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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying the Effect of Economic Development Zones on Electrical Load Growth in Kentucky [Slides]

The Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet has recently undertaken a comprehensive effort to map and catalog potential economic development sites across the state. The purpose of this technical assistance is to quantify the potential impact of developing designated sites on Kentucky's electricity load growth, providing insights at both state and county level considering the next 10 years. This analysis should explicitly incorporate and address key project uncertainties by developing various load growth scenarios that account for development scale, site specificity, and sector variability. The need for a site-specific analysis comes from the understanding that conventional econometric (top-down) load forecasting models cannot sufficiently isolate or predict the discrete load increases resulting from the development of these unique and targeted economic sites.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Packages of Distributed Energy Technologies Demonstrating Demand Flexibility at Community Scale

The combination of increased electric load growth across all sectors, deferred electrical infrastructure investment, and other factors resulting in variable electric power supply, has created technical challenges to maintaining a resilient and reliable grid. Many federal, regional, and local efforts are in play to modernize the electric grid, including advancing building technologies and distributed energy resources (DERs) that are utilizing smarter controls to become responsive to both occupant and grid needs. This report reviews ten pilot projects demonstrating how groups of buildings combined with behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs such as electric vehicle (EV) charging, battery storage, flexible HVAC and domestic hot water systems, and photovoltaic systems can reliably and cost effectively provide grid services. Each of the ten pilot projects aim to deliver both energy efficiency and demand flexibility (DF) while supporting load growth. The ten demonstration teams are piloting flexible DER packages across diverse communities of residential and commercial buildings to address a variety of regional grid needs. The outcomes of these pilot projects will be used to inform future scaling through utility program development. This paper characterizes the ten teams, showcasing the decision-making process used by each group to develop their packages (Section 2), the grid services they plan to deliver (Section 3), the types of DER packages selected for deployment within building sectors (Section 4) and trends between building sector, DER types, and grid services In order to achieve community scale benefits, the pilot projects must utilize aggregated control mechanisms for coordinating buildings and DERs together. Several types of coordinated control architectures have evolved amongst the teams, influenced by use type, existing market conditions, and integration type. Three coordinated controls architectures have been characterized, highlighting their use cases, benefits, challenges, and tradeoffs in their design. These insights can aid utilities, control vendors, and developers in scaling community-level energy systems (Paul, 2024). Ultimately, the technology packages selected by the ten teams will be coordinated to provide power system services, also known as grid services. Insights from these demonstrations will be useful for grid operators, regulators, aggregators and other stakeholders as they look to deploy demand flexible resources as grid services in the future. The grid services that each team is targeting for demonstration are described in Section 3 and Section 4. Methods for evaluating the grid services have been described in the paper Metrics for Evaluating Grid Service Provision from Communities of Grid-interactive and Efficient Buildings and other DER (MacDonald, 2023). To identify technology packages for demonstration, Section 2 shows that project teams used a range of analysis approaches, including building energy modeling, AMI data analysis, cost-benefit frameworks, and utility pilot data. Some teams emphasized technical modeling to quantify grid impacts and demand reduction potential, while others prioritized economic evaluations, stakeholder input, or exploratory pilots to inform deployment decisions. This diversity reflects the need to tailor selection methods to project goals, available data, and organizational context. Section 5 discusses trends between the DER technologies deployed and the grid service provisions from each team. Residential buildings (multifamily and single family) lean towards technologies that enhance energy efficiency (e.g. weatherization upgrades, smart thermostats) and onsite power generation integration (e.g. solar PV). Commercial building demonstrations prioritize technologies that ensure operational reliability (e.g. battery storage) and centralized energy management systems and optimization solutions. Teams that are deploying controllable storage-based technologies are more likely to provide grid services that require a near real-time response. Teams incorporating load shifting technologies like smart thermostats with HEMs are likely to include energy markets participation and customer bill management offerings. Campus demonstrations are adopting diverse sets of DERs to emphasize renewable generation, paired with centralized control. This section also describes technologies that were considered during project planning but ultimately excluded from final deployment. These demonstrations reveal that effective DER package design should be tailored to building type, customer segment, and construction vintage. Multifamily buildings benefit from centralized HVAC upgrades and supervisory controls, while single-family homes are well-suited for individualized technologies like solar, storage, and smart home energy monitors. Commercial and campus settings prioritize EMIS integration and load optimization. New construction enables cost-effective integration of DER-ready infrastructure, whereas retrofits require deployments aligned with owner and tenant value streams. For utility program planners, early coordination with developers and building owners, paired with segmented and modular program offerings, can improve adoption, scalability, and grid impact.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

U.S. Distribution Transformer Demand Phase III - Key Drivers and Managing Demand [Slides]

This presentation demonstrates a significant analysis, on forecasting the demand for distribution transformers. The analysis is conducted for the United States, estimating the initial in-service capacity of these assets, and forecasting demand for these assets through 2050 with several sensitivities conducted. It examines not only demand for these assets, but importantly, how utility planning practices can impact the demand for theses assets in time. Under load growth scenarios, whether utilities practice like-for-like replacement strategies as failures occur, or whether they practice proactive up-sizing, anticipating electric load growth, can have major impacts on future demand. It also examines several other growth factors, such as the increasing demand for step-up transformers, which share many of the same characteristics as distribution transformers, and the demand for specific transformers for large project growth from data centers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating Electric Vehicles into the Grid

Historically, transportation and power systems operated independently, but the rise of electric vehicles is transforming this relationship. In the United States, EV demands are expected to become the largest source of electricity load growth, posing challenges for the grid if not properly managed. This presentation highlights how managed charging strategies and strategic infrastructure deployment can integrate EVs into the power system to enhance grid efficiency and support renewable energy.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Re-evaluating the Thermal-Spectrum Molten-Salt Breeder Reactor Fuel Cycle in a Modern Context

The current need to rapidly and substantially expand clean power production combined with limited capability for domestic uranium enrichment results in a U.S. nuclear power production planning environment similar to that of the first nuclear era. The U.S. thermal-spectrum molten-salt breeder reactor (TS-MSBR) program emerged during the first nuclear era as means to support rapid nuclear power expansion while minimizing demand on fissile resources. The primary reasons that the TS-MSBR program was discontinued in the 1970s were the comparatively large amount of required effort to mature its technology sufficiently for commercial deployment and the access to separated fissile material provided by the design of its integrated fuel cycle. The slowdown in U.S. electrical load growth after 1980 and the abundance of inexpensive fossil fuels inhibited reconsideration of TS-MSBR development for decades. The purpose of this discussion is to re-examine the value and technical challenges of TS-MSBRs with integrated fuel salt chemical processing considering the renewed need for rapid expansion of clean energy production worldwide, the current state of technology, the challenge of actinide wastes, and the continuing need to maintain a high degree of proliferation resistance and to integrate safeguards into the design.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Defining Power Efficient Residential Electric Appliances and Equipment

While the long-established concept of "energy efficiency" has successfully reduced energy consumption and bills in homes, it is no longer sufficient to address the modern challenges of electrical load growth, infrastructure upgrades and associated affordability challenges. We introduce the concept of “power efficiency” for household appliances and equipment, providing a framework to support affordable home modernization and grid management. Energy efficiency is the measure of energy used (kWh) to provide comfort/conveniences, power efficiency is the measure of power used (kW) to provide those same comforts/conveniences. Energy efficiency was needed because energy is a limited resource and expensive. Now power efficiency is needed because power delivery into a building is a limited resource and expensive. We propose a new set of metrics for defining and measuring power efficiency by investigating how current appliance nameplate ratings are established, and assessing the availability and use of existing data.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Digital Assurance for Grid Reliability in the Era of Large Load Growth

The rapid expansion of large electric loads is reshaping the operational and regulatory landscape of the U.S. electric grid. These facilities are reaching new scales of expansion, now exceeding a gigawatt per site, and their highly sensitive, digitally driven behaviors introduce new reliability risks. Recent grid events, including large load losses following routine transmission disturbances, highlight the consequences of limited ride-through capability, inconsistent protection settings, inadequate modeling, and lack of behind-the-meter visibility. Parallels to earlier integration challenges of new grid technologies suggest that the grid’s existing processes, standards, and interconnection frameworks are no longer adequate for emerging large loads. This brief synthesizes lessons from the evolution of inverter-based resource regulation and applies them to large-load integration. It identifies critical gaps in modeling accuracy, interconnection processes, performance standards, and compliance mechanisms. Technical recommendations emphasize advanced monitoring, improved modeling, coordinated communication protocols, modernized substations, and structured behind-the-meter control schemes. Collectively, these measures provide a roadmap to maintain bulk power system reliability while enabling the continued growth of large, electrified digital infrastructure.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Policy and Cost Allocation Considerations for Large Electric Load Interconnections: Emerging Policy Trends in Rate Structures, Interconnection, and Cost Impacts on Other System Users

Load growth in the United States is rapidly increasing: load from data centers alone has tripled over the past decade, and this growth is forecasted to continue accelerating. These and other large electric loads (LELs) promise economic benefits at the state and local level, but their deployment has also led to increasing concerns about grid impacts and potential cost shifts onto other ratepayers. Legislators, regulators, and other stakeholders are increasingly proposing and enacting policies in effort to balance these and other considerations. This white paper reviews state-level legislation, selected utility rate cases, and relevant federal orders in an effort to describe and categorize relevant trends in policies related to LEL cost allocation, interconnection, and deployment. Policy categories identified through this review include tax incentives, rate actions, and requirements related to interconnection, permitting, and reporting. By offering a taxonomy of policies, this white paper aims to offer a resource to policymakers and other stakeholders navigating this transformative moment for the grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Computing for Scale-Up Problems

Adaptive Computing is an application-agnostic outer loop framework to strategically deploy simulations and experiments to guide decision making for scale-up analysis. Resources are allocated over successive batches, which makes the allocation adaptive to some objective such as optimization or model training. The framework enables the characterization and management of uncertainties associated with predictive models of complex systems when scale-up questions lead to significant model extrapolation. A key advancement of this framework is its integration of multi-fidelity surrogate modeling, uncertainty management, and automated orchestration of various computing and experimentation resources into a single integrated software package. This enables efficient multi-fidelity modeling across multiple computing resources by incorporating real-world constraints such as relative queue times and throughput on individual machines into the multi-fidelity sampling decision. We discuss applications of this framework to problems in the renewable energy space, including biofuels production, material synthesis, perovskite crystal growth, and building electrical loads.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States

This report is one in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications. The EFS is a multiyear research project to explore potential widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. Electrification is defined as the substitution of electricity for direct combustion of non-electricity-based fuels used to provide similar services. The EFS is specifically designed to examine electric technology advancement and adoption for end uses in the major economic sectors of the United States, electricity consumption growth and load profiles, future power system infrastructure development and operations, and economic and environmental implications of electrification. Because of the expansive scope and the multiyear duration of the study, research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of reports, with each report being released on its own time frame.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Grid Planning for Building Electrification: A Report by the Energy Systems Integration Group’s Grid Planning for Building Electrification Task Force

The increased electrification of buildings across the United States is being driven by technical advancements, cost reductions for some building technologies, consumer preferences, and policy goals for decarbonization. However, the effects of this load growth on the electric distribution system are often only a minor consideration in policymaking and long-term planning studies. The long lead time and useful life of power system equipment means that the decisions taken today are expected to support our society well into the 2060s and beyond. Distribution planning stakeholders can take steps today to establish a grid foundation that captures the new challenges presented by building electrification. This report focuses on building electrification for the residential and commercial sectors, focusing most heavily on space heating, as this end use stands to most strongly impact demand.1 Across all end uses, building electrification could require somewhere between 10% and 70% more electricity generation capacity than exists today depending on technology adoption and energy efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unlocking load growth at the grid edge: Practices for managing, recovering, and allocating distribution system investments

Utilities and utility regulators are preparing to make significant investments in the electricity distribution system driven by expected load growth in coming years and decades. Regulators will be tasked with vetting investment proposals and implementing cost recovery and allocation mechanisms. In particular, state regulators are anticipating the need to make proactive distribution system investments, building the capability to serve new load in advance of demand. This report focuses on load growth from homes and businesses that adopt electric vehicles and heat pump heating technologies. Through a review of legislation and regulatory dockets in a subset of states, we provide insights into emerging utility and regulatory practices to recover and allocate costs of electrification-driven distribution system investments necessary to accommodate these technologies. Our review focused on utility electrification programs, line extension policies, and proactive investments. Our report is largely descriptive, offering detailed information about approaches different state commissions and utilities have implemented to inform future decision-making.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1976

Electric load management and energy conservation

Electric load management and energy conservation relate heavily to the major problems facing power industry at present. The three basic modes of energy conservation are identified as demand reduction, increased efficiency and substitution for scarce fuels. Direct and indirect load management objectives are to reduce peak loads and have future growth in electricity requirements in such a manner to cause more of it to fall off the system's peak. In this paper, an overview of proposed and implemented load management options is presented. Research opportunities exist for the evaluation of socio-economic impacts of energy conservation and load management schemes specially on the electric power industry itself.

Kheir, N. A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Proactive Regulatory Approaches to Electrification and Load Growth: Workshop Report

On July 10 and 11, 2024, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and RMI led a workshop in Aurora, Colorado, to explore novel and proactive approaches to electrification and load growth while minimizing risks and costs to customers. Over the next decade, a unique opportunity exists to invest strategically in the electricity system to enable electrification across the transportation, industrial, and building sectors and respond to data and technology-based load growth. However, current utility and regulatory planning practices are insufficient to identify and enable the right investments, and work must be done to reduce the risk and decisional uncertainty faced by utility regulatory commissions and utilities. Ensuring timely electrification investments may require new approaches to address risk, uncertainty, prudence, and cost recovery. Understanding the decision-making process and information needs of utilities and regulators is critical. New policies (or application of policies), financial tools, systems analysis, regulatory mechanisms, and enhanced process transparency may be required. The workshop's goal was to identify proactive regulatory approaches for electrification and load growth that minimize costs and risks to customers. Our intention was that the conversations and the resulting solutions and takeaways would be specific and tactical rather than general and theoretical and that together we would create actionable next steps for key actors in the system, including utilities, regulators, thought leaders, researchers, and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This report is intended to provide workshop attendees with a record and summary of the discussion and proposals raised at the workshop and to provide interested entities who did not attend, such as other regulators, policymakers, utilities, and U.S. DOE offices, with an understanding of what was discussed and with ideas to explore in their organizations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of Intelligent Load Control to Manage Building Loads to Support Rapid Growth of Distributed Renewable Generation

Electricity utilities are faced with the mounting challenge of providing a stable supply of power to meet the growing demand while also integrating rapid growth in distributed variable renewable generation. Traditional means of balancing short- and long-term supply and demand imbalance will be expensive. Alternative approaches of using flexible loads in buildings are needed to mitigate the imbalance at a lower cost. This paper shows how the intelligent load control (ILC) process can be used to manage loads in buildings by dynamically prioritizing loads for curtailment using both quantitative and qualitative criteria. The ILC process can be deployed on low-cost computing platforms without the need for any additional sensing. ILC was first validated in a simulation environment to provide two grid service use cases: (1) managing monthly peak electricity demand and (2) managing buildings’ electricity consumption during a capacity bidding event. After being successfully tested in a simulation environment, ILC was deployed on real buildings to manage electricity consumption to provide two different use cases under different outdoor operating conditions. Both the simulation tests and the real building experiments were deployed using VOLTTRON™, a distributed sensing and control platform. The results from the tests and experiments showed that ILC was able to manage the controllable loads (heat pumps) in the building to maintain the electricity consumption at the desired level without a significant impact on occupant comfort. Overall, the results demonstrate that the ILC allows coordination of the controllable loads and provides a more intelligent means of load management than the traditional duty-cycling approach.

Kim, Woohyun↗
DOE OSTI2025

EV Charging Infrastructure Energization: An Overview of Approaches for Simplifying Processes and Accelerating Timelines to Processing EV Charging Load Service Requests

The United States has seen significant growth in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, leading to increased demand for EV charging infrastructure and electricity. Growth in electricity demand from EV charging, coupled with growth in other sectors like data centers and electrification of other sectors, is impacting electricity infrastructure and load service request processes after two decades of relatively flat electricity demand. While most electric vehicle charging occurs at home, enroute and depot charging for medium and heavy-duty vehicles, both using high-powered EV charging, are critical to meet electric vehicle operational needs. Over the past decade, EV charging infrastructure site developers, site hosts, and electric distribution utilities have navigated the process to integrate chargers onto the electric grid. Site developers and site hosts have expressed distress that the integration process for high-powered EV charging projects does not meet the needs of the EV market for timeliness or cost. High-powered charging stations typically require a load service request or an agreement with the local utility to connect to the grid. The process of energizing a new high-powered charging site can be complex and time consuming, often taking up to 2 years. This timeline is the result of current utility energization processes having been designed for construction projects that take longer to build (i.e., buildings). The specific challenges stem from various factors, including compartmentalization in application processes, the integration of EV charging process approvals with other distributed energy resources (DERs), and the need to ensure grid reliability. The energization process needs to evolve to meet the growing demand for high-powered EV charging. This white paper compiles information gathered through various conversations with key stakeholders, including utilities, utility regulators, EV charging operators, site developers, and authorities having jurisdiction (AHJ) as well as through an extensive literature review. This document identifies the challenges and provides potential solutions to streamline the process of connecting EV charging infrastructure to the power grid in the United States, serving as a starting point for future conversations around these solutions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

IM3 + EPRI Data Center Load Projections

This dataset contains scenarios of hourly total electricity demand with and without projected loads from data centers over the period 2022-2040. The root projections without data center demands are identical to those documented in Burleyson et al. 2024. In short, those projections encompass hourly electricity demands for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) in the United States across a range of eight of weather and socioeconomic scenarios. Refer to the root dataset and accompanying publication, Burleyson et al. 2025, for information about how those projections were generated. For this derivative dataset we used the base loads from the following scenarios: rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 The root load projections did not reflect the drastic expansion of data centers that has occurred in the last several years to support artificial intelligence and cloud computing. To reflect growth in data center demand, a second set of load projections were created in which we layered in additional data center load projections based on the data center load growth scenarios described in a 2024 report by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI): "Powering Intelligence: Analyzing Artificial Intelligence and Data Center Energy Consumption". The EPRI projections from the report are included in this dataset (EPRI_2024_Projections.xlsx). That report contained annual state-level data center load projections for four year-over-year growth rates for data center demands: Low (3.71% annual growth) Moderate (5% annual growth) High (10% annual growth) Higher (15% annual growth) To homogenize the load projections with and without data centers we had to get them to a common scale. The first step was to take the EPRI annual state-level data center energy consumption values and convert them to 8760-hr loads for each year. We did that by assuming a flat (e.g., not weather- or time-sensitive) load profile and distributing the data center loads in each state evenly across all hours in a year. From there the loads were downscaled from the state-level to the county-level using 2019 county-level populations as weights. Finally, the county-level hourly data center loads were summed to the BA-level using the county-to-BA mapping underpinning the root load projections. The net result is 16 (4 weather and socioeconomic scenarios crossed with 4 data center load growth scenarios) unique load projections for the period 2022-2040. The file format follows that of the root dataset with a single additional column "Scaled_TELL_BA_Load_with_DC_MWh" that contains the hourly loads with the added data center loads for a given BA-year-scenario combination. Please refer to the readme file in the root dataset for more information on the file format.

Burleyson, Casey [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗