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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Analytic error analysis of cross section interpolation methods in nodal diffusion codes - I : Theory

This paper discusses two cross section interpolation methods commonly found in popular nodal codes; the partial derivatives and multiple tables models. The motivation for choosing a model, and thus a case matrix structure, is a trade off between accuracy and computational cost. Due to decades of experience, there are default structures that are sufficient for current light water reactor analysis. However, this is not necessarily the case for advanced reactor designs. Therefore, it is advantageous to understand the sources of error in cross section interpolation models so that the quality of a case matrix may be improved. A mathematical framework for these models is presented in this work that provides a more rigorous connection between the nuclear engineering field's cross section interpolation methods and the broader mathematical field of function approximation. The two cross section models examined in this paper were found to utilize Lagrange interpolation and are a subset of Lagrange tensor products. Classical results of Lagrange polynomial error analysis were then applied to the partial derivative and multiple tables models to derive expressions for the total point-wise error. The analytical results classify the total error into two parts: the model form error and interpolation error. Finally, based on our observations, a better foundation for improving the quality of a case matrix is proposed. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

How Wrong Can the Operational AEP Uncertainty Estimate Be When We Ignore the Correlations Between the Uncertainty Components?

Calculations of wind farm annual energy production (AEP) on operational data are essential for a variety of financial transactions during the life of wind plants. The AEP estimate is associated with an uncertainty value, which is calculated by combining contributions connected to on-site measurements, long-term reference measurements, losses, regression, windiness adjustment, and wind resource interannual variability. Although very limited documentation on the topic exists, the conventional approach currently used by the wind energy community to assess the uncertainty connected to the operational AEP estimate assume that the different uncertainty components are uncorrelated and therefore calculates the overall uncertainty with a sum of squares approach. In this analysis, we contrast the traditional technique to estimate the overall AEP uncertainty by ignoring the correlation between its different components with a novel Monte Carlo based approach, which can instead take into account the correlation between different uncertainty categories. We consider monthly operational data from 472 wind farms from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 923 database to assess the difference between the two approaches. Long-term wind speed data needed for the AEP assessment are taken from three reanalysis products: the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications v2 (MERRA-2), the European Reanalysis Interim (ERA-interim), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction v2 (NCEP-2). The results of the Monte Carlo approach show that three pairs of AEP uncertainty components do show a statistically significant correlation: the uncertainty connected with wind resource inter-annual variability is positively correlated with the one related to the windiness correction and negatively correlated with the one due to the regression, and the wind measurement uncertainty is positively correlated with the regression uncertainty. All these correlations, which are found between uncertainty components which are not only part of an operational analysis, but also of a wind resource assessment, are currently ignored in the conventional techniques used as industry standard. We further investigate the causes of these correlations, in terms of common dependencies of different uncertainty components on wind resource variability, number of data points, and quality of the regression between wind speed and energy production data. Next, we quantify the error in the current industry standard technique, in terms of the percentage difference in total uncertainty calculated with the two considered approaches, for all the analyzed wind farms. We find a mean absolute percentage difference of about 6%, with the largest differences being greater than 20%. The data clearly confirm that ignoring the actual correlation between the uncertainty components can lead to large errors in the assessment of the operational AEP uncertainty, and the proposed Monte Carlo approach should be preferred.

Monte Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of the 176 Yb Interference Correction during Determination of the 176 Hf/ 177 Hf Ratio by Laser Ablation and Solution Analysis on the Neoma MC-ICP-MS

We utilized the Neoma™, a recently released MC-ICP-MS platform offered by ThermoFisher Scientific, to assess the behavior of the Lu-Yb-Hf system during laser ablation analyses of various zircon standards as well as solution-based analyses of the JMC-475 Hf standard doped with varying quantities of Yb and Lu. The primary goal of this work was to characterize the behavior of the Yb interference correction on the Neoma™ platform since this is one of the biggest issues in the Hf isotope analysis community and because the Neoma™ platform will supplant the Neptune™ series instrument. During laser ablation analysis, we found that the overall data quality scales proportionally with the total Hf signal intensity, with higher signal analyses producing extremely accurate (within 1 ε Hf unit) and precise (sub ε Hf unit within-run standard errors) data. At low Yb signals (<0.1 V 173 Yb), we were not able to produce an accurate internal Yb mass bias factor. However, utilizing an empirical approach allows for the application of session-specific relationships between the Yb and Hf mass bias factors, determined by analysis of standards of varying Yb content, to produce accurate ε Hf values from zircons with higher Yb/Hf ratios even where the total Hf signal intensity is relatively low. Similar behavior was observed in the solution analyses. Lastly, while the behavior of the Yb interference correction on the Neoma™ platform appears comparable to the Neptune™ series MC-ICP-MS, further work will help refine the understanding of the controls on mass bias behavior, oxide formation, session-to-session stability, etc.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

The first two chromosome‐scale genome assemblies of American hazelnut enable comparative genomic analysis of the genus Corylus

Summary The native, perennial shrub American hazelnut ( Corylus americana ) is cultivated in the Midwestern United States for its significant ecological benefits, as well as its high‐value nut crop. Implementation of modern breeding methods and quantitative genetic analyses of C. americana requires high‐quality reference genomes, a resource that is currently lacking. We therefore developed the first chromosome‐scale assemblies for this species using the accessions ‘Rush’ and ‘Winkler’. Genomes were assembled using HiFi PacBio reads and Arima Hi‐C data, and Oxford Nanopore reads and a high‐density genetic map were used to perform error correction. N50 scores are 31.9 Mb and 35.3 Mb, with 90.2% and 97.1% of the total genome assembled into the 11 pseudomolecules, for ‘Rush’ and ‘Winkler’, respectively. Gene prediction was performed using custom RNAseq libraries and protein homology data. ‘Rush’ has a BUSCO score of 99.0 for its assembly and 99.0 for its annotation, while ‘Winkler’ had corresponding scores of 96.9 and 96.5, indicating high‐quality assemblies. These two independent assemblies enable unbiased assessment of structural variation within C. americana , as well as patterns of syntenic relationships across the Corylus genus. Furthermore, we identified high‐density SNP marker sets from genotyping‐by‐sequencing data using 1343 C. americana , C. avellana and C. americana × C. avellana hybrids, in order to assess population structure in natural and breeding populations. Finally, the transcriptomes of these assemblies, as well as several other recently published Corylus genomes, were utilized to perform phylogenetic analysis of sporophytic self‐incompatibility (SSI) in hazelnut, providing evidence of unique molecular pathways governing self‐incompatibility in Corylus .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

THE EFFECT OF FUEL REACTIVITY AND EXHAUST GAS RECIRCULATION ON KNOCK PROPENSITY OF NATURAL GAS

The development of high efficiency, spark ignited natural gas engines is currently limited by engine knock at high compression ratio/elevated boost pressures and misfire at lean conditions/high exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) levels. The knock and misfire limits are further confounded by the wide variety in fuel reactivity observed in “pipeline quality” natural gas. In this study, a rapid compression machine was used to characterize the effects of EGR and variation in natural gas fuel reactivity on the homogeneous ignition delay, flame propagation rate, and end- gas autoignition propensity for stoichiometric natural gas/oxidizer/EGR blends. A reduced chemical kinetic mechanism was also developed to accurately model the homogeneous ignition delays measured in the Colorado State University rapid compression machine (CSU RCM). Pipeline quality natural gas with a range of chemical reactivity (68 < Methane Number < 95) was simulated using mixtures of CH4, C2H6, and C3H8. Exhaust gas recirculation gases were simulated with mixtures of Ar, CO2, CO, and NO at substitution rates of 0 to 30 mass percent. Ignition delay period under homogeneous autoignition conditions was measured at compressed pressures of 30.2 to 34.0 bar and compressed temperatures of 667 to 980 K. End-gas autoignition fraction and flame propagation rate were measured by initiating a laser spark in the center of the combustion chamber, after compression, at pressures of 30.7 to 32.7 bar and temperatures of 751 to 795 K. The results indicate that both fuel reactivity and the presence of reactive species (NO and CO) in the exhaust gas recirculation have a strong impact on end-gas autoignition fraction. A chemical kinetic mechanism was developed to predict homogeneous ignition delays for pipeline quality natural gas in a pressure and temperature range of 1-100 bar and 500-1000 K respectively. This mechanism accurately predicted measured homogeneous ignition delay in the RCM with a total average relative error of 11.0%.

Mohr, Jeffrey↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast and Accurate Predictions of Total Energy for Solid Solution Alloys with Graph Convolutional Neural Networks

We use graph convolutional neural networks (GCNNs) to produce fast and accurate predictions of the total energy of solid solution binary alloys. GCNNs allow us to abstract the lattice structure of a solid material as a graph, whereby atoms are modeled as nodes and metallic bonds as edges. This representation naturally incorporates information about the structure of the material, thereby eliminating the need for computationally expensive data pre-processing which would be required with standard neural network (NN) approaches. We train GCNNs on ab-initio density functional theory (DFT) for copper-gold (CuAu) and iron-platinum (FePt) data that has been generated by running the LSMS-3 code, which implements a locally self-consistent multiple scattering method, on OLCF supercomputers Titan and Summit. GCNN outperforms the ab-initio DFT simulation by orders of magnitude in terms of computational time to produce the estimate of the total energy for a given atomic configuration of the lattice structure. We compare the predictive performance of GCNN models against a standard NN such as dense feedforward multi-layer perceptron (MLP) by using the root-mean-squared errors to quantify the predictive quality of the deep learning (DL) models. We find that the attainable accuracy of GCNNs is at least an order of magnitude better than that of the MLP.

Lupo Pasini, Massimiliano↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Decision-Relevant Factor-Fixing Framework: Application to Uncertainty Analysis of a High-Dimensional Water Quality Model

Factor Fixing (FF) is a common method for reducing the number of model parameters to lower computational cost. FF typically starts with distinguishing the insensitive parameters from the sensitive and pursues uncertainty quantification (UQ) on the resulting reduced-order model, fixing each insensitive parameter at a fixed value. There is a need, however, to expand such a common approach to consider the effects of decision choices in the FF-UQ procedure on metrics of interest. Therefore, to guide the use of FF and increase confidence in the resulting dimension-reduced model, we propose a new adaptive framework consisting of four principles: (a) re-parameterize the model first to reduce obvious non-identifiable parameter combinations, (b) focus on decision relevance especially with respect to errors in quantities of interest (QoI), (c) conduct adaptive evaluation and robustness assessment of errors in the QoI across FF choices as sample size increases, and (d) reconsider whether fixing is warranted. The framework is demonstrated on a spatially-distributed water quality model. The error in estimates of QoI caused by FF can be estimated using a Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) surrogate model. Built with 70 model runs, the surrogate is computationally inexpensive to evaluate and can provide global sensitivity indices for free. For the selected catchment, just two factors may provide an acceptably accurate estimate of model uncertainty in the average annual load of Total Suspended Solids (TSS), suggesting that reducing the uncertainty in these two parameters is a priority for future work before undertaking further formal uncertainty quantification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Uncertainties in the Anthropogenic SO 2 Emissions in the USA from the OMI Point Source Catalog

Satellite remote sensing is a promising method of monitoring emissions that may be missing in inventories, but the accuracy of these estimates is often not clear. We demonstrate here a comprehensive evaluation of errors in anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emission estimates from NASA’s OMI point source catalog for the contiguous US by comparing emissions from the catalog with high-quality emission inventory data over different dimensions including size of individual sources, aggregate vs individual source errors, and potential bias in individual source estimates over time. For sources that are included in the catalog, we find that errors in aggregate (sum of error for all included sources) are relatively low. Errors for individual sources in any given year can be substantial, however, with over- or underestimates in terms of total error ranging from –80 to 110 kt (roughly 10–90th percentile). In this study, we find that these errors are not necessarily random over time and that there can be consistently positive or negative biases for individual sources. We did not find any overall statistical relationship between the degree of isolation of a source and bias, either at a 40 or 70 km scales. For a sub-set of sources where inventory emissions over a radius of 70 km around an OMI detection are larger than twice the emissions within 40 km, the OMI value is consistently overestimated. We find, as expected, that emission sources not included in the catalog are the largest aggregate source of difference between the satellite estimates and inventories, especially in more recent years where source emission magnitudes have been decreasing and note that trends in satellite detections do not necessarily track trends in total emissions. We find that the OMI-based SO 2 emissions are accurate in aggregate, when summed over a number of sources, but must be interpreted more cautiously at the individual source level. Similar analyses would be valuable for other satellite emission estimates; however, in many cases, the appropriate high-quality reference data may need to be generated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solute chemistry for streams draining geomorphic features and varying land cover gradients in the East River watershed, Colorado

This dataset contains solute chemistry data and GPS coordinates for surface water samples collected in the East River watershed in the Elk and West Elk Ranges of Colorado from August 3rd through August 11th, 2022. Samples were collected from streams and groundwater seeps as part of a comprehensive analysis within the watershed of how different geomorphic features (such as landslides and rock glaciers) along with variations in land cover (such as the presence of vegetation) affect stream water quality in this Rocky Mountain headwater environment. This dataset includes concentrations of the following in a single csv file: fluoride, chloride, sulfate, nitrate, calcium, potassium, magnesium, sodium, silicon, and total organic carbon (TOC). All concentrations are reported in mg/L. The sulfate data in this version have been updated to account for an earlier ion chromatograph instrument method error whereby sulfate and bromide peaks overlapped in calibration solution samples, biasing calculated sulfate concentrations low by 30-50%. Sulfate data reported herein are from a re-run of the samples performed in December 2024 using a corrected instrument method. All samples were stored under refrigerated conditions and filtered on initial collection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating User Errors and Temporal Trends in Marine Fish Communities Using 360-Degree Underwater Photography

The use of environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling has been proposed as a complementary method to monitor fish species in marine environments, offering a non-invasive and potentially more efficient approach to marine species observations. eDNA monitoring could be especially useful in and around sites targeted for marine energy generation as these regions need regular monitoring that would be impractical with traditional techniques. Before we can fully rely upon eDNA, we must first verify its accuracy against other proven methods, such as the use of underwater photography. In this study, I deployed a 360-degree camera in the tidal channel of Sequim Bay once a month during several hours overlapping slack tide. I investigated how having multiple people identify and count fish on underwater images could affect the overall results. Using chi square tests in R, I compared my fish identifications and counts to those made by another intern on the same images recorded in August. I found significant differences in the number of species identified and the total individual counts between the two different datasets. I also tested the statistical differences in both Shannon diversity and Pielou evenness indices between the August, September, and November camera deployments using a Hutcheson t-test. Only one significant difference was found in the Shannon index comparisons, and none were found between the Pielou evenness comparisons. These findings show that if multiple identifiers are used to process underwater images, quality control checks must be made to reduce the potential for error. This also points toward the possibility to leverage more advanced image analysis processes, such as automated image analysis software. The findings from this study also show that the dynamics of marine fish communities can vary over a few months; however, further analysis is needed to determine the extent of the seasonal changes in Sequim Bay.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The many-body expansion for aqueous systems revisited: 1. Water-water interactions

We revisit the Many-Body Expansion (MBE) for water-water interactions by examining the effects of the basis set, including those resulting from the Basis Set Superposition Error (BSSE) correction, on the various terms for selected sizes of water clusters up to n = 21. The analysis is performed at the second order Møller-Plesset (MP2) perturbation theory with the family of augmented correlation consistent basis sets up to five zeta quality for the (H2O)n, n = 7, 10, 13, 16 and 21 clusters, for which we report either the complete MBE (n = 7, 10) or the one through the 6-body (n = 13) and the 5-body terms (n = 16, 21). Our results suggest that any sizeable contributions to the total cluster binding energy arising from the 5-body and larger terms are solely an artifact of the size of the basis set. Indeed, all terms above the 4-body converge monotonically to practically zero at the Complete Basis Set (CBS) limit. The magnitudes of the 5-body and above terms are accurately reproduced even with the smaller basis set of the series (aug-cc-pVDZ) once the BSSE correction is taken into account. The same level of theory (MP2/aug-cc-pVDZ, BSSEcorrected) also accurately reproduces the MP2/CBS values of the 3- and 4-body terms. The contribution of electron correlation to the 3- and 4-body terms is quite small, so that neglecting the correlation contribution in all terms above the 3-body results in an error of ??(0.1%). The BSSE correction to the largest 2-body term in the MBE was accurately estimated from the function ?? [1 + erf(-?? ??)], which is proportional to the common (overlapping) area between two Gaussian distributions whose centers are separated by R, with the constants ??, ?? fitted to the calculated BSSE corrections for the individual 2-body terms of the clusters with each basis set. Our results unquestionably demonstrate that the MBE for water-water interactions converges to the 4-body term, since any finite terms above the 4-body are artifacts of the size of the basis set and can be safely truncated at the 4-body term when either a very large basis set is used or BSSE corrections are taken into account even with the aug-cc-pVDZ basis set. We expect these findings to have important consequences in the pursuit of accurate many-body molecular dynamics simulations for aqueous systems.

Heindel, Joseph↗
DOE OSTI2021

Permutationally Invariant Polynomial Expansions with Unrestricted Complexity

A general strategy is presented for constructing and validating permutationally invariant polynomial (PIP) expansions for chemical systems of any stoichiometry. Demonstrations are made for three categories of gas-phase dynamics and kinetics: collisional energy-transfer trajectories for predicting pressure-dependent kinetics, three-body collisions for describing transient van der Waals adducts relevant to atmospheric chemistry, and nonthermal reactivity via quasiclassical trajectories. In total, 30 systems are considered with up to 15 atoms and 39 degrees of freedom. Permutational invariance is enforced in PIP expansions with as many as 13 million terms and 13 permutationally distinct atom types by taking advantage of petascale computational resources. The quality of the PIP expansions is demonstrated through the systematic convergence of in-sample and out-of-sample errors with respect to both the number of training data and the order of the expansion, and these errors are shown to predict errors in the dynamics for both reactive and nonreactive applications. Here, the parallelized code distributed as part of this work enables the automation of PIP generation for complex systems with multiple channels and flexible user-defined symmetry constraints and for automatically removing unphysical unconnected terms from the basis set expansions, all of which are required for simulating complex reactive systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

The DESI DR1 Peculiar Velocity Survey: Fundamental Plane Catalogue

Measurements of peculiar velocities in the local Universe are a powerful tool to study the nature of dark energy at low ($z < 0.1$) redshifts. Here we present the largest single set of $z<0.1$ peculiar velocity measurements to date, obtained using the Fundamental Plane (FP) of galaxies in the first data release (DR1) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We describe the photometric and spectroscopic selection criteria used to define the sample, as well as extensive quality control checks on the photometry and velocity dispersion measurements. Additionally, we perform detailed systematics checks for the many analysis parameters in our pipeline. Our DESI DR1 catalogue contains FP-based distances and peculiar velocities for $98,292$ unique early-type galaxies, increasing the total number of $z < 0.1$ FP distances ever measured by a factor of $\sim2$. We achieve a precision of $26\%$ random error in our distance measurements which is comparable to previous surveys. A series of companion DESI papers use the distances and peculiar velocities presented in this paper to measure cosmological parameters.

Ross, C. E. [Queensland U.]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atomic Energy Accuracy of Neural Network Potentials: Harnessing Pretraining and Transfer Learning

Machine learning-based interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have transformed the prediction of potential energy surfaces (PESs), achieving accuracy comparable to ab initio calculations. However, atomic energy predictions, often assumed to lack physical meaning, remain underexplored. In this study, we demonstrate that inaccuracies in atomic energy predictions reduce the robustness and transferability of Neural Network Potentials (NNPs) and atomic energy error can be masked in total energy predictions due to error cancellation. Here, we validate this finding using challenging configurations involving deformation and failure under tensile loading. By pretraining atomic energy predictions using empirical potentials and applying transfer learning with density functional theory (DFT) data, we achieve notable improvements in the accuracy of total energy, forces, and stress predictions. Furthermore, this approach enhances the robustness and transferability of NNPs, emphasizing the importance of atomic energy predictions in developing high-quality and reliable MLIPs.

Active Learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probing Quantum Telecloning on Superconducting Quantum Processors

Quantum information cannot be perfectly cloned, but approximate copies of quantum information can be generated. Quantum telecloning combines approximate quantum cloning, more typically referred to as quantum cloning, and quantum teleportation. Quantum telecloning allows approximate copies of quantum information to be constructed by separate parties, using the classical results of a Bell measurement made on a prepared quantum telecloning state. Quantum telecloning can be implemented as a circuit on quantum computers using a classical coprocessor to compute classical feedforward instructions using if statements based on the results of a midcircuit Bell measurement in real time. We present universal symmetric optimal 1 → M telecloning circuits and experimentally demonstrate these quantum telecloning circuits for M = 2 up to M = 10, natively executed with real-time classical control systems on IBM Quantum superconducting processors, known as dynamic circuits. We perform the cloning procedure on many different message states across the Bloch sphere, on seven IBM Quantum processors, optionally using the error suppression technique X–X sequence digital dynamical decoupling. Two circuit optimizations are utilized: one that removes ancilla qubits for M = 2,3 , and one that reduces the total number of gates in the circuit but still uses ancilla qubits. Parallel single-qubit tomography with maximum likelihood estimation density matrix reconstruction is used in order to compute the mixed-state density matrices of the clone qubits, and clone quality is measured using quantum fidelity. These results present one of the largest and most comprehensive noisy intermediate-scale quantum computer experimental analyses on (single qubit) quantum telecloning to date. The clone fidelity sharply decreases to 0.5 for M > 5 , but for M = 2 , we are able to achieve a mean clone fidelity of up to 0.79 using dynamical decoupling.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-informed graph neural networks for predicting cetane number with systematic data quality analysis

Designing alternative fuels for advanced compression ignition engines necessitates a predictive model for cetane number (CN). In this study, the physics-informed graph neural networks are introduced for a reliable CN prediction by considering molecular features pertinent to the physical properties of molecules that affect CN. The reliability of measured data is another key factor to consider for improving the predictive model. Various experimental instruments for measuring CN exist, including standard and non-standard methods. In this regard, a systematic data quality analysis was carried out for the total 630 CNs collected from literature and new measurements in this study using Advanced Fuel Ignition Delay Analyzer (AFIDA). The results from this data curation process were reflected in the model by imposing lower sample weights on the data coming from less reliable measurement techniques. This approach effectively maximized the prediction accuracy while incorporating data from all available sources. Using the sample weights decreased the mean absolute error (MAE) up to 0.8 CN units. The accuracy was also improved by introducing the CN-related physical properties (the number of hydrogen bond donors and acceptors); the test set MAE is 5.74 and 7.01 for the model with and without such properties, respectively. Investigating molecular structural effects on CN was also carried out to gain chemical insights into factors used to design new fuel candidates. The dimensionality reduction analysis of feature vectors showed a clear clustering in terms of functional groups and CN and the structural effect derived from the model was consistent with the physicochemical insights. Finally, this physics-informed model and data curation would be helpful for accurate CN prediction and inform rational fuel design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hourly PM 2.5 Estimates across California from 2018 to 2023

This study presents a new data set of hourly PM 2.5 concentrations across California from 2018 to 2023 at a three-kilometer resolution. This data set was developed by assimilating observations from PurpleAir and the U.S. EPA Air Quality System monitors into wildfire smoke forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Smoke (HRRR-Smoke) model using the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Archived forecasts of modeled wildfire smoke PM 2.5 from HRRR-Smoke create the background field for assimilation, which is then corrected using surface observations of total PM 2.5 . The resulting reanalysis from GSI provides an estimate of total PM 2.5 that minimizes error from both the observational and the model data. Validation results indicate strong performance, with monthly R 2 values ranging from 0.73 to 0.91 across the six-year data set, comparable to other PM 2.5 data sets. Case studies are presented for three major fire events, the 2018 Camp Fire, 2019 Kincade Fire, and 2020 Lightning Complex Fires to demonstrate the data set’s fidelity in resolving plume dynamics and local exposure patterns. Root-mean-squared error averaged over each month scales with average PM 2.5 concentrations, resulting in a low error under typical conditions but higher absolute errors during extreme smoke events. This is the first long-term, hourly PM 2.5 data set of its kind for California and enables the generation of subdaily exposure metrics, such as peak hourly concentrations, exceedance durations, and time-of-day exposure peaks. The novelty and strong validation of this data set make it a compelling resource for future studies on the impact and significance of subdaily PM 2.5 exposure.

PM2.5↗
DOE OSTI2021

Verification Testing For Solid-Element Material Models 11-19 in DYNA3D/ParaDyn

This technical report documents the creation and implementation of verification tests for solid-element material models 11 through 19 available in DYNA3D/ParaDyn. The verification tests covered all aspects of each material model, except for the Weibull distribution functionality in material models 15 and 19. General test cases were created to verify the elastic and plastic behavior of the material models. Other additional tests were developed to examine the intricacies of each material model. Each test involved the use a kinematic load case and specification of material parameters necessary to activate corresponding features of the material model. The load cases prescribed the full time history of the kinematic motion for the solid elements, and these loads are independent of the material model or element formulation. When possible, closed form solutions were then derived for each verification test in a continuum setting. The DYNA3D simulations for each test were carried out over a unit time interval, t ϵ [0, 1], and the as implemented DYNA3D response was compared to the closed form solutions evaluated at discrete points in time. A relative error measure was determined for each test to justify the proper implementation of the material model. The relative errors comparing the DYNA3D solution to the analytical solution were, in general, on the order of machine precision except where noted. This signifies the proper implementation of solid-element material models 11-19. In the development of these verification tests, six bugs were found and fixed in the source code. Additionally, this work generated eighteen DYNA3D input decks and answer extraction scripts in the DYNA3D/ParaDyn Software Quality Assurance test suite, which are comprised of a total of 285 solid-element tests. Testing for each material model utilizes two input decks and answer extraction scripts, where one focuses on the linear elastic response and the other examines the inelastic and remaining functionalities of the material model. In total, this work added 285 individual verification test problems in the DYNA3D/ParaDyn test suite.

42 ENGINEERING↗