compared with four state-of-art methods including support-vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), artificial neural network (ANN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. The result show that the proposed DBN achieves better accuracy in general, and it is not as data-hungry as some neural network-based models. The proposed DBN is also shown to have robust and consistent forecasting power with different forecasting horizons. The accuracy is 92% - 95% from one hour to one week ahead forecasting.
This study presents a dynamic demographic microsimulator using dynamic Bayesian networks to forecast long–term changes in household and individual life events. Leveraging longitudinal Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data, two networks for individuals and households were modeled to simulate transitions in employment, income, education, marriage, childbirth, leaving the parental home, home ownership, mortality, and household formation or dissolution. Across 1,000 simulation runs spanning 24 years, household–level outcomes remain highly accurate and individual–level predictions reasonable. Although accuracy naturally declines with projection horizon, performance remains promising at both levels. This study addresses a key limitation of existing population synthesis models, which typically generate only a single static snapshot of the population. In conclusion, by introducing a framework that propagates cross-sectional outputs into the future, the microsimulator enables the tracking of demographic evolution over time, enhances realism in population-based simulations, and supplies credible inputs to agent-based travel demand models.
SAND2025-07645O Conin is a Python library that supports constrained analysis of probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). It enables constrained inference and learning for hidden Markov models, Bayesian networks, dynamic Bayesian networks, and Markov networks. Conin interfaces with the pgmpy library to specify general probabilistic graphical models with a variety of optimization solvers to support learning and inference. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.
The Dynamic Networks (DN) Experiment for FY24 (DNE2) is an experiment within DN with the goal of quantitatively evaluating the effectiveness of solutions developed so far by various researchers under the Low Yield Nuclear Monitoring (LYNM) program using a shared set of metrics and datasets. A key component of this experiment is the mimicking of a signature processing pipeline, and comparing currently accepted and standard-use processing methods to more state-of-the-art processes developed under DN. In this work, we focus specifically on the Event Characterization (EC) Focus Area (FA) of the pipeline, where a seismic event’s magnitude, yield and class are identified. We use Deep Learning (DL) to classify the type of events being processed as either earthquakes (EQs) or explosions (EXs) for three iterations of experiment datasets. The model is noticeably more confident and accurate in classifying explosions than earthquakes, reflecting a known shortcoming of the model, that being of a bias towards predicting explosions over earthquakes in the west coast due to training data biases.
Much success was achieved throughout the course of this project. A successful implementation of Dynamic Neural Network Optimization (D-NNO) was coupled with Adaptive Predictive Controls (APC) and a novel hardware installation comprised of an advanced sensor network (ASN) measuring mass-weighted averages of flue gas constituents above the horizontal superheater of a coal-fired utility boiler. From 2019 through 2023 (including an extension due to COVID delays), the team was able to prototype, evaluate, deploy, iterate, and ultimately finalize an advanced closed-loop control D-NNO system which demonstrated the ability to: •improve unit efficiency ~2.0% relative to unoptimized operation (represented as total fuel fired per MWh generated) •improve unit NOx emission rates 10%+ beyond static optimization baselines •improve unit temperature stability as much as 58% and on average 12% •improve operating load stability as much as 35% The culmination of this project has generated an advanced methodology of deploying specially designed recurrent neural networks (long short-term memory, gated recurrent unit, encoder-decoder networks, transformers, etc.), customized trajectory planning and closed-loop optimization modules capable of adapting to live electric grid responses and demands, self-tuning and adaptive expert controls constantly adjusting prediction parameters to real-time unit behavior, and a hardware/software package able to reliably calculate net unit heat rate (NUHR) in real-time using flue gas constituents, machine learning, and known combustion relationships. Through this real-time NUHR value, immediate feedback on system adjustments relative to operating efficiency was available, allowing for rapid improvements to system performance. In addition to development and deployment of the advanced D-NNO system, the approach methodology has been readily commercialized through the project platform Griffin Open Systems, LLC, the D-NNO software platform host. Similar methodologies to those developed by this project have already been deployed at 5 other units across the United States, with another 6 implementations scheduled, and more expected. Over the course of the project, multiple academic papers were submitted and accepted for publication within esteemed academic journals, and PhD students were trained and graduated, as well as undergraduate students becoming involved and participating to project objectives.
The increasing penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) into the existing power systems introduces tremendous benefits for enhanced sustainability but also poses inevitable challenges in terms of insufficient inertia, potential instability, and complex network dynamics, among others. However, the additional coupling introduced by the interactions among gridfollowing (GFL) and grid-forming (GFM) IBRs and the other components (i.e., synchronous generators [SGs], loads, and network, etc.) has not been clearly explored. A holistic, scalable, and quantitative stability analysis framework with the control systems and power networks is still missing. Here, in this paper, to fill in the technical gaps, a holistic small-signal model of the entire system with both rotating generation units and IBRs is established. An extended power flow model with operation dynamics from both generator control schemes and power networks is proposed to provide the varying steady-state operating points for small-signal modeling. The proposed method is compared with MATLAB solvers, and the results show that the proposed approach has a minimum calculation time, which can be less than 12 seconds for a large-scale power system with up to 2,000 buses. Furthermore, a quantitative method is developed to identify the impacts of IBRs on system performance with emphases on the potential stability issues with GFL IBRs, additional benefits of employing GFM IBRs, the feasibility of replacing SGs with GFM IBRs, and the impact of penetration level of different kinds of generation units. Finally, a field island power system is used to verify the proposed approach, and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) tests are provided to further demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed analysis.
Physical networks formed by ionizable polymers with ionic clusters as crosslinks are controlled by coupled dynamics that transcend from ionic clusters through chain motion to macroscopic response. Here, the coupled dynamics, across length scales, from the ionic clusters to the networks in toluene swollen polystyrene sulfonate networks, were directly correlated, as the electrostatic environment of the physical crosslinks was altered. The multiscale insight is attained by coupling neutron spin echo measurements with molecular dynamics simulations, carried out to times typical of relaxation of polymers in solutions. The experimental dynamic structure factor is in outstanding agreement with the one calculated from computer simulations, as the networks are perturbed by elevating the temperature and changing the electrostatic environment. In toluene, the long-lived clusters remain stable over hundreds of ns across a broad temperature range, while the polymer network remains dynamic. In conclusion, though the size of the clusters changes as the dielectric constant of the solvent is modified through the addition of ethanol, they remain stable but morph, enhancing the polymer chain dynamics.
Dynamic networks composed of constituents that break and reform bonds reversibly are ubiquitous in nature owing to their modular architectures that enable functions like energy dissipation, self-healing, and even activity. While bond breaking depends only on the current configuration of attachment in these networks, reattachment depends also on the proximity of constituents. Therefore, dynamic networks composed of macroscale constituents (not benefited by the secondary interactions cohering analogous networks composed of molecular-scale constituents) must rely on primary bonds for cohesion and self-repair. Toward understanding how such macroscale networks might adaptively achieve this, we explore the uniaxial tensile response of 2D rafts composed of interlinked fire ants ( S. invicta ). Through experiments and discrete numerical modeling, we find that ant rafts adaptively stabilize their bonded ant-to-ant interactions in response to tensile strains, indicating catch bond dynamics. Consequently, low-strain rates that should theoretically induce creep mechanics of these rafts instead induce elastic-like response. Our results suggest that this force-stabilization delays dissolution of the rafts and improves toughness. Nevertheless, above 35 % strain low cohesion and stress localization cause nucleation and growth of voids whose coalescence patterns result from force-stabilization. These voids mitigate structural repair until initial raft densities are restored and ants can reconnect across defects. However mechanical recovery of ant rafts during cyclic loading suggests that—even upon reinstatement of initial densities—ants exhibit slower repair kinetics if they were recently loaded at faster strain rates. These results exemplify fire ants’ status as active agents capable of memory-driven, stimuli-response for potential inspiration of adaptive structural materials.
We undertook a detailed rheological investigation to evaluate the kinetic parameters of the forward and reverse Diels–Alder (DA) reactions of a model network cross-linked using a furan prepolymer and a common aromatic bismaleimide. At high temperature where the Winter–Chambon’s criterion of frequency-independence was more applicable, a multiwave technique permitted van’t Hoff analysis and calculation of the reaction thermodynamic parameters, specifically the enthalpy and entropy of the reaction: ΔH° = –38.3 ± 5.2 kJ mol –1 and ΔS° = –94.3 ± 13.4 J mol –1 . At mild temperatures where the G'–G" crossover point is experimentally convenient to measure gelation, isothermal tests were used to obtain reasonable fDA kinetic parameters from Eyring analysis such as the apparent activation enthalpy and entropy of ΔH$^{‡}_{fDA}$ = 76.8 ± 6.9 kJ mol –1 and ΔS$^{‡}_{fDA}$= –82.8 ± 22.2 J mol –1 K –1 . Comparable rheokinetic methods include cross-linking density measurements and stress relaxation tests to calculate effective kinetics, whereas the critical gel conversion was consistently applied here. As a result, rate data are fitted with the Arrhenius equation for comparison purposes and the Eyring equation to demonstrate its broader utility.
Abstract Oxide ceramic electrolytes (OCEs) have great potential for solid-state lithium metal (Li 0 ) battery applications because, in theory, their high elastic modulus provides better resistance to Li 0 dendrite growth. However, in practice, OCEs can hardly survive critical current densities higher than 1 mA/cm 2 . Key issues that contribute to the breakdown of OCEs include Li 0 penetration promoted by grain boundaries (GBs), uncontrolled side reactions at electrode-OCE interfaces, and, equally importantly, defects evolution (e.g., void growth and crack propagation) that leads to local current concentration and mechanical failure inside and on OCEs. Here, taking advantage of a dynamically crosslinked aprotic polymer with non-covalent –CH 3 ⋯CF 3 bonds, we developed a plastic ceramic electrolyte (PCE) by hybridizing the polymer framework with ionically conductive ceramics. Using in-situ synchrotron X-ray technique and Cryogenic transmission electron microscopy (Cryo-TEM), we uncover that the PCE exhibits self-healing/repairing capability through a two-step dynamic defects removal mechanism. This significantly suppresses the generation of hotspots for Li 0 penetration and chemomechanical degradations, resulting in durability beyond 2000 hours in Li 0 -Li 0 cells at 1 mA/cm 2 . Furthermore, by introducing a polyacrylate buffer layer between PCE and Li 0 -anode, long cycle life >3600 cycles was achieved when paired with a 4.2 V zero-strain cathode, all under near-zero stack pressure.