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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Analytical error bars and RSD for neutron multiplicity counting

This article derives the standard deviation of the moments of neutron multiplicity distributions for both random and (shift register) triggered counting gates by propagating the multinomial distribution of errors in the counting distribution. Exact and approximate analytical formulas for the singles, doubles, and triples error bars are given along with the corresponding RSD (relative standard deviation). These analytical formulas provide a simple way to analyze and predict error bars without needing empirical data or simulations. The comparison of these analytical error bars to actual measurement errors can reveal systematic errors that are not being accounted for in the modeling of the data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Putting error bars on density functional theory dataset

This dataset contains submission files and raw output files from high-throughput DFT simulations to analyze the systemic errors in lattice constant, bulk moduli and formation energy predictions for a range of binary and ternary oxides using four exchange correlation functionals (LDA, PBE, PBEsol and vdW-DF-C09). This data was then used as the basis for employing materials informatics methods to predict the expected errors in the lattice constants of the studied compounds. Predicted errors were also used to better the DFT-predicted lattice parameters. Our results emphasize the link between the computed errors and the electron density and hybridization errors of a functional. In essence, these results provide “error bars” for choosing a functional for the creation of high-accuracy, high-throughput datasets as well as avenues for the development of XC functionals with enhanced performance, thereby enabling the accelerated discovery and design of new materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Practical and reliable error bars for quantum process tomography

Current techniques in quantum process tomography typically return a single point estimate of an unknown process based on a finite albeit large amount of measurement data. Due to statistical fluctuations, however, other processes close to the point estimate can also produce the observed data with near certainty. Unless appropriate error bars can be constructed, the point estimate does not carry any sound operational interpretation. Here, we provide a solution to this problem by constructing a confidence region estimator for quantum processes. Our method enables reliable estimation of essentially any figure of merit for quantum processes on few qubits, including the diamond distance to a specific noise model, the entanglement fidelity, and the worst-case entanglement fidelity, by identifying error regions which contain the true state with high probability. We also provide a software package, QPtomographer, implementing our estimator for the diamond norm and the worst-case entanglement fidelity. We illustrate its usage and performance with several simulated examples. Furthermore, our tools can be used to reliably certify the performance of, e.g., error correction codes, implementations of unitary gates, or more generally any noise process affecting a quantum system.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2021

PolyFit: A C++ code for Polynomial Curve Fit with Calculation of Error Bars

In radiobiology, many dose-response results are modeled using the so-called linear-quadratic (LQ)model, which means that results are modeled as a function of dose Das 𝑅(𝐷)=𝛽0+𝛽1𝐷+𝛽2𝐷2. The coefficients 𝛽0, 𝛽1and 𝛽2are obtained from fitting a series of data points (𝑥𝑖, 𝑦𝑖), which is usually done using a least-square method. The LQ and more generally the polynomial fit capability is implemented in many software that analyzes data. However, there are some instances where the fitting needs to be done programmatically. Furthermore, depending on the software used, some features may not be implemented. In this mini-review, I discuss the basis of polynomial fitting, including the calculation of errors on the coefficients and results, use of weighting and fixing the intercept value (the coefficient 𝛽0). A simple C++ code to perform the polynomial curve fitting is also provided. This code should be useful not only in radiobiology but in other fields of science as well.

Ianik Plante↗
NASA NTRS2021

PolyFit: A C++ code for Polynomial Curve Fit with Calculation of Error Bars

In radiobiology, many dose-response results are modeled using the so-called linear-quadratic(LQ)model, which means that results are modeled as a function of dose Das 𝑅(𝐷)=𝛽0+𝛽1𝐷+𝛽2𝐷2. The coefficients 𝛽0, 𝛽1and 𝛽2are obtained from fitting a series of data points (𝑥𝑖,𝑦𝑖), which is usually done using a least-square method. The LQ and more generally the polynomial fit capability is implemented in many software that analyzes data. However, it is often convenient to do the fitting programmatically, especially when a large number of datasets should be analyzed. Furthermore, depending on the software used, some features may not be implemented. In this mini-review, I discuss the basis of polynomial fitting, including the calculation of errors on the coefficients and results, use of weighting and fixing the intercept value (the coefficient 𝛽0). A simple C++ code to perform the polynomial curve fitting is also provided. This code should be useful not only in radiobiology but in other fields of science as well.

Ianik Plante↗
DOE OSTI2019

A simulation-based model for understanding the time dependent x-ray drive asymmetries and error bars in indirectly driven implosions on the National Ignition Facility

Time-dependent low-mode asymmetries are believed to play a leading role in limiting the performance of current inertial confinement fusion implosions on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) [E. I. Moses et al., Phys. Plasmas 16, 041006 (2009)]. These long wavelength modes are initiated and driven by asymmetries in the x-ray flux from the hohlraum; however, the underlying hydrodynamics of the implosion also act to modify and amplify these asymmetries. Here we present here a simulation-based model connecting the time-dependent drive asymmetry seen by the capsule to the measured inflight and hot spot symmetries. This approach is based on a Green's function analysis for which we evaluate the response of the capsule to impulses of drive asymmetry at a series of times. Our model sheds new light on the sensitivity to the drive asymmetry of an imploded capsule, giving a new tool for design. Inverting the problem and finding the drive asymmetry needed to match the experimental data allow us to tightly constrain the drive asymmetry seen by the capsule, providing an error estimate on the result. Doing so, we are able to point out when and how the complex hohlraum simulations start to deviate from what they should obtain to match the experimental data. Ultimately, we project to use this model to make some experimental recommendations to fix the time-dependent low-mode asymmetry of indirectly driven implosions and identify additional measurements to further constrain the asymmetries with a view to improving target design on the NIF.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Double sided measurements and associated error bars for planar samples or subassemblies

Many of the high energy density (HED) experiments use targets with planar components usually in a multilayer stack as the physics package which is at the heart of the experiment. The physics package contains the sample part under study as well as other components as shown in Fig. 1, that when exposed to the laser drive applies pressure onto or shock the main component to take it to the desired state in the phase diagram. These other components may include the ablator, pusher, x-ray pre-heat shield, window or other special components. The components are usually glued together. Currently, experiments on NIF and Omega in the Dynamic Materials campaign use several platforms such as Diffraction, EOS and Strength (Ref 1-3) which all use such planar stack physics packages.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian inference of nuclear symmetry energy from measured and imagined neutron skin thickness in Sn 116 , 118 , 120 , 122 , 124 , 130 , 132 , Pb 208 , and Ca 48

The neutron skin thickness Δr np in heavy nuclei has been known as one of the most sensitive terrestrial probes of the nuclear symmetry energy E sym (ρ) around $\frac{2}{3}$ of the saturation density ρ 0 of nuclear matter. Existing neutron skin data mostly from hadronic observables suffer from large uncertainties and their extraction from experiments are often strongly model dependent. While waiting eagerly for the promised model-independent and high-precision neutron skin data for 208 Pb and 48 Ca from the parity-violating electron scattering experiments (PREX-II and CREX at JLab as well as MREX at MESA), within the Bayesian statistical framework using the Skyrme-Hartree-Fock model we infer the posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the slope parameter L of the nuclear symmetry energy at ρ 0 from imagined Δr np ( 208 Pb)=0.15, 0.20, and 0.30 fm with a 1σ error bar of 0.02, 0.04, and 0.06 fm, respectively, as well as Δr np ( 48 Ca)=0.12, 0.15, and 0.25 fm, with different 1σ error bar of 0.01 and 0.02 fm, respectively. The results are compared with the PDFs of L inferred using the same approach from the available Δr np data for 116, 118, 120, 122, 124, 130, 132 Sn from hadronic probes. They are also compared with results from a recent Bayesian analysis of the radius and tidal deformability data of canonical neutron stars from GW170817 and NICER. The neutron skin data for Sn isotopes gives L = 45.5 $^{+ 26.5}_{-21.6}$ MeV surrounding its mean value or L = 53 . 4 $^{+ 18.6}_{ -29.5}$ MeV surrounding its maximum a posteriori value, respectively, with the latter smaller than but consistent with the L = 66 $^{+ 12}_{-20}$ MeV from the neutron star data within their 68% confidence intervals. We found that Δr np = 0.17 –0.18 fm in 208 Pb with an error bar of about 0.02 fm leads to a PDF of L compatible with that from analyzing the Sn data. To provide additionally useful information on L extracted from the Δr np of Sn isotopes, the experimental error bar of Δr np in 208 Pb should be at least smaller than 0.06 fm aimed by some current experiments. In addition, the Δr np ( 48 Ca) needs to be larger than 0.15 fm but smaller than 0.25 fm to be compatible with the Sn and/or neutron star results. To further improve our current knowledge about L and distinguish its PDFs in the examples considered, even higher precisions leading to significantly less than ±20 MeV error bars for L at 68% confidence level are necessary.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Profiling the molecular destruction rates of temperature and humidity as well as the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation in the convective boundary layer

A simultaneous deployment of Doppler, temperature, and water-vapor lidars is able to provide profiles of molecular destruction rates and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) dissipation in the convective boundary layer (CBL). Horizontal wind profiles and profiles of vertical wind, temperature, and moisture fluctuations are combined, and transversal temporal autocovariance functions (ACFs) are determined for deriving the dissipation and molecular destruction rates. These are fundamental loss terms in the TKE as well as the potential temperature and mixing ratio variance equations. These ACFs are fitted to their theoretical shapes and coefficients in the inertial subrange. Error bars are estimated by a propagation of noise errors. Sophisticated analyses of the ACFs are performed in order to choose the correct range of lags of the fits for fitting their theoretical shapes in the inertial subrange as well as for minimizing systematic errors due to temporal and spatial averaging and micro- and mesoscale circulations. We demonstrate that we achieve very consistent results of the derived profiles of turbulent variables regardless of whether 1 or 10 s time resolutions are used. We also show that the temporal and spatial length scales of the fluctuations in vertical wind, moisture, and potential temperature are similar with a spatial integral scale of ≈160 m at least in the mixed layer (ML). The profiles of the molecular destruction rates show a maximum in the interfacial layer (IL) and reach values of ϵ m ≃ 7 x 10 -4 g 2 kg −2 s −1 for mixing ratio and ϵ θ ≃ 1.6 x 10 -3 K 2 s −1 for potential temperature. In contrast, the maximum of the TKE dissipation is reached in the ML and amounts to ≃ 10 -2 m 2 s −3 . We also demonstrate that the vertical wind ACF coefficient k w ∝ $\overline{w'^{2}}$ and the TKE dissipation ϵ ∝ ($\overline{w'^{2}}$) 3/2 . For the molecular destruction rates, we show that ϵ m ∝ $\overline{m'^{2}}$ ($\overline{w'^{2}}$) 1/2 and ϵ θ ∝ $\overline{θ'^{2}}$ ($\overline{w'^{2}}$) 1/2 . These equations can be used for parameterizations of ϵ, ϵ m , and ϵ θ . All noise error bars are derived by error propagation and are small enough to compare the results with previous observations and large-eddy simulations. The results agree well with previous observations but show more detailed structures in the IL. Consequently, the synergy resulting from this new combination of active remote sensors enables the profiling of turbulent variables such as integral scales, variances, TKE dissipation, and the molecular destruction rates as well as deriving relationships between them. The results can be used for the parameterization of turbulent variables, TKE budget analyses, and the verification of large-eddy simulations.

dissipation rate↗
DOE OSTI2017

OR14-V-Uncertainty-PD2La Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Safeguards and Nondestructive Assay Final Report

The various methods of nondestructive assay (NDA) of special nuclear material (SNM) have applications in nuclear nonproliferation, including detection and identification of illicit SNM at border crossings and quantifying SNM at nuclear facilities for safeguards. No assay method is complete without “error bars,” which provide one way of expressing confidence in the assay result. Consequently, NDA specialists typically provide error bars and also partition total uncertainty into “random” and “systematic” components so that, for example, an error bar can be developed for the total mass estimate in multiple items. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for NDA has always been important, but it is recognized that greater rigor is needed and achievable using modern statistical methods.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optical and X-ray GRB Fundamental Planes as cosmological distance indicators

ABSTRACT Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), can be employed as standardized candles, extending the distance ladder beyond Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia, z = 2.26). We standardize GRBs using the three-dimensional (3D) Fundamental Plane relation (the Dainotti relation) among the rest-frame end time of the X-ray plateau emission, its corresponding luminosity, and the peak prompt luminosity. Combining SNe Ia and GRBs, we constrain ΩM = 0.299 ± 0.009 assuming a flat Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmology with and without correcting GRBs for selection biases and redshift evolution. Using a 3D optical Dainotti correlation, we find this sample is as efficacious in the determination of ΩM as the X-ray sample. We trimmed our GRB samples to achieve tighter planes to simulate additional GRBs. We determined how many GRBs are needed as stand-alone probes to achieve a comparable precision on ΩM to the one obtained by SNe Ia only. We reach the same error measurements derived using SNe Ia in 2011 and 2014 with 142 and 284 simulated optical GRBs, respectively, considering the error bars on the variables halved. These error limits will be reached in 2038 and in 2047, respectively. Using a doubled sample (obtained by future machine learning approaches allowing a light-curve reconstruction and the estimates of GRB redshifts when z is unknown) compared to the current sample, with error bars halved we will reach the same precision as SNe Ia in 2011 and 2014, now and in 2026, respectively. If we consider the current SNe precision, this will be reached with 390 optical GRBs by 2054.

Dainotti, M. G.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Tool for Forecasting Cool-Season Peak Winds Across Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily morning forecast for ground and space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) must issue forecast advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect peak gusts for >= 25, >= 35, and >= 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. In Phase I of this task, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a cool-season (October - April) tool to help forecast the non-convective peak wind from the surface to 300 ft at KSC/CCAFS. During the warm season, these wind speeds are rarely exceeded except during convective winds or under the influence of tropical cyclones, for which other techniques are already in use. The tool used single and multiple linear regression equations to predict the peak wind from the morning sounding. The forecaster manually entered several observed sounding parameters into a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI), and then the tool displayed the forecast peak wind speed, average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, the timing of the peak wind and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed 35, 50 and 60 kt. The 45 WS customers later dropped the requirement for >= 60 kt wind warnings. During Phase II of this task, the AMU expanded the period of record (POR) by six years to increase the number of observations used to create the forecast equations. A large number of possible predictors were evaluated from archived soundings, including inversion depth and strength, low-level wind shear, mixing height, temperature lapse rate and winds from the surface to 3000 ft. Each day in the POR was stratified in a number of ways, such as by low-level wind direction, synoptic weather pattern, precipitation and Bulk Richardson number. The most accurate Phase II equations were then selected for an independent verification. The Phase I and II forecast methods were compared using an independent verification data set. The two methods were compared to climatology, wind warnings and advisories issued by the 45 WS, and North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) forecast winds. The performance of the Phase I and II methods were similar with respect to mean absolute error. Since the Phase I data were not stratified by precipitation, this method's peak wind forecasts had a large negative bias on days with precipitation and a small positive bias on days with no precipitation. Overall, the climatology methods performed the worst while the MesoNAM performed the best. Since the MesoNAM winds were the most accurate in the comparison, the final version of the tool was based on the MesoNAM winds. The probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the warning thresholds were based on the one standard deviation error bars from the linear regression. For example, the linear regression might forecast the most likely peak speed to be 35 kt and the error bars used to calculate that the probability of >= 25 kt = 76%, the probability of >= 35 kt = 50%, and the probability of >= 50 kt = 19%. The authors have not seen this application of linear regression error bars in any other meteorological applications. Although probability forecast tools should usually be developed with logistic regression, this technique could be easily generalized to any linear regression forecast tool to estimate the probability of exceeding any desired threshold . This could be useful for previously developed linear regression forecast tools or new forecast applications where statistical analysis software to perform logistic regression is not available. The tool was delivered in two formats - a Microsoft Excel GUI and a Tool Command Language/Tool Kit (Tcl/Tk) GUI in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The Microsoft Excel GUI reads a MesoNAM text file containing hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours, from one model run (00 or 12 UTC). The GUI then displays e peak wind speed, average wind speed, and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the 25-, 35- and 50-kt thresholds. The user can display the Day-1 through Day-3 peak wind forecasts, and separate forecasts are made for precipitation and non-precipitation days. The MIDDS GUI uses data from the NAM and Global Forecast System (GFS), instead of the MesoNAM. It can display Day-1 and Day-2 forecasts using NAM data, and Day-1 through Day-5 forecasts using GFS data. The timing of the peak wind is not displayed, since the independent verification showed that none of the forecast methods performed significantly better than climatology. The forecaster should use the climatological timing of the peak wind (2248 UTC) as a first guess and then adjust it based on the movement of weather features.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗
DOE OSTI2019

Decorrelating the errors of the galaxy correlation function with compact transformation matrices

Abstract Covariance matrix estimation is a persistent challenge for cosmology, often requiring a large number of synthetic mock catalogues. The off-diagonal components of the covariance matrix also make it difficult to show representative error bars on the 2-point correlation function (2PCF) since errors computed from the diagonal values of the covariance matrix greatly underestimate the uncertainties. We develop a routine for decorrelating the projected and anisotropic 2PCF with simple and scale-compact transformations on the 2PCF. These transformation matrices are modelled after the Cholesky decomposition and the symmetric square root of the Fisher matrix. Using mock catalogues, we show that the transformed projected and anisotropic 2PCF recover the same structure as the original 2PCF while producing largely decorrelated error bars. Specifically, we propose simple Cholesky-based transformation matrices that suppress the off-diagonal covariances on the projected 2PCF by ${\sim } 95{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ and that on the anisotropic 2PCF by ${\sim } 87{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. These transformations also serve as highly regularized models of the Fisher matrix, compressing the degrees of freedom so that one can fit for the Fisher matrix with a much smaller number of mocks.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using lower-redshift, non-CMB, data to constrain the Hubble constant and other cosmological parameters

Here we use updated Hubble parameter and baryon acoustic oscillation data, as well as other lower-redshift Type Ia supernova, Mg ii reverberation-measured quasar, quasar angular size, H ii starburst galaxy, and Amati-correlated gamma-ray burst data, to jointly constrain cosmological parameters in six cosmological models. The joint analysis provides model-independent determinations of the Hubble constant, H 0 = 69.7 ± 1.2 km s -1 Mpc -1 , and the current non-relativistic matter density parameter, Ω m0 = 0.295 ± 0.017. These error bars are factors of 2.2 and 2.3 larger than the corresponding error bars in the flat ΛCDM model from Planck TT,TE,EE+lowE+lensing cosmic microwave background anisotropy data. Based on the deviance information criterion (DIC), the flat ΛCDM model is most favored but mild dark energy dynamics and a little spatial curvature are not ruled out.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1990

Pioneer-Venus radio occultation (ORO) data reduction: Profiles of 13 cm absorptivity

In order to characterize possible variations in the abundance and distribution of subcloud sulfuric acid vapor, 13 cm radio occultation signals from 23 orbits that occurred in late 1986 and 1987 (Season 10) and 7 orbits that occurred in 1979 (Season 1) were processed. The data were inverted via inverse Abel transform to produce 13 cm absorptivity profiles. Pressure and temperature profiles obtained with the Pioneer-Venus night probe and the northern probe were used along with the absorptivity profiles to infer upper limits for vertical profiles of the abundance of gaseous H2SO4. In addition to inverting the data, error bars were placed on the absorptivity profiles and H2SO4 abundance profiles using the standard propagation of errors. These error bars were developed by considering the effects of statistical errors only. The profiles show a distinct pattern with regard to latitude which is consistent with latitude variations observed in data obtained during the occultation seasons nos. 1 and 2. However, when compared with the earlier data, the recent occultation studies suggest that the amount of sulfuric acid vapor occurring at and below the main cloud layer may have decreased between early 1979 and late 1986.

Steffes, Paul G.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Instrument Reflections and Scene Amplitude Modulation in a Polychromatic Microwave Quadrature Interferometer

A polychromatic microwave quadrature interferometer has been characterized using several laboratory plasmas. Reflections between the transmitter and the receiver have been observed, and the effects of including reflection terms in the data reduction equation have been examined. An error analysis which includes the reflections, modulation of the scene beam amplitude by the plasma, and simultaneous measurements at two frequencies has been applied to the empirical database, and the results are summarized. For reflection amplitudes around 1096, the reflection terms were found to reduce the calculated error bars for electron density measurements by about a factor of 2. The impact of amplitude modulation is also quantified. In the complete analysis, the mean error bar for high- density measurements is 7.596, and the mean phase shift error for low-density measurements is 1.2". .

Dobson, Chris C.↗