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Results for “empirical modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Artificial neural networks estimate evapotranspiration for Miscanthus × giganteus as effectively as empirical model but with fewer inputs

Estimating actual evapotranspiration (ET) is particularly crucial for addressing how vegetation affects the water balance of ecosystems. ET estimation can be complex with empirical models due to their many parameters and reliance on aridity. In contrast, artificial neural networks (ANNs) could potentially estimate ET with fewer and more common meteorological parameters. In this study, we trained two ANNs, one using a feed-forward approach (FFN) and the other a nonlinear auto-regressive network (NARX), to predict ET and compared them to the commonly used empirical model Granger and Gray (GG). We trained our models on a nine-year eddy covariance (EC) dataset for Miscanthu s × giganteus ( M . × giganteus ) from Illinois (UIEF), then tested them using out-of-sample data from both UIEF and a different location in Iowa (SABR) to compare the accuracy of FFN, NARX, and GG models in estimating daily ET. A combination of air temperature (T a ) and solar radiation (R s ) was chosen as inputs due to the highest R 2 for FFN (R 2 = 0.79, 0.81, and 0.79 for training, testing, and validation, respectively) and only T a for NARX (R 2 = 0.70 for out-of-sample validation). The predictive power of the FFN model was superior to the NARX and GG models at the UIEF site (R 2 = 0.84, 0.70, and 0.83 for out-of-sample validation, respectively). Our analysis showed that ANN approaches are as accurate as empirical approaches for estimating ET but use fewer inputs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Soil Carbonyl Sulfide (OCS) Fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems: An Empirical Model

Measurements of carbonyl sulfide (OCS) enable independent estimates of regional stomatal conductance provided that non-stomatal OCS fluxes are well constrained. OCS is taken up through plant leaves, following the same pathway as CO 2 ; in contrast to CO 2 , OCS is irreversibly destroyed in plant leaves and plants do not typically exhibit OCS emissions. Ecosystem uptake of OCS can indicate changes in stomatal opening. Here we present an empirical model to assess the potential impact of soil OCS exchange, the non-Stomatal OCS exchange Empirical Model (SOCSEM, version 0). We created biome-specific response curves characterizing soil OCS exchange and restricted the model design to require only knowledge of soil moisture and surface temperature because remote sensing observations are available for these two features. Comparing the model to field-based chamber observations reveal deviations that can be attributed to missing complexity of the ground surface (having excluded litter and plants without regulated stomata), shortwave radiation, or the soil environment. For agricultural regions with known net emissions, we use remotely-sensed surface temperature data and demonstrate that data resolution can affect anticipated fluxes. We further investigate the influence of regions with unknown soil OCS responses, for example, Arctic tundra. We compare our model to a process-based and respiration-based soil OCS exchange model that has been implemented in a land surface model. Further field study of tropical and arctic ecosystems in conjunction with studies of non-stomatal surfaces in addition to soil (e.g., bryophytes) will increase confidence in applying OCS as a regional tracer for stomatal conductance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Methodology for the development of empirical models relating 13C NMR spectral features to fuel properties

Effective formulation of new gasoline or diesel fuels for internal combustion engines would benefit from the development of reliable models for predicting key fuel properties based on a set of molecular descriptors obtained from a single measurement. This is particularly relevant in the case of renewable fuels, where the available fuel sample quantity may be limited. In this work, we present a statistically-based methodology for building empirical models to predict multiple properties from one-dimensional 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectra measured on around 200 microliters of a liquid fuel. NMR spectra contain information about the molecular composition of a sample and the carbon types and molecular substructures therein. Our approach uses this information to build sparse, interpretable models, where the predicted properties are linked to specific molecular features. The approach takes into consideration the constrained nature of the features making up the one-dimensional NMR spectrum, which, after standardization, represent a relative fuel composition. We point to the limitations in interpretability that arise when building this type of empirical predictive model and suggest how these limitations may be diminished. Among the many properties important for maximizing engine performance and minimizing emissions, we build models that predict derived cetane number and distillation temperatures as these are of particular interest because of their links to fuel economy, drivability, and engine-out emissions. Results suggest that the properties of interest may be impacted by only a few of the 27 13C NMR regions represented in the data, pointing to new directions for further testing in the development of improved fuels.

predictive models, biofuels., NMR Analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combining Distributed Electrochemical Measurements with a Semi-Empirical Model to Identify Local Variations in Overpotentials for PEM Water Electrolyzers

Abstract A segmented cell and PCB approach was used to demonstrate an advanced technique for measuring and understanding the electrochemical behavior of PEM water electrolyzers. By employing a semi-empirical model, discrete modes of overpotential and their spatial distributions were identified in an operating cell. Distributed area-specific resistance (DASR measurements indicate that local dehydration of the polymer electrolyte membrane is the primary driver of increased polarization, behaving similarly to mass transport-limited currents at low flow rates due to ineffective gas-phase bubble removal. To improve quantification, the overall ohmic overpotential is divided into background (η Ohm,b ) and mass transport-coupled (η Ohm,mt ) components. Two types of anode diffusion media, a baseline PTL and a thin foil liquid/gas diffusion layer (LGDL), were examined. The results show significant variations in η Ohm,b and highlight that ineffective bubble removal leads to pronounced local dehydration. The effect of cell temperature on various overpotentials was also examined. Negligible differences in diffusion overpotential were observed when comparing PEWE performance using the PTL and LGDL, despite major differences in two-phase fluid transport within each diffusion media. This underscores the critical role of the catalyst layer's micro-porous structure in diffusion processes. The study highlights the complex nature and intricacies of mass transport limitations within PEWEs.

Roy, Anirban (ORCID:0000000163803386)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Mechanistic and Empirical Models against Existing FFRD and LOCA Experimental Databases

The desire of the nuclear industry to improve the economics of existing nuclear power plants has necessitated research into the potential of a phenomenon known as fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD). This phenomenon is possible during a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) at relatively high burnup. The Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program has been developing simulation capabilities for FFRD and LOCA in the BISON fuel performance code for multiple years. This year, the effort has been focused on evaluating new lower length scale informed pulverization thresholds as well as updating and adding new empirical models for various phenomena. Models added or updated this year include a preliminary transient fission gas release model, new high-temperature Zircaloy creep models, a Zircaloy rupture opening area model, and a temperature-dependent emissivity during radiation from the fuel rod to the surrounding atmosphere. The models are verified through implementation tests to demonstrate code correctness after addition to BISON. The models are then assessed against a subset of the existing BISON validation suite for LOCA and FFRD cases. Two new cases, Studsvik Rods 192 and 193, have been added. The results indicate that the inclusion of a bubble pressure evolution model in the bubbles in the high-burnup structure has the largest impact compared to the 3D fracture criterion on reducing the calculated amount of pulverized fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking State-of-the-Art Theory and Empirical Models of Pionless Neutrino-Argon Scattering in GENIE

Neutrino event generators require a delicate balance between theory and empirically-driven models to achieve reliable simulations. GENIE is the most commonly used generator, bridging theory and experiment in modern neutrino physics. Its flexible framework makes it ideal for comparing different models across all aspects of neutrino interactions—from the nuclear ground state and primary vertex to final-state interactions. Recently, GENIE has incorporated several state-of-the-art, theory-driven models, including spectral-function descriptions of the nuclear ground state, axial form factors from first-principles lattice QCD calculations, and the Liège intranuclear cascade model for simulating final-state interactions. Compared to the previous baseline models in GENIE—such as the local Fermi gas, dipole-like axial form factor, and hA final-state interaction model—the new implementations are more physically realistic and incorporate more complete physics, including nuclear de-excitation. This poster presents the implementation of new models in GENIE and their performance in comparisons among these models against recent MicroBooNE cross-section measurements.

Liu, Liang [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000026753925X)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking State-of-the-Art Theory and Empirical Models of Pionless Neutrino-Argon Scattering in GENIE

Neutrino event generators require a delicate balance between theory and empirically-driven models to achieve reliable simulations. GENIE is the most commonly used generator, bridging theory and experiment in modern neutrino physics. Its flexible framework makes it ideal for comparing different models across all aspects of neutrino interactions—from the nuclear ground state and primary vertex to final-state interactions. Recently, GENIE has incorporated several state-of-the-art, theory-driven models, including spectral-function descriptions of the nuclear ground state, axial form factors from first-principles lattice QCD calculations, and the Liège intranuclear cascade model for simulating final-state interactions. Compared to the previous baseline models in GENIE—such as the local Fermi gas, dipole-like axial form factor, and hA final-state interaction model—the new implementations are more physically realistic and incorporate more complete physics, including nuclear de-excitation. This poster presents the implementation of new models in GENIE and their performance in comparisons among these models against recent MicroBooNE cross-section measurements.

Liu, Liang [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000026753925X)↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Empirical Model For Intrinsic Alignments: Insights From Cosmological Simulations

We extend current models of the halo occupation distribution (HOD) to include a flexible, empirical framework for the forward modeling of the intrinsic alignment (IA) of galaxies. A primary goal of this work is to produce mock galaxy catalogs for the purpose of validating existing models and methods for the mitigation of IA in weak lensing measurements. This technique can also be used to produce new, simulation-based predictions for IA and galaxy clustering. Our model is probabilistically formulated, and rests upon the assumption that the orientations of galaxies exhibit a correlation with their host dark matter (sub)halo orientation or with their position within the halo. We examine the necessary components and phenomenology of such a model by considering the alignments between (sub)halos in a cosmological dark matter only simulation. We then validate this model for a realistic galaxy population in a set of simulations in the Illustris-TNG suite. We create an HOD mock with Illustris-like correlations using our method, constraining the associated IA model parameters, with the $\mathcal{X}$$^{2}_{dof}$ between our model’s correlations and those of Illustris matching as closely as 1.4 and 1.1 for orientation–position and orientation–orientation correlation functions, respectively. By modeling the misalignment between galaxies and their host halo, we show that the 3-dimensional two-point position and orientation correlation functions of simulated (sub)halos and galaxies can be accurately reproduced from quasi-linear scales down to 0.1 $\mathcal{h}$ –1 Mpc. We also find evidence for environmental influence on IA within a halo. Our publicly-available software provides a key component enabling efficient determination of Bayesian posteriors on IA model parameters using observational measurements of galaxy-orientation correlation functions in the highly nonlinear regime.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Qualitative Strategy for Fusion of Physics into Empirical Models for Process Anomaly Detection

To facilitate the automated online monitoring of power plants, a systematic and qualitative strategy for anomaly detection is presented. This strategy is essential to provide credible reasoning on why and when an empirical versus hybrid (i.e., physics-supported) approach should be used and to determine the ideal mix of these two approaches for a defined anomaly detection scope. Empirical methods are usually based on pattern, statistical, and causal inference. Hybrid methods include the use of physics models to train and test data methods, reduce data dimensionality, reduce data-model complexity, augment data, and reduce empirical uncertainty; hybrid methods also include the use of data to tune physics models. The presented strategy is driven by key decision points related to data relevance, simple modeling feasibility, data inference, physics-modeling value, data dimensionality, physics knowledge, method of validation, performance, data availability, and suitability for training and testing, cause-effect, entropy inference, and model fitting. The strategy is demonstrated through a pilot use case for the application of anomaly detection to capture a valve packing leak at the high-pressure coolant injection system of a nuclear power plant.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Compare Mechanistic Predictions for Doped UO 2 Mechanical Response and Other Properties with Empirical Models and Experimental Measurements

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program develops predictive capabilities using computational methods for the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been supporting the development of BISON, a high-fidelity, high resolution fuel performance tool at the engineering scale. As part of its development, additional modeling capabilities and improvements have been developed for relevant fuel forms. In this work, a fuel creep deformation model for Cr-doped fuel has been implemented into BISON, along with improvements to the empirical UO 2 fuel creep model based on experimental data and improvements to the radial power factor calculation for doped fuels. This work allows for more accurate simulation analyses for both UO 2 and doped-UO 2 fuels.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking state-of-the-art theory and empirical models of pionless neutrino-argon scattering in GENIE

Upcoming experiments need improved simulations of neutrino scattering. This work uses the popular GENIE event generator to test a variety of neutrino interaction models against recent MicroBooNE measurements of pionless charged-current interactions. The GENIE code can easily interchange model components, including nucleon form factor parameterizations, quasielastic cross-section calculations, treatments of the nuclear ground state and hadronic final-state interactions. Leveraging this software capability in comparisons with MicroBooNE data, the performance of some of GENIE’s most theoretically sophisticated model components is evaluated and contrasted with more empirically-driven alternatives.

Neutrino cross section↗
DOE OSTI2021

Empirical Model of Puncture Energy for Metals

The purpose of this work is to fit a previously developed empirical equation for puncture energy to simulation data. The conservative puncture energy equation could be used to expedite the process of performing calculations in the development of safety measures, avoiding the need to create complex finite element models for specific puncture scenarios. A total of 108 simulations are developed by varying coupon thickness, coupon material, probe shape, and probe diameter. The simulations are comprised of a low-velocity probe puncturing the coupons, from which the probe kinetic energy change is calculated. The empirical equation is fit to the dimensions, material properties, and energy results using a non-linear least-squares regression method within Python, which determines the two constant parameters for each fit. More statistically significant fit results are achieved by separating the data by probe shape and coupon material.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Empirical Modeling of Direct Expansion (DX) Cooling System for Multiple Research Use Cases

This study provides a general procedure to generate a direct expansion (DX) cooling coil system for a roof top unit (RTU), which is a typical heating ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) system for commercial buildings in the United States. Experimental data from a full-scale unoccupied 2-story commercial building is used for the HVAC modeling. The regression for identifying the model coefficients was carried out with multiple stages, and the results were validated with measured data. The model’s applicability was evaluated with multiple case studies, including a building energy simulation (BES) program validation, model-based predictive control (MPC), and fault diagnostics and detection (FDD).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Model Inadequacy in TRISO Nuclear Fuel Fission Products Release Models: Empirical and Mechanistic Approaches

The increasing use of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel in both advanced and existing reactors necessitates a thorough evaluation of uncertainties and shortcomings in TRISO fission product release models. These inadequacies arise from the simplifications made in computational models compared to experimental data. Utilizing the BISON fuel performance code and experimental data from the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program provides a unique chance to rigorously assess these inadequacies within a Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework. This study contrasts the standard Bayesian framework with the Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) framework, which explicitly accounts for modeling inadequacies, in the context of UQ for TRISO silver release models. It examines both the traditional Arrhenius equation and a more advanced lower-length-scale (LLS)-informed model that incorporates microstructure information. The inverse UQ process applied to AGR-2 and AGR-3/4 datasets identified modeling inadequacy as the primary source of uncertainty, with experimental noise also being significant, while model parameter uncertainty was minimal. Both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models showed similar levels of modeling inadequacy. For forward predictive UQ using the AGR-1 dataset, the KOH framework enhanced the accuracy and quality of quantified uncertainties by approximately 30% and 40%, respectively, compared to the standard Bayesian framework. This improvement was observed for both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models. At the engineering scale, both models performed similarly, but the LLS-informed model outperformed the Arrhenius equation at the mesoscale. These findings underscore the importance of explicitly considering modeling inadequacy in the UQ process and highlight the need for ongoing refinement of physics-based models to address these shortcomings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

SEMI-EMPIRICAL MODELING OF IRRADIATION-INDUCED DIMENSIONAL CHANGE IN H-451 NUCLEAR GRAPHITE

Nuclear graphite has been used as a moderator material in nuclear reactor designs dating back to the first reactor to reach criticality, Chicago Pile 1, in 1942. In addition, it is anticipated to be used in the conceptual Generation four (GenIV) Molten-salt reactors (MSRs) and the High-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTRs). The macroscopic dimensional change observed in irradiated nuclear graphite is a property change of significant importance. Largely, volumetric change provides valuable insight into the in-service lifetime of graphite components used in nuclear reactors. The dimensional change behavior varies amongst each grade of nuclear graphite due to processing techniques and the resulting microstructure. In this work, historic data for nuclear graphite H-451 is revisited. A semi-empirical methodology is proposed to describe the dimensional change behavior as a function of temperature for nuclear graphite H-451. The turnaround dose, or when there is a reversal of the dimensional change from contraction to expansion, is proposed to be a thermally activated process and thus can be described by an Arrhenius model. On the atomic scale, H-451 is sp2-bonded carbon atoms with some degree of disorder regardless of orientation. Towards that end, the activation energy is assumed to be a constant irrespective of orientation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗