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At least 19 records

On the Importance of Investigating CME Complexity Evolution During Interplanetary Propagation

This perspective paper brings to light the need for comprehensive studies on the evolution of interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) complexity during propagation. To date, few studies of ICME complexity exist. Here, we define ICME complexity and associated changes in complexity, describe recent works and their limitations, and outline key science questions that need to be tackled. Fundamental research on ICME complexity changes from the solar corona to 1 AU and beyond is critical to our physical understanding of the evolution and interaction of transients in the inner heliosphere. Furthermore, a comprehensive understanding of such changes is required to understand the space weather impact of ICMEs at different heliospheric locations and to improve on predictive space weather models.

CME↗

Analysis of Complexity Evolution Management and Human Performance Issues in Commercial Aircraft Automation Systems

Autoflight systems in the current generation of aircraft have been implicated in several recent incidents and accidents. A contributory aspect to these incidents may be the manner in which aircraft transition between differing behaviours or 'modes.' The current state of aircraft automation was investigated and the incremental development of the autoflight system was tracked through a set of aircraft to gain insight into how these systems developed. This process appears to have resulted in a system without a consistent global representation. In order to evaluate and examine autoflight systems, a 'Hybrid Automation Representation' (HAR) was developed. This representation was used to examine several specific problems known to exist in aircraft systems. Cyclomatic complexity is an analysis tool from computer science which counts the number of linearly independent paths through a program graph. This approach was extended to examine autoflight mode transitions modelled with the HAR. A survey was conducted of pilots to identify those autoflight mode transitions which airline pilots find difficult. The transitions identified in this survey were analyzed using cyclomatic complexity to gain insight into the apparent complexity of the autoflight system from the perspective of the pilot. Mode transitions which had been identified as complex by pilots were found to have a high cyclomatic complexity. Further examination was made into a set of specific problems identified in aircraft: the lack of a consistent representation of automation, concern regarding appropriate feedback from the automation, and the implications of physical limitations on the autoflight systems. Mode transitions involved in changing to and leveling at a new altitude were identified across multiple aircraft by numerous pilots. Where possible, evaluation and verification of the behaviour of these autoflight mode transitions was investigated via aircraft-specific high fidelity simulators. Three solution approaches to concerns regarding autoflight systems, and mode transitions in particular, are presented in this thesis. The first is to use training to modify pilot behaviours, or procedures to work around known problems. The second approach is to mitigate problems by enhancing feedback. The third approach is to modify the process by which automation is designed. The Operator Directed Process forces the consideration and creation of an automation model early in the design process for use as the basis of the software specification and training.

Vakil, Sanjay S.↗

A long-lived mesoscale convective complex. II - Evolution and structure of the mature complex

The present investigation is concerned with an eight-day episode, during which a series of mesoscale convective complexes (MCC) developed and moved across the country, producing heavy rain and some flooding over an extensive region. An overview of the considered period from August 3 to August 10, 1977 is presented, and the evolution of the August 4 storm is examined. The structure of the mature MCC is discussed, taking into account the August 4-5 storm, a comparative case involving the August 3-4 storm, and an evaluation of the observed phenomena. It is concluded that MCCs are basically tropical in nature and that their dynamics are dominated by buoyant accelerations. It was found that the MCCs developed a warm-core, divergent anticyclonic flow pattern in the upper troposphere which was not present prior to the development of convection. A similar structure is observed in tropical cloud clusters.

Wetzel, P. J.↗

The evolution of complex and higher organisms

The evolution of Phanerozoic life has probably been influenced by extraterrestrial events and properties of the Earth-Moon system that have not, until now, been widely recognized. Tide range, gravitational strength, the Earth's axial tilt, and other planetary properties provide background conditions whose effects on evolution may be difficult to distinguish. Solar flares, asteroid impacts, supernovae, and passage of the solar system through galactic clouds can provide catastrophic changes on the Earth with consequent characteristic extinctions. Study of the fossil record and the evolution of complex Phanerozoic life can reveal evidence of past disturbances in space near the Earth. Conversely, better understanding of environmental influences caused by extraterrestrial factors and properties of the solar system can clarify aspects of evolution, and may aid in visualizing life on other planets with different properties.

Milne, D.↗

The Evolution of Complex Life

In considering the probabilities that intelligent life might exist elsewhere in the Universe, it is important to ask questions about the factors governing the emergence of complex living organisms in the context of evolutionary biology, planetary environments and events in space. Two important problems arise. First, what can be learned about the general laws governing the evolution of complex life anywhere in space by studying its history on the Earth? Second, how is the evolution of complex life affected by events in space? To address these problems, a series of Science Workshops on the Evolution of Complex Life was held at the Ames Research Center. Included in this paper are highlights of those workshops, with particular emphasis on the first question, namely the evolution of complex extraterrestrial life.

Billingham, John↗

The micrometeoroid complex and evolution of the lunar regolith

The interaction of the micrometeoroid complex with the lunar surface is evidenced by numerous glass-lined microcraters on virtually every lunar surface exposed to space. Such craters range in size from less than .1 micron to approximately 2 sq cm diameter. Using small scale laboratory cratering experiments for calibration, the observed crater-sized frequency distributions may be converted into micrometeoroid mass distributions. These lunar mass distributions are in essential agreement with satellite data. Some physical properties of micrometeoroids may be deduced by comparing lunar crater geometries with those obtained in laboratory experiments. The proponderance of circular outlines of lunar microcraters necessitates equidimensional, if not spherical, micrometeoroids.

Hoerz, F.↗

Mars - A planet with a complex surface evolution

The surface of Mars has evolved to its present form through a complex sequence of tectonism and associated volcanism, impact processes, water erosion, mass movements, and wind action. The diversity of geological processes active in past Martian history far exceeded most predictions. By the same token, predictions of processes modifying the satellites of the outer planets may fall far short of the true range of phenomena. A summary of present though with regard to Martian surface evolution is presented to serve as a case in point of the value of imagery and topography data in making interpretations of geological histories.

Arvidson, R. E.↗

Atmospheric Escape and Planetary Atmosphere Evolution. the Complex Role of Magnetization

Exoplanetary research is currently steered by investigations into the characteristics and evolution of their atmospheres. The fundamental inquiries encompass whether a given exoplanet possesses an atmosphere and, if so, how its attributes have evolved over time. The atmospheric composition reflects a delicate equilibrium between the inbound and outbound flows of volatiles, whether between space, surface, or between liquid and solid phases. Understanding atmospheric escape is, therefore, a critical facet of such studies. Especially, exoplanets that are relatively light and situated near their host stars are prone to substantial atmospheric loss, potentially resulting in barren celestial bodies. Thus, it becomes vital to comprehend the atmospheric responses to the host stars' activities, alongside other factors influencing atmospheric evolution. In that context, there persists a common narrative in the scientific community that frames a planetary magnetic field as a 'shield' against atmospheric escape. However, this study challenges the oversimplification of this premise, taking a closer look at the nuanced role magnetization plays in planetary atmospheric defense mechanisms. We will review the escape processes in the light of the different mechanisms and of the recent observations to highlight which processes have to carefully be taken into account.

Guillaume Gronoff↗

The evolution of complex life

The emergence of complex living organisms in the context of evolutionary biology, planetary environments, and space events is investigated. The application of data on biological evolution, climatology, and the chemical and physical environments of the earth's surface, to explain the development of extraterrestrial life is described and an example is provided. The possibility of extraplanetary disturbances such as, meteorite and comet bombardments, and supernova explosions, causing the elimination of preexisting life and allowing advanced life development is analyzed. The possible existence of different life cycles (genetic and reproductive strategies) on other planets is studied. The GAIA hypothesis (Lovelock, 1979) which states living things modify the global environment to their own advantage is examined. The improved identification of habitable planetary environments and the possible existence of a form of extraterrestrial intelligent life is discussed.

Billingham, J.↗

Interstellar/Precometary Organic Material and the Photochemical Evolution of Complex Organics

During the past two decades ground-, air-, and space-based infrared spectroscopic observations, combined with realistic laboratory simulations, have revolutionized our understanding of interstellar ice and dust, the raw materials from which planets, comets and stars form. Most interstellar material is concentrated in Large molecular clouds where simple molecules are formed by dust grain and gas phase reactions. Gaseous species striking the cold (10 K) dust will stick, forming an icy grain mantle. This accretion, coupled with energetic particle bombardment and UV photolysis, will produce a complex chemical mixture containing volatile, non-volatile, and isotopically fractionated species. Ices in molecular clouds contain the very simple molecules H2O, CH3OH, CO, CO2, H2, and perhaps some NH3 and H2CO, as well as more complex species including nitriles and ketones or esters. The evidence for these compounds as well as carbon rich materials such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), microdiamonds, and amorphous carbon will be reviewed and the possible connections with comets and meteorites will be presented in the first part of the talk. The second part of the presentation will focus on interstellar/precometary ice photochemical evolution. The chemical composition and photochemical evolution of realistic interstellar/pre-cometary ice analogs containing methanol will be discussed. ultraviolet photolysis of these ices produces H2, H2CO, CO2, CO, CH4, HCO, and more complex molecules. Infrared spectroscopy, H-1 and C-13 nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry demonstrate that when ices representative of interstellar grains and comets are exposed to UV radiation at low temperature a series of moderately complex organic molecules are formed in the ice including: CH3CH2OH (ethanol), HC(=O)NH2 (formamide), CH3C(=O)NH2 (acetamide), and R-C(integral)N (nitriles). Several of these are already known to be in the interstellar medium, and their presence indicates the importance of grain processing. After warming to room temperature what remains is an organic residue composed primarily of Hexamethylenetetramine (HMT, C6H12N4), with lesser amounts of polyoxymethylene related species (POMs), amides, and ketones. This is in sharp contrast to the organic residues produced by irradiating ices which do not contain methanol (unrealistic interstellar ice analogs) or thermally promoted polymerization-type reactions in unirradiated realistic ice mixtures. Here HMT is only a minor product in a residue dominated by a mixture of polyoxymethylene related species. The implications, for infrared astronomy and astrochemistry, of high concentrations of HMT in interstellar and cometary ices may be profound. The ultraviolet photolysis of HMT frozen in H20 ice produces the "XCN" band observed in the spectra of protostellar objects and laboratory ices, as well as carbon oxides and other nitriles. Thus, HMT may be a precursor of XCN in protostellar objects and a source of CN and CO in the tail of comets. Also, HMT is known to hydrolyze under acidic conditions to yield ammonia and formaldehyde as well as amino acids. Thus, HMT may have been a source of organic material delivered to the early earth by comets.

Allamandola, Lou J.↗

The micrometeoroid complex and evolution of the lunar regolith

Monte Carlo-based computer calculations, as well as analytical approaches utilizing probabilistic arguments, were applied to gain insight into the principal regolith impact processes and their resulting kinetics. Craters 10 to 1500 m in diameter are largely responsible for the overall growth of the regolith. As a consequence the regolith has to be envisioned as a complex sequence of discrete ejecta blankets. Such blankets constitute first-order discontinuities in the evolving debris layer. The micrometeoroid complex then operates intensely on these fresh ejecta blankets and accomplishes only in an uppermost layer of approximately 1-mm thickness. The absolute flux of micrometeoroids based on lunar rock analyses averaged over the past few 10 to the 6th power years is approximately an order of magnitude lower than presentday satellite fluxes; however, there is indication that the flux increased in the past 10 to the 4th power years to become compatible with the satellite data. Furthermore, there is detailed evidence that the micrometeoroid complex existed throughout geologic time.

Horz, F.↗

The evolution of complex type B Allende inclusion - An ion microprobe trace element study

Results are presented of a detailed trace-element and isotopic analyses of the constituent phases in each of the major textural parts (mantle, core, and islands) of a Type B refractory inclusion, the USNM 5241 inclusion from Allende, first described by El Goresy et al. (1985). The REE data on 5241 were found to be largely consistent with a model in which the mantle and the core of 5241 formed sequentially out of a single melt by fractional crystallization. The numerical models of REE evolution in the 5241 melt, especially that of Eu, require that a significant mass of spinel-free island material was assimilated into the evolving melt during the last half of the solidification history of 5241. The trace element results pbtained thus strongly support the interpretation of El Goresy et al. (1985) that the spinel-free islands in the 5241 are trapped xenoliths.

Macpherson, Glenn J.↗

Some implications of mass extinction for the evolution of complex life

Extinction has the destructive effect of eliminating established lineages from an evolutionary system, and the constructive effect of vacating ecospace into which new lineages can evolve. Mass extinctions, which are times of unusually intense extinction, have been consistently followed by major radiations of new lineages. Extraterrestrial impacts associated with extinction events and a periodic recurrence of these events implicates an extraterrestrial forcing mechanism as the ultimate cause of mass extinction. This suggests that the extraplanetary environment has played an important, active role in the development of complex life on earth.

Sepkoski, J. J., Jr.↗

The Unusual Evolution of Hurricane Arthur 2014

Hurricane Arthur (2014) was an early season hurricane that had its roots in a convective complex in the Southern Plains of the U.S. As the complex moved into northern Texas, a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) formed and drifted towards the east of the southern U.S. for a few days before emerging over the southwest Atlantic near South Carolina. The MCV drifted south and slowly acquired tropical characteristics, eventually becoming a Category 2 hurricane that would affect much of eastern North Carolina prior to the 4th of July holiday weekend. Arthur continued up the coast, brushing portions of southeast New England and merged with an upper-level low, completing a full tropical to extratropical-transition in the process, producing damaging wind gusts in portions of the Canadian Maritimes. As part of the GOES-R and JPSS Satellite Proving Grounds, multiple proxy and operational products were available to analyze and forecast this complex evolution. The Storm Prediction Center had products available to monitor the initial severe thunderstorm aspect, while the National Hurricane Center and Ocean Prediction Center were able to monitor the tropical and extratropical transition of Arthur using various convective and red, green, blue (RGB) products that have been introduced in recent years. This paper will discuss Arthur's evolution through the eyes of the various Satellite Proving Ground demonstrations.

Folmer, Michael↗

Nonlinear instability of accelerating shock waves with application to supernovae

We consider the stability of a planar accelerating shock front in an exponential atmosphere, a situation that can be described by a self-similar solution. A previous linear instability analysis showed that there are three regimes, depending on the wavelength of the perturbation along the direction of the shock front: at long wavelengths the shock is unstable, at intermediate wavelengths it is overstable, and at short wavelenghts it is stable, where the characteristic length is set by the initial density scale height. We have carried out numerical simulations of such an accelerating shock front and have confirmed the results of the semianalytic linear analysis in the linear regime. In the nonlinear regime, the evolution again depends on the three wavelength domains. At long wavelengths, the instability continuously grows but the flow remains smooth, and at short wavelengths, the flow is stable. The intermediate wavelength, overstable regime shows more complex evolution. The growing linear oscillations saturate soon after entering the nonlinear regime and the oscillations continue with the same approximate period. The shock front develops moving points of intersection, which generate weak shock fronts and density and pressure structure in the immediate postshock flow. The density fluctuations, with a contrast of a factor of 2-3, become frozen into the downstream flow. The growth of the instability is slow, so substantial initial perturbations are needed; thesemay be present in Type II supernovae with red supergiant progenitor stars which have outer convective regions. The clumping in the outer supernova atmosphere may affect spectral line formation and may play a role in the formation of fast knots.

Luo, Ding↗