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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification" Willard et al. (2025).

This data release provides all data and code used in the paper " "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantifications" Willard et al. (2025)" to model stream temperature, evaluate, and assess results. The associated manuscript explores the effect of different ensemble construction techniques across different common machine learning (ML) architectures for predictions in unmonitored basins. Modeling was done using long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), temporal convolution network (TCN), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models, and stream site coverage spans 1362 locations across the conterminous United States. The ensemble construction techniques investigated include ensemble by random weight initialization, differing hyperparameters, different random subsets of training data, different subselections of input features, different architectures, and Monte Carlo Dropout. The data is organized into these items items:Code repository and data for the paper " "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantifications" Willard et al. (2025).Code: stream_temp_ml_regionalization.zip contains the code repositoryData to run the code:- data_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "DATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repository- metadata_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "METADATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repositoryData produced by the code and used in the paper:- outputs_dir.zip - contains model output and results (outputs_dir/results), model weights (outputs_dir/models), and all other outputs used for the paper including feature importances.To cite this code, please use the following BibTeX or MLA entries:bibtex:@misc{willard2025streamensembles,author = {Jared Willard and Charuleka Varadharajan},title = {Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification"},year = {2024},doi = {10.15485/2527393},publisher = {ESS-DIVE Repository},url = {https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/2527393}}MLA: Willard, Jared, et al. Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification". 2025. ESS-DIVE Repository, doi:10.15485/2448016.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Large-Scale High-Resolution Coastal Mangrove Forests Mapping Across West Africa With Machine Learning Ensemble and Satellite Big Data

Coastal mangrove forests provide important ecosystem goods and services, including carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and hazard mitigation. However, they are being destroyed at an alarming rate by human activities. To characterize mangrove forest changes, evaluate their impacts, and support relevant protection and restoration decision making, accurate and up-to-date mangrove extent mapping at large spatial scales is essential. Available large-scale mangrove extent data products use a single machine learning method commonly with 30 m Landsat imagery, and significant inconsistencies remain among these data products. With huge amounts of satellite data involved and the heterogeneity of land surface characteristics across large geographic areas, finding the most suitable method for large-scale high-resolution mangrove mapping is a challenge. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of a machine learning ensemble for mangrove forest mapping at 20 m spatial resolution across West Africa using Sentinel-2 (optical) and Sentinel-1 (radar) imagery. The machine learning ensemble integrates three commonly used machine learning methods in land cover and land use mapping, including Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and Neural Network (NN). The cloud-based big geospatial data processing platform Google Earth Engine (GEE) was used for pre-processing Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-1 data. Extensive validation has demonstrated that the machine learning ensemble can generate mangrove extent maps at high accuracies for all study regions in West Africa (92%–99% Producer’s Accuracy, 98%–100% User’s Accuracy, 95%–99% Overall Accuracy). This is the first-time that mangrove extent has been mapped at a 20 m spatial resolution across West Africa. The machine learning ensemble has the potential to be applied to other regions of the world and is therefore capable of producing high-resolution mangrove extent maps at global scales periodically.

coastal environment↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generalizability analysis of tool condition monitoring ensemble machine learning models

Tool condition monitoring (TCM) is an essential research area for the optimization and automation of metal machining processes, and could help manufacturers reduce costs, production time, machine downtime, energy use, and part scrappage. However, TCM systems developed in prior studies have struggled to reach the high level of generalizability which is necessary for industrial applications. This study addresses TCM system generalizability to new machining conditions, how variations in machining and environmental conditions may be used to improve model generalizability, and ensemble machine learning techniques for TCM. Further, milling tool life experiments were conducted using various machining conditions, and the processes' sound, spindle power, and axial load signals were collected. Different machine learning models were evaluated for the prediction of tool wear levels, including four individual models and five ensemble models. Changes in cutting speed were found to display a large effect on model performance, while the chip load showed some effect, and the feed rate had little effect. A simulated noise data augmentation technique for model improvement is applied within TCM for the first time, and resulted in increased model generalizability and reduced overfitting. Across several performance metrics the extremely randomized trees ensemble machine learning model generally performed the best for this application, achieving a leave-one-group-out cross validation accuracy score of 92.4 %, a 10-fold cross validation score of 98.9 %, and an averaged accuracy across 11 generalizability tests of 87.3 %.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inferring the Redshift of More than 150 GRBs with a Machine-learning Ensemble Model

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), due to their high luminosities, are detected up to a redshift of 10, and thus have the potential to be vital cosmological probes of early processes in the Universe. Fulfilling this potential requires a large sample of GRBs with known redshifts, but due to observational limitations, only 11% have known redshifts (z). There have been numerous attempts to estimate redshifts via correlation studies, most of which have led to inaccurate predictions. To overcome this, we estimated GRB redshift via an ensemble-supervised machine-learning (ML) model that uses X-ray afterglows of long-duration GRBs observed by the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory. The estimated redshifts are strongly correlated (a Pearson coefficient of 0.93) and have an rms error, namely, the square root of the average squared error $\langle$Δz 2 $\rangle$, of 0.46 with the observed redshifts showing the reliability of this method. The addition of GRB afterglow parameters improves the predictions considerably by 63% compared to previous results in peer-reviewed literature. Finally, we use our ML model to infer the redshifts of 154 GRBs, which increase the known redshifts of long GRBs with plateaus by 94%, a significant milestone for enhancing GRB population studies that require large samples with redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Novel Active Optimization Approach for Rapid and Efficient Design Space Exploration Using Ensemble Machine Learning

In this work, a novel design optimization technique based on active learning, which involves dynamic exploration and exploitation of the design space of interest using an ensemble of machine learning algorithms, is presented. In this approach, a hybrid methodology incorporating an explorative weak learner (regularized basis function model) that fits high-level information about the response surface and an exploitative strong learner (based on committee machine) that fits finer details around promising regions identified by the weak learner is employed. For each design iteration, an aristocratic approach is used to select a set of nominees, where points that meet a threshold merit value as predicted by the weak learner are selected for evaluation. In addition to these points, the global optimum as predicted by the strong learner is also evaluated to enable rapid convergence to the actual global optimum once the most promising region has been identified by the optimizer. Additionally, this methodology is first tested by applying it to the optimization of a two-dimensional multi-modal surface and, subsequently, to a complex internal combustion (IC) engine combustion optimization case with nine control parameters related to fuel injection, initial thermodynamic conditions, and in-cylinder flow. It is found that the new approach significantly lowers the number of function evaluations that are needed to reach the optimum design configuration (by up to 80%) when compared to conventional optimization techniques, such as particle swarm and genetic algorithm-based optimization techniques.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global fire modelling and control attributions based on the ensemble machine learning and satellite observations

Contemporary fire dynamics is one of the most complex and least understood land surface phenomena. Global fire controls related to climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic activity are usually intertwined, and difficult to disentangle in a quantitative way. Here, we leveraged an ensemble of five machine learning (ML) models and multiple satellite-based observations to conduct global fire modeling for three fire metrics (burned area, fire number, and fire size), and quantified driving mechanisms underlying annual fire changes in a spatially resolved manner for the period 2003–2019. Ensemble learning is a meta-approach that combines multiple ML predictions to improve accuracy, robustness, and generalization performance. We found that the optimized ensemble ML well reproduced annual dynamics of global burned area (R 2 = 0.90, P < 0.001), total fire numbers (R 2 = 0.86, P < 0.001), and averaged fire size (R 2 = 0.70, P < 0.001). Additionally, the ensemble ML captured key spatial patterns of multi-year mean magnitudes, annual variabilities, anomalies, and trends for different fire metrics. Our ML-based fire attributions further highlighted the dominant role of enhanced anthropogenic activity in reducing global burned area (–1.9 Mha/yr, P < 0.01), followed by climate control (–1.3 Mha/yr, P < 0.01) and insignificant positive vegetation control (0.4 Mha/yr, P = 0.60). Spatially, climate dominated a much larger burned area (53.7%) than human (23.4%) or vegetation control (22.9%); however, the counteracting effects from regional wetting and drying trends weakened the net climate impacts on global burned area. The fire number and fire size exhibited similar spatial control patterns with burned area; globally, however, fire number tended to be more affected by climate while fire size more influenced by human activities. Overall, our study confirmed the feasibility and efficiency of ensemble ML in global fire modeling and subsequent control attributions, providing a better understanding of contemporary fire regimes and contributing to robust fire projections in a changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting peak day and peak hour of electricity demand with ensemble machine learning

Battery energy storage systems can be used for peak demand reduction in power systems, leading to significant economic benefits. Two practical challenges are 1) accurately determining the peak load days and hours and 2) quantifying and reducing uncertainties associated with the forecast in probabilistic risk measures for dispatch decision-making. In this study, we develop a supervised machine learning approach to generate 1) the probability of the next operation day containing the peak hour of the month and 2) the probability of an hour to be the peak hour of the day. Guidance is provided on preparation and augmentation of data as well as selection of machine learning models and decision-making thresholds. The proposed approach is applied to the Duke Energy Progress system and successfully captures 69 peak days out of 72 testing months with a 3% exceedance probability threshold. On 90% of the peak days, the actual peak hour is among the 2 h with the highest probabilities.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Implementation of stacked ensemble machine learning for the detection of surrogate plutonium contamination in soil via LIBS

Supervised machine learning methods have demonstrated increased utility for the quantification of lanthanide and actinide elements in atomic spectroscopy applications. This study implements laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for the identification of plutonium surrogate material (CeO 2 ) in soil matrices by training supervised machine learning methods on the recorded spectral data. A bagged ensemble using Random Forest yields the highest sensitivity predictions with a detection limit of 0.015 wt.% CeO 2 . However, high precision in Ce content prediction required the use of a stacked ensemble regression, which provided the superlative Ce quantification model with an error of 0.107% and a detection limit of 0.022 wt.%. Furthermore, the high performance of the stacked ensemble demonstrates its potential to enhance the accuracy and sensitivity of nuclear contaminant detection using field-deployable spectroscopic analyzers in real-world scenarios.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity Analysis of Wind and Turbulence Predictions With Mesoscale‐Coupled Large Eddy Simulations Using Ensemble Machine Learning

Abstract Coupling between mesoscale models and large‐eddy simulation (LES) models is increasingly used to more realistically represent the wide range of scales of atmospheric motions affecting boundary layer winds and turbulence that need to be simulated accurately for applications such as wind energy. However, such mesoscale‐to‐microscale coupled modeling frameworks are potentially affected by a large number of uncertain closure parameters. Here, we investigate the sensitivity associated with six closure parameters related to a 1.5‐order subgrid‐scale turbulence closure for an ensemble of mesoscale‐coupled LES. The simulations are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model nested from horizontal resolutions of greater than a kilometer down to tens of meters. Closure parameters are varied to generate perturbed parameter ensembles for two case studies of highly sheared, convective boundary layers observed in the Columbia Basin of Oregon and Washington during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project. Machine learning algorithms are used to explore the sensitivity of LES predictions, considering the effects of the perturbed physical parameters alongside categorical factors such as the case study identity, measurement location, and LES resolution. For the conditions we examine, a single parameter, the eddy viscosity coefficient, is the dominant source of parametric sensitivity and its importance is comparable to the categorical factors for several of the simulation response variables we examine.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Indirect Tool Condition Monitoring Using Ensemble Machine Learning Techniques

Abstract Tool condition monitoring (TCM) has become a research area of interest due to its potential to significantly reduce manufacturing costs while increasing process visibility and efficiency. Machine learning (ML) is one analysis technique which has demonstrated advantages for TCM applications. However, the commonly studied individual ML models lack generalizability to new machining and environmental conditions, as well as robustness to the unbalanced datasets which are common in TCM. Ensemble ML models have demonstrated superior performance in other fields, but have only begun to be evaluated for TCM. As a result, it is not well understood how their TCM performance compares to that of individual models, or how homogeneous and heterogeneous ensemble models’ performances compare to one another. To fill in these research gaps, milling experiments were conducted using various cutting conditions, and the model groups were compared across several performance metrics. Statistical t-tests were also used to evaluate the significance of model performance differences. Through the analysis of four individual ML models and five ensemble models, all based on the processes’ sound, spindle power, and axial load signals, it was found that on average, the ensemble models performed better than the individual models, and that the homogeneous ensembles outperformed the heterogeneous ensembles.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coupled machine learning–ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from US croplands

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N 2 O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high-emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N 2 O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on ~12,000 N 2 O chamber measurements at 17 US Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N 2 O at both training (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha −1 d −1 ) and held-out testing sites (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha −1 d −1 ). Analyses identified six dominant N 2 O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH 4 + , NO 3 - , water-filled pore space, temperature, and aboveground biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N 2 O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N 2 O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2024

A physics-based ensemble machine-learning approach to identifying a relationship between lightning indices and binary lightning hazard

To convert lightning indices generated by numerical weather prediction experiments into binary lightning hazard, a machine-learning tool was developed. This tool, consisting of parallel multilayer perceptron classifiers, was trained on an ensemble of planetary boundary layer schemes and microphysics parameterizations that generated four different lightning indices over 1 week. In a subsequent week, the multi-physics ensemble was applied and the machine-learning tool was used to evaluate the accuracy. Unintuitively, the machine-learning tool performed better on the testing dataset than the training dataset. Much of the error may be attributed to mischaracterizing the convection. The combination of the machine learning model and simulations could not differentiate between cloud-to-cloud lightning and cloud-to-ground lightning, despite being trained on cloud-to-ground lightning. It was found that the simulation most representative of the local operational model was the most accurate simulation tested.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Screening of Therapeutic Agents for COVID-19 Using Machine Learning and Ensemble Docking Studies

The current pandemic demands a search for therapeutic agents against the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. In this work, we present an efficient computational strategy that combines machine learning (ML)-based models and high-fidelity ensemble docking studies to enable rapid screening of possible therapeutic ligands. Targeting the binding affinity of molecules for either the isolated SARS-CoV-2 S-protein at its host receptor region or the S-protein:human ACE2 interface complex, we screen ligands from drug and biomolecule data sets that can potentially limit and/or disrupt the host-virus interactions. Top scoring one hundred eighty-seven ligands (with 75 approved by the Food and Drug Administration) are further validated by all atom docking studies. Important molecular descriptors ( 2 χ n , topological surface area, and ring count) and promising chemical fragments (oxolane, hydroxy, and imidazole) are identified to guide future experiments. Overall, this work expands our knowledge of small-molecule treatment against COVID-19 and provides a general screening pathway (combining quick ML models with expensive high-fidelity simulations) for targeting several chemical/biochemical problems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing boundary condition and parametric uncertainty in numerical-weather-prediction-modeled, long-term offshore wind speed through machine learning and analog ensemble

To accurately plan and manage wind power plants, not only does the time-varying wind resource at the site of interest need to be assessed but also the uncertainty connected to this estimate. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at the mesoscale represent a valuable way to characterize the wind resource offshore, given the challenges connected with measuring hub-height wind speed. The boundary condition and parametric uncertainty associated with modeled wind speed is often estimated by running a model ensemble. However, creating an NWP ensemble of long-term wind resource data over a large region represents a computational challenge. Here, we propose two approaches to temporally extrapolate wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty using a more convenient setup in which a mesoscale ensemble is run over a short-term period (1 year), and only a single model covers the desired long-term period (20 year). We quantify hub-height wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty from the short-term model ensemble as its normalized across-ensemble standard deviation. Then, we develop and apply a gradient-boosting model and an analog ensemble approach to temporally extrapolate such uncertainty to the full 20-year period, for which only a single model run is available. As a test case, we consider offshore wind resource characterization in the California Outer Continental Shelf. Both of the proposed approaches provide accurate estimates of the long-term wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty across the region (R 2 >0.75), with the gradient-boosting model slightly outperforming the analog ensemble in terms of bias and centered root-mean-square error. At the three offshore wind energy lease areas in the region, we find a long-term median hourly uncertainty between 10 % and 14 % of the mean hub-height wind speed values. Finally, we assess the physical variability in the uncertainty estimates. In general, we find that the wind speed uncertainty increases closer to land. Also, neutral conditions have smaller uncertainty than the stable and unstable cases, and the modeled wind speed in winter has less boundary condition and parametric sensitivity than summer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning for postprocessing ensemble streamflow forecasts

Skillful streamflow forecasts can inform decisions in various areas of water policy and management. We integrate numerical weather prediction ensembles, distributed hydrological model, and machine learning to generate ensemble streamflow forecasts at medium-range lead times (1–7 days). We demonstrate the application of machine learning as postprocessor for improving the quality of ensemble streamflow forecasts. Our results show that the machine learning postprocessor can improve streamflow forecasts relative to low-complexity forecasts (e.g., climatological and temporal persistence) as well as standalone hydrometeorological modeling and neural network. The relative gain in forecast skill from postprocessor is generally higher at medium-range timescales compared to shorter lead times; high flows compared to low–moderate flows, and the warm season compared to the cool ones. Overall, our results highlight the benefits of machine learning in many aspects for improving both the skill and reliability of streamflow forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting concrete compressive strength using hybrid ensembling of surrogate machine learning models

This study aims to implement a hybrid ensemble surrogate machine learning technique in predicting the compressive strength (CS) of concrete, an important parameter used for durability design and service life prediction of concrete structures in civil engineering projects. For this purpose, an experimental database consisting of 1030 records has been compiled from the machine learning repository of the University of California, Irvine. The database was used to train and validate four conventional machine learning (CML) models, namely Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Linear and Non-Linear Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS-L and MARS-C), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and Minimax Probability Machine Regression (MPMR). Subsequently, the predicted outputs of CML models were combined and trained using ANN to construct the Hybrid Ensemble Model (HENSM). It is observed that the proposed HENSM produces higher predictive accuracy compared to the CML models used in the present study. The predictive performance of all models for CS prediction was compared using the testing dataset and it is found that the HENSM model attained the highest predictive accuracy in both phases. Based on the experimental results, the newly constructed HENSM model is very potential to be a new alternative in handling the overfitting issues of CML models and hence, can be used to predict the concrete CS, including the design of less polluting and more sustainable concrete constructions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗