Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “financial assumptions”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

VentureStar(trademark) Reaping the Benefits of the X-33 Program

Major X-33 flight hardware has been delivered, and assembly of the vehicle is well underway in anticipation of its flight test program commencing in the summer of 1999. Attention has now turned to the operational VentureStar(trademark), the first single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) reusable launch vehicle. Activities are grouped under two broad categories: (1) vehicle development and (2) market/business planning, each of which is discussed. The mission concept is presented for direct payload delivery to the International Space Station and to low Earth orbit, as well as payload delivery with an upper stage to Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO) and other high energy orbits. System requirements include flight segment and ground segment. Vehicle system sizing and design status is provided including the application of X-33 traceability and lessons learned. Technology applications to the VentureStar(trademark) are described including the structure, propellant tanks, thermal protection system, aerodynamics, subsystems, payload bay and propulsion. Developing a market driven low cost launch services system for the 21 st Century requires traditional and non-traditional ways of being able to forecast the evolution of the potential market. The challenge is balancing both the technical and financial assumptions of the market. This involves the need to provide a capability to meet market segments that in some cases are very speculative, while at the same time providing the financial community with a credible revenue stream.

Sumrall, J.↗

Assessment and comparison of 100-MW coal gasification phosphoric acid fuel cell power plants

One of the advantages of fuel cell (FC) power plants is fuel versatility. With changes only in the fuel processor, the power plant will be able to accept a variety of fuels. This study was performed to design process diagrams, evaluate performance, and to estimate cost of 100 MW coal gasifier (CG)/phosphoric acid fuel cell (PAFC) power plant systems utilizing coal, which is the largest single potential source of alternate hydrocarbon liquids and gases in the United States, as the fuel. Results of this study will identify the most promising integrated CG/PAFC design and its near-optimal operating conditions. The comparison is based on the performance and cost of electricity which is calculated under consistent financial assumptions.

Lu, Cheng-Yi↗

The value of residential photovoltaic systems: A comprehensive assessment

Utility-interactive photovoltaic (PV) arrays on residential rooftops appear to be a potentially attractive, large-scale application of PV technology. Results of a comprehensive assessment of the value (i.e., break-even cost) of utility-grid connected residential photovoltaic power systems under a variety of technological and economic assumptions are presented. A wide range of allowable PV system costs are calculated for small (4.34 kW (p) sub ac) residential PV systems in various locales across the United States. Primary factor in this variation are differences in local weather conditions, utility-specific electric generation capacity, fuel types, and customer-load profiles that effect purchase and sell-back rates, and non-uniform state tax considerations. Additional results from this analysis are: locations having the highest insolation values are not necessary the most economically attractive sites; residential PV systems connected in parallel to the utility demonstrate high percentages of energy sold back to the grid, and owner financial and tax assumptions cause large variations in break-even costs. Significant cost reduction and aggressive resolution of potential institutional impediments (e.g., liability, standards, metering, and technical integration) are required for a residential PV marker to become a major electric-grid-connected energy-generation source.

Borden, C. S.↗

Launch vouchers for space science research

Recent national space policy proposes the use of space transportation vouchers to increase opportunities for space-based science research and to support the U.S. space transportation industry. Vouchers issued and financially backed by the government would be given to researchers for redemption on any mode of space transportation. This paper examines the economic costs and benefits of vouchers; incentive-based strategies for effective program design; and areas where the voucher scheme is weak. It is concluded that, under plausible assumptions, vouchers may well be a cost-effective way to achieve near-term space transportation for space research payloads.

Macauley, Molly K.↗

Fleet retrofit report

Flight tests are evaluated of an avionics system which aids the pilot in making two-segment approaches for noise abatement. The implications are discussed of equipping United's fleet of Boeing 727-200 aircraft with two-segment avionics for use down to Category 2 weather operating minima. The experience is reported of incorporating two-segment approach avionics systems on two different aircraft. The cost of installing dual two-segment approach systems is estimated to be $37,015 per aircraft, including parts, labor, and spares. This is based on the assumption that incremental out-of-service and training costs could be minimized by incorporating the system at airframe overhaul cycle and including training in regular recurrent training. Accelerating the modification schedule could add up to 50 percent to the modification costs. Recurring costs of maintenance of the installation are estimated to be of about the same magnitude as the potential recurrent financial benefits due to fuel savings.

Source record↗

Functional Volume Assessment of an Early Version of the Mars Transit Habitat

During the summer of 2020, the NASA Mars Architecture Team (MAT) conducted a functional volume assessment of the Transit Habitat (TH). The TH has evolved substantially since that time and the current TH does not share the same internal configuration, but the insights gained from the assessment remain relevant. In virtually all architectures involving chemical, electric, or nuclear propulsion, the majority of the crew mission is spent aboard the TH. The Earth to Mars transit durations may vary from architecture to architecture, but all are on the order of hundreds of days, regardless of whether an opposition or conjunction class trajectory is selected, and regardless of whether the propulsion system is chemical, electric, or nuclear. Thus, the TH must provide capabilities appropriate to a very long duration. So, despite significant changes in the current Mars architecture over the past few years, this evaluation still provides useful recommendations in the form of habitability guidance that can be applied to current and future TH concepts. This assessment had six primary objectives: provide a sanity check to the BOC-derived TH layout; understand if we can fit the hardware and functional tasks in the volume; provide a high-level assessment of how aggressive the layout is; generate a list of challenges or assumptions necessary to make it work; generate a list of future work to refine understanding; and identify proposed requirements. All of this information is critical to drive habitat sizing studies and key architecture decisions. It was clear that a human-in-the-loop (HITL) evaluation of some kind would be necessary, but several challenges were immediately identified. The most information could be gleaned from a Desert Research and Technology Studies (DRATS) type of mission operations test (MOT), but the TH concept was too low fidelity to construct the type of prototype necessary to conduct a MOT, nor were their financial resources to do so. The next best option – and really the one most appropriate for the BOC’s stage of maturity – is a Virtual Reality (VR) walk-through evaluation. However, NASA was in a shutdown state due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the VR labs were inaccessible. As a result, a tabletop evaluation was created, using .jpg imagery from the ECM CAD model along with Excel-based datasheets. High-level crew living and working functions within the habitat were identified for evaluation. Questionnaires using Likert scales assessed acceptability of habitat functions and sim quality – the degree to which the function was represented in CAD. This enabled the evaluation to be conducted by personnel working remotely. Each function was evaluated individually along with several overarching habitability parameters and vehicle subsystems. The results of this evaluation are discussed, including methodological challenges and rating challenges. Acceptability results are discussed for functions that the participants were able to rate and participant comments for functions that could not be related are also described. Final conclusions are described, including challenges or assumptions needed to make the TH design acceptable, future work needed to refine understanding of the TH, and proposed habitat requirements based on test data.

Transit Habitat↗

The Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model with an Application to a Geothermal Reservoir at Heber, California

A financial accounting model that incorporates physical and institutional uncertainties was developed for geothermal projects. Among the uncertainties it can handle are well depth, flow rate, fluid temperature, and permit and construction times. The outputs of the model are cumulative probability distributions of financial measures such as capital cost, levelized cost, and profit. These outputs are well suited for use in an investment decision incorporating risk. The model has the powerful feature that conditional probability distribution can be used to account for correlations among any of the input variables. The model has been applied to a geothermal reservoir at Heber, California, for a 45-MW binary electric plant. Under the assumptions made, the reservoir appears to be economically viable.

Orren, L. H.↗

Highly Reusable Space Transportation System Concept Evaluation (The Argus Launch Vehicle)

This paper summarizes the results of a conceptual design study that was performed in support of NASA's recent Highly Reusable Space Transportation study. The Argus concept uses a Maglifter magnetic-levitation sled launch assist system to accelerate it to a takeoff ground speed of 800 fps on its way to delivering a payload of 20,000 lb. to low earth orbit. Main propulsion is provided by two supercharged ejector rocket engines. The vehicle is autonomous and is fully reusable. A conceptual design exercise determined the vehicle gross weight to be approximately 597,250 lb. and the dry weight to be 75,500 lb. Aggressive weight and operations cost assumptions were used throughout the design process consistent with a second-generation reusable system that might be deployed in 10-15 years. Drawings, geometry, and weight of the concept are included. Preliminary development, production, and operations costs along with a business scenario assuming a price-elastic payload market are also included. A fleet of three Argus launch vehicles flying a total of 149 flights per year is shown to have a financial internal rate of return of 28%. At $169/lb., the recurring cost of Argus is shown to meet the study goal of $100/lb.-$200/lb., but optimum market price results in only a factor of two to five reduction compared to today's launch systems.

Olds, John R.↗

Evaluating the Feasibility of Data Simulation for Radiation Research: Estimating RBE Values for HZE Radiation

As the drive for deep space exploration intensifies, a comprehensive understanding of the health effects of radiation exposure becomes paramount to the future of human space flight. However, epidemiological data for radiation exposure, particularly to high-energy (HZE) ions, is limited, partially due to the financial and logistical costs of radiation studies. As an alternative, this study aims to assess the viability of data simulation strategies to accurately model potential study parameters prior to utilizing laboratory conditions. This study estimates a relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factor based on the solid tumor data for outbred mice provided by Edmundson et al. 2020. Excess relative risk (ERR) models for HZE-Fe ions and gamma radiation were estimated using Poisson regression with Weibull models to represent the background solid tumor hazard without radiation. RBE values were calculated from the ratio of the heavy ion linear slope to the gamma linear slope. The parameters from these models were then applied to simulate iterations of 300 datasets across HZE-Fe doses of 0.05, 0.2, 0.4, and 0.75 Gy; gamma radiation doses of 0.75, 2, and 3 Gy, as well as an unirradiated control group. Sample size per dose varied from 100-500 mice across simulations (800-4000 mice total per dataset). 1500 datasets were generated total (300 each for sample sizes 800, 1600, 3200, and 4000). For each dataset, ERR per radiation type and RBE for HZE-Fe were calculated. The RBE from the Edmondson data was calculated to be 5.55. The RBEs from the simulated data converged around this value across the increasing sample sizes. For n = 4000, the mean RBE across the 300 datasets was 5.71 (95% CI: 5.47-5.95). These results suggest that RBEs calculated from simulated data are credible. Based on this exploration, data simulation is a viable method of testing radiation studies. It provides a method of testing study assumptions and refining research questions prior to embarking on costly laboratory experiments.

Sneha Mehta↗