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DOE OSTI2024

Evolutionary Game Dynamics between Distributed Energy Resources and Microgrid Operator: Balancing Act for Power Factor Improvement

This article investigates the intricate dynamics between Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) and the Microgrid Operator (MGO) within a microgrid interconnected with the main grid. Employing an evolutionary game framework, the study scrutinizes the strategic evolution of DERs’ decision-making processes in their interactions with the MGO. Modeled as an evolutionary game, these interactions encapsulate the strategies adopted by DERs, resulting in stable equilibrium strategies over time. Motivated by direct benefits linked to increased active power production, DERs strive to sell all available power, while the MGO focuses on optimizing the microgrid’s overall performance. The study assesses the microgrid’s performance in terms of its power factor, emphasizing the strategic balance DERs must achieve in their active power generation to avoid penalization. This penalization results in decreased individual utility for DERs due to the overall power factor decrease resulting from their prioritization of active power generation. Additionally, the diminished overall power factor implies a decrease in MGO utility. The individual utility of each DER is further influenced by the strategies adopted by other DERs, impacting the penalization factor. Leveraging a modified IEEE 13-node distribution microgrid consisting of three DERs, the study presents case studies encompassing both cooperative and non-cooperative evolutionary game scenarios. These case studies illuminate the intricacies of interactions and the resulting equilibrium outcomes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2005

What Information Theory Says about Bounded Rational Best Response

Probability Collectives (PC) provides the information-theoretic extension of conventional full-rationality game theory to bounded rational games. Here an explicit solution to the equations giving the bounded rationality equilibrium of a game is presented. Then PC is used to investigate games in which the players use bounded rational best-response strategies. Next it is shown that in the continuum-time limit, bounded rational best response games result in a variant of the replicator dynamics of evolutionary game theory. It is then shown that for team (shared-payoff) games, this variant of replicator dynamics is identical to Newton-Raphson iterative optimization of the shared utility function.

Wolpert, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2004

What Information Theory Says About Best Response and About Binding Contracts

Product Distribution (PD) theory is the information-theoretic extension of conventional full- rationality game theory to bounded rational games. Here PD theory is used to investigate games in which the players use bounded rational best-response strategies. This investigation illuminates how to determine the optimal organization chart for a corporation, or more generally how to order the sequence of moves of the players / employees so as to optimize an overall objective function. It is then shown that in the continuum-time limit, bounded rational best response games result in a variant of the replicator dynamics of evolutionary game theory. This variant is then investigated for team games, in which the players share the same utility function, by showing that such continuum- limit bounded rational best response is identical to Newton-Raphson iterative optimization of the shared utility function. Next PD theory is used to investigate changing the coordinate system of the game, i.e., changing the mapping from the joint move of the players to the arguments in the utility functions. Such a change couples those arguments, essentially by making each players move be an offered binding contract.

Wolpert, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Nuclear Thermal Rocket (Ntr) Propulsion: A Proven Game-Changing Technology for Future Human Exploration Missions

The NTR represents the next evolutionary step in high performance rocket propulsion. It generates high thrust and has a specific impulse (Isp) of approx.900 seconds (s) or more V twice that of today s best chemical rockets. The technology is also proven. During the previous Rover and NERVA (Nuclear Engine for Rocket Vehicle Applications) nuclear rocket programs, 20 rocket reactors were designed, built and ground tested. These tests demonstrated: (1) a wide range of thrust; (2) high temperature carbide-based nuclear fuel; (3) sustained engine operation; (4) accumulated lifetime; and (5) restart capability V all the requirements needed for a human mission to Mars. Ceramic metal cermet fuel was also pursued, as a backup option. The NTR also has significant growth and evolution potential. Configured as a bimodal system, it can generate electrical power for the spacecraft. Adding an oxygen afterburner nozzle introduces a variable thrust and Isp capability and allows bipropellant operation. In NASA s recent Mars Design Reference Architecture (DRA) 5.0 study, the NTR was selected as the preferred propulsion option because of its proven technology, higher performance, lower launch mass, simple assembly and mission operations. In contrast to other advanced propulsion options, NTP requires no large technology scale-ups. In fact, the smallest engine tested during the Rover program V the 25,000 lbf (25 klbf) Pewee engine is sufficient for human Mars missions when used in a clustered engine arrangement. The Copernicus crewed spacecraft design developed in DRA 5.0 has significant capability and a human exploration strategy is outlined here that uses Copernicus and its key components for precursor near Earth asteroid (NEA) and Mars orbital missions prior to a Mars landing mission. Initially, the basic Copernicus vehicle can enable reusable 1-year round trip human missions to candidate NEAs like 1991 JW and Apophis in the late 2020 s to check out vehicle systems. Afterwards, the Copernicus spacecraft and its 2 key components, now configured as an Earth Return Vehicle / propellant tanker, would be used for a short round trip (approx.18 - 20 months)/short orbital stay (60 days) Mars / Phobos survey mission in 2033 using a split mission approach. The paper also discusses NASA s current Foundational Technology Development activities and its pre-decisional plans for future system-level Technology Demonstrations that include ground testing a small (approx.7.5 klbf) scalable NTR before the decade is out with a flight test shortly thereafter.

Borowski, Stanley K.↗

NASA NTRS1988

The hydrogen shell game - Pulsational instabilities in hydrogen shell-burning planetary nebula nuclei

Fully nonadiabatic g-mode pulsation calculations have been obtained for evolutionary models of planetary nebula nuclei (PNN) with active hydrogen-burning shells. Expressions have been developed for the phase delays which can develop between the temperature variations and the abundance variations of agents in the CN cycle. G-mode instabilities are noted that are driven by the epsilon mechanism at the position of the nuclear burning shells in standard PNN models. The results indicate that the central stars do not retain sufficient hydrogen to support nuclear burning following ejection of the planetary nebula.

Kawaler, Steven D.↗

NASA NTRS2014

NASA's Space Launch System: A Cornerstone Capability for Exploration

Under construction today, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS), managed at the Marshall Space Flight Center, will provide a robust new capability for human and robotic exploration beyond Earth orbit. The vehicle's initial configuration, scheduled for first launch in 2017, will enable human missions into lunar space and beyond, as well as provide game-changing benefits for space science missions, including offering substantially reduced transit times for conventionally designed spacecraft. From there, the vehicle will undergo a series of block upgrades via an evolutionary development process designed to expedite mission capture as capability increases. The Space Launch System offers multiple benefits for a variety of utilization areas. From a mass-lift perspective, the initial configuration of the vehicle, capable of delivering 70 metric tons (t) to low Earth orbit (LEO), will be the world's most powerful launch vehicle. Optimized for missions beyond Earth orbit, it will also be the world's only exploration-class launch vehicle capable of delivering 25 t to lunar orbit. The evolved configuration, with a capability of 130 t to LEO, will be the most powerful launch vehicle ever flown. From a volume perspective, SLS will be compatible with the payload envelopes of contemporary launch vehicles, but will also offer options for larger fairings with unprecedented volume-lift capability. The vehicle's mass-lift capability also means that it offers extremely high characteristic energy for missions into deep space. This paper will discuss the impacts that these factors - mass-lift, volume, and characteristic energy - have on a variety of mission classes, particularly human exploration and space science. It will address the vehicle's capability to enable existing architectures for deep-space exploration, such as those documented in the Global Exploration Roadmap, a capabilities-driven outline for future deep-space voyages created by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group, which represents 12 of the world's space agencies. In addition, this paper will detail this new rocket's capability to support missions beyond the human exploration roadmap, including robotic precursor missions to other worlds or uniquely high-mass space operation facilities in Earth orbit. As this paper will explain, the SLS Program is currently building a global infrastructure asset that will provide robust space launch capability to deliver sustainable solutions for exploration.

Creech, Stephen D.↗

NASA NTRS2014

NASA Space Launch System: A Cornerstone Capability for Exploration

Under construction today, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS), managed at the Marshall Space Flight Center, will provide a robust new capability for human and robotic exploration beyond Earth orbit. The vehicle's initial configuration, sched will enable human missions into lunar space and beyond, as well as provide game-changing benefits for space science missions, including offering substantially reduced transit times for conventionally designed spacecraft. From there, the vehicle will undergo a series of block upgrades via an evolutionary development process designed to expedite mission capture as capability increases. The Space Launch System offers multiple benefits for a variety of utilization areas. From a mass-lift perspective, the initial configuration of the vehicle, capable of delivering 70 metric tons (t) to low Earth orbit (LEO), will be the world's most powerful launch vehicle. Optimized for missions beyond Earth orbit, it will also be the world's only exploration-class launch vehicle capable of delivering 25 t to lunar orbit. The evolved configuration, with a capability of 130 t to LEO, will be the most powerful launch vehicle ever flown. From a volume perspective, SLS will be compatible with the payload envelopes of contemporary launch vehicles, but will also offer options for larger fairings with unprecedented volume-lift capability. The vehicle's mass-lift capability also means that it offers extremely high characteristic energy for missions into deep space. This paper will discuss the impacts that these factors - mass-lift, volume, and characteristic energy - have on a variety of mission classes, particularly human exploration and space science. It will address the vehicle's capability to enable existing architectures for deep-space exploration, such as those documented in the Global Exploration Roadmap, a capabilities-driven outline for future deep-space voyages created by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group, which represents 14 of the world's space agencies. In addition, this paper will detail this new rocket's capability to support missions beyond the human exploration roadmap, including robotic precursor missions to other worlds or uniquely high-mass space operation facilities in Earth orbit. As this paper will explain, the SLS Program is currently building a global infrastructure asset that will provide robust space launch capability to deliver sustainable solutions for exploration.

Creech, Stephen D.↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Cis-Lunar Propellant Infrastructure for Flexible Path Exploration and Space Commerce

This paper describes a space infrastructure concept that exploits lunar water for propellant production and delivers it to users in cis-lunar space. The goal is to provide responsive economical space transportation to destinations beyond low Earth orbit (LEO) and enable in-space commerce. This is a game changing concept that could fundamentally affect future space operations, provide greater access to space beyond LEO, and broaden participation in space exploration. The challenge is to minimize infrastructure development cost while achieving a low operational cost. This study discusses the evolutionary development of the infrastructure from a very modest robotic operation to one that is capable of supporting human operations. The cis-lunar infrastructure involves a mix of technologies including cryogenic propellant production, reusable lunar landers, propellant tankers, orbital transfer vehicles, aerobraking technologies, and electric propulsion. This cislunar propellant infrastructure replaces Earth-launched propellants for missions beyond LEO. It enables users to reach destinations with smaller launchers or effectively multiplies the user s existing payload capacity. Users can exploit the expanded capacity to launch logistics material that can then be traded with the infrastructure for propellants. This mutually beneficial trade between the cis-lunar infrastructure and propellant users forms the basis of in-space commerce.

Oeftering, Richard C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Innovation in Extraterrestrial Service Systems - A Challenge for Service Science

This presentation was prepared at the invitation of Professor Yukio Ohsawa, Department of Systems Innovation, School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, for delivery at the International Workshop on Innovating Service Systems, sponsored by the Japanese Society of Artificial Intelligence (JSAI) as part of the JSAI Internation Symposium on AI, 2010. It offers several challenges for Service Science and Service Innovation. the goal of the presentation is to stimulate thinking about how service systems viII evolve in the future, as human society advances from its terrestrial base toward a permanent presence in space. First we will consider the complexity of the International Space Station (ISS) as it is today, with particular emphasis of its research facilities, and focus on a current challenge - to maximize the utilization of ISS research facilities for the benefit of society. After briefly reviewing the basic principles of Service Science, we will discuss the potential application of Service Innovation methodology to this challenge. Then we viII consider how game-changing technologies - in particular Synthetic Biology - could accelerate the pace of sociocultural evolution and consequently, the progression of human society into space. We will use this provocative vision to advance thinking about how the emerging field of Service Science, Management, and Engineering (SSME) might help us anticipate and better handle the challenges of this inevitable evolutionary process.

Bergner, David↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Game-Theoretic Modeling of Vegetation Composition, Structure, and Dynamics: Physical Constraints, Fundamental Processes, and Emergent Properties

Vegetation structural and compositional dynamics emerge from plant physiological and demographic processes, individual-based competition, vegetation-soil feedbacks, and environmental variations and disturbance events. Predicting long-term changes in vegetation requires scaling plant individual behavior to large scale ecosystem processes. In this presentation, we summarize our studies in the modeling of vegetation demographic processes, competitively dominant plant traits, plant hydraulic processes, and stochastic disturbance effects on ecosystems, and illustrate the roles of the underlying ecological processes and eco-evolutionary optimization in vegetation modeling. With the case studies of evolutionarily stable strategy of allocation, leaf traits, and plant hydraulic processes, we show how the ecosystem processes and vegetation dynamics are determined by the individual-based plant competition and variations of soil and climate conditions. The predictions of ecosystem carbon dynamics can be greatly different with those from the traditional “single-tree” models. We also discuss the tradeoffs of plant traits and evolutionarily optimal strategies in the modeling of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics in an Earth system model.

vegetation models↗

NASA NTRS2001

X-traktor: A Rookie Robot, Simple, Yet Complex, Impeccably Designed, a Very Innovative Multidisciplinary Engineering Masterpiece

FIRST is the acronym of For Inspiration and Recognition of Science and Technology. FIRST is a 501.C.3 non-profit organization whose mission is to generate an interest in science and engineering among today's young adults and youth. This mission is accomplished through a robot competition held annually in the spring of each year. NASAs Marshall Space Flight Center, Education Programs Department, awarded a grant to Lee High School, the sole engineering magnet school in Huntsville, Alabama. MSFC awarded the grant in hopes of fulfilling its goal of giving back invaluable resources to its community and engineers, as well as educating tomorrow's work force in the high-tech area of science and technology. Marshall engineers, Lee High School students and teachers, and a host of other volunteers and parents officially initiated this robot design process and competitive strategic game plan. The FIRST Robotics Competition is a national engineering contest, which immerses high school students in the exciting world of science and engineering. Teaming with engineers from government agencies, businesses, and universities enables the students to learn about the engineering profession. The students and engineers have six weeks to work together to brainstorm, design, procure, construct, and test their robot. The team then competes in a spirited, 'no-holds barred' tournament, complete with referees, other FIRST-designed robots, cheerleaders, and time clocks. The partnerships developed between schools, government agencies, businesses, and universities provide an exchange of resources and talent that build cooperation and expose students to new and rewarding career options. The result is a fun, exciting, and stimulating environment in which all participants discover the important connections between classroom experiences and real-world applications. This paper will highlight the story, engineering development, and evolutionary design of Xtraktor, the rookie robot, a manufacturing marvel and engineering achievement.

Henderson, A. J., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Intrinsic and environmental drivers of pairwise cohesion in wild Canis social groups

Animals within social groups respond to costs and benefits of sociality by adjusting the proportion of time they spend in close proximity to other individuals in the group (cohesion). Variation in cohesion between individuals, in turn, shapes important group-level processes such as subgroup formation and fission–fusion dynamics. Although critical to animal sociality, a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing cohesion remains a gap in our knowledge of cooperative behavior in animals. We tracked 574 individuals from six species within the genus Canis in 15 countries on four continents with GPS telemetry to estimate the time that pairs of individuals within social groups spent in close proximity and test hypotheses regarding drivers of cohesion. Pairs of social canids (Canis spp.) varied widely in the proportion of time they spent together (5%–100%) during seasonal monitoring periods relative to both intrinsic characteristics and environmental conditions. The majority of our data came from three species of wolves (gray wolves, eastern wolves, and red wolves) and coyotes. For these species, cohesion within social groups was greatest between breeding pairs and varied seasonally as the nature of cooperative activities changed relative to annual life history patterns. Across species, wolves were more cohesive than coyotes. For wolves, pairs were less cohesive in larger groups, and when suitable, small prey was present reflecting the constraints of food resources and intragroup competition on social associations. Pair cohesion in wolves declined with increased anthropogenic modification of the landscape and greater climatic variability, underscoring challenges for conserving social top predators in a changing world. We show that pairwise cohesion in social groups varies strongly both within and across Canis species, as individuals respond to changing ecological context defined by resources, competition, and anthropogenic disturbance. Our work highlights that cohesion is a highly plastic component of animal sociality that holds significant promise for elucidating ecological and evolutionary mechanisms underlying cooperative behavior.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗