Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “estimation and forecasting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supporting Global Air Quality Management Needs With A Flexible Data Fusion Tool for Estimation and Forecasting in Google Earth Engine

High spatial and temporal resolution air quality estimation and forecasting can be enhanced by combining global data sources, like chemical transport models and satellite remote sensing, with local information from regulatory and low-cost air quality monitors. Successful integration of data from these diverse sources is complicated by many factors, however, including differences in spatial and temporal resolution, data availability and latency issues, varying data quality, and large computational and data storage requirements. This presentation will provide an overview of a NASA-funded effort to develop the foundation for future operationalization of air quality forecasting for world-wide end-users and integration into their air quality management decision processes, which will be achieved in future phases of this multi-year project. We will summarize our progress in developing a data fusion system using the Google Earth Engine platform which can integrate model, satellite, and surface-level monitoring datasets to enhance estimation and forecasting of air-quality-relevant pollutants at sub-daily and sub-city scales. The tool is being developed in close cooperation with several city- and regional-level air quality managers in the USA and around the world. Our end-goal is to provide these air quality managers with the information they need to assess and anticipate the impacts of poor air quality, track changes in air quality due to ongoing mitigation efforts and land use changes, and identify ways to improve their air quality monitoring strategies. This presentation will focus on recent advances achieved through the project, including integration of multiple air quality datasets in a prototype data fusion system in Google Earth Engine, the quantification of uncertainties associated with our data fusion approach, and the development of user interfaces and visualization tools to convey air quality information in a way which best meets end-user needs.

Carl Malings↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supporting Global Air Quality Management Needs With A Flexible Data Fusion Tool for Estimation and Forecasting in Google Earth Engine

High spatial and temporal resolution air quality estimation and forecasting can be enhanced by combining global data sources, like chemical transport models and satellite remote sensing, with local information from regulatory and low-cost air quality monitors. Successful integration of data from these diverse sources is complicated by many factors, however, including differences in spatial and temporal resolution, data availability and latency issues, varying data quality, and large computational and data storage requirements. This presentation will provide an overview of a NASA-funded effort to develop the foundation for future operationalization of air quality forecasting for world-wide end-users and integration into their air quality management decision processes, which will be achieved in future phases of this multi-year project. We will summarize our progress in developing a data fusion system using the Google Earth Engine platform which can integrate model, satellite, and surface-level monitoring datasets to enhance estimation and forecasting of air-quality-relevant pollutants at sub-daily and sub-city scales. The tool is being developed in close cooperation with several city- and regional-level air quality managers in the USA and around the world. Our end-goal is to provide these air quality managers with the information they need to assess and anticipate the impacts of poor air quality, track changes in air quality due to ongoing mitigation efforts and land use changes, and identify ways to improve their air quality monitoring strategies. This presentation will focus on recent advances achieved through the project, including integration of multiple air quality datasets in a prototype data fusion system in Google Earth Engine, the quantification of uncertainties associated with our data fusion approach, and the development of user interfaces and visualization tools to convey air quality information in a way which best meets end-user needs.

Carl Malings↗
NASA NTRS1970

Handbook for Weight Estimating and Forecasting of Manned Space Systems During Conceptual Design. Volume II

Volume I of the Handbook for Weight Estimating and Forecasting of Manned Space Systems during Conceptual Design contains two manual methods of preliminary weight estimation, plus weight growth data and two methods for forecasting weight growth. The two weight estimation methods in Volume I are recommended for rapid use only during the earliest phases of design when mission knowledge and design parameters are at a minimum. Volume II contains a detailed point design method of preliminary weight estimation, to be used by either manual or computer means. This method enables greater in-depth weight assessments of designs when the necessary mission knowledge and design parameters are available. Volume II also contains the description of an associated or independent (user's option) space transportation system sizing program which has the capability of altering a point design configuration, as necessary, to assure vehicle weight, size and performance compatibility.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1985

Systematic estimation of forecast and observation error covariances in four-dimensional data assimilation

A two-part algorithm is presented for reliably computing weather forecast model and observational error covariances during data assimilation. Data errors arise from instrumental inaccuracies and sub-grid scale variability, whereas forecast errors occur because of modeling errors and the propagation of previous analysis errors. A Kalman filter is defined as the primary algorithm for estimating the forecast and analysis error convariance matrices. A second algorithm is described for quantifying the noise covariance matrices of any degree to obtain accurate values for the observational error covariances. Numerical results are provided from a linearized one-dimensional shallow-water model. The results cover observational noise covariances, initial instrumental errors and erroneous model values.

Dee, D. P.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Flexible Data Fusion for Air Quality Estimation and Forecasting in Google Earth Engine to support Global Health Management Needs

The assessment and forecasting of air quality around the world at high spatial and temporal resolution can be enhanced by integrating data from multiple sources including models, satellites, regulatory monitors, and low-cost sensors. Such integration is subject to numerous technical challenges, however, including heterogeneous data resolution and formatting, different levels of data availability and reliability, and computational and capacity challenges to developing data fusion tools and platforms. This presentation will provide an overview of a NASA-funded effort to develop a data fusion system within the Google Earth Engine platform which integrates these air quality data sources to produce comprehensive assessments and forecasts of key air pollutants at sub-daily and sub-city scales. The system is being developed in collaboration with city- and regional-level air quality managers, and will provide them with information to the assess and anticipate the health impacts of poor air quality, track local changes in air quality due to ongoing transportation and land use changes, and identify potential gaps in their current air quality monitoring strategies. The presentation will report advances achieved through the project, including bringing local air quality monitoring data into Google Earth Engine, quantifying uncertainties in air quality estimates and forecasts, and tailored communications tools providing integration into end-user processes to meet their needs.

Carl Malings↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flexible Data Fusion for Air Quality Estimation and Forecasting in Google Earth Engine to support Global Health Management Needs

The assessment and forecasting of air quality around the world at high spatial and temporal resolution can be enhanced by integrating data from multiple sources including models, satellites, regulatory monitors, and low-cost sensors. Such integration is subject to numerous technical challenges, however, including heterogeneous data resolution and formatting, different levels of data availability and reliability, and computational and capacity challenges to developing data fusion tools and platforms. This presentation will provide an overview of a NASA-funded effort to develop a data fusion system within the Google Earth Engine platform which integrates these air quality data sources to produce comprehensive assessments and forecasts of key air pollutants at sub-daily and sub-city scales. The system is being developed in collaboration with city- and regional-level air quality managers and will provide them with information to the assess and anticipate the health impacts of poor air quality, track local changes in air quality due to ongoing transportation and land use changes, and identify potential gaps in their current air quality monitoring strategies. The presentation will report advances achieved through the project, including bringing local air quality monitoring data into Google Earth Engine, quantifying uncertainties in air quality estimates and forecasts, and tailored communications tools providing integration into end-user processes to meet their needs.

Nathan R. Pavlovic↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards A Flexible Data Fusion Tool Incorporating Model, Satellite, Regulatory Monitor and Low-Cost Sensor Data for Air Quality Estimation and Forecasting

Air quality managers, researchers, and concerned community scientists around the world have a variety of sources for air quality information, ranging from traditional regulatory monitoring networks and atmospheric chemistry models to remote sensing data products and low-cost sensor networks. However, the ability to incorporate data from these disparate sources and synthesize a comprehensive overview of the local air quality situation remains a considerable barrier for many end-users. This presentation will outline a tool, currently in development, which will address this need using a flexible data fusion approach. The tool will make use of air quality forecast model outputs (primarily from the NASA GEOS-CF composition forecast modeling system), satellite remote sensing data (from instruments including MODIS, VIIRS, TROPOMI, plus TEMPO for the US when available), and in-situ data from official regulatory and/or low-cost networks where these are available. The ability to incorporate data from low-cost sensor networks will be a key feature of the tool; it will make use of other available data sources to calibrate the low-cost sensor data on a regional scale, then use these calibrated low-cost sensor data for localized updating to resolve finer-scale air quality patterns. Development of this tool is taking place with the help of national and international partners and end-user groups, coordinated through the US EPA and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The tool is being developed on the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform to facilitate integration of diverse data sources and free access by a broad community of end-users. Stewardship of the tool will be passed to US EPA and UNEP to support future activities with end-users in the US and around the world, and the tool itself will remain freely accessible. We hope that this tool will lower the barrier to entry for various user groups worldwide, including community scientists, who struggle to integrate disparate data sources to gain insight into their local air quality situations. This presentation will cover the early stages of the development of the tool, including the underlying methods and some pilot case studies in integrating low-cost sensor data.

global models↗
NASA NTRS2020

Evaluation of adjoint-based observation impacts as a function of forecast length using an Observing System Simulation Experiment

Adjoints of numerical weather prediction models may be employed for Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (FSO) in order to monitor the contribution of ingested observation data on short-term forecast skill. However, the calculation of short-term forecast error is difficult due to the lack of a truly independent dataset for verification. In an Observing System Simulation Experiment framework, the Nature Run is able to provide a true and complete verification dataset and allows accurate evaluation of short term forecast errors. In this work, an OSSE developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office is used to explore the impact of observational data on forecasts in the 6 to 48 hour range. An adjoint of the Global Earth Observing System model is employed to compare the observation impacts estimated using both self-analysis verification and the true Nature Run verification. Self-analysis verification is found to inflate the estimated forecast error growth during the early forecast period, resulting in overestimations of observation impacts, particularly in the 6-12 hour forecast range. By 48 hours, the self-analysis verification estimates of forecast error and observation impacts more closely match the true values. The fraction of beneficial observations is also overinflated at short forecast times when self-analysis verification is used. The progression of impacts of an individual observation or data type depends on the character of the growth of the initial condition error that each observation affects.

numerical weather prediction↗
NASA NTRS1999

Moisture Forecast Bias Correction in GEOS DAS

Data assimilation methods rely on numerous assumptions about the errors involved in measuring and forecasting atmospheric fields. One of the more disturbing of these is that short-term model forecasts are assumed to be unbiased. In case of atmospheric moisture, for example, observational evidence shows that the systematic component of errors in forecasts and analyses is often of the same order of magnitude as the random component. we have implemented a sequential algorithm for estimating forecast moisture bias from rawinsonde data in the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The algorithm is designed to remove the systematic component of analysis errors and can be easily incorporated in an existing statistical data assimilation system. We will present results of initial experiments that show a significant reduction of bias in the GEOS DAS moisture analyses.

Dee, D.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)

Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and forecasters from the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violating the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) (Krider et al. 2006; Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR), NASA/JSC 2004)). As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool that creates an anvil threat corridor graphic that can be overlaid on satellite imagery using the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS, Short and Wheeler, 2002). The tool helps forecasters estimate the locations of thunderstorm anvils at one, two, and three hours into the future. It has been used extensively in launch and landing operations by both the 45 WS and SMG. The Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) is now used along with MIDDS for weather analysis and display at SMG. In Phase I of this task, SMG tasked the AMU to transition the tool from MIDDS to AWIPS (Barrett et aI., 2007). For Phase II, SMG requested the AMU make the Anvil Forecast Tool in AWIPS more configurable by creating the capability to read model gridded data from user-defined model files instead of hard-coded files. An NWS local AWIPS application called AGRID was used to accomplish this. In addition, SMG needed to be able to define the pressure levels for the model data, instead of hard-coding the bottom level as 300 mb and the top level as 150 mb. This paper describes the initial development of the Anvil Forecast Tool for MIDDS, followed by the migration of the tool to AWIPS in Phase I. It then gives a detailed presentation of the Phase II improvements to the AWIPS tool.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗
NASA NTRS1976

Cost/benefit tradeoffs for reducing the energy consumption of the commercial air transportation system

The fuel saving potential and cost effectiveness of numerous operational and technical options proposed for reducing the fuel consumption of the U.S. commercial airline fleet was examined and compared. The impact of the most promising fuel conserving options on fuel consumption, passenger demand, operating costs and airline profits when implemented in the U.S. domestic and international airline fleets was determined. A forecast estimate was made of the potential fuel savings achievable in the U.S. scheduled air transportation system. Specifically, the means for reducing the jet fuel consumption of the U.S. scheduled airlines in domestic and international passenger operations were investigated. A design analysis was made of two turboprop aircraft as possible fuel conserving derivatives of the DC-9-30.

Kraus, E. F.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Integration of Satellite-Derived Cloud Phase, Cloud Top Height, and Liquid Water Path into an Operational Aircraft Icing Nowcasting System

Operational products used by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration to alert pilots of hazardous icing provide nowcast and short-term forecast estimates of the potential for the presence of supercooled liquid water and supercooled large droplets. The Current Icing Product (CIP) system employs basic satellite-derived information, including a cloud mask and cloud top temperature estimates, together with multiple other data sources to produce a gridded, three-dimensional, hourly depiction of icing probability and severity. Advanced satellite-derived cloud products developed at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) provide a more detailed description of cloud properties (primarily at cloud top) compared to the basic satellite-derived information used currently in CIP. Cloud hydrometeor phase, liquid water path, cloud effective temperature, and cloud top height as estimated by the LaRC algorithms are into the CIP fuzzy logic scheme and a confidence value is determined. Examples of CIP products before and after the integration of the LaRC satellite-derived products will be presented at the conference.

Haggerty, Julie↗
NASA NTRS2024

Impacts of an Early Morning Low Earth Orbit Observing Platform in A Future Global Observing Network Scenario

Significant changes to the global observing network are expected in the coming decades including the launch of a global ring of geostationary satellites and a reduction in the number of low earth orbit (LEO) platforms. It is anticipated that there may be a gap in the LEO coverage between the planned mid-morning and early afternoon orbits. Here, the utility of an early morning LEO orbit for numerical weather prediction is considered using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE). A global observing network with two LEO platforms including microwave and hyperspectral infrared instruments and three geostationary hyperspectral infrared platforms is considered for a future baseline scenario. Two instruments, a microwave radiometer modeled on the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) and a hyperspectral infrared radiometer modeled on the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), are tested both individually and in conjunction on a new early morning orbit in addition to the future baseline scenario. The microwave instrument is found to have beneficial impacts for up to 4–7 days in the medium range forecast period with beneficial impacts for the infrared instrument for up to 3–5 days. Short-range forecast impacts estimated with Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impacts (FSOI) over the conterminous United States for the early morning orbit are somewhat weaker than for the same instruments in the early afternoon orbit due to the orbital passage being coincident with rawinsondes while the afternoon orbit is coincident with the minima of both rawinsondes and aircraft.

Nikki C Prive↗
NASA NTRS1982

Evaluation of Thompson-type trend and monthly weather data models for corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana

An evaluation was made of Thompson-Type models which use trend terms (as a surrogate for technology), meteorological variables based on monthly average temperature, and total precipitation to forecast and estimate corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. Pooled and unpooled Thompson-type models were compared. Neither was found to be consistently superior to the other. Yield reliability indicators show that the models are of limited use for large area yield estimation. The models are objective and consistent with scientific knowledge. Timely yield forecasts and estimates can be made during the growing season by using normals or long range weather forecasts. The models are not costly to operate and are easy to use and understand. The model standard errors of prediction do not provide a useful current measure of modeled yield reliability.

French, V.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Economic Benefits of Improved Information on Worldwide Crop Production: An Optimal Decision Model of Production and Distribution with Application to Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans

An optimal decision model of crop production, trade, and storage was developed for use in estimating the economic consequences of improved forecasts and estimates of worldwide crop production. The model extends earlier distribution benefits models to include production effects as well. Application to improved information systems meeting the goals set in the large area crop inventory experiment (LACIE) indicates annual benefits to the United States of $200 to $250 million for wheat, $50 to $100 million for corn, and $6 to $11 million for soybeans, using conservative assumptions on expected LANDSAT system performance.

Andrews, J.↗