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At least 19 records

Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs

Wind energy supply has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, the long-term contribution of wind to future energy supply, and the degree to which policy support is necessary to motivate higher levels of deployment, depends - in part - on the future costs of both onshore and offshore wind. In this paper, we summarize the results of an expert elicitation survey of 163 of the world's foremost wind experts, aimed at better understanding future costs and technology advancement possibilities. Results suggest significant opportunities for cost reductions, but also underlying uncertainties. Under the median scenario, experts anticipate 24-30% reductions by 2030 and 35-41% reductions by 2050 across the three wind applications studied. Costs could be even lower: experts predict a 10% chance that reductions will be more than 40% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050. Insights gained through expert elicitation complement other tools for evaluating cost-reduction potential, and help inform policy and planning, R & D and industry strategy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Functional Imaging of Human Vestibular Cortex Activity Elicited by Skull Tap and Auditory Tone Burst

The aim of the current study was to characterize the brain activation in response to two modes of vestibular stimulation: skull tap and auditory tone burst. The auditory tone burst has been used in previous studies to elicit saccular Vestibular Evoked Myogenic Potentials (VEMP) (Colebatch & Halmagyi 1992; Colebatch et al. 1994). Some researchers have reported that airconducted skull tap elicits both saccular and utricle VEMPs, while being faster and less irritating for the subjects (Curthoys et al. 2009, Wackym et al., 2012). However, it is not clear whether the skull tap and auditory tone burst elicit the same pattern of cortical activity. Both forms of stimulation target the otolith response, which provides a measurement of vestibular function independent from semicircular canals. This is of high importance for studying the vestibular disorders related to otolith deficits. Previous imaging studies have documented activity in the anterior and posterior insula, superior temporal gyrus, inferior parietal lobule, pre and post central gyri, inferior frontal gyrus, and the anterior cingulate cortex in response to different modes of vestibular stimulation (Bottini et al., 1994; Dieterich et al., 2003; Emri et al., 2003; Schlindwein et al., 2008; Janzen et al., 2008). Here we hypothesized that the skull tap elicits the similar pattern of cortical activity as the auditory tone burst. Subjects put on a set of MR compatible skull tappers and headphones inside the 3T GE scanner, while lying in supine position, with eyes closed. All subjects received both forms of the stimulation, however, the order of stimulation with auditory tone burst and air-conducted skull tap was counterbalanced across subjects. Pneumatically powered skull tappers were placed bilaterally on the cheekbones. The vibration of the cheekbone was transmitted to the vestibular cortex, resulting in vestibular response (Halmagyi et al., 1995). Auditory tone bursts were also delivered for comparison. To validate our stimulation method, we measured the ocular VEMP outside of the scanner. This measurement showed that both skull tap and auditory tone burst elicited vestibular evoked activation, indicated by eye muscle response. Our preliminary analyses showed that the skull tap elicited activation in medial frontal gyrus, superior temporal gyrus, postcentral gyrus, transverse temporal gyrus, anterior cingulate, and putamen. The auditory tone bursts elicited activation in medial frontal gyrus, superior temporal gyrus, superior frontal gyrus, precentral gyrus, inferior and superior parietal lobules. In line with our hypothesis, skull taps elicited a pattern of cortical activity closely similar to one elicited by auditory tone bursts. Further analysis will determine the extent to which the skull taps can replace the auditory tone stimulation in clinical and basic science vestibular assessments.

Noohi, Fatemeh↗

Functional Imaging of Human Vestibular Cortex Activity Elicited by Skull Tap and Auditory Tone Burst

The current study characterizes brain activation in response to two modes of vestibular stimulation: skull tap and auditory tone burst. The auditory tone burst has been used in previous studies to elicit either the vestibulo-spinal reflex (saccular-mediated colic Vestibular Evoked Myogenic Potentials (cVEMP)), or the ocular muscle response (utricle-mediated ocular VEMP (oVEMP)). Some researchers have reported that air-conducted skull tap elicits both saccular and utricle-mediated VEMPs, while being faster and less irritating for the subjects. However, it is not clear whether the skull tap and auditory tone burst elicit the same pattern of cortical activity. Both forms of stimulation target the otolith response, which provides a measurement of vestibular function independent from semicircular canals. This is of high importance for studying otolith-specific deficits, including gait and balance problems that astronauts experience upon returning to earth. Previous imaging studies have documented activity in the anterior and posterior insula, superior temporal gyrus, inferior parietal lobule, inferior frontal gyrus, and the anterior cingulate cortex in response to different modes of vestibular stimulation. Here we hypothesized that skull taps elicit similar patterns of cortical activity as the auditory tone bursts, and previous vestibular imaging studies. Subjects wore bilateral MR compatible skull tappers and headphones inside the 3T GE scanner, while lying in the supine position, with eyes closed. Subjects received both forms of the stimulation in a counterbalanced fashion. Pneumatically powered skull tappers were placed bilaterally on the cheekbones. The vibration of the cheekbone was transmitted to the vestibular system, resulting in the vestibular cortical response. Auditory tone bursts were also delivered for comparison. To validate our stimulation method, we measured the ocular VEMP outside of the scanner. This measurement showed that both skull tap and auditory tone burst elicited vestibular evoked myogenic potentials, indicated by eye muscle responses. We further assessed subjects' postural control and its correlation with vestibular cortical activity. Our results provide the first evidence of using skull taps to elicit vestibular activity inside the MRI scanner. By conducting conjunction analyses we showed that skull taps elicit the same activation pattern as auditory tone bursts (superior temporal gyrus), and both modes of stimulation activate previously identified vestibular cortical regions. Additionally, we found that skull taps elicit more robust vestibular activity compared to auditory tone bursts, with less reported aversive effects. This further supports that the skull tap could replace auditory tone burst stimulation in clinical interventions and basic science research. Moreover, we observed that greater vestibular activation is associated with better balance control. We showed that not only the quality of balance (indicated by the amount of body sway) but also the ability to maintain balance for a longer time (indicated by the balance time) was associated with individuals' vestibular cortical excitability. Our findings support an association between vestibular cortical activity and individual differences in balance. In sum, we found that the skull tap stimulation results in activation of canonical vestibular cortex, suggesting an equally valid, but more tolerable stimulation method compared to auditory tone bursts. This is of high importance in longitudinal vestibular assessments, in which minimizing aversive effects may contribute to higher protocol adherence.

Noohi, F.↗

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Shih, Ann T.↗

Convergence of hepcidin deficiency, systemic iron overloading, heme accumulation, and REV-ERBα/β activation in aryl hydrocarbon receptor-elicited hepatotoxicity

Persistent aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) agonists elicit dose-dependent hepatic lipid accumulation, oxidative stress, inflammation, and fibrosis in mice. Iron (Fe) promotes AhR-mediated oxidative stress by catalyzing reactive oxygen species (ROS) production. To further characterize the role of Fe in AhR-mediated hepatotoxicity, male C57BL/6 mice were orally gavaged with sesame oil vehicle or 0.01–30 μg/kg 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) every 4 days for 28 days. Duodenal epithelial and hepatic RNA-Seq data were integrated with hepatic AhR ChIP-Seq, capillary electrophoresis protein measurements, and clinical chemistry analyses. TCDD dose-dependently repressed hepatic expression of hepcidin (Hamp and Hamp2), the master regulator of systemic Fe homeostasis, resulting in a 2.6-fold increase in serum Fe with accumulating Fe spilling into urine. Total hepatic Fe levels were negligibly increased while transferrin saturation remained unchanged. Furthermore, TCDD elicited dose-dependent gene expression changes in heme biosynthesis including the induction of aminolevulinic acid synthase 1 (Alas1) and repression of uroporphyrinogen decarboxylase (Urod), leading to a 50% increase in hepatic hemin and a 13.2-fold increase in total urinary porphyrins. Consistent with this heme accumulation, differential gene expression suggests that heme activated BACH1 and REV-ERBα/β, causing induction of heme oxygenase 1 (Hmox1) and repression of fatty acid biosynthesis, respectively. Collectively, these results suggest that Hamp repression, Fe accumulation, and increased heme levels converge to promote oxidative stress and the progression of TCDD-elicited hepatotoxicity. - Highlights: • TCDD represses hepatic hepcidin expression, leading to systemic iron overloading. • Dysregulation of heme biosynthesis is consistent with heme and porphyrin accumulation. • Heme-activated REV-ERBα/β repress circadian-regulated hepatic lipid metabolism. • Disruption of iron homeostasis promotes TCDD-elicited steatohepatitis with fibrosis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The Polymorphic Membrane Protein G Has a Neutral Effect and the Plasmid Glycoprotein 3 an Antagonistic Effect on the Ability of the Major Outer Membrane Protein to Elicit Protective Immune Responses against a Chlamydia muridarum Respiratory Challenge

Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common bacterial sexually transmitted pathogen. The number of chlamydial infections continuous to increase and there is an urgent need for a safe and efficacious vaccine. To assess the ability of the Chlamydia muridarum polymorphic membrane protein G (PmpG) and the plasmid glycoprotein 3 (Pgp3) as single antigens, and in combination with the major outer-membrane protein (MOMP) to induce protection, BALB/c mice were immunized utilizing CpG-1826 and Montanide ISA 720 VG as adjuvants. Following vaccination with MOMP, significant humoral and cell-mediated immune responses were observed, while immunization with PmpG, or Pgp3, elicited weaker immune responses. Weaker immune responses were induced with MOMP+Pgp3 compared with MOMP alone. Following the intranasal challenge with C. muridarum, mice vaccinated with MOMP showed robust protection against body-weight loss, inflammatory responses in the lungs and number of Chlamydia recovered from the lungs. PmpG and Pgp3 elicited weaker protective responses. Mice immunized with MOMP+PmpG, were no better protected than animals vaccinated with MOMP only, while Pgp3 antagonized the protection elicited by MOMP. In conclusion, PmpG and Pgp3 elicited limited protective immune responses in mice against a respiratory challenge with C. muridarum and failed to enhance the protection induced by MOMP alone. The virulence of Pgp3 may result from its antagonistic effect on the immune protection induced by MOMP.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Motion sickness elicited by passive rotation in squirrel monkeys

Previous studies on the role of the area postrema (AP) in vomiting induced in the cat by motion and drugs have shown that the AP is not essential for motion-induced vomiting, but is necessary for vomiting to apomorphine and xylazine. To confirm these findings and to determine the role of the AP in the formation of Conditioned Taste Aversion (CTA), the AP was ablated bilaterally in 10 adult female cats. With one exception, the ablated cats continued to vomit to the same 1n0tion that elicited emesis before the ablation. Doses of xylazine and apomorphine that elicit emesis in intact cats, failed to induce emesis in the ablated cats. Histological examination indicated that 8 cats had complete lesions and 2 had partial lesions. Investigations of effects of AP ablations on CTA revealed that cats with complete lesions did not form CTA to flavored milk paired with xylazine injections. However, cats with partial lesion developed xylazine-induced CTA. Seven of the 8 completely lesioned cats developed motion-induced CTA, even though emesis was not consistently elicited by motion. These results suggest that there are multiple routes for inducing CTA and the emetic reflex, that CTA can form without eliciting emesis, and that CTA may be a sensitive measure of sub-emetic motion sickness.

M Corcoran↗

EXPERT ELICITATION OF ACROSS-TECHNOLOGY CORRELATIONS FOR REACTOR CAPITAL COSTS

Calculations of the uncertainty in the Levelized Cost at Equilibrium (LCAE) of generating nuclear electricity typically assume that the costs of the system component, notably reactors, are uncorrelated. Partial cancellation of independent errors thus gives rise to unrealistically small cost uncertainties for fuel cycles that incorporate multiple reactor technologies. This summary describes an expert elicitation of correlations between overnight reactor construction costs. It also defines a method for combining the elicitations into a single, consistent correlation matrix suitable for use in Monte Carlo LCAE calculations. Both the elicitation and uncertainty propagation methods are demonstrated through a pilot study where cost correlations between eight reactor technologies were elicited from experts in the US DOE Fuel Cycle Research

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Vaccination with Glycan-Modified HIV NFL Envelope Trimer-Liposomes Elicits Broadly Neutralizing Antibodies to Multiple Sites of Vulnerability

The elicitation of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) against the HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein (Env) trimer remains a major vaccine challenge. Most cross-conserved protein determinants are occluded by self-N-glycan shielding, limiting B cell recognition of the underlying polypeptide surface. The exceptions to the contiguous glycan shield include the conserved receptor CD4 binding site (CD4bs) and glycoprotein (gp)41 elements proximal to the furin cleavage site. Accordingly, we performed heterologous trimer-liposome prime:boosting in rabbits to drive B cells specific for cross-conserved sites. To preferentially expose the CD4bs to B cells, we eliminated proximal N-glycans while maintaining the native-like state of the cleavage-independent NFL trimers, followed by gradual N-glycan restoration coupled with heterologous boosting. This approach successfully elicited CD4bs-directed, cross-neutralizing Abs, including one targeting a unique glycan-protein epitope and a bNAb (87% breadth) directed to the gp120:gp41 interface, both resolved by high-resolution cryoelectron microscopy. This study provides proof-of-principle immunogenicity toward eliciting bNAbs by vaccination.

1C2↗

Diverse array of neutralizing antibodies elicited upon Spike Ferritin Nanoparticle vaccination in rhesus macaques

The repeat emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VoC) with decreased susceptibility to vaccine-elicited antibodies highlights the need to develop next-generation vaccine candidates that confer broad protection. Here we describe the antibody response induced by the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Ferritin Nanoparticle (SpFN) vaccine candidate adjuvanted with the Army Liposomal Formulation including QS21 (ALFQ) in non-human primates. By isolating and characterizing several monoclonal antibodies directed against the Spike Receptor Binding Domain (RBD), N-Terminal Domain (NTD), or the S2 Domain, we define the molecular recognition of vaccine-elicited cross-reactive monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) elicited by SpFN. We identify six neutralizing antibodies with broad sarbecovirus cross-reactivity that recapitulate serum polyclonal antibody responses. In particular, RBD mAb WRAIR-5001 binds to the conserved cryptic region with high affinity to sarbecovirus clades 1 and 2, including Omicron variants, while mAb WRAIR-5021 offers complete protection from B.1.617.2 (Delta) in a murine challenge study. Our data further highlight the ability of SpFN vaccination to stimulate cross-reactive B cells targeting conserved regions of the Spike with activity against SARS CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 variants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Structural insights into VRC01-class bnAb precursors with diverse light chains elicited in the IAVI G001 human vaccine trial

The development of germline-targeting vaccines represents a potentially transformative strategy to elicit broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) against HIV and other antigenically diverse pathogens. Here, we report on structural characterization of vaccine-elicited VRC01-class bnAb precursors in the IAVI G001 Phase 1 clinical trial with the eOD-GT8 60mer nanoparticle as immunogen. High-resolution X-ray structures of eOD-GT8 monomer complexed with Fabs of five VRC01-class bnAb precursors with >90% germline identity revealed a conserved mode of binding to the HIV CD4-binding site via IGHV1-2-encoded heavy chains, mirroring mature bnAb interactions. The light-chain V-gene diversity emulated VRC01 bnAbs and stabilized antigen engagement, while their conserved five-residue LCDR3 motifs prevented steric clashes. Notably, the VRC01-class bnAb precursors accommodated the N276 glycan, a key barrier in HIV Env recognition, through structural rearrangements in HCDR3 or LCDR1, despite its absence in the immunogen. Surface plasmon resonance analysis showed that 87% of elicited antibodies retained glycan binding capacity, albeit with reduced affinity. These findings validate the ability of eOD-GT8 60mer nanoparticles to prime VRC01-class bnAb precursors with native-like paratopes but with intrinsic glycan adaptability. Structural mimicry of mature bnAbs was observed even with limited somatic hypermutation, indicating that critical features are encoded in the germline repertoire. The structures highlight how germline-encoded features drive bnAb-like recognition at early stages. This work provides molecular evidence supporting germline targeting in humans and provides guidance for designing booster immunogens to shepherd affinity maturation toward broad neutralization.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

The perspective awareness model - Eliciting multiple perspectives to formulate high quality decisions

A great deal of attention is given to the importance of communication in environmental remediation and radioactive waste management. However, very little attention is given to eliciting multiple perspectives so as to formulate high quality decisions. Plans that are based on a limited number of perspectives tend to be narrowly focused whereas those that are based on a wide variety of perspectives tend to be comprehensive, higher quality, and more apt to be put into application. In addition, existing methods of dialogue have built-in limitations in that they typically draw from the predominant thinking patterns which focus in some areas but ignore others. This can result in clarity but a lack of comprehensiveness. This paper presents a Perspective Awareness Model which helps groups such as partnering teams, interagency teams, steering committees, and working groups elicit a wide net of perspectives and viewpoints. The paper begins by describing five factors that makes cooperation among such groups challenging. Next, a Perspective Awareness Model that makes it possible to manage these five factors is presented. The two primary components of this model --- the eight 'Thinking Directions' and the 'Shared Documentation' --- are described in detail. Several examples are given to illustrate how the Perspective Awareness Model can be used to elicit multiple perspectives to formulate high quality decisions in the area of environmental remediation and radioactive waste management. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Intranasal Nanoparticle Vaccination Elicits a Persistent, Polyfunctional CD4 T Cell Response in the Murine Lung Specific for a Highly Conserved Influenza Virus Antigen That Is Sufficient To Mediate Protection from Influenza Virus Challenge

We report lung-localized CD4 T cells play a critical role in the control of influenza virus infection and can provide broadly protective immunity. However, current influenza vaccination strategies primarily target influenza hemagglutinin (HA) and are administered peripherally to induce neutralizing antibodies. We have used an intranasal vaccination strategy targeting the highly conserved influenza nucleoprotein (NP) to elicit broadly protective lung-localized CD4 T cell responses. The vaccine platform consists of a self-assembling nanolipoprotein particle (NLP) linked to NP with an adjuvant. We have evaluated the functionality, in vivo localization, and persistence of the T cells elicited. Our study revealed that intranasal vaccination elicits a polyfunctional subset of lung-localized CD4 T cells that persist long term. A subset of these lung CD4 T cells localize to the airway, where they can act as early responders following encounter with cognate antigen. Polyfunctional CD4 T cells isolated from airway and lung tissue produce significantly more effector cytokines IFN-γ and TNF-α, as well as cytotoxic functionality. When adoptively transferred to naive recipients, CD4 T cells from NLP:NP-immunized lung were sufficient to mediate 100% survival from lethal challenge with H1N1 influenza virus.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Maize Terpene Synthase 8 (ZmTPS8) Contributes to a Complex Blend of Fungal-Elicited Antibiotics

In maize (Zea mays), fungal-elicited immune responses include the accumulation of terpene synthase (TPS) and cytochrome P450 monooxygenases (CYP) enzymes resulting in complex antibiotic arrays of sesquiterpenoids and diterpenoids, including α/β-selinene derivatives, zealexins, kauralexins and dolabralexins. To uncover additional antibiotic families, we conducted metabolic profiling of elicited stem tissues in mapping populations, which included B73 × M162W recombinant inbred lines and the Goodman diversity panel. Five candidate sesquiterpenoids associated with a chromosome 1 locus spanning the location of ZmTPS27 and ZmTPS8. Heterologous enzyme co-expression studies of ZmTPS27 in Nicotiana benthamiana resulted in geraniol production while ZmTPS8 yielded α-copaene, δ-cadinene and sesquiterpene alcohols consistent with epi-cubebol, cubebol, copan-3-ol and copaborneol matching the association mapping efforts. ZmTPS8 is an established multiproduct α-copaene synthase; however, ZmTPS8-derived sesquiterpene alcohols are rarely encountered in maize tissues. A genome wide association study further linked an unknown sesquiterpene acid to ZmTPS8 and combined ZmTPS8-ZmCYP71Z19 heterologous enzyme co-expression studies yielded the same product. To consider defensive roles for ZmTPS8, in vitro bioassays with cubebol demonstrated significant antifungal activity against both Fusarium graminearum and Aspergillus parasiticus. As a genetically variable biochemical trait, ZmTPS8 contributes to the cocktail of terpenoid antibiotics present following complex interactions between wounding and fungal elicitation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Elicitation of motion sickness by head movements in the microgravity phase of parabolic flight maneuvers

Susceptibility to motion sickness was tested in 44 subjects during parabolic flight maneuvers in a KC-135 aircraft. The subjects were categorized as: (1) insusceptible; (2) moderately susceptible; or (3) highly susceptible to motion sickness during exposure to varying degrees of gravito-inertial force. After categorization, three types of head movements were evaluated to determine the effect on the subjects' baseline susceptibility. Ten cycles of head movements were made in three different parabolas until nausea was reached or 40 parabolas had been completed. All types of head movements significantly increased susceptibility for all categories; eyes-open conditions were always more stressful than eyes-closed conditions for each type of head movement. It is concluded that head movements in microgravity can elicit symptoms of motion sickness. It is suggested that head movements play an etiological role in space motion sickness. In ground based studies where head movements are necessary to elicit symptoms, they are also necessary to elicit adaptation to the microgravity environment.

Lackner, J. R.↗

Expert elicitation survey predicts 37% to 49% declines in wind energy costs by 2050

Wind energy has experienced accelerated cost reduction over the past five years—far greater than predicted in a 2015 expert elicitation. Here we report results from a new survey on wind costs, compare those with previous results and discuss the accuracy of the earlier predictions. In this work, we show that experts in 2020 expect future onshore and offshore wind costs to decline 37–49% by 2050, resulting in costs 50% lower than predicted in 2015. This is due to cost reductions witnessed over the past five years and expected continued advancements. If realized, these costs might allow wind to play a larger role in energy supply than previously anticipated. Considering both surveys, we also conclude that there is considerable uncertainty about future costs. Our results illustrate the importance of considering cost uncertainty, highlight the value and limits of using experts to reveal those uncertainties, and yield possible lessons for energy modellers and expert elicitation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗