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At least 19 records

Potential utilization of the NASA/George C. Marshall Space Flight Center in earthquake engineering research

Earthquake engineering research capabilities of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) facilities at George C. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), Alabama, were evaluated. The results indicate that the NASA/MSFC facilities and supporting capabilities offer unique opportunities for conducting earthquake engineering research. Specific features that are particularly attractive for large scale static and dynamic testing of natural and man-made structures include the following: large physical dimensions of buildings and test bays; high loading capacity; wide range and large number of test equipment and instrumentation devices; multichannel data acquisition and processing systems; technical expertise for conducting large-scale static and dynamic testing; sophisticated techniques for systems dynamics analysis, simulation, and control; and capability for managing large-size and technologically complex programs. Potential uses of the facilities for near and long term test programs to supplement current earthquake research activities are suggested.

Scholl, R. E.↗

Performance-based earthquake early warning for tall buildings

The ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system aims to issue an advance warning to residents on the West Coast of the United States seconds before the ground shaking arrives, if the expected ground shaking exceeds a certain threshold. However, residents in tall buildings may experience much greater motion due to the dynamic response of the buildings. Therefore, there is an ongoing effort to extend ShakeAlert to include the contribution of building response to provide a more accurate estimation of the expected shaking intensity for tall buildings. Currently, the supposedly ideal solution of analyzing detailed finite element models of buildings under predicted ground-motion time histories is not theoretically or practically feasible. The authors have recently investigated existing simple methods to estimate peak floor acceleration (PFA) and determined these simple formulas are not practically suitable. Instead, this article explores another approach by extending the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) to EEW, considering that every component involved in building response prediction is uncertain in the EEW scenario. Additionally, while this idea is not new and has been proposed by other researchers, it has two shortcomings: (1) the simple beam model used for response prediction is prone to modeling uncertainty, which has not been quantified, and (2) the ground motions used for probabilistic demand models are not suitable for EEW applications. In this article, we address these two issues by incorporating modeling errors into the parameters of the beam model and using a new set of ground motions, respectively. We demonstrate how this approach could practically work using data from a 52-story building in downtown Los Angeles. Using the criteria and thresholds employed by previous researchers, we show that if peak ground acceleration (PGA) is accurately estimated, this approach can predict the expected level of human comfort in tall buildings.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Intensity measure adequacy assessment for nonlinear site response using Information Theory

Nonlinear site response modeling is a crucial aspect of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis. Site amplification models routinely rely on a rock intensity measure to characterize the strength of the bedrock motion. However, the adequacy of such intensity measures towards predicting amplifications across the oscillator period range has not been investigated in the literature. This paper analyzes the adequacy of rock intensity measures using state of the art criterion established in Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering and techniques from Information Theory. The efficiency and the sufficiency of several rock intensity measure are assessed. It was found that spectral accelerations at low periods usually are adequate for predicting amplifications across the period range. This supports the current practice of using Peak Ground Acceleration in Ground Motion Models. However, for extremely soft sites, which demonstrate nonlinear effects well into the period range, it is better practice to ensure that amplification and spectral acceleration share the same oscillator period. Lastly, for predicting the peak shear strain (an important parameter that controls nonlinearity of site response), Peak Ground Velocity is generally adequate, and this conclusion is in line with the definition of proxy shear strain.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Connecting Risk and Resilience for a Power System Using the Portland Hills Fault Case Study

Active seismic faults in the Pacific Northwest area have encouraged electric utilities in the region to deeply contemplate and proactively intervene to support grid resilience. To further this effort this research introduces Monte Carlo (MC)-based power system modeling as a means to inform the Performance Based Earthquake Engineering method and simulates 100,000 sample earthquakes of a 6.8 magnitude (M6.8) Portland Hills Fault (PHF) scenario in the Portland General Electric (PGE) service territory as a proof of concept. This paper also proposes the resilience metric Seismic Load Recovery Factor (SLRF) to quantify the recovery of a downed power system and thus can be used to quantify earthquake economic risk. Using MC results, the SLRF was evaluated to be 19.7 h and the expected economic consequence cost of a M6.8 PHF event was found to be $\$180$ million with an annualized risk of $\$90,000$ given the event’s 1 in 2000 year probability of occurrence. The MC results also identified the eight most consequential substations in the PGE system—i.e., those that contributed to maximum load loss. This paper concludes that retrofitting these substations reduced the expected consequence cost of a M6.8 PHF event to $117 million.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Ground-motions site and event specificity: Insights from assessing a suite of simulated ground motions in the San Francisco Bay Area

This article presents the results of a research that is part of a larger collaborative effort between the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, funded by the US Department of Energy Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security and Emergency Response. The main objective of this study is to assess a suite of near and far-field simulated ground motions obtained from 20 realizations of an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area, California USA, and inform the selection of rupture simulation parameters leading to strong motions. To this aim, comparisons are conducted with NGA-W2 and directivity ground-motion models and a selected population of records. An archetypal steel moment-resisting frame is utilized to assess infrastructure response distributions. The analyses carried out for each simulated event and subdomain with consistent properties in terms of shallow shear-wave velocity proved to be instrumental for better interpreting the differences between simulated motions and empirical models. The main reasons identified for variances between simulations and empirical relationships included (1) directivity effects fully captured by the simulations across the full breadth of rupture models; (2) site vicinity to ruptures that incorporate large-slip patches, particularly if these are in the forward-directivity direction; and (3) presence of geologic structures that can “trap” seismic waves and produce ground motions with large amplitude and long signal duration. The analyses carried out in this work provide a path for interpreting ground-motion site and event specificity obtained from a suite of physics-based simulations, differing only in the rupture model characterization, to inform the selection of simulation scenarios for site-specific engineering analyses under strong excitations. Evidence from this work points to the possibility that current hazard models may underestimate ground-motion intensities in areas where the combined effect of directivity and site conditions results in large ground-motion amplitudes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Open Source DataTurbine Initiative: Streaming Data Middleware for Environmental Observing Systems

The Open Source DataTurbine Initiative is an international community of scientists and engineers sharing a common interest in real-time streaming data middleware and applications. The technology base of the OSDT Initiative is the DataTurbine open source middleware. Key applications of DataTurbine include coral reef monitoring, lake monitoring and limnology, biodiversity and animal tracking, structural health monitoring and earthquake engineering, airborne environmental monitoring, and environmental sustainability. DataTurbine software emerged as a commercial product in the 1990 s from collaborations between NASA and private industry. In October 2007, a grant from the USA National Science Foundation (NSF) Office of Cyberinfrastructure allowed us to transition DataTurbine from a proprietary software product into an open source software initiative. This paper describes the DataTurbine software and highlights key applications in environmental monitoring.

Fountain T.↗

Quantifying modeling uncertainty in simplified beam models for building response prediction

The use of simple models for response prediction of building structures is preferred in earthquake engineering for risk evaluations at regional scales, as they make computational studies more feasible. The primary impediment in their gainful use presently is the lack of viable methods for quantifying (and reducing upon) the modeling errors/uncertainties they bear. This study presents a Bayesian calibration method wherein the modeling error is embedded into the parameters of the model. Here, the method is specifically described for coupled shear-flexural beam models here, but it can be applied to any parametric surrogate model. The major benefit the method offers is the ability to consider the modeling uncertainty in the forward prediction of any degree-of-freedom or composite response regardless of the data used in calibration. The method is extensively verified using two synthetic examples. In the first example, the beam model is calibrated to represent a similar beam model but with enforced modeling errors. In the second example, the beam model is used to represent the detailed finite element model of a 52-story building. Both examples show the capability of the proposed solution to provide realistic uncertainty estimation around the mean prediction.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Accelerating uncertainty quantification in incremental dynamic analysis using dimension reduction-based surrogate modeling

We propose a surrogate modeling framework based on dimension reduction to facilitate the quantification of seismic risk of structural systems in performance-based earthquake engineering. The framework adopts incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) for addressing hazard variability, and promotes significant computational efficiency improvement for propagating epistemic uncertainties associated with the structural models. It utilizes both linear and nonlinear dimension reduction approaches, equipped with inverse mappings, to learn a functional between the input parameter space (e.g., the epistemic uncertainties of the structure) to the high-dimensional output space created through the IDA implementation across different ground motions and seismic intensity levels. Polynomial chaos expansion is adopted as the surrogate model to learn this functional in the reduced space. A nine-story steel moment-resisting frame with uncertain structural properties is used as a testbed. Furthermore, we select the seismic fragility curves as a measure of the structure’s seismic performance, since it provides an estimate of the probability of entering specified damage states for given levels of ground shaking.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Unexpected Scaling of Peak Acceleration for a Yielding Mass-Spring System Subjected to a Triangular Base Acceleration Pulse

The use of bounding scenarios is a common practice that greatly simplifies the design and qualification of structures. However, this approach implicitly assumes that the quantities of interest increase monotonically with the input to the structure, which is not necessarily true for nonlinear structures. This paper surveys the literature for observations of nonmonotonic behavior of nonlinear systems and finds such observations in both the earthquake engineering and applied mechanics literature. Numerical simulations of a single degree-of-freedom mass-spring system with an elastic–plastic spring subjected to a triangular base acceleration pulse are then presented, and it is shown that the relative acceleration of this system scales nonmonotonically with the input magnitude in some cases. The equation of motion for this system is solved symbolically and an approximate expression for the relative acceleration is developed, which qualitatively agrees with the nonmonotonic behavior seen in the numerical results. The nonmonotonicity is investigated and found to be a result of dynamics excited by the discontinuous derivative of the base acceleration pulse, the magnitude of which scales nonmonotonically with the input magnitude due to the fact that the first yield of the spring occurs earlier as the input magnitude is increased. The relevance of this finding within the context of defining bounding scenarios is discussed, and it is recommended that modeling be used to perform a survey of the full range of possible inputs prior to defining bounding scenarios.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Conditioned Simulation of Ground-Motion Time Series at Uninstrumented Sites Using Gaussian Process Regression

Ground-motion time series are essential input data in seismic analysis and performance assessment of the built environment. Because instruments to record free-field ground motions are generally sparse, methods are needed to estimate motions at locations with no available ground-motion recording instrumentation. In this study, given a set of observed motions, ground-motion time series at target sites are constructed using a Gaussian process regression (GPR) approach, which treats the real and imaginary parts of the Fourier spectrum as random Gaussian variables. Model training, verification, and applicability studies are carried out using the physics-based simulated ground motions of the 1906 Mw 7.9 San Francisco earthquake and Mw 7.0 Hayward fault scenario earthquake in northern California. Additionally, the method’s performance is further evaluated using the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake ground motions recorded by the Community Seismic Network stations located in southern California. These evaluations indicate that the trained GPR model is able to adequately estimate the ground-motion time series for frequency ranges that are pertinent for most earthquake engineering applications. The trained GPR model exhibits proper performance in predicting the long-period content of the ground motions as well as directivity pulses.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Matrix Perturbation Techniques in Structural Dynamics

Matrix perturbation are developed techniques which can be used in the dynamical analysis of structures where the range of numerical values in the matrices extreme or where the nature of the damping matrix requires that complex valued eigenvalues and eigenvectors be used. The techniques can be advantageously used in a variety of fields such as earthquake engineering, ocean engineering, aerospace engineering and other fields concerned with the dynamical analysis of large complex structures or systems of second order differential equations. A number of simple examples are included to illustrate the techniques.

Caughey, T. K.↗

Nonstationary envelope process and first excursion probability.

The definition of stationary random envelope proposed by Cramer and Leadbetter, is extended to the envelope of nonstationary random process possessing evolutionary power spectral densities. The density function, the joint density function, the moment function, and the crossing rate of a level of the nonstationary envelope process are derived. Based on the envelope statistics, approximate solutions to the first excursion probability of nonstationary random processes are obtained. In particular, applications of the first excursion probability to the earthquake engineering problems are demonstrated in detail.

Yang, J.-N.↗

Design, Fabrication and Testing of an Experimental Apparatus for Determining Particle Behavior Under Very Low Intergranular Stresses

Because the constitutive laws for soils are governed mainly by interparticle friction, all aspects of their mechanical behavior depend strongly on gravitational body forces. This fact poses serious limitations on the formulation of a materially objective soil constitutive theory, based on experimentation performed on Earth. In particular, the presence of the Earth's gravity prohibits the design of controlled experiments to properly simulate a variety of critical phenomena associated with the dynamic response of soils to seismic excitation in a very low effective confining stress field. For these reasons, laboratory-controlled experiments in the Space Shuttle, under essentially zero-gravity conditions, could offer invaluable opportunities for developing a quantitative understanding of fundamental aspects of soil behavior during or after an earthquake, which, in turn, could result in significant technological advances in geotechnical earthquake engineering.

Sture, S.↗

A computational method for the determination of the response of a linear system

A number of issues are discussed relating to the analysis of a linear damped oscillator equation with a forcing term where the right side of the equation, g(t), is known only at fixed, equal time intervals. (A particular class of such equations has application to civil earthquake engineering.) It is noted that the equation is not a differential equation because the condition of uniqueness does not obtain. A general computational method is presented for calculating x(t), based on an unconditionally stable finite difference technique. The work generalizes the results given in the recent paper of Ly (1984).

Mickens, R. E.↗

A Project Lifetime Approach to the Management of Induced Seismicity Risk at Geologic Carbon Storage Sites

The geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is one method that can help reduce atmospheric CO 2 by sequestering it into the subsurface. Large-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage, however, may be accompanied by induced seismicity. We present a project lifetime approach to address the induced seismicity risk at these geologic storage sites. This approach encompasses both technical and nontechnical stakeholder issues related to induced seismicity and spans the time period from the initial consideration phase to postclosure. These recommendations are envisioned to serve as general guidelines, setting expectations for operators, regulators, and the public. They contain a set of seven actionable focus areas, the purpose of which are to deal proactively with induced seismicity issues. Although each geologic carbon storage site will be unique and will require a custom approach, these general best practice recommendations can be used as a starting point to any site-specific plan for how to systematically evaluate, communicate about, and mitigate induced seismicity at a particular reservoir.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An open-access simulated earthquake ground-motion database for an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region

Comprehensive understanding of earthquake ground motions, particularly in the near-fault region of large-magnitude events, is limited by gaps in strong-motion data. This challenge is prominent in areas with high seismic hazard but infrequent large earthquakes where data is sparse and difficult to interpret. These data limitations lead to uncertainties in the development of site-specific ground motions, which are crucial for engineering risk assessments. To address these challenges, physics-based regional-scale ground-motion simulations have been developed. With the emergence of exaflop-scale computing ecosystems, it is now possible to simulate regional earthquake processes at unprecedented fidelity and generate the large number of fault rupture realizations necessary to characterize both intra- and inter-event ground-motion variability. This article introduces a new database of simulated earthquake ground motions, created for applications in earthquake engineering, earthquake planning, and emergency response. The inaugural version of the database features simulated ground motions for a magnitude 7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region (SFBR), using the EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) simulation framework and the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture model. The aim is to provide high-fidelity, spatially dense, three-component motions generated on the Department of Energy’s (DOE) newest generation of graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated supercomputers. These motions are being made openly available to the engineering, scientific, and disaster planning communities. In addition, this work develops protocols for the efficient dissemination of these large data sets and emphasizes community engagement to build confidence in their application. This article discusses the methodology behind the data, underlying software verification and validation, scalable data management, and a user interface for data access. The goal is to facilitate widespread use and elicit expert feedback to maximize the utility and exploitation of simulated motions. While the initial focus is on the San Francisco Region, simulations for additional regions will be added as the DOE program progresses.

Simulated ground-motion database↗

Capabilities of multivariate Bayesian inference toward seismic hazard assessment

Multivariate Bayesian analysis can bring significant benefits to seismic hazard analysis: Its multivariate feature enables computing scalar and vector hazard without making any approximations; Correlations between intensity measures are implicitly modeled, permitting direct simulation of ground motion selection tools such as the conditional mean spectrum and the generalized conditioning intensity measure; and Its updating feature enables a seamless integration of new ground motion data into the hazard results. Here, we first develop a multivariate Bayesian ground motion model through the NGA-West2 database. The model functional form considers fault-type, magnitude, and distance dependencies, and also the linear and the rock intensity dependent site response. We use a hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to perform Bayesian inference consisting of Gibbs step and a multilevel Metropolis-Hastings step. We then perform several checks on the model and note that its performance is satisfactory. Finally, we illustrate the merits of this multivariate Bayesian analysis, which include: ground motion model updating with ground motion data recorded in the last four years not part of the NGA-West2 database; computation of scalar and vector seismic hazard using the un-updated and updated ground motion models for Los Angeles, CA; and simulation of the conditional mean spectrum under scalar and vector IM conditioning while accounting for different sources of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗