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In this video there are scenes of damage from the Northridge Earthquake and interviews with Dr. Andrea Donnelan, Geophysics at JPL, and Dr. Jim Dolan, earthquake geologist from Cal. Tech. The interviews discuss earthquake forecasting by tracking changes in the earth's crust using antenna receiving signals from a series of satellites called the Global Positioning System (GPS).
Observational architectures for allowing the eventual forecasting of earthquakes are discussed.
No abstract available
We review research developments on satellite detection of the convection generated stresses in the Earth for seismic hazard assessment and Earth resource survey. Particular emphasis is laid upon recent progress and results of stress calculations from which the origin and evolution of the tectonic features on Earth's surface can be scientifically addressed. An important aspect of the recent research development in tectonic stresses relative to earthquakes is the implications for earthquake forecasting and prediction. We have demonstrated that earthquakes occur on the ring of fire around the Pacific in response to the tectonic stresses induced by mantle convection. We propose a systematic global assessment of the seismic hazard based on variations of tectonic stresses in the Earth as observed by satellites. This space geodynamic approach for assessing the seismic hazard is unique in that it can pinpoint the triggering stresses for large earthquakes without ambiguities of geological structures, fault geometries, and other tectonic properties. Also, it is distinct from the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment models in the literature, which are based only on extrapolations of available earthquake data.
We propose to observe seismically and tectonically active regions in northern and southern California using UAVSAR to support EarthScope activities. We will test the earthquake forecasting methodology developed by Rundle through NASA's QuakeSim project by observing regions indicated as having high probability for earthquakes in the near future (5-10 years). The UAVSAR flights will serve as a baseline for pre-earthquake activity. Should an earthquake occur during the course of this project, we will also be able to observe postseismic motions associated with the earthquakes.
Papers are presented dealing with prediction and forecasting earthquakes, the Haicheng earthquake of 1975, earthquake resistivity of factory structures, and earthquake studies and actions in China.
We are using Web (Grid) service technology to demonstrate the assimilation of multiple distributed data sources (a typical data grid problem) into a major parallel high-performance computing earthquake forecasting code. Such a linkage of Geoinformatics with Geocomplexity demonstrates the value of the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory (SERVO) Grid concept, and advance Grid technology by building the first real-time large-scale data assimilation grid Here we develop the next steps for both the SERVO concept and the identified need for a Solid Earth problem-solving environment. We use a challenging motivating problem of importance to NASA namely integrating NASA space geodetic observations with numerical simulations of a changing earth.
We are developing simulation and analysis tools in order to develop a solid Earth science framework for understanding and studying active tectonic and earthquake processes. The goal of QuakeSim and its extension, the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory (SERVO), is to study the physics of earthquakes using state-of-the-art modeling, data manipulation, and pattern recognition technologies. We are developing clearly defined accessible data formats and code protocols as inputs to simulations, which are adapted to high-performance computers. The solid Earth system is extremely complex and nonlinear resulting in computationally intensive problems with millions of unknowns. With these tools it will be possible to construct the more complex models and simulations necessary to develop hazard assessment systems critical for reducing future losses from major earthquakes. We are using Web (Grid) service technology to demonstrate the assimilation of multiple distributed data sources (a typical data grid problem) into a major parallel high-performance computing earthquake forecasting code. Such a linkage of Geoinformatics with Geocomplexity demonstrates the value of the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory (SERVO) Grid concept, and advances Grid technology by building the first real-time large-scale data assimilation grid.
QuakeSim 2.0 improves understanding of earthquake processes by providing modeling tools and integrating model applications and various heterogeneous data sources within a Web services environment. QuakeSim is a multisource, synergistic, data-intensive environment for modeling the behavior of earthquake faults individually, and as part of complex interacting systems. Remotely sensed geodetic data products may be explored, compared with faults and landscape features, mined by pattern analysis applications, and integrated with models and pattern analysis applications in a rich Web-based and visualization environment. Integration of heterogeneous data products with pattern informatics tools enables efficient development of models. Federated database components and visualization tools allow rapid exploration of large datasets, while pattern informatics enables identification of subtle, but important, features in large data sets. QuakeSim is valuable for earthquake investigations and modeling in its current state, and also serves as a prototype and nucleus for broader systems under development. The framework provides access to physics-based simulation tools that model the earthquake cycle and related crustal deformation. Spaceborne GPS and Inter ferometric Synthetic Aperture (InSAR) data provide information on near-term crustal deformation, while paleoseismic geologic data provide longerterm information on earthquake fault processes. These data sources are integrated into QuakeSim's QuakeTables database system, and are accessible by users or various model applications. UAVSAR repeat pass interferometry data products are added to the QuakeTables database, and are available through a browseable map interface or Representational State Transfer (REST) interfaces. Model applications can retrieve data from Quake Tables, or from third-party GPS velocity data services; alternatively, users can manually input parameters into the models. Pattern analysis of GPS and seismicity data has proved useful for mid-term forecasting of earthquakes, and for detecting subtle changes in crustal deformation. The GPS time series analysis has also proved useful as a data-quality tool, enabling the discovery of station anomalies and data processing and distribution errors. Improved visualization tools enable more efficient data exploration and understanding. Tools provide flexibility to science users for exploring data in new ways through download links, but also facilitate standard, intuitive, and routine uses for science users and end users such as emergency responders.
The Space Borne Event Timer is a part of the NASA laser ranging system that is intended to operate aboard the Space Shuttle orbiting over California. The object is to measure, by laser ranging, the earth movement along the San Andreas fault and possibly forecast future earthquakes. A number of cube reflector targets will be placed along both sides of the fault. The ranging system aboard the Space Shuttle will fire a burst of laser pulses at each target and detect the reflected light. Time differences between pulses from the two sides of the fault will indicate earth displacements. The Space Borne Event Timer is a CAMAC compatible system that provides extremely accurate timing data and controls the operation of the ranging system. For each event the time is given in 19.53 increments from the instant of firing the laser to the instant the reflected light is received back, within a range of 130 days.
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Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
The Caribbean plate project is designed to improve current understanding of geological resources and geological hazards within the Caribbean region. Models of mineral occurrence and genesis (including energy resources) on a regional scale, which contribute to nonrenewable resource investigations. Models of lithospheric stress and strain on a regional scale, which contribute to forecasting geological hazards such as earthquakes and major volcanic eruptions are developed. Geological information is synthesize, and research tools provided by space technology the study of the Earth's crust are used. The project was organized in a thematic fashion, to focus on specific geological aspects of the Caribbean plate which are considered to be key factors in developing the types of models described. The project adopts a synoptic perspective in seeking to characterize the three dimensional structure, composition, state of stress, and evolution of the entire Caribbean plate. Geological information derived from analysis of space acquired data is combined with information provided by conventional methods to obtain insight into the structure, composition, and evolution of the Earth's crust. In addition, very long baseline interferometry and laser ranging techniques, which are also based upon the use of space technology, obtain information concerning crustal motion that, in turn, provides insight into the distribution and localization of crustal stress.
A review is presented of the stability and scale of crustal deformation metrology which has particular relevance to monitoring deformation associated with sea level and earthquakes. Developments in space geodesy and crustal deformation metrology in the last two decades have the potential to acquire a homogeneous global data set for monitoring relative horizontal and vertical motions of the earth's surface to within several millimeters. New tools discussed for forecasting sea level rise and damaging earthquakes include: very long baseline interferometry, satellite laser ranging, the principles of GPS geodesy, and new sea level sensors. Space geodesy permits a unified global basis for future metrology of the earth, and the continued availability of the GPS is currently fundamental to this unification.
We are using the QuakeSim environment to model interacting fault systems. One goal of QuakeSim is to prepare for the large volumes of data that spaceborne missions such as DESDynI will produce. QuakeSim has the ability to ingest distributed heterogenous data in the form of InSAR, GPS, seismicity, and fault data into various earthquake modeling applications, automating the analysis when possible. Virtual California simulates interacting faults in California. We can compare output from long time history Virtual California runs with the current state of strain and the strain history in California. In addition to spaceborne data we will begin assimilating data from UAVSAR airborne flights over the San Francisco Bay Area, the Transverse Ranges, and the Salton Trough. Results of the models are important for understanding future earthquake risk and for providing decision support following earthquakes. Improved models require this sensor web of different data sources, and a modeling environment for understanding the combined data.
Neural networks are an outgrowth of interdisciplinary studies concerning the brain. These studies are guiding the field of Artificial Intelligence towards the, so-called, 6th Generation Computer. Enormous amounts of resources have been poured into R/D. Wavelet Transforms (WT) have replaced Fourier Transforms (FT) in Wideband Transient (WT) cases since the discovery of WT in 1985. The list of successful applications includes the following: earthquake prediction; radar identification; speech recognition; stock market forecasting; FBI finger print image compression; and telecommunication ISDN-data compression.
Of the major coastal land change mechanisms responsible for relative sea-level change, tectonic subsidence is generally quoted as ranging from < mm/yr to 1 cm/yr. However, we documented coseismic and ongoing post-earthquake surface displacements from continuous GPS and tide gauge/altimetry data that indicated rapid subsidence on two of the major Samoan Islands of 12 - 20 cm during and following the 8.1 2009 Tonga-Samoa earthquake. Earlier results and our modeling of GRACE-derived gravimetric data provided a preliminary forecast of future relative sea-level rise through rapid land subsidence [Han et al., 2019]. Of course these numerical forecasts of time-dependent deformation are only as good as our input observations and our assumed rheological models. As part of our current NASA Earth Surface and Interior study, we are obtaining a wider range of data to constrain and test alternate models of ongoing postseismic deformation across American Samoa and Upolu, Samoa: (1) times series of altimetry plus tide gauge data processed to complement the cGPS data available to provide high-temporal resolution, point measurements of uplift/subsidence, (2) InSAR derived observations of surface deformation across the highly vegetated Samoan Islands, (3) evaluating and using NASA satellite lidar data (ICESat-I & ICESat-II, GEDI) for fusion with multi-source topographic data sets and for estimating topographic change on the decadal time scale. We are evaluating and using these new observations to better understand and separate out local, island-wide, and multi-island subsidence patterns and to evaluate the high impact of rising sea-level in a tectonically active region.