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Results for “ensemble optimization”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing ensemble NV − spin properties of fluorescent diamond microparticles by systematic low pressure high temperature annealing

Low pressure high temperature annealing is a means for driving nitrogen and defect diffusion in diamond to reduce internal lattice damage without the need for technically complicated high-pressure cells. Herein, we perform a systematic time (5, 15, and 30 min) and temperature (1200 °C–1800 °C) study of effects of low-pressure high temperature annealing on photoluminescence, spin concentrations, and spin relaxation properties of NV centers in ca. 3 μm synthetic type 1b diamond particles. Annealing in the temperature range of ca. 1400 °C–1700 °C for even 5 min leads to a higher optically detected magnetic resonance contrast as compared to standard annealing at 900 °C for 2 h. Particles annealed at 1700 °C for 5 min exhibit a contrast close to about 13% as compared to about 9% for those annealed at 900 °C for 2 h. A reduction in the zero-field splitting strain parameter from E ≈ 4.5 MHz to ≈ 2.5 MHz and spectral linewidth from Δν ≈ 7 MHz to ≈ 4 MHz are observed even after 5 min annealing at 1700 °C. Improvements in these spectral parameters resulted in a roughly 2-fold reduction in the noise level of temperature monitoring experiment utilizing an ensemble of NV centers in the particles. Annealing in the temperature range of 1600 °C for 15 or 30 min or 1700 °C for 5 min resulted in NV T 1 relaxation times approaching ca. 5 ms typically observed for bulk diamond. Quantitative electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) allowed for estimations of thermal activation energies of paramagnetic center annihilation. Monitoring the primary defect concentration (P1 and other defects with half integer spins) and utilizing second order kinetic modeling, an activation energy of 3.63 ± 0.28 eV was estimated. Alternatively, using the NV half field EPR signal and first order kinetic modeling, a similar activation energy 3.89 ± 0.29 eV was estimated.

NV centers↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Optimized Deep Ensemble for Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Neural Networks: a System Safety Case Study on Sodium Fast Reactor Thermal Stratification Modeling

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are increasingly important to scientific computing and engineering system simulations. Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) for DNNs is critical in safety-sensitive engineering domains. Traditional Deep Ensemble (DE) methods, while easy to implement, frequently suffer from poorly calibrated uncertainty estimates and limited predictive accuracy due to reliance on fixed architectures with varied weight initializations. To address these issues, we introduce a workflow that combines Bayesian Optimization (BO) and DE. The workflow is modular, scalable, and integrates parallel BO initialized with Sobol sequences to individually optimize the hyperparameters of each ensemble member. This method enhances ensemble diversity, improves predictive accuracy, and provides reliable uncertainty estimates. We evaluate the proposed BODE approach in a sodium fast reactor thermal stratification modeling case study, where we used a densely connected convolutional neural network to predict turbulent viscosity during the reactor transient with consideration of data noise. We benchmark its performance against several optimization approaches, including baseline deep ensemble, evolutionary algorithm-optimized ensemble, ensemble formed via random search combined with greedy selection, and a BO ensemble using random initialization. Here, our results demonstrate superior performance of the developed BODE approach. In noise-free scenarios, BODE notably reduces incorrect aleatoric uncertainty and significantly enhances predictive accuracy. Under conditions of 5% and 10% Gaussian noise, BODE adaptively quantifies uncertainty proportional to data noise, achieving up to an 80% reduction in root mean square error compared to baseline methods and producing well-calibrated prediction intervals.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Early events in G-quadruplex folding captured by time-resolved small-angle X-ray scattering

Abstract Time-resolved small-angle X-ray experiments are reported here that capture and quantify a previously unknown rapid collapse of the unfolded oligonucleotide as an early step in the folding of hybrid 1 and hybrid 2 telomeric G-quadruplex structures. The rapid collapse, initiated by a pH jump, is characterized by an exponential decrease in the radius of gyration from 24.3 to 12.6 Å. The collapse is monophasic and is complete in <600 ms. Additional hand-mixing pH-jump kinetic studies show that slower kinetic steps follow the collapse. The folded and unfolded states at equilibrium were further characterized by SAXS studies and other biophysical tools, showing that G4 unfolding was complete at alkaline pH, but not in LiCl solution as is often claimed. The SAXS Ensemble Optimization Method analysis reveals models of the unfolded state as a dynamic ensemble of flexible oligonucleotide chains with a variety of transient hairpin structures. These results suggest a G4 folding pathway in which a rapid collapse, analogous to molten globule formation seen in proteins, is followed by a confined conformational search within the collapsed particle to form the native contacts ultimately found in the stable folded form.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global fire modelling and control attributions based on the ensemble machine learning and satellite observations

Contemporary fire dynamics is one of the most complex and least understood land surface phenomena. Global fire controls related to climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic activity are usually intertwined, and difficult to disentangle in a quantitative way. Here, we leveraged an ensemble of five machine learning (ML) models and multiple satellite-based observations to conduct global fire modeling for three fire metrics (burned area, fire number, and fire size), and quantified driving mechanisms underlying annual fire changes in a spatially resolved manner for the period 2003–2019. Ensemble learning is a meta-approach that combines multiple ML predictions to improve accuracy, robustness, and generalization performance. We found that the optimized ensemble ML well reproduced annual dynamics of global burned area (R 2 = 0.90, P < 0.001), total fire numbers (R 2 = 0.86, P < 0.001), and averaged fire size (R 2 = 0.70, P < 0.001). Additionally, the ensemble ML captured key spatial patterns of multi-year mean magnitudes, annual variabilities, anomalies, and trends for different fire metrics. Our ML-based fire attributions further highlighted the dominant role of enhanced anthropogenic activity in reducing global burned area (–1.9 Mha/yr, P < 0.01), followed by climate control (–1.3 Mha/yr, P < 0.01) and insignificant positive vegetation control (0.4 Mha/yr, P = 0.60). Spatially, climate dominated a much larger burned area (53.7%) than human (23.4%) or vegetation control (22.9%); however, the counteracting effects from regional wetting and drying trends weakened the net climate impacts on global burned area. The fire number and fire size exhibited similar spatial control patterns with burned area; globally, however, fire number tended to be more affected by climate while fire size more influenced by human activities. Overall, our study confirmed the feasibility and efficiency of ensemble ML in global fire modeling and subsequent control attributions, providing a better understanding of contemporary fire regimes and contributing to robust fire projections in a changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spotlight: efficient automated global optimization in rietveld analysis of diffraction data

Performing reliable Rietveld analysis on tens or hundreds of powder diffraction datasets from parametric or time-resolved experiments often poses a bottleneck in extracting meaningful results from the data. While automated analysis of data has recently been demonstrated, high temperature annealing studies, during which phase transformations occur and lattice parameters may change due to repartitioning of elements, are prime examples where automation by a simple phase identification from a database of room temperature structures or automation by sequential refinements is likely to fail. To enable reliable, efficient, automated Rietveld analysis, we present a Python package named Spotlight , building on established Rietveld packages such as MAUD, GSAS , or GSAS-II , which extends the refinement of best fit parameters to a global optimization using an ensemble of optimizers leveraging hierarchical parallel execution on high-performance computing clusters. Spotlight further enables the efficient design of refinement plans through the iterative automated machine-learning of a surrogate for the refinement on which the global optimizations are performed until results from the surrogate converge to the response surface data. We demonstrate Spotlight with the analysis of uranium molybdenum and Ti–6Al–4V datasets, as well as in two open-source tutorials analyzing aluminium oxide and lead sulphate.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimal Power Management of Battery Energy Storage Systems via Ensemble Kalman Inversion

Optimal power management of battery energy storage systems (BESS) is crucial for their safe and efficient operation. Numerical optimization techniques are frequently utilized to solve the optimal power management problems. However, these techniques often fall short of delivering real-time solutions for large-scale BESS due to their computational complexity. To address this issue, this paper proposes a computationally efficient approach. We introduce a new set of decision variables called power-sharing ratios corresponding to each cell, indicating their allocated power share from the output power demand. We then formulate an optimal power management problem to minimize the system-wide power losses while ensuring compliance with safety, balancing, and power supply-demand match constraints. To efficiently solve this problem, a parametrized control policy is designed and leveraged to transform the optimal power management problem into a parameter estimation problem. We then implement the ensemble Kalman inversion to estimate the optimal parameter set. The proposed approach significantly reduces computational requirements due to 1) the much lower dimensionality of the decision parameters and 2) the estimation treatment of the optimal power management problem. Finally, we conduct extensive simulations to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results show promise in accuracy and computation time compared with explored numerical optimization techniques.

Farakhor, Amir↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for multicomponent CALPHAD model optimization and uncertainty quantification

CALPHAD model parameter optimization is inherently challenging due to non-smooth objective functions, high-dimensional parameter spaces, and the need for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Traditional weighted nonlinear least squares approaches are computationally efficient but local, whereas black-box global optimizers and ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide broader exploration at substantial computational cost. The objective of this work is to combine the global exploration capability of gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo – specifically the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) – with local deterministic refinement using BFGS to efficiently optimize multicomponent CALPHAD models with minimal manual intervention. Analytic gradients are computed via the Jansson derivative framework. The methodology is demonstrated on the Cr—Fe binary system and extended to the Cr—Fe—Ni ternary system with 32 degrees of freedom. For Cr—Fe, NUTS achieves comparable or superior optimality relative to ensemble MCMC while requiring over an order-of-magnitude fewer likelihood evaluations. Parameter uncertainties are quantified through NUTS sampling and propagated to thermodynamic observables using local expansion, demonstrating a novel modular approach that combines binary and ternary parameter subsets without requiring global relaxation. These results establish gradient-informed exploration as a scalable strategy for multicomponent CALPHAD optimization and provide a practical route towards efficient higher-order database development with quantified uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Predictive Prescription Framework for Stochastic Unit Commitment Using Boosting Ensemble Learning Algorithms

To take unit commitment (UC) decisions under uncertain load, most existing stochastic optimization (SO) frameworks adopt a generic representation of uncertainty. While load levels that materialize on a particular day are influenced by various covariates (such as the day of the week or temperature), SO frameworks typically disregard such side observations, wasting actionable information that could significantly enhance decision quality. Here, this article proposes a contextual SO (CSO) framework for UC under uncertain load, which can effectively exploit covariate observations in conjunction with a class of machine learning (ML) algorithms to improve the out-of-sample performance of UC decisions. It shows how three ML algorithms, adaptive boosting, gradient boosted trees, and extreme gradient boosting, can be used to this end, constituting the first application of these algorithms in any CSO framework. Using real-world data harvested from the New York ISO grid, we measure the out-of-sample performance of the framework in terms of total operation cost, shed load values, locational marginal prices, and total payments by the loads, against several benchmark methods proposed in the literature. The article has an online companion (Yurdakul et al.), wherein we present additional results and lay out further mathematical formulations used in this work.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unraveling Adsorbate-Induced Structural Evolution of Iron Carbide Nanoparticles

Iron carbide (Fe x C y ) nanoparticles (NPs) are promising candidates for replacing platinum group metals in industrial applications, such as high-temperature Fischer–Tropsch synthesis. However, due to their amorphous nature, characterization of the active sites has been challenging experimentally and computationally. Here, using a combined density functional theory (DFT), neural network interatomic potential-assisted global optimization, and ensemble learning study, we evaluate dynamic surface changes associated with syngas (H and CO) interactions. For this purpose, we have developed a general procedure that we use to model an experimentally relevant 270-atom Fe 182 C 88 NP using the neural network-assisted stochastic surface walk global optimization algorithm (SSW-NN). Once generated, the Fe 182 C 88 NP active sites and particle morphology are thoroughly characterized before the effects of syngas adsorbate interactions are explored by using DFT and molecular dynamics simulations. Lastly, we explore correlations between geometric and electronic features of the active sites and the adsorption of H (H ads ), using a regularized random forest machine learning algorithm. In doing so, we identified the Fe–C coordination number and p orbital occupancy as the most important descriptors affecting H ads . Furthermore, using a combined ML and quantum chemistry approach, our work demonstrates a general and efficient procedure for generating and probing complex surface phenomena on binary nanoparticles.

Adsorption↗
DOE OSTI2026

Online LIBS–ML Framework for Dynamic Characterization of Heterogeneous Waste-Derived Gasification Feedstocks

LIBS−ML framework for real time feedstock characterization during continuous conveyor transport Heterogeneous waste derived feedstocks (e.g., waste coal, biomass and blends) introduce rapid variability in heating value and ash chemistry that affect gasifier operation, yet conventional laboratory characterization techniques are too slow to support proactive control. To address this gap, this study reports on an online, in situ, dynamic characterization framework that couple’s laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) with leakage safe machine learning (ML) regression to deliver real time, decision quality predictions of gasifier relevant properties. A controlled sample matrix spanning two different waste coals, two different biomasses, and engineered blends under two particle size conditions were constructed and benchmarked using standardized laboratory analyses for proximate/ultimate properties and ash composition. LIBS spectra were acquired dynamically as material flowed on a conveyor belt, using high energy 1064 nm laser ablation and shot averaging to improve repeatability and precision. Supervised regression models (multi layer perceptron (MLP) /artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (RF), and support vector regression (SVR)) and an optimized weighted ensemble were trained on emission line feature sets using nested cross validation with Bayesian hyperparameter tuning and validated against an independent hold out set. The proposed LIBS−ML workflow achieves near laboratory predictive fidelity across parametric targets (including higher heating value (HHV), ash content, fixed carbon, sulfur, major ash forming oxides, and initial deformation temperature (IDT)), with the weighted ensemble providing a robust default predictor under dynamic measurement conditions. These results demonstrate a practical pathway for real time feedstock characterization that can enable feedforward adjustments and more resilient gasifier operation for variable quality waste derived fuels.

Biomass↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive Pore Opening to Form Tailored Adsorption Sites in a Cooperatively Flexible Framework Enables Record Inverse Propane/Propylene Separation

A proposed low-energy alternative to the separation of alkanes from alkenes by energy-intensive cryogenic distillation is separation by porous adsorbents. Unfortunately, most adsorbents preferentially take up the desired, high-value major component alkene, requiring frequent regeneration. Adsorbents with inverse selectivity for the minor component alkane would enable the direct production of purified, reagent-grade alkene, greatly reducing global energy consumption. However, such materials are exceedingly rare, especially for propane/propylene separation. Here, we report that through adaptive and spontaneous pore size and shape adaptation to optimize an ensemble of weak noncovalent interactions, the structurally responsive metal-organic framework CdIF-13 (sod-Cd(benzimidazolate) 2 ) exhibits inverse selectivity for propane over propylene with record-setting separation performance under industrially relevant temperature, pressure, and mixture conditions. Powder synchrotron X-ray diffraction measurements combined with first-principles calculations yield atomic-scale insight and reveal the induced fit mechanism of adsorbate-specific pore adaptation and ensemble interactions between ligands and adsorbates. Dynamic column breakthrough measurements confirm that CdIF-13 displays selectivity under mixed-component conditions of varying ratios, with a record measured selectivity factor of α ≈ 3 at 95:5 propylene:propane at 298 K and 1 bar. When sequenced with a low-cost rigid adsorbent, we demonstrated the direct purification of propylene under ambient conditions. In conclusion, this combined atomic-level structural characterization and performance testing firmly establishes how cooperatively flexible materials can be capable of unprecedented separation factors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

ETHOS: An automated framework to generate multi-fidelity constitutive data tables and propagate uncertainties to hydrodynamic simulations

Accurate constitutive data, such as equations of state and plasma transport coefficients, are necessary for reliable hydrodynamic simulations of plasma systems such as fusion targets, planets, and stars. Here, we develop a framework for automatically generating transport-coefficient tables using a parameterized model that incorporates data from both high-fidelity sources (e.g., density functional theory calculations and reference experiments) and lower-fidelity sources (e.g., average-atom and analytic models). The framework incorporates uncertainties from these multi-fidelity sources, generating ensembles of optimally diverse tables that are suitable for uncertainty quantification of hydrodynamic simulations. We illustrate the utility of the framework with magnetohydrodynamic simulations of magnetically launched flyer plates, which are used to measure material properties in pulsed-power experiments. We explore how changes in the uncertainties assigned to the multi-fidelity data sources propagate to changes in simulation outputs and find that our simulations are most sensitive to uncertainties near the melting transition. The presented framework enables computationally efficient uncertainty quantification that readily incorporates new high-fidelity measurements or calculations and identifies plasma regimes where additional data will have high impact.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Classical-Quantum Algorithm for Solving Stochastic Programs

Stochastic programming provides a rigorous mathematical framework for making decisions under uncertainty in a risk-aware manner. Two-stage stochastic programming is, perhaps, the simplest form of this framework. Here the first-stage variables represent decisions that must be made "here and now" in the face of uncertainty, while the second-stage variables are decisions made after uncertain events. However, the broad adoption of stochastic programming has been hindered by computational challenges caused by the two-stage stochastic programming formulation which requires solving an ensemble of optimization problems. Using quantum amplitude estimation (QAE), quantum computers have shown the theoretic ability to compute expectations with Monte-Carlo methods with quadratically fewer samples than classical methods. In this work, we present a quantum algorithm for computing the expectation term using QAE for given first-stage decisions. Further, we detail methods of computing gradient information from the quantum calculation enabling the application of classical gradient-based optimization techniques. The result is a classical-quantum hybrid method of solving two-stage stochastic programs. These techniques are demonstrated with computational experiments based an engineering optimization problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Uncertainty in Simulated ENSO Statistics

Abstract Large ensembles of model simulations are frequently used to reduce the impact of internal variability when evaluating climate models and assessing climate change induced trends. However, the optimal number of ensemble members required to distinguish model biases and climate change signals from internal variability varies across models and metrics. Here we analyze the mean, variance and skewness of precipitation and sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific region often used to describe the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), obtained from large ensembles of Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 climate simulations. Leveraging established statistical theory, we develop and assess equations to estimate, a priori, the ensemble size or simulation length required to limit sampling‐based uncertainties in ENSO statistics to within a desired tolerance. Our results confirm that the uncertainty of these statistics decreases with the square root of the time series length and/or ensemble size. Moreover, we demonstrate that uncertainties of these statistics are generally comparable when computed using either pre‐industrial control or historical runs. This suggests that pre‐industrial runs can sometimes be used to estimate the expected uncertainty of statistics computed from an existing historical member or ensemble, and the number of simulation years (run duration and/or ensemble size) required to adequately characterize the statistic. This advance allows us to use existing simulations (e.g., control runs that are performed during model development) to design ensembles that can sufficiently limit diagnostic uncertainties arising from simulated internal variability. These results may well be applicable to variables and regions beyond ENSO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Inverse design of photonic surfaces via multi fidelity ensemble framework and femtosecond laser processing

We demonstrate a multi-fidelity (MF) machine learning ensemble framework for the inverse design of photonic surfaces, trained on a dataset of 11,759 samples that we fabricate using high throughput femtosecond laser processing. The MF ensemble combines an initial low fidelity model for generating design solutions, with a high fidelity model that refines these solutions through local optimization. The combined MF ensemble can generate multiple disparate sets of laser-processing parameters that can each produce the same target input spectral emissivity with high accuracy (root mean squared errors < 2%). SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis shows transparent model interpretability of the complex relationship between laser parameters and spectral emissivity. Finally, the MF ensemble is experimentally validated by fabricating and evaluating photonic surface designs that it generates for improved efficiency energy harvesting devices. Our approach provides a powerful tool for advancing the inverse design of photonic surfaces in energy harvesting applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗