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At least 19 records

Climate and Health Impacts of US Emissions Reductions Consistent with 2 C

An emissions trajectory for the US consistent with 2 C warming would require marked societal changes, making it crucial to understand the associated benefits. Previous studies have examined technological potentials and implementation costs and public health benefits have been quantified for less-aggressive potential emissions-reduction policies, but researchers have not yet fully explored the multiple benefits of reductions consistent with 2 C. We examine the impacts of such highly ambitious scenarios for clean energy and vehicles. US transportation emissions reductions avoid approx.0.03 C global warming in 2030 (0.15 C in 2100), whereas energy emissions reductions avoid approx.0.05-0.07 C 2030 warming (approx.0.25 C in 2100). Nationally, however, clean energy policies produce climate disbenefits including warmer summers (although these would be eliminated by the remote effects of similar policies if they were undertaken elsewhere). The policies also greatly reduce damaging ambient particulate matter and ozone. By 2030, clean energy policies could prevent approx.175,000 premature deaths, with approx.22,000 (11,000-96,000; 95% confidence) fewer annually thereafter, whereas clean transportation could prevent approx.120,000 premature deaths and approx.14,000 (9,000-52,000) annually thereafter. Near-term national benefits are valued at approx.US$250 billion (140 billion to 1,050billion) per year, which is likely to exceed implementation costs. Including longer-term, worldwide climate impacts, benefits roughly quintuple, becoming approx.5-10 times larger than estimated implementation costs. Achieving the benefits, however, would require both larger and broader emissions reductions than those in current legislation or regulations.

policies↗

The DREAM approach to demand-side emissions reductions in Indonesia, 2020–2060

Indonesia’s current energy system modeling is heavily focused on the supply side, but emissions reductions in the demand sector have a significant impact on advancing Indonesia’s ambitious emissions reductions goals. To address the gap, we develop a new modeling tool DREAM Indonesia based on a bottom-up, technology-rich demand side framework and formulate projections of demand-side emissions reductions in Indonesia in 2020–2060. We find that demand-side energy efficiency and electrification can halve the growth rate of final energy demand to 1.4% annually over 2020–2060 and reverse the growing trend of emissions. The feasibility of full electrification by 2060, coupled with rapid adoption of existing technologies, positions the building sector as a model for achievable decarbonization and a cornerstone of Indonesia’s emissions reductions ambitions. In the industrial sector, extensive emissions reductions of 87% by 2060 (compared to business-as-usual) are achievable through energy efficiency improvements, alongside enhanced material efficiency measures including optimized material usage, low-carbon substitutions, innovative technologies, and increased circularity. In the transportation sector, balancing final energy demand by incorporating energy efficiency improvements across all transport modes, along with electrification particularly in road transportation, could decrease the emissions by up to 82% in 2060 compared to business-as-usual. This study provides insights and modeling approaches for rapidly growing Asian economies as well as other developing countries facing combined development and decarbonization challenges.

DREAM Indonesia↗

Connecting Regional Aerosol Emissions Reductions to Local and Remote Precipitation Responses

The unintended climatic implications of aerosol and precursor emission reductions implemented to protect public health are poorly understood. We investigate the precipitation response to regional changes in aerosol emissions using three coupled chemistry-climate models: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model 3 (GFDL-CM3), NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM1), and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2 (GISS-E2). Our approach contrasts a long present-day control simulation from each model (up to 400 years with perpetual year 2000 or 2005 emissions) with 14 individual aerosol emissions perturbation simulations (160-240 years each). We perturb emissions of sulfur dioxide and/or carbonaceous aerosol within six world regions and assess the significance of precipitation responses relative to internal variability determined by the control simulation and across the models. Global and regional precipitation mostly increases when we reduce regional aerosol emissions in the models, with the strongest responses occurring for sulfur dioxide emissions reductions from Europe and the United States. Precipitation responses to aerosol emissions reductions are largest in the tropics and project onto the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Regressing precipitation onto an Indo-Pacific zonal sea level pressure gradient index (a proxy for ENSO) indicates that the ENSO component of the precipitation response to regional aerosol removal can be as large as 20% of the total simulated response. Precipitation increases in the Sahel in response to aerosol reductions in remote regions because an anomalous interhemispheric temperature gradient alters the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This mechanism holds across multiple aerosol reduction simulations and models.

Westervelt, Daniel M.↗

A HTAP Multi-Model Assessment of the Influence of Regional Anthropogenic Emission Reductions on Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing and the Role of Intercontinental Transport

In this study, we assess changes of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and direct radiative forcing (DRF) in response to the reduction of anthropogenic emissions in four major pollution regions in the northern hemisphere by using results from 10 global chemical transport models in the framework of the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP). The multi-model results show that on average, a 20% reduction of anthropogenic emissions in North America, Europe, East Asia and South Asia lowers the global mean AOD and DRF by about 9%, 4%, and 10% for sulfate, organic matter, and black carbon aerosol, respectively. The impacts of the regional emission reductions on AOD and DRF extend well beyond the source regions because of intercontinental transport. On an annual basis, intercontinental transport accounts for 10-30% of the overall AOD and DRF in a receptor region, with domestic emissions accounting for the remainder, depending on regions and species. While South Asia is most influenced by import of sulfate aerosol from Europe, North America is most influenced by import of black carbon from East Asia. Results show a large spread among models, highlighting the need to improve aerosol processes in models and evaluate and constrain models with observations.

Yu, Hongbin↗

Quantified, Localized Health Benefits of Accelerated Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions

Societal risks increase as Earth warms, and increase further for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate, even if they lead to identical warming as trajectories with reduced near-term emissions. Accelerating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions, including as a substitute for negative emissions, hence reduces long-term risks but requires dramatic near-term societal transformations. A major barrier to emissions reductions is the difficulty of reconciling immediate, localized costs with global, long-term benefits. However, 2 C trajectories not relying on negative emissions or 1.5 C trajectories require elimination of most fossil-fuel-related emissions. This generally reduces co-emissions that cause ambient air pollution, resulting in near-term, localized health benefits. We therefore examine the human health benefits of increasing 21st-century CO2 reductions by 180 GtC, an amount that would shift a 'standard' 2 C scenario to 1.5 C or could achieve 2 C without negative emissions. The decreased air pollution leads to 153 +/- 43 million fewer premature deaths worldwide, with approx.40% occurring during the next 40 years, and minimal climate disbenefits. More than a million premature deaths would be prevented in many metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa, and greater than 200,000 in individual urban areas on every inhabited continent except Australia.

Atmospheric science↗

Summary of emissions reduction technology programs

The NASA emissions reduction contract programs for EPA aircraft engine classes P2 (turboshaft engines), T1 (jet engines with thrust under 8000 lb), T4 (JT8D) engines), and T2 (jet engines with thrust over 8000 lb) are discussed. The most important aspects of these programs, the commonality of approaches used, the test results, and assessments regarding applications of the derived technology are summarized.

Niedzwiecki, R. W.↗

A Multimodel Assessment of the Influence of Regional Anthropogenic Emission Reductions on Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing and the Role of Intercontinental Transport

In this study, we assess changes of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and direct radiative forcing (DRF) in response to the reduction of anthropogenic emissions in four major pollution regions in the Northern Hemisphere by using results from nine global models in the framework of the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP). DRF at top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface is estimated based on AOD results from the HTAP models and AOD-normalized DRF (NDRF) from a chemical transport model. The multimodel results show that, on average, a 20% reduction of anthropogenic emissions in North America, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia lowers the global mean AOD (all-sky TOA DRF) by 9.2% (9.0%), 3.5% (3.0%), and 9.4% (10.0%) for sulfate, particulate organic matter (POM), and black carbon (BC), respectively. Global annual average TOA all-sky forcing efficiency relative to particle or gaseous precursor emissions from the four regions (expressed as multimodel mean +/- one standard deviation) is -3.5 +/-0.8, -4.0 +/- 1.7, and 29.5+/-18.1mW / sq m per Tg for sulfate (relative to SO2), POM, and BC, respectively. The impacts of the regional emission reductions on AOD and DRF extend well beyond the source regions because of intercontinental transport (ICT). On an annual basis, ICT accounts for 11 +/- 5% to 31 +/- 9% of AOD and DRF in a receptor region at continental or subcontinental scale, with domestic emissions accounting for the remainder, depending on regions and species. For sulfate AOD, the largest ICT contribution of 31 +/- 9% occurs in South Asia, which is dominated by the emissions from Europe. For BC AOD, the largest ICT contribution of 28 +/- 18% occurs in North America, which is dominated by the emissions from East Asia. The large spreads among models highlight the need to improve aerosol processes in models, and evaluate and constrain models with observations.

Europe↗

Screening analysis and selection of emission reduction concepts for intermittent combustion aircraft engines

An analysis was conducted to screen, evaluate, and select three engine exhaust emission reduction concepts from a group of 14 candidate alternatives. A comprehensive literature search was conducted to survey the emission reduction technology state-of-the-art and establish contact with firms working on intermittent combustion engine development and pollution reduction problems. Concept development, advantages, disadvantages, and expected emission reduction responses are stated. A set of cost effectiveness criteria was developed, appraised for relative importance, and traded off against each concept so that its merit could be determined. A decision model was used to aid the evaluators in managing the criteria, making consistent judgements, calculating merit scores, and ranking the concepts. An Improved Fuel Injection System, Improved Cooling Combustion Chamber, and a Variable Timing Ignition System were recommended to NASA for approval and further concept development. An alternate concept, Air Injection, was also recommended.

Rezy, B. J.↗

Decoupling the Effects of Anthropogenic Emission Reductions from the Meteorology and Natural Emissions in TROPOMI NO 2 Retrievals During the 2020 COVID-19 Lockdowns

Satellite measurements during the COVID-19 lockdowns that began in 2020 revealed unprecedented reductions in NO 2 tropospheric vertical column densities (VCD). These reductions have largely been attributed to reduced anthropogenic emissions associated with abrupt decreases in road traffic and other power consuming business activities. Although decreased emissions tended to be the main contributor to the observed NO 2 VCD reduction, meteorological variability also played a role. Whereas the observed VCD changes were predominantly negative in places where public health policies were strictly enforced, meteorology had both positive and negative effects over short time intervals. Here, we present results from a global study of the NO 2 reductions aimed at disentangling the meteorological and natural emission variability from the anthropogenic emissions over the world’s most populated megacities. For this study, NASA’s TROPOMI NO 2 algorithm was used in conjunction with the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical transport model to separate the contributions due emissions and meteorology. A priori NO 2 profiles were generated from two GMI simulations performed for 2020 at a resolution of 0.25° longitude x 0.25° latitude. The first simulation used updated, COVID-impacted NOX emissions based on Forster et al. (2020), while the second simulation used the 2019 emissions with the 2020 meteorology, referred to here as 2020BAU. The 2020BAU data set allowed for the decoupling of the emission component from the meteorology. When compared to the same period in 2019, NO 2 column amounts during the lockdowns were reduced in 35 out of 36 cities. While reduced emissions contributed most to the observed total change in NO 2 during the lockdowns, the effects of meteorology were significant, ranging between 40% (Chennai) and 15% (Beijing). In China, an increase in NO 2 levels due to meteorology were observed in five out of the seven cities considered in the study. Use of different a-priori NO 2 profiles from the two simulations in our TROPOMI retrievals allowed for a determination of retrieval errors that ranged from -1.7% to -11.0%. We used the quality assurance flag > 0.75 to select the highest quality scenes in the study period. Using the GMI, we estimated the sampling biases to be in the range -11% to 10% of the total change for the cities in our study.

Brad Fisher↗

TCM aircraft piston engine emission reduction program

The technology necessary to safely reduce general aviation piston engine exhaust emissions to meet the EPA 1980 Emission Standards with minimum adverse effects on cost, weight, fuel economy, and performance was demonstrated. A screening and assessment of promising emission reduction concepts was provided, and the preliminary design and development of those concepts was established. A system analysis study and a decision making procedure were used by TCM to evaluate, trade off, and rank the candidate concepts from a list of 14 alternatives. Cost, emissions, and 13 other design criteria considerations were defined and traded off against each candidate concept to establish its merit and emission reduction usefulness. A computer program was used to aid the evaluators in making the final choice of three concepts.

Rezy, B. J.↗

Xcel Energy’s electric carbon emissions reduction trajectories in the context of 1.5°C and 2°C warming pathways

In 2015 the Paris Agreement established the goals of limiting global average warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit warming to below 1.5°C. A large and growing number of scenarios have been developed by the climate research community that explore global energy and emissions pathways that would achieve those goals. We draw on the most recent database of such scenarios to update a previous analysis of Xcel Energy’s emissions reduction goals in light of evolving climate science. We assess the outlook for the role of the US electricity sector in current economy-wide and global emissions pathways and compare it to Xcel Energy’s near-term resource plans to 2030. We find that global scenarios that achieve the 1.5°C goal span a range of US/North America electricity sector emissions reductions by 2030 of about 65-85%. Xcel Energy’s emissions reductions to date have exceeded those of the US electricity sector as a whole, and its projected trajectory to 2030 under current approved resource plans falls within this range. Scenarios achieving the 2°C goal have a wider range of reductions (about 40-85%). In scenarios achieving either goal, electricity sector emissions fall faster than economy-wide emissions, a robust feature of mitigation scenarios, which typically rely on low carbon electricity to achieve climate targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Status of NASA aircraft engine emission reduction and upper atmosphere measurement programs

Advanced emission reduction techniques for five existing aircraft gas turbine engines are evaluated. Progress made toward meeting the 1979 EPA standards in rig tests of combustors for the five engines is reported. Results of fundamental combustion studies suggest the possibility of a new generation of jet engine combustor technology that would reduce oxides-of-nitrogen (NOx) emissions far below levels currently demonstrated in the engine-related programs. The Global Air Sampling Program (GAS) is now in full operation and is providing data on constituent measurements of ozone and other minor upper-atmosphere species related to aircraft emissions.

Rudey, R. A.↗

Nox Emission Reduction in Commercial Jets Through Water Injection

This paper discusses a method of the nitrogen oxides (NOx) emission reduction through the injection of water in commercial turbofan engines during the takeoff and climbout cycles. In addition to emission reduction, this method can significantly reduce turbine temperature during the most demanding operational modes (takeoff and climbout) and increase engine reliability and life.

Balepin, Vladimir↗

South Asian Monsoon Response to Regional Aerosol Emission Reductions: Insights From RAMIP

Anthropogenic aerosol and associated precursor gas emissions are already declining in many regions and are likely to decline significantly by 2050, with major implications for regional climate. Unlike greenhouse gases, aerosol impacts are spatially heterogeneous and can influence climate both near emission sources and through remote teleconnections. This is particularly important for the South Asian monsoon system, where both local and remote aerosol changes can significantly affect precipitation patterns. Using simulations from the Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project, we examine how local and remote aerosol emission reductions influence South Asian climate across both pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, including weakening of the elevated heat pump (EHP) mechanism during pre-monsoon months. Our analysis employs 10-member ensembles from 10 CMIP6-era models to compare three experiments with global, South Asian, and East Asian aerosol reductions relative to a high-emission baseline (SSP3-7.0). This experimental design allows us to isolate and quantify the distinct impacts of regional emission changes. Results reveal that global aerosol reductions produce a larger all-India precipitation increase (+0.28 mm day −1 ) than South Asian reductions alone (+0.19 mm day −1 ), with the strongest regional responses over the northern Bay of Bengal, the Western Ghats and Indo-Gangetic Plains. East Asian reductions show uncertain but modest precipitation reductions of 0.2-0.6 mm day −1 over parts of west-central and eastern Indian regions. Pre-monsoon carbonaceous aerosol reductions systematically weaken the EHP, cooling the mid-troposphere over the Himalayan foothills by up to 0.4 K and producing localised anomalous descent that opposes the climatological pre-monsoon ascent. Substantial inter-model diversity exists in the spatial patterns and magnitudes of these responses, highlighting key uncertainties in aerosol–monsoon interactions. The South Asian precipitation response is driven by enhanced land–sea thermal contrast, while the pre-monsoon EHP weakening is attributable exclusively to local South Asian carbonaceous aerosol forcing rather than remote teleconnections. These findings have direct implications for air quality and climate adaptation planning across South Asia as regional aerosol emissions diverge under different development pathways.

cmip6↗

The path to 2060: Saudi Arabia's long-term pathway for GHG emission reduction

Saudi Arabia, as part of its Saudi Green Initiative, has announced its goal to achieve net zero green-house gas emissions by 2060. This ambitious target underscores the nation's dedication to address-ing climate change. However, there is a significant gap in comprehensive analysis regarding the long-term effects of Saudi Arabia's climate policies and their collective contribution towards the net-zero objective. This study endeavors to bridge this gap through a detailed examination using the GCAM-KSA, a specialized version of the Global Change Analysis Model tailored for Saudi Arabia, employing a multi-sectoral methodology that integrates economic, energy, and land use systems within a coherent framework to assess the impact of climate policies on GHG emissions. Our anal-ysis reveals that reaching net-zero GHG emissions by 2060 is a complex challenge requiring con-certed efforts across all sectors of the economy. While transitioning to low-carbon electricity and improving energy efficiency offer considerable emission reductions, fully decarbonizing the indus-trial and transportation sectors poses a significant hurdle. Our findings suggest that Saudi Arabia must triple its emission reduction commitments in its next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) update to align with its 2060 net-zero goal. Early action and increased ambition could avoid the chances of getting locked into the high emission assets and give enough time to transform the energy system. Furthermore, the adoption and integration of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) tech-nologies are identified as crucial for offsetting residual emissions, especially in sectors that might continue to rely on fossil fuels.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Local and Remote Mean and Extreme Temperature Response to Regional Aerosol Emissions Reductions

The climatic implications of regional aerosol and precursor emissions reductions implemented to protect human health are poorly understood. We investigate the mean and extreme temperature response to regional changes in aerosol emissions using three coupled chemistry–climate models: NOAA GFDL CM3, NCAR CESM1, and NASA GISS-E2. Our approach contrasts a long present-day control simulation from each model (up to 400 years with perpetual year 2000 or 2005 emissions) with 14 individual aerosol emissions perturbation simulations (160–240 years each). We perturb emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and/or carbonaceous aerosol within six world regions and assess the statistical significance of mean and extreme temperature responses relative to internal variability determined by the control simulation and across the models. In all models, the global mean surface temperature response (perturbation minus control) to SO2 and/or carbonaceous aerosol is mostly positive (warming) and statistically significant and ranges from +0.17 K (Europe SO2) to -0.06 K (US BC). The warming response to SO2 reductions is strongest in the US and Europe perturbation simulations, both globally and regionally, with Arctic warming up to 1 K due to a removal of European anthropogenic SO2 emissions alone; however, even emissions from regions remote to the Arctic, such as SO2 from India, significantly warm the Arctic by up to 0.5 K. Arctic warming is the most robust response across each model and several aerosol emissions perturbations. The temperature response in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes is most sensitive to emissions perturbations within that region. In the tropics, however, the temperature response to emissions perturbations is roughly the same in magnitude as emissions perturbations either within or outside of the tropics. We find that climate sensitivity to regional aerosol perturbations ranges from 0.5 to 1.0 K (W m(exp -2))(exp -1) depending on the region and aerosol composition and is larger than the climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 in two of three models. We update previous estimates of regional temperature potential (RTP), a metric for estimating the regional temperature responses to a regional emissions perturbation that can facilitate assessment of climate impacts with integrated assessment models without requiring computationally demanding coupled climate model simulations. These calculations indicate a robust regional response to aerosol forcing within the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, regardless of where the aerosol forcing is located longitudinally. We show that regional aerosol perturbations can significantly increase extreme temperatures on the regional scale. Except in the Arctic in the summer, extreme temperature responses largely mirror mean temperature responses to regional aerosol perturbations through a shift of the temperature distributions and are mostly dominated by local rather than remote aerosol forcing.

Westervelt, Daniel M.↗

Results and status of the NASA aircraft engine emission reduction technology programs

The results of an aircraft engine emission reduction study are reviewed in detail. The capability of combustor concepts to produce significantly lower levels of exhaust emissions than present production combustors was evaluated. The development status of each combustor concept is discussed relative to its potential for implementation in aircraft engines. Also, the ability of these combustor concepts to achieve proposed NME and NCE EPA standards is discussed.

Jones, R. E.↗

Emissions Reduction Technology Program

Combustor concepts having the potential for significantly lower emissions levels were investigated. The combustor emissions reduction was measured in an engine test. Emission characteristics common to all engine classes are shown. Multiple-burning zone combustors, specifically the double-annular and swirl-can combustors were studied. Airblast and air-assist fuel injection techniques were evaluated for emissions control potential. The combustor sceening and refining phases are summarized.

Jones, R. E.↗