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The feasibility is discussed for alternative methods of direct Monte Carlo simulation for failure probability computations. First and second order reliability methods are used for fatigue crack growth and low cycle fatigue structural failure modes to illustrate typical problems.
Recent advances in computational fluid mechanics are discussed in reviews and reports. Sections are devoted to (1) the modeling of local phenomena and edge effects in solids, (2) stochastic modeling and simulation of fracture toughness, and (3) partitioning strategy and new finite elements. Particular attention is given to global and local finite-element/spectral-boundary-element techniques for failure analysis, simulations of microfracture in metal-matrix composites, fatigue analysis of cracked anisotropic plates under stochastic loading, mathematical modeling for the analysis of nonlinear aircraft dynamics, physical and mathematical modeling of wave propagation in the Ariane 5 VEB structure, partitioning based on symmetry transformations, an FEM approach to adaptive reliability assurance, and time-domain FEMs for the large rotational dynamics of multibody systems.
A probabilistic Low Cycle Fatigue (LCF) failure analysis of a candidate turbine disk for use in a turbopump of a rocket engine of the Space Shuttle Main Engine class is described. A state-of-the-art LCF failure prediction method was used in a Monte Carlo simulation to generate a distribution of failure lives. A stochastic Stress/Life (S/N) model was used for materials characterization. The LCF failure model expresses fatigue life as a function of stochastic parameters including environmental parameters, loads, material properties, structural parameters, and model specification errors. The rationale for the particular characterization of each stochastic input parameter is described. The results and interpretation of the failure analysis are given.
The rapid growth of hyperscale AI data centers is bringing renewed attention to the reliability risk that sustained forced oscillations pose to bulk power systems, with cyclic computational workloads emerging as a new forcing source. Unlike the broadband, stochastic disturbances from traditional industrial loads such as arc furnaces, AI training and inference facilities can inject large active power swings concentrated at specific frequencies over extended durations - characteristics that existing grid planning practices do not account for. While the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has recognized this gap and called for system-level studies of large load interconnections, no standardized methodology exists to screen, simulate, and quantify these risks at the planning stage. This report presents the Risk Assessment Tool for Large Load-induced Events (RATLLE), a Python-based, publicly available script suite developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate bulk power system reliability risks from data center-induced oscillations. RATLLE implements a three-module workflow: a screening module that identifies vulnerable interconnection locations and excitable system modes; a simulation module that models cyclic data center load behavior using a commercial positive sequence simulation platform; and an analysis module that computes risk metrics and generates interactive visualization dashboards. The risk metrics, formulated around simulation observables, map oscillation impacts to a three-stage severity scale spanning latent equipment fatigue through imminent cascading failure. The methodology is demonstrated on two Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system models: a publicly available 240-bus reduced representation and a detailed 2031 Heavy Winter planning case. Case studies illustrate that even modest 50 MW forced oscillations at resonant frequencies can produce wide-area power swings, N-1 security constraint violations, and cascading generator trips through protection actions - outcomes that would not occur under normal operating conditions without oscillations present. The results underscore the need for standardized oscillation impact assessment in large load interconnection studies and provide a reproducible, extensible framework for utilities to adopt or customize within their existing planning workflows.
Probabilistic Failure Assessment for Fatigue (PFAFAT) package of software utilizing probabilistic failure-assessment (PFA) methodology to model high- and low-cycle-fatigue modes of failure of structural components. Consists of nine programs. Three programs perform probabilistic fatigue analysis by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Other six used for generating random processes, characterizing fatigue-life data pertaining to materials, and processing outputs of computational simulations. Written in FORTRAN 77.
A probabilistic high cycle fatigue (HCF) failure analysis of a welded duct in a rocket engine of the Space Shuttle main engine class is described. A state-of-the-art HCF failure prediction method was used in a Monte Carlo simulation to generate a distribution of failure lives. A stochastic stress/life model is used for material characterization, and a composite stress history is generated for accurately deriving the stress cycles for the fatigue-damage calculations. The HCF failure model expresses fatigue life as a function of stochastic parameters including environment, loads, material properties, geometry, and model specification errors. A series of HCF failure life analyses were performed to study the impact of a fixed parameter and to assess the importance of each stochastic input parameter through marginal analyses.
The international Low Impact Docking System (iLIDS) provides a structural arrangement that allows for visiting vehicles to dock with the International Space Station (ISS) (Fig 1). The iLIDS docking units are mechanically joined together by a series of active and passive latch hooks. In order to preserve docking capability at the existing Russian docking interfaces, the iLIDS latch hooks are required to conform to the existing Russian design. The latch hooks are classified as being fail-safe. Since the latch hooks are fail-safe, the hooks are not fracture critical and a fatigue based service life assessment will satisfy the structural integrity requirements. Constant amplitude fatigue testing to failure on four sets of active/passive iLIDS latch hooks was performed at load magnitudes of 10, 11, and 12 kips. Failure analysis of the hook fatigue failures identified multi-site fatigue initiation that was effectively centered about the hook mid-plane (consistent with the 3D model results). The fatigue crack initiation distribution implies that the fatigue damage accumulation effectively results in a very low aspect ratio surface crack (which can be simulated as thru-thickness crack). Fatigue damage progression resulted in numerous close proximity fatigue crack initiation sites. It was not possible to determine if fatigue crack coalescence occurs during cyclic loading or as result of the fast fracture response. The presence of multiple fatigue crack initiation sites on different planes will result in the formation of ratchet marks as the cracks coalesce. Once the stable fatigue crack becomes unstable and the fast fracture advances across the remaining ligament and the plane stress condition at a free-surface will result in failure along a 45 deg. shear plane (slant fracture) and the resulting inclined edge is called a shear lip. The hook thickness on the plane of fatigue crack initiation is 0.787". The distance between the shear lips on this plane was on the order of 0.48" and it was effectively centered about the mid-plane of the section. The numerous ratchet marks between the shear lips on the fracture initiation plane are indicative of multiple fatigue initiation sites within this region. The distribution of the fatigue damage about the centerline of the hook is consistent with the analytical results that demonstrate peak stress/strain response at the mid-plane that decreases in the direction of the hook outer surfaces. Scanning electron microscope images of the failed sections detected fatigue crack striations in close proximity to the free surface of the hook radius. These findings were documented at three locations on the fracture surface : 1) adjacent to the left shear lip, 2) adjacent to the right shear lip, and 3) near the centerline of the section. The features of the titanium fracture surface did not allow for a determination of a critical crack size via identification of the region where the fatigue crack propagation became unstable. The fracture based service life projections where benchmarked with strain-life analyses. The strainrange response in the hook radius was defined via the correlated finite element models and the modified method of universal slopes was incorporated to define the strain-life equation for the titanium alloy. The strain-life assessment confirmed that the fracture based projections were reasonable for the loading range of interest. Based upon the analysis and component level fatigue test data a preliminary service life capability for the iLIDS active and passive hooks of 2 lifetimes is projected (includes a scatter factor of 4).
Probabilistic Failure Assessment for Fatigue and Flaw Propagation (PFAFAT II) package of software utilizing probabilistic failure-assessment (PFA) methodology to model flaw-propagation and low-cycle-fatigue modes of failure of structural components. Comprises one program for performing probabilistic crack-growth analysis and two programs for performing probabilistic low-cycle-fatigue analysis. These programs perform probabilistic fatigue and crack-propagation analysis by means of Monte Carlo simulation. PFAFAT II is extension of, rather than replacement for, PFAFAT software (NPO-18965). Written in FORTRAN 77.
Fatigue life prediction capabilities have been incorporated into the HyperSizer Composite Analysis and Structural Sizing Software. The fatigue damage model is introduced at the fiber/matrix constituent scale through HyperSizer s coupling with NASA s MAC/GMC micromechanics software. This enables prediction of the micro scale damage progression throughout stiffened and sandwich panels as a function of cycles leading ultimately to simulated panel failure. The fatigue model implementation uses a cycle jumping technique such that, rather than applying a specified number of additional cycles, a specified local damage increment is specified and the number of additional cycles to reach this damage increment is calculated. In this way, the effect of stress redistribution due to damage-induced stiffness change is captured, but the fatigue simulations remain computationally efficient. The model is compared to experimental fatigue life data for two composite facesheet/foam core sandwich panels, demonstrating very good agreement.
Work performed by Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) as part of an Independent Technical Assessment (ITA) for the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) is summarized. The ITA goal was to establish a flight rationale in light of a history of fatigue cracking due to flow induced vibrations in the feedline flowliners that supply liquid hydrogen to the space shuttle main engines. Prior deterministic analyses using worst-case assumptions predicted failure in a single flight. The current work formulated statistical models for dynamic loading and cryogenic fatigue crack growth properties, instead of using worst-case assumptions. Weight function solutions for bivariant stressing were developed to determine accurate crack "driving-forces". Monte Carlo simulations showed that low flowliner probabilities of failure (POF = 0.001 to 0.0001) are achievable, provided pre-flight inspections for cracks are performed with adequate probability of detection (POD)-specifically, 20/75 mils with 50%/99% POD. Measurements to confirm assumed POD curves are recommended. Since the computed POFs are very sensitive to the cyclic loads/stresses and the analysis of strain gage data revealed inconsistencies with the previous assumption of a single dominant vibrant mode, further work to reconcile this difference is recommended. It is possible that the unaccounted vibrational modes in the flight spectra could increase the computed POFs.
The research team proposed to develop innovative multi-scale models to predict corrosion and the resulting mechanical performances in aluminum-steel joints. The methods of joining considered are resistance spot welding, self-piercing riveting, and rivet-welding, all suitable for mass production applications. The multi-scale models integrate high throughput first-principle calculations based on density functional theory (DFT), high throughput calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD) modeling, and finite element method (FEM) simulations. These models are to be validated through laboratory experiments. Furthermore, the models are available as open source so as to enable scientists and engineers in the community to adapt and contribute to the development and application. The approaches rely on the research team’s extensive experience on the prediction of properties of individual phases at finite temperatures and variable compositions through DFT calculations, and our broad expertise on dissimilar material joining and their corrosion. The proposed computational framework enables high throughput computations for improved predictions of corrosion and the associated mechanical performance in dissimilar material joints, resulting in significant reduction in computational time needed by the current state-of-the-art methods. With the participation of researchers from three universities, an auto manufacturer, two manufacturing technology/equipment suppliers, and a software developer/vendor, the interdisciplinary research team applies the technical development on both phase-based modeling and laboratory experiments into the automobile body joining processes for validation and technology demonstration. The global cost of corrosion was estimated at about 3.4% of the global GDP in 2013. By using available corrosion control practices, it is estimated a saving between 15-35% of the cost of corrosion. In the U.S., more than $276 billion is spent repairing corrosion damage. Prediction of the corrosion and its impact on performance of the dissimilar material joints is critical for reducing the massive number of the current corrosion-based recalls for automobiles. Thus, the project goal is to develop models to enable predictive maintenance and end-of-life planning of multi-metal joints with risk of corrosion under different conditions such as exposure to high temperatures in summer and salt solutions in winter, quantified through its pH. An academia-industry consortium led by the University of Michigan and including Pennsylvania State University, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, University of Georgia, General Motors Company, Livermore Software Technology Corporation, and Optimal Process Technologies, LLC. created multi-scale models for prediction of corrosion in aluminum-steel joint structures such of them used in vehicle subassemblies – chassis and transmission systems. Starting from the first principle calculations, the team developed mathematical and data-driven models to predict the metallic components, which are formed during joining of two metals, for example aluminum and steel - a lightweight multilateral system which is currently used in more than 60% car bodies. These models were used for simulating chemical reactions that are happening when the joining metallic components are exposed to high temperatures and different pH values. The team was able to predict how the corrosion installs on the metallic components and how they lead to a sudden failure of components in cars. Newly developed machine learning algorithms combining Science, Technology, Engineering and Math disciplines, advanced finite element simulation and experimental validations have been integrated in a platform for prediction of the corrosion evolution and prediction the failure of joints under mechanical loadings and fatigue. Moreover, based on machine learning and inverse analysis, the team proposed solutions for designing new metallic alloys less susceptible to corrosion when joining multi-material assembles. An average of 4% error compared with experiments was achieved for the most common joints that are used in vehicle subassemblies.
Computational fluid dynamics simulations have been performed to study the applicability of engineering CFD methods for thermals striping analysis. Thermal striping is the fluctuating temperature profile in a solid caused by fluctuating fluid temperature, and the resulting fluctuating thermal stresses cause high cycle fatigue and eventual material failure. Here this study presents the methodology for thermal striping analysis that including a transient conjugate heat transfer RANS model and benchmark the results against a sodium triple jet experiment. The multiphysics calculations are implemented to analyze the thermal stresses in the solid domain caused by the coupled heat transfer between the fluid and solid domains. Validation data from a liquid sodium triple jet experiment include time-averaged temperature measurements and power spectra of the temperature signal. The numerical results agree well with these experimental measures, demonstrating key features such as the dominant frequency of temperature fluctuations. The applicability of a low-cost wall treatment method is demonstrated, enabling key computational savings. Finally, the performance of two finite element stress analysis software packages is compared, and the validity of the lower-cost method is confirmed. These results demonstrate the applicability of engineering methods for computational thermal striping calculations, enabling thermal striping estimations in large fluid systems such as the core of a Sodium-cooled nuclear reactor.
The mercury constitutive model predicting the strain and stress in the target vessel plays a central role in improving the lifetime prediction and future target designs of the mercury targets at the Spallation Neutron Source. We leverage the experiment strain data collected over multiple years to improve the mercury constitutive model through a combination of large scale simulations of the target behavior and the use of machine learning tools for parameter estimation. We present two interdisciplinary approaches for surrogate-based model calibration of expensive simulations using evolutionary neural networks and sparse polynomial expansions. The newly calibrated simulations achieve 7% average improvement on the prediction accuracy and 8% reduction in mean absolute error compared to previously reported reference parameters, with some individual sensors experiencing up to 30% improvement. The calibrated simulations can aid in fatigue analysis to estimate the mercury target lifetime, which reduces abrupt failure and saves tremendous amount of costs.
Gears used in current helicopters and turboprops are designed for light weight, high margins of safety, and high reliability. However, unexpected gear failures may occur even with adequate tooth design. To design an extremely safe system, the designer must ask and address the question, "What happens when a failure occurs?" With gear-tooth bending fatigue, tooth or rim fractures may occur. A crack that propagates through a rim will be catastrophic, leading to disengagement of the rotor or propeller, loss of an aircraft, and possible fatalities. This failure mode should be avoided. A crack that propagates through a tooth may or may not be catastrophic, depending on the design and operating conditions. Also, early warning of this failure mode may be possible because of advances in modern diagnostic systems. One concept proposed to address bending fatigue fracture from a safety aspect is a splittooth gear design. The prime objective of this design would be to control crack propagation in a desired direction such that at least half of the tooth would remain operational should a bending failure occur. A study at the NASA Lewis Research Center analytically validated the crack-propagation failsafe characteristics of a split-tooth gear. It used a specially developed three-dimensional crack analysis program that was based on boundary element modeling and principles of linear elastic fracture mechanics. Crack shapes as well as the crack-propagation life were predicted on the basis of the calculated stress intensity factors, mixed-mode crack-propagation trajectory theories, and fatigue crack-growth theories. The preceding figures show the effect of the location of initial cracks on crack propagation. Initial cracks in the fillet of the teeth produced stress intensity factors of greater magnitude (and thus, greater crack growth rates) than those in the root or groove areas of the teeth. Crack growth was simulated in a case study to evaluate crack-propagation paths. Tooth fracture was predicted from the crackgrowth simulation for an initial crack in the tooth fillet region. This was the desired failure mode for an ultrasafe design. Lastly, tooth loads on the uncracked mesh of the split-tooth design were up to five times greater than those on the cracked mesh if equal deflections of the cracked and uncracked teeth were considered. This effect needs to be considered in the design of a split-tooth configuration. This work was done in-house at Lewis in support of the National Rotorcraft Technology Center project, Ultra-Safe Gear Design, with the Boeing Defense and Space Group. The crack-propagation package was developed by the Cornell Fracture Group at Cornell University. The reported results, which are the initial findings of Lewis gear-crackpropagation research for the Rotorcraft Base Program, will be further investigated to develop generalized gear design guidelines.
A capability consisting of software development and experimental techniques has been developed and is described. The capability is integrated into GENOA-PFA to model polymer matrix composite (PMC) structures. The capability considers the physics and mechanics of composite materials and structure by integration of a hierarchical multilevel macro-scale (lamina, laminate, and structure) and micro scale (fiber, matrix, and interface) simulation analyses. The modeling involves (1) ply layering methodology utilizing FEM elements with through-the-thickness representation, (2) simulation of effects of material defects and conditions (e.g., voids, fiber waviness, and residual stress) on global static and cyclic fatigue strengths, (3) including material nonlinearities (by updating properties periodically) and geometrical nonlinearities (by Lagrangian updating), (4) simulating crack initiation. and growth to failure under static, cyclic, creep, and impact loads. (5) progressive fracture analysis to determine durability and damage tolerance. (6) identifying the percent contribution of various possible composite failure modes involved in critical damage events. and (7) determining sensitivities of failure modes to design parameters (e.g., fiber volume fraction, ply thickness, fiber orientation. and adhesive-bond thickness). GENOA-PFA progressive failure analysis is now ready for use to investigate the effects on structural responses to PMC material degradation from damage induced by static, cyclic (fatigue). creep, and impact loading in 2D/3D PMC structures subjected to hygrothermal environments. Its use will significantly facilitate targeting design parameter changes that will be most effective in reducing the probability of a given failure mode occurring.
Advanced environmental barrier coatings will play an increasingly important role in future gas turbine engines because of their ability to protect emerging light-weight SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composite (CMC) engine components, further raising engine operating temperatures and performance. Because the environmental barrier coating systems are critical to the performance, reliability and durability of these hot-section ceramic engine components, a prime-reliant coating system along with established life design methodology are required for the hot-section ceramic component insertion into engine service. In this paper, we have first summarized some observations of high temperature, high-heat-flux environmental degradation and failure mechanisms of environmental barrier coating systems in laboratory simulated engine environment tests. In particular, the coating surface cracking morphologies and associated subsequent delamination mechanisms under the engine level high-heat-flux, combustion steam, and mechanical creep and fatigue loading conditions will be discussed. The EBC compostion and archtechture improvements based on advanced high heat flux environmental testing, and the modeling advances based on the integrated Finite Element Analysis Micromechanics Analysis Code/Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (FEAMAC/CARES) program will also be highlighted. The stochastic progressive damage simulation successfully predicts mud flat damage pattern in EBCs on coated 3-D specimens, and a 2-D model of through-the-thickness cross-section. A 2-parameter Weibull distribution was assumed in characterizing the coating layer stochastic strength response and the formation of damage was therefore modeled. The damage initiation and coalescence into progressively smaller mudflat crack cells was demonstrated. A coating life prediction framework may be realized by examining the surface crack initiation and delamination propagation in conjunction with environmental degradation under high-heat-flux and environment load test conditions.
Reduced weight is a major design goal in aircraft power transmissions. Some gear designs incorporate thin rims to help meet this goal. Thin rims, however, may lead to bending fatigue cracks. These cracks may propagate through a gear tooth or into the gear rim. A crack that propagates through a tooth would probably not be catastrophic, and ample warning of a failure could be possible. On the other hand, a crack that propagates through the rim would be catastrophic. Such cracks could lead to disengagement of a rotor or propeller from an engine, loss of an aircraft, and fatalities. To help create and validate tools for the gear designer, the NASA Lewis Research Center performed in-house analytical and experimental studies to investigate the effect of rim thickness on gear-tooth crack propagation. Our goal was to determine whether cracks grew through gear teeth (benign failure mode) or through gear rims (catastrophic failure mode) for various rim thicknesses. In addition, we investigated the effect of rim thickness on crack propagation life. A finite-element-based computer program simulated gear-tooth crack propagation. The analysis used principles of linear elastic fracture mechanics, and quarter-point, triangular elements were used at the crack tip to represent the stress singularity. The program had an automated crack propagation option in which cracks were grown numerically via an automated remeshing scheme. Crack-tip stress-intensity factors were estimated to determine crack-propagation direction. Also, various fatigue crack growth models were used to estimate crack-propagation life. Experiments were performed in Lewis' Spur Gear Fatigue Rig to validate predicted crack propagation results. Gears with various backup ratios were tested to validate crack-path predictions. Also, test gears were installed with special crack-propagation gages in the tooth fillet region to measure bending-fatigue crack growth. From both predictions and tests, gears with backup ratios (rim thickness divided by tooth height) of 3.3 and 1.0 produced tooth fractures, whereas a backup ratio of 0.3 produced rim fractures. For a backup ratio of 0.5, the experiments produced rim fractures and the predictions produced both rim and tooth fractures, depending on the initial geometry of the crack. Good correlation between predicted and measured crack growth was achieved when the fatigue crack-closure concept was introduced into the analysis. As the gear rim thickness decreased, the compressive cyclic stress in the gear-tooth fillet region increased. This retarded crack growth and increased the number of crack-propagation cycles to failure.
Cross ply laminate behavior of Ti-15V-3Cr-3Al-3Sn (Ti-15-3) matrix reinforced with continuous silicon carbide fibers (SCS-6) subjected to a generic hypersonic flight profile was evaluated experimentally and analytically. Thermomechanical fatigue test techniques were developed to conduct a simulation of a generic hypersonic flight profile. A micromechanical analysis was used. The analysis predicts the stress-strain response of the laminate and of the constituents in each ply during thermal and mechanical cycling by using only constituent properties as input. The fiber was modeled using a thermo-viscoplastic constitutive relation. The fiber transverse modulus was reduced in the analysis to simulate the fiber matrix interface failure. Excellent correlation was found between measured and predicted laminate stress-strain response due to generic hypersonic flight profile when fiber debonding was modeled.