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At least 19 records

Convincing Clients to Make Zero a Reality: Preprint

As buildings are the largest end-users of carbon-intensive energy in the United States, it is critical that design and construction professionals implement energy-efficient and sustainable building designs and systems. Building owners seeking building energy performance improvements, either with new construction or retrofit of existing facilities, usually need the expertise of design and construction professionals to guide them through the process. These "trusted advisers" make the design decisions that ultimately result in the energy performance of the building. Members of the design and construction community have identified that clients' perception of cost associated with such designs and building upgrades have posed the most significant barrier to increased adoption. If solved, this would enable design and construction firms to better engage as trusted advisors along the lines of energy and carbon reduction of the built environment. NREL has developed a resource that helps design and construction professionals and their clients match their projects with financial incentives. A newly developed cohort of design and construction professionals, as part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Better Buildings Initiative, has brought real-world project experiences to the development process, contributing meaningful insights that have been critical to evaluating the successes of and providing direction to this much needed financial guide.

Better Buildings↗

Accuracy of HVAC Load Predictions: Validation of EnergyPlus and DOE-2 using FLEXLAB Measurements

The aim of the project reported here was to better understand the level of accuracy of three building energy simulation (BES) engines (‘engines’) — EnergyPlus™, DOE-2.1e, and DOE-2.2 — by identifying and investigating significant deviations between the performance predicted by these engines and actual performance as measured in the FLEXLAB® test facility at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). The specific test conditions included some of those prescribed in ANSI/ASHRAE Standard 140 - Standard Method of Test for the Evaluation of Building Energy Analysis Computer Programs. Detailed measurements of FLEXLAB performance, including indoor temperatures and heat fluxes and air-flow and water flow rates and temperatures in the Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system, together with hourly weather data, were recorded and used in analyzing the simulation results from EnergyPlus v8.8, DOE-2.2 v3.65 and DOE-2.1e v127. These engines are commonly used in the United States for building energy code compliance, federal, state, and utility incentives programs, as well as energy efficient design of new buildings and energy retrofit of existing buildings. Seven conventional overhead mixing ventilation scenarios were tested and each engine was found to have a similar level of agreement with the measurements of space-level heating and sensible cooling loads. These results provide useful information regarding the accuracy of these engines in predicting the cooling and heating load elements of whole building energy performance. This information is intended for practitioners who are concerned about transitioning between simulation tools with different engines and for managers of utility programs leveraging these tools for evaluating and/or projecting measure savings to be incentivized under their programs. The results of the comparisons of simulated and measured performance indicate that the predictions from all three engines are not significantly different. The 24-hour average value of the absolute mean bias indicates the likely magnitude of the error in any particular case. The average mean bias is reduced by cancelation of overprediction in one case by underprediction in another. The daytime absolute mean biases, which may be more important for both energy performance and occupant comfort, are ~6%, presumably because of the greater complexity involved in simulating in the presence of solar radiation. EnergyPlus typically overpredicts the cooling load and/or underpredicts the heating load by ~1.5% and the DOE-2 engines typically underpredict the cooling load by approximately the same amount. The Root Mean Square Error is relatively more sensitive to shorter term variations in the difference between predicted and measured loads; the three engines have similar values, ~10%, suggesting that the uncertainties in their predictions of peak loads may also be similar in magnitude. The implication of these results is that users, both designers and program analysts, can use EnergyPlus, DOE-2.1e, or DOE-2.2 to model conventional commercial buildings equipped with overhead mixing ventilation with a similar level of confidence. Further work is required to better understand the variability in the level of agreement between the engine predictions and FLEXLAB measurements, where a particular engine will agree well with FLEXLAB in some cases and not so well in others and another engine will agree or disagree in different cases. As the sources of this variability are identified and eliminated or reduced significantly, it is recommended that the experimental capabilities and methods developed in the study reported here should be applied to validating heating and cooling load calculations for spaces with different types of furniture and miscellaneous loads. These methods should then be applied to low energy space conditioning systems in EnergyPlus including, in particular, radiant slab and radiant ceiling panel cooling and heating systems and ‘mixed mode’ systems that combine mechanical cooling and natural ventilation systems, focusing on controls, including control of thermal mass. The work reported here addresses the conventional method of heating and cooling occupied spaces; other methods, such as the use of radiant heating and cooling systems have the potential to provide equivalent occupant comfort, or better, with lower energy consumption. These systems are addressed more explicitly in EnergyPlus but there is a need for empirical validation to give users the same level of confidence in modeling these systems that they have, or should have, in modeling conventional systems, based on the results presented here.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Review of the U.S. Policies, Codes, and Standards of Zero-Carbon Buildings

The global issue of climate change has accelerated the international commitment to net-zero carbon emission development. Decarbonizing the building sector has been put on several governments’ sustainable development agendas. To provide a reference for decarbonizing the building sector, this paper summarizes the U.S. experience in zero-carbon buildings (ZCBs) from the aspects of policies, codes, and standards at the federal and local levels and those of professional societies. Based on the definition and boundaries of ZCBs, this paper introduces policies on building energy efficiency, electrification, on-site renewable energy deployment, and “buy clean”, illustrating highlights in building phases, energy systems, materials production, and fiscal incentives. The synergic efforts and coordination between federal and local levels and with professional societies are also introduced. Successful experiences in policy and standard implementation are summarized, including the systemic work of multilevel governance, clearly defined goals and stringent policies, constant upgrades of codes and standards, transparency in reporting and information sharing, and increased financial and investment opportunities. This paper provides concrete recommendations for developing zero-carbon building policies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Ambient energy for buildings: Beyond energy efficiency

The following Key Messages comprise the salient findings of this study: 1. Ambient energy (from sun, air, ground, and sky) can heat and cool buildings; provide hot water, ventilation and daylighting; dry clothes; and cook food. These services account for about three-quarters of building energy consumption and a third of total US demand. Biophilic design (direct and indirect connections with nature) is an intrinsic adjunct to ambient energy systems, and improves wellness and human performance. 2. The current strategy of electrification and energy efficiency for buildings will not meet our climate goals, because the transition to an all-renewable electric grid is too slow. Widespread adoption of ambient energy is needed. Solar-heated buildings also flatten the seasonal demand for electricity compared to all-electric buildings, reducing required production capacity and long-term energy storage. In addition, ambient-conditioned buildings improve resilience by remaining livable during power outages. 3. National policies, incentives, and marketing should be enacted to promote ambient energy use. Federal administrative priorities should reflect the importance of ambient energy for buildings. Use of ambient energy should be encouraged through existing and new building codes and standards. 4. Ambient energy system design tools are needed for architects, engineers, builders, building scientists, realtors, appraisers, and consumers. PVWatts is used over 100 million times per year for photovoltaic system design. A similar, simple, and accessible tool for ambient design is crucial. 5. Training on ambient energy is needed throughout secondary, post-secondary, and continuing education for workforce development. Currently, only about 10% of colleges teach courses on passive heating and cooling systems. 6. Ambient-conditioned buildings should be demonstrated in all US climate zones. Performance should be monitored and reported, with quantitative case studies made widely available. 7. While current technology is sufficient to build high-performance ambient buildings now, research is needed to develop new technologies to harness ambient energy more effectively and more economically. Such advancements will facilitate adoption of ambient energy technologies in a wider range of buildings, including retrofits. Examples include windows with much lower thermal losses, use of the building shell as thermal storage, alternative light-weight thermal storage systems, sky radiation cooling systems, automated controls for solar gains and passive cooling, and ground coupling.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Screening Tool for Equitable Adoption and Deployment of Solar (STEADy Solar)

The Screening Tool for Equitable Adoption and DeploYment of Solar (STEADy Solar) is a database and mapping tool designed to promoting clean energy investments for low-income communities across the United States. The tool indicates locations that may be eligible for the Investment Tax Credit bonus adders defined in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and combines this information with demographics, social vulnerability, solar technical potential, solar economics (modeled net present value), and building counts by use-type. It can be used by states, municipalities, community-based organizations, developers, and researchers to identify sites where solar projects may be economical and where federal incentives may be available to support equitable adoption of solar. Specific values include: Areas eligible for the Energy Communities Tax Credit Bonus Program (including brownfield site counts) Areas eligible for the Low Income Communities Bonus Credit Program (including Tribal Lands, and covered affordable housing project counts) Areas categorized as disadvantaged by Justice40 Commercial and Residential Solar economics characterized by the Net Present Value and Simple Payback Period Total Population, Race, and Ethnicity Median Household Income, Poverty rate, Household Tenure Social Vulnerability Count of buildings, developable rooftop solar capacity (in kWdc) and estimated annual generation potential (in kWh) on four building types: Government General Services, Government Emergency Response, Grade Schools, and Colleges/Universities. The linked report describes the STEADy dataset metadata and presents high level insights from the data. The downloadable and formatted excel dataset makes it easy for users to gain insights for their locations. Supporting .csv and shapefiles provide users with the full data to run their own analyses on equitable solar siting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

American Made Infrastructure: Evolution of Federal Incentives and Requirements

Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB) represent the latest evolution of a multi-year legislative trajectory responding to national security concerns about foreign control – and particularly FEOC control – of energy infrastructure. Beginning with Executive Order 14017 (February 2021), which initiated comprehensive federal review of critical supply chain vulnerabilities in semiconductors, battery energy storage systems, and critical minerals, policymakers have progressively expanded restrictions on foreign participation. The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) 2019 established precedent for component-level prohibitions on foreign information and communications technology procurement, while NDAA 2024 extended these restrictions to six major People’s Republic of China (PRC) battery manufacturers. Complementary measures such as the Build America, Buy America (BABA) Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) introduced domestic content thresholds and FEOC eligibility criteria for federal funding programs. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) 2022 further operationalized FEOC restrictions through electric vehicle tax credit requirements, creating a scalable framework for excluding foreign-controlled components. Recent executive actions and state-level policies have reinforced this trajectory, reflecting sustained alignment across federal and state governments. Collectively, these developments demonstrate a bipartisan policy approach that pairs incentives for advanced energy deployment with safeguards designed to prevent subsidizing adversaries or entities that present foreign-sourcing risk.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Decarbonization Considerations: Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings [Slides]

The Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) is helping federal agencies understand how to meet decarbonization goals with grid interactive efficient buildings (GEB). This training will provide attendees with an introduction to GEB, how to work with utilities, and opportunities for federal sites.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Locating Equitable Solar Opportunities by Census Tract: A Guide to the Screening Tool for Equitable Adoption and Deployment of Solar (STEADy Solar)

The Screening Tool for Equitable Adoption and DeploYment of Solar (STEADy Solar) is a database and mapping tool that indicates locations that may be eligible for the Investment Tax Credit bonus adders defined in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The tool combines publicly available information on demographics, solar technical potential, solar economics (modeled net present value), building counts by use-type, and eligibility for tax credit adders. It can be used by states, municipalities, community-based organizations, developers, and researchers to identify sites where solar projects may be economical and where federal incentives may be available to support equitable adoption of solar. This report describes the STEADy dataset and presents high level insights from the data.

census tract↗

System Retrofits in Efficiency Programs: Track Record and Outlook

Commercial building retrofits are often limited to simple upgrades of individual building components such as equipment or lamp replacements. These equipment- or component-level retrofits have been shown to have less potential for whole building energy savings (50% less in studied cases) compared to comprehensive system-based approaches. System retrofits with their potential for much greater savings are critical to achieving aggressive energy reduction goals in the existing building stock but to date there has been little deep analysis of the track record and trends for systems retrofits in commercial buildings. This paper addresses several questions: 1. To what extent are systems retrofits taking place in the building retrofit marketplace today? 2. Do current systems retrofits in fact save more energy than component retrofits? 3. What kinds of efficiency measures are currently most prevalent in system retrofits? 4. Does systems adoption vary across different retrofit programmatic approaches (e.g. utility incentive programs, federal retrofit programs, ESCOs)? Findings, based on an analysis of retrofit data from 12,000 projects across the U.S. from custom utility incentive programs, federal retrofit programs, and Energy Service Companies (ESCOs), indicate the state of the current market with respect to adoption of systems technologies. A wide range of stakeholders were also interviewed to define the challenges and opportunities for greater deployment. A range of barriers is presented including technical and structural (i.e. programmatic, policy), along with recommendations to accelerate deployment of these strategic approaches.

Regnier, Cynthia↗

Making a Water Data System Responsive to Information Needs of Decision Makers

Evidence-based environmental management requires data that are sufficient, accessible, useful and used. A mismatch between data, data systems, and data needs for decision making can result in inefficient and inequitable capital investments, resource allocations, environmental protection, hazard mitigation, and quality of life. In this paper, we examine the relationship between data and decision making in environmental management, with a focus on water management. We focus on the concept of decision-driven data systems —data systems that incorporate an assessment of decision-makers' data needs into their design. The aim of the research was to examine the process of translating data into effective decision making by engaging stakeholders in the development of a water data system. Using California's legislative mandate for state agencies to integrate existing water and other environmental data as a case study, we developed and applied a participatory approach to inform data-system design and identify unmet data needs. Using workshops and focused stakeholder meetings, we developed 20 diverse use cases to assess data sources, availability, characteristics, gaps, and other attributes of data used for representative decisions. Federal and state agencies made up about 90% of the data sources, and could readily adapt to a federated data system, our recommended model for the state. The remaining 10% of more-specialized data, central to important decisions across multiple use cases, would require additional investment or incentives to achieve data consistency, interoperability, and compatibility with a federated system. Based on this assessment, we propose a typology of different types of data limitations and gaps described by stakeholders. We also propose technical, governance, and stakeholder engagement evaluation criteria to guide planning and building environmental data systems. Data-system governance involving both producers and users of data was seen as essential to achieving workable standards, stable funding, convenient data availability, resilience to institutional change, and long-term buy-in by stakeholders. Our work provides a replicable lesson for using decision-maker and stakeholder engagement to shape the design of an environmental data system, and inform a technical design that addresses both user and producer needs.

Cantor, Alida↗

Long and Winding Road to Higher Efficiency-The RTU Story: Preprint

Rooftop units (RTUs) and other packaged heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) equipment consume more than four quads of energy annually while conditioning more than 50% of the commercial building floor area in the United States. Historically, these systems have low operating efficiencies and receive infrequent maintenance. In addition, the market has a low first cost, run-to-failure, like-for-like replacement mentality and has been slow to adopt change. This paper explores the broad market transformation that has resulted in higher efficiencies and tremendous energy savings. Although there are many factors in this market transformation, this paper highlights: research behind advancements in components and controls; adoption of an operational efficiency metric; raising the bar for high efficiency with the RTU Challenge; market barriers overcome through the Advanced RTU Campaign; upstream and midstream incentive programs and HVAC distribution networks; alignment of the market efficiency drivers of ASHRAE Standard 90.1, federal minimum efficiency standards, the ENERGY STAR® program, and the Consortium for Energy Efficiency's (CEE's) efficiency tiers. Measures of the market transformation include more than 50% increase in RTU efficiencies, more than 1 billion kWh saved and 160,000 RTUs upgraded with high-efficiency measures by the Advanced RTU Campaign partners, large increases of high-efficiency RTUs purchased through incentive programs, and the largest energy savings from any federal minimum standards action. Although these results are impressive, the market transformation is just beginning, and there remain exciting opportunities for improvements in equipment efficiencies and improved operating performance with advanced controls and fault detection and diagnostics.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

OpenET: Filling a Critical Data Gap in Water Management for the Western United States

The lack of consistent, accurate information on evapotranspiration (ET) and consumptive use of water by irrigated agriculture is one of the most important data gaps for water managers in the western United States (U.S.) and other arid agricultural regions globally. The ability to easily access information on ET is central to improving water budgets across the West, advancing the use of data-driven irrigation management strategies, and expanding incentive-driven conservation programs. Recent advances in remote sensing of ET have led to the development of multiple approaches for field-scale ET mapping that have been used for local and regional water resource management applications by U.S. state and federal agencies. The OpenET project is a community-driven effort that is building upon these advances to develop an operational system for generating and distributing ET data at a field scale using an ensemble of six well-established satellite-based approaches for mapping ET. Key objectives of OpenET include: Increasing access to remotely sensed ET data through a web-based data explorer and data services; supporting the use of ET data for a range of water resource management applications; and development of use cases and training resources for agricultural producers and water resource managers. Here we describe the OpenET framework, including the models used in the ensemble, the satellite, meteorological, and ancillary data inputs to the system, and the OpenET data visualization and access tools. We also summarize an extensive intercomparison and accuracy assessment conducted using ground measurements of ET from 139 flux tower sites instrumented with open path eddy covariance systems. Results calculated for 24 cropland sites from Phase I of the intercomparison and accuracy assessment demonstrate strong agreement between the satellite-driven ET models and the flux tower ET data. For the six models that have been evaluated to date (ALEXI/DisALEXI, eeMETRIC, geeSEBAL, PT-JPL, SIMS, and SSEBop) and the ensemble mean, the weighted average mean absolute error (MAE) values across all sites range from 13.6 to 21.6 mm/month at a monthly timestep, and 0.74 to 1.07 mm/day at a daily timestep. At seasonal time scales, for all but one of the models the weighted mean total ET is within ±8% of both the ensemble mean and the weighted mean total ET calculated from the flux tower data. Overall, the ensemble mean performs as well as any individual model across nearly all accuracy statistics for croplands, though some individual models may perform better for specific sites and regions. We conclude with three brief use cases to illustrate current applications and benefits of increased access to ET data, and discuss key lessons learned from the development of OpenET.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Public policy for solar heating and cooling

Recent analyses indicated that solar heating and cooling systems for residential buildings are nearly economically competitive with conventional fossil fuel or electric systems, the former having higher initial cost but a lower operating cost than the latter. The paper examines obstacles to the widespread acceptance and use of solar space conditioning systems and explores some general policies which could help to overcome them. The discussion covers such institutional barriers limiting the adoption of solar technologies as existing building codes, financing constraints, and organizational structure of the building industry. The potential impact of financial incentives is analyzed. It is noted that a tax incentive of 25% could speed the use of solar energy by 7 to 8 years and produce an 8% reduction in fossil fuel use by 1990. A preliminary incentive package which could be helpful in promoting solar energy both at federal and state levels is proposed, and the necessary incentive level is analysed.

Hirshberg, A. S.↗

Investment Tax Credit Requirements for Privately Owned Solar Photovoltaic Systems on Federal Sites

The federal investment tax credit (ITC) is an economically valuable tax incentive offered to taxable business entities that invest in certain energy technologies. The ITC is based on a percentage of the qualifying upfront capital costs of a project and directly reduces a business's tax liability (i.e., the taxes paid). This fact sheet focuses on ITC considerations for privately owned solar photovoltaic (PV) projects on federal land and buildings, although some of the considerations may be applicable to other technologies and non-federal entities.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Technology Acceptance Workshop Meeting Proceedings, April 20-29, 2022

The Renewable Energy Wildlife Institute and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory convened a virtual workshop facilitated by the Consensus Building Institute in April 2022 to identify recommendations on how to accelerate the rate of research and development, evaluation, and adoption of technologies for monitoring or minimizing wildlife impacts from wind energy. The workshop drew on expertise from stakeholder groups including technology developers, federal agencies, conservation nonprofits, and the wind industry. Over the course of four sessions, participants discussed incentives and barriers to technology development beginning with early field testing and validation, through full-scale experimental deployment, and finally broad-scale acceptance and commercial deployment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Scaling Equitable Finance

Driven by dramatic declines in up-front cost, the U.S. solar photovoltaics (PV) industry has taken off over the past decade, growing from 1 gigawatt of installed capacity in 2009 to 89 gigawatts in 2020—or enough capacity to power roughly 19 million homes. The industry is expected to double in size over just the next 5 years.1 Much of the growth has been driven by large, utility-scale projects that can produce 5 mega- watts or more of power—enough to power at least 1,000 homes. The cost of electricity produced by these projects has decreased by more than 70 percent since 2010. As of Q3 2020, development costs of large, util- ity-scale solar PV power plants were under $1 per watt, down by more than 70 percent from 2010.2 A robust array of investors has come forward to efficiently deliver capital to these kinds of utility-scale projects including large banks, insurance companies, pension funds, and others. But low- and moderate-income communities, including communities of color, are at risk of being left behind in the transition to clean energy. Mission- driven solar project developers and financial institu- tions have been working alongside energy justice advocates to open up solar access for these communi- ties, using strategies ranging from community solar, to solar installations on affordable multifamily housing, to distributed solar and storage programs, and more. Their goals go beyond simply generating more green energy to advancing social equity by: • empowering communities to control their energy future • stabilizing energy prices, saving money, and build- ing wealth for low-income families • creating quality jobs • improving health by reducing pollution • providing energy resilience for vulnerable communities Mission-driven actors are successfully deploying a wide variety of strategies to meet these goals, from helping low-income homeowners get solar—and some- times battery storage, to developing solar projects serv- ing affordable rental housing and community facilities, to building larger “shared solar” projects to which households from across the community can subscribe. However, the financing ecosystem does not work nearly as well for these “mission driven” solar proj- ects as it does for utility-scale projects. For home rooftop solar, even if low-income consumers have a home and suitable roof, they may fail to qualify for federal tax incentives, lack adequate credit to qualify for a loan—or the mission-driven lenders seeking to serve them may not be adequately capitalized to make long-term loans. For mission-driven commercial or community-scale projects, assembling nearly every component of the project capital stack—whether bridging early-stage costs, attracting tax credit equity investors, securing long-term debt, or coming up with sponsor equity and filling gaps—can present challenges. A variety of obstacles contribute to the scarcity of financing for low-income solar, including small project sizes, lack of developer balance sheet capacity, both real and perceived issues with credit risk, elevated technical assistance needs, and greater subsidy requirements to pursue goals such as deep energy affordability, climate resilience, or job creation. Still other obstacles are regulatory: for example, not all states allow community solar projects or Power Purchase Agreements, common strategies used for providing low-income solar—and the potential for regulations to shift over time creates risks that mission-driven projects can ill afford. This report synthesizes information garnered from 47 key informant interviews, four focus group discus- sions involving 60 stakeholders, and a review of the substantial existing literature on low-income solar finance to assess the current landscape of mission- driven solar development in the United States, examine the roles that community-based financial institutions could play, and recommend public invest- ments and policy changes that could help to scale the provision of equitable solar finance. Key recommen- dations for policymakers and funders in the renew- able energy and community development fields that emerge from this process include the following: • Help to capitalize and support community-based lenders to provide flexible, low-cost, and long- term financing to mission-driven solar projects— including providing guarantees or other forms of credit enhancement. • Provide federal support for equitable solar, including a grant-in-lieu-of-credits option for the Investment Tax Credit to improve access to this critical government subsidy. • Develop pools of government and philanthropic support that can complement financing from community-based lenders to complete the capi- tal stack for mission-driven projects, as well as to support education and technical assistance to both consumers and potential project sponsors. • Create a national Renewable Energy Credits pro- gram that includes social equity targets to provide a baseline of support for clean energy generation. • Change utility regulations to remove barriers to low-income solar projects; lower permitting costs; provide greater certainty for developers, consumers and owners; and measure progress toward equity in renewable energy policy implementation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, commonly referred to as the 'Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL),' collectively represent the largest commitment of the U.S. Federal Government to invest in the modernization and decarbonization of the U.S. energy system. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that total support for the broad range of climate and clean energy programs, tax credits, and other incentives authorized through the two laws will exceed $430 billion from 2022 through 2031 (CRS 2022; CBO 2021, 2022). While the climate and clean energy provisions are numerous and have the potential to impact all aspects of the U.S. energy system from fuel and electricity production to final consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings, the provisions relevant to the electricity sector - in particular the suite of tax credits for clean generation, storage, and carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) capture and storage - are expected to be some of the most consequential in terms of emissions reduction and clean energy deployment (Larsen et al. 2022; Jenkins, Mayfield, et al. 2022; Mahajan et al. 2022; Zhao et al. 2022). In this report, we detail the methods and results of a study estimating the potential impacts of key provisions of IRA and BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from present day through 2030. The analysis employs an advanced power system planning model, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), to evaluate how major provisions from both laws impact investment in and operation of utility-scale generation, storage, and transmission, and, in turn, how those changes impact power system costs, emissions, and climate and health damages. While not exhaustive in capturing every provision, the analysis estimates the possible scale of power-sector impacts that could result from the modeled provisions in IRA and BIL. The study is structured around two scenarios to evaluate the potential impacts of both laws on the power sector: 1) No New Policy: A counter-factual scenario that reflects all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, with exception to IRA and BIL, and assumes load growth consistent with the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO22) Reference case (EIA 2022a); 2) IRA-BIL: A scenario reflecting all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, including key IRA and BIL provisions, most notably the investment and production tax credits for zero-carbon emitting electricity generation and storage (ITC and PTC), the tax credit for CO 2 capture and storage (45Q), and the tax credit for existing nuclear plants (described further in Section 2.3). To account for the impacts of IRA and BIL on electrification, assumes increased load growth consistent with a scaled version of the Medium Electrification scenario from the Electrification Futures Study (Mai et al. 2018). These scenarios are simulated across seven sets of assumptions with varying projected future electricity market conditions, including technology costs and performance, natural gas prices, and the degree of availability, feasibility, and cost of development of renewable resources, electricity transmission, and CO 2 pipeline, injection, and storage infrastructure. In addition, we simulate two sensitivities on the 'policy' treatment in which we vary key assumptions pertaining to the realized value of the clean electricity ITC and PTC: 1) the cost of monetization of tax credits, and 2) the level of bonus crediting realized by project developers. We demonstrate that IRA and BIL have the collective potential to drive substantial growth in clean electricity by 2030, while reducing costs for consumers, mitigating climate change, and decreasing the human health impacts of power sector emissions. However, we also demonstrate that if expected cost improvements of clean technologies are not realized and/or constraints on deployment driven by factors such as supply-chain challenges, regulatory hurdles, and the social acceptability of energy infrastructure development limit the rate of clean energy and associated infrastructure deployment (such as transmission), then the share of clean generation achieved and the associated emissions benefits realized may be substantively reduced.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

New energy technologies for buildings

The principal objective of the present work is to identify a variety of strategic approaches which could significantly enhance the rate of commercial development and deployment of total energy systems, fuel cells, and solar conversion. Emphasis is on the need for integration of research, conference, legislation, federal program, and industrial program aspects, leading to a fruitful feedback and follow-through process involving new energy technologies. The discussions are on a general, lay level. Recommendations made feature (1) action which improves the environment for innovation and change, (2) action which decreases risk and creates positive incentives, and (3) action which reflects the distance a particular technology is from commercialization and widespread use, as determined by its position on a development/diffusion scale.

Schoen, R.↗