Economic Viability of a Satellite Surveying System Final Report
Economic viability based on market analysis study of satellite land-surveying system
Brockman, W. E.↗
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Demonstration of a Probabilistic Technique for the Determination of Economic Viability of Very Large Transport Configurations
Over the past few years, modem aircraft design has experienced a paradigm shift from designing for performance to designing for affordability. This report contains a probabilistic approach that will allow traditional deterministic design methods to be extended to account for disciplinary, economic, and technological uncertainty. The probabilistic approach was facilitated by the Fast Probability Integration (FPI) technique; a technique which allows the designer to gather valuable information about the vehicle's behavior in the design space. This technique is efficient for assessing multi-attribute, multi-constraint problems in a more realistic fashion. For implementation purposes, this technique is applied to illustrate how both economic and technological uncertainty associated with a Very Large Transport aircraft concept may be assessed. The assessment is evaluated with the FPI technique to determine the cumulative probability distributions of the design space, as bound by economic objectives and performance constraints. These distributions were compared to established targets for a comparable large capacity aircraft, similar in size to the Boeing 747-400. The conventional baseline configuration design space was determined to be unfeasible and marginally viable, motivating the infusion of advanced technologies, including reductions in drag, specific fuel consumption, wing weight, and Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation costs. The resulting system design space was qualitatively assessed with technology metric "k" factors. The infusion of technologies shifted the VLT design into regions of feasibility and greater viability. The study also demonstrated a method and relationship by which the impact of new technologies may be assessed in a more system focused approach.
Mavris, Dimitri N.↗
An advanced concept that promises ecological and economic viability
The actuality of supersonic commercial service being provided by Concorde is demonstrating to the world the advantages offered by supersonic travel for both business and recreation. Public acceptance will gradually and persistently stimulate interest to proceed with a second generation design that meets updated economic and ecological standards. It is estimated that this concept could operate profitably on world-wide routes with a revenue structure based upon economy fares. Airplanes will meet all present day ecological requirements regarding noise and emissions.
Wright, B. R.↗
The economic viability of pursuing a space power system concept
The development of a space power system requires no fundamental technological breakthroughs. There are, however, uncertainties regarding the degree to which necessary developments can be achieved or exceeded. An analysis is conducted concerning the implementation of a 5000 MW space-based solar power system based on photovoltaic conversion of solar energy to electrical energy. The solar array is about 13 km long and 5 km wide. Placed in geosynchronous orbit, it provides power to the earth for 30 years. Attention is given to the economic feasibility of a space power system, a risk analysis for space power systems, and the use of the presented methodology for comparing alternative technology development programs.
Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗
Economic viability of photovoltaic power for development assistance applications
This paper briefly discusses the development assistance market and examines a number of specific photovoltaic (PV) development assistance field tests, including water pumping/grain grinding (Tangaye, Upper Volta), vaccine refrigerators slated for deployment in 24 countries, rural medical centers to be installed in Ecuador, Guyana, Kenya and Zimbabwe, and remote earth stations to be deployed in the near future. A comparison of levelized energy cost for diesel generators and PV systems covering a range of annual energy consumptions is also included. The analysis does not consider potential societal, environmental or political benefits associated with PV power. PV systems are shown to be competitive with diesel generators, based on life cycle cost considerations, assuming a system price of $20/W(peak), for applications having an annual energy demand of up to 6000 kilowatt-hours per year.
Bifano, W. J.↗
Study of quiet turbofan STOL aircraft for short-haul transportation. Volume 5: Economics
The economic aspects of the STOL aircraft for short-haul air transportation are discussed. The study emphasized the potential market, the preferred operational concepts, the design characteristics, and the economic viability. Three central issues governing economic viability are as follows: (1) operator economics given the market, (2) the required transportation facilities, and (3) the external economic effects of a set of regional STOL transportation systems.
Source record↗
Economic and environmental aspects of STOL transportation
A system study to analyze the question of the impact of advanced STOL aircraft in meeting the needs of short-haul air transportation systems is discussed. The study is concerned with the following aspects: (1) service to the passenger, (2) economic viability, and (3) economic criteria to include community noise, ground and air decongestion, and air pollution. The STOL aircraft parameters are defined. Preliminary conclusions concerning the feasibility of short-haul air transportation are presented.
Stewart, E. C.↗
Cold Aero Performance of a Two-Dimensional Mixer Ejector Nozzle
Since 1986, NASA and the U.S. aerospace industry have been assessing the economic viability and environmental acceptability of a second-generation supersonic civil transport, or High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT). Environmental acceptability in terms of airport community noise and economic viability are critical elements in this endeavor. Development of a propulsion system that satisfies strict airport noise regulations (FAR36 Stage III levels), at acceptable performance and weight, is critical to the success of any HSCT program. Two-dimensional mixer-ejector (2DME) exhaust systems are one approach in achieving this goal. In support of HSCT development, GEAE (GE Aircraft Engines), under contract to the NASA Glenn Research Center, conducted this test program at the NASA Langley 16 ft transonic wind tunnel to evaluate the cold aerodynamic performance aspects of the 2DME exhaust system concept. The effects of SAR (SAR, suppressor area ratio, = mixed-flow area/primary nozzle throat area), MAR (MAR = overall exhaust system exit/mixing-plane area), flap length, CER (suppressor chute expansion ratio), chute alignment, and free stream Mach number were investigated on a 1/11th cold aerodynamic scale model of a 2DME exhaust system.
Balan, C.↗
Using Global Market Demand Analysis to Guide Conceptual Design of Low-Boom Supersonic Transports
This paper uses a mathematical framework to identify the interdependencies of key variables in supersonic transportation demand analysis. The existing quantitative models for supersonic transportation demand analysis are compared for consistency in modeling the interdependencies. Unlike other quantitative models, the Low-Boom Systems Analysis Model (LBSAM2) can propagate important design characteristics of a supersonic transport aircraft concept to the level of economic metrics (such as the number of future supersonic passengers), with a consistent coupling of the market demand analysis, detailed mission analysis, and low-boom constraint. This allows the use of the detailed demand analysis results from LBSAM2 to maximize the economic viability of a supersonic transport aircraft by finding favorable system-level trades between weight, range, fuel burn, and assumed sonic boom ground noise limit for supersonic overland flight. In this paper, LBSAM2 is integrated with conceptual low-boom design to improve the economic viability of low-boom supersonic transport aircraft. A brief discussion of uncertainties in the LBSAM2 analysis is also included, focusing on their impacts on the relative economic advantages between low-boom concepts.
Consistent coupling of disciplinary analyses↗
Using Global Market Demand Analysis to Guide Conceptual Design of Low-Boom Supersonic Transports
This paper uses a mathematical framework to identify the interdependencies of key variables in supersonic transportation demand analysis. The existing quantitative models for supersonic transportation demand analysis are compared for consistency in modeling the interdependencies. Unlike other quantitative models, the Low-Boom Systems Analysis Model (LBSAM2) can propagate important design characteristics of a supersonic transport aircraft concept to the level of economic metrics (such as the number of future supersonic passengers), with a consistent coupling of the market demand analysis, detailed mission analysis, and low-boom constraint. This allows the use of the detailed demand analysis results from LBSAM2 to maximize the economic viability of a supersonic transport aircraft by finding favorable system-level trades between weight, range, fuel burn, and assumed sonic boom ground noise limit for supersonic overland flight. In this paper, LBSAM2 is integrated with conceptual low-boom design to improve the economic viability of low-boom supersonic transport aircraft. A brief discussion of uncertainties in the LBSAM2 analysis is also included, focusing on their impacts on the relative economic advantages between low-boom concepts.
Equilibrium state of supersonic market↗
The high speed civil transport: A technology challenge
It has been over 17 years since Concorde entered service with British Airways and Air France. The thirteen production aircraft are still safely operating and may extend their service life into the next century. We can appreciate the technical success Concorde has achieved. However, from the onset the aircraft was unable to achieve overall economic viability. Currently the aircraft does generate a yearly profit for British Airways which is privatized. Unacceptable airport noise and sonic boom overland levels were detrimental to the aircraft performing between many worldwide city pairs. On the horizon appears a possible successor to Concorde that will need to demonstrate environmental acceptability and economic viability shortly after the turn of the century. This vehicle has been labelled the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT). I believe that we can overcome the environmental and economic goals based on encouraging market demand forecasts and technology improvements that are materializing in current research and development programs.
Mortlock, Alan K.↗
Economic benefits of supersonic overland operation
Environmental concerns are likely to impose some restrictions on the next generation of supersonic commercial transport. There is a global concern over the effects of engine emissions on the ozone layer which protects life on Earth from ultraviolet radiation. There is also some concern over community noise. The High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) must meet at least the current subsonic noise certification standards to be compatible with the future subsonic fleet. Concerns over sonic boom represent another environmental and marketing challenge to the HSCT program. The most attractive feature of the supersonic transport is speed, which offers the traveling public significant time-savings on long range routes. The sonic boom issue represents a major environmental and economic challenge as well. Supersonic operation overland produces the most desirable economic results. However, unacceptable overland sonic boom raise levels may force HSCT to use subsonic speeds overland. These environmental and economic challenges are likely to impose some restrictions on supersonic operation, thus introducing major changes to existing route structures and future supersonic network composition. The current subsonic route structure may have to be altered for supersonic transports to avoid sensitive areas in the stratosphere or to minimize overland flight tracks. It is important to examine the alternative route structure and the impact of these restrictions on the economic viability of the overall supersonic operation. Future market potential for HSCT fleets must be large enough to enable engine and airframe manufacturers to build the plane at a cost that provides them with an attractive return on investment and to sell it at a price that allows the airlines to operate with a reasonable margin of profit. Subsonic overland operation of a supersonic aircraft hinders its economic viability. Ways to increase the market potential of supersonic operation are described.
Metwally, Munir↗
SPS-ALPHA: The First Practical Solar Power Satellite via Arbitrarily Large Phased Array
The vision of delivering solar power to Earth from platforms in space has been known for decades. However, early architectures to accomplish this vision were technically complex and unlikely to prove economically viable. Some of the issues with these earlier solar power satellite (SPS) concepts – particularly involving technical feasibility – were addressed by NASA’s space solar power (SSP) studies and technology research in the mid-to-late 1990s. Despite that progress, ten years ago a number of key technical and economic uncertainties remained. A new SPS concept has been proposed that resolves many, if not all, of those uncertainties: “SPSALPHA” (Solar Power Satellite by means of Arbitrarily Large Phased Array). During 2011-2012 the NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) Program supported a Phase 1 “SPS-ALPHA” project, the goal of which was to establish the technical and economic viability of the SPS-ALPHA concept to an early TRL 3 – analytical proof-of-concept – and provide a framework for further study and technology development. The objectives of this project were to: (1) conduct an initial end-to-end systems analysis of the SPS-ALPHA concept in order to determine its technical feasibility; (2) identify and assess in greater detail the key technology challenges inherent in the architecture (including figures of merit for each critical technology area); (3) conduct an initial evaluation of the economic viability of the concept (as a function of key performance parameters); and, (4) define a preliminary roadmap for the further development of the SPS-ALPHA concept.
Mankins, John↗
Wind turbine siting: A summary of the state of the art
The process of siting large wind turbines may be divided into two broad steps: site selection, and site evaluation. Site selection is the process of locating windy sites where wind energy development shows promise of economic viability. Site evaluation is the process of determining in detail for a given site the economic potential of the site. The state of the art in the first aspect of siting, site selection is emphasized. Several techniques for assessing the wind resource were explored or developed in the Federal Wind Energy Program. Local topography and meteorology will determine which of the techniques should be used in locating potential sites. None of the techniques can do the job alone, none are foolproof, and all require considerable knowledge and experience to apply correctly. Therefore, efficient siting requires a strategy which is founded on broad based application of several techniques without relying solely on one narrow field of expertise.
Hiester, T. R.↗
Application of thermal energy storage to process heat recovery in the aluminum industry
The economic viability and the institutional compatibility of a district heating system in the city of Bellingham, Washington are assessed and the technical and economic advantages of using thermal energy storage methods are determined.
Mccabe, J.↗
A look at V/STOL for business aircraft.
Attempt to ascertain the economic viability of the V/STOL capability for business aircraft and the manner in which this viability depends on the aircraft concept. A cost-benefit analysis is presented which indicates that a VTOL business aircraft would be more viable economically than a contemporary turbine-powered business aircraft. The combination of traveler's time value and trip distance for which each aircraft dominates is shown. The significance of disk loading in V/STOL concept application is discussed, and preliminary design configuration studies for three different business-aircraft-sized V/STOLs, using three concepts covering a range of disk loading, are presented as examples. Finally, a discussion of operational aspects of interest to future users of V/STOL business aircraft is presented which centers around the requirements for routine IFR terminal-area operations.
Feistel, T. W.↗
Enabling Airspace Integration for High-Density On-Demand Mobility Operations
Aviation technologies and concepts have reached a level of maturity that may soon enable an era of on-demand mobility (ODM) fueled by quiet, efficient, and largely automated air taxis. However, successfully bringing such a system to fruition will require introducing orders of magnitude more aircraft to a given airspace volume than can be accommodated by the traditional air traffic control system, among other important technical challenges. The airspace integration problem is further compounded by requirements to set aside appropriate ground infrastructure for take-off and landing areas and ensuring these new aircraft types and their operations do not burden traditional airspace users and air traffic control. This airspace integration challenge may be significantly reduced by extending the concepts and technologies developed to manage small unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) at low altitude - the UAS traffic management (UTM) system - to higher altitudes and new aircraft types, or by equipping ODM aircraft with advanced sensors, algorithms, and interfaces. The precedent of operational freedom inherent in visual flight rules and the technologies developed for large UAS and commercial aircraft automation will contribute to the evolution of an ODM system enabled by UTM. This paper describes the set of air traffic services, normally provided by the traditional air traffic system, that an ODM system would implement to achieve the high densities needed for ODM's economic viability. Finally, the paper proposes a framework for integrating, evaluating, and deploying low-, medium-, and high-density ODM concepts that build on each other to ensure operational and economic feasibility at every step.
Mueller, Eric↗
Enabling Airspace Integration for High-Density On-Demand Mobility Operations
Aviation technologies and concepts have reached a level of maturity that may soon enable an era of on-demand mobility (ODM) fueled by quiet, efficient, and largely automated air taxis. However, successfully bringing such a system to fruition will require introducing orders of magnitude more aircraft to a given airspace volume than can be accommodated by the traditional air traffic control system, among other important technical challenges. The airspace integration problem is further compounded by requirements to set aside appropriate ground infrastructure for take-off and landing areas and ensuring these new aircraft types and their operations do not burden traditional airspace users and air traffic control. This airspace integration challenge may be significantly reduced by extending the concepts and technologies developed to manage small unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) at low altitudethe UAS traffic management (UTM) systemto higher altitudes and new aircraft types, or by equipping ODM aircraft with advanced sensors, algorithms, and interfaces. The precedent of operational freedom inherent in visual flight rules and the technologies developed for large UAS and commercial aircraft automation will contribute to the evolution of an ODM system enabled by UTM. This paper describes the set of air traffic services, normally provided by the traditional air traffic system, that an ODM system would implement to achieve the high densities needed for ODMs economic viability. Finally, the paper proposes a framework for integrating, evaluating, and deploying low-, medium-, and high-density ODM concepts that build on each other to ensure operational and economic feasibility at every step.
Mueller, Eric↗