Adaption of evolutionary programming to the prediction of solar flares
Adapting evolutionary programming to prediction of solar flares
PROGRAMMING↗
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Observational Effects of Magnetism in O Stars: Surface Nitrogen Abundances
Aims. We investigate the surface nitrogen content of the six magnetic O stars known to date as well as of the early B-type star Tau Sco.. We compare these abundances to predictions of evolutionary models to isolate the effects of magnetic field on the transport of elements in stellar interiors. Methods. We conduct a quantitative spectroscopic analysis of the ample stars with state-of-the-art atmosphere models. We rely on high signal-to-noise ratio, high resolution optical spectra obtained with ESPADONS at CFHT and NARVAL at TBL. Atmosphere models and synthetic spectra are computed with the code CMFGEN. Values of N/H together with their uncertainties are determined and compared to predictions of evolutionary models. Results. We find that the magnetic stars can be divided into two groups: one with stars displaying no N enrichment (one object); and one with stars most likely showing extra N enrichment (5 objects). For one star (Ori C) no robust conclusion can be drawn due to its young age. The star with no N enrichment is the one with the weakest magnetic field, possibly of dynamo origin. It might be a star having experienced strong magnetic braking under the condition of solid body rotation, but its rotational velocity is still relatively large. The five stars with high N content were probably slow rotators on the zero age main sequence, but they have surface N/H typical of normal O stars, indicating that the presence of a (probably fossil) magnetic field leads to extra enrichment. These stars may have a strong differential rotation inducing shear mixing. Our results shOuld be viewed as a basis on which new theoretical simulations can rely to better understand the effect of magnetism on the evolution of massive stars.
Martins, F.↗
The biology of mass extinction: a palaeontological view
Extinctions are not biologically random: certain taxa or functional/ecological groups are more extinction-prone than others. Analysis of molluscan survivorship patterns for the end-Cretaceous mass extinctions suggests that some traits that tend to confer extinction resistance during times of normal ('background') levels of extinction are ineffectual during mass extinction. For genera, high species-richness and possession of widespread individual species imparted extinction-resistance during background times but not during the mass extinction, when overall distribution of the genus was an important factor. Reanalysis of Hoffman's (1986) data (Neues Jb. Geol. Palaont. Abh. 172, 219) on European bivalves, and preliminary analysis of a new northern European data set, reveals a similar change in survivorship rules, as do data scattered among other taxa and extinction events. Thus taxa and adaptations can be lost not because they were poorly adapted by the standards of the background processes that constitute the bulk of geological time, but because they lacked--or were not linked to--the organismic, species-level or clade-level traits favoured under mass-extinction conditions. Mass extinctions can break the hegemony of species-rich, well-adapted clades and thereby permit radiation of taxa that had previously been minor faunal elements; no net increase in the adaptation of the biota need ensue. Although some large-scale evolutionary trends transcend mass extinctions, post extinction evolutionary pathways are often channelled in directions not predictable from evolutionary patters during background times.
Non-NASA Center↗
Evidence for a dispersion in the lithium abundances of extreme halo stars
Evidence is presented to the effect that there exists a small dispersion in the lithium abundances of extreme halo dwarfs. This dispersion cannot be accounted for by standard stellar models alone, particularly toward the turnoff, and would thus require early differential Galactic Li enrichment, perhaps independent of metallicity. The magnitude of the dispersion is also consistent with the predictions of evolutionary models of halo stars with rotation, which do not require, but do not rule out either, early Galactic enrichment. These rotational models also predict a significant depletion in the lithium abundance during the stars' lifetime. The rotational models predict that stars which formed with very low initial angular momentum will have lithium abundances measurably above the plateau.
Deliyannis, Constantine P.↗
Characterization of the Gaseous Companion k Andromedae B* New Keck and LBTI High-contrast Observations
Context. We previously reported the direct detection of a low mass companion at a projected separation of 55+/-2 astronomical units around the B9 type star kappa Andromedae. The properties of the system (mass ratio, separation) make it a benchmark for the understanding of the formation and evolution of gas giant planets and brown dwarfs on wide-orbits. Aims. We present new angular differential imaging (ADI) images of the system at 2.146 (K(sub s)), 3.776 (L'), 4.052 (NB 4.05) and 4.78 micrometers (M') obtained with Keck/NIRC2 and LBTI/LMIRCam, as well as more accurate near-infrared photometry of the star with the MIMIR instrument. We aim to determine the near-infrared spectral energy distribution (SED) of the companion and use it to characterize the object. Methods. We used analysis methods adapted to ADI to extract the companion flux. We compared the photometry of the object to reference young/old objects and to a set of seven PHOENIX-based atmospheric models of cool objects accounting for the formation of dust. We used evolutionary models to derive mass estimates considering a wide range of plausible initial conditions. Finally, we used dedicated formation models to discuss the possible origin of the companion. Results. We derive a more accurate J = 15.86 +/- 0.21, H = 14.95 +/- 0.13, K(sub s) = 14.32 +/- 0.09 mag for kappa And b. We redetect the companion in all our high contrast observations. We confirm previous contrasts obtained at K(sub s) and L' band. We derive NB 4.05 = 13.0 +/- 0.2 and M' = 13.3 +/- 0.3 mag and estimate Log(base 10)(L/solar luminosity) = −3.76 +/- 0.06. Atmospheric models yield T(sub eff) = 1900(+100/−200) K. They do not set constrains on the surface gravity. "Hot-start" evolutionary models predict masses of 14(+25/−2) Jupiter mass based on the luminosity and temperature estimates, and considering a conservative age range for the system (30(+120/−10) million years). "warm-start" evolutionary tracks constrain the mass to M greater than or equal to 11 Jupiter mass. Conclusions. The mass of kappa Andromedae b mostly falls in the brown-dwarf regime, due to remaining uncertainties in age and mass-luminosity models. According to the formation models, disk instability in a primordial disk could account for the position and a wide range of plausible masses of kappa and b.
spectral energy distribution (SED)↗
Orbital Characterization of GJ1108A System, and Comparison of Dynamical Mass with Model-Derived Mass for Resolved Binaries
We report an orbital characterization of GJ1108Aab that is a low-mass binary system in the pre-main-sequence phase. Via the combination of astrometry using adaptive optics and radial velocity measurements, an eccentric orbital solution of e = 0.63 is obtained, which might be induced by the Kozai–Lidov mechanism with a widely separated GJ1108B system. Combined with several observed properties, we confirm that the system is indeed young. Columba is the most probable moving group, to which the GJ1108A system belongs, although its membership to the group has not been established. If the age of Columba is assumed for GJ1108A, the dynamical masses of both GJ1108Aa and GJ1108Ab (M(sub dynamical,GJ1108Aa) = 0.72 ± 0.04 Solar Mass and M(sub dynamical,GJ1108Ab) = 0.30 ± 0.03 Solar Mass) are more massive than what an evolutionary model predicts based on the age and luminosities. We consider that the discrepancy in mass comparison can be attributed to an age uncertainty; the system is likely older than stars in Columba, and effects that are not implemented in classical models such as accretion history and magnetic activity are not preferred to explain the mass discrepancy. We also discuss the performance of the evolutionary model by compiling similar low-mass objects in the evolutionary state based on the literature. Consequently, it is suggested that the current model on average reproduces the mass of resolved low-mass binaries without any significant offsets.
Mizuki, T.↗
The Effects of Surface Fossil Magnetic Fields on Massive Star Evolution: IV. Grids of Models at Solar, LMC, and SMC Metallicities
Magnetic fields can drastically change predictions of evolutionary models of massive stars via mass-loss quenching, magnetic braking, and efficient angular momentum transport, which we aim to quantify in this work. We use the MESA software instrument to compute an e xtensiv e main-sequence grid of stellar structure and evolution models, as well as isochrones, accounting for the effects attributed to a surface fossil magnetic field. The grid is densely populated in initial mass (3–60 M ), surface equatorial magnetic field strength (0–50 kG), and metallicity (representative of the Solar neighbourhood and the Magellanic Clouds). We use two magnetic braking and two chemical mixing schemes and compare the model predictions for slowly rotating, nitrogen- enriched (‘Group 2’) stars with observations in the Large Magellanic Cloud. We quantify a range of initial field strengths that allow for producing Group 2 stars and find that typical values (up to a few kG) lead to solutions. Between the subgrids, we find notable departures in surface abundances and evolutionary paths. In our magnetic models, chemical mixing is al w ays less efficient compared to non-magnetic models due to the rapid spin-down. We identify that quasi-chemically homogeneous main sequence evolution by efficient mixing could be prevented by fossil magnetic fields. We recommend comparing this grid of evolutionary models with spectropolarimetric and spectroscopic observations with the goals of (i) revisiting the derived stellar parameters of known magnetic stars, and (ii) observationally constraining the uncertain magnetic braking and chemical mixing schemes.
stars: abundances↗
Updated Orbital Monitoring and Dynamical Masses for Nearby M-dwarf Binaries
Young M-type binaries are particularly useful for precise isochronal dating by taking advantage of their extended pre-main sequence evolution. Orbital monitoring of these low-mass objects becomes essential in constraining their fundamental properties, as dynamical masses can be extracted from their Keplerian motion. Here, we present the combined efforts of the AstraLux Large Multiplicity Survey, together with a filler sub-programme from the SpHere INfrared Exoplanet (SHINE) project and previously unpublished data from the FastCam lucky imaging camera at the Nordical Optical Telescope (NOT) and the NaCo instrument at the Very Large Telescope (VLT). Building on previous work, we use archival and new astrometric data to constrain orbital parameters for 20 M-type binaries. We identify that eight of the binaries have strong Bayesian probabilities and belong to known young moving groups (YMGs). We provide a first attempt at constraining orbital parameters for 14 of the binaries in our sample, with the remaining six having previously fitted orbits for which we provide additional astrometric data and updated Gaia parallaxes. The substantial orbital information built up here for four of the binaries allows for direct comparison between individual dynamical masses and theoretical masses from stellar evolutionary model isochrones, with an additional three binary systems with tentative individual dynamical mass estimates likely to be improved in the near future. We attained an overall agreement between the dynamical masses and the theoretical masses from the isochrones based on the assumed YMG age of the respective binary pair. The two systems with the best orbital constrains for which we obtained individual dynamical masses, J0728 and J2317, display higher dynamical masses than predicted by evolutionary models.
Astrometry / binaries↗
CNO abundances and hydrodynamic studies of the Nova outburst. V - 1.00-solar-mass models with small mass envelopes
The paper reports on an investigation into the consequences of thermonuclear runaways in accreted hydrogen envelopes of 100 millionths of a solar mass on 1-solar-mass white dwarfs. These evolutionary sequences predict that from 10 to 50 millionths of a solar mass will be ejected with speeds from 300 to 3800 km/s (kinetic energies of 10 to the 44th-45th power ergs). Absolute visual magnitudes as high as -8.1 are attained, well within the observed range for fast novae. In addition, the shapes of the theoretical light curves are more reminiscent of an observed fast-nova light curve than those in earlier studies. The ejected material is strongly enhanced in the products of incomplete CNO burning; the most abundant of the ejected nuclei is C-13, followed by N-14 and C-12. The differences from previous studies are attributable to the lower peak temperatures reached in these sequences. These models also produce a large overabundance of Li-7, suggesting that novae may represent significant contributors to the galactic enrichment of this nucleus.
Starrfield, S.↗
Flare loop radiative hydrodynamics. I - Basic methods
The study presented here has two goals. The first is to examine the role of energy transport mechanisms in flare dynamics, for instance, thermal cone conduction in the corona and radiative transfer in the chromosphere. The second is to provide diagnostics of flare energization processes by predicting the evolutionary behavior of concurrent emissions from all regions of the flaring atmosphere. To attain these ends, a numerical method is developed for the simultaneous solution of thy continuity, momentum, and energy equations; the time-dependent atomic rate equations describing ionization and excitation; and the radiative transfer equations. With the physical model and computational methods used here, all components of the plasma move as a single fluid and in the initial studies are assumed to have a common kinetic temperature. The plasma is constrained to move in one dimension along the axis of a loop of nonuniform cross section, the geometry of which is defined by a sufficiently strong magnetic field.
Mcclymont, A. N.↗
The Need for Earth-Based Experiments to Inform Microbial Evolution on Planetary Surfaces
Introduction: Historically, the focus of planetary protection at NASA has been on unmanned, robotic missions. Such missions have paved the way for understanding how to implement planetary protection in a feasible and cost-sensitive way. However, with the introduction of crewed missions to Mars in the not-sodistant future, there is a need to better define and understand how to implement planetary protection under new circumstances, as well as understand the risk of contaminating Mars. One unavoidable fact is that microbes will go where humans go. Therefore, it is critical to understand how these microbes may (and will) impact our ability to conduct meaningful, reliable astrobiological science. Microorganisms have spent millions of years evolving to survive in extreme environments here on Earth. Already there are indications that microbes aboard the International Space Station evolve and adapt to life in low earth orbit. The microbes that are eventually taken to Mars with humans will also adapt, potentially causing harmful effects to crew and/or the planetary or astrobiological science conducted. Therefore, it is of critical interest that we evaluate and characterize the potential risks of microbial evolution on Mars. It is expected that microbes carried by humans will begin to evolve to new environments even before landing on Mars, during the several month cruise phase. Once landed, microbes will encounter different stressors within the crew habitats on Mars. During extravehicular activities, venting, or other release events, microbes will find their way out onto the Martian surface. The induced environments around crewed systems will create potentially-favorable conditions for microbes to continue evolving on Mars. Eventually, microbes may find their way beyond the close confines of the crewed area and continue evolving so as to fill new or distant niches on the Martian surface. It is challenging to replicate Martian environments here on Earth, making it nearly impossible to predict the evolutionary changes that microbes would undergo on Mars. But this work is critical. Serial passaging experiments performed by Richard Lenski on E. coli show the dramatic changes microbes can undergo even within a laboratory setting. Furthermore, experiments performed by Michael Baym also demonstrate the power of single mutations in microbial development of antibiotic resistance [3]. Long duration experiments should be performed on a suite of microbes exposed to environments likely to be experienced on the Martian surface. While simulating space environments can be challenging, facilities exist that can achieve individual and combinatorial environmental conditions to simulate space and planetary conditions. Such chambers should be employed for microbial studies. Currently, at the Marshall Space Flight Center, we have used various stressors like drying, vacuum, proton radiation, and ultraviolet light both separately and in combination, to evaluate the survival of cleanroom microbes. Shockingly, several non-spore forming isolates have demonstrated the ability to survive many extreme conditions (manuscript in preparation). These short duration exposures must be augmented with larger and more gradual studies to replicate what microbes might experience in the transition from cruise, to surface habitats, to induced surface environments, and finally true Martian environments. While no Earth-based experiment can perfectly replicate the Martian environment, nor could we test every possible microbe in simulation experimental regimes, efforts should be made to examine the evolutionary potential of the “usual suspects” seen on the ISS or in other crewed environments to begin to fill this important knowledge gap.
Chelsi D. Cassilly↗
NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) Project Qualification Propellant Throughput Milestone: Performance, Erosion, and Thruster Service Life Prediction After 450 kg
The NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is tasked with significantly improving and extending the capabilities of current state-of-the-art NSTAR thruster. The service life capability of the NEXT ion thruster is being assessed by thruster wear test and life-modeling of critical thruster components, such as the ion optics and cathodes. The NEXT Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated to validate and qualify the NEXT thruster propellant throughput capability. The NEXT thruster completed the primary goal of the LDT; namely to demonstrate the project qualification throughput of 450 kg by the end of calendar year 2009. The NEXT LDT has demonstrated 28,500 hr of operation and processed 466 kg of xenon throughput--more than double the throughput demonstrated by the NSTAR flight-spare. Thruster performance changes have been consistent with a priori predictions. Thruster erosion has been minimal and consistent with the thruster service life assessment, which predicts the first failure mode at greater than 750 kg throughput. The life-limiting failure mode for NEXT is predicted to be loss of structural integrity of the accelerator grid due to erosion by charge-exchange ions.
Herman, Daniel A.↗
Large planetary nebulae and their significance to the late stages of stellar evolution
Spectrophotometry of 75 large PNe with Shklovsky radii greater than 0.15 pc is presented and used to calculate nebular parameters and compositions, stellar Zanstra temperatures and luminosities, and core masses. Nine new Peimbert type I nebulae are identified. About 40 percent of the stars that are on cooling tracks are above 0.7 solar mass, and over 15 percent are above 0.8 solar mass. The large planetaries demonstrate a clear positive correlation between nitrogen enrichment and core mass. N/O is anticorrelated with O/H. The radii of the nebulae whose stars lie along specific cooling tracks increase monotonically with decreasing central star temperature. For a given central temperature, the nebular radii also increase with increasing core mass, showing that in this part of the log L-log T plane the higher mass cores evolve more slowly in agreement with theoretical prediction. However, theoretical evolutionary rates for the large nebulae stars appear to be much too slow.
Kaler, James B.↗
Outflow-Induced Dynamical and Radiative Instability in Stellar Envelopes with an Application to Luminous Blue Variables and Wolf-Rayet Stars
Theoretical models of the remnants of massive stars in a very hot, post-red-supergiant phase display no obvious instability if standard assumptions are made. However, the brightest observed classical luminous blue variables (LBVs) may well belong to such a phase. A simple time-dependent theory of moving stellar envelopes is developed in order to treat deep hydrodynamical disturbances caused by surface mass loss and to test the moving envelopes for dynamical instability. In the case of steady-state outflow, the theory reduces to the equivalent of the Castor, Abbott, and Klein formulation for optically thick winds at distances well above the sonic point. The time-dependent version indicates that the brightest and hottest LBVs are both dynamically and radiatively unstable, as a result of the substantial lowering of the generalized Eddington luminosity limit by the mass-loss acceleration. It is suggested that dynamical instability, by triggering secular cycles of mass loss, is primarily what differentiates LBVs from the purely radiatively unstable Wolf-Rayet stars. Furthermore, when accurate main-sequence mass-loss rates are used to calculate the evolutionary tracks, the predicted surface hydrogen and nitrogen abundances of the blue remnants agree much better with observations of the brightest LBVs than before.
Stothers, Richard B.↗
Intergalactic Photon Spectra from the Far-IR to the UV Lyman Limit for 0 < z < 6 and the Optical Depth of the Universe to High-Energy Gamma Rays
We calculate the intergalactic photon density as a function of both energy and redshift for 0<z<6 for photon energies from.003 eV to the Lyman limit cutoff at 13.6 eV in a (Omega)CDM universe with (Omega)(Lambda)=0.7 and (Omega)m=0.3. The basic features of our backward-evolution model for galaxies were developed in earlier papers by Malkan & Stecker. With a few improvements, we find that this evolutionary model gives predictions of new deep number counts from Spitzer, as well as a calculation of the spectral energy distribution of the diffuse infrared background, which are in good agreement with the data. We then use our calculated intergalactic photon densities to extend previous work on the absorption of high-energy Gamma-rays in intergalactic space owing to interactions with low-energy photons and the 2.7 K cosmic microwave background radiation. We calculate the optical depth of the universe, Tau , for Gamma-rays having energies from 4 GeV to 100 TeV emitted by sources at redshifts from 0 to 5. We also give an analytic fit with numerical coefficients for approximating (E(Gamma), z). As an example of the application of our results, we calculate the absorbed spectrum of the blazar PKS 2155-304 at z=0.117 and compare it with the spectrum observed by the HESS air Cerenkov Gamma-ray telescope array.
Stecker, F. W.↗
Photoevaporation and the Dispersal of Disks
Disk disperse in a few million years, before which they must form planets. Photoevaporation and viscosity are mainly responsible for disk dispersal. EUV, FUV and X-rays have all been suggested as photoevaporation agents, disk evolutionary scenarios and predicted mass loss rates in each case differ. Stellar mass and radiation field, disk properties, magnitude of viscosity, and dust evolution all play significant roles in determining the evolution of the disk and its lifetime. Observational diagnostics of photoevaperative flows include [Nell] and perhaps [OI]. These are at present inconclusive and better diagnostics are needed.
Stellar accretion↗
Toward autonomous spacecraft
Ways in which autonomous behavior of spacecraft can be extended to treat situations wherein a closed loop control by a human may not be appropriate or even possible are explored. Predictive models that minimize mean least squared error and arbitrary cost functions are discussed. A methodology for extracting cyclic components for an arbitrary environment with respect to usual and arbitrary criteria is developed. An approach to prediction and control based on evolutionary programming is outlined. A computer program capable of predicting time series is presented. A design of a control system for a robotic dense with partially unknown physical properties is presented.
Fogel, L. J.↗
Coronae on Venus observations and models of origin
The Venera 15/16 spacecraft revealed a number of features of unknown origin including coronae, elongate to circular structures with a complex interior surrounded by an annulus of concentric ridges. Eighteen coronae were identified in Venera 15/16 data of Venus; an additional thirteen possible coronae are found in Pioneer Venus and Arecibo data. Coronae, with maximum widths of 160 to over 650 km, are found primarily in two clusters in the Northern Hemisphere located to the east and west of Ishtar Terra. Another possible cluster is located in Themis Regio in the Southern Hemisphere. The majority of coronae are at least partially raised less than 1.5 km above the surrounding region, and over half are partially surrounded by a peripheral trough. A sequence of events for coronae has been determined through mapping. Prior to corona formation, regional compression or extension creates bands of lineaments along which coronae tend to later form. During the early stages of corona formation, relatively raised topography is produced by uplift and volcanic construction. The evolution of coronae and their general characteristics have been compared to two models of corona origin: hotspots and sinking mantle diapirs. In the hotspot or rising mantle diapir model, heating and melting at depth create uplift at the surface. Uplift is accompanied by central extension, facilitating volcanism. Gravitational relaxation of the uplifted region follows producing the compressional features within the annulus and the peripheral trough. Both models can predict the major characteristics and evolutionary sequence of coronae. The sinking diapir model does predict an early-time low and central compression as well as broadening and shallowing of the peripheral trough with time, all of which are not observed at current data resolution. In addition, the sinking mantle diapir mode predicts more simultaneous formation of the high topography, annulus and trough unlike the hotspot or rising mantle diapir mode. High resolution Magellan data will be used to distinguish between the two models of corona origin.
Stofan, E. R.↗