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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

The Role of the Mean State on MJO Simulation in CESM2 Ensemble Simulation

Here we examine the role of the mean state in the propagation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) over the Maritime Continent (MC). We use an ensemble of simulations made with a single model—the Community Earth System Model version 2—to assess the effect of the mean state that is unaffected by that of model components such as parameterization schemes. Results show that the background meridional moisture gradient is much steeper over the MC region in the periods with a stronger MJO propagation. Column water vapor budget of the MJO strongly suggests that the simulated mean state affects MJO via its impacts on moisture dynamics—a greater advection of mean moisture by MJO wind in the MC region is responsible for the anomalous MJO activity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

An efficient algorithm for simulating ensembles of parameterized flow problems

Abstract Many applications of computational fluid dynamics require multiple simulations of a flow under different input conditions. In this paper, a numerical algorithm is developed to efficiently determine a set of such simulations in which the individually independent members of the set are subject to different viscosity coefficients, initial conditions and/or body forces. The proposed scheme, when applied to the flow ensemble, needs to solve a single linear system with multiple right-hand sides, and thus is computationally more efficient than solving for all the simulations separately. We show that the scheme is nonlinearly and long-term stable under certain conditions on the time-step size and a parameter deviation ratio. A rigorous numerical error estimate shows the scheme is of first-order accuracy in time and optimally accurate in space. Several numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the theoretical results.

Mathematics↗
DOE OSTI2018

An efficient, partitioned ensemble algorithm for simulating ensembles of evolutionary MHD flows at low magnetic Reynolds number

Studying the propagation of uncertainties in a nonlinear dynamical system usually involves generating a set of samples in the stochastic parameter space and then repeated simulations with different sampled parameters. The main difficulty faced in the process is the excessive computational cost. In this paper, we present an efficient, partitioned ensemble algorithm to determine multiple realizations of a reduced Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) system, which models MHD flows at low magnetic Reynolds number. The algorithm decouples the fully coupled problem into two smaller subphysics problems, which reduces the size of the linear systems that to be solved and allows the use of optimized codes for each subphysics problem. Moreover, the resulting coefficient matrices are the same for all realizations at each time step, which allows faster computation of all realizations and significant savings in computational cost. We prove this algorithm is first order accurate and long time stable under a time step condition. Numerical examples are provided to verify the theoretical results and demonstrate the efficiency of the algorithm.

Jiang, Nan↗
DOE OSTI2018

Adaptive ensemble simulations of biomolecules

Recent advances in both theory and computational power have created opportunities to simulate biomolecular processes more efficiently using adaptive ensemble simulations. Ensemble simulations are now widely used to compute a number of individual simulation trajectories and analyze statistics across them. Adaptive ensemble simulations offer a further level of sophistication and flexibility by enabling highlevel algorithms to control simulations-based on intermediate results. We review some of the adaptive ensemble algorithms and software infrastructure currently in use and outline where the complexities of implementing adaptive simulation have limited algorithmic innovation to date. In conclusion, we describe an adaptive ensemble API to overcome some of these barriers and more flexibly and simply express adaptive simulation algorithms to help realize the power of this type of simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

InSituNet: Deep Image Synthesis for Parameter Space Exploration of Ensemble Simulations

We propose InSituNet, a deep learning based surrogate model to support parameter space exploration for ensemble simulations that are visualized in situ. In situ visualization, generating visualizations at simulation time, is becoming prevalent in handling large-scale simulations because of the I/O and storage constraints. However, in situ visualization approaches limit the flexibility of post-hoc exploration because the raw simulation data are no longer available. Although multiple image-based approaches have been proposed to mitigate this limitation, those approaches lack the ability to explore the simulation parameters. Our approach allows flexible exploration of parameter space for large-scale ensemble simulations by taking advantage of the recent advances in deep learning. Specifically, we design InSituNet as a convolutional regression model to learn the mapping from the simulation and visualization parameters to the visualization results. With the trained model, users can generate new images for different simulation parameters under various visualization settings, which enables in-depth analysis of the underlying ensemble simulations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of InSituNet in combustion, cosmology, and ocean simulations through quantitative and qualitative evaluations.

deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ensemble Simulation Techniques and Fast Randomized Algorithms

The major goals of the project were to develop and analyze new ensemble simulation techniques, including trajectory stratification and preconditioned MCMC techniques, as well as develop fast numerical linear algebra techniques closely related to ensemble simulation ideas. The trajectory stratification techniques involve simulating in parallel short trajectory fragments of a Markov process confined to a specific region of space‐time and then patching together the statistics gathered to assemble estimates of very general dynamical properties. We have also developed this approach for rare event simulation and extended the techniques to applications requiring a more general framework (such as electronic structure calculations). The preconditioned MCMC techniques involve simulating multiple Markov chains in parallel and then using information from the ensemble to speed the mixing of each individual chain. The fast randomized linear algebra methods are motivated by the diffusion Monte Carlo technique, but are applicable to finding the dominant eigenvalue of (almost) general matrices. For most non‐negative matrices, the schemes result in an error (compared to the power method) that is constant in the dimension of the problem. For more general matrices, we see a very clear sublinear cost trend in computational tests.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bridging Hydrological Ensemble Simulation and Learning Using Deep Neural Operators

Ensemble-based simulation and learning (ESnL) has long been used in hydrology for parameter inference, but computational demands of process-based ESnL can be quite high. To address this issue, we propose a deep neural operator learning approach. Neural operators are generic machine learning algorithms that can learn functional mappings between infinite-dimensional spaces, providing a highly flexible tool for scientific machine learning. Our approach is built upon DeepONet, a specific deep neural operator, and is designed to address several common problems in hydrology, namely, model parameter estimation, prediction at ungaged locations, and uncertainty quantification. Here we demonstrate the effectiveness of our DeepONet-based workflow using an existing large model ensemble created for an eastern U.S. watershed that is instrumented with 10 streamflow gages. Results suggest DeepONet achieves high efficiency in learning an ML surrogate model from the model ensemble, with the modified Kling-Gupta Efficiency exceeding 0.9 on holdout test sets. Parameter inference, carried out using the trained DeepONet surrogate model and genetic algorithm, also yields robust results. Additionally, we formulate and train a separate DeepONet model for physics-informed, seq-to-seq streamflow forecasting, which further reduces biases in the pre-trained DeepONet surrogate model. While this study focuses primarily on a single watershed, our approach is general and may be extended to enable learning from model ensembles across multiple basins or models. Thus, this research represents a significant contribution to the application of hybrid machine learning in hydrology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Parametric Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification in the Version 1 of E3SM Atmosphere Model Based on Short Perturbed Parameter Ensemble Simulations

Abstract The atmospheric component of Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 has included many new features in the physics parameterizations compared to its predecessors. Potential complex nonlinear interactions among the new features create a significant challenge for understanding the model behaviors and parameter tuning. Using the one‐at‐a‐time method, the benefit of tuning one parameter may offset the benefit of tuning another parameter, or improvement in one target variable may lead to degradation in another target variable. To better understand the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 model behaviors and physics, we conducted a large number of short simulations (three days) in which 18 parameters carefully selected from parameterizations of deep convection, shallow convection, and cloud macrophysics and microphysics were perturbed simultaneously using the Latin hypercube sampling method. From the perturbed parameter ensemble simulations and use of different skill score functions, we identified the most sensitive parameters, quantified how the model responds to changes of the parameters for both global mean and spatial distribution, and estimated the maximum likelihood of model parameter space for a number of important fidelity metrics. Comparison of the parametric sensitivity using simulations of two different lengths suggests that perturbed parameter ensemble using short simulations has some bearing on understanding parametric sensitivity of longer simulations. Results from this analysis provide a more comprehensive picture of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 behavior. The difficulty in reducing biases in multiple variables simultaneously highlights the need of characterizing model structural uncertainty (so‐called embedded errors) to inform future development efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

PySFD: comprehensive molecular insights from significant feature differences detected among many simulated ensembles

Motivation Many modeling analyses of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are based on a definition of states that can be (groups of) clusters of simulation frames in a feature space composed of molecular coordinates. With increasing dimension of this feature space (due to the increasing size or complexity of a simulated molecule), it becomes very difficult to cluster the underlying MD data and estimate a statistically robust model. To mitigate this “curse of dimensionality”, one can reduce the feature space, e.g., with principal component or time-lagged independent component analysis transformations, focusing the analysis on the most important modes of transitions. In practice, however, all these reduction strategies may neglect important molecular details that are susceptible to experimental verification. Results To recover such molecular details, I have developed PySFD (Significant Feature Differences analyzer for Python), a multi-processing software package that efficiently selects significantly different features of any user-defined feature type among potentially many different simulated state ensembles, such as meta-stable states of a Markov State Model (MSM). Applying PySFD on MSMs of an aggregate of 300 microseconds MD simulations recently performed on the major histocompatibility complex class II (MHCII) protein, I demonstrate how this toolkit can extract and visualize valuable mechanistic information from big MD simulation data, e.g., in form of networks of dynamic interaction changes connecting functionally relevant sites of a protein complex.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing multi-model ensemble simulations with observations and decadal projections of upper atmospheric variations following the Hunga eruption

The Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai Model–Observation Comparison (HTHH–MOC) project aims to comprehensively investigate the evolution of volcanic water vapor and sulfur emissions and their subsequent atmospheric impacts and underlying response mechanisms using state-of-the-art global climate models. This study evaluates multi-model ensemble simulations participating in the HTHH–MOC free-run experiment with climate projections for 10 years (2022–2032). Model results are evaluated against satellite observations to assess their ability to reproduce the observed evolution of stratospheric water vapor, aerosols, temperature, and ozone from 2022 to 2024. The participating models accurately capture the observed distribution patterns and associated upper atmospheric responses, providing confidence for their future projections. Model simulations suggest that the Hunga eruption-induced stratospheric water vapor anomaly lasts 4–7 years, with a water vapor e-folding time of 31–43 months. This prolonged water vapor perturbation leads to significant stratospheric and mesospheric cooling, resulting in significant ozone loss in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere for 7–10 years. Comparisons between simulations with both SO 2 and H 2 O emissions and those with H 2 O-only emissions indicate that the pronounced dipole response with upper-stratospheric cooling and lower-stratospheric warming is driven by the combined effects of SO 2 and H 2 O injections. These results highlight the prolonged atmospheric impacts of the Hunga eruption and the potential critical role of stratospheric water vapor in modulating long-term atmospheric chemistry and dynamics.

Zhuo, Zhihong [Univ. of Quebec, Montreal, QC (Cana↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Response of Precipitation Extremes to the Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century Global Temperature Change in a Comprehensive Suite of CESM1 Large Ensemble Simulation: Revisiting the Role of Forcing Agents Vs. the Role of Forcing Magnitudes

The response of precipitation extremes (PEs) to global warming is found to be nonlinear in Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and other global climate models (Pendergrass et al., 2019), which led to the concern that it is not accurate to approximate the response of PE to a single forcing as the difference between simulations with all forcing agents and those that exclude one specific forcing. This calls into question previous model-based results that the sensitivity of PE with warming due to aerosol forcing is significantly larger than that due to greenhouse gases (GHGs). We reevaluate the PE sensitivity to GHGs and aerosols using available CESM1 ensemble simulations. We show that although the PE response to warming is nonlinear in CESM1, especially for the high warming projected in the twenty-first-century, PE sensitivity to aerosols is still significantly stronger than that due to GHGs when the comparison is made within similar warming regimes to avoid the bias induced by the nonlinear behavior. But the difference is smaller than previously estimated. We also conclude that the additivity assumption is largely valid to isolate the PE response due to aerosol forcing from the paired simulations including the “all forcing” experiment when the warming regime is small (e.g., 1°C–2°C in the next few decades when aerosol forcing is projected to decline and becomes a major source of uncertainty for model projection).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

SSAGES: Software Suite for Advanced General Ensemble Simulations

Molecular simulation has emerged as an essential tool for modern-day research, but obtaining proper results and making reliable conclusions from simulations requires adequate sampling of the system under consideration. To this end, a variety of methods exist in the literature that can enhance sampling considerably, and increasingly sophisticated, effective algorithms continue to be developed at a rapid pace. Implementation of these techniques, however, can be challenging for experts and non-experts alike. There is a clear need for software that provides rapid, reliable, and easy access to a wide range of advanced sampling methods, and that facilitates implementation of new techniques as they emerge. Here we present SSAGES, a publicly available Software Suite for Advanced General Ensemble Simulations designed to interface with multiple widely used molecular dynamics simulations packages. SSAGES allows facile application of a variety of enhanced sampling techniques—including adaptive biasing force, string methods, and forward flux sampling—that extract meaningful free energy and transition path data from all-atom and coarse grained simulations. A noteworthy feature of SSAGES is a user-friendly framework that facilitates further development and implementation of new methods and collective variables. In this study, the use of SSAGES is illustrated in the context of simple representative applications involving distinct methods and different collective variables that are available in the current release of the suite.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Diurnal evolution of non-precipitating marine stratocumuli in a large-eddy simulation ensemble

Abstract. We explore the cloud system evolution of non-precipitating marine stratocumuli with a focus on the impacts of the diurnal cycle and free-tropospheric (FT) humidity based on an ensemble of 244 large-eddy simulations generated by perturbing initial thermodynamic profiles and aerosol conditions. Cases are categorized based on their degree of decoupling and the cloud liquid water path (LWPc, based on model columns with cloud optical depths greater than one). A budget analysis method is proposed to analyze the evolution of cloud water in both coupled and decoupled boundary layers. More coupled clouds start with a relatively low LWPc and cloud fraction (fc) but experience the least decrease in LWPc and fc during the daytime. More decoupled clouds undergo greater daytime reduction in LWPc and fc, especially those with higher LWPc at sunrise because they suffer from faster weakening of net radiative cooling. During the nighttime, a positive correlation between FT humidity and the LWPc emerges, consistent with higher FT humidity reducing both radiative cooling and the humidity jump, both of which reduce entrainment and increase LWPc. The LWPc is more likely to decrease during the nighttime for a larger LWPc and greater inversion base height (zi), conditions under which entrainment dominates as turbulence develops. In the morning, the rate of the LWPc reduction depends on the LWPc at sunrise, zi, and the degree of decoupling, with distinct contributions from subsidence and radiation.

Chen, Yao-Sheng (ORCID:0000000208354132)↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Second-Order Time-Stepping Scheme for Simulating Ensembles of Parameterized Flow Problems

Abstract We consider settings for which one needs to perform multiple flow simulations based on the Navier–Stokes equations, each having different initial condition data, boundary condition data, forcing functions, and/or coefficients such as the viscosity. For such settings, we propose a second-order time accurate ensemble-based method that to simulate the whole set of solutions, requires, at each time step, the solution of only a single linear system with multiple right-hand-side vectors. Rigorous analyses are given proving the conditional stability and establishing error estimates for the proposed algorithm. Numerical experiments are provided that illustrate the analyses.

Mathematics↗
DOE OSTI2019

Molecular polarizability in open ensemble simulations of aqueous nanoconfinements under electric field

Molecular polarization at aqueous interfaces involves fast degrees of freedom that are often averaged-out in atomistic-modeling approaches. The resulting effective interactions depend on a specific environment, making explicit account of molecular polarizability particularly important in solutions with pronounced anisotropic perturbations, including solid/liquid interfaces and external fields. Our work concerns polarizability effects in nanoscale confinements under electric field, open to an unperturbed bulk environment. We model aqueous molecules and ions in hydrophobic pores using the Gaussian-charge-on-spring BK3-AH representation. This involves nontrivial methodology developments in expanded ensemble Monte Carlo simulations for open systems with long-ranged multibody interactions and necessitates further improvements for efficient modeling of polarizable ions. Structural differences between fixed-charge and polarizable models were captured in molecular dynamics simulations for a set of closed systems. Our open ensemble results with the BK3 model in neat-aqueous systems capture the ∼10% reduction of molecular dipoles within the surface layer near the hydrophobic pore walls in analogy to reported quantum mechanical calculations at water/vapor interfaces. The polarizability affects the interfacial dielectric behavior and weakens the electric-field dependence of water absorption at pragmatically relevant porosities. We observe moderate changes in thermodynamic properties and atom and charged-site spatial distributions; the Gaussian distribution of mobile charges on water and ions in the polarizable model shifts the density amplitudes and blurs the charge-layering effects associated with increased ion absorption. The use of polarizable force field indicates an enhanced response of interfacial ion distributions to applied electric field, a feature potentially important for in silico modeling of electric double layer capacitors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reduced Models for Chemical Kinetics derived from Parallel Ensemble Simulations of Stirred Reactors

Detailed chemical kinetic models are essential to improve the predictive capability of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and to impact the development of next generation combustion technologies. However, such detailed kinetic models are beyond the reach of CFD codes due to the computational cost of transporting additional chemical degrees of freedom. Reduced order models for combustion kinetics exploit the presence of lower dimensional manifolds in the state space and require far fewer number of scalars to be transported as part of CFD simulations. In this paper, we describe the software infrastructure developed to allow large ensembles of stirred reactor configurations with detailed chemical kinetics. The canonical reactor simulations are incorporated in a workflow with sparse grid and data reduction methodologies aimed at development of reduced order models. We present results from analyzing the results of the stirred reactor calculations for syngas mixture using principal component analysis (PCA) and neural network methodologies. The results show that nonlinear autoencoder model can surpass PCA in representing the original dataset with far fewer degrees of freedom.

Zhang, Pei↗
DOE OSTI2021

Advancing the Predictability of Water Cycle Phenomena via the Application of AI to Model Ensemble Simulations and Observations

AI has the power to identify new pathways to extended predictability of the water cycle via its application to model ensembles together with accompanying observations. We discuss both scientific and technological aspects of this challenge, and address the parts of the MODEX approach involving “Model simulations, evaluation, analysis, and benchmarking” and “Identification of key knowledge gaps”. The widespread incorporation of AI into model analysis will significantly advance Earth system predictability and our predictive capabilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗