On the Emergent Constraints of Climate Sensitivity
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Xin Qu↗
SEARCH · Search NASA
Results for “emergent constraint”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone‐Depleting Substances
We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone‐depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry and Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Projects (AerChemMIP, RFMIP). A large intermodel spread in this globally averaged quantity necessitates an “emergent constraint” approach whereby we link the radiative forcing to ozone declines measured and simulated during 1979–2000, excluding two volcanically perturbed periods. During this period, ozone‐depleting substances were increasing, and several merged satellite‐based climatologies document the ensuing decline of total‐column ozone. Using these analyses, we find an effective radiative forcing of −0.05 to 0.13 W m−2. Our best estimate (0.04 W m−2) is on the edge of the “likely” range given by the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC of 0.03 to 0.33 W m−2 but is in better agreement with two other literature results.
ozone depletion↗
Improved Representation of Atmospheric Dynamics in CMIP6 Models Removes Climate Sensitivity Dependence on Hadley Cell Climatological Extent
The persistent inter-model spread in the response of global mean surface temperature to increased CO. (known as the “Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity”, or “ECS”) is a crucial problem across model generations. This work examines the influence of the models’ present-day atmospheric circulation climatologies, and the accompanying climatological cloud radiative effects, in explaining that spread. We analyze the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and _nd that they simulate a more poleward, and thus more realistic, edge of the Hadley Circulation (HC) in the SouthernHemisphere than the CMIP5 models, although the climatological shortwave cloud radiative effects are similar in the two generations of models. A few CMIP5 models with extreme equatorward biases in the HC edge exhibited high ECS due to strong Southern midlatitude shortwave cloud radiative warming in response to climate change, suggesting an ECS dependence on HC position. We find that such constraint no longer holds for the CMIP6 models, due to absence of models with extreme HC climatologies. In spite of this, however, the CMIP6 models show an increased spread in ECS, with more models in the high ECS range. Additionally, an improved representation of the climatological jet dynamics does not lead to a new emergent constraint in the CMIP6 models either.
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity↗
Taking Climate Model Evaluation to the Next Level
Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.
Eyring, Veronika↗
Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations
The mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) is a standard time period for the evaluation of the simulated response of global climate models using palaeoclimate reconstructions. The latest mid-Holocene simulations are a palaeoclimate entry card for the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) component of the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) – hereafter referred to as PMIP4-CMIP6. Here we provide an initial analysis and evaluation of the results of the experiment for the mid-Holocene. We show that state-of-the-art models produce climate changes that are broadly consistent with theory and observations, including increased summer warming of the Northern Hemisphere and associated shifts in tropical rainfall. Many features of the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations were present in the previous generation (PMIP3-CMIP5) of simulations. The PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble for the mid-Holocene has a global mean temperature change of −0.3 K, which is −0.2 K cooler than the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations predominantly as a result of the prescription of realistic greenhouse gas concentrations in PMIP4-CMIP6. Biases in the magnitude and the sign of regional responses identified in PMIP3-CMIP5, such as the amplification of the northern African monsoon, precipitation changes over Europe, and simulated aridity in mid-Eurasia, are still present in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations. Despite these issues, PMIP4-CMIP6 and the mid-Holocene provide an opportunity both for quantitative evaluation and derivation of emergent constraints on the hydrological cycle, feedback strength, and potentially climate sensitivity.
mid-Holocene simulations↗
Game-Theoretic Modeling of Vegetation Composition, Structure, and Dynamics: Physical Constraints, Fundamental Processes, and Emergent Properties
Vegetation structural and compositional dynamics emerge from plant physiological and demographic processes, individual-based competition, vegetation-soil feedbacks, and environmental variations and disturbance events. Predicting long-term changes in vegetation requires scaling plant individual behavior to large scale ecosystem processes. In this presentation, we summarize our studies in the modeling of vegetation demographic processes, competitively dominant plant traits, plant hydraulic processes, and stochastic disturbance effects on ecosystems, and illustrate the roles of the underlying ecological processes and eco-evolutionary optimization in vegetation modeling. With the case studies of evolutionarily stable strategy of allocation, leaf traits, and plant hydraulic processes, we show how the ecosystem processes and vegetation dynamics are determined by the individual-based plant competition and variations of soil and climate conditions. The predictions of ecosystem carbon dynamics can be greatly different with those from the traditional “single-tree” models. We also discuss the tradeoffs of plant traits and evolutionarily optimal strategies in the modeling of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics in an Earth system model.
vegetation models↗
Evaluating Observational Constraints on Intermodel Spread in Cloud, Temperature, and Humidity Feedbacks
Uncertainty in climate feedbacks is the primary source of the spread in projected surface temperature responses to anthropogenic forcing. Cloud feedback persistently appears as the main source of disagreement in future projections while the combined lapse-rate plus water vapor (LR+WV) feedback is a smaller (30%), but non-trivial source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity. Here we attempt to observationally constrain the feedbacks in an effort to reduce the irintermodel uncertainties. The observed interannual variation provides a useful constraint on the long-term cloud feedback, as evidenced by the consistency of global-mean values and regional contributions to the intermodal spread on both interannual and long-term timescales. However, interannual variability does not serve to constrain the long-term LR+WV feedback spread, which we find is dominated by the varying tropical relative humidity (RH) response to interhemispheric warming differences under clear-sky conditions and the RH-fixed LR feedback under all-sky conditions
radiative feedbacks↗
Volcanism of the Colorado Plateau - Basin and Range Transition: Implications for Crustal Processes
On the Colorado Plateau-Basin and Range transition in Arizona and New Mexico, basaltic volcanism takes two physiographic forms: (1) Major central composite volcanoes (e.g., San Francisco Peaks) in which basaltic magma differentiates at shallow crustal levels to siliceous and members and (2) large numbers of small cinder cones and a few domes that result from numerous discrete magma batches which apparently had little opportunity for differentiation. This study represents the first look at the petrogenesis of Plateau-bounding volcanic fields, based on rigorous stratigraphic controls, in combination with major and trace-element constraints. The emerging pattern of large volcanic constructs associated with shallow fractional crystallization, and numerous cinder cones associated with limited or no shallow differentiation may provide an analogue for interpreting petrogenetic patterns and/or tectonic settings on Mars.
Condit, C. D.↗
QPO Constraints on Neutron Stars
The kilohertz frequencies of QPOs from accreting neutron star systems imply that they are generated in regions of strong gravity, close to the star. This suggests that observations of the QPOs can be used to constrain the properties of neutron stars themselves, and in particular to inform us about the properties of cold matter beyond nuclear densities. Here we discuss some relatively model-insensitive constraints that emerge from the kilohertz QPOs, as well as recent developments that may hint at phenomena related to unstable circular orbits outside neutron stars.
Miller, M. Coleman↗
Evaluation of Crew-Centric Onboard Mission Operations Planning and Execution Tool: Year 2
Currently, mission planning for the International Space Station (ISS) is largely affected by ground operators in mission control. The task of creating a week-long mission plan for ISS crew takes dozens of people multiple days to complete, and is often created far in advance of its execution. As such, re-planning or adapting to changing real-time constraints or emergent issues is similarly taxing. As we design for future mission operations concepts to other planets or areas with limited connectivity to Earth, more of these ground-based tasks will need to be handled autonomously by the crew onboard.There is a need for a highly usable (including low training time) tool that enables efficient self-scheduling and execution within a single package. The ISS Program has identified Playbook as a potential option. It already has high crew acceptance as a plan viewer from previous analogs and can now support a crew self-scheduling assessment on ISS or on another mission. The goals of this work, a collaboration between the Human Research Program and the ISS Program, are to inform the design of systems for more autonomous crew operations and provide a platform for research on crew autonomy for future deep space missions. Our second year of the research effort have included new insights on the crew self-scheduling sessions performed by the crew through use on the HERA (Human Exploration Research Analog) and NEEMO (NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations) analogs. Use on the NEEMO analog involved two self-scheduling strategies where the crew planned and executed two days of EVAs (Extra-Vehicular Activities). On HERA year two represented the first HERA campaign where we were able to perform research tasks. This involved selected flexible activities that the crew could schedule, mock timelines where the crew completed more complex planning exercises, usability evaluation of the crew self-scheduling features, and more insights into the limit of plan complexity that the crew could effectively self-schedule. In parallel we have added in new features and functionality in the Playbook tool based off of our insights from crew self-scheduling in the NASA analogs. In particular this year we have added in the ability for the crew to add, edit, and remove their own activities in the Playbook tool, expanding the type of planning and re-planning possible in the tool and opening up the ability for more free form plan creation. The ability to group and manipulate groups of activities from the plan task list was also added, allowing crew members to add predefined sets of activities onto their mission timeline. In addition we also added a way for crew members to roll back changes in their plan, in order to allow an undo like capability. These features expand and complement the initial self-scheduling features added in year one with the goal of making crew autonomous planning more efficient. As part of this work we have also finished developing the first version of our Playbook Data Analysis Tool, a research tool built to interpret and analyze the unobtrusively collected data obtained during the NASA analog missions through Playbook. This data which includes user click interaction as well as plan change information, through the Playbook Data Analysis Tool, allows us to playback this information as if a video camera was mounted over the crewmember's tablet. While the primary purpose of this tool is to allow usability analysis of crew self-scheduling sessions used on the NASA analog, since the data collected is structured, the tool can automatically derive metrics that would be traditionally tedious to achieve without manual analysis of video playback. We will demonstrate and discuss the ability for future derived metrics to be added to the tool. In addition to the current data and results gathered in year two we will also discuss the preparation and goals of our International Space Station (ISS) onboard technology demonstration with Playbook. This technology demonstration will be preformed as part of the CAST payload starting in late 2016.
onboard planning↗
Challenges in Developing Better Observational Constraints and Models for Aerosols : Emerging Ideas for Design and Use of Future Observing Systems
No abstract available
Raman, Aishwarya↗
Design Constraints Regarding The Use Of Fluids In Emergency Medical Systems For Space Flight
The Exploration Medical Capability Project of the Human Research Program is tasked with identifying, investigating and addressing gaps existing gaps in either knowledge or technology that need to be addressed in order to enable safer exploration missions. There are several gaps that involve treatment for emergency medical situations. Some of these treatments involve the handling of liquids in the spacecraft environment which involve gas-liquid mixtures handling, dissolution chemistry and thermal issues. Some of the recent technology efforts include the Intravenous fluid generation (IVGEN) experiment, the In-Suit Injection System (ISIS) experiment, and medical suction. Constraints include limited volume, shelf life, handling biohazards, availability of power, crew time and medical training.
McQuillen, John↗
Horizon: A Proposal for Large Aperture, Active Optics in Geosynchronous Orbit
In 1999, NASA's New Millennium Program called for proposals to validate new technology in high-earth orbit for the Earth Observing-3 (NMP EO3) mission to fly in 2003. In response, we proposed to test a large aperture, active optics telescope in geosynchronous orbit. This would flight-qualify new technologies for both Earth and Space science: 1) a future instrument with LANDSAT image resolution and radiometric quality watching continuously from geosynchronous station, and 2) the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST) for deep space imaging. Six enabling technologies were to be flight-qualified: 1) a 3-meter, lightweight segmented primary mirror, 2) mirror actuators and mechanisms, 3) a deformable mirror, 4) coarse phasing techniques, 5) phase retrieval for wavefront control during stellar viewing, and 6) phase diversity for wavefront control during Earth viewing. Three enhancing technologies were to be flight- validated: 1) mirror deployment and latching mechanisms, 2) an advanced microcontroller, and 3) GPS at GEO. In particular, two wavefront sensing algorithms, phase retrieval by JPL and phase diversity by ERIM International, were to sense optical system alignment and focus errors, and to correct them using high-precision mirror mechanisms. Active corrections based on Earth scenes are challenging because phase diversity images must be collected from extended, dynamically changing scenes. In addition, an Earth-facing telescope in GEO orbit is subject to a powerful diurnal thermal and radiometric cycle not experienced by deep-space astronomy. The Horizon proposal was a bare-bones design for a lightweight large-aperture, active optical system that is a practical blend of science requirements, emerging technologies, budget constraints, launch vehicle considerations, orbital mechanics, optical hardware, phase-determination algorithms, communication strategy, computational burdens, and first-rate cooperation among earth and space scientists, engineers and managers. This manuscript presents excerpts from the Horizon proposal's sections that describe the Earth science requirements, the structural -thermal-optical design, the wavefront sensing and control, and the on-orbit validation.
Chesters, Dennis↗
Emergence of RNA and Early Life; Experimental Modeling and Geochemical Constraints
Support from this grant continues to fund our research on two related problems. One involves attempts to model the abiotic formation of simple source compounds for functional biomolecules, their concentration from dilute state in the hydrosphere and in several cases surface induced reactions to form precursor monomers for bioactive end products. The second area is a search for the earliest traces of life on Earth and the early environments on Earth and Mars. For this purpose we have analyzed the isotopic compositions of carbon and nitrogen in graphitic residues that have been thought to represent the remains of microorganisms. The results of these studies have been presented in a number of publication, listed as references.
Arrhenius, Gustaf↗
Skylab Saturn 1B flight manual
A Saturn 1B Flight Manual provides launch vehicle systems descriptions and predicted performance data for the Skylab missions. Vehicle SL-2 (SA-206) is the baseline for this manual; but, as a result of the great similarity, the material is representative of SL-3 and SL-4 launch vehicles, also. The Flight Manual is not a control document but is intended primarily as an aid to astronauts who are training for Skylab missions. In order to provide a comprehensive reference for that purpose, the manual also contains descriptions of the ground support interfaces, prelaunch operations, and emergency procedures. Mission variables and constraints are summarized, and mission control monitoring and data flow during launch preparation and flight are discussed.
Source record↗
Constraints imposed by cosmic evolution towards the development of life
The probability of terrestrial-type life emerging in any other place of the universe will depend on the constraints imposed by cosmic evolution on that particular place. A systematic examination of cosmic constraints, which must have provided the necessary and sufficient conditions for the origin and evolution of life on earth, shows that they are concerned with the nature of the central star, the planetary system, and the specific life-bearing planet, as well as with the chemical and biological evolution processes involved. These constraints or universal requirements for life are briefly described.
Oro, J.↗
Strategies for Global Optimization of Temporal Preferences
A temporal reasoning problem can often be naturally characterized as a collection of constraints with associated local preferences for times that make up the admissible values for those constraints. Globally preferred solutions to such problems emerge as a result of well-defined operations that compose and order temporal assignments. The overall objective of this work is a characterization of different notions of global preference, and to identify tractable sub-classes of temporal reasoning problems incorporating these notions. This paper extends previous results by refining the class of useful notions of global temporal preference that are associated with problems that admit of tractable solution techniques. This paper also answers the hitherto open question of whether problems that seek solutions that are globally preferred from a Utilitarian criterion for global preference can be found tractably.
Morris, Paul↗
Impact of Operating Context on the Use of Structure in Air Traffic Controller Cognitive Processes
This paper investigates the influence of structure on air traffic controllers cognitive processes in the TRACON, En Route, and Oceanic environments. Radar data and voice command analyses were conducted to support hypotheses generated through observations and interviews conducted at the various facilities. Three general types of structure-based abstractions (standard flows, groupings, and critical points) have been identified as being used in each context, though the details of their application varied in accordance with the constraints of the particular operational environment. Projection emerged as a key cognitive process aided by the structure-based abstractions, and there appears to be a significant difference between how time-based versus spatial-based projection is performed by controllers. It is recommended that consideration be given to the value provided by the structure-based abstractions to the controller as well as to maintain consistency between the type (time or spatial) of information support provided to the controller.
Davison, Hayley J.↗