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Precise Measurement of Carbon Dioxide Column by Passive Ground Based Sensor

Over the past four years we have developed a family of differential radiometers based upon the Fabry-Perot interferometers that exhibit very great sensitivity to changes in the atmospheric column of carbon dioxide, oxygen, and water vapor. Our instruments employ a solid Fabry-Perot etalon that is tuned to the proper wavelength by changing its temperature. The thickness of the etalon has been selected so that its multiple pass bands align with regularly space absorption features of the molecule under investigation. Using multiple absorption features improves the optical throughput of the instrument and improves the stability of the instrument response with respect to environmental changes. We are presently working to extend this technique to the carbon 13 isotope of carbon dioxide and to methane. Our instruments are intrinsically rugged and can be fabricated in a small package at relatively low cost.. As such they hold promise for widespread use in ground based networks for calibration and validation of satellite instruments such as OCO and GOSAT. Results will be presented for long term ground based operations of these systems. The effects of atmospheric scattering, pointing errors, pressure broadening and temperature effects will be discussed with regard to achieving precision better than .5% required for validation of carbon dioxide column measured from space. Finally we will outline the approach for extension of this methodology to additional molecular species of interest.

Heaps, William S.↗

Advances in Hyperspectral Image Classification Methods for Vegetation and Agricultural Cropland Studies

Hyperspectral data are becoming more widely available via sensors on airborne and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platforms, as well as proximal platforms. While space-based hyperspectral data continue to be limited in availability, multiple spaceborne Earth-observing missions on traditional platforms are scheduled for launch, and companies are experimenting with small satellites for constellations to observe the Earth, as well as for planetary missions. Land cover mapping via classification is one of the most important applications of hyperspectral remote sensing and will increase in significance as time series of imagery are more readily available. However, while the narrow bands of hyperspectral data provide new opportunities for chemistry-based modeling and mapping, challenges remain. Hyperspectral data are high dimensional, and many bands are highly correlated or irrelevant for a given classification problem. For supervised classification methods, the quantity of training data is typically limited relative to the dimension of the input space. The resulting Hughes phenomenon, often referred to as the curse of dimensionality, increases potential for unstable parameter estimates, overfitting, and poor generalization of classifiers. This is particularly problematic for parametric approaches such as Gaussian maximum likelihood–based classifiers that have been the backbone of pixel-based multispectral classification methods. This issue has motivated investigation of alternatives, including regularization of the class covariance matrices, ensembles of weak classifiers, development of feature selection and extraction methods, adoption of nonparametric classifiers, and exploration of methods to exploit unlabeled samples via semi-supervised and active learning. Data sets are also quite large, motivating computationally efficient algorithms and implementations. This chapter provides an overview of the recent advances in classification methods for mapping vegetation using hyperspectral data. Three data sets that are used in the hyperspectral classification literature (e.g., Botswana Hyperion satellite data and AVIRIS airborne data over both Kennedy Space Center and Indian Pines) are described in Section 3.2 and used to illustrate methods described in the chapter. An additional high-resolution hyperspectral data set acquired by a SpecTIR sensor on an airborne platform over the Indian Pines area is included to exemplify the use of new deep learning approaches, and a multiplatform example of airborne hyperspectral data is provided to demonstrate transfer learning in hyperspectral image classification. Classical approaches for supervised and unsupervised feature selection and extraction are reviewed in Section 3.3. In particular, nonlinearities exhibited in hyperspectral imagery have motivated development of nonlinear feature extraction methods in manifold learning, which are outlined in Section 3.3.1.4. Spatial context is also important in classification of both natural vegetation with complex textural patterns and large agricultural fields with significant local variability within fields. Approaches to exploit spatial features at both the pixel level (e.g., co-occurrence–based texture and extended morphological attribute profiles [EMAPs]) and integration of segmentation approaches (e.g., HSeg) are discussed in this context in Section 3.3.2. Recently, classification methods that leverage nonparametric methods originating in the machine learning community have grown in popularity. An overview of both widely used and newly emerging approaches, including support vector machines (SVMs), Gaussian mixture models, and deep learning based on convolutional neural networks is provided in Section 3.4. Strategies to exploit unlabeled samples, including active learning and metric learning, which combine feature extraction and augmentation of the pool of training samples in an active learning framework, are outlined in Section 3.5. Integration of image segmentation with classification to accommodate spatial coherence typically observed in vegetation is also explored, including as an integrated active learning system. Exploitation of multisensor strategies for augmenting the pool of training samples is investigated via a transfer learning framework in Section 3.5.1.2. Finally, we look to the future, considering opportunities soon to be provided by new paradigms, as hyperspectral sensing is becoming common at multiple scales from ground-based and airborne autonomous vehicles to manned aircraft and space-based platforms.

Pasolli, Edoardo↗

Extension of a Kolmogorov Atmospheric Turbulence Model for Time-Based Simulation Implementation

The development of any super/hypersonic aircraft requires the interaction of a wide variety of technical disciplines to maximize vehicle performance. For flight and engine control system design and development on this class of vehicle, realistic mathematical simulation models of atmospheric turbulence, including winds and the varying thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere, are needed. A model which has been tentatively selected by a government/industry group of flight and engine/inlet controls representatives working on the High Speed Civil Transport is one based on the Kolmogorov spectrum function. This report compares the Dryden and Kolmogorov turbulence forms, and describes enhancements that add functionality to the selected Kolmogorov model. These added features are: an altitude variation of the eddy dissipation rate based on Dryden data, the mapping of the eddy dissipation rate database onto a regular latitude and longitude grid, a method to account for flight at large vehicle attitude angles, and a procedure for transitioning smoothly across turbulence segments.

McMinn, John D.↗

Automation of assertion testing - Grid and adaptive techniques

Assertions can be used to automate the process of testing software. Two methods for automating the generation of input test data are described in this paper. One method selects the input values of variables at regular intervals in a 'grid'. The other, adaptive testing, uses assertion violations as a measure of errors detected and generates new test cases based on test results. The important features of assertion testing are that: it can be used throughout the entire testing cycle; it provides automatic notification of error conditions; and it can be used with automatic input generation techniques which eliminate the subjectivity in choosing test data.

Andrews, D. M.↗

Pattern selection in solidification

Directional solidification of alloys produces a wide variety of cellular or lamellar structures which, depending upon growth conditions, may be reproducibly regular or may behave chaotically. It is not well understood how these patterns are selected and controlled or even whether there ever exist sharp selection mechanisms. A related phenomenon is the spatial propagation of a pattern into a system which has been caused to become unstable against pattern-forming deformations. This phenomenon has some features in common with the propagation of sidebranching modes in dendritic solidification. In a class of one-dimensional models, the nonlinear system can be shown to select the propagating mode in which the leading edge of the pattern is just marginally stable. This stability principle, when applicable, predicts both the speed of propagation and the geometrical characteristics of the pattern which forms behind the moving front. A boundary-layer model for fully two or three dimensional solidification problems appears to exhibit similar mathematical behavior.

Langer, J. S.↗

Coronas-F Orbit Monitoring and Re-Entry Prediction

Russian scientific satellite CORONAS-F was launched on July, 31, 2001. The object was inserted in near-circular orbit with the inclination 82.5deg and a mean altitude approx. 520 km. Due to the upper atmosphere drag CORONAS-F was permanently descended and as a result on December, 6, 2005 it has finished the earth-orbital flight, having lifetime in space approx. 4.5 years. The satellite structural features and its flight attitude control led to the significant variations of its ballistic coefficient during the flight. It was a cause of some specific difficulties in the fulfillment of the ballistic and navigation support of this space vehicle flight. Besides the main mission objective CORONAS-F also has been selected by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) as a target object for the next regular international re-entry test campaign on a program of surveillance and re-entry prediction for the hazard space objects within their de-orbiting phases. Spacecraft (S/C) CORONAS-F kept its working state right up to the end of the flight - down to the atmosphere entry. This fact enabled to realization of the additional research experiments, concerning with an estimation of the atmospheric density within the low earth orbits (LEO) of the artificial satellites, and made possible to continue track the S/C during final phase of its flight by means of Russian regular command & tracking system, used for it control. Thus there appeared a unique possibility of using for tracking S/C at its de-orbiting phase not only passive radar facilities, belonging to the space surveillance systems and traditionally used for support of the IADC re-entry test campaigns, but also more precise active trajectory radio-tracking facilities from the ground control complex (GCC) applied for this object. Under the corresponding decision of the Russian side such capability of additional high-precise tracking control of the CORONAS-F flight in this period of time has been implemented. The organizing of the CORONAS-F ballistic and navigational support (BNS) and solving its main tasks (such as S/C orbit determination (OD) and its motion prediction and connected with them) both for regular mission stage and for additional flight program were realized by the group of specialists from the Mission Control Center (MCC). MCC was also assigned as a principal organization from the Russian side for participation in the 7th IADC re-entry test campaign on CORONAS-F. The CORONAS-F flight features and space environments circumstances during its flight as well as a methodology and technology of spacecraft ballistic and navigational support are given below. The BNS results for different phases of S/C flight, including the results of its re-entry predictions, obtained during the realization of the 7th IADC test campaign are submitted. The accuracy of space vehicle re-entry prediction and its dependence on various factors are analyzed in more details.

Ivanov, N. M.↗

Psychoacoustic Testing of Modulated Blade Spacing for Main Rotors

Psychoacoustic testing of simulated helicopter main rotor noise is described, and the subjective results are presented. The objective of these tests was to evaluate the potential acoustic benefits of main rotors with modulated (uneven) blade spacing. Sound simulations were prepared for six main rotor configurations. A baseline 4-blade main rotor with regular blade spacing was based on the Bell Model 427 helicopter. A 5-blade main rotor with regular spacing was designed to approximate the performance of the 427, but at reduced tipspeed. Four modulated rotors - one with "optimum" spacing and three alternate configurations - were derived from the 5 bladed regular spacing rotor. The sounds were played to 2 subjects at a time, with care being taken in the speaker selection and placement to ensure that the sounds were identical for each subject. A total of 40 subjects participated. For each rotor configuration, the listeners were asked to evaluate the sounds in terms of noisiness. The test results indicate little to no "annoyance" benefit for the modulated blade spacing. In general, the subjects preferred the sound of the 5-blade regular spaced rotor over any of the modulated ones. A conclusion is that modulated blade spacing is not a promising design feature to reduce the annoyance for helicopter main rotors.

Edwards, Bryan↗

Assessing the Effects of Various Surface Textures and Features on Turbulent Heat Transfer in Hypersonic Flight

Experiments were conducted in the NASA Ames Hypervelocity Free Flight Aerodynamic Facility (ballistic range) to quantify the effects on turbulent convective heat transfer of distributed surface roughness, and of isolated features, representative of thermal protection systems on atmospheric entry vehicles. The surface textures and features were applied on the conic frusta of 45o sphere-cone models having a nose-to-base radius ratio of 0.5, similar to the forebody geometry of the Galileo and Pioneer-Venus entry probes. Test conditions were selected to provide turbulent roughness Reynolds numbers, k+, in the ranges expected for outer planet entry missions. Turbulent flow on the conic frustum was achieved by tripping the flow on the sphere-segment nose cap with distributed surface roughness, created by sand-blasting the nose cap. Surface textures included distributed, acreage, roughness, as well as cavity and groove discrete features. The majority of the data to be presented are results for distributed roughness, which includes both random, sand-grain-like roughness, and regular pattern roughness. The pattern roughness was designed to represent the roughness on woven thermal protection system materials, such as NASA’s 3-D Medium Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP), also known as HEEET, developed by the Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environments Technology project. The pattern roughness tested is a 3-D wavy surface, and includes three different roughness element height-to-spacing ratios representative of two configurations of 3MDCP, and spanning ratios measured both before, and after, ablation in an arc jet test facility. The patterns tested in the ballistic range were laser-etched on metal models, and represented an idealized version of the real-world materials in which each roughness element was nearly identical. Additional tests were performed wherein the laser-etched patterns were degraded by sand-blasting with various sized grit media, to produce regular patterns with superimposed irregular roughness, more representative of flight materials. Results of each will be compared. The discrete features tested included cylindrical cavities and rectangular grooves of various width-to-depth ratios. Cavities represent either heatshield damage, such as from micro-meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) damage, or from designed penetrations, such as on the Genesis sample return capsule. The grooves were scaled representations of seams between segments of HEEET material in a notional tiled thermal protection system. The tests examined the effects on turbulent heating downstream of the isolated features. The tests were conducted at speeds between 3 km/s and 4 km/s in air between 0.15 atm and 0.25 atm (Mach numbers between 9 and 12). Roughness Reynolds numbers, k+, ranged from 12 to 70 for the sand roughness, and as high as 200 for the pattern roughness. Boundary-layer parameters required for calculating k+ were evaluated using computational fluid dynamics simulations using the DPLR (Data Parallel Line Relaxation) code. Each model included both rough- and smooth-wall segments, and heat transfer augmentation factors were determined as the ratio of the rough-wall to smooth-wall heat flux measured on each test.

hypersonic↗

Harmonic structure of Pc 3-4 pulsations

Power spectra of magnetic pulsations observed at synchronous orbit by the ATS 6 satellite often show several spectral peaks simultaneously. Such pulsations, called harmonic events because of the nearly constant separation between successive peaks, are continuously observed in the dayside in the Pc 3-4 frequency range (6.6-100 mHz). The harmonic events are seen clearly only in the east-west magnetic field component. The spectral peaks are regularly spaced with a typical minimum separation of 14 mHz in the morning gradually decreasing to 10 mHz in the afternoon. In the dynamic spectra of harmonic events, the fundamental mode is usually absent. In addition, the relative amplitudes of the higher harmonics depend on the magnetic latitude. These observed features can be explained by a standing Alfven wave consisting of many discrete harmonic frequencies. A statistical analysis of power spectra demonstrates that at least 10-30% of Pc 3 pulsations can be classified as harmonic events. For a selected event on August 7, 1975, the plasma mass density at the synchronous orbit is estimated to be 3-8 hydrogen mass/cu cm.

Takahashi, K.↗

Experimental and Theoretical Investigations of the Solidification of Eutectic Al-Si Alloy

The eutectic alloys have a wide spectrum of applications due to their good castability and physical and mechanical properties. The interphase spacing resulting during solidification is an important microstructural feature that significantly influences the mechanical behavior of the material. Thus, knowledge of the evolution of the interphase spacing during solidification is necessary in order to properly design the solidification process and optimize the material properties. While the growth of regular eutectics is rather well understood, the irregular eutectics such as Al-Si or Fe-graphite exhibit undercoolings and lamellar spacings much larger than those theoretically predicted. Despite of a considerable amount of experimental and theoretical work a clear understanding of the true mechanism underlying the spacing selection in irregular eutectics is yet to be achieved. A new experimental study of the solidification of the eutectic Al-Si alloy will be reported in this paper. The measured interface undercoolings and lamellar spacing will be compared to those found in the literature in order to get more general information regarding the growth mechanism of irregular eutectics. A modification of the present theory of the eutectic growth is also proposed. The results of the modified mathematical model, accounting for a non-isothermal solid/liquid interface, will be compared to the experimental measurements.

Sen, S.↗

Relationship Between Intraseasonal Oscillation and Subtropical Wind Maxima Over the South Pacific Ocean

The significance of tropical heat sources on higher latitude jet streams has been examined by numerous investigators. Hurrell and Vincent (1990) provide a summary of many of these investigations in their observational case study of the relationship between tropical heating and subtropical wind maxima in the Southern Hemisphere during SOP-1, FGGE. They showed that the divergent outflow from tropical heating associated with the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), acted on by the coriolis force, was an important factor in maintaining the subtropical jet on the poleward side of the SPCZ during the period, 6-20 January 1979. They found a similar, but weaker relationship, over the southern Indian Ocean from 3-17 February 1979, a period when the SPCZ heating was greatly reduced and the jet was essentially non-existent. Since their findings were based on a case study and involved the use of the highly-specialized FGGE data set, the natural questions which arose were: (1) Is this relationship a regular feature of the circulation over the South Pacific? and, (2) If so, can it be detected with a routine data set? Another question posed by Hurrell and Vincent in their papers was:(3) How important was the intraseasonal oscillation in causing the enhanced heating and divergent outflow in the Pacific Ocean in January and southern Indian Ocean in February? The purpose of the present paper is to address the answer to these three questions. To accomplish this, some circulation features for an entire warm season in the Southern Hemisphere were examined. The year selected was 1984-85, and the warm season consisted of the 6-month period, 1 November 1984 - 30 April 1985. This period was chosen because there were numerous cases of the westerly wind maxima over the South Pacific and the intraseasonal oscillation was well documented.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗

Downscaling Satellite Precipitation with Emphasis on Extremes: A Variational 1-Norm Regularization in the Derivative Domain

The increasing availability of precipitation observations from space, e.g., from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the forthcoming Global Precipitation Measuring (GPM) Mission, has fueled renewed interest in developing frameworks for downscaling and multi-sensor data fusion that can handle large data sets in computationally efficient ways while optimally reproducing desired properties of the underlying rainfall fields. Of special interest is the reproduction of extreme precipitation intensities and gradients, as these are directly relevant to hazard prediction. In this paper, we present a new formalism for downscaling satellite precipitation observations, which explicitly allows for the preservation of some key geometrical and statistical properties of spatial precipitation. These include sharp intensity gradients (due to high-intensity regions embedded within lower-intensity areas), coherent spatial structures (due to regions of slowly varying rainfall),and thicker-than-Gaussian tails of precipitation gradients and intensities. Specifically, we pose the downscaling problem as a discrete inverse problem and solve it via a regularized variational approach (variational downscaling) where the regularization term is selected to impose the desired smoothness in the solution while allowing for some steep gradients(called 1-norm or total variation regularization). We demonstrate the duality between this geometrically inspired solution and its Bayesian statistical interpretation, which is equivalent to assuming a Laplace prior distribution for the precipitation intensities in the derivative (wavelet) space. When the observation operator is not known, we discuss the effect of its misspecification and explore a previously proposed dictionary-based sparse inverse downscaling methodology to indirectly learn the observation operator from a database of coincidental high- and low-resolution observations. The proposed method and ideas are illustrated in case studies featuring the downscaling of a hurricane precipitation field.

Hurricanes↗

Impact of Powder Variability on the Microstructure and Mechanical Behavior of Selective Laser Melted Alloy 718

Powder-bed additive manufacturing processes use fine powders to build parts layer-by-layer. Alloy 718 powder feedstocks for selective laser melting (SLM) additive manufacturing are produced commercially by both gas and rotary atomization and are available typically in the 10-45 or 15-45 microns size ranges. A comprehensive investigation was conducted to understand the impact of powder variability on the microstructure and mechanical behavior of SLM 718 heat treated to Aerospace Material Specification (AMS) 5664. This study included sixteen virgin powders and three once-recycled powders within the 10-45 and 15-45 microns size ranges that were obtained from seven direct source suppliers and one reseller. Although alike as highly regular spheroids, these powders showed distinct differences in composition (especially Al, C and N contents), particle size distributions, and powder features such as degree of agglomeration, fusion and surface roughness. Compositional differences expectedly had the strongest impact on microstructure. High N and C contents formed TiN-nitrides and/or (Nb,Ti,Mo)-C carbides on the grain boundaries, prevented recrystallization during heat treatment, and resulted in retained (001)-scalloped shaped grains that ranged from 19 to 41 microns in average size. In the absence of this particle pinning, the average grain size of the heat treated SLM 718 ranged from 51 microns to 90 microns. Room temperature tensile and high cycle fatigue (HCF) testing compared as-fabricated (AF) and low stress ground (LSG) surface conditions. Tensile testing revealed consistent behavior between the two surface conditions and amongst the powder lots. The finer grained SLM 718 builds displayed the lowest tensile properties. A SLM 718 build fabricated from a powder with eight times lower C content showed statistically better tensile properties presumably due to enhanced coarsening of (delta)-Ni3Nb precipitates. The specimens from once-recycled powders had slightly higher tensile strengths and slightly higher ductility compared to their virgin equivalents; once-recycling also did not substantially degrade the mean HCF life. The LSG fatigue lives agreed with conventionally manufactured 718 data, while AF lives exhibited a knock-down due to surface roughness. The fatigue lives of AF specimens were statistically equivalent across powder lots except for one and failures typically initiated at stress concentrators associated with SLM surface asperities. Fatigue testing of low stress ground specimens result in both transgranular and within facet crack initiations. More than half of the cracks initiated from these facets for the machined condition; however, these facets appeared to be within grains that were larger-than-average in size. A nitrogen-atomized powder with fine prior particles of TiN-nitrides and M(Ti,Nb,Mo)C carbides from atomization on powder surfaces resulted in the best fatigue performance with segregation of these particles to the SLM 718 grain boundaries leading to higher resistance to early-stage crack propagation. Typically the fine-grained builds with minor phases along the grain boundaries did not perform well in fatigue, whereas a larger-grain build with lower carbon content and coarser delta-Ni3Nb precipitates showed the next best HCF response. Further details of the build microstructure and its impact on tensile and fatigue behavior was considered.

laser deposition↗

A four-lidar view of Cirrus from the FIRE IFO: 27-28 October 1986

The four ground-based lidar systems that participated in the 1986 FIRE IFO were configured in a diamond-shaped array across central and southern Wisconsin. Data were generally collected in the zenith pointing mode, except for the Doppler lidar, which regularly operated in a scanning mode with intermittent zenith observations. As a component of the cirrus case study of 27 and 28 October 1986 selected for initial analysis, data collected by the remote sensor ensemble from 1600 (on the 27th) to 2400 UTC (on the 28th) is described and compared. In general, the cirrus studied on the 27th consisted of intermittent layers of thin and subvisual cirrus clouds. Particularly at Wausau, subvisual cirrus was detected from 11.0 to 11.5 km MSL, just below the tropopause. At lower levels, occasional cirrus clouds between approx. 8.0 to 9.5 km were detected from all ground sites. Preliminary analysis of the four-lidar dataset reveals the passage of surprisingly consistent cloud features across the experiment area. A variety of types and amounts of middle and high level clouds occurred, ranging from subvisual cirrus to deep cloud bands. It is expected that the ground-based lidar measurements from this case study, as well as the airborne observations, will provide an excellent data base for comparison to satellite observations.

Sassen, Kenneth↗

MinMap: An imaging spectrometer for high resolution compositional mapping of the Moon

MinMap has been selected by the Lunar Scout program to characterize and map the mineral composition of the Moon. The instrument will be built as a collaborative effort between Brown University, SETS Technology Inc., and Ball Aerospace Corp. MinMap is a visible to near-infrared imaging spectrometer that contains 192 spectral channels from 0.35-2.4 microns with signal to noise greater than 200 and 256 cross-track spatial elements. The spectrometer design has a 6 deg field of view (FOV) and utilizes grating dispersive elements and two dimensional detectors (no moving parts). An 'image cube' of data is produced that contains two dimensions of spatial information and one dimension of spectral information. All spectral channels and cross-track spatial elements are recorded simultaneously with spacecraft motion scanning the second spatial dimension. The high spectral resolution and continuous spectral range of MinMap are designed to measure the diagnostic absorption features of principal lunar minerals and their lithologic mixtures. Since the optical properties of lunar materials change in a regular manner upon exposure to the space environment, this spectral range is also quite sensitive to variations in exposure history (soil maturity). Nominal measurement stragegy is to obtain full global data of the Moon at 180 m/pixel from a 450 km polar orbit during the first month or two of operation. A 100 km orbit is anticipated for the remaining part of a 1 year mission allowing higher resolution data (approx. 80 m/pixel) to be obtained for targeted regions. MinMap exceeds LE x SWG's measurement recommendations and will provide the highest spatial resolution compositional map of lunar rocks and soils currently planned for orbital missions. Since all spectral channels are co-registered and obtained simultaneously, 'image cube' data swaths will be available for analysis almost immediately.

Pieters, C. M.↗

Global High Resolution Crustal Magnetic Field at the Surface of the Moon from Low-Altitude Lunar Prospector Magnetic Gradient Data

We derived new vector gradients based models of crustal magnetic field at the lunar surface with data from the Lunar Prospector (LP) satellite using two model parameterization approaches: a global set of 35820 1° spaced (~30 km) equal area monopoles at 20 km below the surface (O’Brien and Parker, 1994; Olsen et al., 2017) and combined results of subsets of 100000 0.66° spaced monopoles at the same depth. We use the scheme of iteratively reweighted least-squares inversion to compute the initial model. Then the amplitudes of these monopoles are determined by minimizing the misfit to the components together with the global average of |Br| at the ellipsoid surface (i.e. applying a L1 model regularization of Br). In previous approaches using vector fields for modeling, we found that external field contamination leads to spurious anomalies in the downward continued field models even with stringent data selection criteria and ad-hoc noise removal techniques (e.g., satellite’s position in the Moon’s wake w.r.t. the solar wind and in the Earth’s magnetotail, internal/external dipoles fields removal, low-order polynomial removal, joint equivalent source cross-validation technique and visually removing remaining anomalous segments). On the other hand, with the use of gradients-only data (along-track first finite differences), we were able to completely bypass the ad-hoc techniques. Similar processing of Kaguya magnetic data, which have only higher altitude coverage over the most of the Moon except in the region of the South Pole–Aitken (SPA) basin, completely misses some of the anomalies seen in the Lunar Prospector data. The combined Lunar Prospector and Kaguya gradient-based models also severely degrade the derivation of the anomaly fields in many regions. Euler analysis of isolated anomaly features from the Reiner Gamma swirl suggests top depths of about 0.3 to 1.5 km and center depths of 10-14 km; in the region between Stein and Vallier craters north of the SPA basin our analysis suggests top depths of around 1.5 km and center depths of 13-15 km. With the spectral depth determination techniques, the SPA basin region yields depths to the base of magnetization ranging between 15 and 40 km. Three-dimensional modeling and the bulk magnetization determinations of the sources constrained by the Euler and spectral methods is underway.

Gradient↗

Projections of Declining Surface-Water Availability for the Southwestern United States

16 of the CMIP5 models had all the data needed for this work for at least one simulation that was continuous from 1950 to 2040. Details of the models analyzed here are provided in Table S1. The model data analyzed here are available at http://strega.ldeo.columbia.edu:81/expert/home/.naomi/.AR5/.v2/.historical:rcp85/.mmm16/ a. Assessing the climatology of the models Despite increases in horizontal resolution of many models compared to their CMIP3 counterparts none of these models can adequately resolve the topography of the south west United States, such as the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains and the associated orographic precipitation. This requires that caution be used when interpreting the results presented here. To assess the ability of the models to simulate the current hydroclimate, in Figure S1 we show the observed (from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre gridded rain gauge data, (1)) monthly climatology of precipitation and the same for all the models and the multimodel mean for the California-Nevada, Colorado headwaters and Texas regions. The GPCC data uses rain gauges only and interpolates to regular grids of which we used the 1◦ by 1◦ one. Details of the data set can be found in (2). While the models apparently overestimate precipitation in California and Nevada the seasonal cycle with wet winters and dry summers is very well represented. It is also possible that the rain gauge observations are biased low by inadequately sampling the higher mountain regions. How ever the models might also be expected to underestimate orographic precipitation due to inadequate horizontal resolution. The 25 models are also too wet in the Colorado headwaters region but correctly represent the quite even distribution though the year. The bimodal distribution of precipitation in Texas, with peaks in May and September, and the absolute amounts, are well modeled but with the September peak too weak. The positive precipitation bias translates into a positive runoff bias for the Colorado headwaters as also shown in Figure S1. Here the observed runoff values are taken from simulations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface-hydrology model (3) forced by observed meteorology (5) that were conducted as part of the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 ( (NLDAS-2), http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/. Runoff for California-Nevada is better simulated but there is a positive bias over Texas despite no strong precipitation bias. To check whether regional climate models better simulate P and runoff in these regions we analyzed the historical simulation with the Regional Climate Model version 3 driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 available from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (http://www.narccap.ucar.edu). This model configuration retained these biases in P and runoff although they were reduced in amplitude. Given these varying biases we plot P and P − E changes in actual values but apply the simplest bias correction possible to the runoff and soil moisture values and show the modeled changes in terms of percentages of the 20th Century model climatologies. A thorough assessment of the simulation of North American climate in CMIP5 models is conducted in Sheffield at al. (North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part I: Evaluation of 20th Century Continental and Regional Climatology, manuscript submit ted to J. Climate, available at http://www.climate.noaa.gov/index.jsp?pg=./cpo pa/ mapp/cmip5 publications.html). Sheffield et al. analyze the climatology of precipitation, surface air temperature, low level winds, moisture fluxes, runoff etc. and conclude that the main features of the hydrological cycle, including characteristics of the atmospheric moisture balance and its seasonality, are captured in the CMP5 models subject to biases in total precipitation amounts. We chose to use all available models instead of selecting some and rejecting others based on an assessment of model realism. This is in accord with the suggestions of Mote et al. for CMIP3 (4) but future work needs to revisit this matter for the case of the CMIP5 ensemble.

Seager, Richard↗