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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2005

Recent Advances in Radar Polarimetry and Polarimetric SAR Interferometry

The development of Radar Polarimetry and Radar Interferometry is advancing rapidly, and these novel radar technologies are revamping Synthetic Aperture Radar Imaging decisively. In this exposition the successive advancements are sketched; beginning with the fundamental formulations and high-lighting the salient points of these diverse remote sensing techniques. Whereas with radar polarimetry the textural fine-structure, target-orientation and shape, symmetries and material constituents can be recovered with considerable improvements above that of standard amplitude-only Polarization Radar ; with radar interferometry the spatial (in depth) structure can be explored. In Polarimetric-Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (POL-IN-SAR) Imaging it is possible to recover such co-registered textural plus spatial properties simultaneously. This includes the extraction of Digital Elevation Maps (DEM) from either fully Polarimetric (scattering matrix) or Interferometric (dual antenna) SAR image data takes with the additional benefit of obtaining co-registered three-dimensional POL-IN-DEM information. Extra-Wide-Band POL-IN-SAR Imaging - when applied to Repeat-Pass Image Overlay Interferometry - provides differential background validation and measurement, stress assessment, and environmental stress-change monitoring capabilities with hitherto unattained accuracy, which are essential tools for improved global biomass estimation. More recently, by applying multiple parallel repeat-pass EWB-POL-D(RP)-IN-SAR imaging along stacked (altitudinal) or displaced (horizontal) flight-lines will result in Tomographic (Multi- Interferometric) Polarimetric SAR Stereo-Imaging , including foliage and ground penetrating capabilities. It is shown that the accelerated advancement of these modern EWB-POL-D(RP)-IN-SAR imaging techniques is of direct relevance and of paramount priority to wide-area dynamic homeland security surveillance and local-to-global environmental ground-truth measurement and validation, stress assessment, and stress-change monitoring of the terrestrial and planetary covers. In addition, various closely related topics of (i) acquiring additional and protecting existing spectral windows of the Natural Electromagnetic Spectrum (NES) pertinent to Remote Sensing; (ii) mitigating against common "Radio Frequency Interference (RFI)" and intentional Directive Jamming of Airborne & Space borne POL-IN-SAR Imaging Platforms are appraised.

Boerner, Wolfgang-Martin↗
NASA NTRS1995

An Overview of ANN Application in the Power Industry

The paper presents a survey on the development and experience with artificial neural net (ANN) applications for electric power systems, with emphasis on operational systems. The organization and constraints of electric utilities are reviewed, motivations for investigating ANN are identified, and a current assessment is given from the experience of 2400 projects using ANN for load forecasting, alarm processing, fault detection, component fault diagnosis, static and dynamic security analysis, system planning, and operation planning.

artificial neural networks ANN electric power syst↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Solar System Beyond Neptune

The aim of this research is to study the objects in the Kuiper Belt, in order to understand the nature of its origin and the evolutionary processes which have affected the Kuiper Belt. Particular science objectives include: 1) the determination of the sky-plane surface density of Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs); 2) the determination of the slope of the cumulative luminosity function (CLF); 3) the determination of the KBO size distribution; 4) the isolation of bright KBOs from which physical measurements can be secured using existing 10-meter diameter class telescopes; 5) physical measurements of bright KBOs designed to assess their composition. Major results obtained under the grant include: 1) The determination of the surface density of KBOs (objects per square degree of sky) as a function of apparent red magnitude in the range 21 less than MR less than 24.8. 2) The discovery of a new dynamical class in the Kuiper Belt, exemplified by 1996 TL66. 3) Physical observations of two bright KBOs were secured using the Keck 10-meter telescope and an infrared imager/spectrometer; 4) In support of public interest in the Kuiper Belt, we wrote a popular article for Scientific American magazine and we developed a "Kuiper Belt Home Page" on the world-wide web.

Jewitt, David↗
NASA NTRS2023

Risks of Synchronized Low Yields Are Underestimated in Climate and Crop Model Projections

Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security. Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger such events, but so far this has not been quantified. Specifically, the ability of state-of-the art crop and climate models to adequately reproduce such high impact events is a crucial component for estimating risks to global food security. Here we find an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models. While climate models accurately simulate atmospheric patterns, associated surface weather anomalies and negative effects on crop responses are mostly underestimated in bias-adjusted simulations. Given the identified model biases, future assessments of regional and concurrent crop losses from meandering jet states remain highly uncertain. Our results suggest that model-blind spots for such high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards have to be anticipated and accounted for in meaningful climate risk assessments.

Atmospheric dynamics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

LIS-Hydro: Authoritative Source for OCONUS Hydro-Intelligence

U.S. military forces are often tasked to participate in a variety of transboundary water-related decision-making activities, including humanitarian assistance operations through Department of State tasking, support of in-country infrastructure development activities that help develop or improve diplomatic relationships, and support of transboundary water treaty negotiations or disputes to reduce risk of conflict caused by water security issues. The U.S. intelligence communities have identified the coordination over shared water resources as an area of significant concern to U.S. national security (U.S. National Defense Strategy, 2018). Such transboundary water issues are projected to intensify in the future under increasingly complex population dynamics, political tensions due to parallel issues, and a changing climate. A 2017 joint NASA, USACE/RDC, and U.S. Air Force co-sponsored workshop revealed a lack of sufficient decision support tools and access to timely technical and contextual information needed to assess and respond to potential water-related threats around the world. The need for an integrated operational service, with the capacity to combine and synthesize hydrological modeling, assimilation, forecasting, and visualization capabilities across the U.S. Government, was highlighted as a key recommendation. In direct response, a subset of the U.S. Department of Defense, National Intelligence Community, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory are collaborating on the development of a fully integrated hydro-modeling and streamflow prediction system (i.e., LIS-Hydro). Completion of the project and sustainment of the operational capability by Air Force Weather will establish a national asset to assist federal agencies implement government-wide strategies around water resources (U.S. Global Water Strategy, 2017). The hydrological products and services will, for the very first time, establish a routinely available authoritative source of global water intelligence information supporting war-fighters, planners, and decision makers at all echelons and services of the U.S. military, Federal government, and intelligence community. A summary of the interagency scientific collaboration in addressing some of the key gaps and needs identified during the 2017 workshop will be presented.

Land Information System↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

OSIRIS-REx Earth Return & Entry: Navigation Operations & Lessons Learned

The Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security–Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) spacecraft successfully returned to Earth on September24, 2024, safely delivering its Sample Return Capsule (SRC) to the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR). This paper describes the navigation operations that occurred between the departure from Bennu and the return of the SRC. An overview is given of the Flight Dynamics System (FDS) that includes tracking, orbit determination (OD), maneuver planning, and interfaces with entry, descent, and landing. Operational details on the SRC release criteria and conjunction assessment considerations are also provided. Lessons learned are presented that may help future sample return or interplanetary entry missions.

Kenneth M. Getzandanner↗
NASA NTRS2013

Ground Water and Climate Change

As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS2007

Vertical Drop Testing and Analysis of the Wasp Helicopter Skid Gear

This report describes an experimental program to assess the impact performance of a skid gear for use on the Wasp kit-built helicopter, which is marketed by HeloWerks, Inc. of Hampton, Virginia. In total, five vertical drop tests were performed. The test article consisted of a skid gear mounted beneath a steel plate. A seating platform was attached to the upper surface of the steel plate, and two 95th percentile Hybrid III male Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs) were seated on the platform and secured using a four-point restraint system. The test article also included ballast weights to ensure the correct position of the Center-of-Gravity (CG). Twenty-six channels of acceleration data were collected per test at 50,000 samples per second. The five drop tests were conducted on two different gear configurations. The details of these test programs are presented, as well as an occupant injury assessment. Finally, a finite element model of the skid gear test article was developed for execution in LS-DYNA, an explicit nonlinear transient dynamic code, for predicting the skid gear and occupant dynamic responses due to impact.

Jackson, Karen E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Spinoff 2010

Topics covered include: Burnishing Techniques Strengthen Hip Implants; Signal Processing Methods Monitor Cranial Pressure; Ultraviolet-Blocking Lenses Protect, Enhance Vision; Hyperspectral Systems Increase Imaging Capabilities; Programs Model the Future of Air Traffic Management; Tail Rotor Airfoils Stabilize Helicopters, Reduce Noise; Personal Aircraft Point to the Future of Transportation; Ducted Fan Designs Lead to Potential New Vehicles; Winglets Save Billions of Dollars in Fuel Costs; Sensor Systems Collect Critical Aerodynamics Data; Coatings Extend Life of Engines and Infrastructure; Radiometers Optimize Local Weather Prediction; Energy-Efficient Systems Eliminate Icing Danger for UAVs; Rocket-Powered Parachutes Rescue Entire Planes; Technologies Advance UAVs for Science, Military; Inflatable Antennas Support Emergency Communication; Smart Sensors Assess Structural Health; Hand-Held Devices Detect Explosives and Chemical Agents; Terahertz Tools Advance Imaging for Security, Industry; LED Systems Target Plant Growth; Aerogels Insulate Against Extreme Temperatures; Image Sensors Enhance Camera Technologies; Lightweight Material Patches Allow for Quick Repairs; Nanomaterials Transform Hairstyling Tools; Do-It-Yourself Additives Recharge Auto Air Conditioning; Systems Analyze Water Quality in Real Time; Compact Radiometers Expand Climate Knowledge; Energy Servers Deliver Clean, Affordable Power; Solutions Remediate Contaminated Groundwater; Bacteria Provide Cleanup of Oil Spills, Wastewater; Reflective Coatings Protect People and Animals; Innovative Techniques Simplify Vibration Analysis; Modeling Tools Predict Flow in Fluid Dynamics; Verification Tools Secure Online Shopping, Banking; Toolsets Maintain Health of Complex Systems; Framework Resources Multiply Computing Power; Tools Automate Spacecraft Testing, Operation; GPS Software Packages Deliver Positioning Solutions; Solid-State Recorders Enhance Scientific Data Collection; Computer Models Simulate Fine Particle Dispersion; Composite Sandwich Technologies Lighten Components; Cameras Reveal Elements in the Short Wave Infrared; Deformable Mirrors Correct Optical Distortions; Stitching Techniques Advance Optics Manufacturing; Compact, Robust Chips Integrate Optical Functions; Fuel Cell Stations Automate Processes, Catalyst Testing; Onboard Systems Record Unique Videos of Space Missions; Space Research Results Purify Semiconductor Materials; and Toolkits Control Motion of Complex Robotics.

Source record↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Satellite Conjunction Assessment, Risk Analysis and Collision Avoidance Best Practices: The History, Evolution and Opportunities

Since Explorer 1 was launched on January 31, 1958, the United States (U.S.) has reaped the benefits of space exploration. New markets and new technologies have spurred the economy and changed lives in many ways across the national security, civil, and commercial sectors. Space technologies and space-based capabilities now provide global communications, navigation and timing, weather forecasting, and more. Space exploration also presents challenges that impact not only the U.S. but also its allies and other partners. A significant increase in the volume and diversity of activity in space means that it is becoming increasingly congested. Emerging commercial ventures such as satellite servicing, in-space manufacturing, and tourism as well as new technologies enabling small satellites and large constellations of satellites present serious challenges for safely and responsibly using space in a stable, sustainable manner. To meet these challenges, the U.S. seeks to improve global awareness of activity in space by publicly sharing flight safety-related information and by coordinating its own on-orbit activity in a safer, more responsible manner. It seeks to bolster stability and reduce current and future operational on-orbit risks so that space is sustained for future generations. To this end, new and better Space Situational Awareness (SSA) capabilities are needed to keep pace with the increased congestion, and the U.S. seeks to create a dynamic environment that encourages and rewards commercial providers who improve these capabilities. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Spacecraft Conjunction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Best Practices Handbook reflects how NASA currently operates, which has evolved over time. Consideration is given to important topics such as spacecraft and constellation design; spacecraft “trackability;” pre-launch preparation and early launch activities; on-orbit collision avoidance; and automated trajectory guidance and maneuvering. This talk aims to present examples of responsible practices for spacecraft Owners/Operators (O/O) to consider for lowering collision risks and operating safely in space (from LEO and beyond) in a stable and sustainable manner. As technology and innovation continues to improve upon existing capabilities, what kind of new challenges are presented in the SSA community? Can space exploration and commercial ventures thrive while keeping paramount the safety and protection of the space environment? What are the challenges and opportunities that need to be addressed and considered for space situational awareness in Cis-Lunar Space? It may prove useful for entities offering, or intending to offer, SSA or Conjunction Assessment (CA) services to consider such examples of responsible practices to protect the space environment for future use by all.

Collision Avoidance↗
NASA NTRS2018

Vertical Drop Test and Simulation of a Fokker F-28 Fuselage Section

In March 2017, a vertical drop test of a 3.048-m(10-ft) section of a Fokker F-28 aircraft was conducted as a part of a joint NASA/FAA effort to investigate the performance of transport aircraft under realistic crash conditions. The section was configured with two rows of aircraft seats, in a triple-double configuration. A total of ten Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs) were secured in the seats using standard seat belt restraints. The section was also configured with luggage in the cargo hold. Two hat racks were added, each with mass loading of 37.2-kg per linear meter (25-lb/ft). The drop test was performed at the Landing and Impact Research facility located at NASA Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia. The planned impact velocity was 9.144-m/s (360-in/s) onto soil. A second objective was to assess the capabilities of finite element simulations to predict the test response. A finite element model was developed for execution in LS-DYNA, a commercial explicit nonlinear transient dynamic code. The model contained accurate representations of the airframe structure, the hat racks and hat rack masses, the floor and seat tracks, and the luggage in the cargo hold. Concentrated masses were used to represent the inertial properties of the seats, restraints, and ATD occupants. The model was executed to generate analytical predictions of airframe responses, which were compared with test data to validate the model.

Jackson, K. E.↗
NASA NTRS2021

LMI Automated Air Cargo Operations Market Research and Forecast

Air cargo companies and aircraft manufacturers are making significant investments to enable the movement of cargo via various levels of automated aircraft, such as aircraft with simplified operations requiring a pilot, remotely monitored or piloted aircraft, and fully autonomous aircraft. These investments will enable greater utilization of aircraft while unlocking new air markets traditionally served by ground transportation only. Many cargo companies and aerospace experts envision an operating environment where a single pilot can remotely pilot numerous aircraft for significant increases in aircraft utilization. The future operating environment is also expected to include air cargo companies flying smaller aircraft from airports and distribution centers outside of major U.S. cities directly to city centers, avoiding congested roads and increasing the velocity of cargo shipments, particularly those that are high-value, time-sensitive, and security sensitive (e.g., pharmaceuticals). These are just a few benefits and use cases cargo companies and aerospace experts see with the advancement of automated aircraft. To better understand industry’s direction, NASA asked the LMI team to research the forecasted market, timeline, risks, and opportunities for integrating unmanned air cargo vehicles into the National Airspace System (NAS) for the development and prioritization of the NASA Air Traffic Management Exploration’s research portfolio. To begin the market assessment, we gathered data via numerous interviews with key stakeholders and subject matter experts and literature reviews. We then incorporated the data into a custom-developed systems dynamics model and visualization dashboard. The systems dynamics model classifies the size of the market (e.g., overall fleet size of automated aircraft) for four distinct use cases over the next 20 years. The model projects the year in which various types of automated aircraft will enter the commercial cargo market based on our team’s collective research on when the aircraft will become viable due to manufacturing and certification timelines and the lifespan of current, traditional aircraft in service, to name a few factors. While this report defines our team’s estimated timeline of entry and growth, the model is dynamic—it enables NASA users to change variables based on future-year events. If the necessary technology does not mature in accordance with our assumptions, then NASA can change the entry of service point to a future year to evaluate the changes in market size in the out years. This flexibility will be key to deciding when and how NASA should invest in various areas.

air traffic management↗
NASA NTRS2016

Remote Sensing Global Surface Air Pressure Using Differential Absorption BArometric Radar (DiBAR)

Tropical storms and severe weathers are listed as one of core events that need improved observations and predictions in World Meteorological Organization and NASA Decadal Survey (DS) documents and have major impacts on public safety and national security. This effort tries to observe surface air pressure, especially over open seas, from space using a Differential-absorption BArometric Radar (DiBAR) operating at the 50-55 gigahertz O2 absorption band. Air pressure is among the most important variables that affect atmospheric dynamics, and currently can only be measured by limited in-situ observations over oceans. Analyses show that with the proposed space radar the errors in instantaneous (averaged) pressure estimates can be as low as approximately 4 millibars (approximately 1 millibar under all weather conditions). With these sea level pressure measurements, the forecasts of severe weathers such as hurricanes will be significantly improved. Since the development of the DiBAR concept about a decade ago, NASA Langley DiBAR research team has made substantial progress in advancing the concept. The feasibility assessment clearly shows the potential of sea surface barometry using existing radar technologies. The team has developed a DiBAR system design, fabricated a Prototype-DiBAR (P-DiBAR) for proof-of-concept, conducted lab, ground and airborne P-DiBAR tests. The flight test results are consistent with the instrumentation goals. Observational system simulation experiments for space DiBAR performance based on the existing DiBAR technology and capability show substantial improvements in tropical storm predictions, not only for the hurricane track and position but also for the hurricane intensity. DiBAR measurements will lead us to an unprecedented level of the prediction and knowledge on global extreme weather and climate conditions.

Lin, Bing↗
NASA NTRS2015

Monitoring Changes of Tropical Extreme Rainfall Events Using Differential Absorption Barometric Radar (DiBAR)

This work studies the potential of monitoring changes in tropical extreme rainfall events such as tropical storms from space using a Differential-absorption BArometric Radar (DiBAR) operating at 50-55 gigahertz O2 absorption band to remotely measure sea surface air pressure. Air pressure is among the most important variables that affect atmospheric dynamics, and currently can only be measured by limited in-situ observations over oceans. Analyses show that with the proposed radar the errors in instantaneous (averaged) pressure estimates can be as low as approximately 5 millibars (approximately 1 millibar) under all weather conditions. With these sea level pressure measurements, the forecasts, analyses and understanding of these extreme events in both short and long time scales can be improved. Severe weathers, especially hurricanes, are listed as one of core areas that need improved observations and predictions in WCRP (World Climate Research Program) and NASA Decadal Survey (DS) and have major impacts on public safety and national security through disaster mitigation. Since the development of the DiBAR concept about a decade ago, our team has made substantial progress in advancing the concept. Our feasibility assessment clearly shows the potential of sea surface barometry using existing radar technologies. We have developed a DiBAR system design, fabricated a Prototype-DiBAR (P-DiBAR) for proof-of-concept, conducted lab, ground and airborne P-DiBAR tests. The flight test results are consistent with our instrumentation goals. Observational system simulation experiments for space DiBAR performance show substantial improvements in tropical storm predictions, not only for the hurricane track and position but also for the hurricane intensity. DiBAR measurements will lead us to an unprecedented level of the prediction and knowledge on tropical extreme rainfall weather and climate conditions.

Lin, Bing↗
NASA NTRS2018

Finite Element Simulations of Two Vertical Drop Tests of F-28 Fuselage Sections

In March 2017, a vertical drop test of a forward fuselage section of a Fokker F-28 MK4000 aircraft was conducted as part of a joint NASA/FAA project to investigate the performance of transport aircraft under realistic crash conditions. In June 2017, a vertical drop test was conducted of a wing-box fuselage section of the same aircraft. Both sections were configured with two rows of aircraft seats, in a triple-double configuration. A total of ten Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs) were secured in seats using standard lap belt restraints. The forward fuselage section was also configured with luggage in the cargo hold. Both sections were outfitted with two hat racks, each with added ballast mass. The drop tests were performed at the Landing and Impact Research facility located at NASA Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia. The measured impact velocity for the forward fuselage section was 346.8-in/s onto soil. The wing-box section was dropped with a downward facing pitch angle onto a sloping soil surface in order to create an induced forward acceleration in the airframe. The vertical impact velocity of the wing-box section was 349.2-in/s. A second objective of this project was to assess the capabilities of finite element simulations to predict the test responses. Finite element models of both fuselage sections were developed for execution in LS-DYNA(Registered Trademark), a commercial explicit nonlinear transient dynamic code. The models contained accurate representations of the airframe structure, the hat racks and hat rack masses, the floor and seat tracks, the luggage in the cargo hold for the forward section, and the detailed under-floor structure in the wing-box section. Initially, concentrated masses were used to represent the inertial properties of the seats, restraints, and ATD occupants. However, later simulations were performed that included finite element representations of the seats, restraints, and ATD occupants. These models were developed to more accurately replicate the seat loading of the floor and to enable prediction of occupant impact responses. Models were executed to generate analytical predictions of airframe responses, which were compared with test data to validate the model. Comparisons of predicted and experimental structural deformation and failures were made. Finally, predicted and experimental soil deformation and crater depths were also compared for both drop test configurations.

Jackson, Karen E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Variability of African Farming Systems from Phenological Analysis of NDVI Time Series

Food security exists when people have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food at all times to meet their dietary needs. The natural resource base is one of the many factors affecting food security. Its variability and decline creates problems for local food production. In this study we characterize for sub-Saharan Africa vegetation phenology and assess variability and trends of phenological indicators based on NDVI time series from 1982 to 2006. We focus on cumulated NDVI over the season (cumNDVI) which is a proxy for net primary productivity. Results are aggregated at the level of major farming systems, while determining also spatial variability within farming systems. High temporal variability of cumNDVI occurs in semiarid and subhumid regions. The results show a large area of positive cumNDVI trends between Senegal and South Sudan. These correspond to positive CRU rainfall trends found and relate to recovery after the 1980's droughts. We find significant negative cumNDVI trends near the south-coast of West Africa (Guinea coast) and in Tanzania. For each farming system, causes of change and variability are discussed based on available literature (Appendix A). Although food security comprises more than the local natural resource base, our results can perform an input for food security analysis by identifying zones of high variability or downward trends. Farming systems are found to be a useful level of analysis. Diversity and trends found within farming system boundaries underline that farming systems are dynamic.

Vrieling, Anton↗
NASA NTRS2016

Spatial and Temporal Uncertainty of Crop Yield Aggregations

The aggregation of simulated gridded crop yields to national or regional scale requires information on temporal and spatial patterns of crop-specific harvested areas. This analysis estimates the uncertainty of simulated gridded yield time series related to the aggregation with four different harvested area data sets. We compare aggregated yield time series from the Global Gridded Crop Model Inter-comparison project for four crop types from 14 models at global, national, and regional scale to determine aggregation-driven differences in mean yields and temporal patterns as measures of uncertainty. The quantity and spatial patterns of harvested areas differ for individual crops among the four datasets applied for the aggregation. Also simulated spatial yield patterns differ among the 14 models. These differences in harvested areas and simulated yield patterns lead to differences in aggregated productivity estimates, both in mean yield and in the temporal dynamics. Among the four investigated crops, wheat yield (17% relative difference) is most affected by the uncertainty introduced by the aggregation at the global scale. The correlation of temporal patterns of global aggregated yield time series can be as low as for soybean (r = 0.28).For the majority of countries, mean relative differences of nationally aggregated yields account for10% or less. The spatial and temporal difference can be substantial higher for individual countries. Of the top-10 crop producers, aggregated national multi-annual mean relative difference of yields can be up to 67% (maize, South Africa), 43% (wheat, Pakistan), 51% (rice, Japan), and 427% (soybean, Bolivia).Correlations of differently aggregated yield time series can be as low as r = 0.56 (maize, India), r = 0.05∗Corresponding (wheat, Russia), r = 0.13 (rice, Vietnam), and r = −0.01 (soybean, Uruguay). The aggregation to sub-national scale in comparison to country scale shows that spatial uncertainties can cancel out in countries with large harvested areas per crop type. We conclude that the aggregation uncertainty can be substantial for crop productivity and production estimations in the context of food security, impact assessment, and model evaluation exercises.

Aggregation uncertainty↗
NASA NTRS2012

Towards Reliable Evaluation of Anomaly-Based Intrusion Detection Performance

This report describes the results of research into the effects of environment-induced noise on the evaluation process for anomaly detectors in the cyber security domain. This research was conducted during a 10-week summer internship program from the 19th of August, 2012 to the 23rd of August, 2012 at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. The research performed lies within the larger context of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) Smart Grid cyber security project, a Department of Energy (DoE) funded effort involving the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology and the University of Southern California/ Information Sciences Institute. The results of the present effort constitute an important contribution towards building more rigorous evaluation paradigms for anomaly-based intrusion detectors in complex cyber physical systems such as the Smart Grid. Anomaly detection is a key strategy for cyber intrusion detection and operates by identifying deviations from profiles of nominal behavior and are thus conceptually appealing for detecting "novel" attacks. Evaluating the performance of such a detector requires assessing: (a) how well it captures the model of nominal behavior, and (b) how well it detects attacks (deviations from normality). Current evaluation methods produce results that give insufficient insight into the operation of a detector, inevitably resulting in a significantly poor characterization of a detectors performance. In this work, we first describe a preliminary taxonomy of key evaluation constructs that are necessary for establishing rigor in the evaluation regime of an anomaly detector. We then focus on clarifying the impact of the operational environment on the manifestation of attacks in monitored data. We show how dynamic and evolving environments can introduce high variability into the data stream perturbing detector performance. Prior research has focused on understanding the impact of this variability in training data for anomaly detectors, but has ignored variability in the attack signal that will necessarily affect the evaluation results for such detectors. We posit that current evaluation strategies implicitly assume that attacks always manifest in a stable manner; we show that this assumption is wrong. We describe a simple experiment to demonstrate the effects of environmental noise on the manifestation of attacks in data and introduce the notion of attack manifestation stability. Finally, we argue that conclusions about detector performance will be unreliable and incomplete if the stability of attack manifestation is not accounted for in the evaluation strategy.

cyber defense↗