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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Hybrid approach for estimating dynamic states of synchronous generators

Accurate and robust estimation of dynamic states is essential for monitoring and controlling a power grid. To achieve higher accuracy and robustness, this paper proposes a hybrid estimation approach to estimate the dynamic states of synchronous generators using multiple models, classified into a set of local models and a wide-area model. The proposed estimation approach, first, estimates dynamic states using the extended Kalman filter (EKF) based on a local model and a wide-area model. Then, at each time step, probability indexes, which quantify the likelihood of both local and wide-area models, are determined using hypothesis testing based on measurements innovations. Finally, using the weighted fix approach, the states estimated from the local and wide-area models are combined based on their probability indexes. Simulation studies using the two-area four-machine system shows that the proposed approach can improve estimation accuracy and increase robustness against model errors.

Akhlaghi, Shahrokh↗
DOE OSTI2019

Power System Dynamic State Estimation: Motivations, Definitions, Methodologies and Future Work

This paper summarizes the technical activities of the Task Force on Power System Dynamic State and Parameter Estimation. This Task Force was established by the IEEE Working Group on State Estimation Algorithms to investigate the added benefits of dynamic state and parameter estimation for the enhancement of the reliability, security, and resilience of electric power systems. The motivations and engineering values of dynamic state estimation (DSE) are discussed in detail. Then, a set of potential applications that will rely on DSE is presented and discussed. Furthermore, a unified framework is proposed to clarify the important concepts related to DSE, forecasting-aided state estimation, tracking state estimation and static state estimation. An overview of the current progress in DSE and dynamic parameter estimation is provided. The paper also provides future research needs and directions for the power engineering community.

task force, dynamic state estimation, Parameter Es↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Multi-Step Adaptive Interpolation Approach to Mitigating the Impact of Nonlinearity on Dynamic State Estimation

Accurate estimation of dynamic states (such as synchronous machine rotor angle and speed) is critical for monitoring and controlling transient stability. Extended Kalman filter (EKF)--based approaches have been developed for estimating dynamic states. In order to improve the EKF's performance in estimating dynamic states of a synchronous machine, this paper proposes a multi-step adaptive interpolation (MSAI) approach to achieve balance between estimation accuracy and computational time. This approach consists of three major steps. First, two indexes are calculated to quantify the nonlinearity of the state transition function and measurement function, respectively. Second, based on the nonlinearity indexes, the interpolation factor is determined using a finite state machine model. And finally, to mitigate the negative impact of nonlinearity on the estimation accuracy, pseudo-measurements are added between consecutive measurements through linear interpolation. A simple example is used to validate the proposed nonlinear indexes. The two-area four-machine system and 16-machine 68-bus system are used to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed MSAI approach. It is shown through the Monte-Carlo method that the estimation accuracy can be improved through interpolation. In addition, a good trade-off between estimation accuracy and computational time can be achieved effectively through the proposed MSAI approach.

Dynamic State Estimation, extended Kalman filter (↗
DOE OSTI2021

Roles of Dynamic State Estimation in Power System Modeling, Monitoring and Operation

—Power system dynamic state estimation (DSE) remains an active research area. This is driven by the absence of accurate models, the increasing availability of fast-sampled, time synchronized measurements, and the advances in the capability, scalability, and affordability of computing and communications. This paper discusses the advantages of DSE as compared to static state estimation, and the implementation differences between the two, including the measurement configuration, modeling framework and support software features. The important roles of DSE are discussed from modeling, monitoring and operation aspects for today’s synchronous machine dominated systems and the future power electronics-interfaced generation systems. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the benefits of DSE on enhancing the operational robustness and resilience of 21st century power system through time critical applications. Future research directions are identified and discussed, paving the way for developing the next generation of energy management systems.

Zhao, Junbo↗
DOE OSTI2017

Ensemble Kalman Filter for Dynamic State Estimation of Power Grids Stochastically Driven by Time-correlated Mechanical Input Power

State and parameter estimation of power transmission networks is important for monitoring power grid operating conditions and analyzing transient stability. Wind power generation depends on fluctuating input power levels, which are correlated in time and contribute to uncertainty in turbine dynamical models. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a standard state estimation technique, uses a deterministic forecast and does not explicitly model time-correlated noise in parameters such as mechanical input power. However, this uncertainty affects the probability of fault-induced transient instability and increased prediction bias. Here a novel approach is to model input power noise with time-correlated stochastic fluctuations, and integrate them with the network dynamics during the forecast. While the EnKF has been used to calibrate constant parameters in turbine dynamical models, the calibration of a statistical model for a time-correlated parameter has not been investigated. In this study, twin experiments on a standard transmission network test case are used to validate our time-correlated noise model framework for state estimation of unsteady operating conditions and transient stability analysis, and a methodology is proposed for the inference of the mechanical input power time-correlation length parameter using time-series data from PMUs monitoring power dynamics at generator buses.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Multi-Model Adaptive Kalman Filtering Approach to Power System Dynamic State Estimation

Accurate information about dynamic states (such as rotor angle and speed of a synchronous machine) is important for monitoring and controlling power system rotor-angle stability. In this paper, a multi-model adaptive Kalman filtering (MMAKF) approach is proposed to accurately and robustly estimate power system dynamic states. This approach consists of three major steps: (i) multiple Kalman filtering approaches, i.e., the extended Kalman filter (EKF), unscented Kalman filter (UKF), ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), and cubature Kalman filter (CKF), are run concurrently in parallel to estimate the dynamic states of a synchronous generator using phasor measurement unit data; (ii) probability indexes, which quantify the likelihood of each estimation model, are determined at each time step using hypothesis testing based on the measurement innovation; (iii) the a posteriori estimate of states is obtained using the best-fix approach. The two-area four-machine system is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed MMAKF approach. It is shown through the Monte-Carlo method that the estimation accuracy and robustness of the proposed approach is better than those from any individual filtering algorithm.

multi-model adaptive Kalman Filtering, Power Syste↗
DOE OSTI2016

Power system observability and dynamic state estimation for stability monitoring using synchrophasor measurements

Growing penetration of intermittent resources such as renewable generations increases the risk of instability in a power grid. This paper introduces the concept of observability and its computational algorithms for a power grid monitored by the wide-area measurement system (WAMS) based on synchrophasors, e.g. phasor measurement units (PMUs). The goal is to estimate real-time states of generators, especially for potentially unstable trajectories, the information that is critical for the detection of rotor angle instability of the grid. The paper studies the number and siting of synchrophasors in a power grid so that the state of the system can be accurately estimated in the presence of instability. An unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is adopted as a tool to estimate the dynamic states that are not directly measured by synchrophasors. The theory and its computational algorithms are illustrated in detail by using a 9-bus 3-generator power system model and then tested on a 140-bus 48-generator Northeast Power Coordinating Council power grid model. Case studies on those two systems demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach using a limited number of synchrophasors for dynamic state estimation for stability assessment and its robustness against moderate inaccuracies in model parameters.

Observability, Dynamic state estimation, Synchroph↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of Detectability Analysis for Power System Dynamic State Estimation

To guide the measurement placement and selection for dynamic state estimation in power systems, it is important to determine the existence of an observer that can estimate the dynamic states. Past studies have been focused on observability analysis, which determines whether the initial states can be uniquely determined. In this paper, detectability analysis is proposed to determine whether the current states can be estimated as time involving. Through the proposed detectability analysis, the states of an unobservable system can be categorized into the detectable states and undetectable states. It is shown that if the eigenvalues corresponding to the unobservable states are stable, the states are detectable and their estimates will converge to the true ones asymptotically. The study can be used to guide measurement placement and selection.

Detectability, dynamic state estimation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic State Estimation for Radial Microgrid Protection

Dynamic state estimation (DSE) is a generalization of differential protection that offers a reduced likelihood of misoperation, particularly in the case of devices with nonlinear characteristics such as transformers which are being energized. It is also useful in cases where distance protection performs poorly, such as transmission lines with series compensation or mutually coupled transmission lines. DSE has been previously applied to microgrid branch protection. This study investigates the use of DSE for protection of radial portions of a microgrid or distribution system. This can be a challenge in microgrids or distribution systems with distributed generation on account of lack of fault current from inverter-interfaced generation, varying fault current between grid- connected and islanded modes, the potential for normally-meshed operation and unbalanced operation due to single-phase loads. Admittance relaying has been investigated as a solution for protection of microgrids, though it has been observed to have issues with grounded-wye connected loads, and additional relaying is necessary to prevent misoperation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Real-Time Modal Analysis of Electric Power Grids - The Need for Dynamic State Estimation

We articulate the reason why dynamic state estimation is needed to push the boundaries of the modal analysis of electric power grids in real-time operation. Then, we demonstrate how to unravel linear and nonlinear modes by using the extended dynamic mode decomposition along with estimates of the synchronous generators’ rotor angles and rotor speed deviations from nominal speed. The estimated modes are associated with electromechanical oscillations that take place continuously in electric power grids because of imbalances between power generation and demand. The numerical simulations are performed on a synthetic, albeit realistic, 2,000-bus network that was designed to resemble the electric power grid of Texas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Real-Time Modal Analysis of Electric Power Grids - The Need for Dynamic State Estimation: Preprint

We articulate the reason why dynamic state estimation is needed to push the boundaries of the modal analysis of electric power grids in real-time operation. Then, we demonstrate how to unravel linear and nonlinear modes by using the extended dynamic mode decomposition along with estimates of the synchronous generators' rotor angles and rotor speed deviations from nominal speed. The estimated modes are associated with electromechanical oscillations that take place continuously in electric power grids because of imbalances between power generation and demand. The numerical simulations are performed on a synthetic, albeit realistic, 2,000-bus network that was designed to resemble the electric power grid of Texas.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Estimating Power System Dynamic States Using Extended Kalman Filter

Abstract—The state estimation tools which are currently deployed in power system control rooms are based on a steady state assumption. As a result, the suite of operational tools that rely on state estimation results as inputs do not have dynamic information available and their accuracy is compromised. This paper investigates the application of Extended Kalman Filtering techniques for estimating dynamic states in the state estimation process. The new formulated “dynamic state estimation” includes true system dynamics reflected in differential equations, not like previously proposed “dynamic state estimation” which only considers the time-variant snapshots based on steady state modeling. This new dynamic state estimation using Extended Kalman Filter has been successfully tested on a multi-machine system. Sensitivity studies with respect to noise levels, sampling rates, model errors, and parameter errors are presented as well to illustrate the robust performance of the developed dynamic state estimation process.

Huang, Zhenyu↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modified Eigen-Decomposition-based Interval Analysis (MEDIA) for Power System Dynamic State Estimation

The Bayesian approach has been used for the dynamic state estimation (DSE) of a power system. However, due to the complexity of noise resources, it is difficult to quantify measurement and process noise using probability density functions (PDFs). To overcome the difficulty, the authors of this paper propose a modified eigen-decomposition-based interval analysis (MEDIA) method, which employs bounds instead of PDFs to quantify the noise, and uses the eigen decomposition method to reduce the negative impact of the overestimation problem. Using the simulation data generated from IEEE 16-machine and IEEE 10-machine systems, it is shown that the proposed MEDIA method can estimate the hard boundaries of dynamic states in real time. Furthermore, comparison with the forward-backward propagation method and the extended set-membership filter also shows that the proposed MEDIA method performs better by providing narrower boundaries in the DSE.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

A robust dynamic state estimation approach against model errors caused by load changes

Dynamic state estimation (DSE) plays an important role in power system security monitoring and online control. In practice, there are two approaches to implementing DSE. The first approach is distributed DSE, which is based on the assumption that the terminal bus of each generator can be measured by PMUs (phasor measurement units). The assumption cannot be satisfied currently, however, because PMUs usually are installed at important high-voltage buses such as 500-kV buses installed in portions of the grid overseen by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. Another issue of this approach is that performance of DSE is vulnerable to bad measurement data. The reason for this vulnerability is that DSE is performed separately through measurements at each terminal bus, and measurements at terminal buses are the only measurement upon which DSE can rely. Therefore, important redundant measurements are not included in this approach. The second approach is centralized DSE. This approach does not have the requirement for PMU location, and redundant measurements can be considered fully. However, load changes and grid topology changes impact centralized DSE. In this paper, we propose a new approach for handling the impact of load changes on DSE. We have developed a new algorithm that includes two sequential steps. In the first step, errors caused by load changes are detected by analyzing the difference between prediction results and measured results. In the second step, once model error is detected, a model optimization procedure is run to correct the error so the state estimation error can be mitigated. Simulation results from the IEEE 68 bus system show that the proposed approach can effectively handle model errors caused by load changes.

robust dynamic state estimation, load change, powe↗
NASA NTRS2001

A model of cerebellar computations for dynamical state estimation

The cerebellum is a neural structure that is essential for agility in vertebrate movements. Its contribution to motor control appears to be due to a fundamental role in dynamical state estimation, which also underlies its role in various non-motor tasks. Single spikes in vestibular sensory neurons carry information about head state. We show how computations for optimal dynamical state estimation may be accomplished when signals are encoded in spikes. This provides a novel way to design dynamical state estimators, and a novel way to interpret the structure and function of the cerebellum.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗
DOE OSTI2018

Dynamic State Estimation for Multi-Machine Power System by Unscented Kalman Filter With Enhanced Numerical Stability

In this paper, in order to enhance the numerical stability of the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) used for power system dynamic state estimation, a new UKF with guaranteed positive semidifinite estimation error covariance (UKFGPS) is proposed and compared with five existing approaches, including UKFschol, UKF-kappa, UKFmodified, UKF-Delta Q, and the squareroot UKF (SRUKF). These methods and the extended Kalman filter (EKF) are tested by performing dynamic state estimation on WSCC 3-machine 9-bus system and NPCC 48-machine 140-bus system. For WSCC system, all methods obtain good estimates. However, for NPCC system, both EKF and the classic UKF fail. It is found that UKFschol, UKF-kappa, and UKF-Delta Q do not work well in some estimations while UKFGPS works well in most cases. UKFmodified and SRUKF can always work well, indicating their better scalability mainly due to the enhanced numerical stability.

dynamic state estimation↗
DOE OSTI2014

Capturing Dynamics in the Power Grid: Formulation of Dynamic State Estimation through Data Assimilation

With the increasing complexity resulting from uncertainties and stochastic variations introduced by intermittent renewable energy sources, responsive loads, mobile consumption of plug-in vehicles, and new market designs, more and more dynamic behaviors are observed in everyday power system operation. To operate a power system efficiently and reliably, it is critical to adopt a dynamic paradigm so that effective control actions can be taken in time. The dynamic paradigm needs to include three fundamental components: dynamic state estimation; look-ahead dynamic simulation; and dynamic contingency analysis (Figure 1). These three components answer three basic questions: where the system is; where the system is going; and how secure the system is against accidents. The dynamic state estimation provides a solid cornerstone to support the other 2 components and is the focus of this study.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗