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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Game-Theoretic Modeling of Vegetation Composition, Structure, and Dynamics: Physical Constraints, Fundamental Processes, and Emergent Properties

Vegetation structural and compositional dynamics emerge from plant physiological and demographic processes, individual-based competition, vegetation-soil feedbacks, and environmental variations and disturbance events. Predicting long-term changes in vegetation requires scaling plant individual behavior to large scale ecosystem processes. In this presentation, we summarize our studies in the modeling of vegetation demographic processes, competitively dominant plant traits, plant hydraulic processes, and stochastic disturbance effects on ecosystems, and illustrate the roles of the underlying ecological processes and eco-evolutionary optimization in vegetation modeling. With the case studies of evolutionarily stable strategy of allocation, leaf traits, and plant hydraulic processes, we show how the ecosystem processes and vegetation dynamics are determined by the individual-based plant competition and variations of soil and climate conditions. The predictions of ecosystem carbon dynamics can be greatly different with those from the traditional “single-tree” models. We also discuss the tradeoffs of plant traits and evolutionarily optimal strategies in the modeling of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics in an Earth system model.

vegetation models↗

NASA NTRS2004

Properties of a Formal Method for Prediction of Emergent Behaviors in Swarm-based Systems

Autonomous intelligent swarms of satellites are being proposed for NASA missions that have complex behaviors and interactions. The emergent properties of swarms make these missions powerful, but at the same time more difficult to design and assure that proper behaviors will emerge. This paper gives the results of research into formal methods techniques for verification and validation of NASA swarm-based missions. Multiple formal methods were evaluated to determine their effectiveness in modeling and assuring the behavior of swarms of spacecraft. The NASA ANTS mission was used as an example of swarm intelligence for which to apply the formal methods. This paper will give the evaluation of these formal methods and give partial specifications of the ANTS mission using four selected methods. We then give an evaluation of the methods and the needed properties of a formal method for effective specification and prediction of emergent behavior in swarm-based systems.

Rouff, Christopher↗

NASA NTRS2012

Comparison of Aircraft Models and Integration Schemes for Interval Management in the TRACON

Reusable models of common elements for communication, computation, decision and control in air traffic management are necessary in order to enable simulation, analysis and assurance of emergent properties, such as safety and stability, for a given operational concept. Uncertainties due to faults, such as dropped messages, along with non-linearities and sensor noise are an integral part of these models, and impact emergent system behavior. Flight control algorithms designed using a linearized version of the flight mechanics will exhibit error due to model uncertainty, and may not be stable outside a neighborhood of the given point of linearization. Moreover, the communication mechanism by which the sensed state of an aircraft is fed back to a flight control system (such as an ADS-B message) impacts the overall system behavior; both due to sensor noise as well as dropped messages (vacant samples). Additionally simulation of the flight controller system can exhibit further numerical instability, due to selection of the integration scheme and approximations made in the flight dynamics. We examine the theoretical and numerical stability of a speed controller under the Euler and Runge-Kutta schemes of integration, for the Maintain phase for a Mid-Term (2035-2045) Interval Management (IM) Operational Concept for descent and landing operations. We model uncertainties in communication due to missed ADS-B messages by vacant samples in the integration schemes, and compare the emergent behavior of the system, in terms of stability, via the boundedness of the final system state. Any bound on the errors incurred by these uncertainties will play an essential part in a composable assurance argument required for real-time, flight-deck guidance and control systems,. Thus, we believe that the creation of reusable models, which possess property guarantees, such as safety and stability, is an innovative and essential requirement to assessing the emergent properties of novel airspace concepts of operation.

Neogi, Natasha↗

NASA NTRS2003

Evolution and Transport of Water in the Upper Regolith of Mars

Long standing theoretical predictions [1-3], as well as recent spacecraft observations [4] indicate that large quantities of ice is present in the high latitudes upper decimeters to meters of the Martian regolith. At shallower depths and warmer locations small amounts of H2O, either adsorbed or free, may be present transiently. An understanding of the evolution of water based on theoretical and experimental considerations of the processes operating at the Martian environment is required. In particular, the porosity, diffusivity, and permeability of soils and their effect on water vapor transport under Mars-like conditions have been estimated, but experimental validation of such models is lacking. Goal: Three related mechanisms may affect water transport in the upper Martian regolith. 1) diffusion along a concentration gradient under isobaric conditions, 2) diffusion along a thermal gradient, which may give rise to a concentration gradient as ice sublimes or molecules desorb from the regolith, and 3) hydraulic flow, or mass motion in response to a pressure gradient. Our combined theoretical and experimental investigation seeks to disentangle these mechanisms and determine which process(es) are dominant in the upper regolith over various timescales. A detailed one-dimensional model of the upper regolith is being created which incorporates water adsorption/ desorption, condensation, porosity, diffusivity, and permeability effects. Certain factors such as diffusivity are difficult to determine theoretically due to the wide range of intrinsic grain properties such as particle sizes, shapes, packing densities, and emergent properties such as tortuosity. An experiment is being designed which will allow us to more accurately determine diffusivity, permeability, and water desorption isotherms for regolith simulants.

Hudson, T. L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Survey of Formal Methods for Intelligent Swarms

Swarms of intelligent autonomous spacecraft, involving complex behaviors and interactions, are being proposed for future space exploration missions. Such missions provide greater flexibility and offer the possibility of gathering more science data than traditional single spacecraft missions. The emergent properties of swarms make these missions powerful, but simultaneously far more difficult to design, and to assure that the proper behaviors will emerge. These missions are also considerably more complex than previous types of missions, and NASA, like other organizations, has little experience in developing or in verifying and validating these types of missions. A significant challenge when verifying and validating swarms of intelligent interacting agents is how to determine that the possible exponential interactions and emergent behaviors are producing the desired results. Assuring correct behavior and interactions of swarms will be critical to mission success. The Autonomous Nano Technology Swarm (ANTS) mission is an example of one of the swarm types of missions NASA is considering. The ANTS mission will use a swarm of picospacecraft that will fly from Earth orbit to the Asteroid Belt. Using an insect colony analogy, ANTS will be composed of specialized workers for asteroid exploration. Exploration would consist of cataloguing the mass, density, morphology, and chemical composition of the asteroids, including any anomalous concentrations of specific minerals. To perform this task, ANTS would carry miniaturized instruments, such as imagers, spectrometers, and detectors. Since ANTS and other similar missions are going to consist of autonomous spacecraft that may be out of contact with the earth for extended periods of time, and have low bandwidths due to weight constraints, it will be difficult to observe improper behavior and to correct any errors after launch. Providing V&V (verification and validation) for this type of mission is new to NASA, and represents the cutting edge in system correctness, and requires higher levels of assurance than other (traditional) missions that use a single or small number of spacecraft that are deterministic in nature and have near continuous communication access. One of the highest possible levels of assurance comes from the application of formal methods. Formal methods are mathematics-based tools and techniques for specifying and verifying (software and hardware) systems. They are particularly useful for specifying complex parallel systems, such as exemplified by the ANTS mission, where the entire system is difficult for a single person to fully understand, a problem that is multiplied with multiple developers. Once written, a formal specification can be used to prove properties of a system (e.g., the underlying system will go from one state to another or not into a specific state) and check for particular types of errors (e.g., race or livelock conditions). A formal specification can also be used as input to a model checker for further validation. This report gives the results of a survey of formal methods techniques for verification and validation of space missions that use swarm technology. Multiple formal methods were evaluated to determine their effectiveness in modeling and assuring the behavior of swarms of spacecraft using the ANTS mission as an example system. This report is the first result of the project to determine formal approaches that are promising for formally specifying swarm-based systems. From this survey, the most promising approaches were selected and are discussed relative to their possible application to the ANTS mission. Future work will include the application of an integrated approach, based on the selected approaches identified in this report, to the formal specification of the ANTS mission.

Truszkowski, Walt↗

NASA NTRS2004

Verification of NASA Emergent Systems

NASA is studying advanced technologies for a future robotic exploration mission to the asteroid belt. This mission, the prospective ANTS (Autonomous Nano Technology Swarm) mission, will comprise of 1,000 autonomous robotic agents designed to cooperate in asteroid exploration. The emergent properties of swarm type missions make them powerful, but at the same time are more difficult to design and assure that the proper behaviors will emerge. We are currently investigating formal methods and techniques for verification and validation of future swarm-based missions. The advantage of using formal methods is their ability to mathematically assure the behavior of a swarm, emergent or otherwise. The ANT mission is being used as an example and case study for swarm-based missions for which to experiment and test current formal methods with intelligent swam. Using the ANTS mission, we have evaluated multiple formal methods to determine their effectiveness in modeling and assuring swarm behavior.

Rouff, Christopher↗

NASA NTRS2004

Verification of Emergent Behaviors in Swarm-based Systems

The emergent properties of swarms make swarm-based missions powerful, but at the same time more difficult to design and to assure that the proper behaviors will emerge. We are currently investigating formal methods and techniques for verification and validation of swarm-based missions. The Autonomous Nano-Technology Swarm (ANTS) mission is being used as an example and case study for swarm-based missions to experiment and test current formal methods with intelligent swarms. Using the ANTS mission, we have evaluated multiple formal methods to determine their effectiveness in modeling and assuring swarm behavior. This paper introduces how intelligent swarm technology is being proposed for NASA missions, and gives the results of a comparison of several formal methods and approaches for specifying intelligent swarm-based systems and their effectiveness for predicting emergent behavior.

Rouff, Christopher↗

NASA NTRS2006

Experiences applying Formal Approaches in the Development of Swarm-Based Space Exploration Systems

NASA is researching advanced technologies for future exploration missions using intelligent swarms of robotic vehicles. One of these missions is the Autonomous Nan0 Technology Swarm (ANTS) mission that will explore the asteroid belt using 1,000 cooperative autonomous spacecraft. The emergent properties of intelligent swarms make it a potentially powerful concept, but at the same time more difficult to design and ensure that the proper behaviors will emerge. NASA is investigating formal methods and techniques for verification of such missions. The advantage of using formal methods is the ability to mathematically verify the behavior of a swarm, emergent or otherwise. Using the ANTS mission as a case study, we have evaluated multiple formal methods to determine their effectiveness in modeling and ensuring desired swarm behavior. This paper discusses the results of this evaluation and proposes an integrated formal method for ensuring correct behavior of future NASA intelligent swarms.

Rouff, Christopher A.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Quantitative Simulations of MST Visual Receptive Field Properties Using a Template Model of Heading Estimation

We previously developed a template model of primate visual self-motion processing that proposes a specific set of projections from MT-like local motion sensors onto output units to estimate heading and relative depth from optic flow. At the time, we showed that that the model output units have emergent properties similar to those of MSTd neurons, although there was little physiological evidence to test the model more directly. We have now systematically examined the properties of the model using stimulus paradigms used by others in recent single-unit studies of MST: 1) 2-D bell-shaped heading tuning. Most MSTd neurons and model output units show bell-shaped heading tuning. Furthermore, we found that most model output units and the finely-sampled example neuron in the Duffy-Wurtz study are well fit by a 2D gaussian (sigma approx. 35deg, r approx. 0.9). The bandwidth of model and real units can explain why Lappe et al. found apparent sigmoidal tuning using a restricted range of stimuli (+/-40deg). 2) Spiral Tuning and Invariance. Graziano et al. found that many MST neurons appear tuned to a specific combination of rotation and expansion (spiral flow) and that this tuning changes little for approx. 10deg shifts in stimulus placement. Simulations of model output units under the same conditions quantitatively replicate this result. We conclude that a template architecture may underlie MT inputs to MST.

Stone, Leland S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Safety Expertise and the Perils of Novelty

Emerging aviation markets such as urban air mobility are giving rise to new technologies and means of operation. However, novelty may hide ‘unknown unknowns,’ raising new hazards. This paper examines how expertise and safety techniques enable transformative technologies such as reduced crew operations, hybrid wing-borne and rotor-born flight, federated air traffic services, and urban operations. We explore how analysts use expertise to address common-cause failures, collect and interpret safety data, and perform exacting tradeoffs between dissimilarity, redundancy, independence, and diversity (human, process lifecycle, or otherwise) to ensure safety. When novelty is present, analysts might not possess the expertise needed to fully understand the implications of design decisions and tradeoffs being made, especially in early lifecycle phases, on emergent properties such as safety. Safety expertise must be carefully cultivated. The conflicting views of safety experts must be unpacked to identify the divergence in fundamental assumptions, models, means, and methods that may be causing them. Once systems venture beyond the basis of what safety expertise can reliably guarantee, projects take on risk that must be managed. The paper contains key takeaways and actionable recommendations for novel OEMs and regulators touching on topics such as robust monitoring; clear and transparent reporting; incremental approaches to fielding novel systems in hazard-rich, risk-tolerant environments; the cultivation of safety culture and expertise in an organization; and the use of scientific study to reduce epistemic uncertainty in novel operations with new technologies. Since excessive novelty in aviation can undermine the current foundation of safety, humility and incrementalism are necessary to enable emerging aviation markets safely.

safety expertise↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Safety Expertise and the Perils of Novelty

safety expertise↗

NASA NTRS1981

Terrestrial evolution of polymerization of amino acids - Heat to ATP

Sets of amino acids containing sufficient trifunctional monomer are thermally polymerized at temperatures such as 65 deg; the amino acids order themselves. Various polymers have diverse catalytic activities. The polymers aggregate, in aqueous solution, to cell-like structures having those activities plus emergent properties, e.g. proliferatability. Polyamino acids containing sufficient lysine catalyze conversion of free amino acids, by ATP, to small peptides and a high molecular weight fraction. The lysine-rich proteinoid is active in solution, within suspensions of cell-like particles, or in other particles composed of lysine-rich proteinoid and homopolyribonucleotide. Selectivities are observed. An archaic polyamino acid prelude to coded protein synthesis is indicated.

Fox, S. W.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Self-organization via active exploration in robotic applications

We describe a neural network based robotic system. Unlike traditional robotic systems, our approach focussed on non-stationary problems. We indicate that self-organization capability is necessary for any system to operate successfully in a non-stationary environment. We suggest that self-organization should be based on an active exploration process. We investigated neural architectures having novelty sensitivity, selective attention, reinforcement learning, habit formation, flexible criteria categorization properties and analyzed the resulting behavior (consisting of an intelligent initiation of exploration) by computer simulations. While various computer vision researchers acknowledged recently the importance of active processes (Swain and Stricker, 1991), the proposed approaches within the new framework still suffer from a lack of self-organization (Aloimonos and Bandyopadhyay, 1987; Bajcsy, 1988). A self-organizing, neural network based robot (MAVIN) has been recently proposed (Baloch and Waxman, 1991). This robot has the capability of position, size rotation invariant pattern categorization, recognition and pavlovian conditioning. Our robot does not have initially invariant processing properties. The reason for this is the emphasis we put on active exploration. We maintain the point of view that such invariant properties emerge from an internalization of exploratory sensory-motor activity. Rather than coding the equilibria of such mental capabilities, we are seeking to capture its dynamics to understand on the one hand how the emergence of such invariances is possible and on the other hand the dynamics that lead to these invariances. The second point is crucial for an adaptive robot to acquire new invariances in non-stationary environments, as demonstrated by the inverting glass experiments of Helmholtz. We will introduce Pavlovian conditioning circuits in our future work for the precise objective of achieving the generation, coordination, and internalization of sequence of actions.

Ogmen, H.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Simple systems that exhibit self-directed replication

Biological experience and intuition suggest that self-replication is an inherently complex phenomenon, and early cellular automata models support that conception. More recently, simpler computational models of self-directed replication called sheathed loops have been developed. It is shown here that 'unsheathing' these structures and altering certain assumptions about the symmetry of their components leads to a family of nontrivial self-replicating structures some substantially smaller and simpler than those previously reported. The dependence of replication time and transition function complexity on initial structure size, cell state symmetry, and neighborhood are examined. These results support the view that self-replication is not an inherently complex phenomenon but rather an emergent property arising from local interactions in systems that can be much simpler than is generally believed.

Reggia, James A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Comprehensive system models: Strategies for evaluation

The task of evaluating comprehensive earth system models is vast involving validations of every model component at every scale of organization, as well as tests of all the individual linkages. Even the most detailed evaluation of each of the component processes and the individual links among them should not, however, engender confidence in the performance of the whole. The integrated earth system is so rich with complex feedback loops, often involving components of the atmosphere, oceans, biosphere, and cryosphere, that it is certain to exhibit emergent properties very difficult to predict from the perspective of a narrow focus on any individual component of the system. Therefore, a substantial share of the task of evaluating comprehensive earth system models must reside at the level of whole system evaluations. Since complete, integrated atmosphere/ ocean/ biosphere/ hydrology models are not yet operational, questions of evaluation must be addressed at the level of the kinds of earth system processes that the models should be competent to simulate, rather than at the level of specific performance criteria. Here, we have tried to identify examples of earth system processes that are difficult to simulate with existing models and that involve a rich enough suite of feedbacks that they are unlikely to be satisfactorily described by highly simplified or toy models. Our purpose is not to specify a checklist of evaluation criteria but to introduce characteristics of the earth system that may present useful opportunities for model testing and, of course, improvement.

Field, Christopher↗

NASA NTRS1998

Vortex/Body Interaction and Sound Generation in Low-Speed Flow

The problem of sound generation by vortices interacting with an arbitrary body in a low-speed flow has been investigated by the method of matched asymptotic expansions. For the purpose of this report, it is convenient to divide the problem into three parts. In the first part the mechanism of the vortex/body interaction, which is essentially the inner solution in the inner region, is examined. The trajectories for a system of vortices rotating about their centroid are found to undergo enormous changes after interaction; from this, some interesting properties emerged. In the second part, the problem is formulated, the outer solution is found, matching is implemented, and solutions for acoustic pressure are obtained. In the third part, Fourier integrals are evaluated and predicated results presented. An examination of these results reveals the following: (a) the background noise can be either augmented or attenuated by a body after interaction, (b) sound generated by vortex/body interaction obeys a scaling factor, (C) sound intensity can be reduced substantially by positioning the vortex system in the "favorable" side of the body instead of the "unfavorable" side, and (d) acoustic radiation from vortex/bluff-body interaction is less than that from vortex/airfoil interaction under most circumstances.

Kao, Hsiao C.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A Role for MST Neurons in Heading Estimation

A template model of human visual self-motion perception (Perrone, JOSA, 1992; Perrone & Stone, Vis. Res., in press), which uses neurophysiologically realistic "heading detectors", is consistent with numerous human psychophysical results (Warren & Hannon, Nature, 1988; Stone & Perrone, Neuro. Abstr., 1991) including the failure of humans to estimate their heading (direction of forward translation) accurately under certain visual conditions (Royden et al., Nature, 1992). We tested the model detectors with stimuli used by others in- single-unit studies. The detectors showed emergent properties similar to those of MST neurons: 1) Sensitivity to non-preferred flow. Each detector is tuned to a specific combination of flow components and its response is systematically reduced by the addition of nonpreferred flow (Orban et al., PNAS, 1992), and 2) Position invariance. The detectors maintain their apparent preference for particular flow components over large regions of their receptive fields (e.g. Duffy & Wurtz, J. Neurophys., 1991; Graziano et al., J. Neurosci., 1994). It has been argued that this latter property is incompatible with MST playing a role in heading perception. The model however demonstrates how neurons with the above response properties could still support accurate heading estimation within extrastriate cortical maps.

Stone, Leland Scott↗

NASA NTRS1994

A Role for MST Neurons in Heading Estimation

A template model of human visual self-motion perception, which uses neurophysiologically realistic "heading detectors", is consistent with numerous human psychophysical results including the failure of humans to estimate their heading (direction of forward translation) accurately under certain visual conditions. We tested the model detectors with stimuli used by others in single-unit studies. The detectors showed emergent properties similar to those of MST neurons: (1) Sensitivity to non-preferred flow; Each detector is tuned to a specific combination of flow components and its response is systematically reduced by the addition of nonpreferred flow, and (2) Position invariance; The detectors maintain their apparent preference for particular flow components over large regions of their receptive fields. It has been argued that this latter property is incompatible with MST playing a role in heading perception. The model however demonstrates how neurons with the above response properties could still support accurate heading estimation within extrastriate cortical maps.

Stone, L. S.↗