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The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics
Abstract. Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursor compounds are known to significantly affect the energy balance of the Earth–atmosphere system, alter the formation of clouds and precipitation, and have a substantial impact on human health and the environment. Global models are an essential tool for examining the impacts of these emissions. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of model results to the assumed height of SO2 injection, seasonality of SO2 and black carbon (BC) particulate emissions, and the assumed fraction of SO2 emissions that is injected into the atmosphere as particulate phase sulfate (SO4) in 11 climate and chemistry models, including both chemical transport models and the atmospheric component of Earth system models. We find large variation in atmospheric lifetime across models for SO2, SO4, and BC, with a particularly large relative variation for SO2, which indicates that fundamental aspects of atmospheric sulfur chemistry remain uncertain. Of the perturbations examined in this study, the assumed height of SO2 injection had the largest overall impacts, particularly on global mean net radiative flux (maximum difference of −0.35 W m−2), SO2 lifetime over Northern Hemisphere land (maximum difference of 0.8 d), surface SO2 concentration (up to 59 % decrease), and surface sulfate concentration (up to 23 % increase). Emitting SO2 at height consistently increased SO2 and SO4 column burdens and shortwave cooling, with varying magnitudes, but had inconsistent effects across models on the sign of the change in implied cloud forcing. The assumed SO4 emission fraction also had a significant impact on net radiative flux and surface sulfate concentration. Because these properties are not standardized across models this is a source of inter-model diversity typically neglected in model intercomparisons. These results imply a need to ensure that anthropogenic emission injection height and SO4 emission fraction are accurately and consistently represented in global models.
Corrigendum to “The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics” published in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14779–14799, 2023
Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursor compounds are known to significantly affect the energy balance of the Earth–atmosphere system, alter the formation of clouds and precipitation, and have a substantial impact on human health and the environment. Global models are an essential tool for examining the impacts of these emissions. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of model results to the assumed height of SO 2 injection, seasonality of SO 2 and black carbon (BC) particulate emissions, and the assumed fraction of SO 2 emissions that is injected into the atmosphere as particulate phase sulfate (SO 4 ) in 11 climate and chemistry models, including both chemical transport models and the atmospheric component of Earth system models. We find large variation in atmospheric lifetime across models for SO 2 , SO 4 , and BC, with a particularly large relative variation for SO 2 , which indicates that fundamental aspects of atmospheric sulfur chemistry remain uncertain. Of the perturbations examined in this study, the assumed height of SO 2 injection had the largest overall impacts, particularly on global mean net radiative flux (maximum difference of -0.35?W?m-2), SO2 lifetime over Northern Hemisphere land (maximum difference of 0.8?d), surface SO 2 concentration (up to 59?% decrease), and surface sulfate concentration (up to 23?% increase). Emitting SO 2 at height consistently increased SO 2 and SO 4 column burdens and shortwave cooling, with varying magnitudes, but had inconsistent effects across models on the sign of the change in implied cloud forcing. The assumed SO 4 emission fraction also had a significant impact on net radiative flux and surface sulfate concentration. Because these properties are not standardized across models this is a source of inter-model diversity typically neglected in model intercomparisons. These results imply a need to ensure that anthropogenic emission injection height and SO 4 emission fraction are accurately and consistently represented in global models.
High resolution x-ray emission spectrometer for multiple hard x-ray emission lines: Demonstration for Cu Kα and Kβ emissions
In this work, we present a compact 3D printed x-ray emission spectrometer based on the von Hamos geometry that represents a significant upgrade to the existing von Hamos geometry-based miniature x-ray emission spectrometer (miniXES). The upgrades include the incorporation of a higher pixel density 500K detector for improved energy resolution and an enlarged sample area to accommodate a wider range of sample formats. The versatile spectrometer houses removable crystal holders that can be easily exchanged, as well as movable alignment eyelets that give flexibility in Bragg angle selection. Designed for ease of manufacture, all the components, except for the apertures, can be 3D printed and readily assembled. We describe its implementation in measurements of resonant and non-resonant Cu Kα and Kβ x-ray emission and report the theoretical and measured energy resolution and collected solid angle of the emission.
The effect of building retrofit measures on CO2 emission reduction – A case study with U.S. Medium office buildings
Building retrofit has great potential to reduce CO2 emissions since buildings are responsible for 36% of emissions in the United States. Several existing studies have examined the effect of building retrofit measures on CO2 emission reduction. However, these studies oversimplified emission factors of electricity by adopting constant annual emission factors. This study uses hourly emission factors of electricity to analyze the effect of building retrofit measures on emission reduction using U.S. medium office buildings as an example. We analyzed CO2 emission reduction effects of eight building retrofit measures that related to envelop and mechanical system in five locations: Tampa, San Diego, Denver, Great Falls, and International Falls. The main findings are: (1) estimating CO2 emission reduction with constant emission factors overestimates the emission reduction for most measures in San Diego, while it underestimates the emission reduction for most measures in Denver and International Falls; (2) The same retrofit measure may have different effects in CO2 emission reduction depending on the climates. For instance, improving lighting efficiency and improving equipment efficiency have less impacts in emission reduction in cold climates than hot climates; and (3) The most energy efficient measure may not be the most emission efficient measure. For example, in Great Falls, the most energy efficient measure is improving equipment efficiency, but the most emission efficient measure is improving heating efficiency.
A global anthropogenic emission inventory of atmospheric pollutants from sector- and fuel-specific sources (1970–2017): an application of the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)
Global anthropogenic emission inventories remain vital for understanding the sources of atmospheric pollution and the associated impacts on the environment, human health, and society. Rapid changes in today's society require that these inventories provide contemporary estimates of multiple atmospheric pollutants with both source sector and fuel type information to understand and effectively mitigate future impacts. To fill this need, we have updated the open-source Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) (Hoesly et al., 2019) to develop a new global emission inventory, CEDSGBD-MAPS. This inventory includes emissions of seven key atmospheric pollutants (NOx; CO; SO2; NH3; non-methane volatile organic compounds, NMVOCs; black carbon, BC; organic carbon, OC) over the time period from 1970–2017 and reports annual country-total emissions as a function of 11 anthropogenic sectors (agriculture; energy generation; industrial processes; on-road and non-road transportation; separate residential, commercial, and other sectors (RCO); waste; solvent use; and international shipping) and four fuel categories (total coal, solid biofuel, the sum of liquid-fuel and natural-gas combustion, and remaining process-level emissions). The CEDSGBD-MAPS inventory additionally includes monthly global gridded (0.5°?×?0.5°) emission fluxes for each compound, sector, and fuel type to facilitate their use in earth system models. CEDSGBD-MAPS utilizes updated activity data, updates to the core CEDS default scaling procedure, and modifications to the final procedures for emissions gridding and aggregation. Relative to the previous CEDS inventory (Hoesly et al., 2018), these updates extend the emission estimates from 2014 to 2017 and improve the overall agreement between CEDS and two widely used global bottom-up emission inventories. The CEDSGBD-MAPS inventory provides the most contemporary global emission estimates to date for these key atmospheric pollutants and is the first to provide global estimates for these species as a function of multiple fuel types and source sectors. Dominant sources of global NOx and SO2 emissions in 2017 include the combustion of oil, gas, and coal in the energy and industry sectors as well as on-road transportation and international shipping for NOx. Dominant sources of global CO emissions in 2017 include on-road transportation and residential biofuel combustion. Dominant global sources of carbonaceous aerosol in 2017 include residential biofuel combustion, on-road transportation (BC only), and emissions from the waste sector. Global emissions of NOx, SO2, CO, BC, and OC all peak in 2012 or earlier, with more recent emission reductions driven by large changes in emissions from China, North America, and Europe. In contrast, global emissions of NH3 and NMVOCs continuously increase between 1970 and 2017, with agriculture as a major source of global NH3 emissions and solvent use, energy, residential, and the on-road transport sectors as major sources of global NMVOCs. Due to similar development methods and underlying datasets, the CEDSGBD-MAPS emissions are expected to have consistent sources of uncertainty as other bottom-up inventories. The CEDSGBD-MAPS source code is publicly available online through GitHub: https://github.com/emcduffie/CEDS/tree/CEDS_GBD-MAPS (last access: 1 December 2020). The CEDSGBD-MAPS emission inventory dataset (both annual country-total and monthly global gridded files) is publicly available under https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3754964 (McDuffie et al., 2020c).
Spatial heterogeneity analysis of the effects of urbanization on airport CO2 emissions in China - A geographically weighted approach using nighttime light data
Regional disparities in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from airports at the city level are of increasing importance for low-carbon development of the civil aviation sector. However, CO2 emissions from airport operations have rarely been estimated and discussed. We investigate the main driving forces of airport CO2 emissions by using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models, separately, to investigate whether urbanization drives airport CO2 emissions and to investigate spatial heterogeneity at the city level. Nighttime light (NTL) data from satellite observations are adopted as a proxy for urbanization. We obtained energy consumption data by end-use purpose for 70 airports in China and calculated the CO2 emissions from on-ground airport operations. The median CO2 emissions of the 70 sample airports are estimated to be 15.9 million tonnes for 2015. Results from the GWR model indicate that airport CO2 emissions are affected by five main factors: urbanization, foreign direct investment, the share of tertiary industry in gross domestic output, passenger turnover of civil aviation and passenger turnover of railways. The elasticity of urbanization shows an increasing trend from the east of China to the west. The spatial heterogeneity of the CO2 emissions of the five airport clusters that are located in five urban agglomerations is discussed. In order to achieve effective reductions of CO2 emissions from airports, policy-makers should consider the spatial heterogeneity of the major driving factors of carbon emissions in different regions to avoid carbon lock-in.
Enhancing and Extinguishing the Different Emission Features of 2D (EA(1-)(x)FA(x))(4)Pb3Br10 Perovskite Films
2D hybrid perovskites are attractive for optoelectronic devices. In thin films, the color of optical emission and the texture of crystalline domains are often difficult to control. Here, a method for extinguishing or enhancing different emission features is demonstrated for the family of 2D Ruddlesden-Popper perovskites (EA(1-)(x)FA(x))(4)Pb3Br10 (EA = ethylammonium, FA = formamidinium). When grown from aqueous hydrobromic acid, crystals of (EA(1-)(x)FA(x))(4)Pb3Br10 retain all the emission features of their parent compound, (EA)(4)Pb3Br10. Surprisingly, when grown from dimethylformamide (DMF), an emission feature, likely self-trapped exciton (STE), near 2.7 eV is missing. Extinction of this feature is correlated with DMF being incorporated between the 2D Pb-Br sheets, forming (EA(1-)(x)FA(x))(4)Pb3Br10 center dot(DMF)(y). Without FA, films grown from DMF form (EA)(4)Pb3Br10, retain little solvent, and have strong emission near 2.7 eV. Slowing the kinetics of film growth strengthens a different emission feature, likely a different type of STE, which is much broader and present in all compositions. Films of (EA(1-)(x)FA(x))(4)Pb3Br10 center dot(DMF)(y) have large, micron-sized domains and homogeneous orientation of the semiconducting sheets, resulting in low electronic disorder near the absorption edge. The ability to selectively strengthen or extinguish different emission features in films of (EA(1-)(x)FA(x))(4)Pb3Br10 center dot(DMF)(y) reveals a pathway to tune the emission color in these compounds.
Recovery of Natural Gas Equipment Emissions into Gas Compression Engines for the Reduction of Potential Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Since the turn of the millennium, the United States (U.S.) oil and natural gas (ONG) industry has nearly doubled its natural gas production rate. As a result, the ONG industry has recently come under increasing scrutiny for its contributions to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Consequently, various solutions to this problem have been proposed and formulated to reduce the impacts of GHG emissions on the environment. West Virginia University (WVU) have found it important to research the impacts of recovering vented gas streams into prime-mover engines. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) have granted WVU funding to research and develop a “Methane Mitigator” (M2) - a “Scalable Vent Mitigation Strategy to Simultaneously Reduce Methane Emissions and Fuel Consumption from the Compression Industry.” One of the main areas of interest for this research was the collection of emissions from natural gas equipment into a Caterpillar G3508J natural gas compression engine. The parameters being analyzed from the engine were brake-specific emissions and power output. The emissions sources considered for this research were pneumatic controllers (PCs), reciprocating compressor vents, and the engine’s open crankcase breather. The compressor vent and PC emissions were simulated using a mass flow controller (MFC) and flowed into the engine using two separate methods: (1) directly into the air intake, and (2) through a retrofitted closed crankcase ventilation system (CCV), serving as a buffer volume. The crankcase emissions were quantified without the CCV, and the impact on exhaust emissions from circulating the crankcase gases into the intake was measured. The simulated compressor vent and PC flows from the MFC had limited effect on the steady state operation of the engine and resulting performance. When the simulated flows were fed directly into the engine’s air intake, the changes within the engine’s continuous performance and emission parameters were larger but lasted for shorter durations. Conversely, when the simulated flows were fed into the CCV before entering the air intake, the changes in the engine’s performance and emission parameters were less pronounced for continuous analysis but lasted for longer durations. In either case, the continuous emission changes in both emissions and performance varied in size depending on the test scenario being run, but the cycle average changes in emissions and performance showed little impact overall compared to the engine’s baseline operation. As a result, the inclusion of a CCV shows a decrease in baseline carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq.) engine emissions (from combined exhaust and open crankcase) of almost 4%. Likewise, the CCV inclusion reduced baseline total methane (CH4) from combined exhaust and open crankcase by upwards of 16%. These atmospheric emissions only decreased further with the inclusions of collected PC and compressor vent flows. The resulting changes in time-averaged rated exhaust behavior (or lack thereof) prove that the proposed M2 system could likely be deployed at sites with modern lean-burn natural gas engines as a viable option for reducing and eliminating potential GHG sources that would have otherwise been unutilized as energy sources.
Recent intensification of winter haze in China linked to foreign emissions and meteorology
Wintertime aerosol pollution in Northern China has increased over the past several decades as anthropogenic emissions in China have increased, and has increased dramatically since the beginning of the 21st century, but the causes and their quantitative contributions remain uncertain. Here we use an aerosol source tagging capability implemented in a global aerosol-climate model to assess long-term trends of PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter) in Northern China. Our analysis suggests that increasing PM2.5 concentrations due to local emission increases within China were obscured (~13%) by foreign emission reductions between 1980–2000. As foreign emissions stabilized during 2000-2014, their counteracting effect almost disappeared, uncovering China’s pollution potential from domestic emission increases. The meteorology dominated PM2.5 trend during 1990–1996 and also uncovered the pollution potential due to decadal variations in winds. The stabilized foreign emissions together with changing meteorology explain a quarter of the larger increasing trend of PM2.5 since the beginning of the 21st century. Future foreign emissions are not expected to help hiding China’s pollution, reductions in local emissions are the efficient way to improve future air quality in Northern China.
Triple Emission of 5'-( para -R-Phenylene)vinylene-2-(2'-hydroxyphenyl)benzoxazole (PVHBO). Part I: Dual Emission from the Neutral Species
The effects of 5'-(para-R-phenylene)vinylene (PV) substituents on the emission properties of 2-(2'-hydroxyphenyl)benzoxazole (HBO) are analyzed using steady-state and time-resolved absorption and emission spectroscopies in addition to quantum chemical calculations. All members in the series of PVHBOs are capable of excited-state intramolecular proton transfer (ESIPT) with a solvent sensitivity that is typical of a HBO derivative to produce a normal (aka enol) emission and an excited-state tautomer (aka keto) emission. These two emission bands of the neutral dyes are discussed in the current paper. The intermolecular proton transfer, i.e., the deprotonation, of a PVHBO results in the third band of the triple emission, which is described in the succeeding paper. The placement of an electron-withdrawing substituent R on the PVHBO scaffold increases the intensity of the keto emission relative to the enol emission in hydrogen-bonding solvents. The R substituents do not significantly alter the wavelengths of the enol and keto emission bands, which are located in the blue and green regions, respectively, of the visible spectrum. The ultrafast time-resolved spectroscopies and quantum chemical calculations offer explanations on how the R group and the solvent affect the enol and keto emission properties (i.e., wavelength, lifetime, fluorescence quantum yield, and relative ratio of their emissions). Here, the key findings include the following: (1) the emission energies of both enol and keto forms are not sensitively dependent on the R substituent and (2) the solvent-engaged enol excited state is quenched more efficiently as the R substituent becomes more electron-withdrawing. A PVHBO acts as a fusion of HBO and stilbenoid that intersect at the hydroxyphenyl moiety. Depending on the solvent and other environmental conditions, PVHBOs may exhibit the ESIPT property of HBO or the substituent-dependent emission of stilbenoid. This paper and the succeeding article provide a photophysical model of PVHBOs to explain the wavelengths and relative abundances of the three emission bands (enol, keto, and anion) that these compounds are able to produce. Judicial selection of the environmental factors may drive the emission of a PVHBO into the spectral regions of blue, green, and, in a couple of cases, orange or red.
Much of zero emissions commitment occurs before reaching net zero emissions
Abstract We explore the response of the Earth’s coupled climate and carbon system to an idealized sequential addition and removal of CO 2 to the atmosphere, following a symmetric and continuous emissions pathway, in contrast to the discontinuous emissions pathways that have largely informed our understanding of the climate response to net zero and net negative emissions to date. We find, using both an Earth system model and an ensemble of simple climate model realizations, that warming during the emissions reduction and negative emissions phases is defined by a combination of a proportionality of warming to cumulative emissions characterized by the transient climate response to emissions (TCRE), and a deviation from that proportionality that is governed by the zero emissions commitment (ZEC). About half of the ZEC is realized before reaching zero emissions, and the ZEC thus also controls the timing between peak cumulative CO 2 emissions and peak temperature, such that peak temperature may occur before peak cumulative emissions if ZEC is negative, underscoring the importance of ZEC in climate policies aimed to limit peak warming. Thus we argue that ZEC is better defined as the committed warming relative to the expected TCRE proportionality, rather than as the additional committed warming that will occur after reaching net zero CO 2 emissions. Once established, the combined TCRE and ZEC relationship holds almost to complete removal of prior cumulative CO 2 emissions. As cumulative CO 2 emissions approach zero through negative CO 2 emissions, CO 2 concentrations drop below preindustrial values, while residual long-term climate change continues, governed by multicentennial dynamical processes.
A new process-based and scale-aware desert dust emission scheme for global climate models – Part I: Description and evaluation against inverse modeling emissions
Desert dust accounts for most of the atmosphere's aerosol burden by mass and produces numerous important impacts on the Earth system. However, current global climate models (GCMs) and land-surface models (LSMs) struggle to accurately represent key dust emission processes, in part because of inadequate representations of soil particle sizes that affect the dust emission threshold, surface roughness elements that absorb wind momentum, and boundary-layer characteristics that control wind fluctuations. Furthermore, because dust emission is driven by small-scale (~ 1 km or smaller) processes, simulating the global cycle of desert dust in GCMs with coarse horizontal resolutions (~ 100 km) presents a fundamental challenge. This representation problem is exacerbated by dust emission fluxes scaling nonlinearly with wind speed above a threshold wind speed that is sensitive to land-surface characteristics. Here, we address these fundamental problems underlying the simulation of dust emissions in GCMs and LSMs by developing improved descriptions of (1) the effect of soil texture on the dust emission threshold, (2) the effects of nonerodible roughness elements (both rocks and green vegetation) on the surface wind stress, and (3) the effects of boundary-layer turbulence on driving intermittent dust emissions. We then use the resulting revised dust emission parameterization to simulate global dust emissions in a standalone model forced by reanalysis meteorology and land-surface fields. We further propose (4) a simple methodology to rescale lower-resolution dust emission simulations to match the spatial variability of higher-resolution emission simulations in GCMs. The resulting dust emission simulation shows substantially improved agreement against regional dust emissions observationally constrained by inverse modeling. We thus find that our revised dust emission parameterization can substantially improve dust emission simulations in GCMs and LSMs.
flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions
Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from this behavior could impact estimates of required net-zero timings and negative emissions requirements to meet the Paris Agreement climate targets. However, existing ESM diagnostic experiments do not allow for direct estimation of these deviations as a function of defined emissions pathways. Here, we perform a set of climate model diagnostic experiments for the assessment of transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE), the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC), and climate reversibility metrics in an emissions-driven framework. The emissions-driven experiments provide consistent independent variables simplifying simulation, analysis and interpretation, with emissions rates more comparable to recent levels than existing protocols using model-specific compatible emissions from the CMIP DECK 1pctCO2 experiment, where emissions rates tend to increase during the experiment, such that at the time of CO2 doubling in year 70, emissions are much greater than present-day values. A base experiment, “esm-flat10”, has constant emissions of CO2 of 10 GtC per year (near-present-day values), and initial results show that the TCRE estimated in this experiment is about 0.1 K less than that obtained using 1pctCO2. A subset of ESMs exhibit land carbon sinks that saturate during this experiment. A branch experiment, esm-flat10-zec, illustrates that both positive and negative ZEC effects are less pronounced under esm-flat10 than under 1pctCO2 – the magnitude of ZEC50 in ESMs is, on average, reduced by 30 % compared with 1pctCO2 branch experiments. A final experiment, esm-flat10-cdr, assesses climate reversibility under negative emissions, where we find that peak warming may occur before or after net zero and that the asymmetry in temperature at a given level of cumulative emissions between the positive and negative emissions phases is well described by ZEC in most models. Further, we find that existing probabilistic simple climate model (SCM) ensembles tend to overestimate temperature reversibility compared with ESMs, highlighting the need for additional constraints. We propose a set of climate diagnostic indicators to quantify various aspects of climate reversibility. These experiments were suggested as potential candidates in CMIP7 and have since been adopted as “fast track” simulations.
Increasing methane emissions from natural land ecosystems due to sea-level rise
Because methane (CH4) is currently the second most important greenhouse gas, it is important to accurately quantify CH4 emissions from terrestrial ecosystems. Different from many current modelling studies which focus on how CH4 emissions respond to a variety of environmental factors in land ecosystems, we analyzed how methane emitted from lands responded to sea-level increase (SLR) in this study. To do so, a large-scale surface water routing module was incorporated into our existing CH4 model and we designed an efficient simulation protocol to capture small variations in inundation extent due to SLR. Both the annual maximum inundation extent and CH4 emissions showed a steadily growing trend, increasing 1.21 × 105 km2 and 3.13 Tg CH4 /yr globally, respectively, in a 22-year SLR experiment during 1993-2014. Most of new inundation and methane source areas were located near rivers’ deltas and along the downstream reaches of rivers. The increase in inundation extent is primarily influenced by precipitation, channel geomorphic characteristics and topography of riverside area. The growth of CH4 emissions due to the SLR is largely determined by inundation extent but other factors such as temperature and carbon storage also played the important roles. Although the current SLR-induced increases in inundation extent and CH4 emissions only accounted for 1.0% and 1.3% of their global totals, they took 7.0% and 17.3% of the mean annual variability in both, respectively, during the study period. Considering SLR has a long-term but stable increasing trend, future SLR under potential climate change could play a more important role in evaluating dynamic of CH4 emissions.
Creating Accurate Methane Emission Inventories through Data-Driven Airborne Survey Strategies
Because natural gas emits less carbon than other fossil fuels, it holds promise as a green energy transition fuel. However, the overall carbon footprint of natural gas is significantly elevated by methane emissions that occur during its production and transmission (Cusworth et al. 2022). Methane “super-emitters,†while comprising only about 1% of sites, are responsible for the majority of oil- and gas-sourced methane emissions, making their detection and mitigation critical in reducing the climate impact of natural gas and in meeting national and global sustainability goals (Sherwin et al. 2024). Yet, despite advancements in detection, significant uncertainties remain regarding the size, frequency, and duration distributions of methane emissions (e.g., Frankenberg et al. 2016, Cusworth et al. 2022, Chen, Sherwin et al. 2022, Conrad et al. 2023, Johnson et al. 2023, Sherwin et al. 2024) underscoring the need for comprehensive emissions inventories segmented by basin across the US. Airborne surveys are well-suited for collecting data to build these comprehensive, basin-level inventories because they allow for extensive spatial coverage, and have the spatial resolution, and the sensitivity to pinpoint individual methane sources. As remote sensing technologies enable rapid basin-scale surveys, it is imperative to establish scientifically and statistically robust standards to generate reliable and actionable emissions inventories. Recent work has shown that differences in airborne sampling strategies, detection technologies, and analysis can lead to large differences between survey conclusions if not correctly accounted for (Chen et al. 2024). This elevates the importance of incorporating proper sampling and analysis techniques when designing a methane emissions monitoring campaign to produce accurate results and facilitate cross-study comparisons. In this paper, we describe a survey strategy designed using the latest conclusions from the literature to align results from different aerial surveys. We identify several sampling and analysis principles, including large sample sizes, balanced sampling across oil and gas production, careful survey area definition, and a unified protocol for analysis, to be vital to producing an unbiased estimate of basin-scale emissions. We present results from a Department of Energy-funded project that deployed this survey strategy in two understudied oil and gas- producing regions in the United States: the Haynesville Basin in Texas and Louisiana, and the Woodford Shale in the Anadarko Basin in Oklahoma.
Land management change greatly impacts biofuels’ greenhouse gas emissions
Harvesting corn stover for biofuel production may decrease soil organic carbon (SOC) and increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Adding additional organic matter into soil or reducing tillage intensity, however, could potentially offset this SOC loss. Here, by using SOC and life cycle analysis (LCA) models, we evaluated the impacts of land management change (LMC), i.e., stover removal, organic matter addition, and tillage on spatially explicit SOC level and biofuels’ overall life-cycle GHG emissions in U.S. corn-soybean production systems. Results indicate that under conventional tillage (CT), 30% stover removal (dry weight) may reduce SOC by 0.04 t C ha-1yr-1 over a 30-year simulation period. Growing a cover crop during the fallow season or applying manure, on the other hand, could add to SOC and further reduce biofuels’ life-cycle GHG emissions. With 30% stover removal in a CT system, cover crop and manure application can increase SOC at the national level by about 0.06 and 0.02 t C ha-1yr-1, respectively, compared to cases without such measures. With contributions from this SOC increase, the life-cycle GHG emissions for stover ethanol are more than 80% lower than those of gasoline, exceeding the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard mandate of 60% emissions reduction for cellulosic biofuels. Reducing tillage intensity while removing stover could also limit SOC loss or lead to SOC gain, which would lower stover ethanol life-cycle GHG emissions to near or under the mandated 60% reduction. Without these organic matter inputs or reduced tillage intensity, however, the emissions will not meet this mandate. More efforts are still required to further identify key practical LMCs, improve SOC modeling, and accounting for LMCs in biofuel LCAs that incorporate stover removal.