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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Charging infrastructure access and operation to reduce the grid impacts of deep electric vehicle adoption

Electric vehicles will contribute to emissions reductions in the United States, but their charging may challenge electricity grid operations. We present a data-driven, realistic model of charging demand that captures the diverse charging behaviours of future adopters in the US Western Interconnection. We study charging control and infrastructure build-out as critical factors shaping charging load and evaluate grid impact under rapid electric vehicle adoption with a detailed economic dispatch model of 2035 generation. We find that peak net electricity demand increases by up to 25% with forecast adoption and by 50% in a stress test with full electrification. Locally optimized controls and high home charging can strain the grid. Shifting instead to uncontrolled, daytime charging can reduce storage requirements, excess non-fossil fuel generation, ramping and emissions. Our results urge policymakers to reflect generation-level impacts in utility rates and deploy charging infrastructure that promotes a shift from home to daytime charging.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increasing Electric Vehicle Adoption Among Disadvantaged Populations: A Case Study in LA

In the shift towards 100% carbon-free energy, ensuring equitable access to clean energy benefits is crucial. The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), particularly in the personal light-duty vehicle segment, has gained traction, driven by various incentives at the federal, state, and local levels. However, disadvantaged populations face unique challenges in embracing EVs. This paper, using Los Angeles as a case study, explores EV adoption patterns among disadvantaged population groups in both a business-as-usual scenario and an equity scenario. Modeling reveals that by 2035, over half of EV owners will be from low- to middle income backgrounds with limited access to home charging. Strategies such as increasing incentives for used EV purchase from $2500 to $4000, targeted for disadvantaged communities, can boost EV adoption among low-middle income groups by 2%, while providing a $300 annual voucher to households using public charging can further facilitate equitable EV adoption.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electric Vehicle Managed Charging: Forward-Looking Estimates of Bulk Power System Value

When and where electric vehicle charging occurs has significant implications for power systems supporting widespread electric vehicle deployment with high shares of wind and solar generation. Numerous studies have estimated the value of scheduling or otherwise managing electric vehicle charging in such power systems. This study improves on those earlier works by leveraging detailed simulation models for electric vehicle adoption, electric vehicle use, electric vehicle charging, and bulk power system operations; and linking them with methods for describing charging flexibility at both the individual vehicle and aggregate levels. This study closely analyzes electric vehicle managed charging (EVMC) performance along the dimensions of flexibility type (within-charging session or within-week scheduling), dispatch mechanism (direct load control or one of several price-based mechanisms), and participation rate, under the assumptions of ubiquitous chargers and all trips completed on time. The study is located in a passenger light-duty vehicle adoption scenario with 100% electric vehicle sales by 2035, and in an envisioned 2038 New England power system for which within-region generation is 84% clean.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Distribution System Planning for Growth in Residential Electric Vehicle Adoption

Anticipated growth in Electric Vehicles (EV) adoption could stress distribution system circuits beyond their original design limits. Uncertainties related to when households will begin buying EVs in large numbers challenges existing distribution system planning approaches and complicates efforts to assess grid impacts. Anticipated location, timing, and demand for EV charging is critical information for distribution system planners as it guides investment strategies for infrastructure upgrades to ensure continued reliability. This research makes two significant contributions: an EV adoption model that uses socioeconomic data to forecast location and year-specific adoption patterns through a bottoms-up approach, and an EV hosting capacity assessment methodology that offers improvements to current utility planning and asset management practices for infrastructure investments. Both contributions are applied to a Southern California Edison feeder in 7 adoption years from 2025 to 2050, with the results indicating that they are likely valuable additions to distribution systems planning capabilities.

Sridhar, Siddharth↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scenario-based analysis of electric vehicle adoption in the United States: Technology, infrastructure, and electricity pricing

This work investigates the impact of battery technology advancement, charging infrastructure development, and time-of-use (TOU) electricity pricing on vehicle adoption by 6 powertrain types in the United States through 2050. Using the Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) model, we simulate 15 scenarios, examining individual cost factors and their combinations. We assess outcomes through market share, consumer surplus, and energy consumption. Results show that battery cost reductions are the strongest driver of EV adoption, increasing 2050 battery electric vehicle (BEV) share by 27 percentage points over baseline, raising annual consumer surplus by $511 per household, and reducing cumulative energy consumption by 16,610 trillion Btu. These gains are two to five times larger than those from other individual factors. Reducing home charging installation costs produces moderate impact, while TOU pricing alone yields only small gains, raising 2050 BEV market share by 1–2 percentage points. However, when cost factor improvements are combined, their effects are amplified beyond simple additivity. Pairing modest battery cost reductions with charging installation cost reductions and TOU pricing results in the largest 2050 BEV sales combined impact. The analysis demonstrates that moderate progress targeting multiple cost barriers may be more impactful than focusing on any single barrier.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Electric Vehicle Adoption in Illinois

Over 1.3 million plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) have been sold in the United States since 2010 when the first Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf vehicles came on the market. Currently, electric vehicles account for about 2% of monthly light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales. More than 40 different electric vehicle models are actively being marketed, and most of these are LDVs. Over the last few years, automakers have brought more models, with varying mileage ranges, to the market, including medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks and buses. Government agencies at the federal, regional, and state levels, as well as utilities across the United States, have provided financial and non-financial incentives to promote electric vehicle adoption and charging infrastructure deployment. Argonne National Laboratory, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, has developed tools and collected data to quantify the energy, economic, and environmental benefits of electric vehicles. This project has three objectives. First, we summarize the policies and other actions of the federal government, various states/regions, and utilities to promote PEV adoption, and evaluate their relative effectiveness based on a review of the literature. Second, we identify possible PEV adoption paths or scenarios that would result in PEVs making up 15% of all on-road vehicles in Illinois, and we quantify the resulting impacts on petroleum consumption and electricity demand. We also summarize the possible reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) and criteria pollutant emissions due to PEV adoption. The PEV scenarios include private and public adoption of electric cars, light trucks (e.g., sports utility vehicles [SUVs], vans, pickups), medium-duty vehicles (MDVs), and heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs). Third, we estimate hourly charging loads of light-duty PEVs in 2030 associated with these scenarios, incorporating assumptions about vehicle electric range, efficiency, and travel behavior.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Electric Vehicle Charging Station Reliability, Resilience, and Location on Electric Vehicle Adoption

While the majority of electric vehicle (EV) charging events in the United States occur at home, issues with public charging stations are consistently found to be a top reason that potential EV buyers do not purchase an EV, demonstrating that both EVSE reliability and availability impacts EV adoption. This report explores multiple parameters that impact EVSE reliability and deployment, which in turn impact EV sales. These include extreme weather, codes and standards, region (urban vs. rural), and grid network type. Grid reliability was not found to impact EV adoption. The relationships between EV station reliability, station resilience, grid resilience, and EV adoption are largely outside the scope of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT) and other vehicle adoption models, so the methodology of this report is varied. Section 2 sets the baseline for infrastructure reliability, user satisfaction, and maintenance practices. Section 3 explores the ways that electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) reliability impacts the relationship between EVSE and EV adoption. Section 4 shows how geographical categories such as urban, rural, large grid, off-grid, or microgrid can be helpful in EVSE deployment strategies, as well as how the relationship between EVSE and EV adoption differs among these categories. Section 5 investigates the impacts of grid reliability and infrastructure resilience on EV adoption. Finally, Section 6 reverses the perspective to examine the impact that EVs and EVSE have on grid resilience and reliability. As recent funding initiatives result in an expansion of public chargers across the United States, as well as an increase in the uptime of existing chargers, EV adoption will likely grow.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The State of Electric Vehicle Adoption in Colorado for Multifamily versus Single-Family Dwellings: A Methodology for Quantifying Deviation from Parity

Given that electric vehicle adoption is well underway, the spatial distribution of electric vehicle owners by housing type—single-family or multifamily— shows whether parity (equal adoption rates) is being achieved or to what extent adoption by housing type is over or undersaturated (i.e., over- or under-adoption). We use a proprietary dataset of vehicle registrations with modeled housing type to analyze saturation ratios in Colorado in 2022. We found significant single-family oversaturation and multifamily undersaturation in 14% and 23% of ZIP codes, respectively, suggesting Colorado can still mitigate disparities in electric vehicle adoption by housing type through accessible vehicles and charging.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

PR100: Estimated Medium- and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Adoption and Load Estimation in Puerto Rico through 2050

The 2-year Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100% Renewable Energy Study analyzed stakeholder-driven pathways to Puerto Rico’s clean energy future. Outputs relating to electricity demand modeling were partially informed by estimates of electric vehicle adoption across all classes of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs), and the ensuing charging loads. To create these estimates, the team developed a transportation model for MHDVs in Puerto Rico to estimate the amount and geospatial distribution of energy used. Charging schedules for the different end uses of MHDVs were then used to construct electric load shapes assuming a portion of those vehicles would be replaced by battery electric counterparts. Study results showed that, by 2050, electric vehicles may constitute roughly 50% of the MHDV population in Puerto Rico. The resulting electrical demand curve attributable to MHDV charging showed that, for solar energy-based electrical systems with limited energy storage, this demand may create challenges unless appropriately managed either on the demand or supply side.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 1 Charging

This report is part of a series describing different ResStock (TM) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 1 Charging" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging

This report is part of a series describing different ResStock (TM) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Efficient Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging

This report is part of a series describing different ResStock (TM) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Efficient Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging and Demand Flexibility

This report is part of a series describing different ResStock measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging and Demand Flexibility" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Efficient Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging and Demand Flexibility

This report is part of a series describing different ResStock measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Efficient Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging and Demand Flexibility" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Driving the grid forward: How electric vehicle adoption shapes power system infrastructure and emissions

We model the effect of plug-in electric vehicle (EV) adoption on U.S. power system generator capacity investment, operations, and emissions through 2050 by estimating power systems outcomes under a range of EV adoption trajectory scenarios. Our EV adoption scenarios are informed by 1) an Energy Information Administration scenario with no policy intervention, 2) EV growth expected under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), 3) a Biden Administration 50% EV sales target by 2030, 4) the Environmental Protection Agency’s projections under vehicle emissions standards, and 5) the International Energy Agency’s roadmap to Net Zero by 2050. We find across these scenarios that increasing EV adoption induces investment in new wind, solar, storage, and natural gas capacity, affecting power generation mix and emissions. The net effect of increasing EV adoption beyond our IRA base case is to increase power sector emissions by about 5 mtCO 2 eq per EV-year in 2026 (comparable to displaced gasoline vehicle combustion emissions), but this effect rapidly drops to annual levels below 1 mtCO 2 eq per EV-year by 2032 and continues below this level through 2050. Consequential effects of EV adoption vary regionally, with most regions primarily increasing wind or solar capacity and some regions primarily increasing natural gas capacity, even in 2050. Our national emissions estimates per EV-year are relatively robust to the level of EV adoption beyond our baseline and to variation in assumptions about power systems, EV behavior, and policy.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increasing Electric Vehicle Adoption Among Disadvantaged Populations: A Case Study in Los Angeles

In striving for 100% carbon-free energy by 2035, ensuring equitable access and benefits across all populations is crucial. The shift toward clean energy and sustainable transport involves numerous challenges, requiring collective efforts from various stakeholders to develop inclusive strategies and policies. This includes community engagement, equitable funding for technology, and expansion of programs to foster an equitable energy transition. Additionally, while cities have initiated incentive programs to promote electric vehicle (EV) adoption, the effectiveness of these programs in ensuring affordable EV ownership for disadvantaged communities is yet to be fully understood. This paper, using Los Angeles as a case study, highlights the importance of evaluating and refining these incentive programs to enhance EV accessibility for marginalized groups.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the Impacts of Autonomous Electric Vehicles Adoption on Vehicle Miles Traveled and CO2 Emissions

Autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs) can potentially revolutionize the transportation landscape, offering a safer, contact-free, easily accessible, and more eco-friendly mode of travel. Prior to the market uptake of AEVs, it is critical to understand the consumer segments that are most likely to adopt these vehicles. Beyond market adoption, it is also important to quantify the impact of AEVs on broader transportation systems and the environment, such as impacts on the annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this pilot study, using survey data, a statistical model correlating AEV adoption intention and socioeconomic and built environment attributes was estimated, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to understand the importance of factors impacting AEV adoption. We found that the market segments range from early adopters who are wealthy, technologically savvy, and relatively young to non-adopters who are more cautious to new technologies. This is followed by a synthetic population microsimulation of market penetration for the San Francisco Bay Area. With five household vehicle replacement scenarios, we assessed the annual VMT and tailpipe carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions change associated with vehicle replacement. It is found that adopting AEVs can potentially reduce more than 5 megatons of CO2 yearly, which is approximately 30% of the total CO2 emitted by internal combustion engine (ICE) cars in the region.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗