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NASA NTRS2025

Assessing Commercialization Strategies for Evolving Network Demand (ASCEND) in the NASA Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Program

What will NASA’s future communications demand and expenditure look like, in a paradigm where space policy encourages maximum private sector involvement? In this paper we consider this question, as NASA moves towards commercial procurement for Direct-To-Earth and Space Relay communication services. We develop a new quantitative Techno-Economic Assessment (TEA) model capable of evaluating the incremental cost over time to NASA of utilizing commercial communication services, for different mission and market scenarios. We find that current and future NASA demand could be viably procured from commercial services, with the potential to reduce cost using non-exclusive networks and the sharing of fixed costs. However, there is a key trade-off identified between maximizing economies of scale benefits and ensuring sufficient competition between communication providers to avoid collusion and excessive pricing. For example, procuring from 1-2 providers would maximize scale economies, whereas procuring from 5-6 providers would maximize competition. Given this context, it would be prudent to seek to award service contracts for 3-4 providers to optimize economies of scale benefits, while mitigating possible market collusion. These recommendations enable NASA to successfully achieve its scientific mission over the next decade, while managing limited financial and networking resources.

NSN↗

NASA NTRS1981

An economy of scale system's mensuration of large spacecraft

The systems technology and cost particulars of using multipurpose platforms versus several sizes of bus type free flyer spacecraft to accomplish the same space experiment missions. Computer models of these spacecraft bus designs were created to obtain data relative to size, weight, power, performance, and cost. To answer the question of whether or not large scale does produce economy, the dominant cost factors were determined and the programmatic effect on individual experiment costs were evaluated.

Deryder, L. J.↗

NASA NTRS2004

AsterAnts: A Concept for Large-Scale Meteoroid Return and Processing using the International Space Station

AsterAnts is a concept calling for a fleet of solar sail powered spacecraft to retrieve large numbers of small (1/2-1 meter diameter) Near Earth Objects (NEOs) for orbital processing. AsterAnts could use the International Space Station (ISS) for NEO processing, solar sail construction, and to test NEO capture hardware. Solar sails constructed on orbit are expected to have substantially better performance than their ground built counterparts [Wright 1992]. Furthermore, solar sails may be used to hold geosynchronous communication satellites out-of-plane [Forward 1981] increasing the total number of slots by at least a factor of three. potentially generating $2 billion worth of orbital real estate over North America alone. NEOs are believed to contain large quantities of water, carbon, other life-support materials and metals. Thus. with proper processing, NEO materials could in principle be used to resupply the ISS, produce rocket propellant, manufacture tools, and build additional ISS working space. Unlike proposals requiring massive facilities, such as lunar bases, before returning any extraterrestrial larger than a typical inter-planetary mission. Furthermore, AsterAnts could be scaled up to deliver large amounts of material by building many copies of the same spacecraft, thereby achieving manufacturing economies of scale. Because AsterAnts would capture NEOs whole, NEO composition details, which are generally poorly characterized, are relatively unimportant and no complex extraction equipment is necessary. In combination with a materials processing facility at the ISS, AsterAnts might inaugurate an era of large-scale orbital construction using extraterrestrial materials.

Globus, Al↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Automated Reconfigurable Mission Adaptive Digital Assembly Systems (ARMADAS): Robotically Assembled Sustainable Lunar Infrastructure

Introduction: The Automated Reconfigurable Mission Adaptive Digital Assembly Systems (ARMADAS) project at NASA Ames Research Center is developing autonomous infrastructure, instrumentation, and spacecraft assembly and manufacturing capabilities for next generation exploration and science missions, with a goal to change the cost scaling of these missions relative to mission size and duration. Using a building-block approach with a 'kit of parts' composed of ultra-light, high-performance mechanical metamaterials, simplified robots leverage the period environment to achieve high levels of autonomy and reliability for in-space and surface assembly of large-scale apertures, solar-arrays, towers, habitats, and other infrastructure. Robots and structure break down into a compact form factor for launch. By leveraging economies of scale and achieving high-packing ratios, ARMADAS technology can revolutionize possible space missions by breaking the tyranny of the launch shroud, decreasing development times, decreasing mission costs for transformative science capability, and providing a scalable and versatile space infrastructure strategy. Capabilities: To date, the ARMADAS project has demonstrated autonomous assembly of large numbers of structural modules into a meters-scale structure in an earth gravity environment. The mechanical performance is on par with conventional space structures, at a fraction of the cost. By using highly repeatable manufacturing processes (injection molding carbon fiber reinforced space-rated polymers), the structures are both cost effective and highly precise. The ARAMADAS system carefully designs parts for high-precision assembly–the simple and cost-effective robots build structures much larger and more precise than themselves. While maintaining structural efficiency, the ARMADAS system encompasses many functional module types, including for solar power, comm/power routing, etc., that will enable entire infrastructure systems to be engineered and autonomously assembled with modular parts. With well-defined interfaces, custom instrumentation modules can easily be added to fit many mission objectives. Lunar Infrastructure Vision: At the LSIC spring meeting, ARMADAS will present a vision for a general-purpose lunar construction kit capable of meeting a wide variety of lunar surface infrastructure needs (Figure 1). Investing in an ecosystem of reconfigurable, discretely repairable parts and robots enables systems than can expand their capability, reconfigure to meet emergency or unforeseen needs, self-repair and reduce spare-part needs. With a small set of parts (module types), a wide variety of infrastructure needs can be met. Footing modules will allow infrastructure construction at locations with no surface preparation. Footer, primary structure, and rail modules can create reconfigurable rail systems. These rail systems can be used to reduce cost-of-transport between frequently accessed sites, provide dust mitigation, and convey power and communications. High-performance structure modules combined with power-routing and solar modules can create tall towers for power and communication. Concepts for habitats and garages encompass a structure to support regolith cover for a pre-integrated module to an entirely ARMADAS system-based structure. This system can be leveraged by many in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) technologies to simplify processes and augment capabilities.

C. E. Gregg↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Autonomous Lunar Infrastructure Outfitting

The Automated Reconfigurable Mission Adaptive Digital Assembly Systems (ARMADAS) project at NASA Ames Research Center is developing autonomous infrastructure, instrumentation, and spacecraft assembly and manufacturing capabilities for next generation exploration and science missions, with a goal to change the cost scaling of these missions relative to mission size and duration. Using a building-block approach with a 'kit of parts' composed of ultra-light, high-performance mechanical metamaterials, simplified robots leverage the period environment to achieve high levels of autonomy and reliability for in-space and surface assembly of large-scale apertures, solar-arrays, towers, habitats, and other infrastructure. Robots and structure break down into a compact form factor for launch. By leveraging economies of scale and achieving high-packing ratios, ARMADAS technology can revolutionize space missions by breaking the tyranny of the launch shroud, decreasing development times, decreasing mission costs for transformative science capability, and providing a scalable and versatile space infrastructure strategy. An ecosystem of reconfigurable infrastructure modules can be reused, repaired, expanded reconfigured to meet emergency or unforeseen needs, and reduce spare parts.

Christine Gregg↗

NASA NTRS2003

Flame Synthesis Of Single-Walled Carbon Nanotubes And Nanofibers

Carbon nanotubes are widely sought for a variety of applications including gas storage, intercalation media, catalyst support and composite reinforcing material [1]. Each of these applications will require large scale quantities of CNTs. A second consideration is that some of these applications may require redispersal of the collected CNTs and attachment to a support structure. If the CNTs could be synthesized directly upon the support to be used in the end application, a tremendous savings in post-synthesis processing could be realized. Therein we have pursued both aerosol and supported catalyst synthesis of CNTs. Given space limitations, only the aerosol portion of the work is outlined here though results from both thrusts will be presented during the talk. Aerosol methods of SWNT, MWNT or nanofiber synthesis hold promise of large-scale production to supply the tonnage quantities these applications will require. Aerosol methods may potentially permit control of the catalyst particle size, offer continuous processing, provide highest product purity and most importantly, are scaleable. Only via economy of scale will the cost of CNTs be sufficient to realize the large-scale structural and power applications on both earth and in space. Present aerosol methods for SWNT synthesis include laser ablation of composite metalgraphite targets or thermal decomposition/pyrolysis of a sublimed or vaporized organometallic [2]. Both approaches, conducted within a high temperature furnace, have produced single-walled nanotubes (SWNTs). The former method requires sophisticated hardware and is inherently limited by the energy deposition that can be realized using pulsed laser light. The latter method, using expensive organometallics is difficult to control for SWNT synthesis given a range of gasparticle mixing conditions along variable temperature gradients; multi-walled nanotubes (MWNTs) are a far more likely end products. Both approaches require large energy expenditures and produce CNTs at prohibitive costs, around $500 per gram. Moreover these approaches do not possess demonstrated scalability. In contrast to these approaches, flame synthesis can be a very energy efficient, low-cost process [3]; a portion of the fuel serves as the heating source while the remainder serves as reactant. Moreover, flame systems are geometrically versatile as illustrated by innumerable boiler and furnace designs. Addressing scalability, flame systems are commercially used for producing megatonnage quantities of carbon black [4]. Although it presents a complex chemically reacting flow, a flame also offers many variables for control, e.g. temperature, chemical environment and residence times [5]. Despite these advantages, there are challenges to scaling flame synthesis as well.

Wal, Randy L. Vander↗

NASA NTRS2001

Flame Synthesis Used to Create Metal-Catalyzed Carbon Nanotubes

Metal-catalyzed carbon nanotubes are highly ordered carbon structures of nanoscale dimensions. They may be thought of as hollow cylinders whose walls are formed by single atomic layers of graphite. Such cylinders may be composed of many nested, concentric atomic layers of carbon or only a single layer, the latter forming a single-walled carbon nanotube. This article reports unique results using a flame for their synthesis. Only recently were carbon nanotubes discovered within an arc discharge and recognized as fullerene derivatives. Today metal-catalyzed carbon nanotubes are of great interest for many reasons. They can be used as supports for the metal catalysts like those found in catalytic converters. Open-ended nanotubes are highly desirable because they can be filled by other elements, metals or gases, for battery and fuel cell applications. Because of their highly crystalline structure, they are significantly stronger than the commercial carbon fibers that are currently available (10 times as strong as steel but possessing one-sixth of the weight). This property makes them highly desirable for strengthening polymer and ceramic composite materials. Current methods of synthesizing carbon nanotubes include thermal pyrolysis of organometallics, laser ablation of metal targets within hydrocarbon atmospheres at high temperatures, and arc discharges. Each of these methods is costly, and it is unclear if they can be scaled for the commercial synthesis of carbon nanotubes. In contrast, flame synthesis is an economical means of bulk synthesis of a variety of aerosol materials such as carbon black. Flame synthesis of carbon nanotubes could potentially realize an economy of scale that would enable their use in common structural materials such as car-body panels. The top figure is a transmission electron micrograph of a multiwalled carbon nanotube. The image shows a cross section of the atomic structure of the nanotube. The dark lines are individual atomic layer planes of carbon, seen here in cross section. They form a nested series of concentric cylinders, much like the growth rings on a tree. This sample was obtained by the supported catalyst method, whereby the nanoscale catalysts are dispersed on a substrate providing their support. The substrate with catalyst particles was immersed within an acetylene diffusion flame to which nitrogen had been added to eliminate soot formation. Upon removal from the flame, the nanotubes were dispersed on a holder suitable for electron microscopy. Although not seen in the figure, the tube diameter reflects that of the catalyst particle.

VanderWal, Randy L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Messaging with Cost-Optimized Interstellar Beacons

On Earth, how would we build galactic-scale beacons to attract the attention of extraterrestrials, as some have suggested we should do? From the point of view of expense to a builder on Earth, experience shows an optimum trade-off. This emerges by minimizing the cost of producing a desired power density at long range, which determines the maximum range of detectability of a transmitted signal. We derive general relations for cost-optimal aperture and power. For linear dependence of capital cost on transmitter power and antenna area, minimum capital cost occurs when the cost is equally divided between antenna gain and radiated power. For nonlinear power-law dependence, a similar simple division occurs. This is validated in cost data for many systems; industry uses this cost optimum as a rule of thumb. Costs of pulsed cost-efficient transmitters are estimated from these relations by using current cost parameters ($/W, $/sq m) as a basis. We show the scaling and give examples of such beacons. Galactic-scale beacons can be built for a few billion dollars with our present technology. Such beacons have narrow "searchlight" beams and short "dwell times" when the beacon would be seen by an alien observer in their sky. More-powerful beacons are more efficient and have economies of scale: cost scales only linearly with range R, not as R(exp 2), so number of stars radiated to increases as the square of cost. On a cost basis, they will likely transmit at higher microwave frequencies, -10 GHz. The natural corridor to broadcast is along the galactic radius or along the local spiral galactic arm we are in. A companion paper asks "If someone like us were to produce a beacon, how should we look for it?"

Benford, James↗

NASA NTRS1990

Manual control aspects of orbital flight

Studies of spacecraft rendezvous and docking operations began in the Gemini program in preparation for the two dockings required to send a crew to the moon and return them safely to Earth. However, the goal of getting to the moon before the end of the decade was of greater concern than mission optimization so little or no time or money was expended in researching human factors implications of operational aspects such as braking gates or control modes. Also, with sixteen operational dockings over a six year period (12 Apollo, 3 Skylab, and 1 ASTP) in the United States space program, economies of scale were not yet available to justify extensive research into decreasing the time or fuel necessary for a successful docking. With an operational space station era approaching in which orbital maneuvering vehicle (OMV), orbital transfer vehicle (OTV), shuttle orbiter, and other traffic will play a major role, a concerted research effort now could help avoid many potential problems later in addition to increasing safety, fuel economy, and productivity. A knowledge of manual control capabilities associated with piloted spaceflight could help save a life if the operational flight envelope can be safely enlarged to include faster dockings that currently envisioned. For example, current and future research is designed to acquire the appropriate information.

Brody, Adam R.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Macroeconomic Benefits of Low-Cost Reusable Launch Vehicles

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) initiated its Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Technology Program to provide information on the technical and commercial feasibility of single-stage to orbit (SSTO), fully-reusable launchers. Because RLVs would not depend on expendable hardware to achieve orbit, they could take better advantage of economies of scale than expendable launch vehicles (ELVs) that discard costly hardware on ascent. The X-33 experimental vehicle, a sub-orbital, 60%-scale prototype of Lockheed Martin's VentureStar SSTO RLV concept, is being built by Skunk Works for a 1999 first flight. If RLVs achieve prices to low-earth orbit of less than $1000 US per pound, they could hold promise for eliciting an elastic response from the launch services market. As opposed to the capture of existing market, this elastic market would represent new space-based industry businesses. These new opportunities would be created from the next tier of business concepts, such as space manufacturing and satellite servicing, that cannot earn a profit at today's launch prices but could when enabled by lower launch costs. New business creation contributes benefits to the US Government (USG) and the US economy through increases in tax revenues and employment. Assumptions about the costs and revenues of these new ventures, based on existing space-based and aeronautics sector businesses, can be used to estimate the macroeconomic benefits provided by new businesses. This paper examines these benefits and the flight prices and rates that may be required to enable these new space industries.

Shaw, Eric J.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Space program payload costs and their possible reduction

The possible ways by which NASA payload costs might be reduced in the future were studied. The major historical reasons for payload costs being as they were, and if there are technologies (hard and soft), or criteria for technology advances, that could significantly reduce total costs of payloads were examined. Payload costs are placed in historical context. Some historical cost breakdowns for unmanned NASA payloads are presented to suggest where future cost reductions could be most significant. Space programs of NOAA, DoD and COMSAT are then examined to ascertain if payload reductions have been brought about by the operational (as opposed to developmental) nature of such programs, economies of scale, the ability to rely on previously developed technology, or by differing management structures and attitudes. The potential impact was investigated of NASA aircraft-type management on spacecraft program costs, and some examples relating previous costs associated with aircraft costs on the one hand and manned and unmanned costs on the other are included.

Vanvleck, E. M.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Determinants of Market Structure and the Airline Industry

The general economic determinants of market structure are outlined with special reference to the airline industry. Included are the following facets: absolute size of firms; distributions of firms by size; concentration; entry barriers; product and service differentiation; diversification; degrees of competition; vertical integration; market boundaries; and economies of scale. Also examined are the static and dynamic properties of market structure in terms of mergers, government policies, and economic growth conditions.

Raduchel, W.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Characteristics of future air cargo demand and impact on aircraft development: A report on the Cargo/Logistic Airlift Systems Study (CLASS) project

Current domestic and international air cargo operations are studied and the characteristics of 1990 air cargo demand are postulated from surveys conducted at airports and with shippers, consignees, and freight forwarders as well as air, land, and ocean carriers. Simulation and route optimization programs are exercised to evaluate advanced aircraft concepts. The results show that proposed changes in the infrastructure and improved cargo loading efficiencies are as important enhancing the prospects of air cargo growth as is the advent of advanced freighter aircraft. Potential reductions in aircraft direct operating costs are estimated and related to future total revenue. Service and cost elasticities are established and utilized to estimate future potential tariff reductions that may be realized through direct and indirect operating cost reductions and economies of scale.

Whitehead, A. H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Communication architecture for large geostationary platforms

Large platforms have been proposed for supporting multipurpose communication payloads to exploit economy of scale, reduce congestion in the geostationary orbit, provide interconnectivity between diverse earth stations, and obtain significant frequency reuse with large multibeam antennas. This paper addresses a specific system design, starting with traffic projections in the next two decades and discussing tradeoffs and design approaches for major components including: antennas, transponders, and switches. Other issues explored are selection of frequency bands, modulation, multiple access, switching methods, and techniques for servicing areas with nonuniform traffic demands. Three-major services are considered: a high-volume trunking system, a direct-to-user system, and a broadcast system for video distribution and similar functions. Estimates of payload weight and d.c. power requirements are presented. Other subjects treated are: considerations of equipment layout for servicing by an orbit transfer vehicle, mechanical stability requirements for the large antennas, and reliability aspects of the large number of transponders employed.

Bond, F. E.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Geostationary multipurpose platforms

In addition to the advantages generally associated with orbital platforms, such as improved reliability, economies of scale, simple connectivity of elements, reduced tracking demands and the restraint of orbital object population growth, geostationary platforms yield: (1) continuous access by fixed ground antennas for communications services; (2) continuous monitoring of phenomena over chosen regions of the earth's surface; (3) a preferred location for many solar-terrestrial physics experiments. The geostationary platform also offers a low-risk and economical solution to the impending saturation of the orbital arc/frequency spectrum, maximizing the capacity of individual slots and increasing the utility of the entire arc. It also allows the use of many small, simple and inexpensive earth stations through complexity inversion and high power per beam. Block diagram and operational flowcharts are provided.

Bekey, I.↗

NASA NTRS1982

An experimental geostationary platform - A step toward the 1990's

NASA studies on geostationary platforms are reviewed. Traffic models for geostationary missions through the year 2000 are presented, and the benefits of platforms are shown, as compared with accomplishing the same missions on specialized satellites. These benefits are illustrated by a case study (involving Leasat) demonstrating that substantial cost savings can result because of economies of scale. Technologies in need of development and demonstration are identified, and attention is given to the potential NASA Experimental Geostationary Platform.

Carey, W. T., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Low-cost solar array project progress and plans

The considered project is part of the DOE Photovoltaic Technology and Market Development Program. This program is concerned with the development and the utilization of cost-competitive photovoltaic systems. The project has the objective to develop, by 1986, the national capability to manufacture low-cost, long-life photovoltaic arrays at production rates that will realize economies of scale, and at a price of less than $0.70/watt. The array performance objectives include an efficiency greater than 10% and an operating lifetime longer than 20 years. The objective of the silicon material task is to establish the practicality of processes for producing silicon suitable for terrestrial photovoltaic applications at a price of $14/kg. The large-area sheet task is concerned with the development of process technology for sheet formation. Low-cost encapsulation material systems are being developed in connection with the encapsulation task. Another project goal is related to the development of economical process sequences.

Callaghan, W. T.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The economics of time shared computing: Congestion, user costs and capacity

Time shared systems permit the fixed costs of computing resources to be spread over large numbers of users. However, bottleneck results in the theory of closed queueing networks can be used to show that this economy of scale will be offset by the increased congestion that results as more users are added to the system. If one considers the total costs, including the congestion cost, there is an optimal number of users for a system which equals the saturation value usually used to define system capacity.

Agnew, C. E.↗