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At least 19 records

Predictive Fallout Composition Modeling: Improvements and Applications of the Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code

This paper outlines several improvements to the Particle Activity Module of the Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code (DELFIC). The modeling of each phase of the fallout process is discussed within DELFIC to demonstrate the capabilities and limitations with the code for modeling and simulation. Expansion of the DELFIC isotopic library to include actinides and light elements is shown. Several key features of the new library are demonstrated, including compliance with ENDF/B-VII standards, augmentation of hardwired activated soil and actinide decay calculations with exact Bateman calculations, and full physical and chemical fractionation of all material inventories. Improvements to the radionuclide source term are demonstrated, including the ability to specify heterogeneous fission types and the ability to import source terms from irradiation calculations using the Oak Ridge Isotope Generation (ORIGEN) code. Additionally, the dose, kerma, and effective dose conversion factors are revised. Finally, the application of DELFIC for consequence management planning and forensic analysis is presented. For consequence management, DELFIC is shown to provide disaster recovery teams with simulations of real-time events, including the location, composition, time of arrival, activity rates, and dose rates of fallout, accounting for site-specific atmospheric effects. The results from DELFIC are also demonstrated for use by nuclear forensics teams to plan collection routes (including the determination of optimal collection locations), estimate dose rates to collectors, and anticipate the composition of material at collection sites. These capabilities give mission planners the ability to maximize their effectiveness in the field while minimizing risk to their collectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing major and trace element compositions in fallout melt glass from a near-surface nuclear test

We report the chemical and isotopic compositions of fallout melt glasses from nuclear tests contain a range of information constraining the physical conditions within the fireball and the mechanisms of fallout formation but historic studies tended to exclude the behavior of stable major and trace elements. Here, we present a large study specifically focused on major and trace element relationships within a population of macroscale fallout samples from a single event. We interpret these data to better constrain how fallout melt glass formation in near surface environments is influenced by that environment and demonstrate how major and trace element abundances can provide useful insights into chemical processes within the fireball. Data confirm that the uranium in the fallout glass population derives from two isotopically distinct endmembers: isotopically enriched uranium (presumably from the weapon), and natural composition uranium that may be a combination of anthropogenic and environmental materials from within the blast zone. The similarity between major and trace element concentrations in fallout and corresponding local soils from the event site confirm the local soils as the most probable source of entrained material into the fireball and the source of carrier material into which the bomb vapor was incorporated. The lack of correlation between major and trace element abundances with size indicates that volatility driven processes, such as condensation from the fireball, do not control the composition of macroscale fallout melt glass. Although the fallout has major and trace element chemical characteristics broadly similar to those of the local, associated soils, some systematic differences are observed between the two populations. Fallout melt glass is depleted in volatile elements such as K, Na, Tl and Pb, consistent with heating to temperatures above ~1000 °C for 3-10 s. This is supported by the results of laser heating experiments performed on rhyolitic soil at temperatures (1600-2200 °C) and timescales (1-120 s) that are broadly relevant to fallout formation conditions. Relative enrichments of metals such as Cu and Co do not correlate with the abundance of uranium, suggesting that fallout also records input of near field anthropogenic materials. Our observations suggest that major chemical features can be related to processing in the fireball and used to inform the thermal-chemical evolution of the system. Ultimately, these data are consistent with a fallout formation mechanism that involves rapid melting of surface materials to form carrier material melts with minor incorporation of bomb vapor and a degree of volumetric volatile loss due to heating.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dose Coefficients for Internal Dose Assessments for Exposure to Radioactive Fallout

This paper presents values as well as the bases for calculating internal dose coefficients suitable for estimating organ doses from the exposure to radioactive fallout that could result from the detonation of a nuclear fission device. The 34 radionuclides discussed are the same as those given in a priority list of radionuclides for fallout dose assessments presented in a companion overview paper. The radionuclides discussed are those that are believed to account for a preponderance of the organ doses that might be received by intake by persons of all ages (including in utero and via breast feeding for infants) following exposure to radioactive fallout. The presented dose coefficients for ingestion account for age and include modifications for variations in solubility with distance as discussed previously in the literature, and those for inhalation similarly account for age, solubility, and particle sizes that would be relevant at various distances of exposure as discussed in a companion paper on ingestion dose methods. The proposed modifications peculiar to radioactive fallout account for systematic changes in solubility and particle sizes with distance from the site of detonation, termed here as the region of “local fallout” and the region “beyond local fallout.” Brief definitions of these regions are provided here with more detailed discussion in a companion paper on estimating deposition of fallout radionuclides. This paper provides the dose coefficients for ingestion and inhalation (for particle sizes of 1 μm, 5 μm, 10 μm, and 20 μm) for the region “local fallout.” These dose coefficients for “local fallout” are specific for particles formed in a nuclear explosion that can be large and have radionuclides, particularly the more refractory ones, distributed throughout the volume where the radionuclide has reduced solubility. The dose coefficients for the region “beyond local fallout” are assumed to be the ones published by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) in 1995. Comparisons of the presented dose coefficients are made with values published by the ICRP.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Chemical and structural characterization of particulate fallout isolated from air-filters

We report particulate nuclear fallout is the radioactive byproduct of a nuclear event formed by the mixture of proximate environmental materials with vaporized bomb debris. The fallout debris can be transported into the atmosphere during cloud rise, raining out locally and dispersing globally constituting a radiation hazard and contributing to the distribution of anthropogenic radionuclides in the environment. Questions remain on how entrainment of environmental material in the fireball affects fallout formation processes and radionuclide incorporation and distribution during cooling. To inform the characterization of fallout including the development of fallout size distributions and how radionuclides are incorporated into fallout debris where entrainment plays a role, we analyzed an archived historic US air-filter collected by aircraft in the aftermath of ground interacting nuclear tests. Particulate fallout collected on the filter was isolated and analyzed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and NanoSIMS (Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry) to determine chemistry, structure, morphology, and size of the particles. Results demonstrate that the particles isolated from the filter have spherical shape, display complex internal structures, and are mainly composed of Fe and Si oxides. In these spherical particles, Pu is preferentially associated with Fe-rich composition. The characterization of fallout particulate samples can provide information on nucleation and particle growth from the vapor phase to improve modeling and simulation of fallout hazards.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Phase Formation in Nuclear Fallout

An understanding of the physical and chemical process occurring in a nuclear explosion enables predictions of the effects of nuclear weapons, including characteristics of radioactive fallout resulting from the explosion. Near-surface nuclear explosions are of particular interest due to the potential for significant amounts of environmental material to interact with and alter the physical and chemical behavior of the fireball. Such interactions have the potential to affect the distribution of radioactive species in the fireball and subsequently become incorporated into fallout through a process known as radiochemical fractionation. Studying variations in fallout formed in different historical testing environments allows us to understand the influence of local environments on fallout formation processes. In particular, constraining variations in thermal evolution and redox conditions during the evolution of the fireball can be useful to understanding how sensitive fallout radiochemical fractionation may be to the local explosion environment. However, untangling these conditions in complex, multicomponent fallout is a challenge. Here we present one method of constraining and interpreting fallout formation conditions by relating computationally derived phase stability predictions to observations in historic fallout. Development of such approaches will help improve physics-based models of fallout formation and radiochemical fractionation in complex, near surface nuclear detonations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

User Guide for the Los Alamos National Laboratory Fallout Calculator (V.1.1)

The Los Alamos National Laboratory Fallout Calculator is a Java™ application that can calculate the dose from many nuclear detonations producing fallout. The fallout calculations are performed for one or multiple selected winds. The winds are from the years 2000 to 2010, for all 12 months, and for the 1 st , 10 th , and 20 th of each month. The winds are available from 0 meters to 50,000 meters altitude MSL. This Fallout Calculator performs ideal calculations. There is no terrain. The ground is perfectly flat at sea level. There is no rain that would cause radioactive hot spots. The wind is historical, not a current wind. Also, the wind is fixed in time. It does not vary over the 24 hours it takes the fallout to arrive on the ground. Therefore, this calculator is suitable for operational type studies. For instance, it can be used to calculate the relative difference in fallout patterns from different possible nuclear laydowns. It can be used to understand how frequently fallout would be likely to occur in a particular part of the US. It could be used to develop plans for how to protect the population from a nuclear attack. However, it should not be used to predict the dose in a city from an actual laydown, or to predict safe corridors for the population to use to egress from areas with high fallout.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Effects of Atmospheric Fallout on Lead Contamination of Wheat Tissues Based on Stable Isotope Ratios

In order to trace the source of Pb pollution in wheat, the contribution ratio of soil and atmospheric fallout source was quantified based on stable isotope ratios. Results showed that the average Pb content of soil was significantly lower than that of fallout, and Pb in the fallout had a higher weak acid fraction than soil. Pb in wheat had a distinct distribution in its tissues and the content of Pb in wheat roots was significantly higher than it in shoots. The {sup 206}Pb/{sup 207}Pb ratio of soil was significantly higher than that in atmospheric fallout (p < 0.05). According to a binary mixing model, the {sup 206}Pb/{sup 207}Pb ratio in wheat roots, leaves, and grains reflect 67%, 65%, and 90% of Pb content contributions from fallout, respectively. This results suggest that fallout Pb was absorbed by wheat leaves and transferred to other organs, and it is important to develop effective strategies to control fallout Pb risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Examining the effects of soil entrainment during nuclear cloud rise on fallout predictions using a multiscale atmospheric modeling framework

Current operational models for nuclear cloud rise over land were developed and validated using observations from shallow-buried or surface detonations, where lofted soil quickly mixed with fission products from the detonation. These models poorly predict fallout from elevated detonations near the fallout-free height of burst (FFHOB), where interactions with the ground are limited and the mixing of fission products and lofted soil is incomplete. Fallout-free is a misnomer at this HOB, as fallout was observed in these cases, but was below the levels of concern, especially off-grounds of the nuclear test site. To correctly characterize and model fallout from detonations near the FFHOB, models must be developed which can capture the stratified nature of the particle and activity-size distributions within the cloud. Previously, it was shown that the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can accurately simulate nuclear cloud rise for airbursts with little to no ground interactions (Arthur et al., 2021). That work is expanded here by (1) using a radiation-hydrodynamics code to improve the fireball initialization in WRF, (2) further developing an aerosol package from WRF-Chem to simulate lofted soil, and (3) combining the WRF cloud rise simulations with the operational models used at the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) for fallout modeling. Using this combination of codes, the Upshot-Knothole Grable detonation, which was just below the FFHOB, is simulated from seconds after detonation through cloud rise and fallout, and results are compared to historical test data. Here, the results show improved prediction of dose rate and highlight the need to correctly characterize the entrainment of material into the cloud and the subsequent mixing of fission products with entrained material.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Deposition of vaporized species onto glassy fallout from a near-surface nuclear test

In a near-surface nuclear explosion where the resultant fireball can interact with the surface, vaporized materials from the nuclear device can be incorporated into molten soil and other carrier materials from that surface. This mixed material becomes a source of glassy fallout upon quenching and is locally deposited. Fallout formation models have been proposed; however, the specific mechanisms and physical conditions by which soil and other carrier materials interact in the fireball, as well as the subsequent incorporation of device materials with carrier materials, are not well constrained. We observe a surface deposition layer preserved at interfaces where two aerodynamic fallout glasses agglomerated and fused, and characterized 11 such boundaries using spatial analyses to better understand the vaporization and condensation behavior of species in the fireball. Using nanoscale secondary ion mass spectrometry (NanoSIMS), we identify higher enrichments of uranium from the device ( 235 U/ 238 U ratio >7.5) in 8 of the interface layers. Major element analysis of the interfaces reveals the deposition layer to be enriched in Fe, Ca, Mg, Mn, and Na-bearing species and depleted in Ti and Al-bearing species. Most notably, the Fe and Ca-bearing species are enriched approximately 50% at the interface layer relative to the average concentrations measured within the fallout glasses, while Ti and Al-bearing species are depleted by approximately 20%. SiO 2 is found to be relatively invariable across the samples and interfaces (~3% standard deviation). The notable depletion of Al, a refractory oxide abundant in the soil, together with the enrichment of 235 U and Fe, suggests an anthropogenic source of the enriched species or an unexpected vaporization/condensation behavior. The presence of both refractory (e.g., Ca and U) and volatile (e.g., Na) species approximately co-located in most of the observed layers (within 1.5 μm) suggests a continuous condensation process may also be occurring. Lastly, these fallout formation processes deviate from historical models of fallout formation, and have not been previously recognized in the literature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

When the dust settles: stable xenon isotope constraints on the formation of nuclear fallout

Nuclear weapons represent one of the most immediate threats of mass destruction. In the event that a procured or developed nuclear weapon is detonated in a populated metropolitan area, timely and accurate nuclear forensic analysis and fallout modeling would be needed to support attribution efforts and hazard assessments. In this work, we demonstrate that fissiogenic xenon isotopes retained in radioactive fallout generated by a nuclear explosion provide unique constraints on (1) the timescale of fallout formation, (2) chemical fractionation that occurs when fission products and nuclear fuel are incorporated into fallout, and (3) the speciation of fission products in the fireball. Our data suggest that, in near surface nuclear tests, the presence of a significant quantity of metal in a device assembly, combined with a short time allowed for mixing with the ambient atmosphere (seconds), may prevent complete oxidation of fission products prior to their incorporation into fallout. Xenon isotopes thus provide a window into the chemical composition of the fireball in the seconds that follow a nuclear explosion, thereby improving our understanding of the physical and thermo-chemical conditions under which fallout forms.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Automating the Coupling of ORIGEN with GADRAS via the Fallout Analysis Tool for National Technical Nuclear Forensics

Nuclear forensic teams will be deployed to collect and evaluate fallout samples on the ground in the scenario of a low-yield nuclear detonation in a heavily populated area. Quick non-destructive methods of predicting the quality of the sample before it is analyzed in detail are essential for efficient post-event collections. In this work, the process of exporting Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code (DELFIC) results into Gamma Detector Response and Analysis Software (GADRAS) has been automated within the Fallout Analysis Tool. This coupling allows for the simulation of detector responses to fallout samples with varying degrees of fractionation. The degree to which the samples are fractionated depends on the location of the samples in the fallout field. In the following study, this phenomenon is examined, as its understanding is important to the investigation of debris distribution. The simulated detector spectra from GADRAS can be used to compare peak ratios of volatile-refractory isotope pairs in order to determine the degree of fractionation. Simulated fractionated fallout samples from DELFIC for a 10 kt, pure 235U fission surface burst were modeled for distances ranging to 256 km out from ground zero, and for times up to 1 week from detonation. The fractionation ratios, also known as r values, from isotope concentrations, photon lines and peak areas of four volatile-refractory pairs were calculated and compared. Fractionation prediction via the peak areas method was evaluated for each pair by comparing the results with the simulated radionuclide inventory.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Super‐Droplet Method to Simulate Lagrangian Microphysics of Nuclear Fallout in a Homogeneous Cloud

Abstract Nuclear detonations produce hazardous local and global particles or fallout. Predicting fallout size, chemical components, and location is necessary to inform officials and determine immediate guidance for the public. However, existing nuclear detonation fallout models prescribe the particle size distributions based on limited observations. In this work, we apply the super‐droplet method, which is a numerical modeling technique developed for cloud microphysics, to simulate size distributions of particles in a mushroom cloud formed post‐detonation of a nuclear device. We model fallout formation and evolution with homogeneous nucleation and condensation of a single species and a Monte Carlo coagulation algorithm. We verify the numerical methods representing coagulation and condensation processes against analytical test problems. Additionally, we explore several scenarios for the integral system mass and yield in equivalent kilotons (kt) of TNT (trinitrotoluene). The fallout size distribution median diameter d pg follows a scaling law based on the integral system mass m v 0 kg and yield Y kt: nm. We test the effect of cloud turbulence, enhanced nucleation and growth, and vapor volatility with a sensitivity study. The range in median diameter predictions for simulations of historical tests performed over the Pacific encompass the measurements of particles sampled from the cloud caps. Predicted median particle size ranges up to 217, 123, 86, and 35 nm for historical tests with yields of 0.2, 0.7, 2, and 10 Mt, respectively. This work can be expanded in many different directions to build a more predictive model for fallout formation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Building Protection Against External Ionizing Fallout Radiation

A nuclear explosion has the potential to injure or kill tens to hundreds of thousands of people through exposure to fallout (external gamma) radiation. Existing buildings can protect their occupants (reducing external radiation exposures) by placing material and distance between fallout particles and indoor individuals. This protection is not well captured in current fallout risk assessment models and so the US Department of Defense is implementing the Regional Shelter Analysis methodology to improve the ability of the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) model to account for building protection. This report supports the HPAC improvement effort by identifying a set of building attributes (next page) that, when collectively specified, are sufficient to calculate reasonably accurate, i.e., within a factor of 2, fallout shelter quality estimates for many individual buildings. The set of building attributes were determined by first identifying the key physics controlling building protection from fallout radiation and then assessing which building attributes are relevant to the identified physics. This approach was evaluated by developing a screening model (PFscreen) based on the identified physics and comparing the screening model results against the set of existing independent experimental, theoretical, and modeled building protection estimates. In the interests of transparency, we have developed a benchmark dataset containing (a) most of the relevant primary experimental data published by prior generations of fallout protection scientists as well as (b) the screening model results.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A geochemical approach to constraining the formation of glassy fallout debris from nuclear tests

Reprocessed earth material is a glassy nuclear fallout debris from near-surface nuclear tests. A geochemical approach to analysis of glassy fallout is uniquely suited to determine the means of reprocessing and shed light on the mechanisms of fallout formation. An improved understanding of fallout formation is of interest both for its potential to guide post-detonation nuclear forensic investigations and in the context of possible affinities between glassy debris and other glasses generated by high-energy natural events, such as meteorite impacts and lightning strikes. Our study presents a large major-element compositional dataset for glasses within aerodynamic fallout from the Trinity nuclear test (“trinitite”) and a geochemically based analysis of the glass compositional trends. Silica-rich and alkali-rich trinitite glasses show compositions and textures consistent with formation through melting of individual mineral grains—quartz and alkali feldspar, respectively—from the test-site sediment. Furthermore, the volumetrically dominant glass phase—called the CaMgFe glass—shows extreme major-element compositional variability. Compositional trends in the CaMgFe glass are most consistent with formation through volatility-controlled condensation from compositionally heterogeneous plasma. Radioactivity occurs only in CaMgFe glass, indicating that co-condensation of evaporated bulk ground material and trace device material was the main mechanism of radioisotope incorporation into trinitite. CaMgFe trinitite glasses overlap compositionally with basalts, rhyolites, fulgurites, tektites, and microtektites but display greater compositional diversity than all of these naturally formed glasses. Indeed, the most refractory CaMgFe glasses compositionally resemble early solar system condensates—specifically, CAIs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Diffusive mass transport in agglomerated glassy fallout from a near-surface nuclear test

Aerodynamically-shaped glassy fallout is formed when vapor phase constituents from the nuclear device are incorporated into molten carriers (i.e. fallout precursor materials derived from soil or other near-field environmental debris). The effects of speciation and diffusive transport of condensing constituents are not well defined in models of fallout formation. Previously we reported observations of diffuse micrometer scale layers enriched in Na, Fe, Ca, and 235 U, and depleted in Al and Ti, at the interfaces of agglomerated fallout objects. Here in this paper, we derive the timescales of uranium mass transport in such fallout as it cools from 2500 K to 1500 K by applying a 1-dimensional planar diffusion model to the observed 235 U/ 30 Si variation at the interfaces. By modeling the thermal transport between the fireball and the carrier materials, the time of mass transport is calculated to be <0.6 s, <1 s, <2 s, and <3.5 s for fireball yields of 0.1 kt, 1 kt, 10 kt, and 100 kt respectively. Based on the calculated times of mass transport, a maximum temperature of deposition of uranium onto the carrier material of ~2200 K is inferred (1σ uncertainty of ~200 K). We also determine that the occurrence of micrometer scale layers of material enriched in relatively volatile Na-species as well as more refractory Ca-species provides evidence for an oxygen-rich fireball based on the vapor pressure of the two species under oxidizing conditions. These results represent the first application of diffusion-based modeling to derive material transport, thermal environments, and oxidation-speciation in near-surface nuclear detonation environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Estimating Fallout Building Attributes from Architectural Features and Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Building Descriptions

A nuclear explosion has the potential to injure or kill tens to hundreds of thousands (or more) of people through exposure to fallout (external gamma) radiation. Existing buildings can protect their occupants (reducing fallout radiation exposures) by placing material and distance between fallout particles and individuals indoors. Prior efforts have determined an initial set of building attributes suitable to reasonably assess a given building’s protection against fallout radiation. The current work provides methods to determine the quantitative values for these attributes from (a) common architectural features and data and (b) buildings described using the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) taxonomy. These methods will be used to improve estimates of fallout protection for operational US Department of Defense (DoD) and US Department of Energy (DOE) consequence assessment models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dynamic Monitoring of Cleanroom Fallout Using an Air Particle Counter

The particle fallout limitations and periodic allocations for the James Webb Space Telescope are very stringent. Standard prediction methods are complicated by non-linearity and monitoring methods that are insufficiently responsive. A method for dynamically predicting the particle fallout in a cleanroom using air particle counter data was determined by numerical correlation. This method provides a simple linear correlation to both time and air quality, which can be monitored in real time. The summation of effects provides the program better understanding of the cleanliness and assists in the planning of future activities. Definition of fallout rates within a cleanroom during assembly and integration of contamination-sensitive hardware, such as the James Webb Space Telescope, is essential for budgeting purposes. Balancing the activity levels for assembly and test with the particle accumulation rate is paramount. The current approach to predicting particle fallout in a cleanroom assumes a constant air quality based on the rated class of a cleanroom, with adjustments for projected work or exposure times. Actual cleanroom class can also depend on the number of personnel present and the type of activities. A linear correlation of air quality and normalized particle fallout was determined numerically. An air particle counter (standard cleanroom equipment) can be used to monitor the air quality on a real-time basis and determine the "class" of the cleanroom (per FED-STD-209 or ISO-14644). The correlation function provides an area coverage coefficient per class-hour of exposure. The prediction of particle accumulations provides scheduling inputs for activity levels and cleanroom class requirements.

Perry, Radford↗

Plutonium segregation in glassy aerodynamic fallout from a nuclear weapon test

Our study combines electron microscopy equipped with energy dispersive spectroscopy to probe major element composition and autoradiography to map plutonium in order to examine the spatial relationships between plutonium and fallout composition in aerodynamic glassy fallout from a nuclear weapon test. We interrogated a sample set of 48 individual fallout specimens in order to reveal that the significant chemical heterogeneity of this sample set could be described compositionally with a relatively small number of compositional endmembers. Furthermore, high concentrations of plutonium were never associated with several endmember compositions and concentrated with the so-called mafic glass endmember. Our result suggests that it is the physical characteristics of the compositional endmembers and not the chemical characteristics of the individual component elements that govern the un-burnt plutonium distribution with respect to major element composition in fallout.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗