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NASA NTRS2012

CREME96 and Related Error Rate Prediction Methods

Predicting the rate of occurrence of single event effects (SEEs) in space requires knowledge of the radiation environment and the response of electronic devices to that environment. Several analytical models have been developed over the past 36 years to predict SEE rates. The first error rate calculations were performed by Binder, Smith and Holman. Bradford and Pickel and Blandford, in their CRIER (Cosmic-Ray-Induced-Error-Rate) analysis code introduced the basic Rectangular ParallelePiped (RPP) method for error rate calculations. For the radiation environment at the part, both made use of the Cosmic Ray LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra calculated by Heinrich for various absorber Depths. A more detailed model for the space radiation environment within spacecraft was developed by Adams and co-workers. This model, together with a reformulation of the RPP method published by Pickel and Blandford, was used to create the CR ME (Cosmic Ray Effects on Micro-Electronics) code. About the same time Shapiro wrote the CRUP (Cosmic Ray Upset Program) based on the RPP method published by Bradford. It was the first code to specifically take into account charge collection from outside the depletion region due to deformation of the electric field caused by the incident cosmic ray. Other early rate prediction methods and codes include the Single Event Figure of Merit, NOVICE, the Space Radiation code and the effective flux method of Binder which is the basis of the SEFA (Scott Effective Flux Approximation) model. By the early 1990s it was becoming clear that CREME and the other early models needed Revision. This revision, CREME96, was completed and released as a WWW-based tool, one of the first of its kind. The revisions in CREME96 included improved environmental models and improved models for calculating single event effects. The need for a revision of CREME also stimulated the development of the CHIME (CRRES/SPACERAD Heavy Ion Model of the Environment) and MACREE (Modeling and Analysis of Cosmic Ray Effects in Electronics). The Single Event Figure of Merit method was also revised to use the solar minimum galactic cosmic ray spectrum and extended to circular orbits down to 200 km at any inclination. More recently a series of commercial codes was developed by TRAD (Test & Radiations) which includes the OMERE code which calculates single event effects. There are other error rate prediction methods which use Monte Carlo techniques. In this chapter the analytic methods for estimating the environment within spacecraft will be discussed.

Adams, James H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2014

SEU System Analysis: Not Just the Sum of All Parts

Single event upset (SEU) analysis of complex systems is challenging. Currently, system SEU analysis is performed by component level partitioning and then either: the most dominant SEU cross-sections (SEUs) are used in system error rate calculations; or the partition SEUs are summed to eventually obtain a system error rate. In many cases, system error rates are overestimated because these methods generally overlook system level derating factors. The problem with overestimating is that it can cause overdesign and consequently negatively affect the following: cost, schedule, functionality, and validation/verification. The scope of this presentation is to discuss the risks involved with our current scheme of SEU analysis for complex systems; and to provide alternative methods for improvement.

Single Event Upset (SEU) Testing↗

NASA NTRS2010

Scaled CMOS Technology Reliability Users Guide

The desire to assess the reliability of emerging scaled microelectronics technologies through faster reliability trials and more accurate acceleration models is the precursor for further research and experimentation in this relevant field. The effect of semiconductor scaling on microelectronics product reliability is an important aspect to the high reliability application user. From the perspective of a customer or user, who in many cases must deal with very limited, if any, manufacturer's reliability data to assess the product for a highly-reliable application, product-level testing is critical in the characterization and reliability assessment of advanced nanometer semiconductor scaling effects on microelectronics reliability. A methodology on how to accomplish this and techniques for deriving the expected product-level reliability on commercial memory products are provided.Competing mechanism theory and the multiple failure mechanism model are applied to the experimental results of scaled SDRAM products. Accelerated stress testing at multiple conditions is applied at the product level of several scaled memory products to assess the performance degradation and product reliability. Acceleration models are derived for each case. For several scaled SDRAM products, retention time degradation is studied and two distinct soft error populations are observed with each technology generation: early breakdown, characterized by randomly distributed weak bits with Weibull slope (beta)=1, and a main population breakdown with an increasing failure rate. Retention time soft error rates are calculated and a multiple failure mechanism acceleration model with parameters is derived for each technology. Defect densities are calculated and reflect a decreasing trend in the percentage of random defective bits for each successive product generation. A normalized soft error failure rate of the memory data retention time in FIT/Gb and FIT/cm2 for several scaled SDRAM generations is presented revealing a power relationship. General models describing the soft error rates across scaled product generations are presented. The analysis methodology may be applied to other scaled microelectronic products and their key parameters.

Microelectronics Reliability↗

NASA NTRS1995

Effect Of Transition Density On Performance Of A DTTL

One estimates minimum transition density needed to limit symbol-error rate. Theoretical calculations and accompanying computer simulations provide numerical basis for specification of minimum data-transition density needed for adequate performance of radio receiver processing noisy signal containing non-return-to-zero (NRZ) stream of data symbols (bits). By use of digital-data-transition-tracking loop (DTTL), receiver strives to synchronize operation with data symbols. Performance of receiver in terms of ability to keep symbol-error rate (SER) in output of receiver below specified level depends on symbol signal-to-noise ratio (SSNR) of incoming signal and on degree of synchronization. Ability of DTTL to maintain synchronization depends partly on SSNR and partly on data-transition density.

Nguyen, Tien M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Image sharpening for mixed spatial and spectral resolution satellite systems

Two methods of image sharpening (reconstruction) are compared. The first, a spatial filtering technique, extrapolates edge information from a high spatial resolution panchromatic band at 10 meters and adds it to the low spatial resolution narrow spectral bands. The second method, a color normalizing technique, is based on the ability to separate image hue and brightness components in spectral data. Using both techniques, multispectral images are sharpened from 30, 50, 70, and 90 meter resolutions. Error rates are calculated for the two methods and all sharpened resolutions. The results indicate that the color normalizing method is superior to the spatial filtering technique.

Hallada, W. A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Single Event Test Methodologies and System Error Rate Analysis for Triple Modular Redundant Field Programmable Gate Arrays

We present a test methodology for estimating system error rates of Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) mitigated with Triple Modular Redundancy (TMR). The test methodology is founded in a mathematical model, which is also presented. Accelerator data from 90 nm Xilins Military/Aerospace grade FPGA are shown to fit the model. Fault injection (FI) results are discussed and related to the test data. Design implementation and the corresponding impact of multiple bit upset (MBU) are also discussed.

error rate calculations↗

NASA NTRS1985

Analysis and forecast intercomparisons using the FGGE SOP-1 data base

The First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) data base has provided the research community with the most complete global coverage of meteorological informaiton since measurements were first taken. It is important to understand the characteristics of the FGGE data base in terms of its accuracy and representativeness compared to the true state of the atmosphere. The uncertainty associated with the initial conditions used in a numerical model plays a significant role in subsequent error growth as shown by predictability theory. The ultimate limit of forecast skill is directly related to the initial uncertainty. The accuracy of analyses using FGGE data base coupled with the errors due to modeling imperfections determines the present skill of numerical models. An estimte of initial uncertainty is determined by examining differences in several FGGE analyses. The estimate is then used to determine an ultimate limit of forecast skill from derived predictability error growth rates. Several different calculations of predictability error growth are also compared. Finally, present-day forecast skill using FGGE analyses is contrasted to the estimates of ultimate skill, and the partition of model error versus initial uncertainty is discussed.

Baumhefner, D. P.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Design Calculations for Thermoelectric Generators

Nine simplified analytic models based on average properties accurately predict heat rates for silicon/germanium thermoelectric generators. Solutions from simplified models were compared with those obtained using sophisticated numerical analysis. Maximum errors in calculated heat rate range from about 4 percent to about 0.2 percent. Models also used to calculate power delivered to load and thermodynamic efficiency.

Zeldin, B.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Failure analysis and modeling of a VAXcluster system

This paper discusses the results of a measurement-based analysis of real error data collected from a DEC VAXcluster multicomputer system. In addition to evaluating basic system dependability characteristics such as error and failure distributions and hazard rates for both individual machines and for the VAXcluster, reward models were developed to analyze the impact of failures on the system as a whole. The results show that more than 46 percent of all failures were due to errors in shared resources. This is despite the fact that these errors have a recovery probability greater than 0.99. The hazard rate calculations show that not only errors, but also failures occur in bursts. Approximately 40 percent of all failures occur in bursts and involved multiple machines. This result indicates that correlated failures are significant. Analysis of rewards shows that software errors have the lowest reward (0.05 vs 0.74 for disk errors). The expected reward rate (reliability measure) of the VAXcluster drops to 0.5 in 18 hours for the 7-out-of-7 model and in 80 days for the 3-out-of-7 model.

Tang, Dong↗

NASA NTRS2001

Turbo code carrier synchronization losses (Radio Losses)

In this paper the radio loss results for (8920,1/3), (8920,1/6), (1783,1/3) and (1784,1/6) codes are presented. These radio losses were calculated through simulations for a range of data rates. These simulations included both suppressed carrier modulation and residual carrier modulation cases. The radio losses were calculated for a frame error rate of 3 x 10^-4 for (8920,1/3) and (8920,1/6) codes and 3 frame error rate of 6 x 10^-5 for (1764,1/3) and (1784,1/6) codes. The simulations for the residual carrier case were run for loop signal to noise ratios of 13dB, 15dB and 17dB with a loop bandwidth of 10Hz. The simulations for the suppressed carrier case were run for a loop of signal to noise ratio of 17dB. The results of these simulations indicate that the radio losses for turbo codes are low enough to warrant their use in deep space links (maximum of 1dB loss at 17dB loop signal to noise ratio for residual carrier and 1.3dB loss at 17dB loop signal to noise ratio for suppressed carrier at high data rates). Furthermore, these results indicate that by normalizing the radio losses for frame size, loop bandwidth and the loop signal to noise ratio, a single curve could be used for calculating the radio loss for any given data rate at any given loop signal to noise ratio.

suppressed carrier↗

NASA NTRS1976

Second-order closure analysis of turbulent reacting flows

A reacting shear layer program for a complete second-order closure of turbulent reacting flows is developed. The program uses a typical eddy box model and many of the fluid mechanical turbulence models developed in earlier studies. The computer program actually solves a total of 30 equations, where the numerical integration of the equations is performed by a forward-time-centered space quasi-implicit upwind finite-difference scheme. Results for nonreacting and simple isothermal reacting flows are presented along with preliminary results for propane-air flames. It is shown that the program predictions for simple nonreacting flows are in good agreement with available data. The calculations for isothermal reacting flows demonstrate the importance of including a mixedness correlation in finite rate chemistry calculations, where significant errors in the flowfield properties can result from neglect of the interaction between turbulence and the chemistry. Results for propane-air diffusion flames further support this conclusion.

Varma, A. K.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A passive microwave technique for estimating rainfall and vertical structure information from space. Part 1: Algorithm description

This paper describes a multichannel physical approach for retrieving rainfall and vertical structure information from satellite-based passive microwave observations. The algorithm makes use of statistical inversion techniques based upon theoretically calculated relations between rainfall rates and brightness temperatures. Potential errors introduced into the theoretical calculations by the unknown vertical distribution of hydrometeors are overcome by explicity accounting for diverse hydrometeor profiles. This is accomplished by allowing for a number of different vertical distributions in the theoretical brightness temperature calculations and requiring consistency between the observed and calculated brightness temperatures. This paper will focus primarily on the theoretical aspects of the retrieval algorithm, which includes a procedure used to account for inhomogeneities of the rainfall within the satellite field of view as well as a detailed description of the algorithm as it is applied over both ocean and land surfaces. The residual error between observed and calculated brightness temperatures is found to be an important quantity in assessing the uniqueness of the solution. It is further found that the residual error is a meaningful quantity that can be used to derive expected accuracies from this retrieval technique. Examples comparing the retrieved results as well as the detailed analysis of the algorithm performance under various circumstances are the subject of a companion paper.

Kummerow, Christian↗

NASA NTRS1970

Multipath errors in range rate measurement by a TDRS/VHF - GRARR

Range rate errors due to multipath reflection are calculated for a tracking and data relay satellite system using the VHF Goddard range and range rate (GRARR) system. At VHF the reflection is primarily specular, and the strength of the multipath relative to the direct path can be modeled in terms of the geometry and the surface characteristics, specifically the root-mean-square (rms) ocean wave height. The uplink and downlink multipath introduces phase jitter on the GRARR carrier and subcarrier. The derivation of these effects is reviewed leading to an expression for the rms range rate error. The derivation assumed the worst-case orbital configurations in which there was very little relative specular Doppler. This means that the specular multipath interference was not attenuated by the carrier and subcarrier PLL transfer functions. Curves of range rate error are presented as a function of grazing angle with wave height 0.3 to 0.7 meters and spacecraft altitude 100 to 700 miles as parameters.

Sohn, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Mathematical modelling of flow distribution in the human cardiovascular system

The paper presents a detailed model of the entire human cardiovascular system which aims to study the changes in flow distribution caused by external stimuli, changes in internal parameters, or other factors. The arterial-venous network is represented by 325 interconnected elastic segments. The mathematical description of each segment is based on equations of hydrodynamics and those of stress/strain relationships in elastic materials. Appropriate input functions provide for the pumping of blood by the heart through the system. The analysis employs the finite-element technique which can accommodate any prescribed boundary conditions. Values of model parameters are from available data on physical and rheological properties of blood and blood vessels. As a representative example, simulation results on changes in flow distribution with changes in the elastic properties of blood vessels are discussed. They indicate that the errors in the calculated overall flow rates are not significant even in the extreme case of arteries and veins behaving as rigid tubes.

NASA Center JSC↗

NASA NTRS1970

Multipath error in range rate measurement by PLL-transponder/GRARR/TDRS

Range rate errors due to specular and diffuse multipath are calculated for a tracking and data relay satellite (TDRS) using an S band Goddard range and range rate (GRARR) system modified with a phase-locked loop transponder. Carrier signal processing in the coherent turn-around transponder and the GRARR reciever is taken into account. The root-mean-square (rms) range rate error was computed for the GRARR Doppler extractor and N-cycle count range rate measurement. Curves of worst-case range rate error are presented as a function of grazing angle at the reflection point. At very low grazing angles specular scattering predominates over diffuse scattering as expected, whereas for grazing angles greater than approximately 15 deg, the diffuse multipath predominates. The range rate errors at different low orbit altutudes peaked between 5 and 10 deg grazing angles.

Sohn, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A simple parameterization of ozone infrared absorption for atmospheric heating rate calculations

A simple parameterization of ozone absorption in the 9.6-micron region which is suitable for two- and three-dimensional stratospheric and tropospheric models is presented. The band is divided into two parts, a brand center region and a band wing region, grouping together regions for which the temperature dependence of absorption is similar. Each of the two regions is modeled with a function having the form of the Goody random model, with pressure and temperature dependent band parameters chosen by empirically fitting line-by-line equivalent widths for pressures between 0.25 and 1000 mbar and ozone absorber amounts between 1.0 x 10 to the -7th and 1.0 cm atm. The model has been applied to calculations of atmospheric heating rates using an absorber amount weighted mean pressure and temperature along the inhomogeneous paths necessary for flux computations. In the stratosphere, maximum errors in the heating rates relative to line-by-line calculations are 0.1 K/d, or 5 percent of the peak cooling at the stratopause. In the troposphere the errors are at most 0.005 K/d.

Rosenfield, Joan E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Radio metric errors due to mismatch and offset between a DSN antenna beam and the beam of a troposphere calibration instrument

Two components of the error of a troposphere calibration measurement were quantified by theoretical calculations. The first component is a beam mismatch error, which occurs when the calibration instrument senses a conical volume different from the cylindrical volume sampled by a Deep Space Network (DSN) antenna. The second component is a beam offset error, which occurs if the calibration instrument is not mounted on the axis of the DSN antenna. These two error sources were calculated for both delay (e.g., VLBI) and delay rate (e.g., Doppler) measurements. The beam mismatch error for both delay and delay rate drops rapidly as the beamwidth of the troposphere calibration instrument (e.g., a water vapor radiometer or an infrared Fourier transform spectrometer) is reduced. At a 10-deg elevation angle, the instantaneous beam mismatch error is 1.0 mm for a 6-deg beamwidth and 0.09 mm for a 0.5-deg beam (these are the full angular widths of a circular beam with uniform gain out to a sharp cutoff). Time averaging for 60-100 sec will reduce these errors by factors of 1.2-2.2. At a 20-deg elevation angle, the lower limit for current Doppler observations, the beam-mismatch delay rate error is an Allan standard deviation over 100 sec of 1.1 x 10(exp -14) with a 4-deg beam and 1.3 x 10(exp -l5) for a 0.5-deg beam. A 50-m beam offset would result in a fairly modest (compared to other expected error sources) delay error (less than or equal to 0.3 mm for 60-sec integrations at any elevation angle is greater than or equal to 6 deg). However, the same offset would cause a large error in delay rate measurements (e.g., an Allan standard deviation of 1.2 x 10(exp -14) over 100 sec at a 20-deg elevation angle), which would dominate over other known error sources if the beamwidth is 2 deg or smaller. An on-axis location is essential for accurate troposphere calibration of delay rate measurements. A half-power beamwidth (for a beam with a tapered gain profile) of 1.2 deg or smaller is desired for calibration of all types of radio metrics. A water-vapor radiometer calibration beam of this size with very low sidelobes would require a clear aperture antenna with a diameter of at least 1.5 m if the primary water vapor sensing channel were in the 20-22 GHz range.

R P Linfield↗

NASA NTRS1978

Heating due to the 9.6 micron ozone band in an inhomogeneous atmosphere - A new approximation

The Curtis-Godson (1953) method, when applied to the 9.6-micron ozone band, yields large errors. Kuriyan et al. (1977) suggested a method improving this result and yet retaining the analytic simplicity of the transmission function. In this paper, the analytic form of the derivative of the transmission function is obtained and then the heating rates are calculated with the new approximation. The errors in this case are negligibly small. Algebraic manipulation enables the reduction of this approximation to a form similar to that proposed by Goody (1964). This procedure permits interpretation of the boundary conditions in physical terms.

Kuriyan, J. G.↗