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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Multi-Epoch XMM Observations of NGC4258

The goal of this project is to better understand whether the well known, warped accretion disk around the supermassive black hole in NGC4258 is responsible for the observed X-ray absorbing column of gas. The active galactic nuclei (AGN) paradigm suggests that doughnut-like tori obscure black holes, not warped disks. Using radio interferometry, we have mapped the disk and its orientation. Through time monitoring radio observations we are following the rotation and variability in the disk structure. The disk crosses the line of sight to the black hole, if it is clumpy, then we will observe variations in the X-ray spectrum of NGC4258 on month to year time scales. We have reduced 14 epochs of very long base interferometry (VLBI) observations that we use to characterize the structure of the maser-laden accretion disk and its evolution. Five epochs of data remain to be reduced in the next year. We have received distributions of data for two of our four intended epochs of X-ray Multimirror Mission (XMM) observation. Because the first two epochs are relatively close in time, and because community understanding of how to calibrate XMM data has until recently been relatively immature, we are waiting until we receive the third epoch of data before we reduce the several datasets. Delivery of the third epoch should take place late this year. The last epoch of XMM observation will take place in mid-2002. In the next year, we will begin to combine constraints on disk clumpiness with estimates of X-ray variability observed by XMM.

Greenhill, Lincoln J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Multi-Epoch XMM Observations of NGC4258

The goal of our program is to characterize time variation of X-ray emission from the AGN in NGC4258 and to look for correlations with radio emission (maser line and continuum). Characterization of the X-ray properties includes estimation of absorbing column, flux, and Fe K emission line strength. In the past year we have completed reduction of five epochs of XMM data and 42 epochs of radio spectroscopic and imaging data. We obtained four of the X-ray epochs as part of our own program. The fifth epoch is public and was obtained by a GTO program. In addition to the XMM data, we have retrieved and reduced four epochs of data from the CXO archive. The radio data had been obtained with the VLA, VLBA, and Effelsberg lOOm antenna. Taken together, the X-ray and radio data are a unique time monitoring database. We have found that the Fe line faded over the period mid-1999 to mid-2000 and is now almost undetectable by XMM. In this same period, the radio emission showed no unusual activity. We infer that the line emission arises either in a time varying disk corona much less than 1 pc in size or from a portion of the disk well within the inner edge of the molecular disk responsible for the radio line emission. We have found that variations in X-ray absorbing column, source flux, and radio emission are not correlated, from which we argue that the molecular disk is either not clumpy or that it has a very low areal filling factor since it is believed to cross the line of sight to the central engine at a radius of about 0.3 pc. In the past month, the public CXO data we have analyzed has been published by another group, which claims the provocative discovery of time variable Fe K absorption lines at one epoch. We do not see these features in our reduction of the same data or in our own XMM data. This will be emphasized in our publication.

Greenhill, Lincoln J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Linear Covariance Analysis and Epoch State Estimators

This paper extends in two directions the results of prior work on generalized linear covariance analysis of both batch least-squares and sequential estimators. The first is an improved treatment of process noise in the batch, or epoch state, estimator with an epoch time that may be later than some or all of the measurements in the batch. The second is to account for process noise in specifying the gains in the epoch state estimator. We establish the conditions under which the latter estimator is equivalent to the Kalman filter.

Linear covariance analysis↗
NASA NTRS1972

Investigation of the epoch state filter

A navigation filtering technique has been formulated using as state variables the initial or epoch position and velocity of the spacecraft. The estimate of this initial state is then improved by filtering new measurements. The current state may be obtained by a conic extrapolation of the epoch state. Results of a digital computer simulation of the epoch state filter show that this formulation of the navigational problem results in less computer run time and less computer storage space than conventional techniques. The errors produced by this technique have been demonstrated to be comparable to those obtained by conventional maximum-likelihood filtering.

Edwards, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Frozen-Flux Modelling for Epochs 1915 and 1980

The frozen-flux hypothesis for the Earth's liquid core assumes that convective terms dominate diffusive terms in the induction equation governing the behaviour of the magnetic field at the surface of the core. While highly plausible on the basis of estimates of physical parameters, the hypothesis has been questioned. To study this hypothesis, we improve the method which tests the consistency of magnetic observations with the hypothesis by constructing simple, flux-conserving core-field models fitting the data at pairs of epochs. We introduce a new approach that fixes the patch configurations at each of the two epochs before inversion, so that each configuration is consistent with its respective data set but possesses the same patch topology. We expand upon the inversion algorithm, using quadratic programming to maintain the proper flux sign within patches; the modelling calculations are also extended to include data types that depend non-linearly on the model. Every test of a hypothesis depends on the characterization of the observational uncertainties; we undertake a thorough review of this question. For main-field models, the primary source of uncertainty comes from the crustal field. We base our analysis on statistical models of the crustal magnetization, adjusted to bring it into better conformity with our data set. The noise model permits us to take into account the correlations between the measurements and requires that a different weighting be given to horizontal and vertical components. It also indicates that the observations should be fit more closely than has been the practice heretofore. We apply the revised method to Magsat data from 1980 and survey and observatory data from 1915.5, two data sets believed to be particularly difficult to reconcile with the frozen-flux hypothesis. We compute a pair of simple, flux-conserving models that fit the averaged data from each epoch. We therefore conclude that present knowledge of the geomagnetic fields of 1980 and 1915.5 is consistent with the frozen-flux hypothesis.

OBrien, Michael S.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Multi-Epoch XMM Observations of NGC4258

The goal of this project was detection of variability in the X-ray absorption column of the AGN in NGC4258 through monitoring with the XMM satellite. We have accomplished this goal and submitted the results to ApJ for publication in a paper entitled, "X-ray Luminosity and Absorption Column Fluctuations in the H2O Maser Galaxy NGC4258 from Weeks to Years," by Fruscione, A., Greenhill, L.J., Filippedco, A.V., Moran, J.M., Hermstein, J.R., and Galle, E. We have received a favorable referee report and expect the article will appear in 2005. To complete the project, we reduced our four epochs of XMM data for NGC4258, one archival XMM observation, and all existing Chandra datasets for NGC4258 (with the latest calibration tables and a grid of corrections for pileup). Self-consistent reduction of all these data permitted detailed comparison that could not have been accomplished simply by taking published model fits that appear in the literature. To accumulate a broader monitoring record, we combined the Chandra and XMM results with those published for SAX and ASCA. We modeled the Chandra and XMM data self-consistently with partially absorbed, hard power-law, soft thermal plasmas, and soft power-law components. Over nine years, the photo-electric absorbing column exhibited a 40% drop between two ASCA epochs separated by 3 years and a 60% rise between two XMM epochs separated by just 5 months. In contract, uncorrelated factor of of 2-3 changes were seen in absorbed flux on te timescale of years, which suggests intrinsic variability of the central engine. The warped disk that is a known source of H2O maser emission in 4258 is believed to cross the line of sight to the central engine. We have proposed that the variations in absorbing column arise from inhomogeneities in the rotating disk, as they sweep across the line of sight. We estimate from the XMM data that the inhomogeneities are about 1E+15 cm in size at radii greater than 0.27 pc. This is consistent with the estimated radius of the disk crossing estimated entirely independently, and it solidifies evidence that the warped accretion disk is the absorber in this (and possible other) AGN.

Greenhill, Lincoln J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Use of Apollo 17 Epoch Neutron Spectrum as a Benchmark in Testing LEND Collimated Sensor

The Apollo 17 neutron experiment LPNE provided a unique set of data on production of neutrons in the Lunar soil bombarded by Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR). It serves as valuable "ground-truth" in the age of orbital remote sensing. We used the neutron data attributed to Apollo 17 epoch as a benchmark for testing the LEND's collimated sensor, as introduced by the geometry of collimator and efficiency of He3 counters. The latter is defined by the size of gas counter and pressure inside it. The intensity and energy spectrum of neutrons escaping the lunar surface are dependent on incident flux of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) whose variability is associated with Solar Cycle and its peculiarities. We obtain first the share of neutrons entering through the field of view of collimator as a fraction of the total neutron flux by using the angular distribution of neutron exiting the Moon described by our Monte Carlo code. We computed next the count rate of the 3He sensor by using the neutron energy spectrum from McKinney et al. [JGR, 2006] and by consider geometry and gas pressure of the LEND sensor. Finally the neutron count rate obtained for the Apollo 17 epoch characterized by intermediate solar activity was adjusted to the LRO epoch characterized by low solar activity. It has been done by taking into account solar modulation potential, which affects the GCR flux, and in turn changes the neutron albedo flux.

Chin, Gordon↗
NASA NTRS2012

Linear Covariance Analysis and Epoch State Estimators

This paper extends in two directions the results of prior work on generalized linear covariance analysis of both batch least-squares and sequential estimators. The first is an improved treatment of process noise in the batch, or epoch state, estimator with an epoch time that may be later than some or all of the measurements in the batch. The second is to account for process noise in specifying the gains in the epoch state estimator. We establish the conditions under which the latter estimator is equivalent to the Kalman filter.

Markley, F. Landis↗
NASA NTRS1983

On searches for periodic pulsed emission - The Rayleigh test compared to epoch folding

The Rayleigh test has been recently invoked as a method of searching a time series for periodic pulsations. In this paper, this technique is discussed and compared to epoch folding, a technique which has had widespread use in X-ray astronomy. It is found that the Rayleigh test provides a more sensitive approach to the search for periodic pulsations when the pulses are sinusoidal or of broad duty cycle, such as those typical of the pulsing X-ray sources. Epoch folding, on the other hand, is more sensitive to the narrow pulses typical of radio pulsars.

Leahy, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Gradational epochs on Mars - Evidence from west-northwest of Isidis Basin and Electris

An account is given of the characteristics of Martian regions which may be adduced as evidence for enhanced gradation. The crater statistics for these regional surfaces are sufficiently different from those of proximate units with little evidence of modification to suggest, through comprehensive correlation, that a common pattern of modification to crater statistics may be a reflection of common epochs of enhanced gradation. If that be the case, then these areas' gradation occurred during a series of epochs of local-to-global extent whose duration and intensity decreased through time, following the last major impacts.

Grant, John A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions Based on a Bank of Norm-Inequality-Constrained Epoch-State Filters

Sequential probability ratio tests explicitly allow decision makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models 1he null hypothesis 1ha1 the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming highly-elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

Carpenter, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Double Bootstrap Approach to Superposed Epoch Analysis to Evaluate Response Uncertainty

The association between climate variability and episodic events, such as the antecedent moisture conditions prior to wildfire or the cooling following volcanic eruptions, is commonly assessed using Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA). In SEA the epochal response is typically calculated as the average climate conditions prior to and following all event years or their deviation from climatology. However, the magnitude and significance of the inferred climate association may be sensitive to the selection or omission of individual key years, potentially resulting in a biased assessment of the relationship between these events and climate. Here we describe and test a modified double-bootstrap SEA that generates multiple unique draws of the key years and evaluates the sign, magnitude, and significance of event-climate relationships within a probabilistic framework. This multiple resampling helps quantify multiple uncertainties inherent in conventional applications of SEA within dendrochronology and paleoclimatology. We demonstrate our modified SEA by evaluating the volcanic cooling signal in a Northern Hemisphere tree-ring temperature reconstruction and the link between drought and wildfire events in the western United States. Finally, we make our Matlab and R code available to be adapted for future SEA applications.

Dendroclimatology↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Influence of Indian Ocean Atmospheric Circulation on Warm Pool Hydroclimate During the Holocene Epoch

Existing paleoclimate data suggest a complex evolution of hydroclimate within the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) during the Holocene epoch. Here we introduce a new leaf wax isotope record from Sulawesi, Indonesia and compare proxy water isotope data with ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) simulations to identify mechanisms influencing Holocene IPWP hydroclimate. Modeling simulations suggest that orbital forcing causes heterogenous changes in precipitation across the IPWP on a seasonal basis that may account for the differences in time-evolution of the proxy data at respective sites. Both the proxies and simulations suggest that precipitation variability during the September-November (SON) season is important for hydroclimate in Borneo. The preeminence of the SON season suggests that a seasonally lagged relationship between the Indian monsoon and Indian Ocean Walker circulation influences IPWP hydroclimatic variability during the Holocene.

simulation↗