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Results for “dynamic state prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1996

Local and Global Bifurcations of Flow Fields During Physical Vapor Transport: Application to a Microgravity Experiment

The local bifurcation of the flow field, during physical vapor transport for a parametric range of experimental interest, shows that its dynamical state ranges from steady to aperiodic. Comparison of computationally predicted velocity profiles with laser doppler velocimetry measurements shows reasonable agreement in both magnitude and planform. Correlation of experimentally measured crystal quality with the predicted dynamical state of the flow field shows a degradation of quality with an increase in Rayleigh number. The global bifurcation of the flow field corresponding to low crystal quality indicates the presence of a traveling wave for Ra = 1.09 x 10(exp 5). For this Rayleigh number threshold a chaotic transport state occurs. However, a microgravity environment for this case effectively stabilizes the flow to diffusive-advective and provides the setting to grow crystals with optimal quality.

Duval, W. M. B.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Dynamic Filtering Improves Attentional State Prediction with fNIRS

Brain activity can predict a person's level of engagement in an attentional task. However, estimates of brain activity are often confounded by measurement artifacts and systemic physiological noise. The optimal method for filtering this noise - thereby increasing such state prediction accuracy - remains unclear. To investigate this, we asked study participants to perform an attentional task while we monitored their brain activity with functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). We observed higher state prediction accuracy when noise in the fNIRS hemoglobin [Hb] signals was filtered with a non-stationary (adaptive) model as compared to static regression (84% +/- 6% versus 72% +/- 15%).

Harrivel, Angela R.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems

This study assesses the skill of boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) predictions with state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs): GloSea4, CFSv2, GEOS-5, CanCM3, CanCM4, and CM2.1. Long-term reforecasts with the EPSs are used to evaluate how well they represent the AO and to assess the skill of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of the AO. The reforecasts reproduce the observed changes in the large-scale patterns of the Northern Hemispheric surface temperature, upper level wind, and precipitation associated with the different phases of the AO. The results demonstrate that most EPSs improve upon persistence skill scores for lead times up to 2 months in boreal winter, suggesting some potential for skillful prediction of the AO and its associated climate anomalies at seasonal time scales. It is also found that the skill of AO forecasts during the recent period (1997-2010) is higher than that of the earlier period (1983-1996).

Arctic Oscillation↗
NASA NTRS2011

MoSST DAS: The First Working Geomagnetic Data Assimilation System

The Earth possesses an internal magnetic field (geomagnetic field) generated by convection in the outer core (geodynamo). Previous efforts have been focused along two distinct paths: (1) numerical geodynamo modeling to understand the origin of the geomagnetic field, and the mechanisms of geomagnetic secular variations (SV); and (2) geomagnetic field modeling to map the spatial/temporal variations of the field from geomagnetic data, and to derive core properties, e.g. inversion of core flow near the core-mantle boundary (CMB). Geomagnetic data assimilation is a new approach emerged over the past 5 years: surface observations are assimilated with geodynamo models for better understanding of the core dynamical state, and accurately prediction of SV. In collaboration with several geomagnetic research groups, we have developed the first working geomagnetic data assimilation system, Modular, Scalable, Self-consistent, and Three-dimensional (MoSST) DAS, that includes the MoSST numerical dynamo model; 7000 years of geomagnetic field maps from several field models utilizing satellite and ground observatory data, historical magnetic records and archeo/paleo magnetic data; and an ensemble based optimal interpolation (01) assimilation algorithm. With this system, we have demonstrated clearly that the assimilated core dynamical state is substantially different from those of pure geodynamo simulations. Ensemble assimilation runs also show the convergence of the assimilated solutions inside the core, suggesting that the simulation state is pulled closer to the truth via data assimilation. The forecasts from this system are also very accurate: the 5-year forecast of the geomagnetic field agrees very well with the observations; and the 5-year secular variation forecast is more accurate than the IGRF SV forecast models in the past. Using geomagnetic records up to 2009, we have made an SV forecast for the period from 2010-2015, and is a candidate SV model for IGRF-11.

Kuang, Weijia↗
NASA NTRS2001

Ensemble Canonical Correlation Prediction of Seasonal Precipitation Over the United States: Raising the Bar for Dynamical Model Forecasts

This paper presents preliminary results of an ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) prediction scheme developed at the Climate and Radiation Branch, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center for determining the potential predictability of regional precipitation, and for climate downscaling studies. The scheme is tested on seasonal hindcasts of anomalous precipitation over the continental United States using global sea surface temperature (SST) for 1951-2000. To maximize the forecast skill derived from SST, the world ocean is divided into non-overlapping sectors. The canonical SST modes for each sector are used as the predictor for the ensemble hindcasts. Results show that the ECC yields a substantial (10-25%) increase in prediction skills for all the regions of the US in every season compared to traditional CCA prediction schemes. For the boreal winter, the tropical Pacific contributes the largest potential predictability to precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern regions, while the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible to the enhanced forecast skills in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Plains and Ohio Valley. Most importantly, the ECC increases skill for summertime precipitation prediction and substantially reduces the spring predictability barrier over all the regions of the US continent. Besides SST, the ECC is designed with the flexibility to include any number of predictor fields, such as soil moisture, snow cover and additional local observations. The enhanced ECC forecast skill provides a new benchmark for evaluating dynamical model forecasts.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Current collection in a magnetoplasma

The authors present a survey of a very incomplete subject, current collection in a magnetoplasma. The best-developed and simplest theories for current collection are steady-state collisionless theories, and these must be understood before departures from them can be analyzed usefully. Thus, the authors begin with a review of them. The authors include some recent numerical results which indicate that steady-state collisionless Laplace-limit currents remain substantially below the Parker-Murphy (1967) canonical upper bound out to very large electrode potentials, and approach it as a limit only very slowly if at all. Attempts to correct this theory for space-charge effects lead to potential disturbances which extend to infinite distance along the electrode's magnetic shadow, unless collisional effects are also taken into account. However, even a small amount of relative plasma drift motion, such as that involved in a typical rocket experiment, can change this conclusion fundamentally. It is widely believed that time-averaged current collection may be increased by effects of plasma turbulence, and the authors review the available evidence for and against this contention. Steady-state collisionless particle dynamics predicts the existence of a toroidal region of trapped orbits which surrounds the electrode. Light emissions from this region have been photographed, indicating that collisional ionization may also occur there, and this, and/or scattering by collisions or possibly turbulent fluctuations in this region, may also increase current collection by the electrode. The authors also discuss effects on particle motions near the electrode, associated with breakdown of magnetic insulation in the region of large electric fields near it.

Laframboise, Jim G.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Wave Journal Bearing. Part 2: Experimental Pressure Measurements and Fractional Frequency Whirl Threshold for Wave and Plain Journal Bearings

A new hydrodynamic bearing concept, the wave journal bearing, is being developed because it has better stability characteristics than plain journal bearings while maintaining similar load capacity. An analysis code to predict the steady state and dynamic performance of the wave journal bearing is also part of the development. To verify numerical predictions and contrast the wave journal bearing's stability characteristics to a plain journal bearing, tests were conducted at NASA Lewis Research Center using an air bearing test rig. Bearing film pressures were measured at 16 ports located around the bearing circumference at the middle of the bearing length. The pressure measurements for both a plain journal bearing and a wave journal bearing compared favorably with numerical predictions. Both bearings were tested with no radial load to determine the speed threshold for self-excited fractional frequency whirl. The plain journal bearing started to whirl immediately upon shaft start-up. The wave journal did not incur self-excited whirl until 800 to 900 rpm as predicted by the analysis. Furthermore, the wave bearing's geometry limited the whirl orbit to less than the bearing's clearance. In contrast, the plain journal bearing did not limit the whirl orbit, causing it to rub.

Walker, James F.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Low-dimensional modelling and prediction in fluid dynamics

Research into the development of a simplified, low-dimensional, state-variable model for a fluid dynamics system is discussed. The model would be capable of predicting the state of the system in as nearly real time as possible and would be suitable for implementation in a control loop. It is noted that state-variable modeling has an advantage for real-time health monitoring and control application over the Navier-Stokes equations since the latter require an enormous amount of real time. In this study, a dynamic procedure is developed for modeling and prediction using the CFD data generated for this model centerbody-combustor configuration. Some experiences with the NASA data available for the SSME are also reported. Application of this procedure to pressure and velocity measurements in an actual wind-tunnel experiment is described, and the applicability of the approach to health monitoring is considered.

Ghia, U.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Review and evaluation of recent developments in melic inlet dynamic flow distortion prediction and computer program documentation and user's manual estimating maximum instantaneous inlet flow distortion from steady-state total pressure measurements with full, limited, or no dynamic data

A review of the Melick method of inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction by statistical means is provided. These developments include the general Melick approach with full dynamic measurements, a limited dynamic measurement approach, and a turbulence modelling approach which requires no dynamic rms pressure fluctuation measurements. These modifications are evaluated by comparing predicted and measured peak instantaneous distortion levels from provisional inlet data sets. A nonlinear mean-line following vortex model is proposed and evaluated as a potential criterion for improving the peak instantaneous distortion map generated from the conventional linear vortex of the Melick method. The model is simplified to a series of linear vortex segments which lay along the mean line. Maps generated with this new approach are compared with conventionally generated maps, as well as measured peak instantaneous maps. Inlet data sets include subsonic, transonic, and supersonic inlets under various flight conditions.

Schweikhard, W. G.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Utilization of satellite data and regional scale numerical models in short range weather forecasting

Overwhelming evidence was developed in a number of studies of satellite data impact on numerical weather prediction that it is unrealistic to expect satellite temperature soundings to improve detailed regional numerical weather prediction. It is likely that satellite data over the United States would substantially impact mesoscale dynamical predictions if the effort were made to develop a composite moisture analysis system. The horizontal variability of moisture, most clearly depicited in images from satellite water vapor channels, would not be determined from conventional rawinsondes even if that network were increased by a doubling of both the number of sites and the time frequency.

Kreitzberg, C. W.↗
NASA NTRS1995

High Temperature Slow Crack Growth of Si3N4 Specimens Subjected to Uniaxial and Biaxial Dynamic Fatigue Loading Conditions

The slow crack growth of a hot-pressed silicon nitride was determined at 1300 C in air using dynamic fatigue testing under both uniaxial and biaxial stress states. Good agreement in fatigue parameter exists between the data obtained from uniaxial and biaxial loading conditions. A reasonable prediction of dynamic fatigue from one stress state to another was made using the recently developed CARES/LIFE computer code.

Choi, Sung R.↗
NASA NTRS1995

A numerical model for dynamic wave rotor analysis

A numerical model has been developed which can predict the dynamic (and steady state) performance of a wave rotor, given the geometry and time dependent boundary conditions. The one-dimensional, perfect gas, CFD based code tracks the gasdynamics in each of the wave rotor passages as they rotate past the various ducts. The model can operate both on and off-design, allowing dynamic behavior to be studied throughout the operating range of the wave rotor. The model accounts for several major loss mechanisms including finite passage opening time, fluid friction, heat transfer to and from the passage walls, and leakage to and from the passage ends. In addition, it can calculate the amount of work transferred to and from the fluid when the flow in the ducts is not aligned with the passages such as occurs in off-design operation. Since it is one-dimensional, the model runs reasonably fast on a typical workstation. This paper will describe the model and present the results of some transient calculations for a conceptual four port wave rotor designed as a topping cycle for a small gas turbine engine.

Paxson, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Recent NASA Research on Aerodynamic Modeling of Post-Stall and Spin Dynamics of Large Transport Airplanes

A simulation study was conducted to investigate aerodynamic modeling methods for prediction of post-stall flight dynamics of large transport airplanes. The research approach involved integrating dynamic wind tunnel data from rotary balance and forced oscillation testing with static wind tunnel data to predict aerodynamic forces and moments during highly dynamic departure and spin motions. Several state-of-the-art aerodynamic modeling methods were evaluated and predicted flight dynamics using these various approaches were compared. Results showed the different modeling methods had varying effects on the predicted flight dynamics and the differences were most significant during uncoordinated maneuvers. Preliminary wind tunnel validation data indicated the potential of the various methods for predicting steady spin motions.

Murch, Austin M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Nonlinear infrared generation in alkali metal vapors: Steady state susceptibilities and dynamic behavior. Effective relaxation rates and preliminary Raman gain predictions for the Cs system

Effective relaxation rates for atomic cesium pumped by doubled Alexandrite radiation are presented. Laser radiation levels are 8S 1/2 and 9S 1/2; resonance levels 3 = 8P 1/2 and 8P 1/2, respectively. In addition, Raman gain is represented in two graphs which plot chi per atom (10 to the -13 power) at Raman peak versus the infrared wave number per centimeter and the corresponding doubled Alexandrite wave number. One graph covers resonance level 8P, the other 9P; in both cases cesium is pumped with a peak pulse height of 0.5 MW in a 200 micron diameter spot size.

Lawandy, N. M.↗