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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

The DREAM approach to demand-side emissions reductions in Indonesia, 2020–2060

Indonesia’s current energy system modeling is heavily focused on the supply side, but emissions reductions in the demand sector have a significant impact on advancing Indonesia’s ambitious emissions reductions goals. To address the gap, we develop a new modeling tool DREAM Indonesia based on a bottom-up, technology-rich demand side framework and formulate projections of demand-side emissions reductions in Indonesia in 2020–2060. We find that demand-side energy efficiency and electrification can halve the growth rate of final energy demand to 1.4% annually over 2020–2060 and reverse the growing trend of emissions. The feasibility of full electrification by 2060, coupled with rapid adoption of existing technologies, positions the building sector as a model for achievable decarbonization and a cornerstone of Indonesia’s emissions reductions ambitions. In the industrial sector, extensive emissions reductions of 87% by 2060 (compared to business-as-usual) are achievable through energy efficiency improvements, alongside enhanced material efficiency measures including optimized material usage, low-carbon substitutions, innovative technologies, and increased circularity. In the transportation sector, balancing final energy demand by incorporating energy efficiency improvements across all transport modes, along with electrification particularly in road transportation, could decrease the emissions by up to 82% in 2060 compared to business-as-usual. This study provides insights and modeling approaches for rapidly growing Asian economies as well as other developing countries facing combined development and decarbonization challenges.

DREAM Indonesia↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adoption of Plug-in Electric Vehicles: Local Fuel Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions Across the U.S.

The dependence on gasoline-powered light-duty automobiles has made U.S. households vulnerable to the burden of fuel costs. Tailpipe emissions from these vehicles constitute 58% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the U.S., which are damaging to the environment (EPA, 2023). The adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) has been shown to effectively reduce fuel costs and GHG emissions. However, local effects on these benefits are not well understood by American consumers, potentially limiting adoption and therefore the realization of PEV benefits at scale (MacInnis & Krosnick, 2020; EY Americas, 2023). To fill this research gap, this study estimates the fuel cost savings and GHG emission reductions at the state and ZIP code levels by considering local fuel prices, vehicle class preference, average vehicle model year, fuel efficiencies, and driving intensities. The study's findings reveal that the adoption of PEVs can yield substantial benefits in terms of fuel cost savings and GHG emission reductions nationwide. Specifically, driving a battery electric vehicle (BEV) is estimated to result in annual savings of up to $\$2,200$, while driving a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) can lead to savings up to $\$1,500$, when compared to an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) of equivalent size. Moreover, using population-weighted averages by ZIP code, BEVs and PHEVs show the potential to save 400 and 200 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per mile, respectively, compared to a representative ICEV of the same class. The magnitude of fuel cost savings and emissions reduction vary by region due to various factors. Generally, regions with high gasoline prices, low electricity prices, preferences for larger vehicles, and high driving intensities tend to see relatively large fuel savings. The emissions reductions are more pronounced in areas with clean grids where consumer preferences lie with large vehicles. This regional variability underscores the importance of considering local contextual factors when assessing the potential benefits of PEV adoption. In more than 99% of U.S. ZIP codes, PEVs result in overall savings in fuel use (and subsequent costs) and GHG emissions. While not a central focus of this analysis, reductions in GHG tailpipe emissions from PEV adoption would also come with reductions in criteria pollutant emissions, contributing to improved local air quality depending on the PEV penetration, population density, and electricity generation infrastructure in the locality.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Xcel Energy’s electric carbon emissions reduction trajectories in the context of 1.5°C and 2°C warming pathways

In 2015 the Paris Agreement established the goals of limiting global average warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit warming to below 1.5°C. A large and growing number of scenarios have been developed by the climate research community that explore global energy and emissions pathways that would achieve those goals. We draw on the most recent database of such scenarios to update a previous analysis of Xcel Energy’s emissions reduction goals in light of evolving climate science. We assess the outlook for the role of the US electricity sector in current economy-wide and global emissions pathways and compare it to Xcel Energy’s near-term resource plans to 2030. We find that global scenarios that achieve the 1.5°C goal span a range of US/North America electricity sector emissions reductions by 2030 of about 65-85%. Xcel Energy’s emissions reductions to date have exceeded those of the US electricity sector as a whole, and its projected trajectory to 2030 under current approved resource plans falls within this range. Scenarios achieving the 2°C goal have a wider range of reductions (about 40-85%). In scenarios achieving either goal, electricity sector emissions fall faster than economy-wide emissions, a robust feature of mitigation scenarios, which typically rely on low carbon electricity to achieve climate targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increased importance of aerosol–cloud interactions for surface PM 2.5 pollution relative to aerosol–radiation interactions in China with the anthropogenic emission reductions

Surface fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) pollution can be enhanced by feedback processes induced by aerosol–radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs). Many previous studies have reported enhanced PM 2.5 concentrations induced by ARIs and ACIs for episodic events in China. However, few studies have examined the changes in the ARI- and ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancements over a long period, though the anthropogenic emissions have changed substantially in the last decade. In this study, we quantify the ARI- and ACI-induced PM 2.5 changes for 2013–2021 under different meteorology and emission scenarios using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), and we investigate the driving factors behind the changes. Our results show that, in January 2013, when China suffered from the worst PM 2.5 pollution, the PM 2.5 enhancement induced by ARIs in eastern China (5.59 µg m −3 ) was larger than that induced by ACIs (3.96 µg m −3 ). However, the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement showed a significantly smaller decrease ratio (51 %) than the ARI-induced enhancement (75 %) for 2013–2021, making ACIs more important for enhancing PM 2.5 concentrations in January 2021. Our analyses suggest that the anthropogenic emission reductions played a key role in this shift. Owing to only anthropogenic emission reductions, the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement decreased by 43 % in January, which was lower than the decrease ratio of the ARI-induced enhancement (57 %). The relative change in ARI- and ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement in July was similar to the pattern observed in January, caused by anthropogenic emission reductions. The primary reason for this phenomenon is that the decrease in ambient PM 2.5 for 2013–2021 caused a disproportionately small decrease in the liquid water path (LWP) and an increase in the cloud effective radius (Re) under the condition of high PM 2.5 concentrations. Therefore, the surface solar radiation attenuation (and, hence, the boundary layer height reduction) caused by ACIs decreased slower than that caused by ARIs. Moreover, the lower decrease ratio of the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement was dominated by the lower decrease ratio of ACI-induced secondary PM 2.5 component enhancement, which was additionally caused by the smaller decrease ratio of the air temperature reduction and the relative humidity (RH) increase. Our findings indicate that, with the decrease in ambient PM 2.5 , the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement inevitably becomes more important. This needs to be considered in the formulation of control policies to meet the national PM 2.5 air quality standard.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grid Cost and Total Emissions Reductions Through Mass Deployment of Geothermal Heat Pumps for Building Heating and Cooling Electrification in the United States

This report presents the results of a study on the potential grid impacts of national-scale mass deployment of geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) coupled with weatherization in single-family homes (SFHs) from 2022 to 2050. GHPs are a technology readiness level 10, commercially available technology across the United States. This study is an impact analysis only; installed costs and available land areas for installing GHPs are not accounted for in determining their estimated deployment. The three scenarios studied were (1) continuing to operate the grid as it is today (the Base scenario), (2) a scenario to reach 95% grid emissions reductions by 2035 and 100% clean electricity by 2050 (the Grid Decarbonization scenario), and (3) a scenario in which the Grid Decarbonization scenario is expanded to include the electrification of wide portions of the economy, including building heating (the Electrification Futures Study or EFS scenario). The analysis team modeled each of these three scenarios with and without GHP deployment to a large percentage of US building floor space. In all cases, deployment of approximately 5 million GHPs per year demonstrated system cost savings on the grid, consumer fuel cost savings through eliminated fuel combustion for space heating, and CO 2 emission reductions from avoided on-site fuel combustion—and, in the case of the Base scenario, CO 2 emissions reductions from the electric power sector. GHPs have traditionally been viewed as a building energy technology. The most notable result of this study, however, is the demonstration that GHPs coupled with weatherization in SFHs are primarily a grid cost reduction tool and technology that, when deployed at a national scale, also substantially reduces CO 2 emissions, even in the absence of any other decarbonization policy.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The path to 2060: Saudi Arabia's long-term pathway for GHG emission reduction

Saudi Arabia, as part of its Saudi Green Initiative, has announced its goal to achieve net zero green-house gas emissions by 2060. This ambitious target underscores the nation's dedication to address-ing climate change. However, there is a significant gap in comprehensive analysis regarding the long-term effects of Saudi Arabia's climate policies and their collective contribution towards the net-zero objective. This study endeavors to bridge this gap through a detailed examination using the GCAM-KSA, a specialized version of the Global Change Analysis Model tailored for Saudi Arabia, employing a multi-sectoral methodology that integrates economic, energy, and land use systems within a coherent framework to assess the impact of climate policies on GHG emissions. Our anal-ysis reveals that reaching net-zero GHG emissions by 2060 is a complex challenge requiring con-certed efforts across all sectors of the economy. While transitioning to low-carbon electricity and improving energy efficiency offer considerable emission reductions, fully decarbonizing the indus-trial and transportation sectors poses a significant hurdle. Our findings suggest that Saudi Arabia must triple its emission reduction commitments in its next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) update to align with its 2060 net-zero goal. Early action and increased ambition could avoid the chances of getting locked into the high emission assets and give enough time to transform the energy system. Furthermore, the adoption and integration of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) tech-nologies are identified as crucial for offsetting residual emissions, especially in sectors that might continue to rely on fossil fuels.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Role of Low-Carbon Fuels and Carbon Capture in Decarbonizing the U.S. Clinker Manufacturing for Cement Production: CO2 Emissions Reduction Potentials

Low-carbon fuels, feedstocks, and energy sources can play a vital role in the decarbonization of clinker production in cement manufacturing. Fuel switching with renewable natural gas, green hydrogen, and biomass can provide a low-carbon energy source for the high-temperature process heat during the pyroprocessing steps of clinker production. However, up to 60% of CO2 emissions from clinker production are attributable to process-related CO2 emissions, which will need the simultaneous implementation of other decarbonization technologies, such as carbon capture. To evaluate the potential of fuel switching and carbon capture technologies in decarbonizing the cement industry, a study of the facility-level CO2 emissions is necessary. This study evaluates the potential for using a single low-carbon fuel as an energy source in clinker production for cement manufacturing compared to conventional clinker production (which uses a range of fuel mixes). In addition, conventional carbon capture (operated with natural gas-based steam for solvent regeneration) and electrified carbon capture configurations were designed and assessed for net-zero emission targets. Carbon emissions reductions with and without biogenic emissions credits were analyzed to ascertain their impact on the overall carbon accounting. Results show that carbon emissions intensity of cement can vary from 571 to 784 kgCO2eq/metric ton of cement without carbon capture and from 166.33 to 438.66 kgCO2eq/metric ton of cement with carbon capture. We find that when biogenic carbon credits are considered, cement production with a sustainably grown biomass as fuel source coupled with conventional carbon capture can lead to a net-negative emission cement (−271 kgCO2eq/metric ton of cement), outperforming an electrified capture design (35 kgCO2eq/metric ton of cement). The carbon accounting for the Scope 1, 2, and biogenic emissions conducted in this study is aimed at helping researchers and industry partners in the cement and concrete sector make an informed decision on the choice of fuel and decarbonization strategy to adopt.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Load-Shifting Strategies for Cost-Effective Emission Reductions at Wastewater Facilities

Significant hourly variation in the carbon intensity of electricity supplied to wastewater facilities introduces an opportunity to lower emissions by shifting the timing of their energy demand. This shift could be accomplished by storing wastewater, biogas from sludge digestion, or electricity from on-site biogas generation. However, the life cycle emissions and cost implications of these options are not clear. Here, we present a multiobjective optimization framework for comparing cost- and emission-minimizing load-shifting strategies at a California case study facility with a relatively low carbon intensity grid and high spread in peak and off-peak electricity prices. We evaluate cost and emission trade-offs from the optimal flexible operation of both existing infrastructure and optimally sized energy flexibility upgrades. We estimate energy-related emission reductions of up to 9.0% with flexible operation of existing infrastructure and up to 16.8% with optimally sized storage upgrades. Only a fraction of these potential savings are realized under actual industrial energy tariffs and the EPA’s recommended social cost of carbon. Energy flexibility may hold promise as a short-term emission-saving solution for the wastewater sector, but the extent of savings is heavily dependent on the cost of carbon, electricity tariffs, and emission intensity of the regional electricity grid.

climate↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fertilizer management for global ammonia emission reduction

Crop production is a large source of atmospheric ammonia (NH 3 ), which poses risks to air quality, human health and ecosystems. However, estimating global NH 3 emissions from croplands is subject to uncertainties because of data limitations, thereby limiting the accurate identification of mitigation options and efficacy. In this report we develop a machine learning model for generating crop-specific and spatially explicit NH 3 emission factors globally (5-arcmin resolution) based on a compiled dataset of field observations. We show that global NH 3 emissions from rice, wheat and maize fields in 2018 were 4.3 ± 1.0 Tg N yr -1 , lower than previous estimates that did not fully consider fertilizer management practices. Furthermore, spatially optimizing fertilizer management, as guided by the machine learning model, has the potential to reduce the NH3 emissions by about 38% (1.6 ± 0.4 Tg N yr -1 ) without altering total fertilizer nitrogen inputs. Specifically, we estimate potential NH3 emissions reductions of 47% (44–56%) for rice, 27% (24–28%) for maize and 26% (20–28%) for wheat cultivation, respectively. Under future climate change scenarios, we estimate that NH3 emissions could increase by 4.0 ± 2.7% under SSP1–2.6 and 5.5 ± 5.7% under SSP5–8.5 by 2030–2060. However, targeted fertilizer management has the potential to mitigate these increases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Biomass Resources and Emission Reduction Potential of Agricultural and Livestock Residues in Mainland China from 2013 to 2022

Controlling carbon emissions is a global goal, and China is actively implementing carbon reduction measures. As a major agricultural nation, China has considerable potential for developing agricultural residues as renewable and environmentally friendly biomass energy. In this study, we obtained data on crop yields, crop-to-grain ratios, and livestock excretion coefficients to calculate the biomass resources of agricultural and livestock residues in Chinese provinces from 2013 to 2022. Crop residue biomass resources showed a distribution pattern with higher levels in the north than in the south and the east than in the west. Henan and Heilongjiang provinces consistently had the highest resource levels, exceeding 35 million tons annually for 10 years. The biomass resources from livestock residues were relatively abundant in Sichuan, Henan, Yunnan, Shandong, Hunan, and Inner Mongolia. Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Shandong, and Henan had the greatest potential for CO2 emission reductions, primarily located in regions abundant in biomass resources and with high traditional energy consumption levels. ArcGIS was used to apply natural break classification to categorize the potential for emission reductions from agricultural and livestock residues across China from 2013 to 2022 into five classes. Based on factors such as crop planting area and livestock numbers, the spatiotemporal distribution of factors influencing the quantity of biomass resources was examined using Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression. A tailored and integrated approach should be used for biomass, and the development of biomass energy should be promoted through policy support and technological innovation.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integration of renewable energy generation and storage systems for emissions reduction in an islanded campus microgrid

Microgrid connected building communities are projected to play an integral part in the clean energy transition. These types of systems, when integrated with distributed energy resources (DERs) such as combined heat and power (CHP), district heating and cooling, renewable generation, and energy storage, can provide clean, reliable power to critical facilities and vulnerable communities. The intermittent nature of renewable generation is a challenge when integrating renewables into any grid system, but particularly in islanded microgrids. The University of Texas at Austin (UT) operates an islanded microgrid powered by a CHP plant, while also utilizing district heating and cooling systems and thermal energy storage (TES). High fidelity operating data was used to develop a validated reduced order model of UT’s integrated campus energy systems to serve as a testbed for use in a case study. Hypothetical renewable energy installations on land owned by UT in west Texas were modeled and integrated into the validated campus models along with battery energy storage (BES). Simulations showed that a combination of renewable energy from wind, and optimally controlled 24-hour thermal and battery storage systems could reduce carbon dioxide emissions on campus by 45.4%. The additional retrofit of burner systems to utilize hydrogen natural gas blends resulted in an overall annual emissions reduction of 54.7%. Carbon capture and storage eliminated the majority of the remaining emissions with increased plant energy expenditure. The presented simulations display the practical limitations of a CHP system complemented by renewable generation and short-term storage in eliminating emissions. Furthermore, results highlight the need for further research and development in long duration storage technologies and hydrogen fueled turbines to increase penetration of renewable energy and reduce emissions.

CHP↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of US SO 2 Emission Reductions Between 1970 and 2010 on Seasonal Sulfate Aerosol Burden and Radiative Forcing Over the North Atlantic

Sulfate burden over the North Atlantic Ocean (NATL) exhibits strong seasonality despite no seasonality in anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions. However, the seasonality of sulfate aerosols over NATL has decreased since 1970, likely due to a reduction in the United States (US) SO 2 emissions following the Clean Air Act of 1970. We performed atmospheric chemistry and transport simulations to assess the impact of changing US SO 2 emissions between 1970 and 2010 on NATL sulfate burden and radiative forcing. United States SO 2 emission reductions weakened the seasonality in NATL sulfate burden by ∼17%, primarily due to a decrease in chemical production and transport in summer. These emission reductions caused a summertime radiative forcing (∼2 W m −2 ) twice as large as the wintertime forcing. Our findings highlight the complex, season-dependent responses of sulfate burden and radiative effects to regional emission changes.

North Atlantic↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ocean-Powered Oyster Tumbling: A Review of Techniques and Opportunities for Emission Reductions

Oysters perform critical roles in shoreline ecosystems by improving water quality, providing habitat for species, and preventing erosion. These ecosystem functions are present even when oysters are farmed. Because of this, and the lack of need for nutrient inputs, oyster farming is often viewed as environmentally friendly. However, fossil fuels play a large part in oyster farming practices. Fossil fuels are used to power boats, tools, and farming equipment. Oyster tumbling machines, which are used to control biofouling and produce a desirable shape and size, use a significant amount of energy and are often powered by diesel generators. As the oyster farming industry grows and practices such as integrated multi-trophic aquaculture expand, decarbonization of the industry becomes more important. One solution may be “ocean-powered” tumbling, whereby oyster grow-out gear is designed to use a range of ocean movements to tumble oysters gradually as they grow. This solution eliminates the need for fossil fuel-powered tumblers and tends to be less labor intensive. A wide range of ocean-powered gear is used by farms across the United States. New approaches and designs are being explored, making ocean-powered oyster tumbling accessible in different environments. Water movements at oyster farms are primarily driven by tidal exchange, currents, wind waves, or a combination. This paper compares methods of ocean-powered tumbling, explores the transition from standard fossil fuel-powered tumbling techniques to ocean-powered tumbling, and estimates the emission reductions of decarbonizing oyster tumbling practices.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Role of Hydrogen as Fuel in Decarbonizing US Clinker Manufacturing for Cement Production: Costs and CO2 Emissions Reduction Potentials

As a low-carbon fuel, feedstock, and energy source, hydrogen is expected to play a vital role in the decarbonization of high-temperature process heat during the pyroprocessing steps of clinker production in cement manufacturing. However, to accurately assess its potential for reducing CO2 emissions and the associated costs in clinker production applications, a techno-economic analysis and a study of facility-level CO2 emissions are necessary. Assuming that up to 20% hydrogen can be blended in clinker fuel mix without significant changes in equipment configuration, this study evaluates the potential reduction in CO2 emissions (scopes 1 and 2) and cost implications when replacing current carbon-intensive fuels with hydrogen. Using the direct energy substitution method, we developed an Excel-based model of clinker production, considering different hydrogen–blend scenarios. Hydrogen from steam methane reformer (gray) and renewable-based electrolysis (green) are considered as sources of hydrogen fuel for blend scenarios of 5%–20%. Metrics such as the cost of cement production, facility-level CO2 emissions, and cost of CO2 avoided were computed. Results show that for hydrogen blends (gray or green) between 5% and 20%, the cost of cement increases by 0.6% to 16%, with only a 0.4% to 6% reduction in CO2 emissions. When the cost of CO2 avoided was computed, the extra cost required to reduce CO2 emissions is $229 to $358/ metric ton CO2. In summary, although green hydrogen shows promise as a low-carbon fuel, its adoption for decarbonizing clinker production is currently impeded by costs.

Okeke, Ikenna J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

ELECTRIFICATION OF A HEAVY-DUTY OFF-ROAD MATERIAL HANDLER: ENERGY SAVINGS AND EMISSION REDUCTIONS

Federal regulations are driving the adoption of electrification technologies to reduce carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions, a metric that quantifies the global warming potential of various greenhouse gases in terms of carbon dioxide (CO2). Although no specific CO2 regulations exist for heavy-duty off-road machines, future reductions are likely, given stricter emissions standards for on-road vehicles. The heavy-duty off-road sector offers significant fuel-saving potential, as its focus has traditionally been on reliability and performance rather than fuel efficiency. This dissertation examines fuel and CO2e savings opportunities on a heavy-duty off-road material handler, the Pettibone Cary-Lift 204i, from stock configuration to simple modifications to a complete teardown and reconfiguration of the machine with a plug-in series hybrid architecture using electrified hydraulics. The study begins by modeling the baseline machine’s fuel and energy consumption, calibrating with experimental data from custom operating cycles. An energy analysis identifies key areas for fuel savings. Two simple powertrain modifications result in a combined 16.2% fuel savings. Next, a Pugh-style analysis narrows a list of electrified architectures, leading to high-fidelity models that evaluate total lifetime CO2e and costs. Higher electrification levels reduce CO2e emissions but increase costs, and electricity grid emissions significantly impact CO2e for plug-in architectures. A plug-in series hybrid is chosen for the project. In its base control form, 49% fuel and 29% CO2e savings are expected from the plug-in series hybrid compared to the baseline machine. Further savings are pursued through regenerative braking (6.3%) and load-following hydraulic control (17.8%), totaling 24.1% fuel savings, and leading to a total of 61% fuel and 41% CO2e savings compared to the baseline. Battery chemistries and charging strategies are also analyzed for cost and CO2e impacts, finding LFP batteries as superior due to longevity, and overnight level 2 charging usually at a lower cost but resulting in higher emissions than opportunity DC fast-charging (DCFC). DCFC emissions are highly dependent on grid emissions, and DCFC cost is highly dependent on grid demand charges. Finally, artificial intelligence is applied to operating cycle recognition. Neural network accuracy ranges from 81% to 99%, with applications to worksite efficiency and safety improvements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Greenhouse gas emissions reduction strategies that maximize portfolio-wide life cycle cost reduction, resilience, and environmental justice benefits

While strategies to achieve net-zero emissions at an individual site are well understood, new analysis methods are required for organizations seeking to achieve net-zero across multiple facilities, each with concurrent priority goals. At a portfolio level, distinct locations present varied challenges that cannot be addressed through singular solutions, and competing goals can take precedence with the assumption that net-zero emissions strategies deter from energy resilience and cost savings, therefore negatively impacting nearby communities. This study tests these assumptions by analyzing 16 diverse sites (varying in size, climate, and energy use) to identify strategies that reduce emissions and assess the impact these strategies have on life cycle costs, resilience, and communities with environmental justice concerns. Methods were developed to approximate missing information essential to net-zero evaluation. Established methods were augmented to evaluate life cycle costs, resilience, and environmental justice impacts across a set of strategies and accommodate the multi-criteria analyses. Potential benefits from identified strategies were quantified using site characteristics and a set of corresponding metrics. The net-zero analysis found that 11 sites could use on-site strategies to eliminate all but 2% of emissions generated. The remaining emissions can be offset, for instance through sequestration, executed at the portfolio scale. On-site carbon-free energy was found to reduce 51% of emissions across all sites; efficiency reduced 19% of emissions; sequestration 16%; procured carbon-free energy 15%; fuel switching 1.6%; and fleet electrification 1.3%. Building electrification, however, increased emissions by 4.4%. Different strategies also provide cost, resilience, and/or environmental justice benefits—the degree to which varies with individual site conditions. The findings indicate an advantage to considering the strategies as a comprehensive set, which leads to co-benefits, both in the ability to achieve net-zero goals and in advancing other goals. The results present the case for comprehensive advanced planning at the portfolio level to prioritize investments that will balance the minimization of emissions and life cycle cost with the maximization of resilience and environmental justice benefits. The novel methods for evaluation and integration, valuation of benefits, and consideration at the portfolio scale allow organizations to select investments that simultaneously address multiple key priorities.

Net-Zero Emissions↗