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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Personalized and uncertainty-aware coronary hemodynamics simulations: From Bayesian estimation to improved multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification

Non-invasive simulations of coronary hemodynamics have improved clinical risk stratification and treatment outcomes for coronary artery disease, compared to relying on anatomical imaging alone. However, simulations typically use empirical approaches to distribute total coronary flow amongst the arteries in the coronary tree, which ignores patient variability, the presence of disease, and other clinical factors. Further, uncertainty in the clinical data often remains unaccounted for in the modeling pipeline. We present an end-to-end uncertainty-aware pipeline to (1) personalize coronary flow simulations by incorporating vessel-specific coronary flows as well as cardiac function; and (2) predict clinical and biomechanical quantities of interest with improved precision, while accounting for uncertainty in the clinical data. We assimilate patient-specific measurements of myocardial blood flow from clinical CT myocardial perfusion imaging to estimate branch-specific coronary artery flows. Simulated noise in the clinical data is used to estimate the joint posterior distributions of the model parameters using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Additionally, the posterior predictive distribution for the relevant quantities of interest is determined using a new approach combining multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation with non-linear, data-driven dimensionality reduction. This leads to improved correlations between high- and low-fidelity model outputs. Our framework accurately recapitulates clinically measured cardiac function as well as branch-specific coronary flows under measurement noise uncertainty. We observe substantial reductions in confidence intervals for estimated quantities of interest compared to single-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation and state-of-the-art multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods. This holds especially true for quantities of interest that showed limited correlation between the low- and high-fidelity model predictions. In addition, the proposed multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimators are significantly cheaper to compute than traditional estimators, under a specified confidence level or variance. The proposed pipeline for personalized and uncertainty-aware predictions of coronary hemodynamics is based on routine clinical measurements and recently developed techniques for CT myocardial perfusion imaging. The proposed pipeline offers significant improvements in precision and reduction in computational cost.

Bayesian parameter estimation↗

Goal-oriented real-time Bayesian inference for linear autonomous dynamical systems with application to digital twins for tsunami early warning

We present a goal-oriented framework for constructing digital twins with the following properties: (1) they employ discretizations of high-fidelity partial differential equation (PDE) models governed by autonomous dynamical systems, leading to large-scale forward problems; (2) they solve a linear inverse problem to assimilate observational data to infer uncertain model components followed by a forward prediction of the evolving dynamics; and (3) the entire end-to-end, data-to-inference-to-prediction computation is carried out without approximation and in real time through a Bayesian framework that rigorously accounts for uncertainties. Several challenges must be overcome to realize this framework, including the large scale of the forward problem, the high dimensionality of the parameter space, and for a class of problems including those we target, the slow decay of the singular values of the parameter-to-observable map. Here we introduce a methodology to overcome these challenges by exploiting the autonomous structure of the forward model to decompose the solution of the inverse problem into a one-time-only offline phase in which the PDE model is solved a limited number of times (equal to the number of sensors), and an online phase that maps well onto GPUs and computes the parameter inference and prediction of quantities of interest in real time, given observational data. Our ultimate goal is to apply this framework to construct digital twins for subduction zones, including Cascadia, to provide early warning for tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes. To this end, we demonstrate how our methodology can be used to employ seafloor pressure observations, along with the coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer the earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion (discretized with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 9 ) parameters) and forward predict the tsunami propagation. We present results of an end-to-end inference, prediction, and uncertainty quantification for a representative test problem with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 8 ) inversion parameters for which goal-oriented Bayesian inference is accomplished exactly and in real time, that is, in a matter of seconds.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Metagenome-assembled genome extraction and analysis from microbiomes using KBase

Uncultivated Bacteria and Archaea account for the vast majority of species on Earth, but obtaining their genomes directly from the environment, using shotgun sequencing, has only become possible recently. In order to realize the hope of capturing Earth’s microbial genetic complement and to facilitate the investigation of the functional roles of specific lineages in a given ecosystem, technologies that accelerate the recovery of high-quality genomes are necessary. We present a series of analysis steps and data products for the extraction of high-quality metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) from microbiomes using the U.S. Department of Energy Systems Biology Knowledgebase (KBase) platform (http://www.kbase.us/). Overall, these steps take about a day to obtain extracted genomes when starting from smaller environmental shotgun read libraries, or up to about a week from larger libraries. In KBase, the process is end-to-end, allowing a user to go from the initial sequencing reads all the way through to MAGs, which can then be analyzed with other KBase capabilities such as phylogenetic placement, functional assignment, metabolic modeling, pangenome functional profiling, RNA-Seq and others. While portions of such capabilities are available individually from other resources, the combination of the intuitive usability, data interoperability and integration of tools in a freely available computational resource makes KBase a powerful platform for obtaining MAGs from microbiomes. While this workflow offers tools for each of the key steps in the genome extraction process, it also provides a scaffold that can be easily extended with additional MAG recovery and analysis tools, via the KBase software development kit (SDK).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

SYMBA: An end-to-end VLBI synthetic data generation pipeline

Realistic synthetic observations of theoretical source models are essential for our understanding of real observational data. In using synthetic data, one can verify the extent to which source parameters can be recovered and evaluate how various data corruption effects can be calibrated. These studies are the most important when proposing observations of new sources, in the characterization of the capabilities of new or upgraded instruments, and when verifying model-based theoretical predictions in a direct comparison with observational data. We present the SYnthetic Measurement creator for long Baseline Arrays (SYMBA), a novel synthetic data generation pipeline for Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations. SYMBA takes into account several realistic atmospheric, instrumental, and calibration effects. Here, we used SYMBA to create synthetic observations for the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), a millimetre VLBI array, which has recently captured the first image of a black hole shadow. After testing SYMBA with simple source and corruption models, we study the importance of including all corruption and calibration effects, compared to the addition of thermal noise only. Using synthetic data based on two example general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics (GRMHD) model images of M 87, we performed case studies to assess the image quality that can be obtained with the current and future EHT array for different weather conditions. Our synthetic observations show that the effects of atmospheric and instrumental corruptions on the measured visibilities are significant. Despite these effects, we demonstrate how the overall structure of our GRMHD source models can be recovered robustly with the EHT2017 array after performing calibration steps, which include fringe fitting, a priori amplitude and network calibration, and self-calibration. With the planned addition of new stations to the EHT array in the coming years, images could be reconstructed with higher angular resolution and dynamic range. In our case study, these improvements allowed for a distinction between a thermal and a non-thermal GRMHD model based on salient features in reconstructed images.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

BEYONDPLANCK XIII. Intensity foreground sampling, degeneracies, and priors

We present the intensity foreground algorithms and model employed within the BEYONDPLANCK analysis framework. The BEYONDPLANCK analysis is aimed at integrating component separation and instrumental parameter sampling within a global framework, leading to complete end-to-end error propagation in the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) data analysis. Given the scope of the BEYONDPLANCK analysis, a limited set of data is included in the component separation process, leading to foreground parameter degeneracies. In order to properly constrain the Galactic foreground parameters, we improve upon the previous Commander component separation implementation by adding a suite of algorithmic techniques. These algorithms are designed to improve the stability and computational efficiency for weakly constrained posterior distributions. These are: (1) joint foreground spectral parameter and amplitude sampling, building on ideas from MIRAMARE; (2) component-based monopole determination; (3) joint spectral parameter and monopole sampling; and (4) application of informative spatial priors for component amplitude maps. We find that the only spectral parameter with a significant signal-to-noise ratio using the current BEYONDPLANCK data set is the peak frequency of the anomalous microwave emission component, for which we find $ν$ p = 25.3 ± 0.5 GHz; all others must be constrained through external priors. Future works will be aimed at integrating many more data sets into this analysis, both map and time-ordered based, thereby gradually eliminating the currently observed degeneracies in a controlled manner with respect to both instrumental systematic effects and astrophysical degeneracies. When this happens, the simple LFI-oriented data model employed in the current work will need to be generalized to account for both a richer astrophysical model and additional instrumental effects. This work will be organized within the Open Science-based COSMOGLOBE community effort.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

BeyondPlanck: XII. Cosmological parameter constraints with end-to-end error propagation

We present cosmological parameter constraints estimated using the Bayesian BEYONDPLANCK analysis framework. This method supports seamless end-to-end error propagation from raw time-ordered data onto final cosmological parameters. As a first demonstration of the method, we analyzed time-ordered Planck LFI observations, combined with selected external data (WMAP 33–61 GHz, Planck HFI DR4 353 and 857 GHz, and Haslam 408 MHz) in the form of pixelized maps that are used to break critical astrophysical degeneracies. Overall, all the results are generally in good agreement with previously reported values from Planck 2018 and WMAP, with the largest relative difference for any parameter amounting about 1σ when considering only temperature multipoles between 30 ≤ ℓ ≤ 600. In cases where there are differences, we note that the BEYONDPLANCK results are generally slightly closer to the high-ℓ HFI-dominated Planck 2018 results than previous analyses, suggesting slightly less tension between low and high multipoles. Using low-ℓ polarization information from LFI and WMAP, we find a best-fit value of τ = 0.066 ± 0.013, which is higher than the low value of τ = 0.052 ± 0.008 derived from Planck 2018 and slightly lower than the value of 0.069 ± 0.011 derived from the joint analysis of official LFI and WMAP products. Most importantly, however, we find that the uncertainty derived in the BEYONDPLANCK processing is about 30 % greater than when analyzing the official products, after taking into account the different sky coverage. We argue that this uncertainty is due to a marginalization over a more complete model of instrumental and astrophysical parameters, which results in more reliable and more rigorously defined uncertainties. We find that about 2000 Monte Carlo samples are required to achieve a robust convergence for a low-resolution cosmic microwave background (CMB) covariance matrix with 225 independent modes, and producing these samples takes about eight weeks on a modest computing cluster with 256 cores.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

BEYONDPLANCK XI. Bayesian CMB analysis with sample-based end-to-end error propagation

We present posterior sample-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) constraints from Planck LFI and WMAP observations as derived through global end-to-end Bayesian processing within the BeyondPlanck framework. We first use these samples to study correlations between CMB, foreground, and instrumental parameters, and we identify a particularly strong degeneracy between CMB temperature fluctuations and free-free emission on intermediate angular scales (400 ≲ ℓ ≲ 600), which is mitigated through model reduction, masking, and resampling. We compare our posterior-based CMB results with previous Planck products, and find generally good agreement, although with notably higher noise due to our exclusion of HFI data. We find a best-fit CMB dipole amplitude of 3362.7 ± 1.4 µK, in excellent agreement with previous Planck results. The quoted dipole uncertainty is derived directly from the sampled posterior distribution, and does not involve any ad hoc contributions for Planck instrumental systematic effects. Similarly, we find a temperature quadrupole amplitude of ${σ}_{2}^{TT}$ = 229 ± 97 µK 2 , which is in good agreement with previous results in terms of the amplitude, but the uncertainty is an order of magnitude larger than the naive diagonal Fisher uncertainty. Relatedly, we find lower evidence for a possible alignment between the quadrupole and octopole than previously reported due to a much larger scatter in the individual quadrupole coefficients, caused both by marginalizing over a more complete set of systematic effects, but also by our more conservative analysis mask required to mitigate the free-free degeneracy. For higher multipoles, we find that the angular temperature power spectrum is generally in good agreement with both Planck and WMAP. At the same time, we note that this is the first time the sample-based asymptotically exact Blackwell-Rao estimator has been successfully established for multipoles up to ℓ ≤ 600, and it now accounts for the majority of the cosmologically important information. Overall, this analysis demonstrates the unique capabilities of the Bayesian approach with respect to end-to-end systematic uncertainty propagation, and we believe it can and should play an important role in the analysis of future CMB experiments. Cosmological parameter constraints are presented in a companion paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

BeyondPlanck: I. Global Bayesian analysis of the Planck Low Frequency Instrument data

We describe the BEYONDPLANCK project in terms of our motivation, methodology, and main products, and provide a guide to a set of companion papers that describe each result in more detail. Building directly on experience from ESA’s Planck mission, we implemented a complete end-to-end Bayesian analysis framework for the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) observations. The primary product is a full joint posterior distribution P(ω | d), where ω represents the set of all free instrumental (gain, correlated noise, bandpass, etc.), astrophysical (synchrotron, free-free, thermal dust emission, etc.), and cosmological (cosmic microwave background – CMB – map, power spectrum, etc.) parameters. Some notable advantages of this approach compared to a traditional pipeline procedure are seamless end-to-end propagation of uncertainties; accurate modeling of both astrophysical and instrumental effects in the most natural basis for each uncertain quantity; optimized computational costs with little or no need for intermediate human interaction between various analysis steps; and a complete overview of the entire analysis process within one single framework. As a practical demonstration of this framework, we focus in particular on low-ℓ CMB polarization reconstruction with Planck LFI. In this process, we identify several important new effects that have not been accounted for in previous pipelines, including gain over-smoothing and time-variable and non-1/f correlated noise in the 30 and 44 GHz channels. Modeling and mitigating both previously known and newly discovered systematic effects, we find that all results are consistent with the ΛCDM model, and we constrained the reionization optical depth to τ = 0.066 ± 0.013, with a low-resolution CMB-based χ 2 probability to exceed of 32%. This uncertainty is about 30% larger than the official pipelines, arising from taking a more complete instrumental model into account. The marginal CMB solar dipole amplitude is 3362.7 ± 1.4 μK, where the error bar was derived directly from the posterior distribution without the need of any ad hoc instrumental corrections. We are currently not aware of any significant unmodeled systematic effects remaining in the Planck LFI data, and, for the first time, the 44 GHz channel is fully exploited in the current analysis. We argue that this framework can play a central role in the analysis of many current and future high-sensitivity CMB experiments, including LiteBIRD, and it will serve as the computational foundation of the emerging community-wide COSMOGLOBE effort, which aims to combine state-of-the-art radio, microwave, and submillimeter data sets into one global astrophysical model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Preliminary design overview and performance assessment of the ITER low-field side reflectometer

The design of the ITER low-field side reflectometer (LFSR) has matured to a complete end-to-end preliminary design. LFSR will supply three key plasma measurements: (1) electron density profile, (2) electron density fluctuations, and (3) poloidal rotation. Simultaneous measurements of the three quantities are enabled by an array of six monostatic antennas which inject from an equatorial port on the outboard side of the ITER vessel. Low-loss transmission lines, consisting of corrugated, overmoded waveguide and miter bends, transmit the 30–165 GHz, O- and X-mode signals to and from the ITER plasma. Integrated transmission-line components serve a range of purposes, such as protection from high-power stray radiofrequency radiation, accommodation of transmission-line displacement, and simultaneous measurement of reference and plasma phases during the discharge. Broadband transmission signals are realized by full-band microwave transceivers combined with quasi-optical multiplexing. A field-programmable gate array (FPGA) processor demodulates the profile reflectometer signals, enabling real-time density profile measurements for plasma control system feedback. A full-scale transmission line test facility provides an integrated environment to assess the performance of critical LFSR components. Theoretical modeling together with insertion loss measurements provide the basis for a comprehensive power budget, which accounts for transmitted output power, transmission-line losses, antenna coupling, and plasma effects. Results indicate that high signal-to-noise ratios are achievable with the current design. A synthetic reflectometer model, using real design parameters and baseline ITER profiles, has been developed to estimate the return signal. With evolving microwave and data acquisition technologies, full-band, ultrafast sweeps (<1 μs) will be realizable for ITER.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

QProR: An Efficient Framework for Quantity-of-Interest Based Progressive Retrieval with Guaranteed Error Control

Scientific applications generate an unprecedented volume of data, overwhelming the network and file systems’ bandwidth and posing challenges for efficient and scalable data retrieval and analysis. Progressive data compression offers a promising solution by enabling on-demand retrieval at reduced size. However, existing progressive methods either fail to bound the errors in essential quantities of interest (QoIs) derived from raw data or suffer from suboptimal retrieval efficiency. In this work, we propose QProR, an efficient QoI-based progressive framework that optimizes progressive retrieval for target QoIs. Our key contributions include: (1) a systematic framework that integrates error-controlled lossy compressors with bitplane encoding while decoupling the two processes for high flexibility and adaptability; (2) a novel weighted bitplane encoding method which incorperates QoI knowledge into data refactoring to enhance retrieval efficiency; (3) an optimized retrieval strategy that accounts for the varying impacts of different variables on multivariate QoIs; (4) comprehensive evaluations using six real-world datasets from multiple scientific applications and thorough comparisons against state of the arts. Experimental results demonstrate that QProR achieves up to 80.38% reduction in the retrieval size under the same requested QoI error tolerance, when compared with the best-performing existing methods. When transferring 384 GB of scientific data to remote sites, QProR delivers up to 1.68 × speedup in the end-to-end data transfer performance.

Li, Wenbo [University of Kentucky]↗

Weak Lensing And Cosmology In The Dark Energy Survey

In this PhD Thesis, we present studies which aim at understanding and testing the fundamental assumptions of the $\Lambda$CDM cosmological model. We initially show that weak gravitational lensing can be derived as a consequence of General Relativity, and that it can be applied to astronomical data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) in order to constrain the amplitude of matter fluctuations in the universe. This constraint can be used as an end-to-end cosmological test when it is compared to inferences from the Cosmic Microwave Background. We further extend the cosmological model to account for non-standard parameters which can point to novel physics, and use DES data to assess their statistical significance. We finally show that the Cold Dark Matter (CDM) paradigm can also be fundamentally tested with observational data using morphological signatures of disk galaxies in cluster environments if CDM is self-interacting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

MPACT Safeguards Modeling: FY25 Update

Sandia National Laboratories develops and maintains several open-source software packages to support material accountancy analyses. This includes the Material Accountancy Performance Indicator Toolkit (MAPIT), the Fissile Facility Flow Modeler (F3M) and the Separation and Safeguards Performance Model Library (SSPM-L). MAPIT is responsible for performing statistical safeguards analyses on bulk and itemized data from nuclear fuel cycle facilities and can operate on real or synthetic data. MAPIT is the only open-source software for such analyses. F3M is a library of modules, built in MATLAB Simulink, that contain pre made blocks to represent different generic fuel cycle processes. These blocks can be used together in a modular fashion to represent and simulate nuclear fuel cycle processes with the goal of improving facility-level accountancy during the design phase. F3M is also an open-source library. Finally, the SSPM-L library is a series of completed models built from F3M. The library includes facility models such as a generic PUREX facility and a fuel fabrication facility. The SSPM-L library is not open source, but is available to collaborators with a relevant use case. These tools include modeling and simulation pipelines to simulate nuclear fuel cycle facilities and the underlying software needed to simulate measurement uncertainty and perform statistical analyses. Together, these tools can perform end-to-end nuclear material accountancy analyses. This report documents the various improvements made to these tools in FY25. Specifically, we added new statistical test, new statistical modeling capabilities, new fuel cycle facility models, and launched a new open-source model component library.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Predicting Biological Cleanliness: An Empirical Bayes Approach for Spacecraft Bioburden Accounting

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

BeyondPlanck I. Global Bayesian analysis of the Planck Low Frequency Instrument data

We describe the BeyondPlanck project in terms of motivation, methodology and main products, and provide a guide to a set of companion papers that describe each result in fuller detail. Building directly on experience from ESA's Planck mission, we implement a complete end-to-end Bayesian analysis framework for the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) observations. The primary product is a joint posterior distribution P(omega|d), where omega represents the set of all free instrumental (gain, correlated noise, bandpass etc.), astrophysical (synchrotron, free-free, thermal dust emission etc.), and cosmological (CMB map, power spectrum etc.) parameters. Some notable advantages of this approach are seamless end-to-end propagation of uncertainties; accurate modeling of both astrophysical and instrumental effects in the most natural basis for each uncertain quantity; optimized computational costs with little or no need for intermediate human interaction between various analysis steps; and a complete overview of the entire analysis process within one single framework. As a practical demonstration of this framework, we focus in particular on low-l CMB polarization reconstruction, paying special attention to the LFI 44 GHz channel. We find evidence of significant residual systematic effects that are still not accounted for in the current processing, but must be addressed in future work. These include a break-down of the 1/f correlated noise model at 30 and 44 GHz, and scan-aligned stripes in the Southern Galactic hemisphere at 44 GHz. On the Northern hemisphere, however, we find that all results are consistent with the LCDM model, and we constrain the reionization optical depth to tau = 0.067 +/- 0.016, with a low-resolution chi-squared probability-to-exceed of 16%. The marginal CMB dipole amplitude is 3359.5 +/- 1.9 uK. (Abridged.)

Andersen, KJ↗

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗