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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Reopening California: Seeking robust, non-dominated COVID-19 exit strategies

The COVID-19 pandemic required significant public health interventions from local governments. Although nonpharmaceutical interventions often were implemented as decision rules, few studies evaluated the robustness of those reopening plans under a wide range of uncertainties. This paper uses the Robust Decision Making approach to stress-test 78 alternative reopening strategies, using California as an example. This study uniquely considers a wide range of uncertainties and demonstrates that seemingly sensible reopening plans can lead to both unnecessary COVID-19 deaths and days of interventions. We find that plans using fixed COVID-19 case thresholds might be less effective than strategies with time-varying reopening thresholds. While we use California as an example, our results are particularly relevant for jurisdictions where vaccination roll-out has been slower. The approach used in this paper could also prove useful for other public health policy problems in which policymakers need to make robust decisions in the face of deep uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Swift and extensive Omicron outbreak in China after sudden exit from ‘zero-COVID’ policy

In late 2022, China transitioned from a strict ‘zero-COVID’ policy to rapidly abandoning nearly all interventions and data reporting. This raised great concern about the presumably-rapid but unreported spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in a very large population of very low pre-existing immunity. By modeling a combination of case count and survey data, we show that Omicron spread extremely rapidly, at a rate of 0.42/day (95% credibility interval: [0.35, 0.51]/day), translating to an epidemic doubling time of 1.6 days ([1.6, 2.0] days) after the full exit from zero-COVID on Dec. 7, 2022. Consequently, we estimate that the vast majority of the population (97% [95%, 99%], sensitivity analysis lower limit of 90%) was infected during December, with the nation-wide epidemic peaking on Dec. 23. Overall, our results highlight the extremely high transmissibility of the variant and the importance of proper design of intervention exit strategies to avoid large infection waves.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Panel Session 26: Risk-Based Approaches to Environmental Remediation and Adaptive Site Management

This panel discussed the needs and importance of developing risk-based approaches to environmental remediation that will enable complex sites to be adaptively managed by applying cost-effective remedies that are protective of human health and the environment. The discussion emphasized risk-based approaches within decision processes and subsequent incorporation into regulatory decision documents. Remedy approaches, remediation exit strategies, and long-term monitoring plans that support risk-based end-states for difficult-to-remediate sites were discussed Panelists with presentations: Risk-Informed Approaches to Environmental Remediation and Adaptive Site Management (Vicky Freedman); ITRC Adaptive Site Management Perspective (Michael Truex); Optimization During Operations and Maintenance Phase at the Hanford Site 200-ZP-1 Groundwater Operable Unit (Emerald Laija, Kate Amrhein, Michael Truex); Adaptive Management: EPA Overview (Benjamin Simes); Decommissioning and Environmental Remediation Section Division of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology (Horst Monken Fernandes)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Status Update on TRAC: A DOE-EM Tool for Tracking Groundwater Cleanup and Progress Toward Site Closure - 20245

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) uses a customized, web-based mapping tool called TRAC (Tracking Restoration and Closure) to communicate information on plume sizes, remedial approaches, regulatory drivers, exit strategies, and long-term stewardship requirements at all sites within the DOE-EM complex. The web-based GIS story maps provide robust geospatial visualization of plumes at DOE sites using an intuitive interface that allows users to explore the plume maps, explanatory text, photographs, and video. This collection of story maps not only communicates information for each individual site, but also summarizes pertinent metrics on cleanup and remaining contaminants across all EM sites. This paper describes a new design within TRAC for communicating metrics on plume status, regulatory cleanup progress, and technology implementation. A principal benefit of TRAC is the ability to view individual pieces of data at a time, permitting targeted questions to be addressed, such as the status of regulatory decisions, site cleanup priorities, and site closure needs for each site within the DOE-EM complex. TRAC manages communication and supports decision-making through knowledge access, data and information transparency and traceability, and inclusive participation. It serves as a common resource that provides consistent information for DOE managers, site personnel, regulators and stakeholders. Because long-term stewardship of legacy waste sites requires ongoing coordination and communication among DOE, regulators, and stakeholders, TRAC can also be used to help transition EM sites to the Office of Legacy Management at site closure. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Results of a Soil Flushing Treatability Test for Hanford Site Hexavalent Chromium Removal - 20446

U.S. Department of Energy contractor CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation Company has made significant progress remediating hexavalent chromium in groundwater near the Columbia River through the operation of pump and treat facilities and source removal activities. To mitigate risks associated with hexavalent chromium contamination, which was identified in a CERCLA interim action record of decision as the primary groundwater contaminant of concern for the 100-KR-4 Operable Unit from discharging to the Columbia River, three ion-exchange pump and treat systems were installed between 1997 and 2009. Between 2010 and 2016, operation of the K West pump and treat system, located near the former 105K West plutonium production reactor, reduced concentrations below the groundwater remediation target for hexavalent chromium. In 2016, a rebound study was performed to evaluate the effectiveness of the pump and treat remedy and assess the potential for any residual hexavalent chromium sources continuing to contribute to groundwater contamination. As a result of the rebound study, a source of continued groundwater contamination was identified. To address this condition, a soil flushing treatability test was written and approved by the U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The test included saturating about a 1-acre area of soil with treated water with the goal of forcing the residual hexavalent chromium to groundwater where existing extraction wells could remove it for treatment, accelerating the cleanup process. In spring and summer 2019, CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation Company installed and began operating a shallow underground leach system to support the treatability test. Preliminary sampling data show the test was effective in removing the residual contamination. Following further evaluation and analysis from the initial test, the process will be considered for implementation elsewhere on the Hanford Site, particularly at locations where there is a known or suspected continuing contamination source in the soil column. The paper will cover the goals of the study, as well as more details about the following: - Overview of pump and treat exit strategy (using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency guidance); - The design and installation of the soil flushing technology in the 100-K Area; - The testing process and results of sampling data; - Post-study evaluation and potential for implementation in other locations at the Hanford Site. Innovative solutions for cleanup, such as the soil flushing technology, have resulted in substantial progress in the removal of groundwater contaminants at the Hanford Site, potentially shortening the time frame required to meet cleanup goals and resulting in significant cost savings. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Recipes for a Successful Exit for Clean- and Hard-tech Startups

This study demonstrates the combinations of multiple causal factors that formulate a startup’s strategy to successfully “exit”, namely “recipes for a successful exit,” in the clean- and hard-tech sector. We identify seven key causal factors (i.e., causal conditions) that impact startup success, including commercial readiness, investor interactions, favorable industry, non-financial support, straightforward development path, experienced team, and visibility to investors. We also investigate the combinations of selective causal conditions that can provide further synergetic impact. We conduct the fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) on seven US clean and hard-tech startups that exited between 2005 and 2016. The successful companies all demonstrate distinctive characteristics based on three general categories (1) robust ecosystem; (2) heavy-lifting team; or (3) external opportunity. Across these three categories, commercial readiness and strong investor interactions are necessary conditions for all exit cases. But there are important differences that drive success in each category, such as the interaction with non-financial support (in the robust ecosystem case), experienced team (in the heavy-lifting team case), and favorable industry (in the external opportunity case). Furthermore, our findings are meant to support entrepreneurs in reaching an exit by optimizing the given internal and external circumstances, and policymakers to build a robust ecosystem that can increase the success rate of the clean- and hardtech development.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Evaluation of Minimum NOx Emission From Ammonia Combustion

Abstract Ammonia (NH3) is being explored as a hydrogen carrier with no carbon emissions. However, if burned directly as NH3, rather than being completely decomposed back to N2/H2, the fuel-bound nitrogen comes with a potentially significant NOx emissions penalty. Indeed, several existing studies are showing ammonia combustion NOx emissions that exceed current natural gas fueled, DLN technologies by one to two orders of magnitude. Therefore, it is important to establish the theoretical minimum NOx emissions for an ammonia combustor, to determine how much NOx levels can be reduced via further technology development. In other words, the purpose of this work is not to analyze the performance of a specific combustor but, rather, the fundamental limits of what is achievable. This study quantifies this minimum NOx level for a two-stage combustor system for a given combustor exit temperature and residence time, with a constraint on unburned fuel levels. As expected, the optimum configuration is a rich front end combustor to burn and crack ammonia with significant H2 production, followed by an NO relaxation reactor, followed by a lean stage that consumes the remaining H2. The optimum residence time and stoichiometry of each zone are determined in the fast mixing limit, which essentially balances between NOx production in the primary and secondary zones. These results show minimum NOx levels are in 200–400 ppm range at 1 bar, but drop to levels of ∼25 ppm at 20 bar. These NOx emissions are dominated by NOx production in the primary stage which relaxes to equilibrium levels quite slowly. As processes controlling NOx relaxation to equilibrium in the primary stage dominate overall NO emission levels, combustor NOx sensitivities are essentially opposite that of natural gas fired, DLN systems. Specifically, NOx values drop with increased combustor residence time, increased pressure, and increased combustor exit temperature. These results also suggest that the most important strategy for NOx minimization is to provide sufficient relaxation time after the primary zone for NOx to approach equilibrium—this can be done via kinetic means to accelerate this relaxation rate, such as enhancing pressure or temperature, or increasing residence times. Indeed, this work shows that low pressure combustors specifically optimized for ammonia will have residence times that are one to two orders of magnitude larger than current natural gas systems. By doing so, NOx levels below 10 ppm may be achievable. Finally, we discuss the sensitivity of these values to uncertainties in ammonia kinetics.

Engineering↗

Criteria for Grid-Forming Inverters Transitioning Between Current Limiting Mode and Normal Operation

Here, this letter focuses on the fault recovery analysis of inverters using multi-loop droop based grid-forming control, taking into account different current limiting strategies. A criterion is proposed to determine when the inverter can exit the current limiting mode after fault clearance. The theoretical findings are verified through electromagnetic transient simulations using the direct (d)-axis priority-based current limiting method, circular current limiting method, and virtual impedance method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Achieving superior carbon transfer efficiency and pH control using membrane carbonation with a wide range of CO 2 contents for the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi

The economic viability of microalgal-derived products relies on rapid CO 2 transfer in a cost-effective manner. Many industrial gas streams contain concentrated CO 2 that, if converted to useful products, would lower greenhouse gas emissions and valorize the wasted CO 2 . Membrane carbonation (MC) uses non-porous hollow-fiber gas-transfer membranes to deliver CO 2 without bubble formation, which makes it possible to achieve a high carbon-transfer efficiency (CTE). However, inert gasses in the industrial streams (e.g., N 2 , O 2 , and H 2 O) can significantly lower the CO 2 -delivery rate. The means to overcome the buildup of inert gases in the membrane lumen is to manage the distal end of the membranes to sweep out inert gases while not wasting significant CO 2 . A MC-venting strategy was evaluated for CO 2 inputs from 5% to 100%. Abiotic tests using a restricted exit flow could achieve >95% CTE abiotic for industrial CO 2 streams. When integrated with semi-continuous cultivation of a marine coccolithophore, Emiliania huxleyi , CO 2 delivery and venting were on-demand based on a pH set points and pH-actuated feed and venting valves. MC using the venting strategy achieved 100% CTE biotic when delivering 100% and 50% CO 2 , which was better than 50% CTE biotic obtained from pH-controlled sparging of 100% CO 2 -sparging. E. huxleyi consistently fixed ~80% of the delivered CO 2 into biomass, and the remaining ~20% to calcite coccoliths. Finally, the compact size of MC modules, stable pH control, and no shear forces from bubble agitation during the CO 2 delivery made MC an ideal match for cultivation of coccolithophores, which are sensitive to shear forces and pH fluctuations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrated Experimental and Computational K-Edge X-ray Absorption Near-Edge Structure Analysis of Vanadium Catalysts

X-ray Absorption Near-Edge Structure (XANES) spectroscopy is a powerful tool to reveal key structural and electronic features of isolated catalytic sites, yet insights into molecular structure and more detailed orbital analysis through a combination of experimental and computed XANES analysis are necessary for accurate interpretation of the spectra, especially when significant heterogeneity exits among the catalytic sites. Herein, we present an integrated computational and experimental strategy to determine both primary and secondary bonding interactions within the XANES pre-edge region for organovanadium complexes, which was developed using a series of well-defined molecular vanadium complexes and then applied to the characterization of a supported organovanadium olefin hydrogenation catalyst. Time-dependent density functional theory is used to predict the energy of pre-edge XANES features for a series of vanadium complexes with a variety of oxidation states and local coordination environments. Further, a calibration scheme incorporating different density functionals and basis sets is established, resulting in an optimized scheme that accurately predicts pre-edge energies with a mean absolute error of 0.40 eV. Second-shell coordination (e.g., V---V) effects within XANES are identified through the analysis of the computed dominant orbital contributions for multi-vanadium complexes. Orbital analysis also provided confirmation that the vanadium-hydride formation combined with the heterogeneity of the catalytic active species in ole-fin hydrogenation caused the energy shift and broadening of the pre-edge peak after hydrogen treatment of the silica-supported organovanadium pre-catalyst. This work further elucidates computational XANES simulations and techniques potentially guiding characterization in surface organometallic chemistry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Space Charge Dominated Momentum Spread and Compensation Strategies in the Post-Linac Section of Proton Improvement Plan-II at Fermilab

The upcoming Proton Improvement Plan-II (PIP-II), designated for enhancements to the Fermilab accelerator complex, features a Beam Transfer Line (BTL) that channels the beam from the linac exit to the booster. In the absence of longitudinal focusing beyond the superconducting linac, the beam experiences an elevated momentum spread, primarily due to nonlinear space-charge forces, surpassing the allowable limit of 2.1e-4. This study presents a detailed examination of the space-charge-induced momentum spread and outlines mitigative strategies. The investigation includes the fine-tuning of a de-buncher cavity, analyzed in terms of operating frequency, longitudinal location, and gap voltage, under both standard and perturbed beam conditions—specifically accounting for momentum jitter and energy variation. The impact of buncher cavity misalignments on the beam's longitudinal phase space is also assessed. The paper concludes by recommending an optimized cavity configuration to effectively mitigate the observed increase in momentum spread along the BTL.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Hybrid Fuel Cell Systems for Heavy-Duty Trucks: Configuration, Heat Rejection, and Performance

Low-temperature polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell systems can achieve higher efficiency than diesel engines, but heat rejection remains a major challenge in class-8 heavy-duty fuel cell trucks. For the same rated power, the radiator heat load is greater than that in a diesel engine, while the allowable operating temperatures are lower. This work proposes and evaluates 400 kWe fuel cell–battery hybrid (FCH) platforms and operating strategies that manage heat rejection without enlarging the radiator frontal area. Three FCH platforms are identified, each varying in fuel cell system (FCS) rated power, battery energy storage system (ESS) capacity, and maximum stack coolant exit temperature (T h1 ). All three satisfy key system and vehicle requirements, including 175 kWe FCS power at top sustained speed, 400 kWe FCH power on a 6% grade climb, a target stack power density (PD) of 750 mW e /cm 2 , and heat rejection constraints. The first FCH has the smallest FCS, the largest ESS, and a T h1 of 90 °C. The second achieves the highest PD of 840 mW e /cm 2 at a T h1 of 95 °C. The third has the largest FCS, the smallest ESS, and a T h1 of 102 °C. At a Th1 of 115 °C, the platform can be configured as a stand-alone 400 kWe(net) FCS without hybridization, but the achievable PD drops to 460 mW e /cm 2 .

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

MACHINE LEARNING-ENABLED PREDICTION OF TRANSIENT INJECTION MAP IN AUTOMOTIVE INJECTORS WITH UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION

Accurate prediction of injection profiles is a critical aspect of linking injector operation with engine performance and emissions. However, highly resolved injector simulations can take one to two weeks of wall-clock time, which is incompatible with engine design cycles with desired turnaround times of less than a day. Hence, it is important to reduce the time-to-solution of the internal flow simulations by several orders of magnitude to make it compatible with engine simulations. This work demonstrates a data-driven approach for tackling the computational overhead of injector simulations, whereby the transient injection profiles are emulated for a side-oriented, single-hole diesel injector using a Bayesian machine-learning framework. First, an interpretable Bayesian learning strategy was employed to understand the effect of design parameters on the total void fraction field. Then, autoencoders are utilized for efficient dimensionality reduction of the flowfields. Gaussian process models are finally used to predict the spatiotemporal void fraction field at the injector exit for unknown operating conditions. The Gaussian process models produce principled uncertainty estimates associated with the emulated flowfields, which provide the engine designer with valuable information of where the data-driven predictions can be trusted in the design space. The Bayesian flowfield predictions are compared with the corresponding predictions from a deep neural network, which has been transfer-learned from static needle simulations from a previous work by the authors. The emulation framework can predict the void fraction field at the exit of the orifice within a few seconds, thus achieving a speed-up factor of up to 38 x 10(6) over the traditional simulation-based approach of generating transient injection maps.

machine learning↗

X-ray FEL linear accelerator design via start-to-end global optimization

An X-ray Free Electron Laser (FEL) prefers using an electron beam with low emittance, small energy spread, and a high core current to generate coherent radiation through an undulator. In order to attain such a high brightness beam, the linear accelerator beam dynamics design generally involves separate photoinjector optimization and linac optimization. In this paper, we propose a new beam dynamics design strategy based on global optimization with fast start-to-end simulations from the photocathode to the end of the accelerator. The new start-to-end model significantly reduces the simulation time and makes the global optimization practical. The global optimization method avoids the need to choose a single solution based on bunch length at the injector exit for the linac optimization and helps find the solution with unfavorable bunch length at the injector exit but better phase space distribution that can result in better final electron beam phase space distribution at the entrance of the undulator. Here, using the start-to-end global optimization, we showed in an application example, with a 100 pC beam that good transverse emittance and over kilo-Ampere final core current can be attained using a photoinjector that consists of a VHF gun and boosting RF cavities.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Integration of ecosystem science into radioecology: A consensus perspective

In the Fall of 2016 a workshop was held which brought together over 50 scientists from the ecological and radiological fields to discuss feasibility and challenges of reintegrating ecosystem science into radioecology. There is a growing desire to incorporate attributes of ecosystem science into radiological risk assessment and radioecological research more generally, fueled by recent advances in quantification of emergent ecosystem attributes and the desire to accurately reflect impacts of radiological stressors upon ecosystem function. This work is a synthesis of the discussions and consensus of the workshop participant's responses to three primary questions, which were: 1) How can ecosystem science support radiological risk assessment? 2) What ecosystem level endpoints potentially could be used for radiological risk assessment? and 3) What inference strategies and associated methods would be most appropriate to assess the effects of radionuclides on ecosystem structure and function? The consensus of the participants was that ecosystem science can and should support radiological risk assessment through the incorporation of quantitative metrics that reflect ecosystem functions which are sensitive to radiological contaminants. The participants also agreed that many such endpoints exit or are thought to exit and while many are used in ecological risk assessment currently, additional data need to be collected that link the causal mechanisms of radiological exposure to these endpoints. Finally, the participants agreed that radiological risk assessments must be designed and informed by rigorous statistical frameworks capable of revealing the causal inference tying radiological exposure to the endpoints selected for measurement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ground Motion Models (GMMs) Improvements Using Earthquake Simulations on High Performance Computers

A computationally efficient simulation platform was developed that can provide representative synthetic ground motions from crustal earthquakes in the Stable Continental Regions of Central and Eastern US (CEUS), using 3D modeling and high-performance computing. The main objective was to use synthetic ground motion to provide constrains to refinements of exiting ergodic Ground Motion Models (GMMs), for large magnitude earthquakes and near-fault distances, for which these models are less reliable. Physics-based broadband (0-5Hz) ground motion simulations were used to estimate the near-fault ground motion amplitudes and within event and between-event variabilities associated with fault rupture characteristics. As part of a strategy for selecting a reginal velocity model and validation of developed rupture modeling technique, ground motions from the moment magnitude Mw5.0 November 7, 2016, Cushing Oklahoma, and Mw5.8 September 3, 2016, Pawnee Oklahoma earthquakes were simulated. In our simulations we used a 3D regional velocity model that was based on Saikia’s 1D velocity model. Saikia’s model demonstrated better performance in modelling high frequency regional wave propagation for CEUS region. The proposed 3D model includes lateral variations added to the 1D background model using the stochastic scheme of Pitarka and Mellors. Comparisons of the simulations with recordings of both earthquakes demonstrated the reliability of our deterministic simulation approach while emphasizing the importance of including small-scale variability in the regional velocity model needed to reproduce the observed high-frequency wave scattering effects. As part of validation analysis, comparisons with different GMMs for a Mw6.5 earthquake in the CESUS region resulted in a very good match between the simulated and empirical ground motion models. Initial investigations of within-event and between-event ground motion variabilities for Mw6.5 scenario earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, suggest that they are strongly related to spatial slip and slip rate variations, average rupture velocity, rupture area and rupture initiation location. For certain scenarios we found that the ground motion variability observed at near-fault distances (< 5 km) also persists at longer distances. Regardless of the rupture scenario, the simulated ground motion tends to fully saturate at short distances and for all periods. The near-fault saturation has to do with the attenuation of waves propagating along the fault and local rupture radiation pattern that also contribute to stronger ground motion variation at such distances. Analysis of effects of rupture initiation location suggest that the peak ground motion (PGV) and spectral acceleration (SA) can be quite variable due to rupture directivity effects. Such effects are stronger at periods longer than 1s. The effect of the 1D velocity models and surface topography on simulated ground motion were investigated by comparing three component synthetic seismograms computed at selected sites. Effect of surface topography was considered using the ratio between spectral accelerations simulated for two 1D models with flat surface topography and realistic model with surface topography. Overall, the topography slightly amplifies (by ~30%) the ground motion amplitude in the frequency range 1-3Hz. The effect of topography is more visible in the surface and coda waves portion of the seismograms.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Selective inhibition of human translation termination by a drug-like compound

Methods to directly inhibit gene expression using small molecules hold promise for the development of new therapeutics targeting proteins that have evaded previous attempts at drug discovery. Among these, small molecules including the drug-like compound PF-06446846 (PF846) selectively inhibit the synthesis of specific proteins, by stalling translation elongation. These molecules also inhibit translation termination by an unknown mechanism. Using cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) and biochemical approaches, we show that PF846 inhibits translation termination by arresting the nascent chain (NC) in the ribosome exit tunnel. The arrested NC adopts a compact α-helical conformation that induces 28 S rRNA nucleotide rearrangements that suppress the peptidyl transferase center (PTC) catalytic activity stimulated by eukaryotic release factor 1 (eRF1). These data support a mechanism of action for a small molecule targeting translation that suppresses peptidyl-tRNA hydrolysis promoted by eRF1, revealing principles of eukaryotic translation termination and laying the foundation for new therapeutic strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗