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The author expresses his views on future energy demand on the west coast of the United States and how that energy demand translates into demand for major fuels. He identifies the major uncertainties in determining what future demands may be. The major supply options that are available to meet projected demands and the policy implications that flow from these options are discussed.
A recent history of electricity forecasting in California is given. Dealing with forecasts and regulatory uncertainty is discussed. Graphs are presented for: (1) Los Angeles Department of Water and Power and Pacific Gas and Electric present and projected reserve margins; (2) California electricity peak demand forecast; and (3) California electricity production.
With the increasing awareness for sustainable future and green energy, the demand for electric vehicles (EVs) is growing rapidly, thus placing immense pressure on the energy grid. To alleviate this, local trading between EVs should be encouraged. In this paper, we propose a blockchain and public key infrastructure (PKI)-based secure vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) energy-trading protocol. A permissioned blockchain utilizing the proof of authority (PoA) consensus and smart contracts is used to securely store data. Encrypted communication is ensured through transport layer security (TLS), with PKI managing the necessary digital certificates and keys. A multi-leader, multi-follower Stackelberg game-based trade algorithm is formulated to determine the optimal energy demands, supplies, and prices. Finally, we propose a detailed communication protocol that ties all the components together, enabling smooth interaction between them. Key findings, such as system behavior and performance, scalability of the trade algorithm and the blockchain, smart contract execution costs, etc., are presented through numerical results by implementing and simulating the protocol in various scenarios. This work not only enhances local energy trading among EVs, encouraging efficient energy usage and reducing burden on the power grid, but also paves a way for future research in sustainable energy management.
The exploitation of natural gas resources to supply energy demands has resulted in the need to engineer pipelines and plants capable of handling extremely high pressures and throughputs. Consequently, more attention has been directed to evaluating the consequences of releases of material whether accidental or deliberate in nature. An important aspect of assessing the consequences of a release is an understanding of how gas disperses in the atmosphere over a wide range of release and atmospheric conditions. The most cost effective way of providing such information is through the development and use of reliable theoretical prediction methods. The need for some form of remote sensing device was identified. The various possibilities studied led to the conclusion that LIDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) offered the most suitable method. The system designed and built is described, and its recent use in monitoring operational ventings from a high pressure transmission system is discussed.
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Electricity from a diversity of sources is increasingly utilized due to its low cost. However, since much of this energy is intermittently generated, there is a mismatch between energy demand and supply. Cheap intermittent energy offers opportunities to utilize this energy and generate value-added chemicals. Low-cost electricity can be used to chemically reduce CO2 to formate and methanol, which then can be upgraded to useful chemicals. To utilize formate for production of valuable chemicals, we decided to focus on Clostridium ljungdahlii as our host organism due to several advantages: it can already utilize formate under some conditions, it has the most developed genetic system for acetogens, and is a model organism for the Wood-Ljungdahl Pathway, the most efficient anaerobic carbon fixation pathway. Formate is a feedstock for a variety of bacteria and has several advantages to gaseous electrochemical products, including ease of storage and miscibility in liquid. Acetogens naturally take C1 compounds and convert them to higher chain products through acetyl-CoA, which is a precursor to many valuable products including carboxylic acids and alcohols. For this project, as a proof of concept, we are focusing on converting formate to butanol. This task primarily relies on two parts: improving formate utilization and installing a butanol pathway. First, we characterized the conditions of native formate utilization in C. ljungdahlii. We also have begun working on genetic tools to delete and express genes.
The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform
Community and city leaders are interested in achieving sustainability goals, providing resilient energy infrastructure, and improving economic competitiveness. Community-level data acquisition and analysis can provide energy and associated benefits that are not possible at the single building level. However, there is a lack of organizational structure, common semantic data models, interoperable systems, and methods to support data-driven decision-making for community-scale energy supply and demand systems. We explored the need and opportunity for a Community Energy Operations and Planning System (Community EOPS), a potential data exchange platform. We conducted “customer discovery” interviews, and reviewed literature, public tools, and technology platforms to identify key energy data “users” and use cases in communities. The key users of the Community EOPS could be developers of mixed-use districts, corporate, defense and university campus energy managers, and city managers of cities that own their energy utility. The value could be for community planning and reporting (for energy data-integrated land use planning and community infrastructure investments in microgrids, storage, district heating and cooling), energy efficiency (leveraging optimizations for community scale energy supply and demand), flexible load management (grid-edge load management to offset, shift, and flatten loads for multiple buildings and EV fleets), cost savings and revenue generation (participating in grid services), and social benefits such as energy resilience, equity, and awareness. We developed a conceptual Community EOPS architecture with recommendations for streamlined and prioritized data acquisition, sharing, and integration driven by prioritized use cases, common metrics, and actionable visualizations that can provide value to a community’s users.
The integration of renewable energy sources into power grids necessitates solutions for grid support and stability during fluctuations in electricity generation and demand. Gravity energy storage systems (GESS) are emerging as a promising technology for managing the balance between energy supply and demand. However, their capacity to optimize energy flow and offer voltage and frequency regulation amid imbalances in generation and demand is less reported. This paper investigates the control of GESS for optimizing energy flow during voltage and frequency regulation. The study evaluates the regulation capabilities of GESS with different motor inertias during a Texas grid event: one with a high-speed, low-inertia motor and another with a low-speed, high-inertia motor. Results indicate that both GESS scenarios provide fast frequency response by converting potential energy into kinetic energy and vice versa, with a response time of 1.5 s from the frequency variation. This aligns with grid requirements for primary frequency response from traditional synchronous generators and motors with large inertia. Furthermore, a GESS based on a high-inertia motor may be able to operate over a broader range of frequency variations, whereas a low-inertia system may be limited by thermal constraints of the motor.
The integration of renewable energy sources into power grids necessitates solutions for grid support and stability during fluctuations in electricity generation and demand. Gravity energy storage systems (GESS) are emerging as a promising technology for managing the balance between energy supply and demand. However, their capacity to optimize energy flow and offer voltage and frequency regulation amid imbalances in generation and demand is less reported. This paper investigates the control of GESS for optimizing energy flow during voltage and frequency regulation. The study evaluates the regulation capabilities of GESS with different motor inertias during a Texas grid event: one with a high-speed, low-inertia motor and another with a low-speed, high-inertia motor. Results indicate that both GESS scenarios provide fast frequency response by converting potential energy into kinetic energy and vice versa, with a response time of 1.5 s from the frequency variation. This aligns with grid requirements for primary frequency response from traditional synchronous generators and motors with large inertia. Furthermore, a GESS based on a highinertia motor may be able to operate over a broader range of frequency variations, whereas a low-inertia system may be limited by thermal constraints of the motor.
In this paper, a demand driven energy management (DDEM) technique is implemented on modular parallel input parallel output DC/DC auxiliary power supply (APS) structure. In this method, modules are brought in/out of the operation making them operate under high loading conditions, avoiding low efficiency under light load. Such a method finds its application in power conservative systems with variable load. Implementation of DDEM and the energy saved is shown using APS comprised of two 15W commercially off-the-shelf DC-DC modules, with 100–1000 VDC input and 24 V output voltage. Along with the DDEM, the lifetime of the power stage devices is controlled minimizing their junction temperature swing through control of cooling system. This control method uses digital twin as interface to virtualize the power devices loading operation/ health condition. Accordingly, no extra sensor or closed loop control required to measure the junction temperature of the devices or feedback the losses to the cooling flow.
The integration of renewable energy sources into power grids necessitates solutions for grid support and stability during fluctuations in electricity generation and demand. Gravity energy storage systems (GESS) are emerging as a promising technology for managing the balance between the energy supply and demand. However, their capacity to optimize energy flow and offer voltage and frequency regulation amid generation-demand imbalances is less reported. This paper investigates the control of GESS for optimizing energy flow during voltage and frequency regulation. The study evaluates the regulation capabilities of GESS with different motor inertias during a Texas grid event: one with a high-speed, low-inertia motor and another with a low-speed, high-inertia motor. Results indicate that both GESS systems provide fast frequency response by converting potential energy into kinetic energy and vice versa, with a response time of 1.5 seconds from the frequency variation. This aligns with grid requirements for primary frequency response from traditional synchronous generators and motors with large inertia. Furthermore, a GESS with a high-inertia motor may be able operate over a broader range of frequency variations whereas a low-inertia system may be limited by thermal constraints of the motor.
Latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) using phase change material (PCM) has attracted increased attention as a viable solution for overcoming the mismatch between energy supply and demand for renewable energy-based systems. PCM-embedded heat exchangers (PCM-HX) have the potential to significantly improve thermal performance due to high storage capacity and low temperature variation during the phase change process. Most models for simulating LHTES heat transfer use Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations, which have high computational costs resulting from considering the complex and time-dependent physics relevant to PCM-HXs. In this paper, a Generalized Resistance Capacitance-based Model (GRCM) was developed to predict the thermal performance of arbitrary PCM-HXs in a computationally efficient manner without compromising modeling accuracy. The GRCM is exercised for three case studies: (i) verification for a single-slabbed finned PCM-HX, (ii) verification and validation for a copper foam/paraffin composite PCM-HX, and (iii) validation for a straight tube annular finned PCM-HX. The copper foam PCM-HX uses an electric heater at the top of HX, while the other two configurations utilize water as heat transfer fluid. For the single-slabbed finned PCM-HX melting case, the mean deviation in average PCM temperature predicted by the GRCM compared to the CFD model was between 0.56 – 0.73 K, with maximum temperature deviation of 2.68 K. For the HTF outlet temperature, the validation results showed that GRCM prediction matches very well with experimental data, with mean temperature deviation of 0.24 K during melting case, while for solidification case was 0.34 K. These results showcase the GRCM’s capability for accurately reproducing the thermal characteristics of PCM-HXs with considerably lower computational effort.
Powered By PRAS features the Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS), an open-source, research-oriented collection of tools for analyzing the resource adequacy of bulk power systems. PRAS performs low-fidelity, high-speed simulations of multi-region power system operations, considering hundreds of thousands of years of unplanned resource outages to quantify the risk and potential nature of energy supply shortfalls in probabilistic terms.
Two projections of future hydrogen demand, based on the Ford technical fix and the Westinghouse nuclear electric economy energy supply and demand scenarios, are analyzed. It is suggested that hydrogen use will increase during the remainder of this century by at least a factor of five, and perhaps by a factor of twenty. Primary energy sources for producing hydrogen are discussed in terms of the transition from low to high demand for hydrogen.
Abstract The global shift to electricity as the main energy carrier will require innovation in electrochemical energy storage (EES). EES systems are the key to the “electron energy economy,” minimizing losses and increasing reliability between energy supply and demand. However, steep challenges such as cost, cycle/calendar life, energy density, material availability, and safety limit widespread adoption of batteries for large-scale grid and vehicle applications. Battery innovation that meets today’s challenges will require new chemistries, which can originate from understanding charge transport phenomena at multiple time and length scales. The advancement of operando characterization can expedite this progress as changes can be observed during battery function. This article highlights progress in bulk and interfacial operando characterization of batteries. Specifically, a case study involving Fe 3 O 4 is provided demonstrating that combining X-ray absorption spectroscopy and isothermal microcalorimetry can provide real-time characterization of productive faradaic redox processes and parasitic interfacial reactions during (de)lithiation. Graphic abstract
Anticipated U.S. demands for non-renewable energy and mineral resources exceed domestic supplies essential for economic growth. For the long term changes necessary in the energy supply and demand gap, new technologies and substitute materials as well as legislation and socio-economic strategies are elaborated.
The integration of heat pumps with thermal energy storage (HP-TES) systems is gaining attention as a viable solution for managing peak building demand driven by immense cooling and heating loads. With growing reliance on renewable energy sources, thermal energy storage offers an excellent opportunity to mitigate mismatches in thermal load between energy supply and demand. The use of phase-change material (PCM) TES is especially promising, as PCMs offer significant latent energy storage capacity with smaller temperature glides in smaller volumes compared to other TES technologies. However, challenges arise because current HP-TES architectures can load-shift only cooling or heating, not both, requiring two systems and thus doubling cost, weight, and footprint. Furthermore, current research efforts lack specific tools and techniques to advance integrated systems from concept design to end-user application, focusing on only discharge performance. To address these challenges, this research proposes a dual-mode (heating and cooling) integrated HP-TES system that uses room-temperature PCM-TES as a high-temperature heat source in heating mode and a low-temperature heat sink in cooling mode, thereby reducing temperature lifts and compressor power. Design criteria for PCM-TES heat exchangers were developed, balancing thermal-hydraulic performance with practical constraints such as available building space and weight requirements along with PCM selection considerations such as shipping conditions, moisture exposure, and number of available cycles. A detailed transient model for HP-TES systems was developed to enable rapid annual performance assessments in any US climate zone.