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DOE OSTI2026

A Methodology to Evaluate the Grid Reliability Impact of Oscillations Induced by Large Loads

The rapid growth of hyperscale AI data centers is bringing renewed attention to the reliability risk that sustained forced oscillations pose to bulk power systems, with cyclic computational workloads emerging as a new forcing source. Unlike the broadband, stochastic disturbances from traditional industrial loads such as arc furnaces, AI training and inference facilities can inject large active power swings concentrated at specific frequencies over extended durations - characteristics that existing grid planning practices do not account for. While the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has recognized this gap and called for system-level studies of large load interconnections, no standardized methodology exists to screen, simulate, and quantify these risks at the planning stage. This report presents the Risk Assessment Tool for Large Load-induced Events (RATLLE), a Python-based, publicly available script suite developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate bulk power system reliability risks from data center-induced oscillations. RATLLE implements a three-module workflow: a screening module that identifies vulnerable interconnection locations and excitable system modes; a simulation module that models cyclic data center load behavior using a commercial positive sequence simulation platform; and an analysis module that computes risk metrics and generates interactive visualization dashboards. The risk metrics, formulated around simulation observables, map oscillation impacts to a three-stage severity scale spanning latent equipment fatigue through imminent cascading failure. The methodology is demonstrated on two Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system models: a publicly available 240-bus reduced representation and a detailed 2031 Heavy Winter planning case. Case studies illustrate that even modest 50 MW forced oscillations at resonant frequencies can produce wide-area power swings, N-1 security constraint violations, and cascading generator trips through protection actions - outcomes that would not occur under normal operating conditions without oscillations present. The results underscore the need for standardized oscillation impact assessment in large load interconnection studies and provide a reproducible, extensible framework for utilities to adopt or customize within their existing planning workflows.

Biswas, Shuchismita↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Multi-Scale Computational Platform for Predictive Modeling of Corrosion in Al-Steel Joints (Final Report)

The research team proposed to develop innovative multi-scale models to predict corrosion and the resulting mechanical performances in aluminum-steel joints. The methods of joining considered are resistance spot welding, self-piercing riveting, and rivet-welding, all suitable for mass production applications. The multi-scale models integrate high throughput first-principle calculations based on density functional theory (DFT), high throughput calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD) modeling, and finite element method (FEM) simulations. These models are to be validated through laboratory experiments. Furthermore, the models are available as open source so as to enable scientists and engineers in the community to adapt and contribute to the development and application. The approaches rely on the research team’s extensive experience on the prediction of properties of individual phases at finite temperatures and variable compositions through DFT calculations, and our broad expertise on dissimilar material joining and their corrosion. The proposed computational framework enables high throughput computations for improved predictions of corrosion and the associated mechanical performance in dissimilar material joints, resulting in significant reduction in computational time needed by the current state-of-the-art methods. With the participation of researchers from three universities, an auto manufacturer, two manufacturing technology/equipment suppliers, and a software developer/vendor, the interdisciplinary research team applies the technical development on both phase-based modeling and laboratory experiments into the automobile body joining processes for validation and technology demonstration. The global cost of corrosion was estimated at about 3.4% of the global GDP in 2013. By using available corrosion control practices, it is estimated a saving between 15-35% of the cost of corrosion. In the U.S., more than $276 billion is spent repairing corrosion damage. Prediction of the corrosion and its impact on performance of the dissimilar material joints is critical for reducing the massive number of the current corrosion-based recalls for automobiles. Thus, the project goal is to develop models to enable predictive maintenance and end-of-life planning of multi-metal joints with risk of corrosion under different conditions such as exposure to high temperatures in summer and salt solutions in winter, quantified through its pH. An academia-industry consortium led by the University of Michigan and including Pennsylvania State University, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, University of Georgia, General Motors Company, Livermore Software Technology Corporation, and Optimal Process Technologies, LLC. created multi-scale models for prediction of corrosion in aluminum-steel joint structures such of them used in vehicle subassemblies – chassis and transmission systems. Starting from the first principle calculations, the team developed mathematical and data-driven models to predict the metallic components, which are formed during joining of two metals, for example aluminum and steel - a lightweight multilateral system which is currently used in more than 60% car bodies. These models were used for simulating chemical reactions that are happening when the joining metallic components are exposed to high temperatures and different pH values. The team was able to predict how the corrosion installs on the metallic components and how they lead to a sudden failure of components in cars. Newly developed machine learning algorithms combining Science, Technology, Engineering and Math disciplines, advanced finite element simulation and experimental validations have been integrated in a platform for prediction of the corrosion evolution and prediction the failure of joints under mechanical loadings and fatigue. Moreover, based on machine learning and inverse analysis, the team proposed solutions for designing new metallic alloys less susceptible to corrosion when joining multi-material assembles. An average of 4% error compared with experiments was achieved for the most common joints that are used in vehicle subassemblies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Thermal-striping analysis methodology for sodium-cooled reactor design

Computational fluid dynamics simulations have been performed to study the applicability of engineering CFD methods for thermals striping analysis. Thermal striping is the fluctuating temperature profile in a solid caused by fluctuating fluid temperature, and the resulting fluctuating thermal stresses cause high cycle fatigue and eventual material failure. Here this study presents the methodology for thermal striping analysis that including a transient conjugate heat transfer RANS model and benchmark the results against a sodium triple jet experiment. The multiphysics calculations are implemented to analyze the thermal stresses in the solid domain caused by the coupled heat transfer between the fluid and solid domains. Validation data from a liquid sodium triple jet experiment include time-averaged temperature measurements and power spectra of the temperature signal. The numerical results agree well with these experimental measures, demonstrating key features such as the dominant frequency of temperature fluctuations. The applicability of a low-cost wall treatment method is demonstrated, enabling key computational savings. Finally, the performance of two finite element stress analysis software packages is compared, and the validity of the lower-cost method is confirmed. These results demonstrate the applicability of engineering methods for computational thermal striping calculations, enabling thermal striping estimations in large fluid systems such as the core of a Sodium-cooled nuclear reactor.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model calibration of the liquid mercury spallation target using evolutionary neural networks and sparse polynomial expansions

The mercury constitutive model predicting the strain and stress in the target vessel plays a central role in improving the lifetime prediction and future target designs of the mercury targets at the Spallation Neutron Source. We leverage the experiment strain data collected over multiple years to improve the mercury constitutive model through a combination of large scale simulations of the target behavior and the use of machine learning tools for parameter estimation. We present two interdisciplinary approaches for surrogate-based model calibration of expensive simulations using evolutionary neural networks and sparse polynomial expansions. The newly calibrated simulations achieve 7% average improvement on the prediction accuracy and 8% reduction in mean absolute error compared to previously reported reference parameters, with some individual sensors experiencing up to 30% improvement. The calibrated simulations can aid in fatigue analysis to estimate the mercury target lifetime, which reduces abrupt failure and saves tremendous amount of costs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulation and Analysis on Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) subjected to Pressurized Thermal Shock (PTS) under SBLOCA scenario by using Cardinal to support the fracture mechanics analyses

The structural components that comprise nuclear reactors and their supporting structures are subjected to harsh operating environments that can challenge their integrity, especially after exposure for extended durations or under accident condition. As one of the most significant components of a Reactor, the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) is exposed to an aggressive environment during the operation time (e.g. more than 40 years). Ageing degradation mechanisms (e.g. thermos-fatigue) could grow initial defects up to a critical size, increasing the susceptibility to failure in the RPV. The conventional methods are mostly based on simple crack and structure geometries. Very limited studies consider the real conditions of the RPV subjected to a thermal shock due to a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). During a LOCA event, the most severe conditions take place when the emergency core cooling (ECC) water is injected inside the cold legs filled initially with hotter water and/or steam. The rapid cooling of the down-comer and the internal RPV surface followed probably by re-pressurization of the RPV causes large temperature gradients and variation of pressure which induces thermal-mechanical stresses. In order to develop the model for integrity assessment of a reactor pressure vessel (RPV) subjected to pressurized thermal shock (PTS), a multi-physics simulation, which includes the thermo-hydraulic, thermo-mechanical and fracture mechanics analyses is necessary. The multi-physics simulations are performed using Cardinal, a wrapping of the GPU-oriented spectral element Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code NekRS and other multi-physics sub-modules within the MOOSE framework. Cardinal now fully supports MOOSE stochastic perturbations of NekRS models with varying boundary conditions, initial conditions, material properties, and any other quantity which is defined by a kernel (such as coefficients in a momentum source model). The implementation is designed in a flexible manner so that scalar values are sent from MOOSE into a user scratch space in NekRS, which can then be applied for any purpose within the NekRS case files (both on the host and device). When modeling PTS, several factors can impact the results significantly. In this report, the impacts of the geometry of the model, Reynolds number and buoyancy effect are investigated. Two geometry, i.e., a simplified model and a realistic RPV model, with both laminar and turbulent flow condition are adopted for the PTS simulation with and without buoyancy effect. The purpose of the investigation is to understand the impact of these factors on the prediction of temperature history of RPV. The accurate prediction on the temperature evolution, which will be exported to Grizzly code for further analyses on the progression of aging mechanisms and their effects on the integrity of RPV structures, is very crucial. Based on the understanding of these factors, a more sophisticated model is built to analysis the PTS under SBLOCA scenario. A literature survey is conducted to pick the SBLOCA scenario for the multi-physics simulation. The analysis helps to explain the form and the transformation of the cold plum when the ECC is activated under SBLOCA. This model can be can be applied to study the PTS effect for different RPV configurations. The results can help to assess structural component degradation for advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Demonstration of CFD to support the coupled analysis of a reactor pressure vessel subjected to pressurized thermal shock

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Combined Computational and Mathematical Analysis of Interconnect Fatigue Potential in Photovoltaic Modules

A finite element model of a 60-cell monocrystalline silicon glass-polymer photovoltaic module was simulated with ±1.0 kPa and ±2.4 kPa loads applied to the glass to calculate the deformation under load. Cell-to-cell displacements were used to approximate interconnect strain and stress. A mathematical fatigue cycle life relation was fitted to data for the interconnect material (copper), to generate a life prediction at each interconnect location based on the local stress means, reversal extents, and amplitudes. Interconnect stress was found to be significantly asymmetric about zero despite symmetric positive and negative module loads due to laminate thickness offsets about the neutral plane and the effects of module framing. Cycle life results indicated that interconnect fatigue failure was unlikely to occur over a 30-year lifetime of conservative wind and snow load cycles since the typical cell design feature of leaving some unconstrained length between the cell edge and first solder pad increases the effective gauge length and decreases the stress levels below the material endurance limit. Follow-up analyses found that 3.6 mm and 6.4 mm were the minimum unconstrained lengths required to survive the assumed lifetime of wind and snow cycles, respectively, confirming that typical industrial module constructions with 8–15 mm unconstrained lengths should survive conservatively. Notably, large magnitude, low-cycle snow loading was consistently the limiting factor requiring a longer unconstrained interconnect length. Finally, insights and workflows from this study inform module interconnection design limits for survival against mechanical fatigue in deployment environments.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Compliant Intramedullary Stems for Joint Reconstruction

The longevity of current joint replacements is limited by aseptic loosening, which is the primary cause of non-infectious failure for hip, knee, and ankle arthroplasty. Aseptic loosening is typically caused either by osteolysis from particulate wear, or by high shear stresses at the bone-implant interface from over-constraint. Our objective was to demonstrate feasibility of a compliant intramedullary stem that eliminates over-constraint without generating particulate wear. The compliant stem is built around a compliant mechanism that permits rotation about a single axis. We first established several models to understand the relationship between mechanism geometry and implant performance under a given angular displacement and compressive load. We then used a neural network to identify a design space of geometries that would support an expected 100-year fatigue life inside the body. We additively manufactured one representative mechanism for each of three anatomic locations, and evaluated these prototypes on a KR-210 robot. The neural network predicts maximum stress and torsional stiffness with 2.69% and 4.08% error respectively, relative to finite element analysis data. We identified feasible design spaces for all three of the anatomic locations. Simulated peak stresses for the three stem prototypes were below the fatigue limit. Benchtop performance of all three prototypes was within design specifications. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of designing patient- and joint-specific compliant stems that address the root causes of aseptic loosening. Guided by these results, we expect the use of compliant intramedullary stems in joint reconstruction technology to increase implant lifetime.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Coupled loads analysis of a novel shared-mooring floating wind farm

Shared mooring lines are a method to reduce the stationkeeping cost of floating offshore wind farms; however, their impacts on floating array dynamics are not yet well understood. Here this article presents advancements to floating wind farm simulation capabilities that allow the dynamic modeling of shared-mooring floating wind arrays - specifically, platform coupling through shared lines and proper phasing of wave loads across the array. These capabilities are demonstrated on a 10-turbine shared-mooring array featuring two staggered rows of wind turbines. A baseline array design with individually moored turbines is used as a basis for comparison. Coupled analysis using FAST.Farm shows that the shared-mooring design has smaller fluctuations in surge when compared to the baseline design. The mean and maximum platform offsets are highest in normal operating conditions, but the maximum mooring line tensions are highest in 50-year storm conditions. Power spectral density analysis of platform surge and sway motions shows that the shared mooring configuration does not introduce any significant inter-platform resonances. The tower-base bending moment statistics and the line tension damage equivalent loads indicate no consequential differences in turbine loading or mooring fatigue life. Anchor load analysis shows that the total required anchor capacity for the shared-mooring array is decreased by approximately 25% when shared anchors are used. Dynamic simulations of the shared mooring system under line failures show that remaining line tensions stay within bounds and that offsets are significantly smaller when compared to the baseline design. Overall, the results show that shared moorings do not introduce any dynamic response concerns in this floating wind array design.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Hybrid AI/ML and Computational Mechanics Based Approach for Time-Series State and Fatigue Life Estimation of Nuclear Reactor Components

Environmental fatigue modeling is a complex problem due to multiple failure modes and their intermixing. The failure modes are function of various underlying causes in addition to the corrosive effect of reactor coolant environment. Some of the major causes are time-dependence of material associated with cyclic loading, load sequence effect associated with random/variable amplitude loading, effect of strain amplitude and rates, effect of varying temperature (along both temporal and spatial directions) and the effect of mean strain and stress. The nonlinear intermixing of failure modes associated with above mentioned causing parameters makes the environmental fatigue modeling is a challenging task. Because of this challenge, fatigue is traditionally being modeled based on experimental data. However, test based empirical approach often requires hundreds of fatigue tests to model the above-mentioned intermixing failure causes even for a single material system. The problem is further exaggerated for reactor component made from multi-material systems such as made from both carbon and stainless-steel base metals and their similar and dissimilar metal welds. With the difficulty of conducting hundreds of fatigue tests to capture the above-mentioned intermixing failure causes, fatigue modeling approaches often depends on empirical models based on limited available test data such as available through ASME code and NUREG 6909. However, these limited test-data-based models may not be enough to accurately predict the life of reactor components. Accurate prediction of life of reactor component would become a necessity, particularly when the license of the reactors to be extended for long-term-operation (LTO) that is for well beyond its original design life of 40 years. The requirement of extending the license of reactor under LTO requires hundreds of fatigue tests to be conducted to understand the mechanism associated with the above-mentioned interdependent failure causes. However, conducting large number of fatigue tests is not a feasibility due to the cost involved. To address this issues Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) with the sponsorship of DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program trying to develop a hybrid predictive modeling approach. This is based on limited experiment-data, Artificial-intelligence (AI) – Machine-Learning (ML) - Deep-Learning (DL) based techniques and Multiphysics-computational-mechanics based modeling tools. The hybrid approach not-only can improve the accuracy of the existing stress analysis and fatigue modeling approach but also can reduce the over-dependency on test-based approach. Towards this goal following are some of the major contributions based on ANL’s FY-20 environmental fatigue modeling activities: 1) A cyclic plasticity material model database for 82/182 dissimilar metal weld, which can be readily shared with US nuclear industry and regulatory agency on request. 2) A well validated analytical modeling methodology to perform cycle-by-cycle stress prediction under both constant amplitude fatigue loading and variable amplitude fatigue loading (with load-sequence effect). 3) An AI/ML/DL based methodology to predict unmeasurable cyclic strain based on other available sensor signals. This type of approach can be used for estimating strain in real reactor components from other sensor readings. 4) An AI/ML based approach to improve the US capability on environmental fatigue testing. This is by improving ANL’s existing environmental fatigue testing capacity to conduct ASME required strain-controlled tests (by controlling strain amplitudes and its rate), while not measuring the strain (due to the difficulty of placing an extensometer in a narrow autoclave in a PWR-water-test system). 5) A simulation and experiment based probabilistic modeling methodology for time-series fatigue state and life estimation of reactor metal such as dissimilar metal weld.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗