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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models

The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W/sq. m, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W/sq. m from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W/sq. m from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W/sq. m from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W/sq. m from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W/sq. m. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W/sq. m is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W/sq. m, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.

effective radiative forcing↗
NASA NTRS2021

Effective radiative forcing from emissions of reactive gases and aerosols - a multi-model comparison

This paper quantifies the pre-industrial (1850) to present-day (2014) effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic emissions of NOX, volatile organic compounds (VOCs; including CO), SO2, NH3, black carbon, organic carbon, and concentrations of methane, N2O and ozone-depleting halocarbons, using CMIP6 models. Concentration and emission changes of reactive species can cause multiple changes in the composition of radiatively active species: tropospheric ozone, stratospheric ozone, stratospheric water vapour, secondary inorganic and organic aerosol, and methane. Where possible we break down the ERFs from each emitted species into the contributions from the composition changes. The ERFs are calculated for each of the models that participated in the AerChemMIP experiments as part of the CMIP6 project, where the relevant model output was available. The 1850 to 2014 multi-model mean ERFs (± standard deviations) are −1.03 ± 0.37 W/sq.m for SO2 emissions, −0.25 ± 0.09 W/sq.m for organic carbon (OC), 0.15 ± 0.17 W/sq.m for black carbon (BC) and −0.07 ± 0.01 W/sq.m for NH3. For the combined aerosols (in the piClim-aer experiment) it is −1.01 ± 0.25 W/sq.m. The multi-model means for the reactive well-mixed greenhouse gases (including any effects on ozone and aerosol chemistry) are 0.67 ± 0.17 W/sq.m for methane (CH4), 0.26 ± 0.07 W/sq.m for nitrous oxide (N2O) and 0.12 ± 0.2 W/sq.m for ozone-depleting halocarbons (HC). Emissions of the ozone precursors nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and both together (O3) lead to ERFs of 0.14 ± 0.13, 0.09 ± 0.14 and 0.20 ± 0.07 W/sq.m respectively. The differences in ERFs calculated for the different models reflect differences in the complexity of their aerosol and chemistry schemes, especially in the case of methane where tropospheric chemistry captures increased forcing from ozone production.

radiative forcing↗
NASA NTRS1993

Cloud radiative forcing effects on observed and simulated global energetics

The research objectives are the following: (1) to examine how cloud-radiation processes generate/destroy available potential energy by altering both meridional and zonal temperature gradient; (2) to investigate how the atmospheric dynamic fields respond to the cloud-altered mass distributions through the energy conversion circuit; and (3) to examine how the improved version of CCM1 simulates observationally obtained cloud-radiative forcing and its associated energetics and circulations. Significant accomplishments in the past year towards obtaining these objectives and the focus of current research and plans for next year are discussed.

Sohn, Byung-Ju↗
NASA NTRS2022

Opportunistic Experiments to Constrain Aerosol Effective Radiative Forcing

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The non-linearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in observed relationships of aerosol radiative forcing. Using correlations to infer causality can be challenging when meteorological variability also drives both aerosol and cloud changes independently. Natural and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations from well defined sources provide ‘opportunistic experiments’ (also known as natural experiments) to investigate ACI in cases where causality may be more confidently inferred. These perturbations cover a wide range of locations and spatio-temporal scales, including point sources such as volcanic eruptions or industrial sources, plumes from biomass burning or forest fires, and tracks from individual ships or shipping corridors.We review the different experimental conditions and conduct a synthesis of the available satellite data sets and field campaigns to place these opportunistic experiments on a common footing, facilitating new insights and a clearer understanding of key uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing. Cloud albedo perturbations are strongly sensitive to background meteorological conditions. Strong liquid water path increases due to aerosol perturbations are largely ruled out by averaging across experiments. Opportunistic experiments have significantly improved process-level understanding of ACI, but it remains unclear how reliably the relationships found can be scaled to the global level, thus demonstrating a need for deeper investigation in order to improve assessments of aerosol radiative forcing and climate change.

Matthew W Christensen↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty in Observational Estimates of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect and Forcing

Aerosols continue to be responsible for the largest uncertainty in determining the anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate. To both reconcile the large range in satellite-based estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE, the direct interaction with solar radiation by all aerosols) and to optimize the design of future observing systems, we build a framework for assessing uncertainty in aerosol DRE and the aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF, the radiative effect of just anthropogenic aerosols, RF_ari). Shortwave aerosol radiative kernels (Jacobians) were derived using the MERRA-2 reanalysis data. These radiative kernels are used to compute a lower-bound on the systematic uncertainty in observational estimates of the aerosol DRE/DRF by making the optimistic assumption that global aerosol observations can be made with the accuracy found in the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer retrievals. The total uncertainty is shown to be dominated by contributions from the aerosol single scattering albedo uncertainty. These uncertainty estimates were compared to a literature survey of mostly satellite-based aerosol DRE/DRF values. Comparisons to previous studies reveal that most have significantly underestimated the aerosol DRE uncertainty. Past estimates of the aerosol DRF uncertainty are smaller (on average) than our optimistic observational estimates, including the aerosol DRF uncertainty given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5).

Tyler James Thorsen↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty in Observational Estimates of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect and Forcing

Aerosols continue to be responsible for the largest uncertainty in determining the anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate. To both reconcile the large range in satellite-based estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE, the direct interaction with solar radiation by all aerosols) and to optimize the design of future observing systems, we build a framework for assessing uncertainty in aerosol DRE and the aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF, the radiative effect of just anthropogenic aerosols, RF_ari). Shortwave aerosol radiative kernels (Jacobians) were derived using the MERRA-2 reanalysis data. These radiative kernels are used to compute a lower-bound on the systematic uncertainty in observational estimates of the aerosol DRE/DRF by making the optimistic assumption that global aerosol observations can be made with the accuracy found in the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer retrievals. The total uncertainty is shown to be dominated by contributions from the aerosol single scattering albedo uncertainty. These uncertainty estimates were compared to a literature survey of mostly satellite-based aerosol DRE/DRF values. Comparisons to previous studies reveal that most have significantly underestimated the aerosol DRE uncertainty. Past estimates of the aerosol DRF uncertainty are smaller (on average) than our optimistic observational estimates, including the aerosol DRF uncertainty given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5).

Tyler James Thorsen↗
NASA NTRS2019

Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models

Quantifying the efficacy of different climate forcings is important for understanding the real‐world climate sensitivity. This study presents a systematic multimodel analysis of different climate driver efficacies using simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Efficacies calculated from instantaneous radiative forcing deviate considerably from unity across forcing agents and models. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a better predictor of global mean near‐surface air temperature (GSAT) change. Efficacies are closest to one when ERF is computed using fixed sea surface temperature experiments and adjusted for land surface temperature changes using radiative kernels. Multimodel mean efficacies based on ERF are close to one for global perturbations of methane, sulfate, black carbon, and insolation, but there is notable intermodel spread. We do not find robust evidence that the geographic location of sulfate aerosol affects its efficacy. GSAT is found to respond more slowly to aerosol forcing than CO2 in the early stages of simulations. Despite these differences, we find that there is no evidence for an efficacy effect on historical GSAT trend estimates based on simulations with an impulse response model, nor on the resulting estimates of climate sensitivity derived from the historical period. However, the considerable intermodel spread in the computed efficacies means that we cannot rule out an efficacy‐induced bias of ±0.4 K in equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling when estimated using the historical GSAT trend.

T B Richardson↗
NASA NTRS2000

Aerosol Climate Effects: Local Radiative Forcing and Column Closure Experiments

In an effort to reduce uncertainties in climate change predictions, experiments are being planned and conducted to measure anthropogenic aerosol properties and effects, including effects on radiative fields. The global average, direct anthropogenic aerosol effect on upwelling shortwave fluxes is estimated to be about +1/2 W/sq m, whereas errors in flux changes measured with airborne and spaceborne radiometers are 2 to 8 W/sq m or larger. This poses the question of whether flux changes expected in field experiments will be large enough to measure accurately. This paper obtains a new expression for the aerosol-induced change in upwelling flux, compares it to two-stream and adding-doubling (AD) results, and uses all three methods to estimate expected flux changes. The new expression accounts for the solar zenith angle dependences of aerosol transmission and reflection, as well as of surface albedo, all of which can have a strong effect in determining flux changes measured in field experiments. Despite its relative simplicity, the new expression gives results similar to previous two-stream results. Relative to AD results, it agrees within a few watts per square meter for the intermediate solar elevation angles where the flux changes peak (roughly 10 to 30 degrees), but it has negative errors for higher Sun and positive errors for lower Sun. All three techniques yield aerosol-induced changes in upwelling flux of +8 to +50 W/sq m for aerosol midvisible optical depths of 0.1 to 0.5. Because such aerosol optical depths occur frequently off the U.S. and European Atlantic coasts in summer, the flux changes they induce should be measurable by airborne, and possibly by spaceborne, radiometers, provided sufficient care is taken in experiment design (including measurements to separate aerosol radiative effects from those of absorbing gases). The expected flux changes are about 15 to 100 times larger than the global average flux change expected for the global average anthropogenic sulfate optical depth of 0.04. Reasons for the larger flux changes include the larger optical depths considered here (factor 2.5 to 12), plus restricting the measurements to cloud-free, daytime conditions over the ocean (factor 5 to 9).

Russell, P. B.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone‐Depleting Substances

We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone‐depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry and Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Projects (AerChemMIP, RFMIP). A large intermodel spread in this globally averaged quantity necessitates an “emergent constraint” approach whereby we link the radiative forcing to ozone declines measured and simulated during 1979–2000, excluding two volcanically perturbed periods. During this period, ozone‐depleting substances were increasing, and several merged satellite‐based climatologies document the ensuing decline of total‐column ozone. Using these analyses, we find an effective radiative forcing of −0.05 to 0.13 W m−2. Our best estimate (0.04 W m−2) is on the edge of the “likely” range given by the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC of 0.03 to 0.33 W m−2 but is in better agreement with two other literature results.

ozone depletion↗
NASA NTRS1993

Effect of radiation forces on disk accretion by weakly magnetic neutron stars

Radiation forces are shown to be more important than general relativistic corrections to Newtonian gravitational forces in determining the motion of particles accreting onto a slowly rotating neutron star if the luminosity of the star is greater than about 1 percent of the Eddington critical luminosity (ECL). This is so even if the radius of the star is less than the radius of the innermost stable orbit. In particular, radiation drag causes matter accreting from a disk to lose angular momentum and spiral inward. At luminosities greater than about 0.2 ECL, a substantial fraction of the accreting matter can transfer most of its angular momentum and gravitational binding energy to the radiation field before reaching the stellar surface. These results have important implications for the X-ray spectra, time variability, and spin evolution of neutron stars with very weak magnetic fields and the prospects for detecting general relativistic effects near such stars.

Miller, M. C.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Buffering of Aerosol-Cloud Adjustments by Coupling Between Radiative Susceptibility and Precipitation Efficiency

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) in warm clouds are the primary source of uncertainty in effective radiative forcing (ERF) during the historical period and, by extension, inferred climate sensitivity. The ERF due to ACI (ERFaci) is composed of the radiative forcing due to changes in cloud microphysics and cloud adjustments to microphysics. Here, we examine the processes that drive ERFaci using a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in CAM6. Observational constraints on the PPE result in substantial constraints in the response of cloud microphysics and macrophysics to anthropogenic aerosol, but only minimal constraint on ERFaci. Examination of cloud and radiation processes in the PPE reveal buffering of ERFaci by the interaction of precipitation efficiency and radiative susceptibility.

perturbed parameter ensemble↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP)

Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate characteristics and have been one of the dominant drivers of decadal trends in Asian and African precipitation. These and other influences on regional climate from changes in aerosol emissions are expected to continue and potentially strengthen in the coming decades. However, a combination of large uncertainties in emission pathways, radiative forcing, and the dynamical response to forcing makes anthropogenic aerosol a key factor in the spread of near-term climate projections, particularly on regional scales, and therefore an important one to constrain. For example, in terms of future emission pathways, the uncertainty in future global aerosol and precursor gas emissions by 2050 is as large as the total increase in emissions since 1850. In terms of aerosol effective radiative forcing, which remains the largest source of uncertainty in future climate change projections, CMIP6 models span a factor of 5, from −0.3 to −1.5 W m−2. Both of these sources of uncertainty are exacerbated on regional scales. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) will deliver experiments designed to quantify the role of regional aerosol emissions changes in near-term projections. This is unlike any prior MIP, where the focus has been on changes in global emissions and/or very idealised aerosol experiments. Perturbing regional emissions makes RAMIP novel from a scientific standpoint and links the intended analyses more directly to mitigation and adaptation policy issues. From a science perspective, there is limited information on how realistic regional aerosol emissions impact local as well as remote climate conditions. Here, RAMIP will enable an evaluation of the full range of potential influences of realistic and regionally varied aerosol emission changes on near-future climate. From the policy perspective, RAMIP addresses the burning question of how local and remote decisions affecting emissions of aerosols influence climate change in any given region. Here, RAMIP will provide the information needed to make direct links between regional climate policies and regional climate change. RAMIP experiments are designed to explore sensitivities to aerosol type and location and provide improved constraints on uncertainties driven by aerosol radiative forcing and the dynamical response to aerosol changes. The core experiments will assess the effects of differences in future global and regional (Africa and the Middle East, East Asia, North America and Europe, and South Asia) aerosol emission trajectories through 2051, while optional experiments will test the nonlinear effects of varying emission locations and aerosol types along this future trajectory. All experiments are based on the shared socioeconomic pathways and are intended to be performed with 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) generation models, initialised from the CMIP6 historical experiments, to facilitate comparisons with existing projections. Requested outputs will enable the analysis of the role of aerosol in near-future changes in, for example, temperature and precipitation means and extremes, storms, and air quality.

anthropogenic aerosol emissions↗
NASA NTRS2020

Fast Responses on Pre-Industrial Climate from Present-Day Aerosols in A CMIP6 Multi-Model Study

In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations: a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014. In response to the pattern of all aerosols effective radiative forcing (ERF), the fast temperature responses are characterized by cooling over the continental areas, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, with the largest cooling over East Asia and India, sulfate being the dominant aerosol surface temperature driver for present-day emissions. In the Arctic there is a warming signal for winter in the ensemble mean of fast temperature responses, but the model-to-model variability is large, and it is presumably linked to aerosol-induced circulation changes. The largest fast precipitation responses are seen in the tropical belt regions, generally characterized by a reduction over continental regions and presumably a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. This is a characteristic and robust feature among most models in this study, associated with weakening of the monsoon systems around the globe (Asia, Africa and America) in response to hemispherically asymmetric cooling from a Northern Hemisphere aerosol perturbation, forcing possibly the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical precipitation to shift away from the cooled hemisphere despite that aerosols' effects on temperature and precipitation are only partly realized in these simulations as the sea surface temperatures are kept fixed. An interesting feature in aerosol-induced circulation changes is a characteristic dipole pattern with intensification of the Icelandic Low and an anticyclonic anomaly over southeastern Europe, inducing warm air advection towards the northern polar latitudes in winter.

Pre-industrial climate↗
NASA NTRS2012

Characterization of Spectral Absorption Properties of Aerosols Using Satellite Observations

The wavelength-dependence of aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) is generally represented in terms of the Angstrom Absorption Exponent (AAE), a parameter that describes the dependence of AAOD with wavelength. The AAE parameter is closely related to aerosol composition. Black carbon (BC) containing aerosols yield AAE values near unity whereas Organic carbon (OC) aerosol particles are associated with values larger than 2. Even larger AAE values have been reported for desert dust aerosol particles. Knowledge of spectral AAOD is necessary for the calculation of direct radiative forcing effect of aerosols and for inferring aerosol composition. We have developed a satellitebased method of determining the spectral AAOD of absorbing aerosols. The technique uses high spectral resolution measurements of upwelling radiation from scenes where absorbing aerosols lie above clouds as indicated by the UV Aerosol Index. For those conditions, the satellite measured reflectance (rho lambda) is approximately given by Beer's law rho lambda = rho (sub 0 lambda) e (exp -mtau (sub abs lambda)) where rho(sub 0 lambda) is the cloud reflectance, m is the geometric slant path and tau (sub abs lambda) is the spectral AAOD. The rho (sub 0 lambda) term is determined by means of radiative transfer calculations using as input the cloud optical depth derived as described in Torres et al. [JAS, 2012] that accounts for the effects of aerosol absorption. In the second step, corrections for molecular and aerosol scattering effects are applied to the cloud reflectance term, and the spectral AAOD is then derived by inverting the equation above. The proposed technique will be discussed in detail and application results will be presented. The technique can be easily applied to hyper-spectral satellite measurements that include UV such as OMI, GOME and SCIAMACHY, or to multi-spectral visible measurements by other sensors provided that the aerosol-above-cloud events are easily identified.

Torres, O.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Retrieval of Aerosol Absorption Properties from Satellite Observations

The Angstrom Absorption Exponent (AAE) is a parameter commonly used to characterize the wavelength-dependence of aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD). It is closely related to aerosol composition. Black carbon (BC) containing aerosols yield AAE values near unity whereas Organic carbon (OC) aerosol particles are associated with values larger than 2. Even larger AAE values have been reported for desert dust aerosol particles. Knowledge of spectral AAOD is necessary for the calculation of direct radiative forcing effect of aerosols and for inferring aerosol composition. We have developed a satellitebased method of determining the spectral AAOD of absorbing aerosols. The technique uses multi-spectral measurements of upwelling radiation from scenes where absorbing aerosols lie above clouds as indicated by the UV Aerosol Index. For those conditions, the satellite measurement can be explained, using an approximations of Beer's Law (BL), as the upwelling reflectance at the cloud top attenuated by the absorption effects of the overlying aerosol layer. The upwelling reflectance at the cloud-top in an aerosol-free atmospheric column is mainly a function of cloud optical depth (COD). In the proposed method of AAE derivation, the first step is determining COD which is retrieved using a previously developed color-ratio based approach. In the second step, corrections for molecular scattering effects are applied to both the observed ad the calculated cloud reflectance terms, and the spectral AAOD is then derived by an inversion of the BL approximation. The proposed technique will be discussed in detail and application results making use of OMI multi-spectral measurements in the UV-Vis. will be presented.

Torres, Omar↗
NASA NTRS2003

Synergic use of TOMS and Aeronet Observations for Characterization of Aerosol Absorption

The role of aerosol absorption on the radiative transfer balance of the earth-atmosphere system is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the analysis of global climate change. Global measurements of aerosol single scattering albedo are, therefore, necessary to properly assess the radiative forcing effect of aerosols. Remote sensing of aerosol absorption is currently carried out using both ground (Aerosol Robotic Network) and space (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) based observations. The satellite technique uses measurements of backscattered near ultraviolet radiation. Carbonaceous aerosols, resulting from the combustion of biomass, are one of the most predominant absorbing aerosol types in the atmosphere. In this presentation, TOMS and AERONET retrievals of single scattering albedo of carbonaceous aerosols, are compared for different environmental conditions: agriculture related biomass burning in South America and Africa and peat fires in Eastern Europe. The AERONET and TOMS derived aerosol absorption information are in good quantitative agreement. The most absorbing smoke is detected over the African Savanna. Aerosol absorption over the Brazilian rain forest is less absorbing. Absorption by aerosol particles resulting from peat fires in Eastern Europe is weaker than the absorption measured in Africa and South America. This analysis shows that the near UV satellite method of aerosol absorption characterization has the sensitivity to distinguish different levels of aerosol absorption. The analysis of the combined AERONET-TOMS observations shows a high degree of synergy between satellite and ground based observations.

Torres, O.↗