Climate Change Accuracy: Observing Requirements and Economic Value
No abstract available
Wielicki, Bruce↗
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Climate Change Observation Accuracy: Requirements and Economic Value
This presentation will summarize a new quantitative approach to determining the required accuracy for climate change observations. Using this metric, most current global satellite observations struggle to meet this accuracy level. CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is a new satellite mission designed to resolve this challenge is by achieving advances of a factor of 10 for reflected solar spectra and a factor of 3 to 5 for thermal infrared spectra. The CLARREO spectrometers can serve as SI traceable benchmarks for the Global Satellite Intercalibration System (GSICS) and greatly improve the utility of a wide range of LEO and GEO infrared and reflected solar satellite sensors for climate change observations (e.g. CERES, MODIS, VIIIRS, CrIS, IASI, Landsat, etc). A CLARREO Pathfinder mission for flight on the International Space Station is included in the U.S. Presidentâ€"TM"s fiscal year 2016 budget, with launch in 2019 or 2020. Providing more accurate decadal change trends can in turn lead to more rapid narrowing of key climate science uncertainties such as cloud feedback and climate sensitivity. A new study has been carried out to quantify the economic benefits of such an advance and concludes that the economic value is ~ $9 Trillion U.S. dollars. The new value includes the cost of carbon emissions reductions.
Wielicki, Bruce↗
Profiling Airborne Microwave Radiometer for Atmospheric and Cloud Research
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Peaceful uses of earth-observation spacecraft. Volume I - Introduction and summary
Earth orbiting satellite observation for science and economics
SCIENTIFIC SATELLITE↗
Brief History of Agricultural Systems Modeling
Agricultural systems science generates knowledge that allows researchers to consider complex problems or take informed agricultural decisions. The rich history of this science exemplifies the diversity of systems and scales over which they operate and have been studied. Modeling, an essential tool in agricultural systems science, has been accomplished by scientists from a wide range of disciplines, who have contributed concepts and tools over more than six decades. As agricultural scientists now consider the next generation models, data, and knowledge products needed to meet the increasingly complex systems problems faced by society, it is important to take stock of this history and its lessons to ensure that we avoid re-invention and strive to consider all dimensions of associated challenges. To this end, we summarize here the history of agricultural systems modeling and identify lessons learned that can help guide the design and development of next generation of agricultural system tools and methods. A number of past events combined with overall technological progress in other fields have strongly contributed to the evolution of agricultural system modeling, including development of process-based bio-physical models of crops and livestock, statistical models based on historical observations, and economic optimization and simulation models at household and regional to global scales. Characteristics of agricultural systems models have varied widely depending on the systems involved, their scales, and the wide range of purposes that motivated their development and use by researchers in different disciplines. Recent trends in broader collaboration across institutions, across disciplines, and between the public and private sectors suggest that the stage is set for the major advances in agricultural systems science that are needed for the next generation of models, databases, knowledge products and decision support systems. The lessons from history should be considered to help avoid roadblocks and pitfalls as the community develops this next generation of agricultural systems models.
agricultural systems↗
Methodology to evaluate design modifications intended to eliminate frosting and high discharge temperatures in air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) in cold climates
Air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) operating in cold climates experience problems with frosting and high refrigerant temperatures. These problems increase energy consumption, and their severity depends on the climatic conditions. In the present paper, a methodology for identifying the prevailing problem between frosting and high discharge temperatures is presented. Three performance indices, the frosting index (FI), the discharge index (DI), and the total loss index (TLI), are proposed to quantify the impacts of frosting and high discharge temperatures on the annual performance of ASHPs in different climatic conditions. The FI and DI show which problem (frosting or high discharge temperature) dominates, and the TLI indicates the combined effect of frosting and high discharge temperatures on the performance of an ASHP. A thermodynamic model of an ASHP coupled with the TRNSYS building simulation tool is used to estimate the performance of an ASHP and the proposed loss indices to estimate the impact of both frosting and high discharge temperatures for 45 cities in Canada. The results can be extended to other parts of the world that experience similar climatic conditions The results reveal that in cities in ASHRAE climatic zones 5 and 6 (classified as cold regions) where the ambient air temperatures are predominantly between -15 °C to 6 °C, ASHPs are heavily impacted by frosting. The problem of high discharge temperatures in ASHPs is predominant in cities in climate zones 7 and 8 (classified as very cold and subarctic regions) where the temperatures are frequently below -20 °C in winter. Among the cities considered, St. John, NL has the highest fraction of heating hours experiencing frosting (90 %), where the annual increase in energy consumption due to frosting is 13.5 % of the annual heating energy consumption. The highest annual increase in energy consumption due to high discharge temperatures is in Isachsen, NU (zone 8), where the increase is 30 % of the annual heating energy consumption. Based on the proposed indices, another index called the performance gain index (PGI) is created, which can be used as a first step to assess the energy-saving potential of design modifications applied to ASHPs to solve the problems of frosting and high discharge temperatures. The PGI will aid in developing climate specific ASHPs. One possible design modification is the use of a two-stage ASHP with an economizer. It is observed that the two-stage ASHP with economizer can mitigate high discharge temperatures and improve performance in very cold and subarctic regions (zones 7 and 8). However, it is not as beneficial in zones 5 and 6, where the impact of high discharge temperatures on performance is minimal and frosting dominates. Finally, a case study, using the PGI to evaluate the economic and environmental effectiveness of a two-stage ASHP with economizer is presented for the city of Saskatoon.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Social, economic and political factors associated with earth resources observation and information analyses.
Discussion of some of the interest conflicts between ecology and economics that arise, particularly in riparian environments, when a population-increase entailed growth in public service requirements is met by indiscriminate technology applications. Reviewed instances of such conflicts include the aborted cross-Florida barge canal project and the Florida Power and Light Company facility at Turkey point.
Hall, J. J.↗
Evidence for globally coherent variability in solar magnetic flux emergence
We examine the large-scale spatial and temporal variations in the emergence of X-ray bright points on the sun, in order to study the global properties of magnetic flux emergence. Major variations in the rate of flux emergence are observed at all solar latitudes, on a time scale of 3-5 months. The most economical explanation of the observations is that the full sun participated in a single large eruptive event during the available 8 month observing period from Skylab in 1973. The peak of this global event corresponds in time to the eruption of a major complex of activity. Moreover, it appears that the only portion of the solar surface which deviates from the above pattern of behavior is the low latitude region in the vicinity of the AR complex; this area shows a temporary depletion immediately following the AR outburst. The high-latitude regions in both hemispheres show the same variation and appear to lead the low-latitude emergence by approximately 1 month.
Golub, L.↗
Observing Climate Change From Space: Approach, Requirements, and Economic Value
No abstract available
Mlynczak, M.↗
Cost-optimal wave-powered persistent oceanographic observation
Not Available
Dillon, Trent (ORCID:0000000201036449)↗
The Value of Near Real-Time Earth Observations for Improved Flood Disaster Response
Information is a critical resource in disaster response scenarios. Data regarding the geographic extent, severity, and socioeconomic impacts of a disaster event can help guide emergency responders and relief operations, particularly when delivered within hours of data acquisition. Information from remote observations provides a valuable tool for assessing conditions "on the ground" more quickly and efficiently. Here, we evaluate the social value of a near real-time flood impact system using a disaster response case study, and quantify the Value of Information (VOI) of satellite-based observations for rapid response using a hypothetical flooding disaster in Bangkok, Thailand. MODIS imagery from NASA's Land, Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE) system is used to produce operational estimates of inundation depths and economic damages.These rapid Earth observations are coupled with a decision-analytical model to inform decisions on emergency vehicle routing. Emergency response times from vehicles routed using flood damage data are compared with baseline routes without the benefit of advance information on road conditions. Our results illustrate how the application of near real-time Earth observations can improve the response time and reduce potential encounters with flood hazards when compared with baseline routing strategies. Results indicate a potential significant economic benefit (i.e.,millions of dollars) from applying near real-time Earth observations for improved flood disaster response and management.
emergency response↗
NASA's Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) Mission
The Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) Mission is one of the first Earth observation satellites being formulated by NASA in response to the 2007 National Research Council s Decadal Survey. SMAP will make global measurements of soil moisture at the Earth's land surface and its freeze-thaw state. These measurements will allow significantly improved estimates of water, energy and carbon transfers between the land and atmosphere. Soil moisture measurements are also of great importance in assessing flooding and monitoring drought. Knowledge gained from SMAP observations can help mitigate these natural hazards, resulting in potentially great economic and social benefits. SMAP observations of soil moisture and freeze/thaw timing over the boreal latitudes will also reduce a major uncertainty in quantifying the global carbon balance and help to resolve an apparent missing carbon sink over land. The SMAP mission concept will utilize an L-band radar and radiometer sharing a rotating 6-meter mesh reflector antenna flying in a 680 km polar orbit with an 8-day exact ground track repeat aboard a 3-axis stabilized spacecraft to provide high-resolution and high-accuracy global maps of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state every two to three days. In addition, the SMAP project will use these surface observations with advanced modeling and data assimilation to provide estimates of deeper root-zone soil moisture and net ecosystem exchange of carbon. SMAP recently completed its Phase A Mission Concept Study Phase for NASA and transitioned into Phase B (Formulation and Detailed Design). A number of significant accomplishments occurred during this initial phase of mission development. The SMAP project held several open meetings to solicit community feedback on possible science algorithms, prepared preliminary draft Algorithm Theoretical Basis Documents (ATBDs) for each mission science product, and established a prototype algorithm testbed to enable testing and evaluation of the performance of candidate algorithms. SMAP conducted an Applications Workshop in September 2009 to coordinate with potential application users interested in the mission data. A draft Applications Plan describing the Project s planned outreach to potential applications users has been prepared and will be updated during Phase B. SMAP made a significant evaluation of the potential terrestrial radio frequency interference (RFI) source environment and established radiometer and radar flight hardware and ground processing mitigation approaches. SMAP finalized its science orbit and orbit injection approach to optimize launch mass and prepared launch and commissioning scenarios and timeline. A science data communications approach was developed to maximize available science data volume to improve science margins while maintaining moderately short data product latencies to support many potential applications using existing ground assets and with minimum impact to the flight system. SMAP developed rigid multi-body and flexible body dynamics and control models and system designs for the 6-meter rotating instrument reflector-boom assembly (RBA) and flight system to confirm pointing and control performance, and devised strategies to efficiently implement on-orbit balancing if needed. Industry partners were selected for the spin mechanism assembly (SMA) and RBA. Preliminary designs for the radar and radiometer were initiated, including constructing breadboards of key assemblies.
Kellogg, Kent↗
Impacts and Conclusions of NASA DEVELOP’s Environmental Justice Landscape Analyses and Feasibility Studies
The NASA DEVELOP National Program builds dual capacity in their partner organizations and participants (students and early or transitioning career professionals) to apply Earth science and remote sensing for decision making about environmental and policy issues. The first iteration of projects at DEVELOP’s Environmental Justice (EJ) node conducted landscape analyses to identify geospatial understandings and needs of organizations working at the intersection of EJ and disasters and air quality. Their findings about collaboration, community engagement, networking, and holistic approaches to justice informed the planning and structures of the EJ node’s successive feasibility projects, which leverage NASA Earth observations and sociodemographic and economic data to provide geospatial analyses tailored to partner concerns. This poster provides an overview of DEVELOP’s approach to conducting EJ feasibility projects, use of Earth observations, end products, project outcomes, challenges, and impacts.
Julianne Bo-Heen Liu↗
Hawai‘i Island Disasters: Using NASA Earth Observations to Assess Coastal Flood Risk with Measures of Land Cover Change, Flood Extent, and Vulnerability for Adaptation and Mitigation Planning on Hawai‘i Island
As the County of Hawai‘i faces an increased risk of extreme flooding events, sea-level rise, and other hazards associated with climate change, the need for building geospatial capacity to make better-informed decisions is critical. The County of Hawai‘i and Arizona State University partnered with NASA DEVELOP to complete a macro-scale risk analysis for the island of Hawai‘i analyzing flooding, land cover, vulnerability, and exposure factors using Earth observations and socio-economic data. The team assessed the variation in urban coastal vulnerability around the entire island of Hawai‘i, using satellite imagery of coastal land cover typology from satellite products such as Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), and Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). The team made a sharable geodatabase containing datasets modeling vulnerability to coastal flooding as well as the Hawai‘i Flood Risk Toolbox (HiFloRT) which contains multiple tools for the County to map land cover, extreme rainfall and flood extent across the Island. The end products will allow the County of Hawai‘i to establish a protocol and standard framework for the utilization of Earth observations in future planning.
Garren Kalter↗
Dynamic optimization and economic evaluation of flexible heat integration in a hybrid concentrated solar power plant
Hybridization of concentrated solar power (CSP) plants provides flexibility in operation that can drastically improve the solar-to-electric (STE) efficiency and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) relative to standalone CSP plants. Flexible heat integration (FHI) is a novel concept where the collection and integration of CSP within a power plant is modified relative to the amount of solar energy available. FHI improves the thermal efficiency of a hybrid solar tower steam Rankine cycle power plant but leads to increased pumping needs due to continuously elevated molten salt flow rates through the collection system, which can negatively impact STE efficiency. The present work is carried out to maximize the STE efficiency of a hybrid CSP plant utilizing FHI by employing a dynamic optimization framework where a genetic algorithm optimizes the operation of the plant over a given solar irradiance profile. The study concerns a plant hypothetically located in Salt Lake City, Utah. Here, the optimization results confirm the accuracy of a predictive heuristic where the preferred operation of the plant can be estimated relative to local peaks in the incident power generated by the heliostat collection field. The optimized FHI operation demonstrates a yearly STE efficiency of 13.8%, whereas the equivalent base-level hybrid and solar-only plants exhibit solar efficiencies of 13.4% and 11.2%, respectively. Economic analysis shows that FHI reduces yearly natural gas costs, leading to a $\$0.5$/MWh reduction in LCOE relative to the base-level hybrid configuration. Overall, the results show that hybrid FHI schemes exhibit economic benefits along with observed thermodynamic improvements.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Editorial: Neuroscience, computing, performance, and benchmarks: Why it matters to neuroscience how fast we can compute
At the turn of the millennium the computational neuroscience community realized that neuroscience was in a software crisis: software development was no longer progressing as expected and reproducibility declined. The International Neuroinformatics Coordinating Facility (INCF) was inaugurated in 2007 as an initiative to improve this situation. The INCF has since pursued its mission to help the development of standards and best practices. In a community paper published this very same year, Brette et al. tried to assess the state of the field and to establish a scientific approach to simulation technology, addressing foundational topics, such as which simulation schemes are best suited for the types of models we see in neuroscience. In 2015, a Frontiers Research Topic “Python in neuroscience” by Muller et al. triggered and documented a revolution in the neuroscience community, namely in the usage of the scripting language Python as a common language for interfacing with simulation codes and connecting between applications. The review by Einevoll et al. documented that simulation tools have since further matured and become reliable research instruments used by many scientific groups for their respective questions. Open source and community standard simulators today allow research groups to focus on their scientific questions and leave the details of the computational work to the community of simulator developers. A parallel development has occurred, which has been barely visible in neuroscientific circles beyond the community of simulator developers: Supercomputers used for large and complex scientific calculations have increased their performance from ~10 TeraFLOPS (10 13 floating point operations per second) in the early 2000s to above 1 ExaFLOPS (10 18 floating point operations per second) in the year 2022. This represents a 100,000-fold increase in our computational capabilities, or almost 17 doublings of computational capability in 22 years. Moore's law (the observation that it is economically viable to double the number of transistors in an integrated circuit every other 18–24 months) explains a part of this; our ability and willingness to build and operate physically larger computers, explains another part. It should be clear, however, that such a technological advancement requires software adaptations and under the hood, simulators had to reinvent themselves and change substantially to embrace this technological opportunity. It actually is quite remarkable that—apart from the change in semantics for the parallelization—this has mostly happened without the users knowing. The current Research Topic was motivated by the wish to assemble an update on the state of neuroscientific software (mostly simulators) in 2022, to assess whether we can see more clearly which scientific questions can (or cannot) be asked due to our increased capability of simulation, and also to anticipate whether and for how long we can expect this increase of computational capabilities to continue.
biophysically detailed models↗
SWOT: The Surface Water and Ocean Topography Mission. Wide- Swath Altimetric Elevation on Earth
The elevation of the surface of the ocean and freshwater bodies on land holds key information on many important processes of the Earth System. The elevation of the ocean surface, called ocean surface topography, has been measured by conventional nadirlooking radar altimeter for the past two decades. The data collected have been used for the study of large-scale circulation and sea level change. However, the spatial resolution of the observations has limited the study to scales larger than about 200 km, leaving the smaller scales containing substantial kinetic energy of ocean circulation that is responsible for the flux of heat, dissolved gas and nutrients between the upper and the deep ocean. This flux is important to the understanding of the ocean's role in regulatingfuture climate change.The elevation of the water bodies on land is a key parameter required for the computation of storage and discharge of freshwater in rivers, lakes, and wetlands. Globally, the spatial and temporal variability of water storage and discharge is poorly known due to the lack of well-sampled observations. In situ networks measuring river flows are declining worldwide due to economic and political reasons. Conventional altimeter observations suffers from the complexity of multiple peaks caused by the reflections from water, vegetation canopy and rough topography, resulting in much less valid data over land than over the ocean. Another major limitation is the large inter track distance preventing good coverage of rivers and other water bodies.This document provides descriptions of a new measurement technique using radar interferometry to obtain wide-swath measurement of water elevation at high resolution over both the ocean and land. Making this type of measurement, which addresses the shortcomings of conventional altimetry in both oceanographic and hydrologic applications, is the objective of a mission concept called Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT), which was recommended by the National Research Council's first decadal survey of NASA's Earth science program. This document provides wide-ranging examples of research opportunities in oceanography and land hydrology that would be enabled by the new type of measurement. Additional applications in many other branches of Earth System science ranging from ocean bathymetry to sea ice dynamics are also discussed. Many of the technical issues in making the measurement are discussed as well. Also presented is a preliminary design of the SWOT Mission concept, which is being jointly developed by NASA and CNES, with contributions from the Canadian Space Agency.
altimetry↗
Very Large Eddy Simulations of a Jet-A Spray Reacting Flow in a Single Element LDI Injector With and Without Invoking an Eulerian Scalar DWFDF Method
This paper presents the very large eddy simulations (VLES) of a Jet-A spray reacting flow in a single element lean direct injection (LDI) injector by using the National Combustion Code (NCC) with and without invoking the Eulerian scalar DWFDF method, in which DWFDF is defined as the density weighted time filtered fine grained probability density function. The flow field is calculated by using the time filtered compressible Navier-Stokes equations (TFNS) with nonlinear subscale turbulence models, and when the Eulerian scalar DWFDF method is invoked, the energy and species mass fractions are calculated by solving the equation of DWFDF. A nonlinear subscale model for closing the convection term of the Eulerian scalar DWFDF equation is used and will be briefly described in this paper. Detailed comparisons between the results and available experimental data are carried out. Some positive findings of invoking the Eulerian scalar DWFDF method in both improving the simulation quality and maintaining economic computing cost are observed.
Shih, Tsan-Hsing↗