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DOE OSTI2021

A Multilevel Approach To Addressing Emerging Technologies In Nuclear Security

Emerging technologies present a unique set of challenges to operators and regulators. Although emerging technologies can be used to strengthen nuclear security systems, they also can increase risks to nuclear facilities. The disruptive nature of emerging technologies could also leave operators unprepared for threats to nuclear materials or facilities. To address the potentially dangerous consequences associated with these innovations, strong adaptive mechanisms and international cooperation on threat mitigation and technological integration are vital. This paper examines the nuclear security implications of emerging technologies from an institutional (as opposed to technology-specific) perspective. Drawing on insights from a recent workshop series hosted by the Stimson Center and the National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Global Material Security, as well as research funded by Global Material Security and separate research conducted by Stimson, the paper begins with a definition of emerging technology that bounds the scope of the problem while leaving some margin for expert interpretation. The subsequent sections highlight the challenges as well as potential benefits that these technologies pose at each level of the nuclear security establishment, from the operators of sites hosting radiological or nuclear material, to regulators and national policy makers, to international institutions. Each section also includes specific recommendations for incorporating emerging technologies into radiological and nuclear security planning.

Andrews, Ian↗

DOE OSTI2021

When should we care about new technology in the nuclear domain? Assessing emerging technologies impacts on stability

As new and modernized systems are fielded by the U.S. and Russia, and as China expands its nuclear stockpile with 21st century technology, it is important to ask when do new technologies in the nuclear domain actually matter? When do emerging capabilities and replacements of existing systems change the military realities of the world’s nuclear powers and the lived experiences of the people in these countries? Specifically, it is important to consider what are the attributes of emerging weapon systems that may impact nuclear strategic stability, or in even narrower terms, which attributes of newly fielded military systems may make nuclear conflict more likely or less likely? It is through this understanding that policy makers, voters, and the broader nuclear weapons community can evaluate when and how to respond to emerging technology while reducing the likelihood of nuclear escalation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2022

Adapting to a Changing World: Managing the Promise and Peril of Emerging Technologies and the Nuclear Nexus [Slides]

The Promise and Peril of Emerging Technologies: New and emerging technologies offer countless advances for just above everything; They also have the potential to be used for more destructive purposes; These technologies remain largely ungoverned by laws or norms; and, The nexus of emerging technologies with nuclear threats demands special attention. Overview, questions: How should we be thinking about these issues? What can we do to reduce the risk that accidents or miscalculation will lead to inadvertent escalation—especially at the nuclear nexus? This talk will examine emerging threats, the state of play of international discussions on these issues, and offer recommendations for the future.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2026

Controversy and consensus: common ground and best practices for life cycle assessment of emerging technologies

This manuscript explores six controversial topics regarding LCA of emerging technologies: (1) appropriate use of LCA, (2) uncertainty assessment, (3) comparison with incumbents, (4) adopting standards, (5) system scale-up, and (6) stakeholder engagement. These topics encompass key issues vigorously debated during a series of workshop-style discussions convened by the LCA of Emerging Technologies Research Network (currently hosted by ACLCA). This paper represents the main points of support and opposition for a declarative resolution representing each topic, along with points of consensus, held amongst research network of LCA practitioners and experts. These debates and associated open questions are intended to build awareness amongst practitioners and decision-makers of the common challenges associated with assessing emerging technologies, while fostering evidence-based and context-informed discussions that are both transparent and impactful for the broader community.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Adapting to a Changing World: Managing the Promise and Peril of Emerging Technologies and the Nuclear Nexus

This paper is focused on emerging technologies in three areas: outer space, cyberspace, and artificial intelligence. Technologies in each of these areas share a number of characteristics that make them a challenge for legally-binding approaches to arms control. For example, they each have significant definitional challenges. They are also dual use and within the reach of non-state actors. Verifying compliance with any legally-binding agreements in these areas poses significant challenges, at least at this time. Moreover, the rapid pace of technological change also contributes to the difficulty of crafting legally-binding arms control measures. The United States has generally championed a more normative approach to the governance of emerging technologies—the idea being that international agreement on norms serves as the basis for collective action to respond to activities that deviate from those norms.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emerging Technologies Review: Carbon Capture and Conversion to Methane and Methanol

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Building a Prospective LCA Framework to Analyze Emerging Technologies in a Dynamic System Context

NREL's Lifecycle Analysis Integration into Opensource Numerical models (LiAISON) framework computes temporally explicit life cycle impacts and resource uses for specific technologies (foreground) in a dynamic system context (background). LiAISON computes results for a series of environmental mid-points enabling an analysis of prospective tradeoffs of emerging technologies toward 2100. This prospective feature is of critical importance when analyzing present-day emerging technologies whose large-scale impacts during deployment phases will occur in different, future system contexts. LiAISON systematically accounts for dynamic system changes by applying an integrated background of the future energy-economy-land-climate system, generated by exogenous integrated assessment models (IAMs). Using IAM scenarios, LiAISON generates a time-series of life cycle inventory (LCI) databases, which are then used to calculate the impacts per functional unit per time step. This expands current practice of using static, future system assumptions, e.g., a specific grid-mix each year. Further, IAM scenarios are provided in a standardized format of shared-socioeconomic pathways (SSP) and representative concentration pathways (RCP) combinations. These are coherent, regularly, published, and peer-reviewed scenario combinations that establish a reproducible and standardized societal and climate mitigation futures context. They are comparable across IAMs and expand the system boundary of the traditional LCA by including dimensions such as societal and behavioral changes. We apply the framework to assess two emerging Power-to-Hydrogen processes, high temperature electrolysis using solid oxide fuel cell (HT-SOE) and polymer electrolyte membrane electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline Hydrogen production process via steam methane reforming. Despite the decarbonized electricity systems' beneficial effects on the PtH2 processes' carbon intensities, we find environmental tradeoffs, which require technology improvements via learning-by-doing to be alleviated. Future work via ongoing collaborations will focus on linking the framework to other energy-economy-land-climate models and open-source life cycle inventory databases.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Inducing the adoption of emerging technologies for sustainable intensification of food and renewable energy production: insights from applied economics

Emerging advances in sustainable intensification technologies have the potential to transform land use and crop management approaches in ways that can increase resource productivity and reduce adverse environmental impacts of agricultural production. This paper describes emerging technologies that can sustainably intensify food and renewable energy production. We apply the findings from studies examining the adoption of technologies with similar stylized features to provide insights about the incentives and barriers for the adoption of these emerging technologies. We also present a landscape-based systems approach, based on welfare economics, to go beyond relying on a positive approach to explain observed adoption decisions to examining normative questions about the optimal mix, level, and location of adoption of these technologies to achieve desired societal outcomes. Here, we conclude with a discussion of the insights from applied economics for the design of policy incentives to achieve these outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Emerging Technologies Review: Pumped Storage Hydropower

The Air Force Civil Engineer Center (AFCEC) has tasked Pacific Northwest National Laboratory with investigating emerging technologies to inform the Air Force’s understanding of the technology and to guide key considerations for implementing technologies that are resilient and alternative sources to the traditional methods used in the Air Force today. This report explores pumped storage hydropower. Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) currently provides 93% of grid-scale storage capacity (MW) and 99% of electrical energy storage (MWh) in the United States. PSH exploits the potential energy that can be stored by pumping water to higher elevations or pressures to be dispatched when needed. In its simplest form, PSH uses energy to pump water to an upper reservoir for storage, then releases this water through a turbine and generator into a lower reservoir when needed for energy generation. This report provides a thorough technology description, technical considerations, siting considerations, economic/funding considerations associated with the technology. A Regulatory overview and risks associated with the technology are also included in the report.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emerging Technologies Review: Hydrogen Production and Storage

The Air Force Civil Engineer Center has tasked Pacific Northwest National Laboratory with investigating emerging technologies to inform the Air Force’s understanding of the technology and to guide key considerations for implementing technologies that are resilient and alternative sources to the traditional methods used in the Air Force today. This report explores the concept of hydrogen production and storage at Air Force installations.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Emerging Technologies Review: Water Microgrid

Project 69643 Task 10 - The Air Force Civil Engineer Center has tasked Pacific Northwest National Laboratory with investigating emerging technologies to inform the Air Force’s understanding of the technology and to guide key considerations for implementing technologies that are resilient and alternative sources to the traditional methods used in the Air Force today. This report explores the concept of a water microgrid for deployment at Air Force installations. A water microgrid is a local water system that supplies, treats, and distributes water, with the primary objective to meet mission critical water demand during a disruption of the primary supply. A water microgrid can advance an Air Force installation’s water infrastructure and water resilience by being at the ready for meeting critical missions during a utility outage.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Emerging Technologies Review: Small Modular Reactors

Project 69643 Task 10 - The Air Force Civil Engineer Center has tasked Pacific Northwest National Laboratory with investigating emerging technologies to inform the Air Force’s understanding of the technology and to guide key considerations for implementing technologies that are resilient and alternative sources to the traditional methods used in the Air Force today. This report provides information about small modular reactor (SMR) technology; the components; and the technological, political, regulatory, economic, environmental, operational, and social considerations using existing, publicly available information from government, international, vendor, and Air Force sources.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Convergence of Emerging Technologies - EAGL Test Information

The Emergency Automatic Gunshot Detection and Lockdown (EAGL) system provides automatic, autonomous, and timely gunshot detection in both indoor and outdoor environments. This system uses both wired and wireless devices. Self-contained wireless EAGL sensors passively “listen” for gunshot events. These devices also perform a single, daily supervisory heartbeat (HB) function to include a device self-check with reporting capability. Transmissions are received by an assigned EAGL Gateway, which translates the RF sensor data to a PoE network format solely for use by the EAGL system server. The server then performs additional processes after data receipt, which include but are not limited to: event validation and logging, GUI presentation, notifications, and other independent operations.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cross-sectoral impact of emerging technologies on U.S. manufacturing resilience and competitiveness

Introducing new technologies in one energy-intensive industry can affect how other industries operate and stay resilient, yet these cross-sector interactions are often underappreciated in conventional technology roadmaps. In practice, industrial systems do not evolve in isolation. They are linked through shared upstream and downstream dependencies, such as electricity and fuel supply, critical materials, transportation networks, and enabling infrastructure. As a result, large-scale technology deployment in one sector can reshape resource availability, infrastructure demand, and operational risk in others. These interdependencies mean that technology deployment decisions in one sector can create unintended bottlenecks or cascading benefits in others. Here, this article argues that a cross-sector, system-of-systems perspective is essential for evaluating and scaling emerging technologies in energy-intensive industries. By framing industrial transformation as an interconnected systems challenge rather than a set of isolated sectoral decisions, the study highlights how interdependence shapes technology feasibility, adoption pathways, and resilience outcomes. The article illustrates how cross-sector linkages can amplify both risks and benefits, and it emphasizes the importance of integrated planning approaches that account for shared dependencies, cascading impacts, and co-optimization opportunities. Adopting this broader perspective can support more robust technology roadmaps, improve strategic coordination across industries, and strengthen the long-term resilience of the industrial sector as a whole.

Nain, Preeti [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Techno-Economic Analysis and Life-Cycle Assessment of Emerging Technologies for Bioprocessing Separations

Limited availability, rising costs, and environmental concerns about fossil fuels have generated considerable interest in finding alternative, renewable sources including biomass, which can be converted into a number of biofuels and bioproducts. In comparison to petroleum-based products, high processing costs, mainly associated with bioprocessing separations, limit widespread implementation of biofuels and bioproducts. Bioprocess-related separations are also complicated, regardless of the conversion pathway, due to the dilute nature of products and the chemically complex mixtures that result from biomass deconstruction. In many cases, bioprocessing separation approaches lack a technology baseline, or definition of the state of technology (SOT). This work focuses on evaluating the technology readiness of novel separations technologies for the conversion of biomass into biofuels and bioproducts and will address three key topics: 1) SOT description, 2) economic viability analysis of both SOT and innovative separations, and 3) environmental impact assessment of both SOT and novel processes. The current SOT for lignin valorization, dilute carbon recovery, and impurity removal is used to identify potential opportunities for improvement and provide a baseline for comparison with the emerging technologies. Detailed techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) are applied to understand the key drivers and challenges related to the economic feasibility and environmental impacts, respectively.

BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES,BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emergency Management of Tomorrow: Emerging Technologies and Concepts

This article for the Domestic Preparedness Journal introduces the Emergency Management of Tomorrow Research Program and its role exploring artificial intelligence for emergency management and emergency operation centers in the future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The role of current and emerging technologies in meeting Japan’s mid- to long-term carbon reduction goals

Using Japan as a proxy for a developed nation, we investigated the role of existing and nascent technologies in curbing carbon emissions. We simulated possible pathways to meeting 2030 and 2050 emission targets within the Japanese electricity supply sector using a single-region model in The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES). Critically, our simulations incorporate novel technologies like hydrogen electrolysers, carbon capture, photochemical water splitting, and emerging photovoltaic cells, assess long-term impacts up to the year 2100, and include life-cycle emissions and learning curves for parameters such as investment cost, efficiency, and emission coefficients. Results indicate that a hybrid approach, using nuclear power and hydrogen from renewable energy-based electrolysis, is cost-effective and provides long-term emission reduction along with energy security. Finally, nuclear, wind, solar, and hydrogen from renewables emerge as key emission reduction technologies, while natural gas with carbon capture plays a minor role in achieving emission reduction targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Patternable Mesoporous Thin Film Quantum Materials via Block Copolymer Self-Assembly: An Emergent Technology?

Recent developments in quantum materials hold promise for revolutionizing energy and information technologies. The use of soft matter self-assembly, for example, by employing block copolymers (BCPs) as structure directing or templating agents, offers facile pathways toward quantum metamaterials with highly tunable mesostructures via scalable solution processing. Here, we report the preparation of patternable mesoporous niobium carbonitride-type thin film superconductors through spin-coating of a hybrid solution containing an amphiphilic BCP swollen by niobia sol precursors and subsequent thermal processing in combination with photolithography. Spin-coated as-made BCP-niobia hybrid thin films on silicon substrates after optional photolithographic definition are heated in air to produce a porous oxide, and subsequently converted in a multistep process to carbonitrides via treatment with high temperatures in reactive gases including ammonia. Grazing incidence small-angle X-ray scattering suggests the presence of ordered mesostructures in as-made BCP-niobia films without further annealing, consistent with a distorted alternating gyroid morphology that is retained upon thermal treatments. Wide-angle X-ray scattering confirms the synthesis of phase-pure niobium carbonitride nanocrystals with rock-salt lattices within the mesoscale networks. Electrical transport measurements of unpatterned thin films show initial exponential rise in resistivity characteristic of thermal activation in granular systems down to 12.8 K, at which point resistivity drops to zero into a superconducting state. Magnetoresistance measurements determine the superconducting upper critical field to be over 16 T, demonstrating material quality on par with niobium carbonitrides obtained from traditional solid-state synthesis methods. Here. we discuss how such cost-effective and scalable solution-based quantum materials fabrication approaches may be integrated into existing microelectronics processing, promising the emergence of a technology with tremendous academic and industrial potential by combining the capabilities of soft matter self-assembly with quantum materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗