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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Scenario-based analysis of electric vehicle adoption in the United States: Technology, infrastructure, and electricity pricing

This work investigates the impact of battery technology advancement, charging infrastructure development, and time-of-use (TOU) electricity pricing on vehicle adoption by 6 powertrain types in the United States through 2050. Using the Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) model, we simulate 15 scenarios, examining individual cost factors and their combinations. We assess outcomes through market share, consumer surplus, and energy consumption. Results show that battery cost reductions are the strongest driver of EV adoption, increasing 2050 battery electric vehicle (BEV) share by 27 percentage points over baseline, raising annual consumer surplus by $511 per household, and reducing cumulative energy consumption by 16,610 trillion Btu. These gains are two to five times larger than those from other individual factors. Reducing home charging installation costs produces moderate impact, while TOU pricing alone yields only small gains, raising 2050 BEV market share by 1–2 percentage points. However, when cost factor improvements are combined, their effects are amplified beyond simple additivity. Pairing modest battery cost reductions with charging installation cost reductions and TOU pricing results in the largest 2050 BEV sales combined impact. The analysis demonstrates that moderate progress targeting multiple cost barriers may be more impactful than focusing on any single barrier.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The State of Electric Vehicle Adoption in Colorado for Multifamily versus Single-Family Dwellings: A Methodology for Quantifying Deviation from Parity

Given that electric vehicle adoption is well underway, the spatial distribution of electric vehicle owners by housing type—single-family or multifamily— shows whether parity (equal adoption rates) is being achieved or to what extent adoption by housing type is over or undersaturated (i.e., over- or under-adoption). We use a proprietary dataset of vehicle registrations with modeled housing type to analyze saturation ratios in Colorado in 2022. We found significant single-family oversaturation and multifamily undersaturation in 14% and 23% of ZIP codes, respectively, suggesting Colorado can still mitigate disparities in electric vehicle adoption by housing type through accessible vehicles and charging.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 1 Charging

This report is part of a series describing different ResStock (TM) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 1 Charging" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging

This report is part of a series describing different ResStock (TM) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Efficient Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging

This report is part of a series describing different ResStock (TM) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Efficient Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging and Demand Flexibility

This report is part of a series describing different ResStock measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging and Demand Flexibility" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Efficient Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging and Demand Flexibility

This report is part of a series describing different ResStock measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Efficient Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging and Demand Flexibility" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Driving the grid forward: How electric vehicle adoption shapes power system infrastructure and emissions

We model the effect of plug-in electric vehicle (EV) adoption on U.S. power system generator capacity investment, operations, and emissions through 2050 by estimating power systems outcomes under a range of EV adoption trajectory scenarios. Our EV adoption scenarios are informed by 1) an Energy Information Administration scenario with no policy intervention, 2) EV growth expected under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), 3) a Biden Administration 50% EV sales target by 2030, 4) the Environmental Protection Agency’s projections under vehicle emissions standards, and 5) the International Energy Agency’s roadmap to Net Zero by 2050. We find across these scenarios that increasing EV adoption induces investment in new wind, solar, storage, and natural gas capacity, affecting power generation mix and emissions. The net effect of increasing EV adoption beyond our IRA base case is to increase power sector emissions by about 5 mtCO 2 eq per EV-year in 2026 (comparable to displaced gasoline vehicle combustion emissions), but this effect rapidly drops to annual levels below 1 mtCO 2 eq per EV-year by 2032 and continues below this level through 2050. Consequential effects of EV adoption vary regionally, with most regions primarily increasing wind or solar capacity and some regions primarily increasing natural gas capacity, even in 2050. Our national emissions estimates per EV-year are relatively robust to the level of EV adoption beyond our baseline and to variation in assumptions about power systems, EV behavior, and policy.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the Impacts of Autonomous Electric Vehicles Adoption on Vehicle Miles Traveled and CO2 Emissions

Autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs) can potentially revolutionize the transportation landscape, offering a safer, contact-free, easily accessible, and more eco-friendly mode of travel. Prior to the market uptake of AEVs, it is critical to understand the consumer segments that are most likely to adopt these vehicles. Beyond market adoption, it is also important to quantify the impact of AEVs on broader transportation systems and the environment, such as impacts on the annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this pilot study, using survey data, a statistical model correlating AEV adoption intention and socioeconomic and built environment attributes was estimated, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to understand the importance of factors impacting AEV adoption. We found that the market segments range from early adopters who are wealthy, technologically savvy, and relatively young to non-adopters who are more cautious to new technologies. This is followed by a synthetic population microsimulation of market penetration for the San Francisco Bay Area. With five household vehicle replacement scenarios, we assessed the annual VMT and tailpipe carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions change associated with vehicle replacement. It is found that adopting AEVs can potentially reduce more than 5 megatons of CO2 yearly, which is approximately 30% of the total CO2 emitted by internal combustion engine (ICE) cars in the region.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) Study for Vernon County, Wisconsin [Slides]

Viroqua is a town in Wisconsin with a population of approximately 4,500. The Vernon County Energy district is a local nonprofit in Viroqua that provides energy education, individualized energy consulting and coaching to residents and businesses. They have a very good relationship with our county government and wish to support their efforts. The Vernon County government is currently working on a comprehensive plan and would like to include planning for electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure in the plan. They are seeking guidance on logical phases for implementation and identifying the best locations for Level 2 and Level 3 EV chargers. NREL provided technical input on strategic planning for electric vehicle (EV) adoption and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) expansion in Vernon County through the Clean Energy to Communities (C2C) Expert Match technical assistance program. NREL provided strategic planning support for EV expansion planning in Vernon County and siting considerations for locating EVSE.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Software/Hardware Framework for Efficient and Safe Emergency Response in Post-Crash Scenarios of Battery Electric Vehicles

The adoption rate of battery electric vehicles (EVs) is rapidly increasing. Electric vehicles differ significantly from conventional internal combustion engine vehicles and vary widely across different manufacturers. Emergency responders (ERs) and recovery personnel may have less experience with EVs and lack timely access to critical information such as the extent of the stranded energy present, high-voltage safety hazards, and post-crash handling procedures in a user-friendly manner. This paper presents a software/hardware interactive tool named Electric Vehicle Information for Incident Response Solutions (EVIRS) to aid in the quick access to emergency response and recovery information. The current prototype of EVIRS identifies EVs using the VIN or Make, Model, and Year, and offers several useful features for ERs and recovery personnel. These features include integration and easy access to emergency response procedures tailored to an identified EV, vehicle structural schematics, the quick identification of battery pack specifications, and more. For EVs that are not severely damaged, EVIRS can perform calculations to estimate stranded energy in the EV’s battery and discharge time for various power loads using either EV dashboard information or operational data accessed through the CAN interface. Knowledge of this information may be helpful in the post-crash handling, management, and storage of an EV. The functionality and accuracy of EVIRS were demonstrated through laboratory tests using a 2021 Ford Mach-E and associated data acquisition system. The results indicated that when the remaining driving range was used as an input, EVIRS was able to estimate the pack voltage with an error of less than 3 V. Conversely, when pack voltage was used as an input, the estimated state of charge (SOC) error was less than 5% within the range of 30–90% SOC. Additionally, other features, such as retrieving emergency response guides for identified EVs and accessing lessons learned from archived incidents, have been successfully demonstrated through EVIRS for quick access. EVIRS can be a valuable tool for emergency responders and recovery personnel, both in action and during offline training, by providing crucial information related to assessing EV/battery safety risks, appropriate handling, de-energizing, transport, and storage in an integrated and user-friendly manner.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Natural Language Processing to Inform Agent-Based Modeling: With Application to Modeling Adoption of Medium-Duty Electric Vehicles

Agent-based socio-technical modeling of medium- and heavy-duty (MDHD) electric vehicle (EV) adoption has the potential to provide analysis, prediction, and gui. This paper describes new applications of text analysis developed through machine learning (ML) to build and understand relevant topics and their saliency in the published discourse on adoption of MDHD EVs. This work contributes to the state of the art in topic mining models by defining a new metric of topic ranking (START) that quantifies the importance of predefined topics within the corpus using weighted results for predefined topics from two topic modeling approaches: Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and BERTopic. The START metric is then demonstrated in practice to model how academia and industry view the EV adoption process based on the respective texts published by these groups. Results show that academic literature places more emphasis on categories of interests such as norms/attitudes and adopter knowledge, while trade journals tend to emphasize long-term cost more than academia. The two bodies of literature agree on the importance of policy and incentives in MDHD EV adoption. Together these results illustrate the potential to use ML-based text analysis to populate the characteristics of agent-based socio-technical models.

Electric vehicle adoption, fleet electrification, ↗
DOE OSTI2026

EVI-X Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Toolbox

The Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Toolbox offers resources for estimating charging infrastructure needs and associated electrical demands based on user-defined electric vehicle adoption scenarios. For more information and additional resources, see the full EVI-X modeling suite of electric vehicle charging infrastructure analysis tools.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Operational optimization for multi-functional charging station with electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles

The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs), combined with global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, has accelerated the development of EV charging and hydrogen refueling stations. In response to this demand, this paper introduces the concept of Multi-Functional Charging Station (MFCS) that integrates power generation, EV charging, battery swapping, and hydrogen refueling. A comprehensive operational model is developed for the MFCS that couples electricity and hydrogen conversion and storage technologies to enhance infrastructure utilization and improve overall system efficiency. The model also considers multiple revenue streams, including participation in energy and ancillary markets. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed model and evaluate its performance, a series of numerical experiments are conducted with different charger numbers, different electricity purchase limits, and different charger allocations. Numerical results demonstrate that shared charger configurations can lead to 8.11 % improvement in operational profit by improving resource utilization and reducing the number of depleted batteries at the end of operations compared to allocated charger setups. By varying the number of chargers, sensitivity analysis identifies diminishing marginal returns beyond about 45 chargers, suggesting it as an optimal sizing point under current settings. The integration of electricity and hydrogen conversion is also explored under scenarios with limited external electricity purchases. In conclusion, these findings indicate that optimizing charger allocation and energy management can significantly enhance station productivity and profitability, ultimately supporting the broader adoption of electrified and hydrogen-based transportation solutions.

Charging station↗
DOE OSTI2025

EV Stock and Load Forecasting for HECO [Slides]

This presentation covers the work completed for the HECO Forecasting Department for the Electric Vehicle Stock and Load Forecast for Integrated Grid Planning project. This project uses a suite of detailed analytical tools developed by the National Laboratory of the Rockies, including TEMPO and EVI-Pro, to develop future scenarios to 2050 of county-level electric vehicle adoption and associated annual hourly charging load profiles for the state of Hawaii.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗