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Optimal Experimental Design With Fast Neural Network Surrogate Models

Designing optimal experiments minimizes the uncertainty of results and maximizes the efficient use of resources. Herein, machine learning surrogate models and the approximate coordinate exchange (ACE) algorithm are used to determine optimum experimental designs over large or arbitrarily restrictive design spaces. Optimal experimental design is particularly salient in materials science where experiments are expensive and material properties must often be inferred indirectly. The proposed framework is demonstrated by finding optimal experiments with which the hidden constituent properties of composite materials can be most efficiently inferred from observable experimental outcomes. The optimum experimental design is given by an information-theoretic criteria, which maximizes the conditional mutual information between the hidden properties and the expected experimental outcomes. To perform tractable optimization a neural network is trained as a surrogate model to mimic a physics based simulation, which can calculate the expected experimental outcome based on a candidate experimental design and sampled constituent properties. The ACE algorithm is used to optimize over large design spaces with many tests and controlled parameters where an exhaustive search would be intractable even with the surrogate model. Using this approach, optimal experimental designs that are consistent with those produced by heuristic knowledge and established best practices are found; then optimal designs in larger design spaces where heuristic knowledge is unavailable are examined.

machine learning

Comparison of the experimental aerodynamic characteristics of theoretically and experimentally designed supercritical airfoils

A lifting airfoil theoretically designed for shockless supercritical flow utilizing a complex hodograph method has been evaluated in the Langley 8-foot transonic pressure tunnel at design and off-design conditions. The experimental results are presented and compared with those of an experimentally designed supercritical airfoil which were obtained in the same tunnel.

Harris, C. D.

Taguchi method of experimental design in materials education

Some of the advantages and disadvantages of the Taguchi Method of experimental design as applied to Materials Science will be discussed. This is a fractional factorial method that employs the minimum number of experimental trials for the information obtained. The analysis is also very simple to use and teach, which is quite advantageous in the classroom. In addition, the Taguchi loss function can be easily incorporated to emphasize that improvements in reproducibility are often at least as important as optimization of the response. The disadvantages of the Taguchi Method include the fact that factor interactions are normally not accounted for, there are zero degrees of freedom if all of the possible factors are used, and randomization is normally not used to prevent environmental biasing. In spite of these disadvantages it is felt that the Taguchi Method is extremely useful for both teaching experimental design and as a research tool, as will be shown with a number of brief examples.

Weiser, Martin W.

Experimental Design for the LATOR Mission

This paper discusses experimental design for the Laser Astrometric Test Of Relativity (LATOR) mission. LATOR is designed to reach unprecedented accuracy of 1 part in 10(exp 8) in measuring the curvature of the solar gravitational field as given by the value of the key Eddington post-Newtonian parameter gamma. This mission will demonstrate the accuracy needed to measure effects of the next post-Newtonian order (near infinity G2) of light deflection resulting from gravity s intrinsic non-linearity. LATOR will provide the first precise measurement of the solar quadrupole moment parameter, J(sub 2), and will improve determination of a variety of relativistic effects including Lense-Thirring precession. The mission will benefit from the recent progress in the optical communication technologies the immediate and natural step above the standard radio-metric techniques. The key element of LATOR is a geometric redundancy provided by the laser ranging and long-baseline optical interferometry. We discuss the mission and optical designs, as well as the expected performance of this proposed mission. LATOR will lead to very robust advances in the tests of Fundamental physics: this mission could discover a violation or extension of general relativity, or reveal the presence of an additional long range interaction in the physical law. There are no analogs to the LATOR experiment; it is unique and is a natural culmination of solar system gravity experiments.

Turyshev, Slava G.

Experimental design for the LATOR mission

This paper discusses experimental design for the Laser Astrometric Test Of Relativity (LATOR) mission. LATOR is designed to reach unprecedented accuracy of 1 part in 108 in measuring the curvature of the solar gravitational field as given by the value of the key Eddington post-Newtonian parameter γ. This mission will demonstrate the accuracy needed to measure effects of the next post- Newtonian order (∝ G2) of light deflection resulting from gravity’s intrinsic non-linearity.

Nordtvedt, Kenneth Jr.

Developing Rationale for Experimental Designs Employed During Forthcoming NASA Quesst Mission Community Noise Campaigns

Since the publication of R.A. Fisher’s “The Arrangement of Field Experiments” in 1926, the enumerated principles that contributed to the improvement of agricultural field experiments in the early 20th century (randomization, replication, blocking, and appropriate variation of factors) remain hallmarks of all well-designed clinical trials and scientific endeavors in the 21st century. Beginning in 2026, NASA will conduct community noise campaigns with the first-of-kind X-59 experimental aircraft to 1) demonstrate the possibility of quiet supersonic flight over land and 2) to collect live data about annoyance (a categorical response) in relation to estimated noise levels (an experimental factor) produced by the new noise phenomenon, a low-noise “sonic thump”. The resulting predicted relationship between perceptual response and estimated noise level, e.g., mixed logistic regression or related models in the class of generalized linear (mixed) models, is believed to be a useful policy tool that domestic and international regulators can use when deciding whether existing prohibitions of supersonic flight over land can be replaced with a noise-based limit. The X-59 is engineered with the expectation that annoyance in the tested ranges should be a rare outcome, and, consequently, NASA convened an interdisciplinary team to examine and refine the rationale underlying the experimental design for future community campaigns. In this presentation, we review relevant literature on experiments with rare binary outcomes, relate the deliberations of the NASA team to tenets of good experimental design, and highlight several challenges and operational realities of this ambitious campaign.

Design of Experiments; blocking; randomization; co

Pliocene Model Intercomparison (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, and their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP operates under the umbrella of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), which examines multiple intervals in Earth history, the consistency of model predictions in simulating these intervals and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved in geological climate archives. This paper provides a thorough model intercomparison project description, and documents the experimental design in a detailed way. Specifically, this paper describes the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for the experiments in Phase 2 of PlioMIP.

climate change

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): Experimental Design and Boundary Conditions (Experiment 2)

The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere only climate models. The second (Experiment 2) utilizes fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Following on from the publication of the experimental design and boundary conditions for Experiment 1 in Geoscientific Model Development, this paper provides the necessary description of differences and/or additions to the experimental design for Experiment 2.

Haywood, A. M.

The DeepMIP Contribution to PMIP4: Experimental Design for Model Simulations of the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM (version 1.0)

Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high ( greater than 800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene (approximately 50 Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4(times) CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP - the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.

climate models

High Strain Rate Response of Adhesively Bonded Fiber-Reinforced Composite Joints – A Computational Study to Guide Experimental Design

Adhesively bonded carbon fiber-reinforced epoxy composite laminates are widely used in aerospace applications. During a high energy impact event, these laminates are often subjected to high strain rate loading. However, the influence of high strain rate loading on the response of these composite joints is not well understood. Computational finite element (FE) modeling and simulations are conducted to guide the design of high strain rate experiments. Two different experimental designs based on split Hopkinson bar were numerically modeled to simulate Mode I and Mode II types loading in the composite. In addition, the computational approach adopted in this study helps in understanding the high strain rate response of adhesively bonded composite joints subjected to nominally Mode I and Mode II loading. The modeling approach consists of a ply-level 3D FE model, a progressive damage constitutive model for the composite material behavior and a cohesive tie-break contact element for interlaminar delamination.

Ravindran, Suraj

Using experimental design modules for process characterization in manufacturing/materials processes laboratories

Modules dealing with statistical experimental design (SED), process modeling and improvement, and response surface methods have been developed and tested in two laboratory courses. One course was a manufacturing processes course in Mechanical Engineering and the other course was a materials processing course in Materials Science and Engineering. Each module is used as an 'experiment' in the course with the intent that subsequent course experiments will use SED methods for analysis and interpretation of data. Evaluation of the modules' effectiveness has been done by both survey questionnaires and inclusion of the module methodology in course examination questions. Results of the evaluation have been very positive. Those evaluation results and details of the modules' content and implementation are presented. The modules represent an important component for updating laboratory instruction and to provide training in quality for improved engineering practice.

Ankenman, Bruce

Experimental Design and Preliminary Analysis of a Mars CO2 Rapid Cycle Adsorption Pump

Temperature-swing adsorption pumps have been proposed as a method of acquiring and compressing Martian atmospheric CO2 for downstream processing. Most industrial applications and previous research targeted at space in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) utilize long (~hours) temperature swing periods, typically limited by the ability to transfer heat from a naturally insulating sorbent bed. A rapid cycle adsorption pump (RCAP) would reduce these periods to minutes, in the hope of increasing overall throughput. This paper details the design and preliminary experimental results from testing an RCAP in a simulated Martian environment. The test configuration features a central, liquid-cooled and heated heat transfer plate surrounded by symmetrical rectangular sorbent beds. Various bed thicknesses and commercially available Zeolite 13X sorbent particle sizes are evaluated to both determine performance and provide data for a parallel modeling effort. Discussions of multi-stage configurations and methods of boosting bed conductivity are included.

Rapid Cycle Adsorption

Analysis of a Split-Plot Experimental Design Applied to a Low-Speed Wind Tunnel Investigation

A procedure to analyze a split-plot experimental design featuring two input factors, two levels of randomization, and two error structures in a low-speed wind tunnel investigation of a small-scale model of a fighter airplane configuration is described in this report. Standard commercially-available statistical software was used to analyze the test results obtained in a randomization-restricted environment often encountered in wind tunnel testing. The input factors were differential horizontal stabilizer incidence and the angle of attack. The response variables were the aerodynamic coefficients of lift, drag, and pitching moment. Using split-plot terminology, the whole plot, or difficult-to-change, factor was the differential horizontal stabilizer incidence, and the subplot, or easy-to-change, factor was the angle of attack. The whole plot and subplot factors were both tested at three levels. Degrees of freedom for the whole plot error were provided by replication in the form of three blocks, or replicates, which were intended to simulate three consecutive days of wind tunnel facility operation. The analysis was conducted in three stages, which yielded the estimated mean squares, multiple regression function coefficients, and corresponding tests of significance for all individual terms at the whole plot and subplot levels for the three aerodynamic response variables. The estimated regression functions included main effects and two-factor interaction for the lift coefficient, main effects, two-factor interaction, and quadratic effects for the drag coefficient, and only main effects for the pitching moment coefficient.

Erickson, Gary E.

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PlioMIP3) – Science Plan and Experimental Design

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) was initiated in 2008. Over two phases PlioMIP has helped co-ordinate the experimental design and publication strategy of the community, which has included an increasing number of climate models and modelling groups from around the world. It has engaged with palaeoenvironmental scientists to foster new data synthesis supporting the construction of new model boundary conditions, as well as to facilitate new data-model comparisons. The work has advanced our understanding of Pliocene climates and environments, enhanced our knowledge regarding the ability of complex climate and Earth System models to accurately simulate climate change, and helped to refine our estimates of how sensitive the climate system is to forcing conditions. In this community protocol paper, we outline the scientific plan for PlioMIP Phase 3 (PlioMIP3). This plan provides the required guidance to participating modelling groups from around the world to successfully set up and perform PlioMIP3 climate model experiments. The project is open to new participants from the scientific community (both from the climate modelling and geosciences communities). In PlioMIP3, we retain the PlioMIP2 Core experiments (Eoi 400 , E 280 ) and extend the Core requirements to include either an experiment focussed on the Early Pliocene or an alternative Late Pliocene simulation (or both). These additions (a) allow a comparison of Early and Late Pliocene warm intervals and help build research connections and synergy with the MioMIP (Miocene Model Intercomparison Project - also known as DeepMIP-Miocene) and PlioMioVAR projects (Pliocene-Miocene Variability Working Group), and (b) create an alternative time slice simulation for 3.205 Ma (MIS KM5c) through removal of some of the largest palaeogeographic differences introduced between PlioMIP1 and 2 resulting in minimal land-sea mask variations from the modern. In addition, we present ten optional experiments designed to enhance our assessment of climate sensitivity and to explore the uncertainty in greenhouse gas-related forcing. For the first time, we introduce orbital sensitivity experiments into the science plan, as well as simulations incorporating dynamic vegetation-climate feedbacks and an experiment designed to examine the potential significance of East Antarctic Ice Sheet boundary condition uncertainty. These changes enhance palaeo-to-future scientific connections and enable an exploration of the significance of palaeogeographic uncertainties on climate simulations.

Climate modelling