Neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables: Forecasting electricity prices with NBEATSx
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Kin G. Olivares↗
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Phosphoric acid fuel cell platinum use study
The U.S. Department of Energy is promoting the private development of phosphoric acid fuel cell (PAFC) power plants for terrestrial applications. Current PAFC technology utilizes platinum as catalysts in the power electrodes. The possible repercussions that the platinum demand of PAFC power plant commercialization will have on the worldwide supply and price of platinum from the outset of commercialization to the year 2000 are investigated. The platinum demand of PAFC commercialization is estimated by developing forecasts of platinum use per unit of generating capacity and penetration of PAFC power plants into the electric generation market. The ability of the platinum supply market to meet future demands is gauged by assessing the size of platinum reserves and the capability of platinum producers to extract, refine and market sufficient quantities of these reserves. The size and timing of platinum price shifts induced by the added demand of PAFC commercialization are investigated by several analytical methods. Estimates of these price shifts are then used to calculate the subsequent effects on PAFC power plant capital costs.
Lundblad, H. L.↗
A simple lightning parameterization for calculating global lightning distributions
A simple parameterization has been developed to simulate global lightning distributions. Convective cloud top height is used as the variable in the parameterization, with different formulations for continental and marine thunderstorms. The parameterization has been validated using two lightning data sets: one global and one regional. In both cases the simulated lightning distributions and frequencies are in very good agreement with the observed lightning data. This parameterization could be used for global studies of lightning climatology; the earth's electric circuit; in general circulation models for modeling global lightning activity, atmospheric NO(x) concentrations, and perhaps forest fire distributions for both the present and future climate; and, possibly, even as a short-term forecasting aid.
Price, Colin↗
Effects of expiration of the Federal energy tax credit on the National Photovoltaics Program
Projected 1986 sales are significantly reduced as a direct result of system price increases following from expiration of the Federal energy tax credits. There would be greatly reduced emphasis on domestic electric utility applications. Indirect effects arising from unrealized economies of scale and reduced private investment in PV research and development (R&D) and in production facilities could have a very large cumulative adverse impact on the U.S. PV industry. The industry forecasts as much as fourfold reduction in 1990 sales if tax credits expire, compared with what sales would be with the credits. Because the National Photovoltaics Program is explicitly structured as a government partnership, large changes in the motivation or funding of either partner can affect Program success profoundly. Reduced industry participation implies that such industry tasks as industrialization and new product development would slow or halt. Those research areas receiving heavy R&D support from private PV manufacturers would be adversely affected.
Smith, J. L.↗