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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2016

Statistical Emulator for Expensive Classification Simulators

Expensive simulators prevent any kind of meaningful analysis to be performed on the phenomena they model. To get around this problem the concept of using a statistical emulator as a surrogate representation of the simulator was introduced in the 1980's. Presently, simulators have become more and more complex and as a result running a single example on these simulators is very expensive and can take days to weeks or even months. Many new techniques have been introduced, termed criteria, which sequentially select the next best (most informative to the emulator) point that should be run on the simulator. These criteria methods allow for the creation of an emulator with only a small number of simulator runs. We follow and extend this framework to expensive classification simulators.

Ross, Jerret↗

DOE OSTI2021

Challenges in Firmware Re-Hosting, Emulation, and Analysis

System emulation and firmware re-hosting have become popular techniques to answer various security and performance related questions, such as determining whether a firmware contain security vulnerabilities or meet timing requirements when run on a specific hardware platform. While this motivation for emulation and binary analysis has previously been explored and reported, starting to either work or research in the field is difficult. To this end, we provide a comprehensive guide for the practitioner or system emulation researcher. Here, we layout common challenges faced during firmware re-hosting, explaining successive steps and surveying common tools used to overcome these challenges. We provide classification techniques on five different axes, including emulator methods, system type, fidelity, emulator purpose, and control. These classifications and comparison criteria enable the practitioner to determine the appropriate tool for emulation. We use our classifications to categorize popular works in the field and present 28 common challenges faced when creating, emulating, and analyzing a system from obtaining firmwares to post emulation analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Harmonized Automatic Relay Mitigation of Nefarious Intentional Events (HARMONIE) - Special Protection Scheme (SPS)

The harmonized automatic relay mitigation of nefarious intentional events (HARMONIE) special protection scheme (SPS) was developed to provide adaptive, cyber-physical response to unpredictable disturbances in the electric grid. The HARMONIE-SPS methodology includes a machine learning classification framework that analyzes real time cyber-physical data and determines if the system is in normal conditions, cyber disturbance, physical disturbance, or cyber-physical disturbance. This classification then informs response, if needed and/or suitable, and included cyber-physical corrective actions. Beyond standard power system mitigations, a few novel approaches were developed that included a consensus algorithm-based relay voting scheme, an automated power system triggering condition and corrective action pairing algorithm, and a cyber traffic routing optimization algorithm. Both the classification and response techniques were tested within a newly integrated emulation environment composed of a real-time digital simulator (RTDS) and SCEPTRE™. This report details the HARMONIE-SPS methodology, highlighting both the classification and response techniques, and the subsequent testing results from the emulation environment.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1984

Using spatial logic in classification of Landsat TM data

A strategy for spatial/spectral classification of Landsat TM data is presented. The strategy is founded upon 'spatial logic', a logic that seeks to emulate important aspects of visual image interpretation. The carefully structured classification process begins with spectral stratification of the data into water, vegetated and non-vegetated pixels. A region growing algorithm is then used to define 'fields' of similar land cover composition. Fields are characterized by cover composition, size and neighborhood characteristics. A supervised iterative contextual classification algorithm is developed to assign final land use/land cover labels. Maps are generalized using a spatial post-processing technique. Positive, though preliminary, results are presented.

Merchant, J. W.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Are light curve classification metrics good proxies for SN Ia cosmological constraining power?

Context. When selecting a light curve classifier for use as part of a photometric supernova Ia (SN Ia) cosmological analysis, it is common to make decisions based on metrics of classification performance, such as the contamination within the photometrically classified SN Ia sample, rather than a measure of cosmological constraining power. If the former is an appropriate proxy for the latter, this practice would eliminate the computational expense of a full cosmology forecast in the analysis pipeline design process. Aims. This study tests the assumption that light curve classification metrics are an appropriate proxy for cosmology metrics. Methods. We emulated photometric SN Ia cosmology light curve samples with controlled contamination rates of individual contaminant classes and evaluated each of them under a set of classification metrics. We then derived cosmological parameter constraints from all samples under two common analysis approaches and quantified the impact of contamination by each contaminant class on the resulting cosmological parameter estimates. Results. We observe that cosmology metrics are sensitive to both the contamination rate and the class of the contaminating population, whereas the classification metrics are shown to be insensitive to the latter. Conclusions. Based on these findings, we discourage any exclusive reliance on light curve classification-based metrics for analysis design decisions, which (counterintuitively) include but are not limited to the classifier choice. Instead, we recommend optimising science analysis pipeline design choices using a metric of the information gained about the physical parameters of interest.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quasi-Distributed Fiber Sensor-Based Approach for Pipeline Health Monitoring: Generating and Analyzing Physics-Based Simulation Datasets for Classification

This study presents a framework for detecting mechanical damage in pipelines, focusing on generating simulated data and sampling to emulate distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) system responses. The workflow transforms simulated ultrasonic guided wave (UGW) responses into DAS or quasi-DAS system responses to create a physically robust dataset for pipeline event classification, including welds, clips, and corrosion defects. This investigation examines the effects of sensing systems and noise on classification performance, emphasizing the importance of selecting the appropriate sensing system for a specific application. The framework shows the robustness of different sensor number deployments to experimentally relevant noise levels, demonstrating its applicability in real-world scenarios where noise is present. Overall, this study contributes to the development of a more reliable and effective method for detecting mechanical damage to pipelines by emphasizing the generation and utilization of simulated DAS system responses for pipeline classification efforts. The results on the effects of sensing systems and noise on classification performance further enhance the robustness and reliability of the framework.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC 2 ) v1.1: an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator for large-scale models

Abstract. Climate models are essential for our comprehensive understanding of Earth's atmosphere and can provide critical insights on future changes decades ahead. Because of these critical roles, today's climate models are continuously being developed and evaluated using constraining observations and measurements obtained by satellites, airborne, and ground-based instruments. Instrument simulators can provide a bridge between the measured or retrieved quantities and their sampling in models and field observations while considering instrument sensitivity limitations. Here we present the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2), an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator, specifically designed for large-scale models, in particular climate models, but also applicable to high-resolution model output. EMC2 provides a flexible framework enabling direct comparison of model output with ground-based observations, including generation of subcolumns that may statistically represent finer model spatial resolutions. In addition, EMC2 emulates ground-based (and air- or space-borne) measurements while remaining faithful to large-scale models' physical assumptions implemented in their cloud or radiation schemes. The simulator uses either single particle or bulk particle size distribution lookup tables, depending on the selected scheme approach, to perform the forward calculations. To facilitate model evaluation, EMC2 also includes three hydrometeor classification methods, namely, radar- and sounding-based cloud and precipitation detection and classification, lidar-based phase classification, and a Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP) lidar simulator emulator. The software is written in Python, is easy to use, and can be straightforwardly customized for different models, radars, and lidars. Following the description of the logic, functionality, features, and software structure of EMC2, we present a case study of highly supercooled mixed-phase cloud based on measurements from the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE). We compare observations with the application of EMC2 to outputs from four configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model (ModelE3) in single-column model (SCM) mode and from a large-eddy simulation (LES) model. We show that two of the four ModelE3 configurations can form and maintain highly supercooled precipitating cloud for several hours, consistent with observations and LES. While our focus is on one of these ModelE3 configurations, which performed slightly better in this case study, both of these configurations and the LES results post-processed with EMC2 generally provide reasonable agreement with observed lidar and radar variables. As briefly demonstrated here, EMC2 can provide a lightweight and flexible framework for comparing the results of both large-scale and high-resolution models directly with observations, with relatively little overhead and multiple options for achieving consistency with model microphysical or radiation scheme physics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2022

The Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2) v1.1: An Open-Source Ground-Based Lidar and Radar Instrument Simulator and Subcolumn Generator for Large-Scale Models

Climate models are essential for our comprehensive understanding of Earth's atmosphere and can provide critical insights on future changes decades ahead. Because of these critical roles, today's climate models are continuously being developed and evaluated using constraining observations and measurements obtained by satellites, airborne, and ground-based instruments. Instrument simulators can provide a bridge between the measured or retrieved quantities and their sampling in models and field observations while considering instrument sensitivity limitations. Here we present the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2), an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator, specifically designed for large-scale models, in particular climate models, but also applicable to high-resolution model output. EMC2 provides a flexible framework enabling direct comparison of model output with ground-based observations, including generation of subcolumns that may statistically represent finer model spatial resolutions. In addition, EMC2 emulates ground-based (and air- or space-borne) measurements while remaining faithful to large-scale models' physical assumptions implemented in their cloud or radiation schemes. The simulator uses either single particle or bulk particle size distribution lookup tables, depending on the selected scheme approach, to perform the forward calculations. To facilitate model evaluation, EMC2 also includes three hydrometeor classification methods, namely, radar- and sounding-based cloud and precipitation detection and classification, lidar-based phase classification, and a Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP) lidar simulator emulator. The software is written in Python, is easy to use, and can be straightforwardly customized for different models, radars, and lidars. Following the description of the logic, functionality, features, and software structure of EMC2, we present a case study of highly supercooled mixed-phase cloud based on measurements from the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE). We compare observations with the application of EMC2 to outputs from four configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model (ModelE3) in single-column model (SCM) mode and from a large-eddy simulation (LES) model. We show that two of the four ModelE3 configurations can form and maintain highly supercooled precipitating cloud for several hours, consistent with observations and LES. While our focus is on one of these ModelE3 configurations, which performed slightly better in this case study, both of these configurations and the LES results post-processed with EMC2 generally provide reasonable agreement with observed lidar and radar variables. As briefly demonstrated here, EMC2 can provide a lightweight and flexible framework for comparing the results of both large-scale and high-resolution models directly with observations, with relatively little overhead and multiple options for achieving consistency with model microphysical or radiation scheme physics.

Earth Model Column Collaboratory↗

DOE OSTI2021

Early detection and uncertainty quantification of rapid sea-level rise from Antarctica

Focal Areas: (i) classification and/or anomaly detection methods applied towards identifying critical climate system thresholds; improved emulator design for (ii) reducing computational costs relative to full-physics models and (iii) improved uncertainty quantification workflows. Rationale: The evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to climate change remains the single largest uncertainty in projecting future sea-level rise (SLR), with risk-averse projections for 2100 spanning between zero and a half meter. During the past decade, DOE has made substantial investments in new ice sheet and Earth system models needed to improve both understanding and predictive capability in this area. Yet major challenges remain, including better understanding when and under what circumstances significant increases in SLR from Antarctica may be initiated and better quantifying uncertainties in model-based SLR projections. Here, we discuss the potential for transformative advances in these areas through the application of machine learning and artificial intelligence (ML and AI, respectively).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Photovoltaic System Health-State Architecture for Data-Driven Failure Detection

The timely detection of photovoltaic (PV) system failures is important for maintaining optimal performance and lifetime reliability. A main challenge remains the lack of a unified health-state architecture for the uninterrupted monitoring and predictive performance of PV systems. To this end, existing failure detection models are strongly dependent on the availability and quality of site-specific historic data. The scope of this work is to address these fundamental challenges by presenting a health-state architecture for advanced PV system monitoring. The proposed architecture comprises of a machine learning model for PV performance modeling and accurate failure diagnosis. The predictive model is optimally trained on low amounts of on-site data using minimal features and coupled to functional routines for data quality verification, whereas the classifier is trained under an enhanced supervised learning regime. The results demonstrated high accuracies for the implemented predictive model, exhibiting normalized root mean square errors lower than 3.40% even when trained with low data shares. The classification results provided evidence that fault conditions can be detected with a sensitivity of 83.91% for synthetic power-loss events (power reduction of 5%) and of 97.99% for field-emulated failures in the test-bench PV system. Finally, this work provides insights on how to construct an accurate PV system with predictive and classification models for the timely detection of faults and uninterrupted monitoring of PV systems, regardless of historic data availability and quality. Such guidelines and insights on the development of accurate health-state architectures for PV plants can have positive implications in operation and maintenance and monitoring strategies, thus improving the system’s performance.

photovoltaics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning for photovoltaic single axis tracker fault detection and classification

More than 81% of the annual capacity of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) power plants in the U.S. use single-axis trackers (SATs) due to SATs delivering 4% in capacity factor on average over fixed-array systems. However, SATs are subject to faults, such as software misconfigurations and mechanical failures, resulting in suboptimal tracking. If left undetected, the overall power yield of the PV power plant is reduced significantly. Minimizing downtime and ensuring efficient operation of SATs requires robust detection and diagnosis mechanisms for SAT faults. We present a machine learning framework for implementing real-time SAT fault detection and classification. Our implementation of the proposed framework reliably identifies measurements taken from a test PV system undergoing emulated SAT faults relative to state-of-the-art algorithms and produces nearly zero false positives on our testing days. Code and data are available at https://pvpmc.sandia.gov/tools.

Fault classification↗

DOE OSTI2026

Synaptic Functionality and Neuromorphic Information Processing in Membrane Ion Channel Junctions

The human brain performs complex memory and computational tasks with high energy efficiency by regulating ion transport through membrane channels. These signaling mechanisms have been inspiring the development of nanofluidic memristors that emulate synaptic behavior. Here, in this study, we describe a membrane ion channel synapse (MICS), constructed from aqueous droplets linked by gramicidin A channels, that achieves neuromorphic functionality. MICS exhibits memristive ion transport with hysteretic current–voltage behavior arising from voltage-dependent channel formation and ion transport dynamics. MICS emulates a range of synaptic behaviors including associative learning. We further demonstrate its application in reservoir computing by performing handwritten digit classification and tic-tac-toe game and explore the system parameters that improve the computational performance. This droplet-based biomimetic synapse offers a potentially scalable and energy-efficient platform for next-generation neuromorphic computing systems.

Droplet interface bilayer↗

NASA NTRS2018

Delay Tolerant Network Routing as a Machine Learning Classification Problem

This paper discusses a machine learning-based approach to routing for delay tolerant networks (DTNs) [1]. DTNs are networks which experience frequent disconnections between nodes, uncertainty of an end-to-end path, long one-way trip times, and may have high error rates and asymmetric links. Such networks exist in deep space satellite networks, very rural environments, disaster areas and underwater environments. In this work, we use machine learning classifiers to predict a set of neighboring nodes which are the most likely to deliver a message to a desired location based on message history delivery information.We use the Common Open Research Emulator (CORE) [2] to emulate the DTN environment based on real-world location traces and collect network traffic statistics from the Bundle Protocol implementation IBR-DTN [3]. The software architecture for classification-based routing, analysis and preparation of the network history data and prediction results are discussed.

Delay Tolerant Networks↗

DOE OSTI2025

Contrasting Time-Frequency Representations for Unknown Waveform Detection

Identifying unseen electromagnetic waveforms is critical for many applications, like interference management, electronic warfare and spectrum management. Traditionally this is done using statistical methods for anomaly detection, which has evolved to deep learning models for identifying the unseen data, formally termed as open set recognition. Some prior methods use a generative model to emulate open set data, which face challenges in generating synthetic samples for open set while simultaneously selecting an optimal discriminator for accurate classification. To alleviate this issue, we propose a discriminative model that effectively combines time and frequency domain features of communication signals for accurate predictions. We further introduce a cosine similarity loss that makes the domain specific features unique to enhance the prediction rate. Additionally, our model avoids generic feature vectors by extracting class-specific features during training, resulting in improved class representation. The experiment results show that this combined feature approach with cosine loss outperforms single-domain models and improves accuracy by 10% over models without cosine loss.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2019

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Delay Tolerant Network Routing

This dissertation discusses several machine learning techniques to improve routing in delay tolerant networks (DTNs). These are networks in which there may be long one-way trip times, asymmetric links, high error rates, and deterministic as well as non-deterministic loss of contact between network nodes, such as interplanetary satellite networks, mobile ad hoc networks and wireless sensor networks. This work uses historical network statistics to train a multi-label classifier to predict reliable paths through the network. In addition, a clustering technique is used to predict future mobile node locations. Both of these techniques are used to reduce the consumption of resources such as network bandwidth, memory and data storage that is required by replication routing methods often used in opportunistic DTN environments. Thesis contributions include: an emulation tool chain developed to create a DTN test bed for machine learning, the network and software architecture for a machine learning based routing method, the development and implementation of classification and clustering techniques and performance evaluation in terms of machine learning and routing metrics.

Dudukovich, Rachel M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cyote-attack Chain Estimator

Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application Overview The Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application is a sophisticated tool designed for the ingestion, classification, sequencing, and enrichment of cybersecurity threat reports. This application leverages advanced machine learning models and extensive historical data to provide comprehensive insights into cyber threats, specifically targeting Industrial Control Systems (ICS). Purpose The primary functions of the ACE Application include: Ingestion of Cybersecurity Threat Reporting: Capable of ingesting text-based threat reports in markdown or text file format. Supports ingestion of structured data from other sources in STIX/JSON format. Classification of Report’s Text-Based Events: Utilizes a DeBERTa classifier, specifically trained on cybersecurity data, to map the events to MITRE ATT&CK for ICS Tactics and Techniques. Classification is performed using multiple Jupyter notebooks and machine learning workflows hosted as FastAPI microservices: regex_data deberta_base_35_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb hft_regex_classifier_mlflow.ipynb param_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb regex_tactic_tech.ipynb Ordering of Tactics, Techniques, and Observable Events: Sequences the identified tactics, techniques, and events to form a coherent attack chain. Enrichment with Historical Attack Chain Details: Enhances the attack chain with details from historical attacks using a Markov model developed from CyOTE Precursor Analysis Report data. The Markov model is available as a FastAPI endpoint for seamless integration. Enrichment with Adversary Emulation Capabilities Data: Integrates adversary emulation capabilities data using MITRE Caldera for OT adversary abilities UUIDs. Export of Output Files: Provides options to export the enriched attack chain in JSON or CSV formats. Routing of Output to Other Applications: Facilitates routing of output to various platforms and applications, including: Threat Intelligence Platforms COREII Scout for Threat Intelligence Analysis COREII Modeling and Simulation for Adversary Emulation Technical Description The ACE Application is an advanced cybersecurity tool designed to provide detailed threat analysis and sequence generation. It is built on a robust architecture that integrates natural language processing, machine learning, and historical data modeling. Key Components: Data Ingestion Module: Handles the input of threat reports and data from various formats, ensuring flexibility in data sources. Classification Engine: Employs DeBERTa-based classifiers hosted as FastAPI microservices to analyze and classify threat report events in accordance with the MITRE ATT&CK framework for ICS. Sequence Generator: Orders the classified events into a logical attack chain, providing clear insight into the sequence of tactics and techniques used in the threat. Enrichment Engine: Integrates historical data and adversary emulation capabilities to enhance the attack chain with valuable context and additional details. The historical data enrichment is powered by a Markov model, which is available as a FastAPI endpoint. Export and Routing Module: Facilitates the export of the enriched attack chain in multiple formats and routes the output to designated applications for further analysis or emulation.

Paul, Tony [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idaho↗

DOE OSTI2022

Lessons learned from the two largest Galaxy morphological classification catalogues built by convolutional neural networks

ABSTRACT We compare the two largest galaxy morphology catalogues, which separate early- and late-type galaxies at intermediate redshift. The two catalogues were built by applying supervised deep learning (convolutional neural networks, CNNs) to the Dark Energy Survey data down to a magnitude limit of ∼21 mag. The methodologies used for the construction of the catalogues include differences such as the cutout sizes, the labels used for training, and the input to the CNN – monochromatic images versus gri-band normalized images. In addition, one catalogue is trained using bright galaxies observed with DES (i < 18), while the other is trained with bright galaxies (r < 17.5) and ‘emulated’ galaxies up to r-band magnitude 22.5. Despite the different approaches, the agreement between the two catalogues is excellent up to i < 19, demonstrating that CNN predictions are reliable for samples at least one magnitude fainter than the training sample limit. It also shows that morphological classifications based on monochromatic images are comparable to those based on gri-band images, at least in the bright regime. At fainter magnitudes, i > 19, the overall agreement is good (∼95 per cent), but is mostly driven by the large spiral fraction in the two catalogues. In contrast, the agreement within the elliptical population is not as good, especially at faint magnitudes. By studying the mismatched cases, we are able to identify lenticular galaxies (at least up to i < 19), which are difficult to distinguish using standard classification approaches. The synergy of both catalogues provides an unique opportunity to select a population of unusual galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emulation and detection of physical faults and cyber-attacks on building energy systems through real-time hardware-in-the-loop experiments

The increasing use of remote or mobile access, integrated wearable technologies, data exchange, and cloud-based data analytics in modern smart buildings is steering the building industry towards open communication technologies. The increased connectivity and accessibility could lead to more cyber-attacks in smart buildings. On the other hand, physical faults (e.g., HVAC -heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning faults) may have similar adverse impacts as those from the cyber-attacks on building energy systems, such as occupant discomfort, energy wastage, and equipment downtime. However, current physical behavior-based anomaly detection methods fail to differentiate between cyber-attacks and physical faults in building energy systems. Moreover, the challenge in collecting real-world threat data with ground truth has led researchers to rely on numerical models with user-defined assumptions, which may not accurately reflect real-world conditions due to the lack of in-situ experimental datasets. To address these challenges and gaps, this paper presents a flexible hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed for generating cyber-attack and physical fault datasets and demonstrating threat detection algorithms in a real building automation system (BAS) environment. This testbed combines hardware (i.e., real BAS with local HVAC controllers and a physical network) with software (i.e., high-fidelity models to represent behaviors of building envelope and HVAC energy systems), enabling emulations of realistic threats. Five HIL experiments, including one baseline without any threats, two with physical faults, and two with cyber-attacks, were conducted to generate datasets containing detailed network traffic and system states. A joint classification framework, incorporating a network analyzer and a physical HVAC fault detector, was proposed to automatically detect cyber-physical abnormalities on BAS at both the network and the physical HVAC levels. The network analyzer comprises a conditional random fields (CRF) based command validator and a statistics-based detection strategy. The fault detector employs a weather and schedule-based pattern matching and feature-based principal component analysis (WPM-FPCA) method. Evaluation of the classification using four metrics from the multi-class confusion matrix revealed an average accuracy of 90.2%, recall of 89.7%, precision of 88.5% and F1-score of 89.2%. Finally, these results demonstrate that the proposed joint classification framework can effectively differentiate between specific types of cyber-attacks (e.g., device reinitialization attack, network Denial-of-Service attack) and physical faults (e.g., air handling unit operational fault, cooling coil valve stuck) in real time for improved building energy management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗