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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty Error Modeling for Non-Linear State Estimation With Unsynchronized SCADA and µPMU Measurements

Distribution systems of the future smart grid require enhancements to the reliability of distribution system state estimation (DSSE) in the face of low measurement redundancy, unsynchronized measurements, and dynamic load profiles. Micro phasor measurement units (µPMUs) facilitate co-synchronized measurements with high granularity, albeit at an often prohibitively expensive installation cost. Supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) measurements can supplement µPMU data, although they are received at a slower sampling rate. Further complicating matters is the uncertainty associated with load dynamics and unsynchronized measurements–not only are the SCADA and µPMU measurements not synchronized with each other, but the SCADA measurements themselves are received at different time intervals with respect to one another. This paper proposes a non-linear state estimation framework which models dynamic load uncertainty error by updating the variances of the unsynchronized measurements, leading to a time-varying system of weights in the weighted least squares state estimator. Case studies are performed on the 33-Bus Distribution System in MATPOWER, using Ornstein–Uhlenbeck stochastic processes to simulate dynamic load conditions.

Cooper, Austin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simultaneous inference of equation of state parameters and unknown data errors with uncertainty quantification via hierarchical Bayesian posterior maximization

Equations of state (EOSs) are a key component in running hydrodynamic simulations as they relate the thermodynamic states for the material. The Davis reactants EOS is commonly used for modeling high explosives (HEs), and the EOS model parameters are calibrated using material specific data. The calibrations are often performed with uncertainty quantification via Bayesian inference to account for uncertainty in the data and generate ensembles of likely parameters. However, there are relatively few HE data sets to use for calibration and many are historical and lack error information. In this work, we simultaneously calibrate the Davis reactants EOS model parameters and unknown data error terms for the high explosive PBX 9501. To quantify the uncertainty in the models and the data, we use a Bayesian framework for the calibration and compute the hierarchical Bayesian posterior distribution with both a posteriori maximization approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. In general, we find that, given our assumptions, the two approaches result in similar calibrated parameters, posterior covariance matrices, and insights about the parameters but that the posterior maximization requires far less computational resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Factor-Coupled, Ahead-of-Time Aggregation of Power Flexibility Under Forecast Uncertainty

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) is significantly reshaping the role of distribution systems under active energy management. To aggregate the active-reactive power flexibility of DERs dispersed at the feeder and provide capacity support to the transmission system, it is essential to efficiently identify feasible substation power injection trajectories. This paper introduces a novel ahead-of-time flexibility characterization method to address it. First, a polyhedral non-feeder-level power flexibility region (PFR) is constructed, accounting for various time-dependent, power-coupled, and forecast error uncertainties. Then, a polyhedral feeder-level PFR is analytically derived through a coordinate transformation, which can reveal the uncertainty propagation path, i.e., how uncertainty applies to the feeder-level PFR. To facilitate the high-level application, a tractable chance-constrained Chebyshev centering optimization model is further developed to find a ball-shaped inner approximation of the feeder-level PFR. Finally, the proposed method is validated on a modified IEEE 123-bus test system. Here, both theoretical and experimental results show that, with appropriate robustness parameter settings, the proposed method can make the approximated PFR less conservative with abundant robustness against forecast error uncertainty.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

CheKiPEUQ Intro 1: Bayesian Parameter Estimation Considering Uncertainty or Error from both Experiments and Theory**

A common goal is extraction of physico-chemical parameter values such as pre-exponentials and activation energies from experiment. Ever increasing knowledge from experiments and computations is enabling semi-quantitative prior predictions of such values. When prior knowledge of physically realistic ranges is available, a method named Bayesian parameter estimation (BPE) enables more physically realistic parameter estimation relative to unsophisticated fitting by seeking the most probable value when considering together the uncertainties from prior knowledge, experimental data, and approximations in the model. An impediment to widespread use of BPE is a lack of understanding, training, and user-friendly software. Along with this invited publication, a general software package for BPE is being released that is user-friendly and that does not require understanding of the math behind the methodology. Overall, two previously unpublished catalysis science examples are provided along with considerations and guidelines for successful application of BPE. Following this work, BPE can become more widespread to enable extraction of physically meaningful parameter values.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty Quantification and Error Propagation in the Enthalpy and Entropy of Surface Reactions Arising from a Single DFT Functional

Accounting for parametric uncertainty in models is essential for quantifying the models’ predictive ability. Recently, approaches have been introduced to estimate parametric uncertainty in kinetic models while accounting for correlations among energy parameters. However, correlations have been estimated indirectly and correlations in entropies have not been accounted for. For surface-catalyzed microkinetic models of >C2 (more than two carbon-containing) molecules, which consist of thousands of reaction steps and intermediate surface species, first-principles density functional theory (DFT) is costly, and thus, estimation of thermochemistry and reaction barriers requires surrogate methods of DFT, such as group additivity and Brønsted–Evans–Polanyi relationships, respectively. For such parametrization, model uncertainty is unclear. This work develops a framework to overcome these gaps using group additivity and a single DFT functional. We estimate correlations in parameters of kinetic models and quantify uncertainty for thermochemistry, reaction barriers, reaction paths, and ultimately reaction rates, accounting also for the contribution of entropic uncertainty. Furthermore, the approach is illustrated on propane combustion and ethane oxidative dehydrogenation reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Robust Design Under Uncertainty in Quantum Error Mitigation

Error mitigation techniques are crucial to achieving near-term quantum advantage. Classical postprocessing of quantum computation outcomes is a popular approach for error mitigation, which includes methods, such as zero noise extrapolation, virtual distillation, and learning-based error mitigation. However, these techniques have limitations due to the propagation of uncertainty resulting from the finite shot number of a quantum measurement. In this work, we introduce general and unbiased methods for quantifying the uncertainty and error of error-mitigated observables based on the strategic sampling of error mitigation outcomes. We then extend our approach to demonstrate the optimization of performance and robustness of error mitigation under uncertainty. To illustrate our methods, we apply them to zero noise extrapolation and Clifford date regression in the ground state of the XY model simulated using depolarizing and International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Toronto noise models, respectively. In particular, we optimize the choice of noise levels and the allocation of shots for zero noise extrapolation and the distribution of the training circuits for Clifford data regression. While our methods are readily applicable to any postprocessing-based error mitigation approach, in practice they must not be prohibitively expensive—even though they perform optimizations of the error mitigation hyperparameters requiring sampling of a statistical distribution of error mitigation outcomes. By leveraging surrogate-based optimization, we show that our methods can efficiently perform optimal design for a zero noise extrapolation implementation. We then further demonstrate the transferability of learned zero noise extrapolation hyperparameters to other similar circuits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Code for paper "Reconstructing an Implosion with Space-Time Smoothing of Velocimetry Traces"

New diagnostics to obtain high-temporal resolution observation of surface velocity provide a rich collection of data from high-explosive (HE) experiments. Using this data to estimate the temporal evolution of an imploding, HE-driven surface is of great interest for validating simulation of the physical system and for design of future experiments. This is the code for a paper in which we propose a method for using a Gaussian process to estimate the surface position over time and provide uncertainty estimates on that reconstruction accounting for measurement error, uncertainty to sparse spatial sampling velocity data, and robustness to outlying observations. In the paper, the code is applied on data from a hemispherical HE implosion experiment. This code is for release with the paper for peer-review, replicating the results and making the figures from the paper.

Grosskopf, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2021

Code and Solution Verification Assessment of the CTF Thermal Hydraulic Subchannel Code

CTF is a thermal-hydraulics subchannel code jointly developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and North Carolina State University. Over the past seven years, the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) has made a significant investment in developing CTF so it can be used to model light water reactors, including nominal operating conditions, departure from nucleate boiling analysis, and transients ranging from loss of flow to reactivity insertion accidents. In addition to implementing new modeling capabilities and developing the user input and output interface, extensive work has been performed to improve the code’s quality assurance program, resulting in a development process that conforms with NQA-1 requirements. The CASL program follows the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) approach for assessing code quality, which emphasizes performing code verification(ensuring the code converges to the correct answer) and solution verification (ensuring the code converges for the intended application). Code and solution verification are used to identify uncertainty errors introduced by numerical approximations in the code and are important for demonstrating that the model is coded without error, which is an important aspect of the Best Estimate plus Uncertainty method. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the code and solution verification testing that has been performed on CTF. A top-down approach is taken in which the intended CTF applications are presented, followed by the code features required for their modeling. These features are then linked to the applicable code and solution verification tests that demonstrate proper functioning. Past testing efforts are summarized, and new tests are added to help close gaps in the presented test matrix. Rather than performing “one-off” exercises, these tests are added to the automated CTF regression test suite to ensure continual code quality.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Active learning of a crystal plasticity flow rule from discrete dislocation dynamics simulations

Continuum-scale material deformation models, such as crystal plasticity (CP), can significantly enhance their predictive accuracy by incorporating input from lower-scale (i.e. mesoscale) models. The procedure to generate and extract the relevant information is however typically complex and ad hoc, involving decision and intervention by domain experts, leading to long development times. In this study, we develop a principled approach for calibration of continuum-scale models using lower scale information by representing a CP flow rule as a Gaussian process model. This representation allows for efficient parameter space exploration, guided by the uncertainty embedded in the model through a process known as Bayesian optimization (BO). We demonstrate a semi-autonomous BO loop which instantiates discrete dislocation dynamics simulations whose initial conditions are automatically chosen to optimize the uncertainty of a model CP flow rule. Our self-guided computational pipeline efficiently generated a dataset and corresponding model whose error, uncertainty, and physical feature sensitivities were validated with comparison to an independent dataset four times larger, demonstrating a valuable and efficient active learning implementation readily transferable to similar material systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reaction mechanisms of a cyclic ether intermediate: Ethyloxirane

Oxiranes are a class of cyclic ethers formed in abundance during low-temperature combustion of hydrocarbons and biofuels, either via chain-propagating steps that occur from unimolecular decomposition of β -hydroperoxyalkyl radicals ( β -˙QOOH) or from reactions of HOÓ with alkenes. Ethyloxirane is one of four alkyl-substituted cyclic ether isomers produced as an intermediate from n -butane oxidation. While rate coefficients for β -˙QOOH → ethyloxirane + ÓH are reported extensively, subsequent reaction mechanisms of the cyclic ether are not. As a result, chemical kinetics mechanisms commonly adopt simplified chemistry to describe ethyloxirane consumption by convoluting several elementary reactions into a single step, which may introduce mechanism truncation error—uncertainty derived from missing or incomplete chemistry. Here we provide fundamental insight on reaction mechanisms of ethyloxirane in support of ongoing efforts to minimize mechanism truncation error. Reaction mechanisms are inferred from the detection of products during chlorine atom-initiated oxidation experiments using multiplexed photoionization mass spectrometry conducted at 10 Torr and temperatures of 650 K and 800 K. To complement the experiments, calculations of stationary point energies were conducted using the ccCA-PS3 composite method on ˙R + O 2 potential energy surfaces for the four ethyloxiranyl radical isomers, which produced barrier heights for 24 reaction pathways. In addition to products from ˙QOOH → cyclic ether + ÓH and ˙R + O 2 → conjugate alkene + HOÓ, both of which were significant pathways and are prototypical to alkane oxidation, other species were identified from ring-opening of both ethyloxiranyl and ˙QOOH radicals. The latter occurs when the unpaired electron is localized on the ether group, causing the initial ˙QOOH structure to ring-open and form a resonance-stabilized ketohydroperoxide-type radical. The present work provides the first analysis of ethyloxirane oxidation chemistry, which reveals that consumption pathways are complex and may require an expansion of submechanisms to increase the fidelity of chemical kinetics mechanisms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Isomer-Dependent Reaction Mechanisms of Cyclic Ether Intermediates: cis -23-Dimethyloxirane and trans -23-Dimethyloxirane.

Oxiranes are a class of cyclic ethers formed in abundance during low-temperature combustion of hydrocarbons and biofuels, either via chain-propagating steps that occur from unimolecular decomposition of β-hydroperoxyalkyl radicals (β-˙QOOH) or from reactions of HÒO with alkenes. The cis- and trans-isomers of 2,3-dimethyloxirane are intermediates of n-butane oxidation, and while rate coefficients for β-˙QOOH → 2,3-dimethyloxirane + OH are reported extensively, subsequent reaction mechanisms of the cyclic ethers are not. As a result, chemical kinetics mechanisms commonly adopt simplified chemistry to describe the consumption of 2,3-dimethyloxirane by convoluting several elementary reactions into a single step, which may introduce mechanism truncation error—uncertainty derived from missing or incomplete chemistry. The present research examines the isomerdependence of 2,3-dimethyloxirane reaction mechanisms in support of ongoing efforts to minimize mechanism truncation error. Reaction mechanisms are inferred via the detection of products from Cl-initiated oxidation of both cis-2,3-dimethyloxirane and trans-2,3-dimethyloxirane using multiplexed photoionization mass spectrometry (MPIMS). The experiments were conducted at 10 Torr and temperatures of 650 K and 800 K. To complement the experiments, the enthalpies of stationary points on the ˙R + O 2 surfaces were computed at the ccCA-PS3 level of theory. In total, 28 barrier heights were computed on the 2,3-dimethyloxiranylperoxy surfaces. Two notable aspects are low-lying pathways that form resonance-stabilized ketohydroperoxide-type radicals caused by ˙QOOH ring-opening when the unpaired electron is localized adjacent to the ether group, and cis-trans isomerization of ˙R and ˙QOOH radicals, via inversion, which enable reaction pathways otherwise restricted by stereochemistry. Several species were identified in the MPIMS experiments from ring opening of 2,3-dimethyloxiranyl radicals. Neither of the two conjugate alkene isomers prototypical of ˙R + O 2 reactions were detected. Products were also identified from decomposition of ketohydroperoxide-type radicals. The present work provides the first analysis of 2,3-dimethyloxirane oxidation chemistry and reveals that consumption pathways are complex and require the expansion of submechanisms in chemical kinetics mechanisms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probing O 2 -dependence of cyclopentyl reactions via isomer-resolved speciation

Modeling chemical kinetics relevant to low-temperature combustion requires complete description of reactions involving critical species such as hydroperoxyalkyl radicals, Q̇OOH, which undergo competing unimolecular reactions and bimolecular reactions with O 2 . The balance of flux across the two pathways affects rates of chain-branching and depends on temperature, pressure, and oxygen concentration. Accordingly, the influence of [O 2 ] on product formation from alkyl + O 2 reactions and the subsequent fate of Q̇OOH and related products is central to the development of an accurate chemical kinetics mechanism. Furthermore, chemical reactions consuming Q̇OOH-mediated species are often simplified to such a degree that mechanism truncation error (uncertainty derived from incomplete reaction networks) becomes significant.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analyzing the Calibration History of Radiometers for Determining Optimal Calibration Day(s)

This study investigates the effects of calibrating radiometers using one day or multiple cloudless days as recommended by ASTM and ISO standards. The results demonstrate good responsivity agreement with estimated uncertainty error bars over the years for various radiometers under various Broadband Outdoor Radiometer Calibration (BORCAL) events at both the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the Southern Great Plains facility. The BORCAL method appears to justify the use of a single calibration day with enough data points to attain repeatable calibration results.

BORCAL↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neural correspondence to spectrum of environmental uncertainty in multiple-cue probability judgment system with time delay

Despite state-of-the-art technologies like artificial intelligence, human judgment is critically essential in cooperative systems, such as the multi-agent system (MAS), which collect information among agents based on multiple-cue judgment. Human agents can prevent impaired situational awareness of automated agents by confirming situations under environmental uncertainty. System error caused by uncertainty can result in an unreliable system environment, and this environment affects the human agent, resulting in non-optimal decision-making in MAS. Thus, it is necessary to know how human behavior is changed to capture system reliability under uncertainty. Another issue affecting MAS is time delay, which can delay agent information transfer, resulting in low performance and instability. However, it is difficult to find studies on the influence of time delay on human agents. This study is about understanding the human decision-making process under a specific system reliability environment by uncertainty with time delay. We used concepts of expected and unexpected uncertainty to implement reliability of the system usage environment with three types of time delay conditions: no time delay, regular time delay, and irregular time delay conditions. We used electroencephalogram (EEG) for human cognitive neural mechanisms in multiple-cue judgment systems to understand human decision-making. In the reliability of system usage environment, the unreliable system environment significantly creates less memory load by less utilization of system rules for decision-making. In terms of time delay, delayed information delivery does not significantly affect memory load for decision-making.

cognitive process↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic multiscale modeling for quantifying statistical and model errors with application to composite materials

This paper provides a coherent and efficient computational framework for stochastic multiscale analysis of material systems in the presence of parametric uncertainties and modeling errors. Uncertainty in those model parameters that are not deduced as upscaled quantities is attributed to an uncertainty “germ”. While such parameters can appear at any scale, they are predominant at the finest analysis scale. Additional uncertainties stemming from statistical estimation, attributed to lack of data and model error, are associated with each submodel contributing to the multiscale system. Here, a robust and efficient framework based on a generalized extended polynomial chaos expansion (gEPCE) is proposed to simultaneously propagate all these uncertainties in order to provide a probabilistic representation of specific quantities of interest (QoI). We characterize the full probability distribution of the QoI and the uncertainty in the failure probability pertaining to its tails. By combining gEPCE with kernel density estimation (KDE) and directional derivatives, we construct sensitivity measures that connect these statistical metrics of QoI to the various sources of uncertainty to assess their individual and combined impacts. An illustrative problem featuring three-point bending of a composite beam is investigated to demonstrate the presented approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗